来源：智昇财论 #黄金原油收跌# 黄金方面：货币宽松开启以来，美联储已经降息五次，累计降息150个基点。在通胀和就业之间，美联 储官员们对12月降息的分歧仍然存在，这种分歧不仅影响下周能否再次降息，也关系到未来的政策走 向。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也承认了，官员们的争论核心，是经济需要更多刺激来支撑就业市场，而通 胀仍然高于目标以及关税可能进一步推高物价，导致经济可能出现滞胀。在此背景下，近期的黄金趋势 性较弱，价格出现宽幅震荡的态势。 智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，短期回调改变了市场上行结构，价格可能出现宽幅震荡。 技术面：昨日收阴线，市场在次级低点4250美元附近徘徊，价格在布林线上轨附近受到压制。1小时级 别，价格在60/120日均线之间运行，市场处于转势阶段。今日下方关注4170美元的支撑，上方关注4230 美元的压力。 原油方面：12月2日，俄罗斯总统普京与美国特使举行了近5小时的会议，俄方表示会议富有成效。市场 对俄乌和谈的预期又有上升，供应中断担忧有所减弱，油价受此影响出现下跌。 技术面：日线收下影线较长的小阴线。日线级别，年度低位存在支撑，市场仍在下降通道内部运行。1 小时级别，近期市场走势， ...

Core Insights - COMEX gold, silver, and copper prices experienced a decline, while aluminum prices rose over 3%, indicating strong performance in aluminum-related stocks [1] - As of the end of November, COMEX gold has appreciated over 52% this year, but the volatility has increased significantly, leading to a widening divergence in market sentiment [1] - Central bank activities regarding gold purchases or sales are identified as the primary explanatory variable for current gold prices, with recent sales by the Philippine and Russian central banks raising concerns about overvaluation [1] Group 1 - COMEX gold prices have seen a significant increase of over 52% year-to-date as of November [1] - The volatility in gold prices has intensified, with a notable increase in market divergence [1] - Central banks' gold purchasing and selling activities are crucial factors influencing gold price movements, with recent sales by the Philippine and Russian central banks indicating potential overvaluation [1] Group 2 - The outlook for central bank gold purchases and increased investment demand is expected to support higher precious metal prices in the medium to long term [2] - Short-term factors such as low inventory levels and potential demand release are likely to increase price elasticity, with silver recently reaching new highs [2] - Key resistance levels for London gold are identified at 4250 and 4400, with support at 4000 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The speculation regarding the next chairperson of the Federal Reserve has intensified following President Trump's recent statements, with a potential announcement expected in early 2026 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Chairperson Selection - Trump indicated he plans to announce the new Federal Reserve chairperson in early 2026, which contrasts with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's earlier suggestion of a timeline around Christmas [1] - The current chair, Jerome Powell, is set to see his term expire in May next year, and there is speculation he may remain on the board [1] - The candidate list has narrowed from 11 to 5, with potential candidates including Hassett, Fed Governor Waller, and Vice Chair Bowman [1][4] Group 2: Candidate Profile - Kevin Hassett - Kevin Hassett, 63, holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and has previously served as a senior economist at the Federal Reserve and a professor at Columbia University [4] - Hassett has been a proponent of monetary easing to stimulate growth and aligns closely with Trump's economic views, advocating for tax cuts, fiscal expansion, deregulation, and low interest rates [4] - Analysts suggest that if Hassett is appointed, he may lower the federal funds rate from the current range of 3.75% to 4% to below 3% without significantly threatening the Fed's independence [4] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - Citic Securities emphasizes that the unemployment rate will be crucial for the Fed's decision on interest rates in December, with expectations of a potential rate cut of 25 basis points [5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is currently at 87.6%, reflecting a growing expectation among market participants [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in its upcoming meeting, with an 85% probability of a reduction to 3.5% according to the CME FedWatch index [2] - Goldman Sachs reports that the combination of slowing job growth and declining inflation supports the likelihood of a new round of monetary easing, which is typically favorable for the stock market [2] - UBS predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement multiple rate cuts within the next six months if inflation is under control and employment shows signs of weakness [2] Group 2 - Despite negative news surrounding technology stocks, the market has seen a four-day rally, indicating resilience among investors [3] - Retail investors have shown a significant rebound in sentiment, with net purchases of stocks rising to $5.8 billion last week, up from $4.3 billion the previous week [4] - Corporate stock buybacks have reached $1 trillion over the past 12 months, providing additional support to the market [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and the growth prospects of investment demand will boost the price of precious metals. In the short - term, low inventory and potential short - term demand release increase the upward price elasticity. Platinum and palladium prices mainly follow gold and silver [3]. - The arrival of domestic electrolytic copper is scarce, and downstream restocking at low prices has led to a decline in inventory, keeping the futures market strong. However, new downstream orders are growing weakly, and the market will maintain a high - level shock consolidation after the breakthrough [15]. - The Shanghai Aluminum futures are oscillating strongly due to improved macro - sentiment and the impetus from copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai Aluminum and has strong downside support [34][35]. - Macro - sentiment has improved, and the probability of interest - rate cuts is considered high. On the fundamental side, smelters are competing fiercely for ore, leading to a significant decline in TC. Supply is shrinking, and demand is entering the off - season. The market is in a stalemate and will oscillate strongly in the short - term [65]. - Nickel iron prices have been declining recently, and some iron plants are inclined to cut production. Stainless steel is running strongly, but its upward momentum is expected to be limited [80]. - In the short - term, the supply of tin has raw - material problems and frequent disturbances, so Shanghai Tin will maintain a high - level shock [96]. - In the context of Ningde's resumption of production, the supply - demand game in the lithium carbonate market will intensify, and price fluctuations are expected to widen. There is a short - term pressure at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and prices may experience a phased correction [109]. - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its fundamentals are difficult to improve in the short - term. In the long - term, the downward price space is limited. The short - term trading of the polysilicon market focuses on the game between warehouse receipts and open interest, and price fluctuations are expected to increase [121]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Forecast**: London Silver's target has been raised to 65 after breaking through 55, with the first resistance at 60. London Gold has resistance at 4250 and strong resistance at 4400, with support at 4000 [3]. - **Price Index**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][8][9]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories are shown [14]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The futures market is strong due to low inventory, but new downstream orders are growing weakly. The market will maintain a high - level shock [15]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, import profits and losses, and refined - scrap price differences are provided [15][22][26][29]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME copper inventories are presented [30][31]. Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Shanghai Aluminum is oscillating strongly due to macro - factors and the impetus from other metals. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [34]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, price differences between different contracts, and import profits and losses are provided [36][43][50][56]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina inventories are presented [58]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Macro - sentiment has improved, but the fundamental side is in a stalemate. The market will oscillate strongly in the short - term [65]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, price differences between different contracts, and LME zinc's 0 - 3m and 3 - 15m spreads are provided [66][71]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME zinc inventories are presented [74][76]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel iron prices are declining, and some iron plants are inclined to cut production. Stainless steel is running strongly, but its upward momentum is limited [80]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, trading volume, open interest, and basis are provided [81]. - **Related Data**: Nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins are presented [87][88][90]. Tin - **Market Situation**: The supply of tin has raw - material problems and frequent disturbances, so it will maintain a high - level shock [96]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, import profits and losses, and processing fees are provided [97][102][107]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME tin inventories are presented [104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand game will intensify, and price fluctuations are expected to widen. There is short - term pressure at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and prices may correct [109]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, price differences between different contracts, and price differences between different grades are provided [110][113]. - **Inventory**: Exchange and social inventories are presented [119]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: Industrial silicon is in a weak supply - demand situation, and its fundamentals are difficult to improve in the short - term. The polysilicon market's short - term trading focuses on the game between warehouse receipts and open interest [121]. - **Price Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices are provided [121][131]. - **Related Data**: Production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented [145][152][154].

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 美国总统唐纳德・特朗普周日表示，他已确定下任美联储主席的人选。海外市场消息显示，目前，白宫 国家经济委员会主任、特朗普的首席经济顾问凯文·哈塞特最可能成为下一任美联储主席。 分析人士表示，作为特朗普制定经济政策的左膀右臂之一，哈塞特若当选，可能会更加积极地推动降 息，把美联储政策利率从目前的3.75–4.0%降至3.0%以下。 美联储现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月到期，新主席的遴选工作已经进入尾声。除哈塞特 外，其他候选人包括美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，前美联储理事凯文·沃什。此前，沃勒当选的呼声较 高，但11月底以来，哈塞特胜出的概率大幅上升。截至北京时间周二11：30，美国预测网站Polymarket 的数据显示，哈塞特当选概率为66%，沃勒则降至4%。 美联储主席由总统提名，同时需要参议院确认，任期4年。按照往常的惯例，下一任主席人选应该在今 年冬季公布。据负责新主席遴选工作的美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特透露，特朗普很可能在圣诞节前正 式宣布提名结果。 上周，彭博社、路透社等多家媒体称哈塞特深受特朗普信任，是接替鲍威尔的热门人选。哈塞特周日在 哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of silver and copper have surged to historical highs due to tightening global supply and expectations of monetary policy easing, reflecting a strong optimistic sentiment in the precious metals market and highlighting specific supply-demand imbalances for silver and copper [1][3][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver prices reached an all-time high of over $57 per ounce on December 1, with a daily increase of approximately 1%, while silver futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit $57.81 [1][3]. - Concerns over supply shortages and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have driven the rapid price increase [3][10]. - China's silver inventory has fallen to a seven-year low, directly linked to record export volumes in October, with over 660 tons exported, marking a historical peak [8][9]. - The significant inventory depletion in China is attributed to cross-border tariff arbitrage activities, exacerbating global supply tightness [3][8]. Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The copper price also reached a record high of $11,210.5 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, with a 13% increase since late August, driven by similar supply constraints and arbitrage activities [4][7]. - The interconnected rise of silver and copper prices illustrates the core narrative of the current commodity market, emphasizing supply shortages as a key price driver [7][9]. - Analysts predict that the ongoing supply tightness could lead to further depletion of copper inventories in regions outside the U.S. [7][8]. Monetary Policy Impact - Expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve have provided solid support for the precious metals market, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [10][11]. - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced market expectations for a potential rate cut in December, further boosting confidence in a low-interest-rate environment [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential resignation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with a report claiming he will announce his resignation during an emergency meeting, although this has not been confirmed by mainstream media or official channels [1] - President Trump has indicated that he has identified a successor for the Federal Reserve chair and will announce it soon, with market predictions suggesting a 58% probability that Kevin Hassett will be nominated, who has previously stated that the public can expect lower loan rates under Trump's choice [4] - The article highlights that Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chairman is set to end on May 15, 2026, and suggests that a more dovish chairman will likely lead to more aggressive rate cuts in the future [6] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission of China has released a new "Credit Repair Management Measures" effective from April 1, 2026, which indicates a more lenient approach to credit repair, potentially leading to increased lending by banks [5] - The broad money supply (M2) in China reached 335.13 trillion yuan at the end of October, reflecting an 8.20% year-on-year growth, suggesting that increased bank lending will contribute to a rise in market liquidity [5] - The article notes that both the U.S. and China are on a path of monetary easing, which historically has led to positive performance in asset prices such as stocks and real estate [5][6] Group 3 - The approval of the first batch of seven AI-focused ETFs in China indicates a growing channel for capital to enter the stock market, with a total of 1,365 listed ETFs and a total scale of 5.69 trillion yuan as of November 29 [5] - The article concludes that with the expected dovish stance of the new Federal Reserve chair and China's focus on stable growth and low interest rates, both countries are likely to experience a sustained period of declining interest rates, benefiting the stock market as a hedge against inflation [6]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to remain in a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, with moderate inflation not posing a significant constraint on rate cuts. Price data indicates that inflation in the U.S. has not shown an abnormal rebound, supporting the Fed's potential rate cuts [4][7] - In China, monetary easing remains necessary, but banks need to prioritize "anti-involution" measures first. High debt pressures in real estate and local government sectors necessitate monetary easing to mitigate risks, but the current space for easing is limited due to low net interest margins [4][8] - Limited monetary easing is anticipated at the beginning of next year to stimulate the economy and align with fiscal debt issuance. A significant amount of local government debt is expected to be issued in early 2026, necessitating potential reserve requirement ratio cuts to stabilize liquidity [4][15][16] - The misalignment of monetary policies between China and the U.S. is expected to support the appreciation of the Renminbi, with trade surpluses providing long-term support for the currency. Since February 2020, China has maintained a positive trade balance, indicating strong foreign exchange accumulation [4][18] Summary by Sections Section 1: Monetary Policy in the U.S. - The U.S. is likely to enter a new round of rate cuts in 2026, with inflation rising moderately and not significantly constraining the Fed's decisions. The CPI in September increased by 3.0%, slightly above August's 2.9% but below market expectations [7] - The influence of Trump's tariff policies has resulted in lower-than-expected price increases for goods, indicating weak terminal demand and limited price pass-through to consumers [7] Section 2: Monetary Policy in China - China's monetary easing is deemed necessary due to high debt pressures in real estate and local government sectors, but the current easing space is limited. As of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks fell to 1.42%, a historical low [8][10] - The need for banks to adopt "anti-involution" strategies is emphasized, focusing on maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships rather than merely adjusting deposit rates [13][14] Section 3: Economic Stimulus and Debt Issuance - Short-term monetary easing is expected at the start of the year to stimulate economic growth and support fiscal debt issuance. The issuance of local government debt is anticipated to be significant in early 2026 [15][16] - The potential need for reserve requirement ratio cuts is highlighted to release long-term liquidity and stabilize interbank liquidity fluctuations [16] Section 4: Currency Dynamics - The divergence in monetary policies between China and the U.S. is expected to create a foundation for the Renminbi's appreciation, supported by ongoing trade surpluses. Since February 2020, China has consistently recorded positive trade balances, indicating strong foreign exchange demand [18][19]

今日周五(11月28日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于12635一线上方，今日开盘于12500元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报12718元/千克，上涨3.14%，最高触及12744元/千克，最低下探12384元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 尽管有几位竞争者角逐美联储最高职位，但据彭博社报道，凯文·哈塞特已成为鲍威尔任期于5月结束时 继任美联储主席的领跑者。 分析师指出，哈塞特被视为鸽派候选人，支持更激进的降息政策，这将增加货币宽松预期。降息预期削 弱美元吸引力，导致美元指数承压下行（bearish），短期可能进一步走弱。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银再次刷新高点，目前价位在12700，破位了前高，很明显，白银还是绝对的强势，多头趋势下，上 涨不猜顶，无法看到白银的顶部点位在哪里，沪银溢价收敛至310元/克，沪银情绪依旧偏强。沪银主力 合约参考运行区间12200-12700。 【要闻速递】 凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）是杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期于5月结束时接任美联储主席的领先候选人。 白宫可能随时宣布美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席人选。上周，财政部 ...