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再次降息!
Wind万得· 2025-06-05 12:22
欧洲央行于北京时间6月5日晚间公布利率决议,下调三大关键利率25个基点。 多家机构认为, 随着欧元区通胀率回落至2%目标下方且经济复苏乏力,本次降息符合预期。 欧央行在2024年6月开始第一次降息,当前已经将存款便利利率从4%降至2%。 此前,高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利、野村和 Berenberg 等机构均表示,欧央行此次会将存 款利率下调 25 个基点至 2% 。 // 欧央行可能加大货币宽松力度 // 欧洲央行管委Simkus此前表示,对于欧洲央行的利率,没有一个核心设想。欧洲央行6月降息是必要 的,6月之后有可能再次降息。不清楚6月后的降息是在7月还是9月。 高盛预计,欧洲央行将在9月再降息25个基点,使2025年最终利率降至1.5%。 桑坦德银行的 Antonio Villarroya同样 认为,欧洲央行可能会在 9 月再次降息 25 个基点, 如果"对等关税"暂缓期结束后,美国启动加征额外关税,欧洲央行可能会加大宽松力度。 华创证券指出,德国失业率反超意大利,欧元区经济增长面临下行风险,欧洲央行可能加大货币宽松力 度。 欧元区制造业 PMI 5 月终值 49.4 仍处收缩区间。欧元区 5 月综合 P ...
关税加剧经济不确定性 加拿大央行今晚或按兵不动
智通财经网· 2025-06-04 00:43
道明证券加拿大及全球利率策略主管Andrew Kelvin表示:"我认为加拿大央行在今年剩余时间里难以确 定全球贸易形势的发展,但加拿大国内经济已经足够有韧性,加拿大央行有能力等到7月再行动。" 特朗普对包括钢铁、铝、汽车以及不符合北美贸易协定的产品在内的多种加拿大商品征收关税,损害了 劳动力市场,削弱了企业和消费者的信心。但加拿大核心通胀正在上升,第一季度经济表现超出预期, 部分原因是企业赶在关税生效前将更多商品运往美国。 加拿大央行可能不会提供太多前瞻性指引,但随着关税带来的冲击加剧,经济学家和市场预计该行今年 晚些时候将进一步降息。鉴于未来经济可能受损,决策者维持鸽派基调的可能性有所增加。 智通财经APP获悉,加拿大央行将于北京时间周三21:45公布利率决议。市场预计加拿大央行将维持隔 夜利率在2.75%不变,这将是连续第二次暂停降息,因为加拿大央行官员们正在等待美国总统唐纳德·特 朗普的贸易战最终将如何影响经济的更明确信号。 加拿大央行官员们可能会重申,如果经济数据恶化,或者如果他们认为有足够的信息来了解贸易争端将 如何发展,他们将迅速采取行动。但就目前而言,缺乏明确的信息可能会迫使他们按兵不动。 加 ...
日本央行行长:警惕食品价格上涨的通胀风险
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-30 04:36
Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is cautious about rising food prices potentially increasing the underlying inflation rate, which is close to its 2% target [1][2] - BOJ Governor Ueda indicated that inflation expectations are between 1.5% and 2%, the highest in 30 years, prompting the bank to maintain low interest rates despite rising food prices, particularly a 90% surge in rice prices [2] - Ueda mentioned that the impact of food price inflation is expected to diminish, but the proximity of underlying inflation to the 2% target necessitates careful monitoring of food price inflation's effects [2] Group 2 - The BOJ is closely monitoring economic risks from U.S. tariff increases and domestic inflation pressures to determine when to resume interest rate hikes [2] - Despite lowering forecasts due to trade policy uncertainties, the BOJ expects the core inflation rate to gradually approach the 2% target in the latter half of the forecast period (FY2027) [2] - Ueda stated that if new data increases confidence in the baseline scenario, the BOJ will adjust the degree of monetary easing through interest rate hikes as necessary [2] Group 3 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently trading around 143.90, down 0.15% from the previous close of 144.12, indicating limited upward momentum in the daily technical indicators [1][2] - If the USD/JPY fails to break above 145.00 and sustain upward movement, there is a risk of a pullback, especially if it drops below the support range of 144.00–143.65, potentially testing 143.00 or even the monthly low of 142.10 [2]
市场主流观点汇总-20250527
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 13:14
Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2]. Market Data Summary Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes - Gold closed at 780.10 with a 3.76% weekly increase [2]. - Silver closed at 8263.00 with a 2.00% weekly increase [2]. - Other commodities like corn, copper, and glass had varying degrees of price changes, with some increasing and others decreasing [2]. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes - The Shanghai Composite Index and other indexes also had corresponding price changes, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.38% - 1.10% [2]. Bond and Exchange Rates - Chinese 10 - year government bonds increased by 2.61%, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose by 1.79% [2]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 1 was bullish, 1 was bearish, and 7 expected a sideways movement [4]. - Bullish logics: RMB appreciation, capital inflow, net financing purchase, potential monetary policies, and policy support for the stock market [4]. - Bearish logics: Global debt issues, ineffective industrial policies, slow economic improvement, and low market trading volume [4]. Bond Futures - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, all 7 expected a sideways movement [4]. - Bullish logics: Low possibility of tightened liquidity, declining interest rates, policy constraints on market rates, and weak real - economy financing demand [4]. - Bearish logics: Unlikely further interest - rate cuts, upcoming special treasury bond supply, rising risk appetite, and expected policy - driven inflation and growth [4]. Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways movement [5]. - Bullish logics: Rebound in transportation data, decline in US active oil rigs, high gold - oil ratio, and lack of clear OPEC production increase data [5]. - Bearish logics: Approaching US debt crisis, rumored OPEC+ production increase, inventory accumulation, easing US - Iran relations, poor US debt auction, and tariff threats [5]. Agricultural Sector Palm Oil - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions surveyed, 0 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 6 expected a sideways movement [5]. - Bullish logics: Increase in Malaysian palm oil exports, limited production increase in May, high Indian imports, and decreasing domestic inventory [5]. - Bearish logics: Increase in Malaysian palm oil production, excessive domestic purchases, higher - than - expected production data, seasonal production increase, and potential reduction in biodiesel demand [5]. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 2 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 5 expected a sideways movement [6]. - Bullish logics: Tariff - buffer - driven exports, improvement in US manufacturing PMI, inventory reduction, and continuous decline in social inventory [6]. - Bearish logics: Low downstream processing profits, post - tariff - window demand pressure, potential decline in photovoltaic demand, and high valuation [6]. Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 0 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways movement [6]. - Bullish logics: Improved regional sales, reduced inventory, potential policy support, and technical support at the current price [6]. - Bearish logics: Price cuts for inventory reduction, high daily melting volume, approaching traditional off - season, and weak real - estate demand [6]. Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 4 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways movement [7]. - Bullish logics: Global bond market volatility, Chinese reduction of US debt, trade risks, and geopolitical tensions [7]. - Bearish logics: Market pricing of US fiscal bill impact, potential limited impact of tariff threats, possible decline in gold's relative attractiveness, and overbought technical signals [7]. Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 0 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 6 expected a sideways movement [7]. - Bullish logics: Coal mine maintenance, high steel - mill profits, strong basis after price decline, and weak coking - enterprise production - cut incentives [7]. - Bearish logics: High mine inventory, declining iron - water production, high auction failure rate, shrinking coking profits, and high port clearance volume [7].
5月27日汇市晚评:日本央行预计下半年胀将向2%靠拢 日元延续日内跌势
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-27 09:37
Currency Market Overview - The Euro is maintaining significant declines around 1.1350 against the US Dollar, while the British Pound faces selling pressure below 1.3550 [1] - The Japanese Yen continues to decline, moving away from a one-month high reached earlier in the day [1] - The Australian Dollar is experiencing a pullback after reaching a year-to-date high, while the New Zealand Dollar struggles to break through the year-to-date high of 0.6030 [1] - The US Dollar is rebounding against the Canadian Dollar from a seven-month low, approaching the previous support area of 1.3750-1.3765, where bulls may face challenges [1] Economic Indicators - Germany's Gfk Consumer Confidence Index for June recorded -19.9, marking the highest level since November 2024 [2] - The German economy is expected to contract by 0.3% this year, with inflation projected at 2.1% in 2025, down from 2.2% in 2024 [3] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde stated that US policies provide opportunities to enhance the global status of the Euro [3] - The Bank of Japan has lost its position as the world's largest creditor for the first time in 34 years, with Finance Minister Kato emphasizing the importance of currency stability reflecting fundamentals [3][4] Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan is considering adjustments to its bond issuance plan, potentially reducing the issuance of ultra-long bonds [4] - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda has lowered economic and inflation outlooks due to increasing uncertainties, particularly related to trade policies, but still expects inflation to gradually approach 2% in the latter half of the forecast period [4] - The Bank of Israel has maintained its interest rate unchanged for the 11th consecutive time [6] - The Swedish central bank's Deputy Governor Jansson anticipates that the recent strengthening of the Swedish Krona will continue [7] Market Expectations - A Reuters survey indicates that 36 economists expect the Bank of Korea to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on May 29, with a forecast of a total reduction of 75 basis points to 2.00% by the end of Q4 2025 [7] - The General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements, Carstens, stated that central banks should not expect to stabilize inflation in a very short time frame, emphasizing the need for fiscal authorities to manage rising public debt [7] Technical Analysis - The Euro/Dollar pair shows a "inverted hammer" pattern, indicating temporary bearish pressure, with a critical support level at 1.1300 that must be broken for further declines [8] - The Pound/Dollar pair's sustained breakthrough above 1.3434/44 could signal a continuation of upward momentum, targeting levels of 1.3643/1.3748 [8] - The Australian Dollar/Dollar pair has broken out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, leading to increased volatility and upward movement, supported by a bullish trend indicated by the 20-day EMA around 0.6426 [10]
植田和男:将根据需要调整货币宽松的程度
news flash· 2025-05-27 00:14
Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that the central bank will adjust the degree of monetary easing as necessary, based on upcoming data that enhances confidence in fundamental expectations, aiming to achieve a sustainable 2% inflation target [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is prepared to modify its monetary easing policy in response to economic activity and price improvements [1] - The adjustments will be contingent on data that provides greater confidence in the central bank's basic expectations [1] - The ultimate goal is to ensure the realization of a sustainable 2% inflation target [1]
债基发行热潮来袭!货币宽松预期下,债券市场“掘金”新机遇?
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-05-23 02:34
Group 1 - The bond market has seen significant activity in May, with several large-scale bond funds being established, the largest reaching nearly 6 billion yuan [1][3] - Institutional funds, primarily from insurance and wealth management institutions, have a high proportion in the newly launched bond funds [1][3] - As of May 21, 85 bond funds have been established this year, with 48 raising over 1 billion yuan, 23 over 3 billion yuan, and 12 over 5 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - The recent monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts, have revitalized the bond market, making bonds more attractive in a low-interest environment [3][4] - The bond market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with strategies focusing on steepening the yield curve and compressing spreads [4] - Future monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with a low risk of rising bond market yields, creating a favorable environment for bonds [4]
两天六场路演!债基发行升温,基金经理很忙……
券商中国· 2025-05-22 23:06
债券基金发行升温,基金经理随之忙碌起来。 "出差两天,公司给我安排了六场机构路演。"一位债券基金经理对券商中国记者称。数据显示,截至5月21 日,5月以来已有多只大规模债基成立,最大的接近60亿元。从券商中国记者采访情况来看,新发债基中以机 构资金居多,近期主要是保险和理财机构。公募策略认为,接下来货币宽松预期将会持续发酵,债券整体仍将 面临比较有利的环境。 大规模新发债基频现 根据中航基金5月21日公告,中航中债-投资级公司绿色债券基金成立,募集规模34.50亿元。而在5月17日汇安 基金公告显示,新成立的汇安裕宏利率债债券基金,在5月6日至5月14日的募集期内,募集了60亿元。 需要指出的是,大规模债基的成立并非个例。5月14日成立的民生加银恒悦债券基金,募集规模同样接近60亿 元,募集期间为4月22日至5月13日。而在4月25日至5月13日募集的国泰中债优选投资级信用债基,募集规模同 样接近60亿元。该基金是一只发起式基金,国泰基金出资1000万元进行了自购,承诺持有期限不少于3年。此 外,成立于5月15日的安信锦顺利率债基,规模也有10亿元。 除5月外,今年4月同样有大规模债基出现。成立于4月28日的 ...
资金涌入!债券基金发行持续升温
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-05-22 02:34
【环球网财经综合报道】我国债券基金发行再度升温,5月以来已有多只大规模债基成立,最大的接近60亿元。新发债券基金以机构客户居多,主要是保险 和理财机构。随着货币适当宽松的预期持续,债券整体仍将面临比较有利的环境。据Wind统计,截至5月21日,今年以来全市场成立的85只债券当中,有48 只的募集规模超过了10亿元。其中有23只的募集规模在30亿元以上,募集规模超50亿元的则有12只。 近期新发债券基金募资规模较大,有些成为"爆款"。根据中航基金5月21日公告,中航中债-投资级公司绿色债券基金成立,募集规模34.50亿元。5月17日, 汇安基金公告显示,新成立的汇安裕宏利率债债券基金,在5月6日至5月14日的募集期内,募集了60亿元。5月14日成立的民生加银恒悦债券基金,募集规模 同样接近60亿元,募集期间为4月22日至5月13日。 与债券基金发行升温对应的是,市场资金对债券行情的预期也在逐步提升。2025年以来,政策微调与转向犹如平静湖面上投下的巨石,给金融市场带来层层 涟漪。降准降息的相继落地,无疑是向市场注入了一剂强心针,为整体经济的复苏与发展铺就了道路,也为债市带来了生机。嘉实基金经理李宇昂表示,一 方 ...
巨富金业:欧盟对俄制裁加码,黄金在经济衰退预期与货币宽松间的平衡术
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 08:50
Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical situation is tense in multiple regions, particularly in the Middle East where negotiations between Israel and Hamas have stalled, and there are reports of Israel potentially preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities [2] - In Europe, the EU has approved the 17th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK has introduced over 100 new sanctions, including the suspension of free trade agreement negotiations with Israel [2] - The complex geopolitical landscape has significantly increased market uncertainty, providing strong support for gold prices [2] Economic Outlook - High uncertainty is causing households and businesses to pause spending and investment, which may lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth [2] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, with expectations of at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025, each by 25 basis points [2] Credit Rating Impact - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1 has led to a significant drop in U.S. stock markets, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5% and the 30-year yield exceeding 5% [3] - These economic instabilities are prompting investors to seek channels for asset preservation and appreciation, highlighting the safe-haven function of gold [3] Trading Strategies - For spot gold, a buy position is recommended if it stabilizes at 3245.00, with a target of 3275.00 [4] - For spot silver, a sell position is suggested if it stabilizes at 32.700, with a target of 32.900 [6]