Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite a significant decline in market sentiment this week, aluminum prices remained relatively resilient. During the off - season, the spot market's premium and discount were weak. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilization plan has no impact on the electrolytic aluminum supply side, but potential policy support for the consumption side should be monitored. Although social inventories are accumulating during the off - season, the expected increase is limited due to supply constraints. There is a need to be vigilant about the squeeze - out risk in the 08 contract. The post - decline correction after the anti - involution sentiment fades is an opportunity for long - term buying hedging [6]. - There are still issues with alumina warehouse receipts. The supply side continues to resume production due to profit incentives, and the current and expected surplus situation remains unchanged, with the social inventory accumulation rate increasing. The short - term surplus may be in transit and form warehouse receipts later, while the spot market remains in a tight - balance state [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season. The futures price fluctuates with aluminum prices. The supply of scrap and raw aluminum remains tight, and the cost side supports prices. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [9]. 3. Key Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On July 30, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,670 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The East China aluminum spot premium and discount was - 10 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount was - 180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,660 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount was - 20 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On July 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,585 yuan/ton, closed at 20,625 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,675 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,570 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 125,168 lots, and the position was 261,363 lots [2]. Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 533,000 tons, a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 51,217 tons, a change of - 1,857 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 460,350 tons, a change of 4,250 tons from the previous trading day. The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 43,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 63,600 tons [2][4]. Alumina Spot Price - On July 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,250 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,230 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,300 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 30, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,349 yuan/ton, closed at 3,326 yuan/ton, a change of 54 yuan/ton (1.65%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,406 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,286 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 567,566 lots, and the position was 148,574 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On July 30, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost of aluminum alloy was 20,078 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 278 yuan/ton [5]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance on aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [10]. - Arbitrage: Conduct long - short arbitrage on Shanghai aluminum and go long on AD11 while shorting AL11 [10].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on July 30, 2025, to help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79,030 (domestic) and 9,706 (LME), with a ratio of 8.15; March price is 78,860 (domestic) and 9,758 (LME), ratio 8.09. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17, profit is - 398.80 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,580 (domestic) and 2,804 (LME), ratio 8.05; March price is 22,675 (domestic) and 2,808 (LME), ratio 6.03. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.65, profit is - 1,685.62 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,620 (domestic) and 2,616 (LME), ratio 7.88; March price is 20,590 (domestic) and 2,619 (LME), ratio 7.86. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.51, profit is - 1,652.64 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price is 120,300 (domestic) and 15,004 (LME), ratio 8.02. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.25, profit is - 1,795.71 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price is 16,750 (domestic) and 1,984 (LME), ratio 8.46; March price is 16,915 (domestic) and 2,016 (LME), ratio 11.22. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.85, profit is - 772.80 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, May and the spot - month are - 160, - 140, - 180, - 240 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 497, 892, 1296, 1700 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 40, 60, 40, - 10, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 460, 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads are - 40, - 55, - 110, - 165, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 445, 560 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 20, 35, 55, 110, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 315, 420, 526 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads are 300, 430, 610, 870 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 1060, theoretical spread is 5526 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts to the spot are - 10 and - 170, and the theoretical spreads are 296 and 710 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 35 and 75, and the theoretical spreads are 146 and 278 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 130 and 150, and the theoretical spreads are 151 and 263 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - **Domestic (Three - Consecutive Contracts)**: Copper/zinc is 3.48, copper/aluminum is 3.83, copper/lead is 4.66, aluminum/zinc is 0.91, aluminum/lead is 1.22, lead/zinc is 0.75 [5]. - **LME (Three - Consecutive Contracts)**: Copper/zinc is 3.49, copper/aluminum is 3.76, copper/lead is 4.86, aluminum/zinc is 0.93, aluminum/lead is 1.29, lead/zinc is 0.72 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminium prices lack upward elasticity due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan has no impact on the supply side, but policy support for the consumption side should be monitored. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract, and the long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. - The alumina supply side continues to resume production due to profit incentives, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. The inventory accumulation speed is increasing. There are still problems with the warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data Aluminium Spot - East China A00 aluminium price is 20,620 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminium price is 20,440 yuan/ton, and the spot premium has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton. - Foshan A00 aluminium price is 20,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminium Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main SHFE aluminium contract opened at 20,635 yuan/ton, closed at 20,605 yuan/ton, a change of - 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 20,695 yuan/ton and a low of 20,570 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 119,985 lots, and the position was 272,707 lots [2]. Inventory - As of July 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 533,000 tons, a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 53,074 tons, a change of - 524 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 456,100 tons, a change of 1,825 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On July 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,300 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,259 yuan/ton, closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, a change of 33 yuan/ton (1.01%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a high of 3,311 yuan/ton and a low of 3,230 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 472,199 lots, and the position was 158,124 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Price - On July 29, 2025, the Baotai purchase price of civil primary aluminium was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminium was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 43,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 63,600 tons [4]. Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,078 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 278 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminium - Aluminium prices lack upward momentum due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract. The long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. Alumina - The supply side continues to resume production, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. There are problems with warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. Aluminium Alloy - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for aluminium, alumina, and aluminium alloy. - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminium positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 25, 2025 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 25, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,790, the LME price was 9,897, and the ratio was 8.05; the domestic March price was 79,920, the LME price was 9,947, and the ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.14, with a profit of - 630.69, and the profit for spot export was 402.52 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,870, the LME price was 2,875, and the ratio was 7.95; the domestic March price was 23,015, the LME price was 2,876, and the ratio was 5.86. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.62, with a profit of - 1,901.83 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot and March prices were both 20,730, the LME spot price was 2,648, the March price was 2,646, and the ratio was 7.82. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.48, with a profit of - 1,741.60 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 122,850, the LME price was 15,403, and the ratio was 7.98. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.22, with a profit of - 2,151.35 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,650, the LME price was 2,011, and the ratio was 8.30; the domestic March price was 16,935, the LME price was 2,036, and the ratio was 11.26. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.81, with a profit of - 1,022.60 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 25, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, March, April, and May contracts relative to the spot month were 370, 400, 360, and 270 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 500, 897, 1304, and 1710 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 95, 95, 45, and 0 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 218, 341, 465, and 588 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 55, - 85, - 155, and - 210 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 447, and 563 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 80, 125, 145, and 150 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1140, 1300, 1490, and 1720 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 240, and the theoretical spread was 5663 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 240 and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 337 and 832 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 50 and 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 180 and 313 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 160 and 240 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 174 and 285 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 25, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (triple - continuous) were 3.47, 3.86, 4.72, 0.90, 1.22, and 0.74 respectively; in London (triple - continuous), they were 3.47, 3.73, 4.88, 0.93, 1.31, and 0.71 respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The MTO (Methanol to Olefins) profit is significantly influenced by various factors including methanol prices, demand for olefin products, policies, and seasonal patterns, with a strong negative correlation to methanol prices [4][7][8]. Group 1: MTO Profit Calculation and Influencing Factors - MTO profit is calculated based on the cost structure, where 70-80% of costs are attributed to energy consumption and raw materials, with methanol prices being a critical component [5][7]. - The cost of producing 1 ton of polypropylene (PP) requires 3 tons of methanol, and catalyst costs also contribute to overall expenses [5]. - Key factors affecting MTO profit include: 1. Methanol prices, which are influenced by coal and natural gas prices, with a significant portion of methanol in China being coal-derived [7]. 2. Demand for olefin products, particularly from the packaging and automotive sectors, which can drive PP prices [8]. 3. Policies and environmental regulations, such as carbon taxes and subsidies for green methanol projects, which can impact production costs and profitability [8]. 4. Seasonal patterns, where winter months typically see higher methanol prices and reduced MTO profits, while summer months may lead to increased profits due to lower methanol prices and higher demand [9]. Group 2: Production Strategies and Market Dynamics - Companies may adopt different production strategies based on MTO profit levels, such as increasing raw material procurement during high-profit periods and reducing operational rates during negative profit periods [10]. - Seasonal trading strategies can be employed by investors, such as going long on profits during summer months and shorting during winter months, reflecting the cyclical nature of MTO profitability [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 23, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, spreads, and theoretical spreads [1][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79760 (domestic) and 9794 (LME) with a ratio of 8.16; March price is 79770 (domestic) and 9863 (LME) with a ratio of 8.07. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.16 with a profit of 76.62, and spot export profit is - 67.76 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22800 (domestic) and 2841 (LME) with a ratio of 8.02; March price is 22940 (domestic) and 2846 (LME) with a ratio of 5.92. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.64 with a profit of - 1742.69 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20950 (domestic) and 2647 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91; March price is 20835 (domestic) and 2645 (LME) with a ratio of 7.86. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.50 with a profit of - 1559.16 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 121600 (domestic) and 15283 (LME) with a ratio of 7.96. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.24 with a profit of - 2250.36 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 16675 (domestic) and 1976 (LME) with a ratio of 8.46; March price is 16965 (domestic) and 2002 (LME) with a ratio of 11.40. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.84 with a profit of - 739.70 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 40, 70, 30, - 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 501, 899, 1307, 1714 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 60, 55, 35, - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 217, 341, 464, 588 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 30, - 35, - 100, - 160 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 332, 448, 564 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 30, 5, 5, 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 316, 421, 527 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 1170, 1260, 1500, 1710 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 370 with a theoretical spread of 5556 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 3.48, 3.83, 4.70, 0.91, 1.23, 0.74 (Shanghai continuous three - month), and 3.47, 3.73, 4.93, 0.93, 1.32, 0.70 (LME continuous three - month) [8] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are - 5 and 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 397 and 844 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are 85 and 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 155 and 285 respectively [5] - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are 285 and 255 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 199 and 311 respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on July 22, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 79600, LME price is 9790, and the ratio is 8.03; for three - month contracts, China price is 79770, LME price is 9857, and the ratio is 8.06. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.16 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 22820, LME price is 2848, and the ratio is 8.01; for three - month contracts, China price is 22915, LME price is 2850, and the ratio is 5.93. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.64, with a profit of - 1778.34 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 20890, LME price is 2640, and the ratio is 7.91; for three - month contracts, China price is 20785, LME price is 2638, and the ratio is 7.87. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.50, with a profit of - 1547.06 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 121350, LME price is 15134, and the ratio is 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.24, with a profit of - 1872.54 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 16725, LME price is 1985, and the ratio is 8.47; for three - month contracts, China price is 17015, LME price is 2011, and the ratio is 11.38. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.84, with a profit of - 736.74 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are 1360, 1360, 1340, and 1290 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 494, 886, 1287, and 1688 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads are 625, 615, 570, and 530, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 335, 456, and 576 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads are 275, 220, 140, and 85, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 443, and 558 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads are 175, 195, 225, and 200, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads are 2200, 2310, 2500, and 2720 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 3300, and the theoretical spread is 5533 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 1100 and 260 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 246 and 885 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads are - 520 and 105, and the theoretical spreads are 187 and 320 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads are 95 and 270, and the theoretical spreads are 176 and 288 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) are 3.48, 3.84, 4.69, 0.91, 1.22, and 0.74 respectively; for LME (three - continuous contracts), they are 3.47, 3.73, 4.89, 0.93, 1.31, and 0.71 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Short coal - based profit [3] Core View - The polyolefin market continues fundamental trading, with weak and stable prices. During the upstream petrochemical plant maintenance season, the number of maintenance enterprises increases slightly, capacity utilization decreases, and new capacity continues to be released, so the overall supply maintains an increasing trend. Enterprises' inventory accumulates, and the destocking rate is slow. Downstream demand remains in the off - season, the terminal operating rate remains low, and the overall operating rate changes little. Purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and there is little hope for improvement in the short term. International oil prices and propane prices continue to be weak, and are expected to remain weak, with weak cost support, and PDH - made PP profit remains slightly profitable [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7215元/吨（+1），PP主力合约收盘价为7020元/吨（+7），LL华北现货为7150元/吨（-10），LL华东现货为7190元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为7070元/吨（-10），LL华北基差为 - 65元/吨（-11），LL华东基差为 - 25元/吨（-31），PP华东基差为50元/吨（-17） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为78.2%（+0.4%），PP开工率为77.3%（+0.7%）；PE油制生产利润为171.7元/吨（+4.6），PP油制生产利润为 - 208.3元/吨（+4.6），PDH制PP生产利润为301.8元/吨（+56.9） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL进口利润为 - 101.2元/吨（+76.3），PP进口利润为 - 672.8元/吨（+0.0），PP出口利润为34.2美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE下游农膜开工率为12.5%（-0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.6%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为41.4%（-0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.8%（+0.2%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - BZ futures maintain a certain premium, with strong downstream demand for pure benzene, leading to a decline in pure benzene port inventory from a high level. High开工 rates of styrene and CPL support demand, and the increase in polymer MDI开工 drives up aniline开工. However, the sustainability of high CPL开工 is questionable due to the decline in PA6 and nylon filament开工. On the supply side, the pressure of South Korean exports to China remains, and domestic开工 is still high, resulting in the continued weak consolidation of pure benzene processing fees. - For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly, and the EB basis is further weakening. Domestically, EB maintains a high开工 rate. In terms of demand, EPS开工 is increasing, but there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS, suppressing their开工 rates. - The recommended trading strategies are to remain on the sidelines for pure benzene, and to sell short styrene at high prices for hedging. For basis and inter - period spreads, conduct reverse hedging for near - month BZ paper goods against distant - end BZ2603 futures at high prices; conduct reverse inter - period spreads for EB2508 - 2509 and EB2509 - 2510. For cross - variety spreads, narrow the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 202 yuan/ton (+4), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 85 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton). The spread between the first - month contract and the third - month contract is also provided in the figures [1][11]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 116 yuan/ton (- 61 yuan/ton), and the inter - period spreads between EB2508 - 2509 and EB2509 - 2510 are recommended for reverse hedging [1][3]. 3.2 Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 160 dollars/ton (+2 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 143 dollars/ton (+2 dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 128.9 dollars/ton (- 24.1 dollars/ton). Downstream production profits include - 1818 yuan/ton (+42) for caprolactam, - 667 yuan/ton (+0) for phenol - acetone, - 97 yuan/ton (+74) for aniline, and - 1428 yuan/ton (- 14) for adipic acid [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 54 yuan/ton (- 87 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. The EB - BZ spread is recommended to be narrowed at high prices [1][3]. 3.3 Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.40 million tons (- 1.00 million tons), and the开工 rate of downstream products such as caprolactam is 91.72% (- 4.00%), phenol is 81.00% (+3.00%), aniline is 75.86% (+4.96%), and adipic acid is 64.80% (- 0.90%) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 138,500 tons (+27,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 45,000 tons (+6,000 tons), and the开工 rate is 78.3% (- 0.9%) [1]. 3.4 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 324 yuan/ton (+119 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 53.18% (+2.12%). - PS production profit is - 126 yuan/ton (+69 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 50.60% (- 0.50%). - ABS production profit is 490 yuan/ton (+77 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 65.90% (+0.90%). The downstream开工 is at a seasonal low [2]. 3.5 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam开工 rate is 91.72% (- 4.00%), and the production profit is - 1818 yuan/ton (+42). - Phenol - acetone开工 rate is 81.00% (+3.00%), and the production profit is - 667 yuan/ton (+0). - Aniline开工 rate is 75.86% (+4.96%), and the production profit is - 97 yuan/ton (+74). - Adipic acid开工 rate is 64.80% (- 0.90%), and the production profit is - 1428 yuan/ton (- 14) [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 18, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 18, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,010, the LME price was 9,538, and the ratio was 8.19. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, with a profit of - 219.86. The domestic three - month price was 77,830, the LME price was 9,597, and the ratio was 8.12 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,120, the LME price was 2,693, and the ratio was 8.21. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.68, with a profit of - 1,248.97. The domestic three - month price was 22,085, the LME price was 2,696, and the ratio was 6.24 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,570, the LME price was 2,564, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.53, with a profit of - 1,293.96. The domestic three - month price was 20,355, the LME price was 2,567, and the ratio was 7.96 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118,550, the LME price was 14,787, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, with a profit of - 2,413.78 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,625, the LME price was 1,946, and the ratio was 8.58. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, with a profit of - 540.93. The domestic three - month price was 16,905, the LME price was 1,974, and the ratio was 11.19 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 130, - 150, - 190, and - 290 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 492, 882, 1281, and 1680 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 75, 40, 10, and - 35, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 452, and 571 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 60, - 120, - 185, and - 240, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 328, 442, and 557 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, 10, 30, and 105, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 315, 420, and 526 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 580, - 460, - 220, and - 70 [4] - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 450, and the theoretical spread was 5437 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 20 and - 150, and the theoretical spreads were 465 and 878 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 75 and 0, and the theoretical spreads were 186 and 315 (also 172 and 286 in another record) [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 270 and 250, and the theoretical spreads were 216 and 327 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 18, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.52, 3.82, 4.60, 0.92, 1.20, and 0.77 respectively, and in London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.53, 3.75, 4.90, 0.94, 1.31, and 0.72 [5]