Report Summary Core View - The Treasury bond futures first declined and then rebounded last week, with an overall decline. The risk appetite in the equity market was restored due to the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict. The net long positions of speculators and allocators both showed negative growth on a weekly basis. The view that the market will be volatile in the long term is maintained. Appropriate choices should be made to go long on the inter - delivery spread, allocate at low prices, and hedge at high prices [3] Key Points by Section 1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Treasury bond futures contracts fluctuated downward on a weekly basis. The TL contract was greatly affected by the volatility of the market's risk appetite, with a relatively large decline, and the yield curve steepened [5] - In terms of basis characteristics, the basis trend was stable, and the IRR of the main contract was basically between 1.8 - 1.9. Regarding the inter - delivery spread, the 09 - 12 combination was flat this week, and it is recommended to hold a long inter - delivery spread portfolio. The yield curve showed a steepening trend, and opportunities for curve steepening should be monitored [7] 2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - No specific content provided other than the section title [10] 3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type, private funds decreased by 0.45%, foreign capital decreased by 0.74%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 0.55%. On a weekly basis, private funds decreased by 3.78%, foreign capital decreased by 8.77%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 7.86% [12]

国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16975 2011 8.42 三月 17180 2033 10.80 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.84 -844.55 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/26 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78570 9826 8.01 三月 78500 9726 8.08 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.15 -1355.85 现货出口 898.69 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22200 2682 8.28 三月 21945 2699 6.35 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.67 -1052.78 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/26 国内价格 LME价格 ...

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -170 -230 理论价差 146 247 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 170 210 理论价差 175 287 跨品种套利跟踪 2025/06/25 铜/锌 铜/铝 铜/铅 铝/锌 铝/铅 铅/锌 沪（三连） 3.59 3.87 4.62 0.93 1.19 0.78 伦（三连） 3.61 3.75 4.79 0.96 1.28 0.75 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/23 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/23 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78370 9846 7.97 三月 77570 9571 8.18 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.16 -2374.98 现货出口 1366.15 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/23 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22050 2601 8.48 三月 21560 2626 6.42 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.70 -564.68 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/23 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20720 2528 8.20 三月 20265 2517 8.16 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.60 -1033.31 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/23 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120550 14767 8.16 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.26 -3117.40 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/23 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16700 1953 8.57 三月 16850 1981 11.06 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.90 -65 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/20 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78660 9755 8.10 三月 77930 9622 8.16 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -1293.68 现货出口 541.23 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22000 2595 8.48 三月 21550 2622 6.46 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.70 -583.20 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20770 2538 8.18 三月 20340 2538 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.61 -1086.05 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120400 14839 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.27 -3376.30 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 | | 国内价格 | LME价格 | 比价 | | 均衡比价 | 盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -10 -180 理论价差 223 281 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 210 280 理论价差 211 323 跨品种套利跟踪 2025/06/17 铜/锌 铜/铝 铜/铅 铝/锌 铝/铅 铅/锌 沪（三连） 3.63 3.87 4.58 0.94 1.19 0.79 伦（三连） 3.65 3.86 4.83 0.95 1.25 0.76 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误 ...

跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/16 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -890 -1100 -1310 -1540 理论价差 497 891 1295 1698 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -560 -855 -1010 -1105 理论价差 215 336 457 578 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -235 -465 -615 -725 理论价差 214 330 445 561 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 65 60 35 45 理论价差 209 315 420 526 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 1920 2120 2260 2480 锡 5-1 价差 1290 理论价差 5448 期现套利跟踪 2025/06/16 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -15 -905 理论价差 114 421 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 105 -455 理论价差 8 137 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. Core Views - In the stock index market, investors can focus on hedging and arbitrage opportunities arising from short - to medium - term fluctuations, and pay close attention to macroeconomic data and policy trends [4]. - For crude oil, the WTI main contract should be watched around the next resistance level of $70 per barrel. In the long - term, without major geopolitical impacts on supply, the upside for crude oil is limited [5]. - Gold price is in a range - bound pattern. Short - term fluctuations depend on the Fed's policy signals and geopolitical situations in the Middle East [7]. - Silver prices are highly volatile. Investors should be cautious of high - level pullbacks and focus on policy signals, geopolitical trends, and the divergence between speculation and fundamentals [8]. - For PTA, it may run with a short - term downward bias [9]. - Ethylene glycol prices may be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [10]. - PVC futures prices will likely oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [11]. - PP futures prices may oscillate at low levels due to weak demand [13]. - Plastic futures prices may fluctuate in the short term due to weak fundamentals [14]. - Soda ash futures are expected to continue bottom - range oscillations in the short term [16]. - Glass futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. - Rubber prices are mainly weak, but there is an expectation of a rebound after negative factors are realized [18]. - Methanol futures prices will oscillate in a short - term range, and the risk of continuous inventory accumulation should be watched [19]. - Corn futures will mainly oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short term [21]. - Peanut futures prices will adjust weakly in the short term [22]. - Cotton futures prices will run strongly in a short - term range [23]. - Live hog futures will oscillate weakly [24]. - It is recommended to wait and see for egg futures for now [25]. - Soybean No. 2 futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [26]. - Soybean meal futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [27]. - Soybean oil futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [28]. - Rapeseed meal futures' 2509 contract performance at the previous high - price platform should be watched [29]. - Rapeseed oil futures' 2509 contract will likely oscillate in a short - term range [30]. - For copper, it is recommended to relieve defenses at high prices based on the island - shaped technical pattern [31]. - Shanghai aluminum futures' 2507 contract will likely oscillate in a range [32]. - Alumina futures' 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [33]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures' 2511 contract will likely run strongly [34]. - For lithium carbonate, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive ones can operate within a range [36]. - Industrial silicon futures' 2507 contract will oscillate strongly at the bottom [37]. - Polysilicon futures' 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and the support at previous lows should be watched [37]. - Stainless steel futures are in a wide - range low - level oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [38]. - Rebar futures can be treated with a light - position, low - buying strategy in the short term [40]. - Hot - rolled coil futures can be treated with a light - position, low - buying strategy [41]. - Iron ore futures' 2509 contract will likely maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [42]. - Coking coal and coke futures will mainly oscillate recently, and attention should be paid to steel mills' inventory destocking and policy implementation [42]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Market analysis: Sino - US economic and trade consultations have reached a principle framework, the US May CPI is lower than expected, and China's May PPI remains low. The market shows a divergence in the inter - term structure of stock index futures [3]. - Reference view: Investors can focus on short - to medium - term hedging and arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to macroeconomic data and policy trends [4]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The Sino - US second - round negotiation "reached a framework agreement in principle", and the oil price broke through the key level of $65 per barrel [5]. - Market analysis: OPEC has significantly lowered future global demand growth, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased supply uncertainty [5]. - Reference view: Watch the next resistance level of $70 per barrel, and the upside is limited in the long - term without major geopolitical impacts [5]. Gold - Macro and geopolitical drivers: The US May CPI data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boosted the safe - haven demand for gold [7]. - Market performance: Gold price is in a range - bound pattern [7]. - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the Fed's policy signals and geopolitical situations in the Middle East [7]. Silver - Market price: The international spot silver price fell on June 12, and the gold - silver ratio rose [8]. - Market analysis: Weak inflation and smooth trade negotiations reduced safe - haven demand, and the price increase was mainly driven by futures speculation [8]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious of high - level pullbacks and focus on policy signals, geopolitical trends, and the divergence between speculation and fundamentals [8]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The East China spot price increased, with a discount [9]. - Market analysis: Oil price fluctuations affect costs, the overall PTA operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The polyester factory load decreased, and textile orders were weak [9]. - Reference view: It may run with a short - term downward bias [9]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The East China spot price remained unchanged, with a positive basis [10]. - Market analysis: The supply decreased slightly, the demand was suppressed by weak terminal orders, and the inventory increased [10]. - Reference view: Prices may be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [10]. PVC - Spot information: The spot prices in East China remained unchanged [11]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the social inventory decreased [11]. - Reference view: Futures prices will likely oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [11]. PP - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions showed slight changes [12]. - Market analysis: The supply increased, demand entered the off - season, and the production enterprise inventory increased [12]. - Reference view: Futures prices may oscillate at low levels due to weak demand [13]. Plastic - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions increased slightly [14]. - Market analysis: The supply capacity utilization rate increased, the downstream average operating rate changed slightly, and the inventory increased [14]. - Reference view: Futures prices may fluctuate in the short term due to weak fundamentals [14]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The mainstream prices in different regions remained unchanged [15]. - Market analysis: The supply increased, the inventory increased slightly, and the demand was average [15]. - Reference view: Futures are expected to continue bottom - range oscillations in the short term [16]. Glass - Spot information: The market prices in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - Market analysis: The supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased slightly, and the demand was weak [17]. - Reference view: Futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. Rubber - Market price: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [18]. - Market analysis: The Sino - US trade situation and oversupply have dragged down the price, and the downstream tire operating rate decreased [18]. - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate, and the price shows a pattern of slow rises and sharp falls under weak fundamentals [18]. Methanol - Spot information: The East China spot price decreased [19]. - Market analysis: The futures price rose slightly, the port inventory increased, the supply pressure continued, and the demand was weak [19]. - Reference view: Futures prices will oscillate in a short - term range, and the risk of continuous inventory accumulation should be watched [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: Corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [20]. - Market analysis: Favorable weather in the US and concerns about imports, tight domestic supply in the short term, and weak downstream demand [21]. - Reference view: Futures will mainly oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short term [21]. Peanut - Spot price: Peanut prices in different regions are provided [22]. - Market analysis: The expected increase in planting area in 2025, current low inventory, and weak supply and demand [22]. - Reference view: Futures prices will adjust weakly in the short term [22]. Cotton - Spot information: The domestic cotton spot price index and Xinjiang arrival price are provided [23]. - Market analysis: Sino - US relations have improved, long - term supply is expected to be loose, and short - term inventory is low with weak downstream demand [23]. - Reference view: Cotton futures prices will run strongly in a short - term range [23]. Live Hog - Spot market: The average price of live hogs in major production and sales areas increased [24]. - Market analysis: Support from the breeding side and weak demand [24]. - Reference view: Futures will oscillate weakly [24]. Egg - Spot market: The average egg price in the main production areas decreased [25]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply and weak demand [25]. - Reference view: It is recommended to wait and see for now [25]. Soybean No. 2 - Spot information: Import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [26]. - Market analysis: The market has digested the Sino - US trade talks, good weather in the US, and a peak in Brazilian soybean exports [26]. - Reference view: Futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [26]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are provided [27]. - Market analysis: Uncertain US tariff policies, international factors, and domestic supply pressure with weak demand [27]. - Reference view: Futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [27]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are provided [28]. - Market analysis: Increased supply pressure abroad, weak international oil prices, and increased domestic supply with weak demand [28]. - Reference view: Futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [28]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The price of rapeseed meal in Dongguan increased [29]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply in the near - term and tight in the far - term, and weak downstream demand [29]. - Reference view: Watch the performance of the 2509 contract at the previous high - price platform [29]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The price of rapeseed oil in Dongguan increased [30]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply in the near - term and tight in the far - term, neutral demand, and high inventory [30]. - Reference view: The 2509 contract will likely oscillate in a short - term range [30]. Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased [31]. - Market analysis: Complex US interest - rate cut expectations, global tariff issues, and domestic policy support. Raw material problems and inventory declines [31]. - Reference view: It is recommended to relieve defenses at high prices based on the island - shaped technical pattern [31]. Shanghai Aluminum - Spot information: The Shanghai spot aluminum price increased [32]. - Market analysis: Stable supply, weakening demand in the off - season, and inventory reduction [32]. - Reference view: The 2507 contract will likely oscillate in a range [32]. Alumina - Spot information: The national average price of alumina decreased [33]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply, increased inventory, and weak demand [33]. - Reference view: The 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [33]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The national and East China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy increased [34]. - Market analysis: Cost support, supply surplus, and weakening demand in the off - season [34]. - Reference view: The 2511 contract will likely run strongly [34]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [36]. - Market analysis: Stabilizing upstream raw materials, stable supply, and weak demand [36]. - Reference view: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive ones can operate within a range [36]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged [37]. - Market analysis: Slight increase in supply, weak demand, and slow inventory digestion [37]. - Reference view: The 2507 contract will oscillate strongly at the bottom [37]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged [37]. - Market analysis: Stable supply, weak and differentiated demand, and weak overseas demand [37]. - Reference view: The 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and the support at previous lows should be watched [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel coil remained unchanged [38]. - Market analysis: Weak cost support, high supply pressure, and weak demand [38]. - Reference view: Low - level wide - range oscillation, wait and see [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The Shanghai rebar price decreased [39]. - Market analysis: Stabilizing raw materials, low inventory, and weak demand in the off - season [40]. - Reference view: Treat with a light - position, low - buying strategy in the short term [40]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The Shanghai hot - rolled coil price remained unchanged [41]. - Market analysis: Stabilizing raw materials, low inventory, and rising apparent demand [41]. - Reference view: Treat with a light - position, low - buying strategy [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The prices of iron ore indexes and futures are provided [41]. - Market analysis: Increased supply, decreased demand, and high inventory pressure [41]. - Reference view: The 2509 contract will likely maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [42]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The prices of coking coal and coke remained unchanged [42]. - Market analysis: Supply contraction expectation for coking coal, weakening demand for both coking coal and coke [42]. - Operation suggestion: Mainly oscillate recently, pay attention to steel mills' inventory destocking and policy implementation [42].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/11 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 79260 9814 8.06 三月 78770 9730 8.13 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -1195.14 现货出口 375.79 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22170 2603 8.52 三月 21655 2636 6.39 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.70 -481.62 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20160 2472 8.15 三月 19880 2465 8.13 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.66 -1240.39 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 123050 15171 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.27 -3823.28 跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/11 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -120 -230 -370 -600 理论价差 497 892 1296 1700 锌 ...

Group 1 - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures on June 10 has seen all contracts rise, with the main contract reaching a high of 19,500 yuan and a low of 19,070 yuan, marking an increase of 4.63% [1] - Current market conditions indicate a strong upward trend for casting aluminum alloy, despite being in a traditional off-season for consumption [1] - Institutions suggest that the price difference between ADC12 and A00 is currently around -800 yuan, with historical mid-year lows typically between -1,000 to -1,500 yuan [1] Group 2 - The current spot price for ADC12 is approximately between 19,500 to 20,000 yuan per ton, with production costs at 20,086 yuan per ton, indicating a potential buying opportunity at lower prices [2] - Concerns about severe overcapacity in casting aluminum alloy production and the traditional off-season from June to August suggest a downward trend in the medium to long term [2] - The expected reasonable trading range for AD2511 is projected to be between 18,000 to 19,700 yuan per ton [2]