李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据，记录日为刚过 去的周二(如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期)。 概要 上周三鲍威尔表示，美国在新政策下，将会面对失业率上升、通胀存在上升压力，对央行来说会 是困难重重，因为大部分政策的影响在通胀和失业中只能选其一；鲍同时认为即使美股急跌，联 储局不会突然在非议息日中减息。 另一方面，联储内部曾讨论是否应停止销售债券(售卖债券的结果是将市场里的流动现金收走)，结 果他们维持销售但卖债量减少75%，所以联储局已经透过减少卖债来维持市场里较多的资金流 动。 美联储于5月7日维持息率不变的机率从三周前的55.4%升回至上周五的89%。市场认为联储还会在 6月减息的机率从两周前的73.7%跌至上周五的62.5% (即6月减息机会下降)。 特朗普想踢走鲍威尔，委任另一个自己人这样便可以立即降息。不过理论上联储运作独立于美政 府，所以 ...

这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据，记录日为刚过 去的周二(如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期)。 概要 李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 上周三鲍威尔表示，美国在新政策下，将会面对失业率上升、通胀存在上升压力，对央行来说会 是困难重重，因为大部分政策的影响在通胀和失业中只能选其一；鲍同时认为即使美股急跌，联 储局不会突然在非议息日中减息。 另一方面，联储内部曾讨论是否应停止销售债券(售卖债券的结果是将市场里的流动现金收走)，结 果他们维持销售但卖债量减少75%，所以联储局已经透过减少卖债来维持市场里较多的资金流 动。 美联储于5月7日维持息率不变的机率从三周前的55.4%升回至上周五的89%。市场认为联储还会在 6月减息的机率从两周前的73.7%跌至上周五的62.5% (即6月减息机会下降)。 特朗普想踢走鲍威尔，委任另一个自己人这样便可以立即降息。不过理论上联储运作独立于美政 府，所以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in gold investment from older generations to younger individuals, highlighting the increasing interest and participation of younger investors in the gold market, despite skepticism from older generations about the speculative nature of such investments [3][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Investment Trends - The price of gold has increased by 30% this year and 28% last year, leading some young investors to take loans and leverage their assets to invest in gold, viewing it as a guaranteed profit opportunity [5][11]. - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with central banks continuing to purchase gold, which supports the bullish trend in gold prices [12][11]. - Despite the high current gold prices, there is still optimism about future increases, although the article suggests caution regarding further investments at these levels [11][13]. Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has also been in a bull market since 2022, but its price movements tend to lag behind gold, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on the time difference between gold and silver price increases [16][22]. - The gold-silver ratio, which indicates the relative value of gold to silver, has historically averaged around 60, and significant deviations from this average suggest potential trading opportunities [28][30]. - The article notes that the recent extreme fluctuations in the gold-silver ratio are influenced by market fear and greed, as indicated by the VIX index, which has shown similar patterns in past market cycles [41][46]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article posits that while gold's price increase reflects a decline in currency credibility, silver's price movements are more speculative and tied to its industrial use rather than a return to monetary status [95][97]. - The potential for silver prices to rise is acknowledged, with projections suggesting that silver could reach prices above $40 if the gold-silver ratio stabilizes around 80 [86][87]. - The article warns that while silver may follow gold's upward trend, its lack of intrinsic value as a currency could limit its price appreciation compared to gold [96][98].

特朗普后来宣布对大多数国家的新关税暂停90天，但经济增长担忧仍挥之不去。 经济敏感性 Money Metals Exchange的总裁兼首席执行官斯特凡・格里森（Stefan Gleason）表示，值得注意的是， 白银具有"经济敏感性"。 他说，对关税带来的经济后果以及国际贸易下滑的担忧，给白银价格带来了压力。鉴于白银在工业领域 的大量应用，包括太阳能和电子应用等，经济放缓成为了白银价格的"不利因素"。 美国总统特朗普的关税政策不仅震动了全球股市，也动摇了经济前景，还破坏了白银跑赢黄金的机会。 不过，白银可能很快会迎来另一个机会。 就年初截至上月底的涨幅而言，黄金和白银的表现几乎不相上下——当时两者年内涨幅均超过14%。然 而，根据道琼斯市场数据（Dow Jones Market Data）对FactSet数据的分析，现在白银价格较一个月前下 跌了5.4%，而黄金价格已攀升至历史新高，较一个月前上涨了近11%。 BullionVault的研究主管阿德里安・阿什（Adrian Ash）表示："对于贵金属爱好者来说，黄金和白银走 势的分化既反映了人们对经济衰退担忧的程度，也提供了一个机会。" 这是因为目前白银价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant volatility due to potential import tariffs announced by U.S. President Trump, leading to a surge in copper prices and increased activity in the non-ferrous metal sector [9][11]. Non-Ferrous Metal Sector Activity - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance, with the sector index rising for three consecutive trading days. Notably, Northern Copper Industry Co., Ltd. (stock code: 000737) reached a limit-up price, achieving a three-day gain of two limit-ups [3][5]. - Other companies in the non-ferrous metal sector, such as Fuda Alloy Materials Co., Ltd. (stock code: 603045), Anhui Zhongyuan New Materials Co., Ltd. (stock code: 603527), and Xinjiang Alloy Investment Co., Ltd. (stock code: 000633), also experienced limit-up trading [5][7]. Copper Price Dynamics - COMEX copper prices reached a historical high of $5.3740 per pound, surpassing the previous record of $5.199 per pound set on May 20 of the previous year, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 30% [9][11]. - Market analysts suggest that while short-term copper prices are influenced by tariff expectations, the medium-term outlook will depend on supply and demand dynamics. Currently, the international copper market is characterized by an oversupply situation, with no significant increase in demand from China [11][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts from CITIC Futures anticipate that copper supply constraints will persist, with marginal demand recovery providing support for copper prices. They expect copper prices to exhibit a strong oscillating trend in the medium to long term [11][12]. - The long-term demand for copper is projected to be driven by growth in the power and electric vehicle sectors, indicating that while significant price increases may be limited, copper prices are likely to remain at elevated levels [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Silver may soon become the focus of investors as it is expected to experience a strong price surge, potentially reaching historical highs, despite currently lagging behind gold in performance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Year-to-date, silver prices have increased by 14.5%, slightly above gold's 14.4% rise, indicating a close correlation between the two metals [2]. - The gold-silver ratio remains high, with one ounce of gold exchanging for over 90 ounces of silver, suggesting that silver is undervalued relative to gold [2]. - The Silver Institute predicts a significant supply shortage in the global silver market by 2025, with demand expected to stabilize at 1.2 billion ounces, exceeding supply [3]. Group 2: Investment Demand - Strong investment demand, coupled with historical industrial demand for silver, is expected to create upward price momentum [3]. - The shift from net withdrawals to buying in silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) indicates a resurgence in silver investment [3]. - Concerns over tariffs and their impact on the global economy may dampen enthusiasm for industrial metals, but the actual industrial demand for silver is expected to remain robust [4][5]. Group 3: Price Projections - Analysts suggest that silver prices could rise to $40 per ounce in the coming months, with potential to exceed $50 per ounce if physical supply tightens significantly [5][6]. - There is a possibility of a surge in physical demand leading to prices reaching between $75 and $100 per ounce, driven by panic buying [6]. - The more likely scenario is that silver prices will reach between $40 and $50 per ounce by the end of the year [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to weaken starting in 2025, with the S&P 500 index down 1.7% and the Nasdaq down 5.6% year-to-date. Concurrently, funds are taking profits in gold, which has seen a cooling off after a strong performance. [2][18] Group 1: Market Trends - The CFTC data indicates that gold long positions have decreased by 15% from their peak five weeks ago, while short positions have surged by 520% from their lowest point seven weeks ago. [2][18] - The Euro gold price momentum has weakened, with European funds shifting investments from gold to military stocks due to increased military spending needs. [2][18] - Unlike previous trends, the decline in U.S. stocks has not negatively impacted global markets, with European and Hong Kong stocks remaining strong. [2][18] Group 2: Commodity Fund Positions - As of March 4, 2023, the net long position in COMEX gold has dropped to 568 tons, a decrease of 6.1% from the previous week, marking the lowest level in nine weeks. [3][5] - The net long position in COMEX silver has increased to 5,319 tons, with a 3.7% rise from the previous week, continuing a streak of 53 weeks in net long territory. [3][5] - The net long position in Nymex platinum has fallen to 4 tons, the lowest in five weeks, while the net short position in Nymex palladium remains at 35 tons, indicating a prolonged bearish sentiment. [3][6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Dollar Index has decreased by 5.6% from its peak of 109.96 on January 13 to 103.838 at the time of writing. [2][19] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at their current levels during the March meeting, with a 97% probability of no change. [14] - There is speculation that the first interest rate cut may occur between May and July 2025, depending on economic conditions. [14][15] Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for a significant downturn in the U.S. stock market in 2025 is highlighted, with expectations of reduced government spending and geopolitical risks. [22] - The article suggests that if the U.S. begins to cut interest rates while inflation pressures resurface, it could create a challenging environment for the Federal Reserve. [21][22] - The overall sentiment indicates that 2024 may be the last good year for copper, with expectations of a significant decline thereafter unless substantial infrastructure investments occur. [10][22]