周二，白银在从历史高点回落，关键技术指标显示，为期六天的反弹已将其推入超买区域；黄金在前一交易日触及六周高位后也跌超1%。 早盘，白银一度下跌2.4%。交易员一直押注供应持续紧张以及美联储将再次降息，这对无收益的贵金属是利好。然而，14日相对强弱指数（RSI）显示，近 期的投机狂热可能来得太快、太猛了，读数超过70表明动能过热。 盛宝银行的大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示，这推动了风险情绪的回暖，从而稳住了市场并引发了一些获利了结。他补充说，白银正在经历"自然回调"， 但只要价格守住每盎司54.5至55美元，大趋势就依然完好。 因市场押注白银供应将持续紧张，白银在前两个交易日上涨了超过8%。自从10月份创纪录数量的金属流入伦敦以缓解历史性的挤仓以来，其他交易中心也 面临压力。 道明证券的高级大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali在一份报告中表示："白银现在的走势已经超出了理性的动能范畴。"他指出，"所有类别的需求预期都在下降， 使得投资需求成为今天的主要驱动力"，并引用了伦敦场外交易市场实物交易疲软作为证据。 金银比也跌至一年多来的最低点，这是白银"跑得太快"的另一个指标。交易员有时将这种极端情况视为 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices surged to a record high of $58.8 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100%, outperforming gold's 60% rise [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw silver futures rise over 5% in night trading, indicating increasing market enthusiasm [1] Group 2 - Three main factors support the rise in silver prices: supply constraints, active speculative trading, and macroeconomic conditions with policy expectations [3] - Global silver inventories are under pressure, with Shanghai Futures Exchange's associated warehouse silver stocks at a nearly ten-year low [3] - The U.S. Geological Survey listed silver as a critical mineral last month, raising speculation about potential trade restrictions affecting silver circulation [3] Group 3 - Speculative trading has been a significant driver of price increases, with short-term capital inflows attracted by rapid price movements [3] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped to its lowest since August 2021, nearing 70, indicating silver's relative strength against gold [3] - The cost difference between silver call and put options has widened to the highest level since 2022, reflecting strong market sentiment for price increases [3] Group 4 - Macroeconomic conditions are supportive, with slowing U.S. economic data enhancing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [4] - Recent monitoring tools indicate a high probability of interest rate cuts, bolstered by the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed leader, who is seen as favoring accommodative policies [4] - Internationally, Japan's two-year government bond yield surpassed 1% for the first time since 2008, raising concerns about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, prompting investors to reassess asset allocations [4]

受多重因素影响，现货白银昨夜今晨持续突破历史新高，同步带动国际金价小幅走高。 截至发稿， 现货白银的历史最高价格已经达到58.8美元/盎司 ，沪银夜盘也收涨超5%。至此， 现货白银年内涨幅已经突破100% ，显著 高于现货黄金的60%。 （来源：TradingView） 与此同时， 现货黄金最高摸到每盎司4264美元，也是10月中旬创历史高位之后的六周新高 。 综合来讲，推升近期白银领头大涨的原因主要有三：供应紧张、投机性逼空，以及宏观局势引发的价值储存需求。 作为背景，今年10月大量白银涌入伦敦，以缓解全球最大白银交易中心历史性的供应紧张局面。但这也给其他全球期货交易中心带来压力， 上期所数据显示，其关联仓库的白银库存近期降至近十年最低水平。另外，白银上个月被列入美国地质调查局的关键矿产名单，关税担忧也 压制了交易商将白银运出美国的念头。 K线图和交易数据也显示，这一轮白银涨势已经显现投机逼空的态势。 法国兴业银行大宗商品策略主管大卫·威尔逊解读称："上周的走势是由投机推动的，加速的上行动量吸引了越来越多的快钱。现在需要关注 的是金银比已接近70。" 金银比是指每盎司黄金能换多少白银，目前已经触碰2021年 ...

12月1日，亚洲早盘，避险情绪再度升温，现货黄金在4220关口上方震荡；现货白银历史首次触及57美元/盎司，日内涨幅一度超过2.5%，今年以来涨幅已经 达到98%，逼近100%；COMEX白银盘中突破58美元/盎司，日内涨1.47%。 上海期货交易所的白银主力合约价格涨至13520元/公斤，涨幅超过7%，月线上已经连续上涨8个月。 白银已经连续8个月上涨 本周，美联储将进入12月会议前的"噤声期"。本周二，美联储主席鲍威尔将在一场纪念活动中发表讲话。正值"噤声期"，鲍威尔料不会发表有关货币政策相 关的重要表态。 市场焦点转向即将出炉的诸多经济数据。其中，"美联储最青睐的通胀指标"——美国9月个人消费支出（PCE）报告将于周五公布，预计9月整体PCE同比涨 幅将微升至2.8%，核心PCE价格指数同比涨幅预计将维持在2.9%不变。 据CME"美联储观察"的最新数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为87.4%，维持利率不变的概率为12.6%。美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率 为67.5%，维持利率不变的概率为9.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为23.2%。 高盛表示，美联储将在12月9—10日议息会议 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in silver prices, driven by a combination of supply-demand dynamics and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5][6]. - Silver has experienced a remarkable increase, with prices reaching $57 per ounce, marking a year-to-date gain of nearly 100% [5][6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the main silver contract price surged to 13,520 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of over 7% and marking eight consecutive months of price growth [5][6]. Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in December, with a probability of 87.4% for a 25 basis point cut, which is anticipated to support precious metal prices [4][5]. - The global silver supply has been in a state of shortage for the past five years, with increasing demand from the solar energy sector contributing to the price surge [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the current economic environment, characterized by rising inflation and a weakening job market, is favorable for silver, which possesses both precious and industrial metal attributes [7][8]. Group 3 - The inflow of speculative funds and strong fundamentals have led to silver exhibiting greater price elasticity compared to gold [8]. - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 15,610.54 tons, indicating a daily increase of 28.21 tons, maintaining high levels of investment interest [9]. - Sales of silver investment products, such as silver bars and coins, have surged by over 40% year-on-year due to the recent price increases [10].

白银已经连续8个月上涨 上海期货交易所的白银主力合约价格涨至13520元/公斤，涨幅超过7%，月线上已经连续上涨8个月。 本周，美联储将进入12月会议前的"噤声期"。本周二，美联储主席鲍威尔将在一场纪念活动中发表讲话。正值"噤声期"，鲍威尔料不会发表有 关货币政策相关的重要表态。 市场焦点转向即将出炉的诸多经济数据。其中，"美联储最青睐的通胀指标"——美国9月个人消费支出（PCE）报告将于周五公布，预计9月整 体PCE同比涨幅将微升至2.8%，核心PCE价格指数同比涨幅预计将维持在2.9%不变。 据CME"美联储观察"的最新数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为87.4%，维持利率不变的概率为12.6%。美联储到明年1月累计降息25 个基点的概率为67.5%，维持利率不变的概率为9.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为23.2%。 高盛表示，美联储将在12月9—10日议息会议上下调利率，几乎已无悬念。当前市场对25个基点降息的定价概率已达到约85%—86%。高盛固 定收益团队指出，就业市场走弱与政策风险管理需求，是促使美联储提前转向的关键因素，且无重大数据预期将改变方向，本次降息几乎板上 钉钉。 来源：21 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in spot silver prices, reaching a historical high of $58.8 per ounce, has been driven by multiple factors including supply tightness, speculative short squeezes, and macroeconomic conditions prompting demand for value storage [1][2][6]. Group 1: Price Movements - Spot silver has achieved a historical high of $58.8 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100%, significantly outpacing gold's 60% rise [2]. - Spot gold also reached a six-week high of $4245 per ounce, following its historical peak in mid-October [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent price increase in silver is attributed to supply constraints, speculative trading, and macroeconomic factors that have heightened the demand for precious metals as a store of value [6]. - Silver's inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has dropped to its lowest level in nearly a decade, exacerbating supply issues [6]. - The silver-to-gold ratio has approached 70, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics, with the ratio hitting its lowest point since August 2021 [7]. Group 3: Speculative Activity - The cost differential between bullish and bearish silver options has surged to its highest level since 2022, indicating increased speculative interest in rising silver prices [9]. - Expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have further fueled speculative trading in precious metals, with an 85% probability of a rate cut indicated by market tools [9]. Group 4: Global Economic Influences - Concerns over macroeconomic risks from Japan, including potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, have contributed to market volatility and influenced precious metal prices [11]. - The anticipated nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair, who is viewed as a "dove," has also impacted market sentiment regarding interest rates and precious metals [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have reached a new high, with spot silver surpassing $57 per ounce and domestic silver futures breaking through 13,000 yuan per kilogram, marking a significant increase of over 90% this year, outperforming gold as the strongest precious metal of the year [1] Group 1: Price Movements - On December 1, spot silver prices first exceeded $57 per ounce [1] - Domestic silver futures main contract prices also crossed the 13,000 yuan per kilogram mark [1] - Year-to-date silver price increase has surpassed 90%, significantly outperforming gold [1] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has risen to 80%, providing strong support for precious metals [1] - A weakening U.S. dollar index has further exacerbated the upward trend in silver prices [1] - Technical issues with the CME trading system have led to increased market volatility [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 75:1, indicating that silver is still undervalued relative to gold [1] - Bank of America has recently raised its silver price target for 2026 to $65 per ounce [1]

新华财经上海12月1日电 近期全球贵金属及有色板块强势延续，白银价格不断创出新高，领涨市场。截至发稿，伦敦现货白银历史首次站上每盎司57美元上 方，日内涨超2%，年内涨幅接近100%；COMEX白银主力期货合约首次突破每盎司58美元，年内涨幅超过98%；沪银期货主力合约收盘涨近6%，刷新历史 新高，年内涨幅超过77%。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达接受新华财经采访时表示，在年末交割月临近的背景下，白银市场低库存与实物流动性紧缩共同推升价格走势，同时全球资本对 战略性金属资源的配置需求与投机资金形成共振，进一步强化了市场易涨难跌的格局。 白银年内涨近100%背后 今年以来，白银接近100%的涨幅成为表现最好的资产之一，超过黄金市场61%和纳指21%的涨幅。面对通货膨胀、地缘政治担忧以及利率下行，投资者正将 贵金属视为"避风港"。此外，与黄金不同，白银的涨势还受到了人工智能、电动汽车和能源转型热潮的推动。 "白银价格短期调整后，快速上涨并突破新的历史新高，背后是宏观环境、供需格局和资金情绪三重共振的结果。"光大期货研究所有色金属研究总监展大鹏 对新华财经表示，一是当前市场对美联储12月降息的预期已升至近90%，该因素 ...

上海期货交易所的白银主力合约价格涨至13520元/公斤，涨幅超过7%，月线上已经连续上涨8个月。 截至发稿，国际银价、铜价早盘大涨后小幅回落，现货白银涨0.97%，报56.945美元/盎司，COMEX白 银涨0.5%。 12月1日，LME铜期货价格大幅拉涨，截至发稿报11249美元/吨。沪铜站上89100元/吨，大涨超2%，盘 中刷新历史新高。 本周，美联储将进入12月会议前的"噤声期"。本周二，美联储主席鲍威尔将在一场纪念活动中发表讲 话。正值"噤声期"，鲍威尔料不会发表有关货币政策相关的重要表态。 市场焦点转向即将出炉的诸多经济数据。其中，"美联储最青睐的通胀指标"——美国9月个人消费支出 （PCE）报告将于周五公布，预计9月整体PCE同比涨幅将微升至2.8%，核心PCE价格指数同比涨幅预 计将维持在2.9%不变。 据CME"美联储观察"的最新数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为87.4%，维持利率不变的概率 为12.6%。美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为67.5%，维持利率不变的概率为9.2%，累计降息 50个基点的概率为23.2%。 高盛表示，美联储将在12月9—10日议息会议上下调 ...