Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights significant volatility in silver prices, indicating a developing "short squeeze" risk in the market [1] - The current short squeeze risk in both the London and U.S. silver markets remains high, with outstanding contracts corresponding to a claim size of approximately 590 million ounces, while available physical delivery inventory is less than 50 million ounces, resulting in a coverage ratio of only about 7% [1] - The gold-silver ratio has fallen below 50 for the first time since March 2012, with historical data suggesting that such a drop typically leads to either a rise in gold prices or a decline in silver prices [1] Group 2 - In early trading, London silver prices decreased, attempting to regain bullish momentum after stabilizing at a resistance level of $92.35 [2] - The 20-period moving average at $87.11 serves as the first resistance level, with the next resistance around the recent upward trend line near $90; a breakthrough could reverse the short-term bearish trend [2] - The 50-period moving average at $81.41 is expected to act as a strong support level; a daily close below this indicator may lead to uncontrollable downward movement in silver prices [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent surge in metal prices, including gold, silver, copper, and tin, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and uncertainties in tariff policies, leading investors to seek hard assets for hedging [2] - Silver's price increase has outpaced gold, causing the gold-silver ratio to drop below 50 for the first time since March 2012, indicating potential market shifts where either gold may catch up or silver may correct [2] - The CME has tightened risk control measures, changing margin calculations for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium to a percentage of nominal value, which will require traders to increase collateral as prices rise [2] Group 2 - The latest gold T+D market analysis shows a slight decline but maintains a strong upward trend, with prices holding above the critical level of 1030 yuan per gram, supported by factors such as expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased global central bank gold purchases [3] - Technical indicators suggest continued bullish momentum, with key support levels identified between 1025-1028 yuan per gram and resistance levels moving up to 1035-1040 yuan per gram, with a potential challenge of the psychological level of 1050 yuan per gram [3] - The market is characterized by strong demand for safe-haven assets, high trading volumes, and robust bullish sentiment, driven by geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar index [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply after reaching historical highs earlier in the year [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 15, 2026, gold prices fell below $4600, while silver dropped below $90 per ounce, with silver experiencing a decline of over 6% [1]. - Earlier in the month, gold had reached a record price of over $4640, and silver had briefly surpassed $93 per ounce, marking their strongest annual performance since 1979, with gold up approximately 65% and silver nearly 150% year-over-year [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has fallen below 50 for the first time since March 2012, indicating that silver may no longer be considered cheap relative to gold [4]. - The recent surge in metal prices is attributed to concentrated buying in the Chinese market and rising geopolitical risks, which have heightened market demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals [4]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Short-term price movements in precious metals are influenced by geopolitical disturbances and political changes, with a high risk premium present [5]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive due to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. midterm elections [5]. - The current global trade and financial environment, characterized by "de-globalization" and "de-dollarization," is seen as beneficial for gold's investment and hedging value [6].

展望后市，金银预计呈现震荡偏强态势。技术面上，COMEX黄金在有效突破后，下一阻力位或看向 4800美元/盎司附近；白银在资金推动下弹性凸显，但金银比处于极端低位也预示其波动性风险极高。 操作上坚定持有黄金作为底仓，将白银视为高风险的动量交易标的。 分析师：顾冯达 周三晚间，金银强势突破，再创新高。纽约黄金主力合约上涨0.8%，报4635.70美元/盎司，盘中创下 4650.50美元新高；沪金主力合约上涨0.46%，收于1039.72元/克。白银更显强劲，盘中触及纪录高位 89.215美元，纽约白银主力合约大幅上涨5.8%，报91.385美元/盎司，盘中触及纪录高位93.56美元/盎 司；沪银主力合约跟涨4.40%，收于23270元/千克。 周三晚间，美元指数收跌。宏观层面，美联储内部对政策路径分歧明显，卡什卡利称"一月份没有降息 的必要"，而保尔森认为"今年晚些时候小幅降息可能合适"。褐皮书显示美国各地区经济增长不均，博 斯蒂克强调需维持限制性政策。经济数据方面，美国11月零售销售增长超预期，PPI微涨，去年三季度 贸易逆差收窄。地缘政治方面，伊朗局势持续紧张。特朗普虽称伊朗"杀戮"停止，但美国正从中东撤出 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 文章来源：金十数据 白银周四早盘大幅走低。现货白银日内一度重挫超6美元，跌超6%，截至发稿报88.3美元/盎司，从周三 的历史高位回落。此前美国总统特朗普暂缓对进口关键矿产加征新关税，但并未排除此可能性。 随着特朗普表示将就确保关键矿产充足供应进行双边协议谈判，市场对美国对白银、铂金和钯金加征关 税的担忧暂时得到缓解。根据周三晚些时候的一份声明，他提出了对进口产品设定价格底线——而不仅 仅是基于百分比的关税，以发展供应链。 "该命令表明政府在未来决策中将采取更具针对性的方式，"道明证券（TD Securities）高级大宗商品策 略师丹尼尔·加利（Daniel Ghali）在一份报告中写道。这"显著减轻了市场的一种忧虑，即担心广泛的关 税措施可能会在无意中冲击那些作为基准金属价格定价基础的实物银条。" 此前，由于地缘政治、供应和关税的不确定性，投资者转向硬资产，周三金属价格曾广泛上涨，导致白 银和黄金以及铜和锡创下新高。中国和美国的疯狂购买以及更广泛的大宗商品投资推动了该行业的发 展。 由于银价涨势持续超过黄金，金银比跌破50大关，为2012年 ...

2026.01.15 本文字数：2139，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 此前，英伟达凭借人工智能概念股热潮，一直在全球金融市场占据领先地位。但长期被视为传统避险资 产的白银，依托贵金属属性与工业实用价值的双重加持，上演了一场出人意料的逆袭。 从历史上看，黄金一直是这两种贵金属中价值更高的品种，在金融与贸易领域常被奉为 "金本位"的标 杆。然而，随着市场趋势与工业需求的转变，白银的价值正在被挖掘。 据企业市值数据平台companiesmarketcap 显示，持续创下历史新高的白银，在周三市值突破5万亿美 元，超过英伟达成功跻身全球价值第二高的资产，仅次于黄金。 首先通胀会侵蚀纸币储蓄的价值，促使更多人投向白银等有形资产。而地缘政治不确定性以及最新升级 的美联储独立性担忧的局面，可能会为白银价格进一步冲高创造必要条件。 全球央行与政府政策对贵金属的价值有着显著影响。历史上，央行一直将黄金作为储备资产，但如今部 分投资者和政府对白银的兴趣正日益浓厚。若央行采取行动丰富储备资产组合，也可能增加对白银的需 求，从而影响其市场价格。 推动白银这一轮涨势的并非只有避险资产需求。供需平衡是一个不可忽视的因素 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: January 15, 2026 - Report Type: Commodity Research - Analysts: Liu Yuxuan - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0020476 - Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Platinum is in a state of shock adjustment, while palladium follows with a slight pullback [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 630.65 with a 4.23% increase; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 2402.70 with a 2.77% increase. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 495.50 with a 2.53% increase; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1882.50 with a - 0.24% change [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For domestic platinum, trading volume was 38,859 kg with a change of 40,702 from the previous day, and open interest was 8,055 kg with a change of 419. For NYMEX platinum, trading volume was 46,885 kg with a change of 1,308, and open interest was 103,814 kg with a change of - 1,535. Similar data is provided for palladium [1]. - **ETF Holdings**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,284,147 with a change of 5,863; palladium ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 1,190,229 with a change of - 1,661 [1]. - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 624,345 with no change; NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 210,908 with no change [1]. - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads are provided, such as the spread between PT9995 and PT2606, and the spread between domestic platinum 2606 and 2610 contracts, as well as spreads considering VAT for domestic and international prices of platinum and palladium [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **US Economic Data**: US November PPI increased slightly month - on - month, and retail sales growth exceeded expectations. The third - quarter last year recorded the smallest trade deficit since the second quarter of 2023 [4]. - **Iran Situation**: Trump said he was informed that Iran's "killing" had stopped and there was no execution plan; US officials said the US was withdrawing personnel from multiple major bases in the Middle East; the Trump administration obtained a list of 50 high - value Iranian military targets; the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said it had reached the highest state of combat readiness and increased missile inventory; US reconnaissance planes flew along the Iranian border; many countries urged their citizens to leave Iran [4]. - **US Supreme Court**: On January 9, the US Supreme Court did not rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, and the next ruling window is next Tuesday or Wednesday [4]. - **Chip Tariffs**: Trump proposed a 25% tariff on imported chips not used in US AI, and the White House may expand the scope of chip import tariffs in the near future [4]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The gold - silver ratio fell below the 50 mark for the first time since March 2012 [4]. - **Japan's Warning**: Japan's finance minister and the highest foreign exchange official warned against excessive yen fluctuations [4]. - **Denmark's Action**: The Danish Ministry of Defense confirmed the increase of troops in Greenland [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of platinum is 0, and that of palladium is also 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 3.4 Other Information - Exchange - related information: The US dollar index was 99.08 with a - 0.06% change; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate (CNY spot) was 6.98 with a 0.06% change; the US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate (CNH spot) had a 0.12% change; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.90 with a - 0.03% change [1].

本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；国际和国内价格换算方法，国际价格×汇率÷31.1≈国内价格！ 随着白银多头的加速，黄金明显拖了后腿，自然金银比快速下降，目前跌破50关口。根据我们黄金年度分析报告，金银比跌破50尤其是跌至40及下方，一定 要引起重视！要么黄金上涨补上来，要么白银被拉下来！当然，这只是历史经验，并非绝对！ 据最新消息，特朗普暗示暂缓对伊军事行动，局势暂时降温；不排除这是特朗普打击前的诱导性策略，让伊朗放松警惕。英国媒体表示，特朗普政府已获50 个伊朗高价值军事目标清单。伊朗革命卫队称已达最高战备状态，导弹库存已增加。另外，多国敦促其公民离开伊朗。所以，继续关注伊朗局势，一旦冲突 爆发，避险将推动黄金加速上涨。 美国最高法院未就特朗普关税的合法性作出裁决，一样继续关注这个消息，时间下周二周三。凌晨，美联储褐皮书显示经济活动温和增长，但就业停滞。美 联储卡什卡利：特朗普的威胁实际是货币政策问题，一月份没有降息的必要。博斯蒂克称控制通胀的挑战尚未取得胜利，需继续采取限制性政策。 特朗普表示，对未用于美国AI的进口芯片征收25%关税。白宫发言人表示，近期或将扩大芯片进口关税范围。 今天的 ...

首先通胀会侵蚀纸币储蓄的价值，促使更多人投向白银等有形资产。而地缘政治不确定性以及最新升级的美联储独立性担忧的局面，可能会为白银价格进一 步冲高创造必要条件。 周三，今年势如破竹的白银期货价格再次大涨，连续攻克90-93共四个整数关口。过去五年间，白银价格稳步攀升，2025年开启的这轮涨势尤为引人注目， 区间累计涨幅已超过200%。 在持续通胀、美元走弱、各国央行需求上升以及投资者在经济不确定性中寻求避险资产等多重因素的共同作用下，大量资金 正涌入白银市场。那么，白银 何时可以跨越近在咫尺的100美元呢？ 历史性超越 据企业市值数据平台companiesmarketcap 显示，持续创下历史新高的白银，在周三市值突破5万亿美元，超过英伟达成功跻身全球价值第二高的资产，仅次 于黄金。 此前，英伟达凭借人工智能概念股热潮，一直在全球金融市场占据领先地位。但长期被视为传统避险资产的白银，依托贵金属属性与工业实用价值的双重加 持，上演了一场出人意料的逆袭。 从历史上看，黄金一直是这两种贵金属中价值更高的品种，在金融与贸易领域常被奉为 "金本位"的标杆。然而，随着市场趋势与工业需求的转变，白银的 价值正在被挖掘。 不过 ...

前景如何 从历史上看，黄金一直是这两种贵金属中价值更高的品种，在金融与贸易领域常被奉为 "金本位"的标 杆。然而，随着市场趋势与工业需求的转变，白银的价值正在被挖掘。 首先通胀会侵蚀纸币储蓄的价值，促使更多人投向白银等有形资产。而地缘政治不确定性以及最新升级 的美联储独立性担忧的局面，可能会为白银价格进一步冲高创造必要条件。 全球央行与政府政策对贵金属的价值有着显著影响。历史上，央行一直将黄金作为储备资产，但如今部 分投资者和政府对白银的兴趣正日益浓厚。若央行采取行动丰富储备资产组合，也可能增加对白银的需 求，从而影响其市场价格。 推动白银这一轮涨势的并非只有避险资产需求。供需平衡是一个不可忽视的因素。白银拥有众多工业用 途，其需求正呈现结构性增长，在电动汽车和太阳能电池板领域的需求增长尤为显著。以太阳能电池板 为例，其光伏电池严重依赖白银来实现光能到电能的转换。鉴于各国政府和企业正大力投资可再生能 源，该领域的白银需求必将持续上升，进而可能推动其价值上涨。 另一方面，白银市场的潜在风险与不确定性还在于特朗普政府已经将其纳入关键矿产清单，投资者担忧 美国或对其加征关税 ——若实施将锁定已流入美国的白银，叠加中 ...