Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Under the suppression of high capacity, as demand gradually enters the off - season, freight rates will be under pressure in the future [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 closed at 2139.0 with a 1.33% increase, volume of 1302, and a decrease of 329 in open interest [1]. - EC2510 closed at 1468.7 with a 0.60% increase, volume of 66330, and an increase of 4148 in open interest [1]. - EC2512 closed at 1738.0 with a 0.17% increase, volume of 5748, and an increase of 374 in open interest [1]. - EC2602 closed at 1532.0 with a 0.70% increase, volume of 1400, and a decrease of 27 in open interest [1]. - EC2604 closed at 1386.1 with a 1.18% increase, volume of 1782, and an increase of 160 in open interest [1]. - EC2606 closed at 1514.2 with a 0.62% increase, volume of 153, and an increase of 14 in open interest [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2508 - 2510 spread was 670.3, compared to 651.0 the previous day and 680.4 two days ago [1]. - EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 269.3, compared to - 275.0 the previous day and - 235.0 two days ago [1]. - EC2512 - 2602 spread was 206.0, compared to 213.7 the previous day and 196.8 two days ago [1]. Spot and Index Data - SCHIS on 2025/7/28 was 2316.56, with a - 3.50% decrease from the previous period [1]. - SCFI on 2025/7/25 was 2090 dollars/TEU, with a 0.53% increase from the previous period [1]. - CCFI (European Line) on 2025/7/25 was 1787.24, with a - 0.90% decrease from the previous period [1]. - NCFI on 2025/7/25 was 1422.9, with a - 1.20% decrease from the previous period [1]. - TCI on 2025/7/18 was 1054.56, with a - 0.75% decrease from the previous period [1]. European Line Supply and Demand - In August and September (temporarily), the average weekly capacity is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in week32/33/34/35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure, especially in the second half of August [1]. - There is a transfer of capacity from the US line to the European line in the schedule. Supported by the minimum cargo volume of shipping companies, the loading rate of shipping companies in late July was not under great pressure. There is still some support from the minimum cargo volume in the first half of August, with MSK having good cargo intake and OA and PA being relatively average. Overall, the cargo volume is gradually weakening and entering the off - season [1]. Recent European Line Quotation - Downstream is currently booking space for early August (week31 - 32). The price remained stable in July, around 2400 points. In week32 of August, it landed at about 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points). MSK quoted 2800 dollars for week33, and other shipping companies mainly followed the previous quotes [2]. Week33 Changes - On Tuesday, HPL reduced the price by 200 to 3100 dollars. MSK opened at 2800 dollars and then raised it to 2860 dollars [3]. - On Wednesday, MSC reduced the price by 300 to 3340 dollars, and OOCL reduced the price by 200 to 3200 - 3300 dollars [3]. Related News - On 7/31, the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected the Canadian Prime Minister's statement about planning to recognize the State of Palestine, stating that Canada's change of stance at this time is a reward for Hamas [4]. - On 7/31, a US White House official said that Trump believes recognizing the State of Palestine would be a reward for Hamas and he does not think they should be rewarded [4]. - On 7/31, Trump announced a trade agreement with South Korea, including a 15% tariff and a 350 - billion - dollar investment [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core View of the Report - The current prices of EC contracts on the container shipping index (European line) futures show a mixed trend. The opening price of the futures was low today mainly because Maersk's new - week opening quotes continued to decline, dragging down the valuation of near - month contracts. The market is relatively cautious about far - month contracts due to uncertainties such as Sino - US tariffs and the Middle East situation. Looking ahead, the overall EC may still show a slightly downward oscillating trend, and the results of the new round of Sino - US negotiations can be monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with full capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1800 - 1900 to lock in profits [1]. - For those who want to book cabins according to orders and are worried about rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1350 - 1450 to determine booking costs in advance [1]. Market Situation of EC Contracts - As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed trends. For the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 308 to 26,146, short positions decreased by 16 to 31,521, and trading volume decreased by 11,589 to 54,713 (bilateral) [1]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positive Factor**: Netanyahu stated that Israel will continue to fight until hostages are released and Hamas is defeated, and will cooperate with international organizations and Western countries to ensure aid to Gaza [2]. - **Negative Factor**: Maersk's new - week European line opening quotes were lower than the previous week [2]. EC Basis and Price Changes - **Basis Changes**: On July 30, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 205.56 points, with a daily increase of 72.20 points and a weekly increase of 54.76 points; for EC2510, the basis was 856.56 points, with a daily increase of 42.80 points and a weekly increase of 4.06 points [2]. - **Price Changes**: On July 30, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2111.0 points, with a daily decline of 3.31% and a weekly decline of 6.17%; the closing price of EC2510 was 1460.0 points, with a daily decline of 2.85% and a weekly decline of 5.68% [4]. Container Shipping Spot Quotes - On August 14, Maersk's 20GP opening quote from Shanghai to Rotterdam decreased by $60 compared to the previous week, and 40GP decreased by $100. Currently, they have rebounded to $1705/TEU and $2850/FEU respectively. In mid - August, Evergreen's 20GP total quote from Shanghai to Rotterdam decreased by $100 compared to the same period, and 40GP decreased by $200 [6]. Global Freight Rate Index - The latest value of SCFIS for the European route was 2316.56 points, a decrease of 83.94 points (-3.50%) from the previous value; the latest value of SCFIS for the US - West route was 1284.01 points, a decrease of 17.8 points (-1.37%) [7]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On July 29, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 1.987 days, a decrease of 0.377 days from the previous day; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.049 days, an increase of 0.156 days from the previous day [12]. Ship Speed and Number of Waiting Ships - On July 29, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.912 knots, an increase of 0.119 knots from the previous day; the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor increased by 8 to 19 compared to the previous day [21].

2025年7月30日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 部分班轮公司小幅下调运价,多空博弈下盘面涨跌互现,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 7月28日 | 7月25日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2400.50点，较上期下跌0.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1110.57点，较上期下跌3.26% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1301.81点，较上期上涨2.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1422.9点，较上期下跌1.20% | | 7月25日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1120.51点，较上期下跌5.19% 7月25日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1592.59点，较上期下跌54.31点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1261.35点，较上期下跌3.2% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2090USD/TEU, 较上期上涨0.53% | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the spot price of PA Alliance freight rates has likely emerged, with the rate revised down to $3,100 per FEU [1][4] - The August contract experiences high - level fluctuations, and the top of the freight rate has likely appeared. The delivery settlement price of the August contract may be around 2,200 points [4] - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of the freight rate [5] - The December contract follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [7] - The year 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries [8] - The strategy includes a sideways movement for the main contract, a long - 12 and short - 10 arbitrage strategy, and shorting the October contract on rallies [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 79,692.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 81,678.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1,562.30, 1,382.00, 1,506.90, 2,244.90, 1,583.90, and 1,779.90 respectively [7] II. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping companies for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route show different price levels and trends. For example, Maersk's Week 31 price is 1907/3214, and Week 32 is 1815/3050 [1] - On July 18, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $2,079.00 per TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was $2,142.00 per FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was $3,612.00 per FEU. On July 21, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2,400.50 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1,301.81 points [7] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From July to September 2025, the weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route shows different levels. August has 3 blank sailings from the OA Alliance, and there are 2 TBNs in August and 4 in September. Maersk will add two additional ships in Week 32 and Week 34 [3] - As of July 20, 2025, 151 container ships with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 47 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 705,300 TEU and 7 ships above 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU have been delivered [8] IV. Supply Chain - There is geopolitical influence. The US Middle East envoy stated that the US will withdraw from the Doha cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas due to Hamas' lack of sincerity [2] - Information on ship congestion ratios, speeds of different - sized ships, and the number of container ships passing through major canals such as the Suez, Cape of Good Hope, and Panama is presented in the figures, although specific data in the text analysis is not elaborated [57][67][75] V. Demand and European Economy - Figures show data related to port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, EU 27 imports from China, euro - zone consumer confidence index, EU 27 retail sales year - on - year, and China's export volume to the EU and total export volume, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [76][77][88]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: EC Futures Contracts - EC2508: Yesterday's closing price was 2239.7, down 0.44%, with an open interest of 11039, a decrease of 1354 [2] - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1537.0, down 0.71%, with an open interest of 50131, a decrease of 1603 [2] - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1701.8, down 0.40%, with an open interest of 8446, a decrease of 87 [2] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1477.3, up 1.15%, with an open interest of 4094, an increase of 112 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1324.0, up 0.32%, with an open interest of 5800, an increase of 262 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1468.8, up 0.60%, with an open interest of 807, an increase of 28 [2] Group 3: Month Spread - EC2508 - 2510: The previous day's spread was 702.7, with a target ratio of 1.0 and a week - on - week increase of 119.5 [2] - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 164.8, with a target ratio of - 4.1 and a week - on - week increase of 10.2 [2] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 224.5, with a target ratio of - 23.7 and a week - on - week decrease of 46.1 [2] Group 4: Shipping Indexes - TT Index: Updated weekly, announced on July 21, 2025, at 2400.5 points, down 0.89% from the previous period [2] - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, announced on July 18, 2025, at 2079 dollars/TEU, down 0.95% from the previous period [2] - CCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, announced on July 18, 2025, at 1803.42 points, up 4.46% from the previous period [2] - NCFI: Updated weekly, announced on July 18, 2025, at 1440.25 points, up 0.35% from the previous period [2] - TCI: Updated daily, announced on July 18, 2025, at 1054.56 points, down 0.75% from the previous period [2] Group 5: European Line Market Analysis - European Line Demand in August: The weekly average capacity in August is as high as 320,000 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 8%. However, there is still support for cargo at the beginning of August. The market may remain stable or see a slight decline in some routes in the next half - month [2] - Recent European Line Quotations: Downstream is currently booking spaces for early August (week 31 - 32). In July, prices remained stable at around 2400 points. In August, although some shipping companies announced price increases, currently, most shipping companies are still using the previous prices, with MSK (shanghai - rotterdam) reducing the price by 100 to 2900 dollars and MSK (shanghai - antwerp) keeping the price stable at 2900 dollars, and MSK's加班船 (BEIJING MAERSK) quoting 2700 dollars [2] Group 6: News - July 24: The Israeli military said it was advancing military operations in northern Gaza, launching air strikes on more than a hundred military targets [3] - July 23: According to the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation, Hamas has made a preliminary response to the mediators' proposal regarding Gaza. The Israeli president told soldiers in Gaza that intensive negotiations were underway, hoping for good news soon [3] - July 23: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Chinese and US economic and trade officials will hold the third round of trade consultations in Stockholm, Sweden next week [3]

宏观金融团队 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 24 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货7月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2508 | 2,276.1 | 2,238.0 | 2,239.7 | 2,212.3 | -36.4 | -1 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The futures prices of the container shipping index (European routes) are expected to briefly return to a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the actions of other shipping companies and changes in the spot cabin quotes on European routes [2]. 3. Summary by Section EC Risk Management Strategy - For companies with full capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1800 - 1900 to lock in profits [1]. - For those hoping to book cabins according to orders and prevent rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1350 - 1450 to set the booking cost in advance [1]. Market Performance - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European routes) opened with a volatile downward trend and then rebounded slightly. At the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed results [2]. - For the EC2510 contract, long - positions increased by 1029 lots to 26261 lots, short - positions increased by 845 lots to 31963 lots, and trading volume decreased by 2955 lots to 79201 lots (bilateral) [2]. Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - The spot cabin quotes on European routes of MSC and COSCO Shipping in mid - early August have increased [3]. - Israeli Defense Minister Katz said that Israel may attack Iran again, which has a slight positive impact on market sentiment [5]. Negative Factors - Maersk's new weekly opening quotes on European routes have significantly decreased compared to the previous week [4]. EC Basis Changes - On July 23, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 160.80 points, with a daily increase of 10.00 points and a weekly decrease of 108.14 points; EC2510 was 863.50 points, with a daily increase of 11.00 points and a weekly increase of 39.66 points; EC2512 was 698.70 points, with a daily increase of 6.90 points and a weekly increase of 35.76 points [4]. Spot Cabin Quotes - Maersk's 20GP and 40GP total quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes in late July and early August increased compared to the previous period. MSC and COSCO Shipping's 20GP and 40GP total quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes in mid - early August also increased compared to the previous week [8]. Global Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS European route index decreased by 0.89% to 2400.5 points, the SCFIS US - West route index increased by 2.78% to 1301.81 points. Other indexes also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [9]. Port Waiting Time - The waiting times of Hong Kong, Shanghai, and other ports on July 22, 2025, showed different changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year [16]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - The speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships on July 22, 2025, increased slightly compared to the previous day. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor remained unchanged at 30, less than 7 in the same period last year [24][25].

Group 1: EC Futures Contract Information - EC2508 had a closing price of 2468.7 with a 4.28% increase, a volume of 14033, and an open interest of 11574 with a decrease of 1671 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1676.4 with a 1.93% increase, a volume of 76841, and an open interest of 54063 with an increase of 1346 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1860.4 with a 1.90% increase, a volume of 9640, and an open interest of 8392 with an increase of 169 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1513.9 with a 0.62% increase, a volume of 1336, and an open interest of 3867 with a decrease of 8 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1370.2 with a 1.51% increase, a volume of 2779, and an open interest decrease of 45 [2] - EC2606 had a closing price of 1465.7 with a 0.77% increase, a volume of 104, and an open interest of 742 with an increase of 25 [2] Group 2: Month - Spread Information - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 69.7 on the reporting day, compared to 792.3 the previous day, 722.6 two days ago, and 652.9 three days ago, with a weekly change of 237.4 [2] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 3.0 on the reporting day, compared to - 184.0 the previous day, - 181.0 two days ago, and - 178.0 three days ago, with a weekly change of - 23.1 [2] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 25.3 on the reporting day, compared to 346.5 the previous day, 321.2 two days ago, and 295.9 three days ago, with a weekly change of 50.9 [2] Group 3: Index Information - The SCHS index was 2400.5 on 2025/7/21, with a - 0.89% change from the previous period and a 7.26% expected change in the next period, updated weekly on Mondays [2] - The SCFI index was 2079 dollars/TEU on 2025/7/18, with a - 0.95% change from the previous period and a - 0.10% expected change in the next period, updated weekly [2] - The CCFI (European line) index was 1803.42 on 2025/7/18, with a 4.46% change from the previous period and a 1.90% expected change in the next period, updated every Friday [2] - The NCFI index was 1440.25 on 2025/7/18, with a 0.35% change from the previous period and a - 0.50% expected change in the next period, updated on Fridays [2] - The TCI index was 1054.56 on 2025/7/18, with a - 0.75% change from the previous period and no expected change in the next period, updated daily [2] Group 4: Capacity and Price Information - In August, the weekly average capacity is 320,000 TEU, an 8% increase from the previous period, and the market may remain stable or see some shipping companies' quotes decline slightly in the next half - month [2] - In July, the overall price remained stable at around 2400 points, and in the fifth week (week 31) of July, the quote was 3400 dollars, equivalent to around 2400 points on the futures market [3] - In August, multiple shipping companies announced price adjustments: EMC increased by 100, CMA increased by 400, HPL increased by 200, MSC increased by 200, MSK (Shanghai - Rotterdam) decreased by 100 to 2900 dollars, and MSK (Shanghai - Antwerp) remained stable at 2900 dollars [3] Group 5: Related News - On 7/23, Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, including a 15% tariff and a 550 billion - dollar investment in the US [4] - On 7/23, it was reported that the cease - fire negotiation in Gaza had made significant progress, and relevant parties were discussing the deployment scale and location of Israeli troops in certain areas, with an expected agreement [4] Group 6: Index Delay Note - The XSI - C index is delayed by three working days [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping capacity in August is relatively high, with an average weekly capacity of 320,000 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 8%. However, there is still support from base cargo at the beginning of August. In the next half - month, the market may remain stable or see a slight decline in quotes from some shipping companies [1]. - The downstream is currently booking shipping space for early August (week 30 - 31). The quotes were stable throughout July, around 2400 points. In the fifth week of July (week 31), the quote was $3400, equivalent to around 2400 points on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a closing price of 2367.3, a change of 33.2, a trading volume of 11341, and an open interest of 13245 [1]. - For different EC futures contracts, there were various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest. For example, EC2510 had a closing price of 1644.7, a change of 755.8, a trading volume of 72757, and an open interest of 52717 [1]. - The month - to - month spreads also showed different trends. For instance, the spread between EC2508 - 2510 was 722.6, with a day - on - day increase of 69.7 [1]. Spot Freight Rate Index - SCHI2 on July 21, 2025, was 2400.5 points, a decrease of 0.89% compared to the previous period [1]. - SCFI on July 18, 2025, was $2079 per TEU, a decrease of 0.95% compared to the previous period [1]. - CCFI on July 18, 2025, was 1803.42 points, an increase of 4.46% compared to the previous period [1]. - NCFI on July 18, 2025, was 1440.25 points, an increase of 0.35% compared to the previous period [1]. - TCI on July 18, 2025, was 1054.56 points, a decrease of 0.75% compared to the previous period [1]. Recent European Line Quotes - The downstream is booking space for early August. Quotes were stable in July, around 2400 points. In week 31 of July, the quote was $3400, equivalent to around 2400 points on the futures market [2]. - On July 21, CMA lowered its quotes. The quote at the end of July decreased from $3645 to $3445, from $4145 to $3745 in early August, and from $5245 to $4145 in late August [2]. Related News - On July 19, Hamas reached a comprehensive cease - fire agreement, but Israel rejected it. Hamas was ready for a long - term battle and was willing to release all hostages in Gaza as part of the cease - fire agreement [3]. - On July 21, the Israeli Defense Forces started a ground operation in southern Deir al - Balah in the central Gaza Strip [3]. - On July 22, US President Trump hoped to end the conflict in Gaza through negotiation, achieve a cease - fire, and secure the release of all hostages [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rates in the container shipping industry are currently at a high level and are expected to remain volatile. The 8 - month contract is in a high - level oscillation and game - based delivery situation, while the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - position allocation, and the 12 - month contract is affected by the potential resumption of the Suez Canal [3][4]. - The strategies include the main contract oscillating, an arbitrage strategy of going long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and shorting the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes show different price levels for various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in the 31st week is 1855/3110, and HPL's 8 - month first - half - month shipping schedule quote is 2235/3535 [1]. - Geopolitically, there has been "significant progress" in the Gaza cease - fire negotiations. The weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route in July is 303,500 TEU, and in August it is 310,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August, mostly from the OA alliance. Maersk will add two additional ships in August [2]. 2. Contract Analysis - **8 - month contract**: The freight rate is in high - level oscillation. The estimated average freight rate in the first half of August is about $3200/FEU. The final settlement price of the 08 contract may be around 2200 points [3]. - **10 - month contract**: It is a off - season contract, mainly for short - position allocation. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Attention should be paid to whether Maersk's pricing strategy will change due to the addition of two ships in August [4]. - **12 - month contract**: The regular pattern of peak and off - season still exists. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. Usually, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 17, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures is 84,091 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 80,457 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1485.70 and EC2508 at 2164.50 [5]. - On July 11, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is $2099/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is $2194/TEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is $4172/FEU. On July 14, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2421.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1266.59 points [5][6]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries. As of July 11, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU. Among them, 46 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have a total capacity of 689,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [6]. 5. Strategies and Risks - **Strategies**: The main contract oscillates. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. - **Risks**: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and American economies, a sharp drop in oil prices, unexpected ship deliveries, insufficient ship idling, and a good resolution of the Red Sea crisis. Upward risks include the recovery of the European and American economies, supply chain issues, significant capacity reduction by liner companies, and the continuous fermentation of the Red Sea crisis leading to ship detours [7].