岁末年初，中央经济工作会议召开定调明年经济，海外美联储降息潮后催化全球资产配置再平衡。2026 年新历将至之际，12月19日，招商基金召开2026年度内部投资策略会，汇聚内外部投研力量，围绕宏观 经济和投资策略进行展望，并就AI科技和周期地产等重点关注方向剖析细分赛道机遇与挑战。 宏观经济：宏观稳态、结构分化与科创突进 回顾2025年经济增长表现，前三个季度GDP累计同比5.2%超过5%目标。招商基金研究部首席经济学家 李湛认为，"两新两重"政策使内需体现出引擎作用，消费与制造业投资对GDP增长形成支撑，净出口对 GDP增长拉动仅次于消费。流动性总体充裕、结构分化，近三年通胀也稳定在低位水平，政策目标以稳 为主和经济结构转变共同造就"新稳态"：过去三年GDP增速目标保持在5%左右，标志着中国经济调控 思路从"增量追赶"转向了"质稳量优"的成熟阶段。中国经济当前主线更多在于经济转型，即经济动能转 向更多由消费和科技创新共同驱动，在"稳规模"的同时更聚焦"调结构"，为中长期高质量发展夯实基 础。 值得注意的风险点有三：一是房地产的拖累作用还未出清，地产修复比大家预期晚；二是房地产连带的 地方政府化债压力大，挤压政 ...

值得注意的风险点有三：一是房地产的拖累作用还未出清，地产修复比大家预期晚；二是房地产连带 的地方政府化债压力大，挤压政策空间；三是外需不确定性依然存在，对增长的拉动可能下降。 "新稳态"下，中国经济增长模式逐渐从地产拉动转向创新驱动，基建和高技术产业接棒房地产拉动经 济增长。 但转型期间，房产价格下降到企稳向上或还需一定时间，需要关注可能带来的疤痕效应， 具体体现在居民消费及投资可能长时间趋于谨慎。 回归到权益市场，当前中国类资产负债表衰退背景下，开启了一轮估值修复与资产轮动驱动的行情。 综合来看，2026经济全年增长依旧承压，投资下滑势头有望低位企稳，消费缓慢抬升，出口有韧 性，价格温和改善，进而带动名义GDP上行，企业盈利或持续修复，这将成为市场的基本面支撑。据 此， A股有望从估值抬升带来的"急而促"行情逐渐过渡到盈利支撑的"缓而慢"的行情。 行业配置来 看， 现代化产业和产能出海是趋势，科技依旧是主线 。此外， 基于外需增长和供需逻辑改善的涨价 链条值得重视 。 投资策略：三重多元化推动再平衡 招商基金多元策略与投资创新部资深研究员王婧表示，2026年投资策略可以概括为"三重多元化推动 再平衡"： 第 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant net buying from northbound capital, totaling HKD 79.09 billion, with notable interest in technology stocks and a cautious approach from investors as they await policy changes in the new year [1]. Group 1: Northbound Capital Inflows - Northbound capital recorded a net buying of HKD 79.09 billion, with HKD 22.18 billion from the Shanghai Stock Connect and HKD 56.91 billion from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1]. - The most purchased stocks included Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Meituan-W (03690), and Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) [1]. - The largest net sell-offs were seen in China Mobile (00941) and CNOOC (00883) [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net inflow of HKD 15.72 billion, with total transactions of HKD 30.01 billion [2]. - Meituan-W (03690) recorded a net inflow of HKD 4.61 billion, with total transactions of HKD 8.66 billion [3]. - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a net inflow of HKD 10.62 billion, with a future focus on R&D investment of HKD 200 billion over five years [4]. Group 3: Sector Insights - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is expected to rebound significantly with potential policy catalysts in the new year [5]. - Longi Green Energy (06869) received a net inflow of HKD 4.13 billion, with plans to use proceeds from a new share placement to expand overseas [5]. - China Life (02628) had a net inflow of HKD 3.13 billion, with expectations of valuation recovery due to stabilizing long-term interest rates [6]. Group 4: Market Trends - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981) received a net inflow of HKD 2.17 billion, with its market share closely approaching that of Samsung [7]. - Overall, the top ten foundries saw a revenue increase of 8.1% quarter-over-quarter, indicating a positive trend in the semiconductor industry [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong technology sector is experiencing significant volatility due to tightening overseas liquidity expectations and profit-taking, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling nearly 20% from its October peak [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) has seen net subscriptions for 34 consecutive days, with over 1 billion yuan in subscriptions on December 16 [1] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term investment value of the Hang Seng Tech remains recognized by institutions [1] Group 2: Valuation Insights - According to Dongwu Securities, the valuation of leading AI technology stocks in Hong Kong is considered reasonable in the medium to long term [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index's price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 23 times, significantly lower than the NASDAQ's 41 times, and is at a historically low percentile [1]

Core Insights - The "2025 Fashion Global Tour and Shenzhen Fashion Week" aims to redefine fashion trends, rejuvenate business districts, and enhance consumer experiences through digital retail and cultural engagement [1][2] - The event highlights the integration of AI technology, high-end jewelry, and traditional fashion, showcasing local brands and their vision for future fashion trends [1] - The Water Bay business district reported impressive figures for 2025, with total revenue exceeding 155 billion yuan, over 120 million visitors, and online exposure surpassing 15 billion views, indicating strong industry influence [1] Industry Developments - A "live-streaming fashion" initiative was launched, featuring industry experts to promote "Shenzhen Design" and "Water Bay Jewelry" on a broader scale, aiming to activate brand value and capture global market opportunities [2] - Awards were presented to establish industry standards and promote integrity, with notable recognitions for Shenzhen Seg Electronics Market, 24 exemplary merchants, and Poly Hotel, highlighting their roles in high-quality development of Shenzhen's fashion consumption [2] - The event serves as a significant platform for local fashion innovation, reflecting the vitality and vision of Shenzhen's fashion industry, with a focus on technological integration and cultural confidence [2]

Macro Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation on imported pork and pork products from the EU, concluding that dumping exists and imposing tariffs ranging from 4.9% to 19.8% effective from December 17, 2025, for a period of five years [2] Employment and Labor - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security emphasized the importance of stabilizing employment as the primary task, aiming to enhance laborers' income and implement various measures to support employment stability [3][4] Industry Development - Guangzhou's government released a plan to build a green and low-carbon modern industrial system, targeting significant growth in six future industries and aiming to establish a modern industrial system by 2035 [5] Financial Institutions - Morgan Stanley expressed optimism about Chinese assets, predicting improved corporate earnings and a supportive policy environment for market valuation [6] - A Bank of America survey indicated a strong investor sentiment heading into the new year, with a confidence index reaching 7.4, the highest in four and a half years [7] Market Data - On December 16, the market experienced a decline, with major indices falling and a total trading volume of 1.72 trillion yuan, a decrease of 49.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [10] - The financing balance of the two markets increased by 4.839 billion yuan, reaching a total of 24.80855 trillion yuan as of December 15 [11] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 1.54%, with the technology index down 1.74% on December 16 [12] Company Dynamics - XPeng Motors received a Level 3 autonomous driving road test license in Guangzhou, initiating regular testing on high-speed roads [13] - Ant Group's AI health app "Antifufu" surged to the third position on the Apple app store after its release, with over 15 million monthly active users [14] - The construction of the sixth unit of the Ningde Nuclear Power Project commenced, utilizing China's self-developed third-generation nuclear technology, expected to significantly reduce carbon emissions [15] - Century Huatong announced the cancellation of 56.1208 million repurchased shares, reducing its total share capital from 7.428 billion shares to 7.372 billion shares [16]

市场表现 今日市场呈现结构性分化。科网、半导体、医药及黄金等个股普遍走弱，而航空股表现坚挺，成为市场 少有的亮点。 有分析指出，临近年末市场观望情绪浓厚，南向资金以防守策略为主，多数机构投资者正等待明年一季 度政策"开门红"带来的布局机会。 不过部分机构仍对后市持乐观态度。广发证券最新研报指出，2025年春季躁动行情大概率不会缺席，主 要基于以下判断： 流动性环境改善：日本套息交易对市场冲击有限;港股解禁高峰期已然过去;美联储新任主席政策取向大 概率偏鸽派。 潜在上行催化剂：DeepSeek大模型技术进展有望提振市场情绪；国内互联网巨头C端应用创新可能推动 恒生科技指数基本面实质性改善。 需要特别指出的是，港股历史上的"春季躁动"行情通常发生于圣诞节前至春节前这一时段(约12月22日 至次年2月20日)，而非传统认知中的春节后至两会期间。 科技股承压 机构看好中长期价值 截至收盘，腾讯音乐-SW(01698.HK)跌3.44%、阿里巴巴-W(09988.HK)跌2.96%、网易-S(09999.HK)跌 2.37%。 智通财经12月16日讯（编辑 胡家荣）今日港股三大指数集体下跌。截至收盘，恒生指数跌1.54 ...

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a V-shaped recovery this week, initially declining before rebounding, with the Hang Seng Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index closing down by -0.45%, -0.42%, and -0.43% respectively [5][15] - Value stocks and large-cap stocks outperformed, while growth stocks weakened. The financial and information technology sectors were the only ones to see gains, increasing by 0.88% and 0.34% respectively [5][15] - The energy sector faced significant declines, dropping by 5.35% due to weak international oil prices and lowered profit expectations [15] Valuation Levels - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index stands at 83.39%, indicating that the valuation level is close to one standard deviation above the 5-year average [5] Buyback Statistics - The buyback market saw increased activity this week, with 81 companies participating, up by 6 from the previous week. The total buyback amount reached 5.219 billion HKD, an increase of 198 million HKD from last week [27] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buyback activity with a total of 3.178 billion HKD, followed by Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with 699 million HKD [27] Macro Environment Tracking - The overall profitability of the Hong Kong stock market is heavily reliant on Chinese state-owned enterprises, with over 80% of profits coming from mainland China, indicating a strong correlation with the economic conditions in China [39][40] - Key economic indicators show that China's trade value for the first 11 months of the year reached 41.21 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with exports growing by 6.2% and imports by 0.2% [39][40] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for "practicing internal skills to cope with external challenges," highlighting a shift in focus towards quality and efficiency in economic growth [43] Sector Outlook - The report suggests a favorable outlook for sectors benefiting from policy support, including new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology. Additionally, low-valuation state-owned enterprises and local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility stocks are expected to perform well during the interest rate easing cycle [5][43]

Core Viewpoint - The company is launching a series of live investment sharing events titled "One Step Ahead to Prosper in the New Year - 2026 Year-End Investment Sharing Gala" starting December 18, aimed at helping investors review the market trends of 2025 and plan for investment directions in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event will feature 17 investment research experts and include 12 high-quality themed live broadcasts focusing on multi-asset allocation and various industry themes [1]. - The series aims to cater to investors with different risk preferences and interests, providing insights and thoughts to better capture long-term investment opportunities [1]. Group 2: Content Focus - The live broadcasts will cover three main dimensions: asset allocation, industry insights, and strategy outlook [1]. - In asset allocation, topics will include active equity, bond markets, gold assets, overseas markets, pension planning, and quantitative investment, analyzed in the context of current events like the "14th Five-Year Plan," Federal Reserve interest rate meetings, and the third anniversary of personal pension policies [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights and Strategy - The industry insights segment will focus on investment themes such as AI technology, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, new energy, and military industry, providing in-depth analysis of industry development trends [2]. - The strategy outlook will be presented by Dr. Wu Youhui, General Manager of the Macro Strategy Department, offering a macroeconomic and market outlook for 2026 to guide investment directions for the new year [2]. Group 4: Engagement and Accessibility - The event will feature account managers from the investment management department as hosts, facilitating in-depth discussions and addressing market and industry questions from investors [4]. - The live broadcasts will be accessible through multiple platforms, including the company's official app and video account, providing a comprehensive and timely investment research experience [4]. Group 5: Educational Initiative - The "Heart Bridge Journey" brand represents the company's commitment to connecting with investors and promoting value, long-term, and rational investment philosophies [5]. - Since its inception in 2005, the initiative has conducted over 7,000 offline educational activities and more than 600 live broadcasts, reaching millions of investors nationwide [5].

Core Viewpoint - Warmwa Technology is facing significant challenges in its IPO process, including financial data expiration, scrutiny from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and concerns over its business model and financial health [1][3][19] Financial Performance - Warmwa Technology reported a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65.5% in revenue over the past three years, with projected revenues of RMB 9.44 billion for 2024 and RMB 4.31 billion for the first half of 2025 [3][5] - The company has accumulated a net loss of RMB 718 million from 2022 to the first half of 2025, with losses of RMB 2.23 billion, RMB 2.40 billion, RMB 1.55 billion, and RMB 998.8 million for each respective period [5][6] - Adjusted net profit turned positive in 2023 at RMB 18.5 million, with projections of RMB 57.5 million for 2024 and RMB 24.9 million for the first half of 2025, indicating a shift towards profitability [6][10] Revenue Concentration - The company relies heavily on its largest client, ZhongAn Online, which accounted for 78.7%, 61.8%, 45.2%, and 49.6% of its revenue from 2022 to the first half of 2025 [13][14] - The concentration of revenue among the top five clients was 92.3%, 82.9%, 78.9%, and 73.6% over the same period, raising concerns about client diversification [14] Technology and Competitive Risks - Warmwa Technology claims to be the largest independent AI technology company in China's insurance industry, but it relies on open-source models like Qwen2.5 and DeepSeek-V3, which may pose risks related to compliance and competition [16][17] - The company acknowledges that its bargaining power with large insurance clients is weak, which could impact its ability to maintain margins and profitability [12] Regulatory Environment - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has indicated a tightening of IPO review processes, emphasizing the need for higher quality and compliance standards in listing applications [19] - Warmwa Technology's IPO timeline is under pressure due to the impending expiration of its financial data validity and the overall uncertainty in the IPO market [1][19]