智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克——此举受到法律质疑，并且库克 此后在一份声明中强调特朗普无权这么做，且她不会辞职。对于特朗普最新的这一威胁言论，华尔街分 析师们普遍认为，这与其说是针对库克本人，不如说是彻底针对美联储货币政策独立性。 如果库克离职，特朗普可能掌控四个美联储FOMC货币政策委员会席位，距离"彻底掌控美联储货币政 策"将更近一步。由于市场普遍预期特朗普将任命立场更为鸽派的人选接替库克，消息传出后，美元全 线走软，短期美债收益率下跌，在美联储独立性受到威胁之下，市场避险情绪以及对于高估值科技巨头 们的恐慌情绪大幅升温，推动避险资产黄金以及白银受到市场避险资金热切追捧，尤其是当前黄金现货 与期货价格距离创下历史新高可谓越来越近。。 黄金资产的市场结构层面，盛宝银行称，全球央行主导的官方部门买盘仍是市场的无声支柱，而各国储 备管理者们近期因"美国例外论"逐渐崩塌而倾向"多元化资产"与提升对制裁相关的韧性而增加了黄金与 白银配置。 独立溢价 "无论法律结果如何，信号都很明确：美联储所面临的来自特朗普政府的政治压力正在上升，随着时间 推移，它可能会在美国资产中引入一种所谓的" ...

【文/观察者网 陈思佳】当地时间8月25日，美国总统特朗普以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由，宣布解除 美联储理事莉萨·库克（Lisa Cook）的职务。随后，库克发表声明，称特朗普无权解雇她，将继续履 职。 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）26日报道称，在美联储111年历史里，这是首次有美国总统试图解雇美联 储理事。特朗普"史无前例"的举动表明，他与美联储之间的矛盾正迅速升级。特朗普重返白宫后一直要 求美联储降息，但美联储还是连续八个月维持利率不变。 库克的律师已经表示："我们将采取一切必要措施，阻止他（特朗普）试图采取的非法行动"。 尚不清楚库克是否会离开美联储，特朗普的命令可能在法庭上遭到质疑，甚至可能上诉到美国最高法 院。但如果库克的职位被解除，特朗普可能有机会提名其他人填补库克的席位。 此前，拜登提名的另一名美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）意外提前辞职，为特朗普提 供了机会。特朗普已任命其重要经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）填补该空缺。库格勒任期原本 将于2026年1月31日结束，预计米兰将完成其剩下任期。 特朗普25日在社交媒体上发布了一封给库克的信，他写道："鉴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of former President Trump's actions against the Federal Reserve, suggesting that his attempts to undermine its independence could threaten the stability of the U.S. dollar and the broader financial system [1][5][10]. Group 1: Trump's Actions and Motivations - Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve, including the dismissal of board member Lisa Cook, to lower interest rates in an effort to stimulate the economy and reduce debt costs ahead of the midterm elections [1][4][10]. - The urgency behind Trump's actions is linked to rising inflation and unemployment in the U.S., as well as the significant national debt of $36 trillion, which incurs over $1 trillion in interest annually [4][10]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Independence - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 to prevent financial crises, designed to be an independent entity that balances power between the government and private banks [7][8]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining confidence in the U.S. dollar and preventing inflation, as historical instances of political interference have led to severe economic consequences [9][11]. Group 3: Potential Consequences - Trump's actions could lead to a loss of confidence in the Federal Reserve, prompting global investors to sell off U.S. dollars and bonds, which could destabilize the financial system [10][12]. - The article warns that undermining the Federal Reserve's independence for personal political gain could have dire repercussions, as seen in past instances where political pressure led to rampant inflation [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining financial market stability and economic health, and any erosion of this independence could have profound and multifaceted impacts on both domestic and global financial markets [1][4]. Impact on US Financial Markets - Dollar depreciation and capital outflow may occur if the Federal Reserve's independence is compromised, leading to a decline in the dollar's safe-haven status and potential capital flight to more stable regions [4]. - Bond market turmoil and rising yields are expected as market confidence in the Federal Reserve's decisions diminishes, potentially leading to a "stock-bond-currency triple whammy" scenario where simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds occur due to fears of inflation [2][4]. - The market's skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's independence could drive up U.S. Treasury yields as investors demand higher risk premiums amid increased policy uncertainty [4]. Spillover Effects on Global Financial Markets - Emerging markets may face significant pressure as capital flows reverse, leading to currency depreciation and increased asset price volatility [4]. - A restructuring of the global financial order could be prompted by the erosion of the dollar's dominance, accelerating the process of "de-dollarization" and increasing the international use of currencies like the euro and yuan [4]. Long-term Economic and Institutional Impacts - The risk of stagflation may rise if political interference leads to monetary policy that deviates from data-driven principles, undermining long-term growth potential [2][5]. - The credibility of central banks could be damaged, leading to regulatory challenges and a loss of effectiveness in oversight [3][5]. Market Reactions and Investor Strategies - Investors are beginning to adjust their strategies, such as shorting the dollar and betting on interest rate cuts, while closely monitoring personnel changes and policy signals from the Federal Reserve [8]. - Central bank reserve managers are reportedly reducing dollar investments due to the deteriorating political environment in the U.S., opting for diversified reserve assets instead [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the fundamentals remain unchanged, demand is at the end of the off - season, and there is no upward driving force. With short - term large - scale fluctuations being unlikely, it is advisable to focus on range trading [9] - For lithium carbonate, the market is close to the peak season, with demand providing support at the bottom and limited decline. However, it is easily affected by industry news, so cautious operation is recommended [11] - For crude oil, although the price has rebounded, the subsequent consumption peak season is ending, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. It is recommended to sell on rallies [12] - For asphalt, with both supply and demand being weak and the cost - side support strengthening, the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term [14] - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit on the 09 - 01 reverse spread [15][16] - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term [17] - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate downward due to its own fundamental pressure [19] - For coking coal, the market sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals have no significant changes, with the price oscillating at a high level [20] - For urea, it is in a weak consolidation stage. It is advisable to short on rebounds in the short term, and there is support at the bottom [22] Summaries by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 26, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Peanut, log, and 20 - gauge rubber rose slightly. Alumina and coking coal dropped by over 3%, while industrial silicon, container shipping to Europe, coke, and polysilicon dropped by over 2%. Glass, soda ash, and styrene dropped nearly 2%. Among stock index futures, IF dropped 0.22%, IH dropped 0.40%, IC rose 0.17%, and IM dropped 0.10%. Among treasury bond futures, TS rose 0.01%, TF rose 0.04%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.47% [6] Capital Flow - As of 15:18 on August 26, in terms of capital inflow in domestic futures main contracts, alumina 2601 had an inflow of 373 million, Shanghai copper 2510 had an inflow of 332 million, and 30 - year treasury bond 2512 had an inflow of 196 million. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 4.638 billion, CSI 1000 2509 had an outflow of 4.034 billion, and CSI 500 2509 had an outflow of 3.377 billion [7] Analysis of Specific Varieties Copper - Supply: Codelco adjusted its production target downward. The port inventory of refined copper ore has decreased, and the TC/RC fees are rising. The sulfuric acid price is high, supporting smelter profits. The production of refined copper is expected to remain stable in the short term, but there may be production cuts in the later third quarter [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm, with new orders increasing but market trading volume decreasing. The real estate sector is a drag, but the power grid and new energy bring demand resilience [9] - Inventory: The inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating weak short - term demand [9] Lithium Carbonate - Price: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,700 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [10] - Supply: The production from August to September is expected to decline by 15% year - on - year. Yichun Yinli has resumed production, but CATL has not [11] - Demand: After the price correction, downstream purchasing sentiment has been stimulated, and there is support at the bottom [11] Crude Oil - Inventory: EIA data shows that the inventory of crude oil and gasoline has decreased more than expected [12] - Production: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [12] - Price: Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia in September [12] Asphalt - Supply: The asphalt production rate has decreased, and the planned production in August is 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% from the previous month [14] - Demand: Affected by factors such as funds, rainfall, and high temperatures, the demand is weak [14] PP - Supply: The new capacity of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP is planned to be put into production in August, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased slightly [15] - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, but there may be an improvement during the peak season [15] Plastic - Supply: The new capacity of Jilin Petrochemical's HDPE was put into operation at the end of July, and the plastic production rate has increased [17] - Demand: The agricultural film is gradually emerging from the off - season, but the raw material replenishment is not strong [17] PVC - Supply: The PVC production rate has decreased, and new capacities are being put into production [18][19] - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, and the export outlook is not optimistic [18][19] Coking Coal - Supply: The import volume in July increased significantly, and the domestic production has rebounded [20] - Demand: The downstream coke production enthusiasm has improved, but the steel mill profits have weakened [20] Urea - Supply: The daily production is around 190,000 tons, and there are maintenance plans this week, with production expected to decrease [21] - Demand: The industrial demand has some resilience, but is affected by environmental protection restrictions. The inventory is at a high level [21][22]

Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced a slight pullback, dropping to $3365.55, a decrease of approximately 0.18% from a two-week high [1] - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.77% at 45282.47 points, the S&P 500 down 0.43% at 6439.32 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.22% at 21449.29 points [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Developments - President Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Cook, citing sufficient reasons based on constitutional and legal grounds [1][3] - Trump accused Cook of "fraudulent and potentially criminal behavior" in financial matters, which he claimed undermined her credibility as a regulator [4] - If Cook is removed, Trump could appoint a fourth member to the Federal Reserve Board, potentially gaining a majority in the seven-member board [6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicated a 16.7% probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September, while an 83.3% probability suggested a 25 basis point rate cut [6] - Major Wall Street institutions have become increasingly optimistic about the U.S. stock market, with several firms raising their year-end targets for the S&P 500 index [8] - Citigroup raised its S&P 500 year-end target from 6300 to 6600, while UBS increased its 2025 target from 6200 to 6600 [8] Group 4: U.S.-India Trade Relations - The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced a 50% tariff on all goods imported from India, effective August 27 [8] - Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar stated that trade negotiations with the U.S. are ongoing, emphasizing the need to protect local farmers and small businesses [8] Group 5: U.S.-South Korea Relations - Trump discussed with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol the potential transfer of land ownership for U.S. military bases in South Korea, aiming to eliminate rental agreements [9] - Trump expressed a desire to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un again, indicating a positive relationship and potential future discussions [12]

【冠通研究】 沪铜震荡运行 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 26 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜高开高走，日内下挫尾盘翻绿。特朗普签署行政令罢免美联储理事库克， 加剧市场对美联储独立性的担忧，铜价承压。供给方面，智利国有铜业公司（Codelco） 上调对于事故损失的估计，下调了 2025 年的产量目标，5 月精炼铜产量同比增长 14.0%，精铜矿港口库存去化至近五年低位水平，冶炼厂 TC/RC 费用继续企稳回升，长协 订单有盈利，现货订单依然亏损，硫酸价目前处于历史同期高位水平，支撑冶炼厂利 润，目前 8 月仅 1 家冶炼厂有检修计划，且华东新投产的冶炼厂开始生产，预计精铜产 量波动幅度不大，冶炼厂三季度后期或因矿端资源偏紧及硫酸胀库而减产停产。需求方 面，下游需求表现为不温不火，新增订单有增加，市场成交量环比减少，房地产依然拖 累下游需求，1-7 月房地产开发投资同比下降 12%，新建商品房销售面积同比下降 4%。 但电网及新能源带来需求韧性。上期所库存本周表现为累库，反映了短期内需求疲软， 供需宽松的格局。综合来看，基本面暂无明显变动，需求处于淡季尾端，无向上驱动 力。昨日美联储降息预期升温提振铜行情，今日美 ...

Group 1 - The French CAC index has dropped by 2%, reflecting overall market concerns about potential political instability in France [1][3] - France's government debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 115%, making it one of the highest in Europe, prompting Prime Minister François Bérou to propose an annual spending cut of €44 billion [3] - The upcoming confidence vote on the spending cut proposal is expected to fail, leading to fears of either fiscal tightening or increased political uncertainty in France [3] Group 2 - Former President Trump is attempting to remove Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, which could impact the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [1][4] - If successful, Trump's actions could result in three out of twelve FOMC members being appointed by him, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [4] - The yield spread between 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has widened to its highest level since 2022, indicating market apprehension regarding economic stability [4] Group 3 - Trump has threatened to impose a 200% tariff on China if it does not supply sufficient rare earth magnets to U.S. companies, escalating trade tensions [5] - The digital services tax (DST) imposed by certain countries, particularly in Europe, is also under threat, with Trump warning of significant tariff increases unless these taxes are revoked [5] - The DST currently generates approximately £800 million annually for the UK Treasury, which is already facing financial constraints ahead of the autumn budget [5]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and could lead to a shift towards more dovish monetary policy, impacting the U.S. dollar and increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on the U.S. Dollar - Following the news of Cook's dismissal, the U.S. dollar weakened across the board, and short-term Treasury yields fell, while safe-haven assets such as gold and Bitcoin saw increased demand [3][6]. - Analysts suggest that Trump's actions may undermine trust in the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, leading investors to reassess risks associated with the U.S. market [3][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence Concerns - Trump's move has reignited doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with analysts expressing concerns that this could compromise the Fed's ability to maintain an unbiased monetary policy [5][6]. - The potential for Trump to appoint more dovish members to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raises expectations for further interest rate cuts, which could further weaken the dollar [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Market reactions have been relatively muted, with some analysts indicating that the full extent of potential risks has not yet been priced in, suggesting high uncertainty moving forward [9][10]. - There is an increased expectation for rate cuts in September and throughout the year, but concerns remain about Trump's potential influence over other Federal Reserve officials [11].

库克于2022年5月被美国前总统约瑟夫·拜登任命为美联储理事，是美联储的首位非裔女性理事。她的任期原本应到2038 年。今年以来，她一直支持美联储观望，拒绝因特朗普施压而降息。 库克聘请了知名辩护律师阿贝·洛厄尔担任其法律代表。洛厄尔表示，特朗普再次通过社交媒体"炒人"，展示了他的行 为缺乏正当程序和法律依据。洛厄尔宣布将采取一切所需手段，阻止特朗普的非法行为。洛厄尔曾经的客户包括特朗普 的女儿伊万卡、特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳、拜登的儿子亨特以及民主党前参议员罗伯特·梅嫩德斯。 特朗普在25日早些时候通过社交媒体宣布解雇库克，并提到了其盟友、美国联邦住房金融局局长比尔·普尔特对库克的 指控。普尔特指控库克在2021年申请贷款时，先后将在密歇根州和佐治亚州的两处房产都申报为主要居所。根据美国的 贷款规定，主要居所比次要居所和投资房产的贷款条件更宽松。普尔特指责库克伪造银行文件和房产记录以获得更宽松 的贷款条件。特朗普认为此事说明库克存在欺骗行为还可能违反刑法，没有资格再担任美联储理事。 在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普史无前例宣布解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克后，库克发表声明"硬刚"特朗普。美国国会民主党人 也集体发声谴责 ...