行 业 及 产 业 国防军工 相关研究 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 24 日 期待"十五五"订单陆续落地，加 大军工行业关注度 看好 ——国防军工行业周报（2025 年第 48 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数下跌 1.72%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 2.87%，同期上证综指下 跌 3.9%，沪深 300 下跌 3.77%，创业板指下跌 6.15%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创业 板指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 1.72%的跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 4 位。2、从我们构建的 军工集团指数变化来看，上周 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai 180 Index (000010) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with GAC Group (601238) leading with a 10.00% increase, followed by AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760) up 3.59%, and 360 Security Technology (601360) up 3.49%. Industrial Fulian (601138) is the biggest loser [1] - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) is currently priced at 1.17 yuan, reflecting the performance of the Shanghai 180 Index, which selects 180 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity from the Shanghai stock market [1] - Dongguan Securities indicates that factors such as the "14th Five-Year Plan" policy guidance, capital market policy developments, and the backdrop of declining interest rates continue to positively influence the market [1] Group 2 - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index include Kweichow Moutai (600519), Zijin Mining (601899), and Ping An Insurance (601318), with these stocks collectively accounting for 26.29% of the index [2] - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund has several off-market connection options, including Ping An's various linked funds [2]

新华社澳门11月23日电（记者 刘刚 齐菲 郭雨祺）22日至23日，学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神 中央宣讲团在澳门特区为中央驻澳机构和中资企业代表、澳门特区管治团队、社会各界人士进行了三场 宣讲，并赴横琴粤澳深度合作区调研及交流。 中央宣讲团成员，中国科学院院长、党组书记侯建国分领域介绍"十五五"时期对推进中国式现代化 具有重大牵引、驱动、支撑作用的战略任务和重大举措。他表示，"十五五"规划建议提出加强原始创新 和关键核心技术攻关，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合，一体推进教育科技人才发展、深入推进数字 中国建设等部署，建议澳门加强和大湾区其他城市协同合作，加大应用场景建设和开放力度，加快重大 科技成果高效转化利用，培育发展新质生产力。他还建议澳门充分发挥中葡商贸合作服务平台作用和自 由港、单独关税区优势，助力内地企业"走出去"，共同参与高质量共建"一带一路"，打造高水平对外开 放桥头堡，在畅通国内国际双循环中发挥更大作用。 中央宣讲团成员，中央财经委员会办公室副主任、中央农村工作领导小组办公室副主任祝卫东围绕 党的二十届四中全会的重大意义，"十五五"时期我国经济社会发展形势任务、指导方针和主要目标作出 全面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee and the directives from General Secretary Xi Jinping, focusing on high-quality development and the responsibilities of the national-level new area [1][2]. Group 1: Achievements and Responsibilities - The achievements of the new area over the past year were acknowledged, highlighting its role as a key engine for high-quality development, a source of technological innovation, and a testing ground for reforms [2][3]. - The need to align thoughts and actions with the important speeches of General Secretary Xi Jinping and the decisions of the Central Committee was stressed, particularly in the context of the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [2][3]. Group 2: Development Strategies - The focus on high-quality development as the primary task was reiterated, with an emphasis on monitoring, problem identification, project acceleration, and enhancing public welfare [2][4]. - Key strategies include strengthening the main areas of the park, supporting project development, and enhancing the core enterprises [3][4]. Group 3: Safety and Discipline - The importance of maintaining safety in various sectors, including transportation and fire safety, was highlighted, along with the need for ongoing risk assessments and governance [2][4]. - A call for a disciplined and capable workforce was made, emphasizing the need for unity and commitment to high-quality development [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a unified credit market in China as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" to enhance market efficiency and optimize the business environment, which is crucial for achieving strategic goals [3][5][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Importance of a Sound Credit System - A robust credit system is fundamental for improving financial services to the real economy, as it enhances market efficiency and resource allocation [5][6]. - The credit system is essential for modern financial operations and risk pricing, impacting financing costs and systemic risk management [4][6]. 2. Current Challenges in Credit Market Construction - There are four main shortcomings in China's credit market: limited accessibility to credit services, low proportion of credit financing, inadequate credit infrastructure, and insufficient credit rating and pricing [6][7][8]. - Over 90% of small and micro enterprises have never received bank loans, indicating a significant gap in credit service availability [6]. - Credit loans account for less than 40% of total loans among major banks, with a slow development of the credit bond market [7]. 3. Progress in Credit System Construction - Since the 18th National Congress, significant strides have been made in credit system construction, including the establishment of a national credit information sharing platform that has collected over 807 billion pieces of credit information [5][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" calls for a unified, open, competitive, and orderly market system, highlighting the growing importance of the credit market [5][11]. 4. Recommendations for Credit Market Development - Emphasizing the need to recognize credit as a valuable economic resource, the article suggests that enterprises should manage credit as a core asset [12][14]. - It advocates for the establishment of high-standard credit infrastructure and a unified credit evaluation standard to enhance the efficiency of credit information sharing [15][18]. - The article calls for the digitalization and intelligent transformation of credit assessment processes to better reflect real-time business conditions [19][20]. 5. Enhancing Credit Management Capabilities - Companies are encouraged to adopt credit management as a strategic priority, integrating it into their operational frameworks [21][22]. - The establishment of public platforms for credit services aimed at small and micro enterprises is recommended to improve their credit management capabilities [22].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 11 23 年 月 日 近半月，仍多聚焦"十五五"科技、重大项目、财政政策发力等，我们对 每半月重大政策进行跟踪：1）中央、部委重要会议与政策；2）地方政策； 3）行业与产业政策。本期为近半月（11.10-11.23）政策跟踪。 核心结论：总体看，近半月政策仍聚焦谋划"十五五"良好开局，具体有 6 大焦点：一是 11.16 总书记《求是》发表重要文章《因地制宜发展新质生产 力》，呼应"十五五"规划建议稿，要求"各地要坚持从实际出发，有选择 地推动新产业、新模式、新动能发展"；二是 11.22 总理出席 G20 峰会，就 "包容和可持续经济增长"议题发表讲话，聚焦协同应对世界经济增长乏 力、分歧矛盾等焦点问题，呼吁"坚定维护自由贸易，建设开放型世界经济； 坚持求同存异，通过平等协商妥处纷争摩擦"；三是 11.14 国常会部署深入 实施"两重"建设工作，要求把"两重"建设放在"十五五"全局中谋划和 推进，突出"战略性、前瞻性、全局性"，关注 2026 年全国两会后发布"十 五五"规划纲要全文，应会明确新一批重大项目"清单"；四是 11.14 财政 部 ...

本报澳门11月23日电 （记者富子梅）22日至23日，学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神中央宣讲团在澳 门特区为中央驻澳机构和中资企业代表、澳门特区管治团队、社会各界人士进行了三场宣讲，并赴横琴 粤澳深度合作区调研及交流。 中央宣讲团成员，中国科学院院长、党组书记侯建国分领域介绍"十五五"时期对推进中国式现代化具有 重大牵引、驱动、支撑作用的战略任务和重大举措。他表示，"十五五"规划建议提出加强原始创新和关 键核心技术攻关，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合，一体推进教育科技人才发展、深入推进数字中国 建设等部署，建议澳门加强和大湾区其他城市协同合作，加大应用场景建设和开放力度，加快重大科技 成果高效转化利用，培育发展新质生产力。他还建议澳门充分发挥中葡商贸合作服务平台作用和自由 港、单独关税区优势，助力内地企业"走出去"，共同参与高质量共建"一带一路"，打造高水平对外开放 桥头堡，在畅通国内国际双循环中发挥更大作用。 中央宣讲团成员，中央财经委员会办公室副主任、中央农村工作领导小组办公室副主任祝卫东围绕党的 二十届四中全会的重大意义，"十五五"时期我国经济社会发展形势任务、指导方针和主要目标作出全面 系统深入的解读 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the need for a systematic and categorized approach to rural revitalization, moving away from the traditional model of isolated village development to a more integrated, area-based strategy [2][3][6]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests leveraging the "Ten Million Project" experience to enhance rural infrastructure, public services, and living environments through orderly and categorized advancement [2][6]. - The article outlines a classification system for villages, focusing on different development strategies based on their characteristics, such as enhancing industrial development in clustered villages and promoting urban-rural integration in suburban villages [6][7]. Group 2 - The area-based approach to rural revitalization involves grouping adjacent villages with similar functions and industries to promote coordinated planning, resource integration, and collective development [3][7]. - It is crucial to respect farmers' opinions and ensure their rights are protected while implementing area-based strategies, avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach [7]. - The article stresses the importance of practical effectiveness and the role of market mechanisms in the area-based advancement of rural revitalization, advocating for a gradual and thoughtful implementation process [7].

Market Performance - The A-share market has shown poor profitability this week, with only 11% of respondents reporting profits, while 89% reported losses [7] - Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% this week [2] - The overall market sentiment indicates a bearish outlook, with 38% of respondents expecting the market to trade sideways and unable to reach 4000 points [8] Sector Performance - All major industry indices saw declines, with the power equipment sector leading the losses at 10.54%, followed by comprehensive and basic chemical sectors [3] - The banking sector experienced the smallest decline at 0.89%, indicating relative stability compared to other sectors [3] Fund Flow - A total of 249.32 billion yuan in net outflow was recorded from A-share main funds this week, with all 31 major industry sectors experiencing net outflows [3] - The power equipment, electronics, and pharmaceutical sectors saw the highest net outflows, amounting to 50.52 billion yuan, 38.39 billion yuan, and 25.76 billion yuan respectively [3] Investor Sentiment - A survey indicated that 26% of investors increased their positions, while 18% reduced their holdings, reflecting a cautious approach to market conditions [4] - The proportion of investors holding less than 50% of their positions increased, indicating a shift towards more conservative investment strategies [4] Future Outlook - Respondents remain optimistic about the long-term trend of the A-share market, with 50% believing the Shanghai Composite Index could reach 4000 points [10] - The military industry sector has seen a significant increase in positive sentiment, rising by 9 percentage points to 12%, indicating growing interest in this area [12] Industry Trends - The military industry is expected to experience significant growth driven by domestic and international demand, with key factors including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and military trade developments [13] - Analysts predict a shift towards high-end demand and improved financial health within the military sector, with a focus on new combat capabilities and military-civilian integration [13]

Core Insights - The rapid development of China's new energy industry is highlighted, with a focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" achievements and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing energy security and the transition to a new energy system [1][5][9]. Group 1: Industry Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to promote quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and new energy storage as new economic growth points [1]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's energy consumption structure improved significantly, with the average cost of global wind power projects decreasing by over 60% and solar photovoltaic (PV) project costs dropping by over 80% in the past decade [3][5]. - The new energy sector is expected to transition from subsidy-dependent growth to a market-driven high-quality development phase during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [15]. Group 2: Technological Trends - The solar PV industry is focusing on optimizing silicon technology to maintain cost advantages, with a shift towards using less silver and more affordable metals like copper and aluminum [7]. - Lithium-ion batteries, particularly lithium iron phosphate batteries, are projected to dominate the new energy storage market, maintaining over 90% market share in the next five years [9]. - The integration of digital technologies in energy management is becoming crucial for enhancing operational efficiency and enabling smart decision-making in the energy sector [26][27]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global market for energy equipment is expected to reach approximately $1.27 trillion in 2024, with significant growth potential in the energy digitalization sector, projected to reach $173 billion by 2025 [27][28]. - The focus is shifting from merely increasing installed capacity to achieving efficient collaboration across the energy system, enhancing the penetration and reliability of new energy sources [11]. - The energy storage industry is urged to achieve equal treatment in capacity pricing with other flexible resources, emphasizing the need for fair compensation for the services provided by energy storage [9][15]. Group 4: Policy and Strategic Initiatives - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of energy security as a primary task for the energy industry, necessitating a shift towards a new energy system and collaborative strategies [5][13]. - The launch of the "Energy Digitalization Development White Paper" aims to explore the strategic significance and implementation paths for energy digitalization in China [28].