Core Insights - The dual drivers of "policy + fundamentals" are expected to sustain the reduction in sow production, benefiting the pig farming industry and presenting investment opportunities in the livestock ETF (159865) [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In December, the inventory of large pigs is expected to partially relieve pressure as the second batch of pigs is marketed, with a reported 16.99% decrease in the total number of second-batch pigs compared to the previous month [3]. - The national breeding sow capacity remains high until mid-2025, with a continuous increase in the number of newborn piglets from January to October, suggesting an oversupply of market pigs until April 2026 [3]. - By the third quarter of 2025, a reduction in breeding sow capacity is anticipated, with a reported decrease in the national sow inventory to 39.9 million heads in October, reflecting a 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year decline [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The pig farming industry is expected to enter a prolonged profit cycle with reduced volatility, driven by ongoing capacity reduction and improved efficiency in farming practices [4]. - The current market is characterized by high supply levels, with expectations of weak price performance in the short term due to high inventory levels and seasonal pressures [4]. - Long-term projections indicate that the pig farming sector may stabilize after capacity reductions, supported by enhanced farming efficiency, cost control, and steady consumer demand [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The livestock ETF (159865), which has a pig content of approximately 60% and a scale of nearly 7 billion, ranks first among similar products, attracting significant attention for potential investment [5]. - The industry is viewed as entering a favorable configuration window, with current valuations at historical lows, making it an attractive investment opportunity [5].

Summary of Industry Research Conference Call Industry Focus - The conference call primarily discusses the **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery** industry, with a specific focus on three sub-sectors: **pig farming**, **feed**, and **pet food** [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments Pig Farming - The pig farming industry is experiencing significant challenges due to **policy adjustments** aimed at capacity reduction, leading to accelerated de-capacity [1][2]. - As of October, the average national price of pigs dropped to its lowest level since 2021, falling below **10 yuan per kilogram** [1][4]. - The government has mandated a reduction in the number of breeding sows and the weight of pigs at slaughter, which is expected to continue exerting supply pressure until at least the first half of 2026, with a potential price turning point anticipated in the third quarter [2][4]. - Current losses in the industry are severe, with average losses reported at **122 yuan** per pig and over **200 yuan** for purchased piglets [4]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted for low-cost, high cash flow companies such as **Muyuan Foods** and **Wens Foodstuff Group** [1][5]. Feed Industry - The feed industry is facing intensified domestic competition and overcapacity, prompting companies to seek growth through **international expansion** [1][6]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, total feed production reached approximately **247 million tons**, marking a **7% year-on-year increase** [3][6]. - Companies like **Haida Group** are expanding into overseas markets, with expectations of reaching **3.3 million tons** in sales by 2025, a **40% increase** from the previous year, and potentially exceeding **4 million tons** in the future [1][6]. Pet Food Sector - The pet food sector has shown resilience despite challenges from trade wars, with external sales pressures easing as production shifts to Southeast Asia [1][3][8]. - The sector is experiencing a shift in product innovation, moving from cost-effectiveness to high-quality meat and category innovation, aligning with evolving consumer demands [2][10]. - The concentration of leading domestic brands and the trend towards product upgrades are key focal points for future growth [9][11]. Additional Important Insights - The overall market for Chinese feed accounts for **23%** of the global total, indicating significant potential for growth in international markets [1][6]. - The pet food industry is expected to continue its stable growth trajectory, with a focus on supply chain adjustments to mitigate external shocks [8][11]. - Investment strategies should prioritize companies with strong brand matrices and competitive advantages, particularly in the pig farming and pet food sectors [12]. This comprehensive overview captures the essential developments and strategic insights from the conference call, providing a clear picture of the current state and future outlook of the agriculture-related industries.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][51]. Core Insights - Recent recovery in pig prices is noted, with expectations for continued price increases as the seasonal consumption peak approaches. The inventory of breeding sows remains relatively high, indicating significant potential for capacity reduction [51]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in leading pig farming companies due to expected capacity reduction and improving profitability margins in chicken farming [51]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strong R&D capabilities in animal health companies and the long-term growth potential of domestic pet food leaders [51]. Industry Performance Overview - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 0.92% from November 28 to December 11, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 1.73 percentage points [12]. - Among the sub-sectors, only animal health and planting recorded positive returns, increasing by 1.96% and 1.18%, respectively, while other sectors such as agricultural product processing, feed, breeding, and fishery experienced declines of 1.01%, 1.5%, 3.03%, and 3.76% [15][18]. - Approximately 68% of stocks in the industry recorded negative returns during the same period, with over 60% of stocks showing losses [16][18]. Valuation Metrics - As of December 11, 2025, the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is approximately 2.75 times, reflecting a recent decline in valuation. This level is around 61.8% of the historical median since 2006, indicating a relatively low historical valuation [19]. Key Industry Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs rose from 11.28 CNY/kg to 11.45 CNY/kg during the reporting period. However, self-breeding pig farming continues to incur losses, with profits at -163.34 CNY per head, while purchased pig farming shows a loss of -240.69 CNY per head [23][28]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks increased slightly to 3.54 CNY per chick, while the average price of white feather broilers rose to 7.33 CNY/kg, with losses of -0.71 CNY per bird [30][33]. Company Highlights - The report suggests focusing on key companies such as Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and Shengnong Development (002299) due to their market leadership and potential for recovery [51][52].

Core Viewpoint - The current downcycle in the pig industry is prolonged and complicated due to unprecedented situations, including simultaneous production efficiency improvements and a broad price decline [3][4]. Group 1: Production Efficiency and Costs - The African swine fever (ASF) drastically reduced production efficiency, pushing costs above 15 yuan per pig, but efforts have restored efficiency to pre-ASF levels, with leading companies like Muyuan achieving even better results [5][6]. - The decline in the number of breeding sows has been about 15% from the peak in 2021, yet pig prices remain at a decade low, indicating a significant disconnect between production capacity and market prices [6]. - Future improvements in production efficiency will be challenging, with Muyuan's cost reduction target for next year only at 0.5 yuan, suggesting a solid decline in actual production capacity [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The current downcycle is accompanied by a prolonged period of declining prices, with grain prices returning to a decade low and wages stagnating or declining, which discourages exits from the industry [7][8]. - The exit of high-cost producers has been gradual, with those operating at costs above 20 yuan being eliminated in 2021, and those above 14 yuan in 2023, while the current cycle is targeting producers with costs above 12 yuan [8]. - The capital-backed large-scale farming groups face significant challenges in exiting the market, making policy interventions aimed at this group crucial for industry capacity reduction [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current downcycle is nearing its end, with expectations that the capacity reduction will conclude by the end of Q1 or early Q2 next year, marking the end of the downtrend that began in 2021 [10][13]. - Pig prices are at a 12-year low, indicating limited downside potential, and the expectation is for prices to start rising as the capacity reduction concludes [14][16]. - Projections suggest that pig prices could range from 11.5 to 20 yuan throughout 2024, with a conservative average of 13.5 to 14 yuan, potentially leading to record profits for companies like Muyuan [17][19][26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the pig farming industry is experiencing accelerated capacity reduction due to weak prices and policy-driven factors, with current prices for fat pigs around 11 yuan/kg and weaned piglets at approximately 200 yuan/head, leading to widespread losses in the industry [1][2] - Historical experience suggests that when fat pig and piglet prices are at low levels, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reduction, which is expected to support long-term price increases for pigs [1][2] - The current trend shows a continued reduction in the breeding sow population, with a slight decrease of 0.14% reported by one third-party agency, indicating that large-scale farms are primarily eliminating inefficient capacity while smallholders are exiting the market [2] Group 2 - Investment recommendations include a positive outlook on the pig farming sector, driven by policy and market forces that promote capacity reduction, which is expected to enhance long-term performance for related companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group [4] - The post-cycle sector is anticipated to benefit from a rebound in pig inventory, which will boost demand for feed and animal health products, with potential profit transmission down the supply chain, highlighting companies like Haida Group and Reap Bio [4] - In the planting sector, the upward trend in grain prices is established, indicating favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, with investment opportunities in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in the livestock and pet industries, while highlighting ongoing challenges in pig farming due to supply pressures and price adjustments [2][5][9]. Livestock Industry Overview - Pig farming is experiencing downward price adjustments due to increased supply from smallholders and insufficient demand for cured products, leading to a supply-demand struggle [9][18]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.38% in November, indicating a potential acceleration in capacity reduction [21][9]. - As of December 4, the average price for market pigs was 11.30 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.57% [32][33]. - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses of 167.69 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and 259.39 CNY per head for purchased piglets reported [39][42]. Poultry Industry Insights - The poultry sector is seeing a rise in white chicken prices, with an average price of 7.27 CNY/kg as of December 5, up 1.11% week-on-week [40][44]. - The ongoing outbreaks of avian influenza in overseas markets are expected to benefit the white feather chicken industry in the medium to long term [40][41]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health industry is under pressure due to a decline in demand linked to the overall losses in pig farming, with significant year-on-year decreases in vaccine approvals [50]. - However, the development of new vaccines, including progress in African swine fever vaccine trials, may provide a boost to the sector [50]. Seed Industry Trends - The prices of key agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn, and soybean have shown slight increases, with wheat prices at 2515 CNY/ton, corn at 2357 CNY/ton, and soybean meal at 3111 CNY/ton as of December 5 [53][55]. - The USDA's November report indicates a decrease in global corn and soybean stocks, which may impact future pricing and availability [54][57]. Pet Industry Developments - The pet food export market faced a decline, with October exports amounting to 772 million CNY, down 15.9% year-on-year [58][60]. - Domestic sales of pet food are growing rapidly, with e-commerce sales in October increasing by 19% year-on-year, driven by strong performances from local brands [61][62]. - The Double Eleven shopping festival saw significant sales growth for domestic pet brands, indicating a shift towards local products in the market [62].

行 农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月 08 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 猪价弱势运行，11 月第三方能繁延续去化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：猪价维持弱势，11 月第三方能繁延续去化。（1）月初缩 量拉涨有限，本周猪价窄幅回调。本月初集团场缩量拉涨猪价，但市场接 受度有限，散户大猪顺势出栏，供应压力持续，供大于求格局持续。12 月 5 日猪价 11.19 元/公斤，周环比-0.01 元/公斤。（2）本周屠宰量继续增长。 受降温天气带动，四川地区腌腊、灌肠活动陆续启动，对生猪屠宰量形成 支撑。本周样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量为 17.66 万头，周环比+1.83%。（3） 本周生猪出栏均重继续增长。本周集团出栏节奏收窄后放量，集团出栏均 重小幅增加；散户受制于资金和疫情影响，北方多地散户大猪出栏积极性 偏强，散户出栏均重增幅明显。截至 12 月 4 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 129.82 公斤，周环比+0.60 公斤。展望后市，养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产 能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预计持续，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移， 低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。根据农业农村部数据，10 月末全国能繁 母猪存栏量降 ...

农林学文 主 2025 年 12 月 08 日 站玩人分出品 申万宏源研究微信服务号 猪价继续震荡走弱, 亏损 能去化提速 – 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.1-2025.12.7） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 看好 相关研究 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 1.5%，沪深 300 上涨 1.3%。个股涨幅前五名：好当家 ● (16.2%)、平潭发展 (10.6%)、西王食品 (10.3%)、生物股份 (9.7%)、福建金森 (9.4%)，跌幅前五名：绿康生化（-10.1%）、ST 天山（-8.9%）、*ST 傲农（-6.5%） 中水 渔业 (-6.5%)、益生股份 (-5.3%)。 投资分析意见：行业亏损加剧，产能加速去化 ...

行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 08 日 猪价继续震荡走弱，亏损加剧、产 能去化提速 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.1-2025.12.7） 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 1.5%，沪深 300 上涨 1.3%。个股涨幅前五名：好当家 （16.2%）、平潭发展（10.6%）、西王食品（10.3%）、生物股份（9.7%）、福建金森 （9.4%），跌幅前五名：绿康生化 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月 08 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 猪价弱势运行，11 月第三方能繁延续去化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：猪价维持弱势，11 月第三方能繁延续去化。（1）月初缩 量拉涨有限，本周猪价窄幅回调。本月初集团场缩量拉涨猪价，但市场接 受度有限，散户大猪顺势出栏，供应压力持续，供大于求格局持续。12 月 5 日猪价 11.19 元/公斤，周环比-0.01 元/公斤。（2）本周屠宰量继续增长。 受降温天气带动，四川地区腌腊、灌肠活动陆续启动，对生猪屠宰量形成 支撑。本周样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量为 17.66 万头，周环比+1.83%。（3） 本周生猪出栏均重继续增长。本周集团出栏节奏收窄后放量，集团出栏均 重小幅增加；散户受制于资金和疫情影响，北方多地散户大猪出栏积极性 偏强，散户出栏均重增幅明显。截至 12 月 4 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 129.82 公斤，周环比+0.60 公斤。展望后市，养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产 能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预计持续，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移， 低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。根据农业农村部数据，10 月末全国能繁 母猪存栏量降至 ...