周三，美国财政部将公布5月至7月季度的债券拍卖规模。近期长期国债收益率的大幅波动，让贝森特面 临严峻挑战。市场预计，财政部将继续按照既定节奏发债，预计下周的季度赎回拍卖将保持在1250亿美 元左右，包括3年、10年和30年期限债券。法国兴业银行美国利率策略主管Subadra Rajappa在接受采访 时表示： "考虑到美债市场的波动性，财政部长贝森特将非常谨慎地传达任何变化——尤其是票息规 模的调整。" 近期美国国债市场经历了剧烈波动，尤其是10年期国债收益率一度突破4.3%贝森特曾批评前任耶伦将 美国债务向短期国债倾斜，但在他上任后的首次公告中，仍延续了耶伦时期的指导方针。 对投资者而言，变动的节奏更像是一场精心设计的"稳扎稳打"。短债"稳定"发售，长债"缓慢推进"，而 未来稳定币的崛起或将成为左右债市格局的"隐藏推手"。 稳中求变的债市布局：继续按照既定节奏发债 根据历史模式，即将公布的公告将确定下周季度再融资拍卖的规模，其中包括3年期、10年期和30年期 国债： 在债务市场狂飙突进的背后，贝森特的债务管理策略正悄然发生改变。 稳定币：美债需求的未来"大金主"？ 对未来几年美国财政持续的赤字解释了为什么许 ...

美国财政部长贝森特领导的债务管理团队预计将保持美国财政部出售较长期证券的计划不变，尤其是在 29万亿美元的美债市场近期出现波动之后。尽管曾批评美国前任财政部长耶伦倾向于发售美国短期国 债，但贝森特自今年1月上任以来一直表示，财政部要用长期国债取代短期国债还有"很长的路要走"。 因此，华尔街预计周三公布的5月至7月当季预计标售规模不会发生变化。 本月稍早，美国长期公债收益率出现数十年来最大涨幅，这只会加大贝森特的赌注，他一直致力于压低 长期公债收益率的目标。传统上，季度供应公告被用来传达拍卖规模可能如何演变的指引。 法国兴业银行美国利率策略主管Subadra Rajappa在电话采访中表示："鉴于美国国债市场的波动性，财 政部长贝森特将非常谨慎地传达任何变化，尤其是关于债券规模的变化。" 2月5日的最新声明——贝森特任期内的第一次——保留了耶伦时代的指引，预计"至少在未来几个季 度"将保持稳定的票据和债券拍卖规模。根据历史模式，周三的公告将确定下周所谓的季度再融资标售 的规模，包括3年期、10年期和30年期公债。它还将预测到7月底之前所有其他票据和债券拍卖的规模。 如果不做出任何改变，下周的拍卖总额将达到125 ...

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者民生宏观团队 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 林彦 邵翔 裴明楠 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 对于美国经济，联储和我们前期报告判断的一致——滞涨。在如何处理"滞胀"这个问题上，美联储还是犹豫了。今天凌晨的议息会议美联 储对当前经济的定性是"滞胀"属性和不确定性上升，应对上观望和平衡更加明显，支持年内至少2次降息的人变少了，而意外的放缓缩表也 被官方视为"以时间换空间"的中性措施。面对白宫，美联储依旧不想先动，而落后于曲线（Behind the Curve）的代价可能是在未来不得 不宽松得更多。 信号偏鹰的点阵图： 点阵图显示今年降息预测中值仍是2次（和去年12月一致），但是支持年内降息2次以上的人变少了：从15人减少至11 人。 微妙的放缓缩表： 本次会议比较意外的是宣布从4月起放缓缩表节奏，将美国国债的每月赎回上限从250亿美元降至50亿美元。鲍威尔强调 不是货币政策态度的变化，而是应对债务上限的技术性调整，而且可能意味着缩表结束的时点延后。不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main theme of global asset allocation in the post-pandemic era is the "American exceptionalism," characterized by a lack of significant financial tightening despite the highest interest rate hike cycle since the 1970s, leading to questions about the real impact of these rate hikes on the economy and corporate operations [1][2]. Summary by Sections Resident Sector - The ratio of mortgage payments to disposable income is currently at 11.3%, lower than the 11.7% level at the end of 2019, indicating strong consumer spending from 2022 to 2024 [2]. Corporate Sector - The credit spread of corporate bonds has been declining since the second half of 2022, remaining at historical lows, which facilitates easy corporate financing. Profit growth has accelerated compared to pre-pandemic levels, and debt repayment metrics have improved [2][3]. Liquidity Environment - The liquidity premium in the U.S. has not reached extreme levels, indicating a generally loose liquidity environment. A significant risk event occurred in March 2023 with the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) incident, but it was quickly addressed by the FDIC [2][3]. Debt Maturity Challenges - A significant issue arises as corporate bonds issued in 2020 will mature in large volumes by 2025, forcing companies to either refinance at higher costs or use cash reserves, which may lead to reduced capital expenditures [4][5]. Upcoming Liquidity Tightening - The second quarter of 2025 will see a historical peak in corporate debt maturities, with over $600 billion due, representing a 70% increase compared to the average for the second half of 2024. The average financing cost for these debts is estimated at 3.6%, while refinancing could increase costs by 190 basis points [5][6]. Potential Credit Spread Increase - The current liquidity environment is relatively fragile, and if it coincides with the debt maturity peak, there is a risk of a rapid increase in credit spreads. Historical data suggests that peaks in corporate bond spreads typically lag the last rate hike by about 24 months [6][7]. Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Reduction - The liquidity buffer provided by the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ONRRP) has significantly decreased, and the ongoing balance sheet reduction (QT) has led to a noticeable reduction in excess reserves within the banking system [7][8]. Debt Ceiling and Liquidity Risks - The approval of a new debt ceiling bill around mid-year could lead to a temporary tightening of liquidity. The U.S. Treasury has already utilized 70% of its "extraordinary measures" to maintain government operations, with a potential liquidity crunch expected around the "X-date" in June [8][9]. Market Expectations on QT - There are differing expectations in the market regarding the timing of the end of QT, with some Federal Reserve officials suggesting a pause until the debt ceiling issue is resolved. Delays in ending QT could further pressure liquidity [9]. Overall Market Outlook - The risk of tightening liquidity in the second quarter cannot be ignored, and U.S. equities may face another round of adjustments. Recent liquidity crises, such as the SVB incident, have shown that market reactions can be swift and significant [9].