仅一周时间不到，美债投资者的交易主题再度从贸易关系缓和利好，转向对美国财政轨迹的担忧。 布朗兄弟哈里曼公司(Brown Brothers Harriman)的首席投资策略师克莱蒙斯（Scott Clemons）表示，"债 券义勇军"关注的一个关键问题是，国会在保证财政原则不被牺牲方面会有多大的阻力，"如果一项支持 继续挥霍的法案通过，可能会抑制投资者增加长期美债的风险敞口。无党派智库"负责任的联邦预算委 员会估计，到2034年，该法案可能会使美国债务再增加约3.3万亿美元，如果政策制定者延长临时规 定，则约为5.2万亿美元。 美国财政部长贝森特仍在试图挽尊。他表示，政府的重点是控制基准10年期美债收益率，而目前的收益 率约为4.4%，比特朗普1月上任前低了约17个基点。 富国银行策略师团队在周末给客户的报告中预计，受穆迪对美国政府信用评级的降级影响，10年期和30 年期美国国债收益率将再上升5~10个基点。若30年期国债收益率上升10个基点，将使其突破5%，达到 2023年11月以来的最高水平。 今日（5月19日）亚太交易时段，30年期美债收益率持续拉升，一度触及5%。 "债市义勇军"关注"美丽大法案" 当前 ...

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（5.12-5.16） 关税博弈阶段性缓和，美国通胀仍在下行 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：加快构建科技金融体制，持续推进城市更新。5 月 13 日，中国－拉美 和加勒比国家共同体论坛第四届部长级会议在北京举行，同日，中国和巴西发 布关于强化携手构建中巴命运共同体的联合声明，未来我国自巴西进口有望持 续增加，中国企业向巴西出海投资的步伐也有望加快；14 日，科技部联合中 国人民银行等七部门发布《加快构建科技金融体制 力支撑高水平科技自立自 强的若干政策举措》，提出 15 项具体措施，推动金融资源精准投向科技创新 领域；同日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁主持召开民营企业座谈会，围绕经济 形势、稳就业稳经济政策落实等议题，系统回应民营企业关切，释放了强化政 策执行、法治保障和战略引导的积极信号；15 日，中办、国办印发《关于持 续推进城市更新行动的意见》，系统部署八大任务与六大支撑保障措施，城市 更新改造后续或将获得更多财政和融资等方面的支持。 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声 ...

据新华社报道，当地时间5月16日，国际信用评级机构穆迪宣布，由于美国政府债务和利率支付比例增加，该机构决定将美国主权信用评级 从Aaa下调至Aa1，同时将美国主权信用评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。 至此，全球三大评级巨头：标普、惠誉和穆迪全部剥夺了对美国的最高评级。美国《新闻周刊》称，这是一个多世纪以来，美国首次同时 失去三大评级机构的最高评级。 ▲国际信用评级机构穆迪16日宣布下调美国主权信用评级 据环球网 ▲美国民主党领袖舒默据环球网 美债吸引力下降 到底是谁的"锅"？ 三大核心原因 导致美国被降级 据悉，标普早在2011年时就指出美国的政策制定变得极不稳定，并将美国长期主权信用评级由"AAA"降至"AA+"，当时还受到了美国财政部的严厉批 评。今年4月，标普在一份报告中暗示，如果未来发生任何使美国财政状况恶化的事情，它可能会将美国信用评级从目前的AA+再下调一级。 惠誉则是在2023年8月时将美国评级从AAA下调至AA+，这是惠誉1994年发布该评级以来首次下调美国信用评级。该机构将原因归咎于"国会频繁发生 的债务上限谈判僵局"。惠誉当时预计，美国将面临"财政恶化"、联邦政府债务可能会不断增长。 穆 ...

新华财经北京5月17日电 据美国财政部周五（16日）下午4时公布的3月份国际资本流动（TIC）报告，主要国家和地区当月持有美债 90,495亿美元，环比增持美债2,331亿美元，日本仍为第一大海外债主，英国排名第二。 与此同时，周五，穆迪评级（Moodys Ratings）将美国主权信用评级下调一级，从Aaa降至Aa1，理由是联邦政府预算赤字的融资负担日 益加重，以及在高利率下现有债务展期成本上升。美国媒体认为，此举可能会扰乱金融市场，推高利率，可能会给已经在关税和通胀问 题上苦苦挣扎的美国人带来额外的经济负担。 不断膨胀的赤字、独特的美国债务上限机制以及政治上的不妥协，是三大主要信用评级机构下调美国评级的主要原因。穆迪一直不愿维 持美国主权债务的最高信用评级，此次下调，让这家拥有116年历史的评级机构与竞争对手保持一致。2011年8月，标准普尔（Standard & Poors）将美国的评级从AAA下调至AA+，惠誉评级（Fitch Ratings）也在2023年8月将美国的评级从AAA下调至AA+。 受评级下调影响，10年期美债收益率在盘后交易中攀升3BPs至4.48%。iShares 20年以上美债ET ...

Fundamental Analysis - U.S. officials stated they will not seek a devaluation of the dollar during trade negotiations, leading to a rapid rebound in the dollar and a decline in gold prices [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is the only member of the Trump administration's economic team handling these issues, and discussions on currency policy can only occur in his presence [1] - The House Republican leaders have introduced a new tax cut and spending reduction bill, which is expected to be voted on before Memorial Day and aims to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion to allow for future budget execution [1] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have seen a significant decline from a high of 3435.0 to a low of 3168.0, marking a drop of nearly $267, indicating a strong bearish trend [4] - The moving averages indicate a bearish arrangement, with the 60-period moving average crossing below the 100-period moving average [4] - Trading strategy suggests attempting to short at around 3208.0 with a stop loss at 3216.0 and targets set at 3185.0 and 3168.0 [5] Silver Analysis - Silver prices have shown a bullish trend from a low of 31.65 but have faced resistance at 33.68, leading to a recent decline to 32.07 [8] - The moving averages are flattening, but the 60-period moving average is turning down, indicating a weak bearish trend [8] - Suggested trading strategy includes shorting at around 32.53 with a stop loss at 32.73 and targets at 32.10 and 31.90 [9] Economic Events - A series of economic indicators are scheduled for release, including the UK's GDP and trade balance, Eurozone GDP and industrial output, and U.S. retail sales and PPI [10]

美国财政部副部长Faulkender：并不担心价格持续上涨这个问题。 预计最早将于8月份耗尽债务上限措施。 预计通胀将回归（美联储既定的）目标水平。 美国经济正在构建基础，预计今年下半年将加速增长。 ...

美国财政部副部长：相信八月是我们最早需要关注的触发债务上限的X日（X-Date）。 ...

Core Points - The ambitious tax reform and immigration bill proposed by Trump aims to reshape the federal government's functions and the economic landscape of the U.S., but faces significant divisions within the Republican Party, making its future uncertain [1] - The House Republican leaders have introduced a new tax cut and spending reduction bill, which is expected to be voted on by the full House before Memorial Day, followed by Senate consideration [1][2] - The bill includes a substantial tax and immigration package that extends the 2017 tax cuts, significantly increases border security spending, cuts several social welfare programs, limits climate change investments, and introduces various innovative tax credits [1] Tax Reform Details - The bill extends the personal tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and partially fulfills some of Trump's campaign promises, including the establishment of new savings accounts for newborns [3] - The bill aims to raise the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap to $32,000 for joint filers and $16,000 for individual filers over the next four years [3] Immigration Policy Changes - The bill allocates over $140 billion for border security and immigration enforcement, with more than $50 billion designated for the construction of the U.S.-Mexico border wall and related facilities [4] Social Welfare Reforms - The bill proposes significant cuts to Medicaid, estimating a reduction of $625 billion over ten years, which could result in 8.7 million people losing health insurance [5] - New requirements include co-payment mechanisms for individuals earning above 100% of the federal poverty line and work requirements for most healthy, childless adults [5] Education Policy Adjustments - The bill introduces major changes to education financing, including increased taxation on college endowment fund earnings and a new tax credit program totaling $20 billion over four years to encourage private school payments [8] Energy Policy Shift - The bill cancels the federal tax credit for electric vehicle purchases and plans to phase out financial incentives for clean energy, while supporting fossil fuel policies [9] Defense Budget Increase - The bill allocates approximately $150 billion to the Department of Defense, covering various priorities including $34 billion for ammunition and supply chain enhancements [10] Debt Ceiling Adjustment - The bill proposes raising the debt ceiling by $4 trillion to provide budgetary flexibility for future expenditures [11]

Key Points - The report highlights a significant increase in US tariff revenue, which surged by 130% year-on-year to reach 16 billion USD in April [4] - The US Treasury Secretary indicated potential meetings with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to achieve a more comprehensive agreement [4] - The report notes that the 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 11.93 basis points to 4.0082%, while the 5-year and 10-year yields increased by 10.92 and 9.05 basis points, respectively [4] - Nissan is reported to be laying off approximately 15% of its global workforce [4] - Apple is considering raising prices for its iPhone product line set to be released in the fall [4] - The report mentions that CATL's initial public offering was fully subscribed on its first day [4] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1299.00, down 1.29% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 18708.34, up 4.35%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.81% to 42410.10 [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price increased by 1.69% to 64.99 USD [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed at 23549.46, up 2.98%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 3.01% to 8559.23 [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.82% to 3369.24 [5]

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | | 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 邮 | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号 金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 极端关税缓和下，未来可能的三种结果 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 13 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 中美极端关税出现实质性缓解，是现实需要的必然结果。中美双方实施极 端关税一个月后，双方在日内瓦经贸会议发布了联合声明，中美双方取消 91%的关税，暂停 24%的关税，保留 ...