Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is currently experiencing adjustments due to a self-correction of excessive risk appetite, with significant fluctuations observed from July 9 to 11, where daily adjustments exceeded 1 basis point [1][22][25] - Despite the frequent negative rotations in the bond market, key variables influencing the market direction, such as fundamentals, central bank attitudes, and external circulation pressures, have not changed [1][25][37] - The report highlights that the bond market's pricing reference may shift from the stock market to fundamentals as economic data is released, indicating a weak correlation between stock market rebounds and bond market pricing [3][36] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to the 10-year and 30-year government bonds returning to relatively high positions at 1.65% and 1.85%, respectively, making the market more sensitive to positive news and less responsive to negative news [4][37] - It emphasizes that the liquidity situation will be a critical observation period for the central bank's attitude, especially with a significant funding gap expected in mid-July [4][26][39] - The report suggests that despite recent increases in funding prices, overnight rates remain relatively low, indicating that leverage strategies may still be preferred in July [6][39][40] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of recent adjustments in the bond market, where the duration of bond funds has decreased, reflecting a shift in market behavior as institutions reduce their duration amid tightening liquidity [6][24][25] - It also mentions that the government bond issuance volume remains above 400 billion, indicating ongoing government financing activities [6][21] - The report highlights that the leverage ratio in the non-bank sector has decreased significantly, indicating a market-wide trend towards deleveraging [6][24] Group 4 - The report outlines the recent changes in the interest rate environment, with the overnight rates rising to 1.40% and 1.51% for R001 and R007, respectively, indicating a tightening liquidity situation [15][25][26] - It notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to a significant increase in the issuance rates of certificates of deposit, reflecting rising costs for banks [29][30] - The report also highlights the ongoing adjustments in the credit bond market, particularly in the long-end segment, where yields have been affected by negative rotations [17][16] Group 5 - The report indicates that the recent changes in tariffs by the U.S. government may have implications for global trade dynamics, with increased tariffs on key countries potentially impacting the bond market [31][32] - It suggests that the market is currently cautious regarding tariff changes, with a wait-and-see approach being adopted by investors [31][32] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's response to external factors, such as tariffs, may not be immediate, and investors are advised to monitor developments closely [31][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has cooled, with most stock markets rising, bond yields mostly increasing, and the US dollar index strengthening. The upcoming US tariffs and the Fed's independence issues are causing market uncertainty and potential volatility [1][2] - The US is imposing high reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries, aiming to pressure trade partners into reaching agreements. The US dollar may remain strong in the short - term, but faces downward pressure in the medium - term, and market risk aversion is expected to rise [35][36] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite cooled. Most stock markets rose, bond yields mostly increased, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.41%. The US dollar index rose 0.69% to 97.8, and most non - US currencies depreciated. Gold prices rose 0.6% to $3355 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 16.4, and the spot commodity index rose, with Brent crude oil up 2.4% to $72.4 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose, with US stocks falling and A - shares rising. The S&P 500 dropped 0.31%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%. The upcoming US tariffs and the Fed's independence issues may cause the stock market to face downward pressure and adjustment risks [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly increased, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising to 4.41%. Eurozone government bonds mostly increased, and emerging - market bond yields mostly rebounded. The US bond supply pressure is not fully reflected, but inflation pressure is increasing, and bond yields are expected to continue rising [13][16][19] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.69% to 97.8, and most non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB fell 0.12%, the euro dropped 0.77%, the pound fell 1.16%, the yen declined 2.05%, and the Swiss franc dropped 0.33%. The Brazilian real and the South African rand fell more than 2%, and the South Korean won, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, etc. also declined [25][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3355 per ounce. The upcoming US tariffs increased market risk aversion, and gold prices are expected to remain high with potential increased volatility. Brent crude oil rose 2.4% to $72.4 per barrel. The crude oil supply - demand pattern is weak, but the US tariff on copper imports caused Comex copper to strengthen, and the commodity spot index rose [29][32] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US reciprocal tariffs are back, and market volatility has intensified. The US is imposing high tariffs on multiple countries, and the trade negotiation progress is slow. The US dollar may be strong in the short - term, and market risk aversion is expected to rise [33][35][36] 4. Next Week's Important Events - China's June foreign trade and financial data, the second - quarter GDP, the US June CPI, PPI, retail sales, the Fed's Beige Book, Japan's June CPI, and the US July University of Michigan consumer confidence index and inflation expectations will be released [37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Germany's major industry associations urge Europe not to be intimidated by the US's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods and to seek equal solutions while reducing dependence on the US market [1] - Dirk Jandura, president of the German Wholesale and Foreign Trade Association, states that the tariff announcement is part of Trump's negotiation strategy and emphasizes the need for calm negotiations [1] - The German Automotive Industry Association warns of escalating risks in transatlantic trade relations, highlighting that German companies are already facing billions of euros in additional costs [1] Group 2 - Wolfgang Niedermark from the Federation of German Industries expresses concerns that using tariffs as a political tool will increase costs, threaten jobs, and weaken the global competitiveness of EU and US products [1] - Current US tariffs include a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on automobiles, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods [2] - Recent data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany shows a 1.4% month-on-month decline in German exports in May, with exports to the US dropping by 7.7%, the lowest level in over three years [2]

Core Insights - The Brazilian real has recovered some of its losses against the US dollar, indicating a potential stabilization in the currency market [1] - Former President Trump has expressed the possibility of discussing tariff issues with Brazil, which could impact trade relations and economic policies [1] Currency Market - The Brazilian real has shown signs of recovery against the US dollar, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [1] - The exchange rate dynamics may influence investor confidence and economic forecasts for Brazil [1] Trade Relations - Trump's indication of potential talks regarding tariffs with Brazil could lead to changes in trade policies [1] - Such discussions may affect various sectors within the Brazilian economy, particularly those reliant on exports [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump indicated the possibility of discussing tariff issues with Brazil at some point in the future [1] Group 1 - The potential talks with Brazil may signal a shift in trade relations between the two countries [1] - Tariff discussions could impact various industries, particularly those reliant on imports and exports between the U.S. and Brazil [1]

Group 1 - The Australian National Bank (NAB) analysts indicate that current uncertainties provide stable support for the US dollar, which may continue to perform strongly if the situation persists for several weeks, particularly due to insufficient market digestion of tariff news [1][2] - The US government's proposed comprehensive tariff plan, especially new taxes on imports from Canada and Brazil, has increased market uncertainty, enhancing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The UK experienced an unexpected GDP contraction of 0.1% in May, reflecting significant downside risks to economic growth, which puts further downward pressure on the British pound [2] Group 2 - The Dutch International Group (ING) analysts state that even if a trade agreement between the EU and the US is reached, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro to dollar exchange rate, which is primarily driven by US Federal Reserve monetary policy and economic data [3] - Kenanga economists predict that concerns over US tariffs are expected to pressure the Malaysian ringgit (MYR), with the USD/MYR exchange rate anticipated to fluctuate between 4.25 and 4.28 [1] - Nomura Securities highlights that the US tariff policy may indirectly weaken Singapore's export-dependent economy, with specific industry tariffs potentially causing direct economic impacts [2]

Group 1 - The ongoing US-China trade war has entered a new phase, with Washington showing unprecedented urgency to engage in high-level talks with China to address key trade issues [1][3] - The upcoming expiration of the 24% tariffs on Chinese goods, set for early August, is a significant catalyst for this diplomatic push, as the end of the 90-day buffer period agreed upon in Geneva looms [3][5] - The US administration is facing a dilemma regarding the tariffs; reinstating them could lead to a stock market crash, while removing them could damage the US's political standing [5][9] Group 2 - The US's agricultural trade strategy has become more complex, with American soybean exports to China experiencing significant volatility, prompting pressure from Midwestern farmers on Washington [7][9] - The US's previous hardline stance on companies like Huawei and ZTE has backfired, as other countries have filled the void in the Chinese market, highlighting the challenges the US faces in regaining market share [9][10] - The negotiations are complicated by the need to balance actual interest distribution with political optics, as domestic anti-China sentiment remains high [12][15] Group 3 - The August talks present an opportunity for both sides to reassess past grievances and losses, emphasizing that international relations are not won by sheer volume but by pragmatic cooperation [15]

巴西总统卢拉：特朗普本可以就关税问题致电巴西，但他只是在自己的网站上发表了这封信，这是不尊 重的。 ...

巴西财长Haddad：我们将不得不寻找解决关税问题的办法，巴西与美国历来保持良好的关系。巴西的 外交政策愿意与美国政府共同寻找解决方案。 ...

Group 1 - The Malaysian Prime Minister discussed the Gaza situation and tariff issues with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio during talks [1]