日本央行行长植田和男：关于ETF持仓的立场保持不变。即使关税问题得到解决，经济受到的影响仍存 在较高的不确定性。 ...

日本首相石破茂：尚未与美国就关税问题达成整体协议。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a strong and volatile trend last week, with a slight overall increase. Looking ahead, there are uncertainties in the macro - aspect. The supply side of rubber is supported to some extent by weather, but the demand side has not improved significantly, and there is potential supply pressure in the future. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Key factors to focus on include geopolitical impacts, weather disturbances in rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, progress of zero - tariff policies, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [8][90] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber contract RU2509 ranged from 13,565 to 14,000 yuan/ton, showing a strong and volatile trend with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of June 13, 2025, it was reported at 13,875 yuan/ton, up 225 points or 1.65% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of June 13, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 13,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,500 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,310 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [18][22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two shrank slightly. As of June 13, 2025, the basis was maintained at 25 yuan/ton, 75 yuan/ton less than last week [27] Important Market Information - Geopolitical: On June 13, local time, the "Israel - Iran conflict" broke out, causing a shock in the global market. Crude oil prices soared by more than 13% and then declined, safe - haven assets such as gold rose significantly, and global stock markets fell collectively [34] - US Economic Data: In May, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year; the PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year; the initial jobless claims last week were 248,000, the highest since October 5, 2024 [35][36] - Global Economic Outlook: The World Bank lowered the global GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, and Fitch adjusted the global sovereign rating outlook for 2025 from "neutral" to "deteriorating" [36][37] - Sino - US Economic and Trade: From June 9 to 10, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK, achieving new progress in resolving each other's economic and trade concerns [37] - China's Economic Data: In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. From January to May, the export of China's equipment manufacturing products reached 6.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [38] - China's Automobile Market: In May, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. The export of automobiles in May was 551,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 2.49 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [39][40] Supply - Side Situation - As of April 30, 2025, the production in Vietnam's main producing area increased significantly compared with the previous month; the production in China's main producing area increased significantly; the production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and India's main producing areas decreased slightly compared with the previous month; the production in Thailand's main producing area decreased significantly compared with the previous month. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in April 2025 was 505,200 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous month [44] - As of April 30, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 743,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%; the cumulative production was 2.947 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.3% [48][52] - As of April 30, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.35% [57] Demand - Side Situation - As of June 12, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 77.98%, an increase of 4.12% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 61.24%, a decrease of 2.23% from last week [59] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6188 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.88%; the monthly sales volume was 2.5896 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.18% [63][66] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales volume was 87,667, a year - on - year increase of 6.52% and a month - on - month decrease of 21.36% [71] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 102.002 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 57.39 million, a month - on - month decrease of 7.87% [74][80] Inventory - Side Situation - As of June 13, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 193,070 tons, 460 tons less than last week [88] - As of June 8, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.275 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,000 tons or 0.4%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 762,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 513,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [88] - As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 605,500 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons or 0.67% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 85,600 tons, a decrease of 1.5%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decrease of 0.54% [88] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period, but recent weather in the main producing areas has affected rubber tapping, and rubber imports have increased significantly [89] - Demand: Last week, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises rebounded slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. The all - steel tire inventory decreased, and the semi - steel tire inventory increased. The automobile market showed good performance in May, with a significant increase in export growth, while heavy - truck sales were average [89] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both decreased slightly [89] 后市展望 - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a strong and volatile trend last week, with a slight overall increase. Considering the macro and fundamental aspects, it is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term, and key factors need to be closely monitored [90] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation this week. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider range - bound operations [9][91]

Group 1 - 55% of American adults disapprove of Trump's handling of presidential duties, while 45% approve, similar to a previous poll in April [1] - 60% of respondents disapprove of Trump's handling of tariffs, 61% disapprove of his management of cost of living and inflation, and 56% disapprove of his approach to higher education issues [1] - 51% of respondents approve of Trump's handling of border security and immigration issues [1] Group 2 - Among Republicans, 40% prioritize reducing national debt, while 39% focus on continuing and expanding the tax cuts and credits established by Trump in 2017 [1] - 20% of Republicans consider maintaining current spending as their most important budget priority [1] - The poll was conducted from May 30 to June 10, involving 19,410 adults across the United States through an online survey [1]

与特朗普就关税问题进行了坦诚而有意义的谈话。 日本首相石破茂：与特朗普同意在加拿大会面。 ...

日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：将努力实现日本和美国在关税问题上的满意结果。 ...

Group 1 - The market may experience short-term stability as Trump's intimidation tactics are less impactful than before [3] - Recent US-China negotiations have achieved a phase result that calms global markets, but Trump's claims of significant achievements are viewed skeptically [3][4] - Trump announced potential high tariffs on ten economies if agreements are not reached by early July, causing immediate reactions in the US capital markets [4] Group 2 - The perceived benefits from the US-China negotiations include access to rare earth products and a significant disparity in tariff increases, with the US imposing 55% and China 10% [3][4] - The negotiations took place in the UK, which is seen as a high-stakes posture from China, and the temporary nature of rare earth supply agreements may not favor the US in the long run [4]

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing upward momentum, with Bitcoin approaching the 110,000 mark, which is positively influencing other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, which has surpassed 2,800 [3][5] - The recent tariff news has established a framework that is expected to alleviate tensions between the US and China, particularly in the rare earth and chip sectors, leading to increased capital inflow into the cryptocurrency market [5][7] - The current inflow of cash into the cryptocurrency market is at a recent high, primarily through cash purchases rather than stablecoins, indicating strong traditional capital support for future price increases [5][7] Group 2 - New regulations in China are aimed at the unified management of confiscated cryptocurrency assets, which is a step towards legal compliance and may reduce previous concerns about overseas capital outflows [7][9] - The Hong Kong market is becoming more open, with upcoming legislation on stablecoins, which could facilitate capital inflow and stabilize the Asian economy [7][9] - Investors are advised to focus on long positions in the current market environment, as the potential for significant downturns is limited, and the overall trend is expected to be upward [7][9] Group 3 - The performance of spot trading has been favorable, with many investors seeing profits since last year, emphasizing the importance of long-term investment strategies over short-term speculative trading [9][11] - For contract traders, it is crucial to manage risk effectively and be prepared for potential losses, as the current market conditions may not favor contract trading due to tariff uncertainties [11][15] - The overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market suggests that it is essential to maintain a clear strategy and avoid excessive greed, focusing on realistic profit expectations [15][16]

Group 1: Market Information - CF01 contract closed at 13490 with a 5-point increase, trading volume was 26,963 (down 25175), and open interest was 136,971 (up 850) [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13475 with no change, trading volume was 207 (down 569), and open interest was 2,554 (up 66) [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13520 with a 25-point increase, trading volume was 170,148 (down 94667), and open interest was 538,557 (up 96) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19820 with a 75-point decrease, trading volume was 5, and open interest was 35 (up 1) [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18550 with no change, trading volume and open interest were both 0 [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19725 with a 15-point decrease, trading volume was 7180 (up 1568), and open interest was 16083 (up 1669) [3] - CCIndex3128B price was 14620 yuan/ton, up 59; CY IndexC32S price was 20300, down 770 [3] - Cot A price was 78.00 cents/pound, up 0.25; FCY IndexC33S price was 21809, down 6 [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 77.49, up 0.20; Indian S-6 price was 54000, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber price was 7450, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S price was 11180, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber price was 12650, down 150; viscose yarn R30S price was 17250, unchanged [3] - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was 15, up 5; cotton 5 - 9 month spread was -45, down 25; cotton 9 - 1 month spread was 30, up 20 [3] - Cotton yarn 1 - 5 month spread was 1270, down 75; cotton yarn 5 - 9 month spread was -1175, up 15; cotton yarn 9 - 1 month spread was -95, up 60 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6330, down 80; CY05 - CF05 spread was 5075, unchanged; CY09 - CF09 spread was 6205, down 40 [3] - 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 802, up 16; sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 127, up 40; internal - external yarn spread was -1509, down 764 [3] Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - As of June 7, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 1.4% (98% of the area), up 0.5 percentage points week - on - week, compared with 1.7% last year [6] - As of June 8, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 76%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 4 percentage points slower than the five - year average [6] - The cotton budding rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 12%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and the same as the five - year average [6] - The cotton good - to - excellent rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 49%, 7 percentage points lower than last year and 1 percentage point lower than the five - year average [6] - Cotton spot trading remained sluggish, sales basis was firm, some low - basis decreased, but the mainstream range changed little [7] - The trading logic is mainly macro - oriented, with large uncertainties in tariff issues. Short - term range - bound oscillation is expected, and medium - to - long - term cotton may continue to decline [8] - For single - side trading, US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate stronger in the short term [9] - For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11] Cotton Yarn Industry - Yesterday, Zhengzhou cotton rose, some spinning mills raised quotes, but market trading was light in the off - season, and downstream acceptance of price increases was low [11] - If the macro situation is favorable and cotton prices continue to rise, cotton yarn may follow, but profit is expected to deteriorate [11] - The overall situation of the cotton grey fabric market changed little, demand was weak, prices were stable, and orders were negotiated based on quantity [11] - Conventional plain cloth shipments were slow, inventory increased, and home textile mills' orders were worse than before and not good in the future [11] Group 3: Options - On June 10, 2025, the closing price of CF509C13400.CZC was 282.00, up 34.9%, with an implied volatility of 9.3% [13] - On June 10, 2025, the closing price of CF509P12600.CZC was 28.00, down 69.6%, with an implied volatility of 12.0% [13] - On June 10, 2025, the closing price of CF509P12200.CZC was 18.00, down 75.3%, with an implied volatility of 14.6% [13] - Today's 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.5891, slightly lower than the previous day [13] - The PCR of the main contract's open interest was 0.9536, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume was 0.7091. Both call and put trading volumes increased, and the market was bearish [14] - It is recommended to wait and see for options [15] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [16][23][25][29]

Group 1 - The operating rate of PDH units is expected to remain below 70% due to poor profitability, despite new units starting up in June and July [1] - The demand for alkylation and MTBE units is increasing, driven by gasoline demand, while there is a slight increase in demand for C4 [1] - The international LPG price is declining, with US propane inventories continuing to rise and overall market resources being abundant [1] Group 2 - The domestic LPG supply is rebounding, with inventory levels remaining high and port storage capacity slightly decreasing after reaching a seasonal high [2] - The market is experiencing a cautious sentiment due to tariff issues, with gasoline consumption at a four-year low and chemical demand being weak [2] - The PDH weekly capacity utilization has slightly rebounded but remains at a multi-year low, while alkylation capacity utilization has also increased, with margins near zero [2] Group 3 - Domestic refinery prices are weak, with terminal gas sales declining and increased refinery output leading to a loose supply of domestic gas [3] - Chemical demand is recovering month-on-month, but PDH margins have slightly decreased due to falling naphtha prices, limiting future growth potential [3] - Overall market pressure is evident with rising inventories at both terminals and refineries, despite some support from strong crude oil prices [3]