Core Insights - The Brazilian real has recovered some of its losses against the US dollar, indicating a potential stabilization in the currency market [1] - Former President Trump has expressed the possibility of discussing tariff issues with Brazil, which could impact trade relations and economic policies [1] Currency Market - The Brazilian real has shown signs of recovery against the US dollar, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [1] - The exchange rate dynamics may influence investor confidence and economic forecasts for Brazil [1] Trade Relations - Trump's indication of potential talks regarding tariffs with Brazil could lead to changes in trade policies [1] - Such discussions may affect various sectors within the Brazilian economy, particularly those reliant on exports [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump indicated the possibility of discussing tariff issues with Brazil at some point in the future [1] Group 1 - The potential talks with Brazil may signal a shift in trade relations between the two countries [1] - Tariff discussions could impact various industries, particularly those reliant on imports and exports between the U.S. and Brazil [1]

Group 1 - The Australian National Bank (NAB) analysts indicate that current uncertainties provide stable support for the US dollar, which may continue to perform strongly if the situation persists for several weeks, particularly due to insufficient market digestion of tariff news [1][2] - The US government's proposed comprehensive tariff plan, especially new taxes on imports from Canada and Brazil, has increased market uncertainty, enhancing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The UK experienced an unexpected GDP contraction of 0.1% in May, reflecting significant downside risks to economic growth, which puts further downward pressure on the British pound [2] Group 2 - The Dutch International Group (ING) analysts state that even if a trade agreement between the EU and the US is reached, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro to dollar exchange rate, which is primarily driven by US Federal Reserve monetary policy and economic data [3] - Kenanga economists predict that concerns over US tariffs are expected to pressure the Malaysian ringgit (MYR), with the USD/MYR exchange rate anticipated to fluctuate between 4.25 and 4.28 [1] - Nomura Securities highlights that the US tariff policy may indirectly weaken Singapore's export-dependent economy, with specific industry tariffs potentially causing direct economic impacts [2]

Group 1 - The ongoing US-China trade war has entered a new phase, with Washington showing unprecedented urgency to engage in high-level talks with China to address key trade issues [1][3] - The upcoming expiration of the 24% tariffs on Chinese goods, set for early August, is a significant catalyst for this diplomatic push, as the end of the 90-day buffer period agreed upon in Geneva looms [3][5] - The US administration is facing a dilemma regarding the tariffs; reinstating them could lead to a stock market crash, while removing them could damage the US's political standing [5][9] Group 2 - The US's agricultural trade strategy has become more complex, with American soybean exports to China experiencing significant volatility, prompting pressure from Midwestern farmers on Washington [7][9] - The US's previous hardline stance on companies like Huawei and ZTE has backfired, as other countries have filled the void in the Chinese market, highlighting the challenges the US faces in regaining market share [9][10] - The negotiations are complicated by the need to balance actual interest distribution with political optics, as domestic anti-China sentiment remains high [12][15] Group 3 - The August talks present an opportunity for both sides to reassess past grievances and losses, emphasizing that international relations are not won by sheer volume but by pragmatic cooperation [15]

巴西总统卢拉：特朗普本可以就关税问题致电巴西，但他只是在自己的网站上发表了这封信，这是不尊 重的。 ...

巴西财长Haddad：我们将不得不寻找解决关税问题的办法，巴西与美国历来保持良好的关系。巴西的 外交政策愿意与美国政府共同寻找解决方案。 ...

Group 1 - The Malaysian Prime Minister discussed the Gaza situation and tariff issues with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio during talks [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol are generally weak, and the recent tariff issue is still simmering with market risk - aversion sentiment remaining. It is expected that the ethylene glycol market may maintain a weak trend [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The closing price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract EG2509 on the 9th was 4,283 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 119,519 lots, and the open interest was 285,305 lots [7]. - The closing price of EG2601 was 4,312 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan, with an open interest of 7,541 lots, an increase of 222 lots [7]. 3.2. Industry News - International oil prices remained at a near - two - week high. On Tuesday (July 8), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $68.33 per barrel, up $0.40 or 0.59% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.15 per barrel, up $0.57 or 0.82% [8]. - In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market, the spot negotiation price this week was 4,353 - 4,355 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The negotiation price for next - week's spot was also 4,353 - 4,355 yuan/ton, and that for late July was 4,354 - 4,357 yuan/ton. The basis of this week's spot, next - week's spot, and late - July spot against EG2509 was at a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton, 70 - 72 yuan/ton, and 71 - 74 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - The mainstream transaction price in the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market was 4,335 - 4,360 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3. Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts including PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, futures - spot price difference, international crude oil futures main - contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16].

德国总理默茨：正与美国政府以及欧盟委员会就关税问题进行密切磋商。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, with nickel ore prices slightly decreasing, intermediate product supply slightly increasing, recent resurgence of tariff issues, and general market demand, it is expected that nickel prices will be under pressure in the near - term, seeking support downward. The medium - to - long - term strategy remains to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For the stainless steel market, due to steel mill production cuts, nickel iron production cuts, a slight decline in nickel ore prices, and the market being in the off - season with general spot transactions, it is expected that stainless steel will oscillate weakly within a range in the near - term, and the medium - to - long - term strategy also remains to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Nickel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 8, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,860 yuan/ton and closed at 120,370 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.67% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 88,116 lots, and the open interest was 67,223 lots. The main contract had a small gap - up opening at night, rebounded but was blocked, then oscillated and declined. During the day session, it continued to decline, found support, and then oscillated sideways, closing with a negative line. The trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: - **Supply**: In the Philippines, rainfall in the Surigao mining area and seasonal typhoons affected shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply was alleviated due to production cuts at local smelters. In June 2025, Indonesia's ferronickel metal production was 24,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.28%. The estimated production in July was 26,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.31%. In June, Indonesia's nickel hydrometallurgical intermediate product nickel metal production was 38,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14% and a year - on - year increase of 42.98%. The estimated production in July was 40,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.98% and a year - on - year increase of 48.41% [2]. - **Demand**: In the spot market, Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation was about 900 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day, and the prices of mainstream brands also decreased accordingly. With the decline in nickel prices on the disk, refined nickel was in sufficient supply, demand did not show significant growth, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed. Spot transactions were average [2]. - **Inventory**: The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 20,833 (1.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 202,620 (150) tons [2]. - **Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range - bound operations. - **Others**: No suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options operations [3]. Stainless Steel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 8, 2025, the main contract 2508 of stainless steel opened at 12,660 yuan/ton and closed at 12,700 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 103,281 lots, and the open interest was 90,238 lots. The main contract had a small gap - up opening at night, rebounded but was blocked, then oscillated sideways. During the day session, it continued to decline, found support, and then rebounded slightly, but declined in the afternoon, closing with a hanging - man positive line. The trading volume increased slightly, and the open interest increased compared to the previous trading day [4]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: - **Supply**: In the Philippines, rainfall in the Surigao mining area and seasonal typhoons affected shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply was alleviated due to production cuts at local smelters. Indonesian nickel iron production lines were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also stopped production. On the 8th, a major steel mill in South China inquired at a price of 900 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hold), and several thousand tons of nickel iron were traded. The overall negotiation range of nickel iron prices shifted downward [4]. - **Demand**: In the spot market, stainless steel prices on the disk first rose and then fell. Market inquiry activity was low, and it was difficult to make transactions even with price concessions. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi market was 12,725 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was also 12,725 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 105 - 255 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Others**: No suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options operations [5].