2025.11.14 本文字数：1443，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间11月13日，多位美联储官员先后发声，为市场迅速升温的降息预期"泼冷水"。 穆萨莱姆坦言，前期支持降息更多是出于对就业的担忧，而在通胀黏性仍存、经济表现相对有韧性的背景下，接下来"需要更加谨慎"，以防政策 过度宽松。 同一天内，其他地区联储主席也释放了类似信号。克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈玛克（Beth Hammack）表示，利率政策目前仍应保持在"限制性区 间"，以继续对仍高于目标的通胀施加下行压力；明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）则称，约3%的通胀"仍然偏高"，部分劳 动力市场指标已经显露压力迹象，不宜过快放松。 旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly）也提到，在今年已两次降息之后，美联储在"充分就业"和"物价稳定"这两大目标之间的风险大致重新回 到平衡状态，但服务业通胀尚未出现持续回落，市场对进一步宽松的预期需要更克制一些。 Crossmark公司首席执行官兼首席投资官鲍勃·多尔（Bob Doll）在评论中提到，市场对降息寄予厚望，但从美联储官员的最新表态来看，"更多是 一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Kashkari indicates that inflation rates are too high and certain areas of the job market are under pressure [1] Group 1 - Inflation rates are currently elevated, which poses challenges for the economy [1] - Certain sectors within the job market are experiencing stress due to these inflationary pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a rare internal division regarding its policy direction, leading to uncertainty about future interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Divergence in Policy Perspectives - During the September meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to cut rates by 25 basis points, with 10 out of 19 officials expecting further cuts within the year, reflecting a pace similar to previous years [3] - Hawkish officials question the necessity of further rate cuts, citing stable consumer spending and the potential for businesses to pass on tariff-related cost increases to consumers, which could drive inflation [3] - Dovish officials express concern over a weakening labor market and argue that current interest rates are restrictive, suggesting that rate cuts could support the job market [3] Group 2: Key Areas of Disagreement - The first point of contention is whether price increases due to tariffs are a short-term phenomenon or a long-term pressure, with hawks fearing sustained inflation and doves believing current cost-passing capabilities are limited [4] - The second disagreement revolves around the reasons for slowing job growth, with recent data showing a drop in monthly job additions from 168,000 at the beginning of the year to an average of 29,000 over the last three months [4] - The third issue is whether current interest rates are still at a restrictive level, with hawks arguing that rates are near neutral after two cuts, while doves maintain that there is still room for cuts [4] Group 3: Powell's Balancing Act - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is attempting to balance the differing views within the committee, signaling that a December rate cut is not guaranteed to manage market expectations and ease internal tensions [5] - Powell has previously faced similar situations and has adjusted policy statements to convey caution, but the current level of division is significant enough that mere statement adjustments may not suffice [6] Group 4: Ongoing Divisions - Despite dovish officials arguing that the current economic situation differs from the high inflation environment of 2021-2022, the lack of data makes it difficult for them to present stronger arguments [7] - Hawkish officials warn that once economic data resumes publication early next year, the Fed may find inflation still elevated [7] - The San Francisco Fed President has articulated the dovish perspective, indicating that slowing wage growth suggests weakened labor demand and cautioning against overly tightening policies that could stifle economic growth [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government shutdown has delayed nearly all federal economic data releases for September and October, but it appears to be nearing an end, which will allow for the resumption of data collection and reporting [2][3] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for key reports such as nonfarm payrolls and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which are expected to be released soon after the government reopens [4] - Economic indicators suggest a slowing labor market and inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's comfort level, with expectations of gradual deceleration through 2026 [6][8] Economic Data Delays - The shutdown has caused significant delays in the release of important economic reports, including nonfarm payrolls, CPI, retail sales, and personal spending and income [2][5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the October jobs report will be released shortly after the reopening, potentially by next Tuesday or Wednesday, but other major data releases may be delayed by at least a week [4][5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that despite the data freeze, alternative data sources suggest that the macroeconomic picture has not changed significantly [6][7] - Powell noted that the labor market is gradually cooling, and inflation remains elevated, with the key inflation rate estimated at 2.8% for September, above the Fed's 2% target [7][8] Economic Growth Projections - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker estimates third-quarter growth at a 4% rate, while Goldman Sachs projects fourth-quarter growth at 1.3%, an upward revision from previous forecasts, indicating a full-year growth pace of 2% [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has created a significant "black hole" in the economy, leading to a backlog of critical economic reports that will soon be released [2] - The September employment report is expected to be released soon, with estimates suggesting it could be available as early as this week or early next week [2] - The shutdown has severely impacted the release of key inflation reports for October, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which may not be published at all [4] Group 2 - The delay in the September employment report and the potential absence of the October inflation reports will hinder the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts in their upcoming meetings [4] - The October employment report is likely to be delayed significantly, possibly until just before the Federal Reserve's next meeting on December 9-10, and may even be combined with the November report [4][6] - The forced leave of hundreds of thousands of federal employees could distort the data in the October report, making it less reliable [6]

Core Insights - The article analyzes the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on job markets by examining 180 million job postings from 2023 to 2025, revealing significant trends in job displacement and creation [1][3]. Group 1: Job Market Trends - The overall job postings are projected to decrease by 8% in 2025 compared to 2024, indicating a contraction in the employment market [3]. - Specific job roles have seen declines exceeding this average, suggesting deeper issues potentially linked to AI [4]. Group 2: Job Displacement - The top ten job roles with the largest declines include CG artists, compliance officers, photographers, writers, and sustainability experts, with creative roles particularly affected [5][7]. - Creative management positions, such as creative directors and managers, have shown resilience and even growth, contrasting with execution-level roles [8][12]. Group 3: Job Creation - The ten job roles with the highest growth include software engineering directors, legal directors, real estate directors, and data engineering directors, with machine learning engineers seeing a notable increase of 39.62% [11]. - Senior leadership roles have experienced minimal decline, only dropping by 1.7%, while management roles decreased by 5.7%, indicating a preference for experienced professionals over entry-level positions [14]. Group 4: Impact on New Graduates - New graduates, particularly in entry-level positions, are facing significant challenges, with many roles disappearing from the market [20][22]. - The article highlights a sentiment among young job seekers that the job market has become increasingly difficult, with many feeling disillusioned despite low overall unemployment rates [24][26]. Group 5: The Future of Work - The article discusses the potential loss of apprenticeship models due to AI's efficiency, which may eliminate the need for training and mentorship of new employees [30][32]. - The narrative emphasizes a shift where experienced professionals may prefer to utilize AI for tasks, leading to a lack of opportunities for newcomers to gain essential skills [54][63].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding further monetary easing have become more pronounced, complicating the decision-making process for Chairman Jerome Powell as the December meeting approaches [2] Group 1: Diverging Views on Monetary Policy - St. Louis Fed President Musalem expresses skepticism about further monetary easing, emphasizing the need for caution and stating that the current inflation rate is closer to 3% rather than the Fed's 2% target [3] - Musalem highlights that financial conditions, including stock valuations and housing prices, are high, and the labor market is cooling, suggesting that measures to curb inflation should continue [3] - San Francisco Fed President Daly shows a more open attitude towards rate cuts, noting that wage growth is slowing and tariffs have not broadly increased inflation [4] - Daly is closely monitoring productivity improvements from AI applications, which could drive economic growth without exacerbating inflation [4] - Fed Governor Miran advocates for a more significant rate cut, suggesting a 50 basis point reduction at the upcoming meeting, citing evidence of declining inflation and a weak labor market [5] Group 2: Employment Market Uncertainty - The employment market's current state is unclear due to government shutdowns, with the Chicago Fed predicting a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, the highest in four years [5] - A New York Fed survey indicates a worsening outlook for unemployment, with a 1.4 percentage point increase in the probability of rising unemployment over the next 12 months, reaching 42.5% [6] - Citigroup economists suggest that recent layoffs by large companies may lead to an increase in initial unemployment claims, although the timing and scale remain uncertain [6] - Wells Fargo's economist notes that while risks of a significant economic slowdown cannot be ruled out, the job market appears stable without widespread layoffs [7] - As of the report's publication, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased from 72% to 63%, indicating uncertainty in market expectations [7]

小摩认为目前的情况大致仍接近这一水平，不包括因政府雇员被临时休假而带来的失业率短期上升。最 突出的数据是ADP的私营部门就业估算。10月份ADP就业人数反弹至增加4.2万人，而9月份为减少2.9万 人，8月份为减少3000人。 智通财经APP获悉，2025年11月的第一个星期五，美国劳工统计局因政府停摆再次缺席"非农日"。没有 官方就业报告，小摩整理了来自其他就业数据的信号，总体来看，自9月以来变化不大。截至8月，私营 部门就业人数的三个月平均增长为2.9万人，失业率为4.32%。 虽然ADP在预测非农月度就业变化方面可能存在较大偏差，但其样本量庞大，且今年累计的就业增长与 非农数据总体吻合。未来，ADP将在美东时间每周二上午发布一个四周平均的就业变化数据。 小摩表示，考虑到就业数据通常存在波动性，10月份的读数也可以被视为"稳定"。但由于此前四个月中 有三个月为负值，任何正增长都对"就业市场正在走弱"的说法构成反驳。 该行指出，持续申请失业救济金的人数则更令人担忧。尽管最近几周的轻微上升可能是季节性因素残 留，但其同比增长速度并未放缓，通常保持在4%以上，这表明失业率正在逐步上升。 来自州政府级的基础数据显 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a deterioration in public perception of the job market in October, while inflation expectations have slightly decreased [1][2] - The New York Fed's survey coincides with a similar trend observed in the University of Michigan's survey, where 71% of respondents expect unemployment to rise in the next year, more than double the rate from the previous year [1] - The survey results suggest increasing concerns about the job market amid signs of weakness, which may exacerbate internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies [1] Group 2 - Consumer price inflation expectations for the next year have decreased from 3.4% in September to 3.2% in October, while long-term inflation expectations remain stable around 3% [2] - There is a mixed outlook on commodity prices, with expectations for declines in gasoline and food prices, but an increase in anticipated medical cost inflation to the highest level since February 2023 [2] - The probability of higher unemployment in the next year has risen to 43%, the highest since April, indicating a growing concern among consumers about job security [2] - Perceptions of household financial conditions continue to worsen, with more respondents indicating their financial situation is worse than a year ago and expecting further deterioration [2] - There is an improvement in the perception of credit availability, with the proportion of households believing loans are harder to obtain dropping to the lowest level since 2022 [2]

Group 1 - The Canadian labor market showed strong performance in October, with a net addition of 66,000 jobs and a decrease in the unemployment rate from 7.1% to 6.9%, marking the second consecutive month of improvement [1][2] - The job growth significantly exceeded market expectations, which anticipated a loss of 20,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.2% [1] - The increase in employment was primarily driven by part-time positions, while full-time jobs remained relatively unchanged. The private sector added 73,000 jobs, indicating a recovery in hiring intentions among businesses [1] Group 2 - Job growth was predominantly concentrated in Ontario, which accounted for 55,000 of the new positions, representing over 80% of the national job increase [2] - Average hourly wages rose by 3.5% year-on-year to CAD 37.06, although the growth rate is still below the peak wage increases seen during inflationary periods [2] - The Canadian job market has experienced significant volatility this year, with a total of 127,000 jobs added in September and October, offsetting a loss of 106,000 jobs in July and August [2]