（文章来源：新华财经） 美国就业咨询机构查林杰－格雷－克里斯马斯公司（Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.）当日盘前发布 的数据显示，美国雇主5月裁员人数为9.38万人，低于4月份的10.5万人 由于美国就业市场显现出一定的疲软迹象，市场聚焦于将于6日公布的美国5月份非农就业数据。市场预 期，美国5月份新增12.5万个就业岗位，环比减少5.2万个。 当日美国总统特朗普与特斯拉公司CEO马斯克在社交媒体上就"大而美法案"等相互攻击并相互威胁，两 人关系恶化引发市场对相关公司业绩的担忧。 个股方面，由于马斯克与特朗普当日在社交媒体上相互攻击，特斯拉股价当日暴跌，跌幅一度超过 17%，收盘时下跌14.26%。特朗普媒体集团股价当日则下跌8.04%。 新华财经纽约6月5日电（记者刘亚南）由于投资者在美国发布非农就业数据前保持谨慎和当日就业数据 及权重股下跌拖累，纽约股市三大股指5日高开低走，早盘一度明显走高，随后震荡回落，收盘时纽约 股市三大股指均下跌。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌108.00点，收于42319.74点，跌幅为0.25%；标 准普尔500种股票指数 ...

就业数据或仍强劲 通胀将成关键观察点 市场普遍预期，美国劳工部将于周五公布的5月就业报告将显示失业率连续第三个月维持在4.2%，新增 就业岗位约为13万个，虽低于4月的17.7万，仍高于显示劳动力市场健康所需的10万个基准值。 与此同时，5月消费者价格指数(CPI)预计将出现再加速增长，原因是近期实施的大规模进口关税开始反 映在商品和服务价格中。尽管整体通胀此前已有所降温，4月核心PCE指数年增率为2.1%，略高于美联 储的2%目标，但高企的物价压力仍未完全解除。 智通财经APP获悉，多位美联储高级官员周四表示，在当前经济形势下，通胀压力依然高于就业市场疲 软带来的风险，这暗示美联储可能在更长时间内维持利率不变。 美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒在纽约经济俱乐部的讲话中表示，她倾向于继续维持当前的政策利率水 平不变，原因是"通胀上行风险大于就业和产出下行风险"。 "如果通胀的上行风险依旧存在，我将继续支持维持联邦基金利率在当前水平，"库格勒表示。她指出， 近期加征的关税已经对价格产生上行压力，而尽管经济出现一些降温迹象，"尚未构成实质性放缓"。 稍晚些时候，堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密德也表达了类似担忧。他指出，虽 ...

美联储哈克：保持美联储的独立性至关重要。经济面临多种可能的路径，到目前为止，就业市场基本稳 定。 ...

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly increased to 247,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000, marking the highest level since October 2024 [1] - The four-week average of initial jobless claims rose to 235,000, indicating a prolonged reemployment period for unemployed individuals [1] - Employers announced 93,816 layoffs in May, a 12% decrease from April but a 47% increase compared to the same month last year, reflecting economic pressures on companies [1] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm labor productivity in Q1 decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, a larger decline than the previously reported 0.8%, marking the first decline since Q2 2022 [2] - Unit labor costs rose by 6.6% year-on-year in Q1, higher than the previously reported 5.7%, indicating increased labor costs for businesses [2] - Economic uncertainty due to tariffs is causing companies in sectors like airlines, retail, and automotive to withdraw or not issue financial guidance for 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicates that increased income and a strong labor market will drive higher consumer spending [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ECB highlights that rising incomes are expected to contribute positively to consumer expenditure [1] - A robust job market is identified as a key factor supporting increased spending [1] Group 2: Implications for Spending - The combination of higher income levels and strong employment is projected to lead to more significant consumer spending in the economy [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the unexpected increase in job vacancies in the U.S., rising from 7.2 million in March to 7.39 million in April, surpassing economists' expectations of 7.1 million [1] - The private sector is the main driver of this growth, particularly in professional and business services, healthcare, and social assistance, indicating a strong demand for talent in these areas [1] - The public sector shows a mixed performance, with job vacancies increasing despite a decrease in positions within state and local education departments [1] Group 2 - The unexpected growth in job vacancies, along with stable hiring activity and a historically low unemployment rate, supports the Federal Reserve's view of a "healthy" labor market [3] - Economists note a subtle change in the labor market, as the time it takes for unemployed individuals to find new jobs is gradually increasing, suggesting potential future slowdowns [3] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to provide insights into labor market momentum, with expectations of a slowdown in job growth while the unemployment rate remains stable [4]

（低于市场预期的ADP就业数据落地，再次带来金价短线利多影响，数据落地前金价维持短线3347一线区间震 荡，伴随着ADP就业数据落地金价小幅加速上探3354一线后逐步过渡呈震荡上行，数据的公布并未改变短期震 荡走势。） ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson：在经历了今年的强劲开局后，招聘正在失去动力。然而，5月份的薪酬增 长几乎没有变化，无论是留在工作岗位还是跳槽的人，都保持在强劲的水平。 分析称，美国ADP数据显示，5月份，私营企业仅创造了37,000个新工作岗位，这是两年多来的最小增幅，因 为自20世纪30年代以来最严重的全球贸易战促使许多公司暂停招聘。私营部门的就业增长远低于预期。接受 《华尔街日报》调查的经济学家此前预计将增加11万人。尽管特朗普总统放宽了对其他国家的关税，但由于贸 易战的持续，企业在招聘方面变得更加犹豫。然而，少数企业仍在选择性地填补新的就业岗位，并为贸易争端 平息后的增长做好准备。《华尔街日报》调查显示，预计美国政府周五将公布5月份新增12.5万个就业岗位。 2025年美国4月非农就业数据回顾： 美国5月季调后非农就业人口报告定于北京时间周五（6月6日）20：30公布， ...

核 心 观 点 近期我国城镇调查失业率维持在 5.2% 上下，但失业保险基金的支出却保持较高增长。两者为何形成如此大的 差异？我国就业市场的环境到底如何呢？ 失业金支出，为何高增长 ？ 早在 2018 年，人社部就对《失业保险条例》进行修订，将失业保险基金的支出 范围扩大到预防失业领域，同时增强了保生活和促就业功能。因此，失业保险金支出还反映了促就业的政策力 度。不过，近期失业保险基金支出的增长，基本可以排除失业保险金支出范围调整的影响。当前大部分省份已 经确立起失业保险金标准与最低工资标准的联动机制。与此同时， 2023 年至今，所有省市均先后调升最低工 资标准，相应的失业金发放标准也多有提高，对于失业基金支出有一定影响。失业金支出的增长与就业环境有 关，不过，失业金领取情况对就业市场的反映有所滞后。政策规定失业保险金本身要低于当地的最低工资标 准，所以政策设计上鼓励失业人群尽快回到就业市场。那在短期内无法或者不愿回到就业市场的群体，才更有 可能选择去进行失业保险金的申领。 上市公司看就业：哪些行业是好雇主？ 从上市公司数据看， 2024 年上市公司员工总数增速放缓，平均月薪 有所下降。从行业角度看， 汽车 ...

美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利（2026年FOMC票委）：通胀仍然没有回落至2%这一目标。 就业市场出现一些放缓迹象。 ...

Group 1: Job Market Overview - The private-sector payrolls report from ADP for May shows a weak job creation of +37K, significantly below the projected +110K, marking the lowest tally since March 2023 [1][2] - The average job creation over the past four months is only +82K, compared to +197K in the previous four months, indicating a substantial decline in job growth [2] - Goods-producing jobs decreased by -2K, while services added a modest +36K jobs, reflecting ongoing challenges in the labor market [3][4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The Leisure & Hospitality sector gained +38K jobs, followed by Financial Services with +20K and Construction with +6K, while Education & Health Services lost -13K and Professional/Business Services saw a decline of -27K [4] - Medium-sized companies (50-499 employees) led job gains with +49K, while large firms lost -3K and small businesses dropped -13K, highlighting the vulnerability of small-sized companies in the current labor market [5] Group 3: Wage Trends - Job Stayers experienced a +4.5% year-over-year wage increase, while Job Changers saw a +7.0% increase, indicating a generally healthy wage environment despite lower levels compared to previous periods [6] - Wages are stabilizing at robust levels, but there are no strong sectors driving significant hiring, leading to a hesitant job market [7] Group 4: Market Reaction - Following the ADP report, pre-market indexes shifted from positive to negative, with the Dow down -44 points, S&P 500 down -4, and Nasdaq down -20 [8] - Year-to-date performance shows the Dow at -0.7%, S&P at +0.7%, Nasdaq at +2.2%, and Russell 2000 at -6.5%, indicating mixed market sentiment [8]