Core Insights - The recent surge in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is attributed to multiple factors including supply-demand dynamics, market risk aversion, and macroeconomic monetary policies [1][2][4] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - As of October 10, gold prices reached $3993 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 50%, with a peak of $4000 per ounce on October 8 [1] - The rise in gold prices is driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, government shutdowns prompting safe-haven buying, and geopolitical uncertainties [2][4] - The World Gold Council reported that central banks are expected to purchase a total of 415 tons of gold by mid-2025, supporting gold prices [2] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have shown a stronger performance compared to gold, with a year-to-date increase of 75.4%, reaching $50.67 per ounce [1][3] - The increase in silver prices is attributed to similar investment demand as gold, along with low supply elasticity and a smaller market size, leading to higher price volatility [3] - The iShares silver ETF holdings increased by over 1000 tons since the beginning of the year, indicating strong long-term investment demand for silver [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Most investment institutions believe there is further upside potential for precious metals, with UBS predicting gold prices could reach $4200 per ounce in the coming months [5] - Under neutral assumptions, gold prices are expected to exceed $4500 per ounce by March 2026, with optimistic scenarios suggesting prices could surpass $4800 per ounce [5] - The ongoing concerns about "stagflation" risks in the U.S. economy and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts are expected to continue driving gold prices upward [6]

Gold Sector - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical tensions, including the potential transfer of U.S. military capabilities to Ukraine, are increasing market risk aversion, which may support gold prices [1] - As of the end of September, China's central bank's gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces (approximately 2,303.523 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 40,000 ounces and continuing a trend of 11 consecutive months of gold accumulation [1] - In the first three quarters of this year, gold ETF inflows reached $64 billion, with $26 billion in the third quarter alone, and a record inflow of $17.3 billion in September [1] - Short-term expectations of a correction in gold prices may arise due to internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts, although the long-term outlook remains bullish [1] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish engulfing pattern, suggesting potential further declines in gold prices, with a key resistance level at $4,005 [1] Oil Sector - The overall sentiment in the oil market is pessimistic, with the potential escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict being a significant bullish factor for oil prices [2] - However, the risk of oversupply remains high, as OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, gradually unwinding a previous reduction agreement [2] - The end of the U.S. demand season and weaker economic data suggest that demand recovery may not meet expectations, increasing the likelihood of oversupply in the fourth quarter and into 2026 [2] - Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with resistance at $62.78 and support at $60 [2] U.S. Dollar Index - There are differing views among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate cuts, which may dampen market optimism for significant rate reductions and negatively impact the dollar [3][4] - Recent changes in Japan's government have led to a depreciation of the yen, which has somewhat supported the dollar index, although further upside for the dollar may be limited [4] - Technical analysis shows a bullish trend for the dollar index, with a key support level at 99 [4] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been consolidating at high levels, with a potential downward correction on the horizon [5] - The index remains above the 20-day moving average, indicating that the overall bullish trend is still intact [5] - Key support level to watch is at 47,200 [5] Copper Sector - Recent trading in copper has shown strength, with the potential for further upward movement [6] - The market is currently in a phase of oscillating upward movement, supported by bullish indicators [6] - Key support level to monitor is at $4.98 [6] Market Overview - The U.S. Treasury has announced sanctions against over 50 entities related to Iranian oil [7] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has confirmed a $20 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina [7] - The Federal Reserve's recent comments indicate a continued moderate tightening of policy following the September rate cut, with expectations for more rate cuts as part of risk management [7] Upcoming Data/Events - Key upcoming economic indicators include the U.S. October inflation expectations and the Michigan consumer sentiment index [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current economic operation is generally weak, and subsequent incremental policies may be further introduced. The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through a key level, and the upside space may be further opened. It is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside space [1]. - Due to the US government shutdown, political risks in France and Japan rising, and the US ADP data falling short of expectations, which boosts the expectation of interest - rate cuts, the price of gold is expected to continue to be strong [1]. - The soft squeeze on foreign - market silver has driven the domestic silver price to be strong, but short - term risks of profit - taking at high levels need to be watched out for [1]. - The US ADP non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations has boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts this year. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has exacerbated concerns about the tight global copper supply, and the copper price will continue to be strong [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, combined with the limited supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum, will keep the price strong in the short term [1]. - The production and inventory of alumina continue to increase, and the weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price. However, the alumina price is approaching the cost line, and the downside space is expected to be limited [1]. - Global political risks have risen due to events such as the US government shutdown, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced. The non - ferrous sector is strong. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory is expected to support the domestic zinc price, but the domestic social inventory has increased after the holiday, and high - level selling hedging opportunities can be considered [1]. - The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, boosting non - ferrous metals. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the quota approval situation in 2026 should be monitored in the fourth quarter. Nickel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but high inventory may limit the upside space. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term nickel surplus [1]. - The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to operate on a short - term basis and wait for high - level selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Due to macro - level positives and the impact of Indonesia's ore export ban, the shortage of tin ore supply has intensified, and the tin price is expected to continue to strengthen [1]. - For industrial silicon, it is in the wet season in the southwest and continuous resumption of production in the northwest, and there is an expectation of production cuts in polysilicon, so it is bearish [1]. - For polysilicon, there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, an increase in silicon wafer production scheduling, and the long - term anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and market sentiment has subsided, so it will fluctuate [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and supply - side production scheduling has increased [1]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, they ended the long holiday stably, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the valuation is low, so they will fluctuate [1]. - For iron ore, the anti - involution logic is subject to tidal trading. The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply is recovering while demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - For glass, the anti - involution logic is tidal, the pressure of supply surplus still exists, and the price is under pressure despite the marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - For soda ash, it follows glass, with a weak reality and large supply - surplus pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - For coking coal, the 05 contract failed to reach a new high before the holiday. Although the spot is strong, the expectation has weakened. The spot and futures prices are still in the process of bottom - searching, but considering that many short - sellers rushed to sell before the holiday, it is not appropriate to continue to short, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For palm oil, Indonesia plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, which may have a bearish impact on near - month contracts, but there is still support for far - month contracts after 05. The MPOB September report is expected to show production cuts and inventory reduction, which will support the price [1]. - For soybean oil, China's restriction on rare - earth exports is a bargaining chip in Sino - US negotiations. COFCO Yihai exporting 10,000 tons of soybean oil each in December will accelerate the inventory reduction of soybean oil. The expected reduction of US soybean ending inventory has led to poor crushing margins, and the subsequent reduction in raw materials and oil - mill crushing will support the soybean - oil price [1]. - For rapeseed products, the ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the double festivals, supporting international rapeseed products prices, but there is no new driving force. It may be driven up by soybean and palm oil, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For cotton, in the short term, the domestic cotton price will probably fluctuate widely within a range. In the long term, the market may face pressure as new cotton comes onto the market [1]. - For raw sugar, the high proportion of sugar production may be reduced, and the raw - sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom, but the upside space is relatively limited due to oversupply. In the domestic market, the large - scale import has led to the full operation of sugar - processing plants, and there is still pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the overall rebound space is limited, and the strategy of shorting at high levels should be maintained [1]. - For corn, without obvious policy and weather changes, under the expectation of selling pressure for the new - season corn and the decline in planting costs, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The grain - storage rhythm of traders and policy changes should be monitored [1]. - For soybean meal, the domestic soybean - buying and crushing margins are poor, and the domestic market has no obvious premium due to the trade war. The valuation is low. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American weather. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the opportunity arises [1]. - For pulp, the current trading logic is about the trading of old needle - wood pulp warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the pressure on the futures market is high. It is advisable to conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - For log futures, the fundamentals of logs are strong, the foreign - market quotation has risen, and the spot price has increased, so the log futures will be strong [1]. - For live pigs, the pig slaughter continues to increase, the weight has not decreased significantly, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The overall outlook is bearish [1]. - For crude oil, OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation has cooled down, and demand has entered the off - season, so it will fluctuate [1]. - For fuel oil, it has the same situation as crude oil, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production, the geopolitical situation cooling down, and demand entering the off - season [1]. - For asphalt, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient [1]. - For natural rubber, there are many disturbances on the supply side, inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the RU warehouse receipts are significantly less than the same period in previous years, so it is bullish [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC+ continues to increase production, the raw - material fundamentals are continuously loose, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, downstream transactions have become dull, and high - level production and high inventory have not been the main factors for suppression [1]. - For PTA, the crude - oil price is weak, the PX market trading is dull, the Asian naphtha cracking is running stably, the price difference between PX and MX has dropped to $132, supporting the short - process profit of PX. Domestic large - scale PTA plants are undergoing rotational maintenance, and domestic PTA production has declined [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East - China ports is still low, the port arrivals this week are still limited, the overseas ethylene - glycol import is expected to decline, and domestic plant commissioning has put continuous pressure on the ethylene - glycol price. After the holiday, as the peak season for polyester is coming to an end, polyester is expected to be weak [1]. - For short - fiber, short - fiber factory plants are gradually resuming operation. As the price falls, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts in the market has weakened [1]. - For styrene, the international crude - oil market is weak, the US benzene price is relatively low compared to the gasoline price, the economy of STDP is obviously weak, and the US export demand is still restricted by arbitrage. New domestic styrene plants have been put into operation, but the downstream polymer industry has stagnated [1]. - For lime, the export sentiment has eased slightly, the domestic demand is insufficient, and the upside space is limited, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - For DR357, the center of the crude - oil market price has been slightly adjusted downward, the maintenance intensity has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, so the price will fluctuate strongly [1]. - For PVC, the maintenance support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the market is returning to fundamentals, and there is large supply pressure due to less maintenance compared to the previous period, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so the price will fluctuate weakly [1]. - For caustic soda, many alumina plants in Guangxi are planning to start production, there are unplanned maintenance increases in Shandong in October, the factory loads in South China and Zhejiang are difficult to increase in the short term, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts. The short - term futures price is bearish, and it is bullish in the medium term [1]. - For LPG, OPEC's production increase and high domestic crude - oil inventory are suppressing the upward momentum of LPG. The international CP and FEI prices have weakened, and the domestic fundamentals are weak, with the peak season not being prosperous [1]. - For container shipping on the European route, the price has gradually fallen to a low level, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound, it is gradually entering the contract - changing period, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, so it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index: The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through a key level, and the upside space may be further opened. It is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Due to the US government shutdown, political risks in France and Japan rising, and the US ADP data falling short of expectations, which boosts the expectation of interest - rate cuts, the price of gold is expected to continue to be strong [1]. - Silver: The soft squeeze on foreign - market silver has driven the domestic silver price to be strong, but short - term risks of profit - taking at high levels need to be watched out for [1]. - Copper: The US ADP non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations has boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has exacerbated concerns about the tight global copper supply, and the copper price will continue to be strong [1]. - Aluminum: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, combined with the limited supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum, will keep the price strong in the short term [1]. - Alumina: The production and inventory of alumina continue to increase, and the weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price. However, the alumina price is approaching the cost line, and the downside space is expected to be limited [1]. - Zinc: Global political risks have risen due to events such as the US government shutdown, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced. The non - ferrous sector is strong. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory is expected to support the domestic zinc price, but the domestic social inventory has increased after the holiday, and high - level selling hedging opportunities can be considered [1]. - Nickel: The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, boosting non - ferrous metals. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the quota approval situation in 2026 should be monitored in the fourth quarter. Nickel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but high inventory may limit the upside space. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term nickel surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to operate on a short - term basis and wait for high - level selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: Due to macro - level positives and the impact of Indonesia's ore export ban, the shortage of tin ore supply has intensified, and the tin price is expected to continue to strengthen [1]. Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: It is in the wet season in the southwest and continuous resumption of production in the northwest, and there is an expectation of production cuts in polysilicon, so it is bearish [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, an increase in silicon wafer production scheduling, and the long - term anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and market sentiment has subsided, so it will fluctuate [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and supply - side production scheduling has increased [1]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They ended the long holiday stably, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the valuation is low, so they will fluctuate [1]. - Iron Ore: The anti - involution logic is subject to tidal trading. The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply is recovering while demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - Glass: The anti - involution logic is tidal, the pressure of supply surplus still exists, and the price is under pressure despite the marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows glass, with a weak reality and large supply - surplus pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The 05 contract failed to reach a new high before the holiday. Although the spot is strong, the expectation has weakened. The spot and futures prices are still in the process of bottom - searching, but considering that many short - sellers rushed to sell before the holiday, it is not appropriate to continue to short, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Indonesia plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, which may have a bearish impact on near - month contracts, but there is still support for far - month contracts after 05. The MPOB September report is expected to show production cuts and inventory reduction, which will support the price [1]. - Soybean Oil: China's restriction on rare - earth exports is a bargaining chip in Sino - US negotiations. COFCO Yihai exporting 10,000 tons of soybean oil each in December will accelerate the inventory reduction of soybean oil. The expected reduction of US soybean ending inventory has led to poor crushing margins, and the subsequent reduction in raw materials and oil - mill crushing will support the soybean - oil price [1]. - Rapeseed Products: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the double festivals, supporting international rapeseed products prices, but there is no new driving force. It may be driven up by soybean and palm oil, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: In the short term, the domestic cotton price will probably fluctuate widely within a range. In the long term, the market may face pressure as new cotton comes onto the market [1]. - Raw Sugar: The high proportion of sugar production may be reduced, and the raw - sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom, but the upside space is relatively limited due to oversupply. In the domestic market, the large - scale import has led to the full operation of sugar - processing plants, and there is still pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the overall rebound space is limited, and the strategy of shorting at high levels should be maintained [1]. - Corn: Without obvious policy and weather changes, under the expectation of selling pressure for the new - season corn and the decline in planting costs, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The grain - storage rhythm of traders and policy changes should be monitored [1]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean - buying and crushing margins are poor, and the domestic market has no obvious premium due to the trade war. The valuation is low. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American weather. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the opportunity arises [1]. - Pulp: The current trading logic is about the trading of

| Millio | > 国反期员 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月09日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 国庆期间贵金属延续强势,国际金价突破四千美元关口,今日国内高开跟涨。美国政府部门停摆,非农等数 据暂停发布、市场避险情绪延续。黄金长期上行逻辑未改，但随着今日特朗普宣布以哈签署第一阶段和平协 议,短期四千美元目标达成后需警惕资金获利了结,高位保持谨慎,前期多单持有,避免追涨介入。 ...

| Millio | > 国反期员 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月09日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 国庆期间贵金属延续强势,国际金价突破四千美元关口,今日国内高开跟涨。美国政府部门停摆,非农等数 据暂停发布、市场避险情绪延续。黄金长期上行逻辑未改，但随着今日特朗普宣布以哈签署第一阶段和平协 议,短期四千美元目标达成后需警惕资金获利了结,高位保持谨慎,前期多单持有,避免追涨介入。 ★特朗普宣布以色列和哈马斯均已签署我们和平计划的第一阶段协议。此前他表示可能在周末前往中东，考 虑去加沙。 ★在近期第六轮投票表决中，美参议院再次否决两党拔款法案，联邦政府继续停摆。 ★美国联邦储备委员会公布了9月货币政策会议的会议纪要。纪要显示，在9月的会议上，与会的美联储委员 们一致认为, ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. government shutdown due to a budget impasse between the Republican and Democratic parties, highlighting the implications for federal employees and the economy [4][5]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Details - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years, starting from October 1, 2023, due to the failure of Congress to pass a temporary funding bill before the budget deadline [4]. - The shutdown results in federal employees being placed on unpaid leave, with only essential services like weather, medical systems, and military operations continuing to function [4][5]. - The last government shutdown lasted 35 days from 2018 to 2019, marking the longest in U.S. history, primarily due to a standoff over funding for a border wall [4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The current crisis stems from disagreements over healthcare subsidies, with Democrats seeking to extend medical assistance provisions while Republicans refuse to negotiate [5]. - There is a notable lack of cooperation between the two parties, with mutual accusations and a hardened stance, indicating deep political divides [5]. - A potential resolution may depend on former President Trump's willingness to engage in discussions regarding healthcare, which could lead to a temporary reopening of the government [5]. Group 3: Market Implications - The government shutdown raises concerns about a cooling job market and undermines government credit, leading to increased market risk aversion [6]. - Following the second failed vote on a funding bill, gold prices surged, surpassing $3900 per ounce, reflecting its status as a reliable hedge during periods of uncertainty [6]. - Historical data suggests that during prolonged shutdowns, gold typically sees an average increase of 2%, with projections indicating that gold prices could reach $4200 per ounce by mid-2026 [6].

早盘速递 2025/10/9 热点资讯 3.10月1日至8日（中秋国庆假期），累计全社会跨区域人员流动量预计24.32亿人次，日均3.04亿人次，同比增长6.2%。 4.美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文表示，自2025年11月1日起，所有从其他国家和地区进口至美国的中 型和重型卡车将被征收25%的关税。 5.2025年10月1日，国家统计局公布，9月中国制造业PMI为49.8%，环比上升0.4个百分点；非制造业PMI为50.0%，下降0.3 个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，上升0.1个百分点，我国经济总体产出扩张略有加快。 重点关注 玉米、原油、棉花、沪铜、沪金 假期外盘表现 -0.62% 5.64% 3.09% 1.74% 4.17% 2.88% 1.41% 2.05% 2.74% 1.01% 0.24% 1.95% 1.02% 2.06% 1.72% 0.15% -2.86% 0.24% -1.95% 0.39% 0.57% 1.42% 1.00% 2.11% 6.72% 0.38% 0.78% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% NYMEX 原 油 NYMEX 天 然 气 CO ...

今日周四（10月9日）亚盘时段，回顾周三美国早盘行情，金价呈现强劲上扬态势。其中，12月黄金期 货合约价格一举突破前高，达到4072美元，刷新了该合约的历史纪录。由于美国政府陷入停摆困境以及 多地缘政治局势存在不确定性，市场避险情绪显著升温，进而有力地助推了贵金属价格的攀升。具体来 看，12月黄金期货合约价格上涨45.8美元，最终报收于4050.2美元。 【要闻速递】 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 从技术面来看，12月黄金期货多头在近期整体技术面中占据明显优势。多头的下一个上行目标是推动期 货收盘价突破4100.00美元的关键阻力位。空头的近期下行目标则是将期货价格打压至3850.00美元的关 键技术支撑位下方。第一阻力位见于今日创下的4071.50美元历史高点，进一步阻力位在4100.00美元； 第一支撑位见于隔夜低点4005.60美元，进一步支撑位在4000.00美元。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 美国政府停摆已成为现代历史上持续时间第四长的停摆事件，这引发了广泛关注。多数联邦政府停摆仅 持续数小时或数天，而当前停摆的持续时长已跻身现代历史第四位。有迹象显示，政府停摆或许不会持 续太久，美国航空旅行延误 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, with both London spot gold and COMEX futures breaking the $4000 per ounce mark, is driven by increased market uncertainty and a rising demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and economic instability [1][3][6]. Gold Price Movement - On October 8, London spot gold reached $4031.56 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 1.19% and a rise of $170 since October 1 [3]. - COMEX gold futures also hit $4052.6 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 1.2% and a rise of $165 since October 1 [3]. - Year-to-date, international gold prices have increased by approximately 50% [3]. Domestic Gold Jewelry Prices - From October 1 to October 8, the price of domestic gold jewelry rose, with prices for 24K gold jewelry increasing from around 1130 RMB to approximately 1165 RMB per gram [3]. - Specific brands reported the following prices on October 8: Chow Sang Sang at 1165 RMB/gram, Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook at 1162 RMB/gram, and Lao Miao at 1160 RMB/gram, reflecting increases of 33-35 RMB per gram since October 1 [5]. Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors - Analysts attribute the rising gold prices to increased risk aversion among investors due to geopolitical uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown and ongoing global conflicts [6][7]. - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of timely economic data, complicating market assessments of the U.S. economy [6]. - China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves, which bolsters confidence in gold as a safe asset [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts generally expect a long-term upward trend in gold prices, supported by ongoing purchases from central banks and the potential for further economic instability [7]. - The issuance of gold-backed tokens by Tether indicates a growing interest in gold as a hedge against market volatility [7].

其二，今天大家比较关心的是黄金，从目前的情况看，现货黄金已经突破了4000美元每盎司，而纽约期金目前已经正式站上了4000美元，盘中最高到了4020 美元，对于黄金的大涨，原因很复杂，我多少感觉主要还是市场的避险情绪升温，不要看现在的美股很强势，其实大部分资金非常谨慎了，我觉得有相当部 分资金为了对冲风险，将部分资金转移到了黄金的多头，这应该是目前金价持续上涨的核心逻辑。 问题是这跟港股的跳水有什么关系呢？我认为港股跟外围市场的联动性比较强，美股那边存在避险情绪，港股这边自然会受到相关的影响，这个时候部分外 资分流到黄金的多头则是不可避免的。 其三，今天还有一个新的现象，应该是从之前的两三天就开始了，美元指数开始上涨了，从10月6日就开始突破了重要的60日线压制，昨天上涨了0.48%， 今天则继续上涨，已经到了98.8960，试想一下接下来美元指数到了100，市场情绪会发生什么转变呢，换句话说目前已经开始发生了转变。 我觉得昨夜美股的下跌跟这个多少有些关系，一些资金对美股的风险认识越来越明显，不排除从美股撤出重新看涨美元，这个时候就会牵扯到一个问题，就 是美元指数跟港股的负相关情形，从过去的走势看，一直都是美 ...