202[Table_ReportInfo] 6 年 02 月 25 日 证券研究报告•金融工程专题报告 资产配置研究系列三 基于 BLACK-LITTERMAN 模型 融合资产择时与风格轮动的资产配置研究 在全球经济周期缩短、地缘政治冲突与技术革命叠加的背景下，市场"不确定性" 已成为投资管理的核心挑战，构建抗脆弱的组合是资本稳健增值的关键。传统均 值-方差模型（MVO）虽为资产配置基石，却因输入参数敏感性高、难以系统融合 主观观点而受限。Black-Litterman（BL）模型通过贝叶斯方法将市场均衡收益与 投资者观点结合，在量化严谨性中兼容主观判断，为机构资产配置提供新范式。 本文基于 BL模型原理，构建"战略+战术"双轮驱动的资产配置模型。战略端以 资产择时与回归分析生成资产收益后验分布，提升配置决策的前瞻性；战术端设 计 A股风格轮动策略，动态跟踪市场风格切换优化投资组合，增强 A股资产收益 表现。模型实现了长期战略配置与短期战术调整的有机结合，为大类资产配置提 供了系统性解决方案。 资产择时层 债券端立足经济基本面（经济增长、地产周期）与市场利率（质押回购、国债利 率）择时中债国债；商品端围绕黄金 ...

近期，QDII基金的溢价风险频繁暴露。 据21世纪经济报道记者粗略统计，春节假期后两个交易日内，超过30只QDII基金公告提示了溢价风 险，涉及纳指ETF、标普500ETF、标普油气ETF、日经225ETF、原油LOF等产品。 批量提示溢价风险 2月25日午间收盘时段，纳斯达克ETF、标普500ETF、标普油气ETF、日经225ETF、巴西ETF等8只QDII 基金分别公告称，截至当日午间收盘，其二级市场交易价格明显高于基金份额参考净值，出现较大幅度 溢价。 例如，个别产品二级市场价格较基金份额参考净值溢价幅度达到6%。 不仅如此，同一天，另有10只QDII基金通过公告，提示投资者关注其二级市场交易价格溢价风险。 若追溯至2月24日，春节假期后的2个交易日内，超过30只QDII基金发布了溢价风险公告。 其中，个别产品除了提示溢价风险，还同步采取了停牌措施。 2月25日凌晨，易方达基金公告称，为保护投资者的利益，原油LOF易方达于2026年2月25日开市起至当 日10:30停牌，自2026年2月25日10:30复牌。若该基金在公告日当日二级市场交易价格溢价幅度未有效 回落，基金可根据实际情况通过向深圳证券交易所 ...

继2025年累涨75.63%牛冠全球后，韩国综合指数2026年至今再度累涨45%，继续牛冠全球。 根据机构截至周二汇编的数据，韩国股市总市值攀升至3.76万亿美元，自2025年初以来累计增加约2.23万亿美元。这一规模已超过 法国的3.69万亿美元，使韩国在全球股市市值排名中位列第九。 韩国今年接连超越法国和德国，凸显出投资者正迅速对其市场进行重估，大量资本涌入与AI相关的存储器芯片和机器人龙头企 业。此次市值飙升，反映出韩国在全球AI供应链中日益重要的地位，使其能在经济总量相对较小的情况下，股市表现却优于规模 更大的经济体。 近一年，韩国综指涨幅超120%，日经225、巴西IBOVESPA指数涨幅均超50%，远超标普500约14%的涨幅。 从A股ETF看，中韩半导体ETF年内涨幅超53%，巴西ETF年内涨超37%，日经ETF涨超19%，日本东证指数ETF、亚太精选ETF 南方、法国CAC40ETF涨幅超10%，纳指科技ETF、纳指ETF、美国50ETF年内均下跌。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 年内涨幅% | 管理人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 513310.SH | 中韩 ...

（1）跨境ETF的概念 跨境ETF是指以跟踪境外资本市场证券作为成份券的指数并在国内证券交易所上市的ETF。简单地说， 跨境ETF就是"跟踪境外指数，境内上市交易"的ETF。跨境ETF是境内投资者投资境外市场的最有效的 途径之一，已受到投资者普遍欢迎。投资者常见的纳指ETF、标普500ETF等品种都是跨境ETF。 （2）跨境ETF的特点 近几年，跨境ETF产品越来越丰富，涵盖了全球主要经济体和市场。国内投资者只要开立证券交易账 户，即可以便捷地通过投资跨境ETF，实现全球资产配置。跨境ETF具有以下特点： ①海外投资便捷。投资者不需要开通海外账户及换汇，即可通过跨境ETF投资海外证券资产，实现全球 资产配置。 （4）跨境ETF如何受汇率影响 跨境ETF投资可以使用人民币进行申购、赎回和交易，资金由基金管理人换汇后投资于境外资本市场， 不占用个人的外汇使用额度。跨境ETF以人民币计价，外币升值有益于基金净值，反之亦然，人民币升 值则对基金净值不利。 选自深圳证券交易所基金管理部编著的《深交所ETF投资问答》（中国财政经济出版社2024年版） ②交易效率高。不同于国内A股ETF，跨境ETF可实现日内T+0回转交易 ...

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - On February 6, the A-share chemical sector experienced a strong rally, with multiple sub-sectors such as chemical fibers, chemical products, chemical raw materials, and petrochemicals showing significant gains, leading to several chemical-themed ETFs rising over 2% [2][4] - The chemical ETF performance included notable increases: Chemical ETF (159870.SZ) rose by 2.64%, Chemical ETF Guotai (516220.SH) by 2.49%, and Chemical ETF Tianhong (159133.SZ) by 2.47% [3] - Analysts from Zhongyuan Securities noted a significant recovery in chemical prices in January, with liquid chlorine, acetonitrile, and butadiene performing well, suggesting that supply constraints in the chemical industry may strengthen in the future [3] Group 2: New Energy and Battery Sector - The new energy and battery sectors saw strong performance, with several related ETFs actively rising, including the Science and Innovation New Energy ETF and Battery ETF Jiashi, both nearing a 2% increase [4][5] - The Science and Innovation New Energy ETF (588830.SH) increased by 1.99%, while the Battery ETF Jiashi (562880.SH) rose by 1.96% [5] Group 3: ETF Market Trends - The ETF market has seen significant inflows, particularly in technology-themed ETFs, with the top ten products by net inflow mostly being technology-related [8] - The Huatai-PB Hang Seng Technology ETF recorded a net inflow of over 3.1 billion yuan, while other technology ETFs also saw substantial inflows exceeding 2 billion yuan [9] Group 4: A500 Index and Investment Value - The A500 index, represented by the A500 ETF (563800), has shown significant investment value due to its balanced industry distribution and focus on leading companies, making it attractive for long-term investment [10] - Analysts from GF Fund highlighted the index's advantages, including its ability to effectively capture growth opportunities while mitigating risks associated with single industries [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Simplify issued a China Commodity ETF, which mainly invests in futures listed on Chinese commodity exchanges, using a quantitative long - short model for variety selection [1][4]. - In the past week, US equity products had an inflow of over $30 billion, while silver ETFs had an outflow of over $2 billion, and gold ETFs had a relatively stable inflow [1][8]. - Since the beginning of this year, in addition to the precious metals sector, US industrial ETFs have seen significant gains, especially aerospace and defense ETFs, with some products rising nearly 18% [1][10]. - In December 2025, the total non - money mutual funds in the US decreased by $0.09 trillion compared to November. From January 14th to 21st, the outflow of domestic equity funds narrowed, international equity products had an outflow, and bond products had an increased inflow [1][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 US ETF Innovation Products: Simplify Issues China Commodity ETF - Last week, there were 15 new ETFs issued in the US, including Simplify's China Commodity ETF, which invests in Chinese commodity exchange futures and uses a quantitative model for variety selection [1][4]. - First Eagle issued two active US equity ETFs, T. Rowe Price issued an innovation ETF, Harrison Street issued an infrastructure active ETF, and TrueShares issued a stock hedge ETF [5]. 3.2 US ETF Dynamics 3.2.1 US ETF Funds: Silver ETFs Lead Outflows - In the past week, US equity products had an inflow of over $30 billion, with significant inflows into Nasdaq ETFs and emerging market ETFs. Commodity and alternative products had a slight outflow after increased volatility, and silver ETFs had an outflow of over $2 billion [1][8]. - Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF's two - week inflow was close to zero, Nasdaq ETFs had the largest two - week inflow, and gold ETFs had a relatively stable inflow last week [9]. 3.2.2 US ETF Performance: Aerospace and Defense ETFs Show Significant Gains - Since the beginning of this year, in addition to the precious metals sector, US industrial ETFs have had significant gains. State Street's industrial ETF rose nearly 7%, and aerospace and defense ETFs generally rose over 10%, with Global X's product rising nearly 18% [10][11]. 3.3 Recent Capital Flows of US Ordinary Mutual Funds - In December 2025, the total non - money mutual funds in the US were $23.64 trillion, a decrease of $0.09 trillion from November. The S&P 500 declined by 0.05% in December, and the scale of domestic equity products decreased by 1.03% [14]. - From January 14th to 21st, the outflow of domestic equity funds further narrowed to $1.11 billion, international equity products had an outflow of $2.69 billion, and bond products had an inflow that expanded to $8.47 billion [14].

2026 年 02 月 03 日 Simplify 发行中国商品 ETF，白银 ETF 流出靠前 ——海外创新产品周报 20260202 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 ETP 研 究 - ⚫ 美国 ETF 创新产品：Simplify 发行中国商品 ETF。上周美国共 15 只新发产品，Simplify 发行中国商品 ETF，主要投资于在中国商品交易所上市的期货品种，产品主要通过 Altis Partners 基于估值、动量的量化多空模型进行品种选择，覆盖能源、谷物、工业投入品、 金属等品种。 ⚫ 美国 ETF 资金流向：白银 ETF 流出靠前。过去一周 ...

Group 1 - The report outlines the grid trading strategy as a method of profiting from price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [4][12] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include being exchange-traded, having stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being identified as appropriate candidates [4][12] - The report highlights two key ETFs for grid trading: the Financial Technology ETF (159851.SZ) and the Medical ETF (512170.SH), emphasizing their potential benefits from market trends and innovations [4][13][16] Group 2 - The Financial Technology ETF is positioned to benefit from capital market reforms and the digital transformation of finance, with advancements in AI and blockchain driving efficiency and innovation in the sector [4][13] - The Medical ETF is catalyzed by the recent Nipah virus outbreak in India, which serves as a short-term driver, while the long-term growth is supported by the acceleration of innovative drug exports from China, showcasing the country's significant presence in the global pharmaceutical market [5][16] - The report suggests that investors can enhance returns by diversifying their grid trading strategies across different ETFs, combining various types and investment scopes to optimize risk management and capital utilization [16][19]

Group 1 - The core concept of ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is that it is a fund traded on exchanges, representing a basket of stocks, similar to buying and selling individual stocks [1] - The ETF market in China has grown rapidly since its inception in 2004, with projections indicating that by the end of 2025, the market size will exceed 60 trillion, experiencing significant growth milestones at 40 trillion, 50 trillion, and 60 trillion within a single year [1] - The potential bottleneck for ETF growth may occur when the market approaches 100 trillion, suggesting a possible slowdown in growth rate [1] Group 2 - There is a wide variety of ETF types available in the market, including broad-based ETFs like CSI 300 ETF and industry-specific ETFs such as securities ETF, communication ETF, and semiconductor equipment ETF [2] - Non-stock ETFs are also present, including gold ETFs, bond ETFs, and currency ETFs, as well as those that invest in overseas assets like Hong Kong technology ETFs and NASDAQ ETFs [2] - The ETF market enhances global investment opportunities, allowing for diversified asset allocation and potentially increasing investment success rates compared to investing in individual stocks [3]

Core Insights - The cross-border ETF market has reached a historic milestone, with the total scale surpassing 1 trillion yuan for the first time [1] - The strong performance of global risk assets, driven by expectations of liquidity easing, has attracted more investors to participate in global markets through cross-border ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Overview - There are currently 26 cross-border ETFs with a scale exceeding 10 billion yuan, up from 11 such ETFs at the beginning of 2025 [2] - Hong Kong stocks dominate the cross-border ETF market in terms of both product quantity and management scale, with most large-scale products focused on themes like the Hang Seng Technology Index and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] Group 2: Future Trends - Future developments in cross-border ETFs are expected to focus on regional expansion, thematic deepening, and strategic innovation, targeting emerging markets like Brazil, India, and Southeast Asia [3] - Thematic investments may include sectors such as global semiconductors, AI, and new energy, filling gaps in single market coverage [3] Group 3: Investment Sentiment - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed as a "bridgehead" for foreign investment in Chinese assets, with a strong correlation to overseas liquidity [4] - The anticipated new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September 2025 is expected to support liquidity in the Hong Kong market, particularly in the technology sector [4] Group 4: ETF Characteristics - The Hang Seng Technology Index is noted for its high concentration, with the top five stocks accounting for 60.51% of the index, enhancing its ability to capture industry gains [5] - The index has been refined to exclude non-TMT stocks, increasing its purity and resonance within the technology sector [5] Group 5: Macro and Industry Cycles - Domestic macroeconomic policies are expected to provide a stabilizing effect, while U.S. monetary policy signals a nearing interest rate cut cycle, creating upward potential for valuations [6] - The technology sector, particularly in AI and robotics, is experiencing breakthroughs that may lead to a revaluation of Chinese tech assets [6]