Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Domestic inventory increase restricts the price increase of lead [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 17,505 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic disk of lead was 2,045 dollars/ton, up 0.42% [1]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 31,610 lots, an increase of 4,404 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 10,307 lots, an increase of 3,259 lots [1]. - **Open Interests**: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 58,725 lots, a decrease of 1,093 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 151,524 lots, a decrease of 1,470 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -8.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 24.5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 23,195 tons, an increase of 1,292 tons; the LME lead inventory was 202,200 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [1]. - **Prices of Related Products**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 17,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profits and Losses**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -459.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 98.07 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three - contract was -286.68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.93 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was 299 yuan/ton, an increase of 77 yuan/ton [1]. News - The State Council General Office issued 13 measures to further promote private investment, including expanding access, removing bottlenecks, and strengthening safeguards [1]. - The US government is expected to end the shutdown, and the S&P and Nasdaq, two major US stock indices, posted their largest gains in five months [1]. Lead Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic recovery has many setbacks, with slow balance - sheet repair in the real economy. Super - conventional monetary and fiscal policies to manage inflation expectations may promote balance - sheet repair [29]. - In the bond market, credit spread compression is in the second half, and the year - end market may shift to medium - and long - term credit bonds. Credit bonds should focus on structural opportunities [29]. - In the bond market's oscillations, it's necessary to balance credit bond coupons and individual bond liquidity, and pay attention to the possibility of further overall easing [29]. - After the slowdown of gold price increase and the weakening of low - base and fiscal subsidy factors, core inflation may gradually decline, and the low - inflation pattern in China may continue. Monetary policy may push down nominal interest rates, and the domestic bond market is expected to perform well [30]. - The price of goods is bottoming out and recovering, which is positive for the stock market in the long - term, but the impact on the bond market needs further observation [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In Q3 2025, GDP growth was 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, down from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up [1]. - In September 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.5%, 7.2%, and 8.4% respectively. The new RMB loans in September were 1290 billion yuan [1]. - In October 2025, CPI was 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year. The year - on - year growth rate of exports was - 1.1%, and that of imports was 1.0% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US suspended the 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding and other industries for one year. China suspended relevant fees and anti - countermeasures and adjusted the export management of precursor chemicals [2]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange waived trading fees for certain international board contracts from November 11, 2025, to the end of 2026 [2]. - On November 10, 2025, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 31 had negative basis [2]. - The CSRC approved the registration of platinum and palladium futures and options, which will increase the number of market varieties to 164 [3]. - After a 40 - day government shutdown, the US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, and the government shutdown may end this weekend [3]. - Fed's Daly believes that inflation in commodity prices is under control, and the current policy is in a good state [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On November 10, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose by 430 yuan to 80,800 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium hydroxide rose by 130 yuan to 75,700 yuan/ton [4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption was 682,730 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95%. Gold ETFs increased their positions by 79,015 tons, a year - on - year increase of 164.03% [5]. - Ganfeng Lithium's project in Argentina made key progress, with proven + controlled lithium resources of about 15.07 million tons of LCE [5]. - After Trump supported the government shutdown agreement, aluminum and copper prices rose. Chile's copper production in September decreased by 7.2% year - on - year [6][7]. - J.P. Morgan Private Bank believes that gold prices may exceed $5000 per ounce next year, driven by central bank purchases in emerging economies [7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Multiple provinces and cities issued pollution prevention plans for the autumn and winter, involving steel production regulation [9]. - Affected by factors such as the continuous decline of steel enterprises' purchase prices of molybdenum iron, the prices of molybdenum products decreased, but market trading volume increased [10]. - In late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a 9.8% decrease from the previous month [11]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Domestic refined oil prices were raised for the seventh time this year, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively [12]. - Two departments issued a guidance on promoting new energy consumption and regulation, aiming to build a new - energy consumption and regulation system by 2030 and 2035 [12]. - From November 8 - 10, 2025, Sinopec's Tianjin LNG receiving terminal unloaded about 160,000 tons of LNG, ensuring heating supply in North China [13]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In Shanxi, autumn grain harvesting is almost finished, and wheat sowing is progressing. As of November 7, over 70% of the wheat has been sown [14]. - The market is stable macro - economically, and the resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US enterprises has improved the export prospects of US soybeans, but future imports are still uncertain [14]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 10, 2025, the central bank conducted 119.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 41.6 billion yuan [15]. 3.3.2 Important News - The US suspended the 301 investigation on China for one year, and China made corresponding adjustments [16]. - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown, which still needs House approval [17]. - The State Council issued measures to promote private investment, and ten departments released a plan to promote logistics data sharing [17]. - The 8th China International Import Expo closed with a record - high intended transaction volume of $83.49 billion, a 4.4% increase from the previous session [18]. - Central enterprises increased investment in key areas in the first three quarters, with fixed - asset investment exceeding 3 trillion yuan, a growth of over 3% [18]. - The Ministry of Finance will continue to issue local government debt quotas in advance, and many places have started project reserve work for 2026 [18]. - In October 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, while the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger cars increased by 18.5% [18]. - In Shenzhen, the number of second - hand housing transactions has remained above 5000 for 8 consecutive months [19]. - The Ministry of Finance will issue up to 47.71 billion yuan of electronic savings bonds from November 10 - 19, 2025 [19]. - Hong Kong plans to issue multi - currency digital bonds for the third time [19]. - Some small and medium - sized banks have adjusted long - term deposit products due to the downward trend of net interest margins [20]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that Trump's proposed $2000 tariff dividend could be achieved through tax cuts [20]. - Japan's new government asked the central bank to postpone interest rate hikes, but the central bank may raise rates in December [20]. - There are bond - related events such as self - discipline punishments, full redemptions, and senior management investigations [21][22]. - Some overseas companies received credit rating confirmations or new ratings [22]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market strengthened with long - term bonds performing better. Bond futures mostly rose, and the money market tightened [23]. - In the exchange bond market, Vanke's bonds generally fell, while some other bonds rose [23]. - The convertible bond index rose, and the money market interest rates mostly went up [24]. - Bond issuance and trading data showed different trends, and overseas bond yields also changed [26]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 50 basis points at the 16:30 close, and the central parity rate was depreciated by 20 basis points [27]. - The US dollar index rose 0.07%, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that super - conventional policies may promote balance - sheet repair in the real economy [29]. - Guosheng Fixed - Income expects the bond market to decline further from November - December, and credit bonds should focus on structural opportunities [29]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income emphasizes balancing credit bond coupons and individual bond liquidity [29]. - CICC Fixed - Income expects core inflation to gradually weaken, and is optimistic about the domestic bond market [30]. - CITIC Securities is optimistic about the central bank's future bond - buying scale [30]. - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that prices are bottoming out, which is positive for stocks and needs further observation for bonds [31]. 3.4 Stock Market News - The Asset Management Association of China solicited opinions on the management guidelines for the thematic investment styles of public funds [33]. - On Monday, the A - share market showed a divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.92% [33]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.55%, and southbound funds' cumulative net purchases exceeded HK$5 trillion [34]. - The China Securities Index Company will release two new indices on November 11, 2025 [34].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Several Measures to Further Promote the Development of Private Investment," which includes 13 key support measures aimed at expanding market access, promoting fair competition, strengthening resource support, and optimizing investment and financing services for private enterprises [1][5]. Group 1: Expansion of Market Access - The measures aim to broaden the investment scope for private capital, including support for private enterprises to invest in major projects such as railways and nuclear power, as well as new urban infrastructure projects and emerging sectors like low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace [5][6]. - Special feasibility studies are required for private capital participation in projects needing national approval, ensuring that private investment can be effectively integrated into traditionally state-dominated sectors [6][7]. Group 2: Removal of Hidden Barriers - The measures focus on eliminating unreasonable entry restrictions for service industry operators and prohibiting the imposition of additional conditions on private enterprises in bidding processes [8][9]. - There is a commitment to protect the legal rights of private enterprises in network infrastructure operations, ensuring fair competition and reducing transaction costs for private firms [8][9]. Group 3: Increased Policy Support - A series of initiatives are outlined to support private enterprises, including leading national major technology research tasks, increasing government procurement support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and facilitating the construction of major pilot platforms [11][12]. - The measures specify that for engineering procurement projects exceeding 4 million yuan, at least 40% of the budget should be reserved for SMEs, with encouragement for local governments to increase this proportion [12][13]. - The government plans to allocate 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools to support important industry projects, with a significant portion directed towards private investment [13].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has issued measures to further promote private investment, focusing on breaking barriers and lowering thresholds for private capital entry into various sectors [5] Group 1: Policy Measures - The document outlines 13 policy measures aimed at addressing the pain points of private investment [1] - The government has opened up sectors that were previously difficult for private enterprises to enter, such as railways, nuclear power, hydropower, and oil and gas pipelines, allowing private capital to hold at least 10% in qualifying projects [8] Group 2: Opportunities for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - For SMEs, the government procurement policy reserves a portion of projects for them, mandating that at least 40% of the budget for engineering procurement projects over 4 million yuan must be allocated to SMEs [11] - This allows smaller companies to compete for government contracts without having to compete directly with larger enterprises [11] Group 3: Investment in Emerging Technologies - The measures also encourage investment in emerging technology sectors, such as drone logistics and commercial space, with optimized entry policies for satellite communication and launch approvals [14]

Core Points - The State Council has issued measures to stimulate private investment and promote its development, outlining 13 targeted policy initiatives [1][2] Group 1: Expansion of Access - Encouragement for private capital participation in key sectors like railways and nuclear power, with specified shareholding requirements [1] - Support for private investment in new urban infrastructure projects with profit potential [1] - Guidance for orderly participation of private capital in low-altitude economy and commercial space sectors [1] - Removal of unreasonable entry restrictions for service industry operators [1] - Revision of the list of concession projects to support private enterprise participation [1] - Elimination of unreasonable requirements for private enterprises in bidding processes [1] - Increased government procurement support for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 2: Addressing Bottlenecks - Protection of private enterprises' legal rights in electricity grid operations, oil and gas pipeline usage, and transportation resource allocation [2] - Encouragement for private enterprises to establish major pilot platforms with strong industry influence [2] - Support for state-owned enterprises, universities, and research institutions to provide market-oriented pilot services to private enterprises [2] - Development of comprehensive digital empowerment platforms by leading private enterprises and third-party service providers [2] - Implementation of a digital empowerment initiative for more private small and medium-sized enterprises [2] Group 3: Strengthening Support - Increased central budget investment and new policy financial tools for qualifying private investment projects [2] - Financial institutions to set annual service goals for private enterprises to meet their reasonable credit needs [2] - Continuation of "green channel" policies for technology-driven enterprises in listing financing and mergers [2] - Support for qualifying private investment projects to issue Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in infrastructure [2] - Emphasis on the need for local governments and relevant departments to enhance services, guidance, and management for private investment [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of private investment as a crucial support for stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and promoting employment, with the release of 13 targeted policy measures to invigorate private investment [1][2] - The measures encourage private capital participation in key sectors such as railways and nuclear power, and aim to remove unreasonable restrictions on service industry access, thereby broadening the space for private investment [2][3] - The policies focus on optimizing the business environment and boosting development confidence, including increased support for eligible private investment projects through central budget investments and new policy financial tools [2][3] Group 2 - The measures are designed to address the concerns of private enterprises by expanding access, resolving bottlenecks, and strengthening guarantees, effectively creating a "policy combination" to stimulate the endogenous motivation of private investment [3] - It is highlighted that the further stimulation of private investment will continuously release domestic demand potential, providing stronger momentum for high-quality economic development [3]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 2.83% at $4123.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.70% at $50.41 per ounce [5] - U.S. oil and Brent crude oil main contracts both rose 0.5%, at $60.05 and $63.95 per barrel respectively [6] - London base metals all rose, with LME copper up 1.47%, aluminum up 1.14%, tin up 1.00%, zinc up 0.95%, lead up 0.46%, and nickel up 0.27% [6] - As of the close on October 10 at 23:00, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with soda ash up nearly 2%, caustic soda and pulp up over 1%, and some falling, like rapeseed meal and glass down nearly 1% [6] 2. Important News Macro News - The State Council issued measures to support private investment, increasing support for eligible projects [9] - Fed's Daly said the U.S. economy may face weak demand, and tariff - related inflation is under control [9] - In October, new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales reached 1.621 million, up 18.5% year - on - year and 8.5% month - on - month, with cumulative sales from January to October at 12.058 million, up 29.9% [9] - China and the U.S. suspended relevant 301 investigation measures for one year starting from November 10, 2025 [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of November 10, 2025, Jiangsu's pure benzene port inventory was 113,000 tons, down 6.61% from the previous period and up 7.62% year - on - year [12] - As of November 10, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.7062 million tons, down 0.47% from last Thursday [14] - Two Indian state - owned refineries bought 5 million barrels of crude oil from the spot market [14] - In September, Thailand's natural rubber production was 451,500 tons, down 5.45% from August and 1.78% year - on - year [14] - From November 10 at 24:00, domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices were raised by 125 and 120 yuan per ton respectively [15] Metal Futures - In October 2025, the overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was 64.97%, down 1.05 percentage points month - on - month and 7.76 points year - on - year [17] - SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 159,600 tons, with a slight increase [18] - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold ETFs added 79.015 tons, up 164.03% year - on - year, while gold consumption was 682.73 tons, down 7.95% [18] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange will waive trading fees for certain international board contracts from November 11, 2025, to the end of 2026 [19] Black - Series Futures - From November 3 to 9, 2025, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 2.7693 million tons, down 544,800 tons from the previous period [21] - In October 2025, Mongolia's coal exports were 657,990 tons, down 26.52% month - on - month and 2.07% year - on - year [22] Agricultural Product Futures - As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils was 2.2047 million tons, down 5.16% from last week and up 8.52% year - on - year [24] - In the 2024 - 2025 season, China's soybean imports were 109.37 million tons, and exports were 80,000 tons [25] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% (AmSpec) and 12.28% (ITS) compared to the same period last month [27][28] - In October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased 4.44% month - on - month, and production increased 11.02% [29] - From November 3 - 9, the average purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.21 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous week [30] 3. Financial Markets Finance - The Asset Management Association of China solicited opinions on guidelines for public fund thematic investment style management [33] - On Monday, A - shares showed a divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.53%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.18%, and ChiNext Index down 0.92%, and the trading volume was 2.19 trillion yuan [33] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.55%, with southbound funds net buying HK$6654 million, and the cumulative net buying exceeded HK$5 trillion [33] - China Securities Index Company will release two new indices on November 11 [34] - Some people in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou were notified to pay additional taxes on overseas investment income [35] - TSMC's October revenue was NT$367.473 billion, up 16.9% year - on - year [36] Industry - Domestic refined oil prices were raised for the seventh time this year [38] - Market regulators issued compliance tips for the "Double 11" online promotion [38] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a joint document on new - energy power systems [38] - In October, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, while new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales increased by 18.5% [38] - As of October, Shenzhen's second - hand housing transactions showed a stable trend [39] Overseas - The U.S. and Thailand reached a trade framework agreement [40] - Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the U.S. to reduce tariffs to 15% [41] - Fed's Milan supported further interest - rate cuts [43] - San Francisco Fed President Daly said the U.S. economy may face demand decline [43] - U.S. container imports in October decreased by 7.5% year - on - year [43] - Japan's new government asked the central bank to postpone interest - rate hikes [43] - Japan plans to raise visa fees for foreign visitors in 2026 [44] International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks rose, with the Dow up 0.81%, S&P 500 up 1.54%, and Nasdaq up 2.27% [45] - European stocks rose, with the German DAX up 1.65%, French CAC40 up 1.32%, and UK FTSE 100 up 1.08% [47] - Goldman Sachs is bullish on Japanese and Indian stocks [47] - Vanguard increased its position in Tesla and Amazon in Q3 [47] Commodities - China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 7.95% year - on - year, while ETFs added 79.015 tons [48] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange will waive trading fees for certain contracts and adjust the minimum redemption unit of "Bosera Gold ETF" [48] - International precious metal futures rose, and crude oil futures also rose [48] - London base metals all rose [50] Bonds - The domestic bond market strengthened, with the 30 - year Treasury futures up 0.22% [51] - The Ministry of Finance will issue up to 47.71 billion yuan of electronic savings bonds [51] - Hong Kong plans to issue multi - currency digital bonds again [52] - U.S. Treasury yields rose [52] Foreign Exchange - On Monday, the on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed up 50 points at 7.1175 at 16:30 [54] - Three RMB exchange - rate indices reached new highs since April [54] - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.07% at the New York close [54] 4. Upcoming Events and Data Releases - Multiple economic data will be released on November 11, including Japan's September trade balance and UK's October unemployment rate [56] - There are also multiple events, such as central bank officials' speeches and industry forums [56]

2025年11月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 黄金：政府关门持续影响流动性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡反弹 | 2 | | 铜：风险情绪回升，价格上涨 | 4 | | 铅：国内库存增加，限制价格上涨 | 6 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 7 | | 镍：高库存累增与印尼风险博弈，低位震荡 | 9 | | 不锈钢：向上缺乏驱动，下方难言广阔 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 11 日 黄金：政府关门持续影响流动性 白银：震荡反弹 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2512 | 935.98 | 1.6 ...

Group 1 - The State Council issued 13 policy measures to promote the high-quality development of private investment, focusing on expanding market access, promoting fair competition, integrating digital and physical sectors, and optimizing investment and financing support [1] - A new measure encourages private capital participation in the construction and operation of new urban infrastructure projects in smaller cities with profit potential, marking the first time this has been proposed [1] Group 2 - Guangdong province has the highest number of business owners in China, with over 20 million registered entities by September 2025, accounting for one-tenth of the national total [2] - The private economy in Guangdong comprises over 90%, indicating an efficient, innovative, and internationalized business environment [2] - Guangdong's business environment is highly rated nationally, with policies aimed at optimizing regulations and financial support to enhance enterprise development and increase employment opportunities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council of China has issued measures to promote private investment, particularly emphasizing the orderly participation of private capital in the low-altitude economy infrastructure construction [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The document encourages private capital to participate in key sectors such as railways and nuclear power, specifying requirements for shareholding ratios [2]. - It aims to eliminate unreasonable restrictions on service industry access and revise the list of projects that support private enterprise participation in public-private partnerships [2]. - The government will enhance procurement support for small and medium-sized enterprises [2]. Group 2: Low-altitude Economy Focus - The measures specifically highlight the importance of private investment in the low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace sectors, aiming to remove institutional barriers for private capital involvement [1][2]. - The document states that private investment projects will be treated equally in the approval processes for commercial space frequency licenses and launch approvals [1].