Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent may challenge $85 per barrel in the third quarter, but faces significant downward pressure in the medium to long term, potentially testing $50 per barrel within the year [6]. - In the short - term, due to uncertain Middle - East geopolitical situation, risk premium can be speculated or reversed. Fundamentally, OPEC+ production increase is lower than expected, Iranian supply is shrinking, inventory levels are low, and US shale oil supply growth is slowing, which may drive oil prices up. However, if OPEC+ effectively implements production increases, the market will face greater oversupply pressure in the medium to long term, and there may be deeper price drops within the year due to trade - war uncertainties [6]. - The recommended strategies are to hold long - position single - side orders and take profits as appropriate, and to clear long - spread positions and take profits [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - US long - term Treasury yields fluctuate significantly, and the gold - oil ratio drops from a high level [13]. - Overseas inflation continues to decline, and Sino - US trade relations ease [17]. - The RMB exchange rate strengthens, and social financing recovers [18]. 2. Supply - **OPEC+ Core Members**: Al - Shaheen crude in Qatar has a soaring premium, indicating supply tightness; Iraq is a key country for production - cut compensation; Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in the UAE reduces Murban crude allocation; Saudi Arabia is expected to be the main driver of OPEC+ production increase, but other members' compensation cuts slow down the overall pace; Russia's oil revenue may be alleviated by rising oil prices [7]. - **Non - OPEC+ and Other Regions**: The US EIA predicts that 2025 crude oil production will reach a peak and decline in 2026. Drilling activities are decreasing, and the number of active rigs is at a low level. Iran's oil supply is at risk of interruption due to conflicts, and OPEC+ plans to gradually lift production cuts [8]. 3. Demand - Asian demand: China's crude oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz are significant. If Iranian supply is interrupted, refiners may turn to other sources. India's oil demand is growing, and Asian countries' demand for Saudi crude is affected by price [9]. - American demand: The EIA predicts an increase in US crude oil demand in 2026, and US refineries are increasing jet - fuel production [9]. - European demand: European refineries increase crude oil processing due to strong summer demand for transportation fuels, but the cost of importing Atlantic - basin crude has risen [9]. 4. Inventory - US inventory: Commercial inventory declines, and Cushing inventory stabilizes at a level significantly lower than the historical average [62]. - European inventory: Crude oil inventory rebounds, while diesel and gasoline inventories decline [66]. - Domestic inventory: China's refined - oil profit margin recovers [69]. 5. Price and Spread - North American basis: It rebounds slightly [73]. - Calendar spread: It rebounds [74]. - SC performance: It is weaker than the overseas market, with a declining calendar spread and low valuation [75]. - Net long - position: It stabilizes [77].

Report Core View - On June 19 (Thursday), the WTI July crude oil spot contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was closed due to the Juneteenth holiday. The Brent August crude oil spot contract on the Intercontinental Exchange closed up $2.15 per barrel to $78.85 per barrel, a gain of 2.80% [2] - A source said that US President Trump told his senior aides that he had approved an attack plan on Iran but would not issue a final order for the time being to see if Iran would abandon its nuclear program. The White House said Trump would decide whether to attack Iran within two weeks [3] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report showed that for the week ending June 13, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. US crude oil inventories fell by 11.5 million barrels, the largest decline since the week ending June 28, 2024, compared with a market expectation of a 1.8 million - barrel decrease. US crude oil inventories were 420.9 million barrels, the lowest level since January [4] - In the short - term, the market will still trade on Middle East geopolitical tensions, and oil prices will hover at high levels. Fundamentally, the peak summer driving season is approaching, refinery operating rates in major oil - consuming countries have recovered from maintenance, the China - US economic and trade negotiations in London have made positive progress, the macro - environment is currently loose, OPEC+ has not effectively increased production, and US shale oil production has declined for seven consecutive weeks. In the long - term, due to the increasing supply trend and demand being restricted by the sluggish economic recovery outlook and the substitution of new energy, oil prices will decline from high levels [5]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 20 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

分析师们正努力预测以色列和伊朗不断升级的冲突可能对油价产生的影响。 继上周五以色列对伊朗的军事和核基础设施发动突然袭击后，这两个地区宿敌之间已经展开了五天的螺 旋式升级战。 美国总统特朗普周二要求德黑兰"无条件投降"，并警告华盛顿的耐心正在耗尽。作为回应，伊朗最高领 袖哈梅内伊威胁称，如果美国进行军事干预，将给其带来"无法弥补的损害"。 近几日大幅上涨的油价在周三继续走高。 投资管理公司Clean Energy Transition的创始人Per Lekander形容，在上周以色列袭击伊朗之前，鉴于欧 佩克（OPEC）和非欧佩克产油国供应增长充足而需求疲软，石油市场的状况很"糟糕"。 "我越来越相信，我们正走向像2014年或2020年那样，即油价跌至30-50美元的低价，以压低资本支出并 开启新周期。事实上，当前的冲突使得冲突结束后出现这种结果的可能性更大，因为生产商现在正尽可 能多地生产和进行套期保值，"Lekander在一份报告中说。 能源市场正在权衡美国直接卷入冲突的可能性，以及出现重大供应中断的潜力——特别是最坏的情况， 例如伊朗封锁连接波斯湾与阿曼湾的、具有高度战略意义的霍尔木兹海峡。 石油经纪商P ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

能源化工丨日报 2025 年 06 月 18 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017388 中东局势持续紧张，油价高位盘旋 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格上涨 6 月 17 日（周二），纽约商品期货交易所 WTI 7 月原油即期合约 收盘上涨 3.07 美元/桶，至 74.84 美元/桶，涨幅 4.28%。洲际交易所 布伦特 8 月原油即期合约收盘上涨 3.22 美元/桶，至 76.45 美元/桶， 涨幅 4.40%。 二、OPEC+增产不及预期 中东地缘局势紧张。美国总统特朗普表示，从未以任何方式、任 何形式与伊朗就"和平会谈"联系。以色列国防部长卡茨称，以军已 摧毁了伊朗纳坦兹核设施的中心区域，并计划摧毁伊朗核计划的所有 基础设施。以方将继续针对伊朗军事领导人、核计划和导弹系统发动 袭击。 四、后市展望 短期内市场仍将交易中东地缘局势，油价高位盘旋。从基本面来 看，夏季驾车旅行旺季临近，主要石油消费大国炼厂开工率已从检修 中恢复，在伦敦结束的中美经贸谈判取得积极进展，宏观环境目前亦 较为宽松，且 OPEC ...

美联储政策被政治化，降息靴子何时落地？中东局势升级，油价涨势能持续吗？点击查看详细解读！ 相关链接 美联储分歧大，降息概率几何？ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Brent has a chance to challenge $85 per barrel in the third quarter (an upward revision of $5 per barrel from last week), but in the medium to long term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices, and Brent may test $50 per barrel within the year [6]. - In the short - term, due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the risk premium can be freely hyped. Fundamentally, OPEC+'s month - on - month production increase is lower than market expectations, and there are still positive factors such as a significant contraction in Iranian crude oil supply under US sanctions, low absolute inventory levels in major regions excluding floating storage, and a slowdown in the growth of US shale oil supply. Coupled with the positive sentiment from the China - US presidential call, oil prices may continue to rebound [6]. - If OPEC+ effectively implements production increases, the medium - to - long - term oversupply pressure in the crude oil market will increase. Combined with the uncertainty of the trade war, there may be a deeper decline within the year [6]. - The strategy is to hold long - only positions and take profits as appropriate, and also take profits on positive spreads as appropriate [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio drops from a high level [12]. - Overseas inflation continues to decline, and China - US "trade" relations ease [18]. - The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing rebounds [19]. 3.2 Supply - **Country - specific supply situations**: - In Venezuela, due to intensified US sanctions, PDVSA's sour crude production is difficult to maintain. Chevron's export capacity is terminated, and there is an oversupply situation [7]. - Kazakhstan's production in May exceeded the target, mainly due to the increased production capacity of the Tengiz oil field led by Chevron and the failure of the government's negotiation on production cuts with operators [7]. - Iraq is a key country for compensatory production cuts. If the Israel - Iran conflict escalates, it may limit Iraq's crude oil exports to the Asia - Pacific market [7]. - The UAE's Adnoc reduces Murban crude oil export forecasts, which has affected its premium compared to other Middle Eastern varieties [7]. - Saudi Arabia's production in May increased slightly but was still below the target. It is expected to be the main driving force for OPEC+ production increases in the coming months [7]. - Russia's actual available idle production capacity is limited due to sanctions, and it questioned accelerating production increases at the May OPEC+ meeting [7]. - The US EIA predicts that US crude oil production will reach a record high in 2025 but will decline in 2026. Drilling activities are decreasing, and capital expenditure by shale oil companies is being cut [8]. - Iran's May crude oil production reached the highest level since August 2018, but it faces the threat of supply interruption due to the Israel - Iran conflict [8]. - **OPEC+ production strategies**: - OPEC+ shifted to a market - share strategy in 2025, accelerating the lifting of the additional 2.2 million barrels per day production cut plan agreed at the end of 2023. The production target increase has accelerated from 137,000 barrels per day to 411,000 barrels per day [8]. - There are differences among OPEC+ members regarding production increases. Russia and Oman questioned the collective decision in May, but the decision was advanced [8]. - Most OPEC+ countries are approaching their effective production capacity, and differences in production capacity assessment are a future challenge [8]. 3.3 Demand - **Asia**: - China's crude oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to be around 0.8%, with a daily demand of 16.23 million barrels. Saudi Aramco's supply to China in July is slightly lower than in June, and state - owned refineries' demand for Saudi crude has increased while private refineries' demand has decreased [10]. - India's overall oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to be 170,000 barrels per day on average, contributing significantly to global demand growth. Its oil product consumption in May increased year - on - year and month - on - month [10]. - Japan, South Korea, and Indian refineries will receive their "usual quantities" of Saudi crude in July, and the demand is affected by prices [10]. - **America**: - The US's crude oil imports from Iran may have decreased significantly in May, but overall imports remain strong due to large - scale inventory replenishment. The refinery utilization rate in the US Gulf Coast region reached a high this year [10]. - **Europe**: - At least three European buyers will receive their "full contractual volumes" in July, but one has reduced demand due to price increases. Aramco has raised the July formula price, and European local crude has a price advantage [10]. - **Africa**: - The domestic demand of Nigeria has been fluctuating. The Dangote refinery is diversifying its crude oil sources and reducing its dependence on domestic grades. Some market participants expect European demand to rebound in May [10]. 3.4 Inventory - US commercial inventories are declining, and inventories in the Cushing area are stabilizing but are significantly lower than historical averages [61]. - Refining margins are oscillating strongly [63]. - European crude oil inventories are rebounding, while diesel and gasoline inventories are decreasing [65]. - Domestic refined oil margins are recovering [68]. 3.5 Price and Spreads - The North American basis has a slight rebound [72]. - The month - spread has rebounded [73]. - SC is weaker than the overseas market, the month - spread has declined, and the valuation is at a low level [74]. - The net long - position has stabilized [76].

以色列袭击伊朗，中东局势迅速升级，原油系期货合约反弹走高，未来油价上行空间还有多少？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

油气ETF紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天然气产业相关上 市公司的证券价格变化情况。 数据显示，截至2025年5月30日，国证石油天然气指数(399439)前十大权重股分别为中国石油(601857)、 中国石化(600028)、中国海油(600938)、广汇能源(600256)、杰瑞股份(002353)、新奥股份(600803)、招 商轮船(601872)、中远海能(600026)、海油工程(600583)、招商南油(601975)，前十大权重股合计占比 66.48%。 油气ETF(159697)，场外联接A：019827；联接C：019828；联接I：022861。 截至2025年6月13日收盘，国证石油天然气指数(399439)强势上涨2.47%，成分股潜能恒信(300191)上涨 10.97%，中曼石油(603619)、泰山石油(000554)10cm涨停，石化油服(600871)，和顺石油(603353)等个股 跟涨。油气ETF(159697)收涨2.60%， 实现3连涨。 受中东局势急剧升温影响，WTI原油期货大涨10%，报74.99美元/桶，创2月3日以来新高。 ...