Group 1 - Trump is considering announcing the next Federal Reserve Chair earlier than the traditional transition period to pressure current Chair Powell to accelerate interest rate cuts [1][2] - Potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair include former Fed Governor Warsh, NEC Director Hassett, current Fed Governor Waller, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [2][4] - Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve during a Senate hearing, stating that while rate cuts are possible, a cautious approach will be taken [2] Group 2 - Waller, a Fed Governor nominated by Trump, indicated support for a potential rate cut next month due to concerns over a weakening labor market [4] - Warsh has publicly criticized the Fed's handling of political pressures, urging the institution to maintain maturity and resilience [4]

美联储主席鲍威尔本周将赴国会山履职，此刻他正面临来自美联储内外的空前降息压力。根据日程安排， 鲍威尔将于周二上午向众议院金融服务委员会提交货币政策报告，履行半年一次的国会证词职责，周三还 将前往参议院银行委员会接受质询。 安联首席经济顾问Mohamed El-Erian周一指出，当前政治因素已开始渗透联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC） 的决策机制。此前美联储理事鲍曼在布拉格演讲中明确表示，若通胀数据持续符合预期，她可能支持下月 开启政策宽松；而上周五美联储理事沃勒亦发表类似言论，这与鲍威尔上周强调的"待关税影响明晰后再 采取耐心政策"的立场形成微妙分歧。值得注意的是，沃勒与鲍曼均为特朗普首个任期内任命，且两人均 被视作明年接替鲍威尔的潜在人选。 市场对政策转向的预期已显著升温。据芝加哥商品交易所（CMEGroup）美联储观察工具显示，交易员对7 月降息的定价概率已升至23%，而9月降息概率超82%。更具挑战性的是，鲍威尔在未来两天的国会听证中 需同时应对两党压力：共和党人可能就货币政策宽松滞后提出质疑，而自由派参议员沃伦等早已敦促其启 动降息，这种政治角力正考验着美联储传统上的政策独立性边界。 当美联储核心官员的 ...

根据《三分类通知》，特殊需要信托业务是指信托公司接受单一自然人委托，或者接受单一自然人及其 亲属共同委托，以满足和服务特定受益人的生活需求为主要信托目的，管理处分信托财产。 南方财经全媒体记者 林汉垚 北京报道 2023年3月，原中国银保监会发布《关于规范信托公司信托业务分类的通知》（以下简称《三分类通 知》），将信托业务根据信托目的、信托成立方式、信托财产管理内容，分为三大类共25个业务品种， 正式提出"特殊需要信托"的概念，将其列为财富管理服务信托七大业务品种之一。 近日，北京信托法学研究会任自力会长在特殊需要信托法治研讨会上指出，特殊需要信托制度是我国残 疾人社会保障制度和关爱服务体系中最短的短板、最需要补上来的短板，推动中国特殊需要信托制度的 构建和不断完善是落实党中央、国务院关于中国残疾人事业发展的战略部署的重大行动。 特殊需要信托成照护新希望 特殊人群主要包括未成年人、心智障碍者、生活不能自理的残障人员、失能失智老人等群体。 根据民政部相关数据，截至2024年11月，我国失能老年人约3500万，占全体老年人的11.6%。另外，据 测算，到2035年，我国失能老年人将达到4600万。 另外，根据中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will defend the decision to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time during congressional hearings this week, amidst ongoing pressure from former President Trump for rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Powell is expected to reiterate that the Federal Reserve is in a favorable position to wait for more economic data before considering any rate changes, emphasizing the need for caution [2][3]. - Economists predict that the core inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve may have only risen by 0.1% for the third consecutive month in May, marking the mildest inflation performance since 2020 [2][3]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the impact of tariffs and interest rate policy are highlighted, with two governors indicating potential support for a rate cut in July [2][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Conflict Impact - Powell is likely to face questions regarding the economic implications of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, especially after the U.S. engaged directly in the conflict [3]. - The price of WTI crude oil initially surged above $78 but later fell back to around $66, reflecting investor concerns about supply risks [3]. - Powell has indicated that while energy prices may rise during Middle Eastern turmoil, such fluctuations typically do not have lasting effects on inflation [3]. Group 3: Political Pressure and Independence - Republican lawmakers are expected to pressure Powell for clear reasoning behind the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, although not all Republicans will adopt a confrontational approach [5][6]. - Some Democratic lawmakers may support Powell, warning that the Federal Reserve's independence is under threat from Republican pressures [6]. - Powell is anticipated to maintain a calm demeanor during the hearings, emphasizing that Federal Open Market Committee decisions are based on careful, objective analysis [6]. Group 4: Banking Regulation Agenda - Observers will assess Powell's views on ongoing regulatory changes, as the White House pushes for a relaxation of regulations [7]. - The Federal Reserve is considering proposals to lower the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, a rule introduced in 2008 that requires banks to hold a certain amount of capital relative to their assets [7]. - Powell may also need to address a proposal from Senator Ted Cruz to prohibit the Federal Reserve from paying interest on bank reserves, which could impact the Fed's ability to control short-term interest rates [7].

特朗普认为当前没有通货膨胀的风险，因此美联储应降低利率。特朗普在上一次怒骂鲍威尔时表示，美 联储的关键借贷利率至少应降低2个百分点。 上周，美联储将联邦基金利率的目标区间保持在4.25%-4.5%不变，符合市场预期。在其声明中，美联储 承认经济活动仍以稳健速度扩张，失业率依然处于较低水平。与上个月相比，美联储对失业率的描述进 行了细微调整，但依然强调其低位状态。同时，美联储认为虽然经济前景的不确定性较之前有所缓解， 但仍需谨慎对待。 值得注意的是，美联储删除了5月声明中"失业率和通胀上升风险均已上升"的表述，转而强调"经济前景 不确定性有所降低但仍处于高位"，暗示短期内不会因单一风险贸然行动。缩表计划虽继续推进，但国 债赎回上限从250亿美元降至50亿美元，显示出对市场流动性的谨慎呵护。 鲍威尔料听证会上延续此前的表态，强调需更多经济数据支撑利率决策。一些共和党议员表示愿意理解 鲍威尔的"稳健策略"，例如宾夕法尼亚州众议员Dan Meuser就公开称赞鲍威尔"在现代最艰难环境中导 航有功"，也有议员可能效仿特朗普的激进立场，要求鲍威尔解释为何在就业强劲、通胀降温的背景下 依然不肯降息。 转自：新华财经 新华财 ...

美元霸权的"切尔诺贝利时刻"？——黄金大撤离与美联储的政治困境 历史学家或许会将2025年铭记为美元霸权崩塌的元年，以及黄金重回"货币之王"宝座的起点。这一年，政治对信任的摧毁，将人类重新推向对最原始硬通货 ——黄金的依赖。 这一切，都源于美国总统特朗普对美联储的持续施压，以及由此引发的全球黄金储备的"大撤离"。 2026年，现任美联储主席鲍威尔任期届满。此前，他或许从未料到自己会成为华盛顿政治角斗场中的一枚"人肉盾牌"。 特朗普在社交媒体上多次公开斥责 鲍威尔"动作迟缓"，并扬言在其任期结束后，将任命一位更为"听话"的美联储主席。此举赤裸裸地削弱了美联储的市场独立性，也对美元的信用造成了巨大 冲击。 德国和意大利，率先发出了将存放在美国的黄金运回本国的强烈呼声，这并非偶然。 这场围绕黄金的博弈，更像是一场精心编排的黑色喜剧。 美联储主席鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部坚称不会因总统压力而改变政策，然而，高盛的报告却一 针见血地指出：每当特朗普发出一条批评美联储的推文，市场对通胀的预期就会跳涨1个百分点。 德国和意大利，分别持有全球第二和第三大黄金储备，储量分别为3352吨和2452吨，这些黄金都存放于纽约联邦储备银 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus emphasizes the critical importance of central bank independence in maintaining economic stability and effective monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee highlights that a broad agreement exists on the necessity of central bank independence [1] - The independence of central banks is viewed as essential for ensuring that monetary policy is not influenced by political pressures [1] - Maintaining this independence is crucial for fostering trust in the financial system and promoting long-term economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses former President Trump's dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting Trump's desire to potentially replace Powell and the implications of such a move on monetary policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][3][11]. Group 1: Trump's Criticism of Powell - Trump has expressed that he would never reappoint Powell, criticizing him for slow interest rate hikes during the post-pandemic inflation period [3][4]. - Trump's main grievances stem from Powell's monetary policy decisions, which he believes have negatively impacted the economy and stock market [4][5]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - Trump's potential appointment as Fed Chair could allow him to implement aggressive monetary policies, such as zero interest rates and unlimited quantitative easing, to create a facade of economic prosperity [7][8]. - This move could undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, setting a precedent for future political interference in monetary policy [8][11]. Group 3: Personal Financial Interests - Trump's business empire, burdened with $2.3 billion in debt, would benefit from lower interest rates and a favorable monetary policy environment, directly impacting his financial interests [8][9]. - The potential for increased consumer spending due to a loose monetary policy would also positively affect Trump's businesses, including hotels and golf courses [9][11].

特朗普再怼"太迟先生"：我当联储更好# 最近，美国政坛又上演了一出"总统与央行主席"的舆论交锋。6月18日美联储利率决议前，美国总统特 朗普再次火力全开，将美联储主席鲍威尔称为"太迟先生"，甚至放话"我当美联储主席能做得更好"。这 场持续数月的"降息拉锯战"，究竟藏着哪些关键信息？ 一、特朗普的"炮轰时间表" 从4月的"又迟又错"，到5月的"蠢货""一窍不通"，再到6月的"愚蠢""政治化"，特朗普对鲍威尔的批评从 未停歇。他多次在社交媒体和公开场合强调："欧洲已降息10次，美国一次未动！"甚至提出"应降息1个 百分点"，认为这能大幅降低美国债务利率。更引人关注的是，他不止一次暗示"或许我该自己去美联 储"，自夸"能比这些人做得更好"。 这场"隔空互怼"已引发市场波动。美媒指出，政客常因选举压力追求短期经济繁荣，而央行更需着眼长 远。彭博社警告，特朗普的言论挑战了美联储独立性，可能加剧市场不安。5月的"股债汇三杀"、黄金 价格飙升，都与政策不确定性密切相关。专家分析，美联储正陷入两难：降息可能推高通胀，不降息则 经济增速或放缓，但"保持独立决策"是稳定市场信心的关键。 特朗普与鲍威尔的"降息之争"，本质是短期政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of China in reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, which has reached a 12-year low, and the implications of this move on U.S. monetary policy and the broader global financial landscape [1][6][20]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Monetary Policy - China sold $8.2 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, bringing its total holdings down to $757 billion, the lowest level in 12 years [6][20]. - The Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, despite pressure from President Trump, who expressed frustration over the decision [6][10]. - The market reacted negatively to China's bond sell-off, causing U.S. Treasury yields to rise and increasing volatility in the dollar index [6][20]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Central Bank Independence - Trump's aggressive stance towards Powell included public threats and insults, highlighting the tension between political pressures and central bank independence [3][10]. - Powell emphasized that monetary policy would not be influenced by short-term political considerations, reinforcing the independence of the Federal Reserve [10][14]. - The Federal Reserve Act protects the chairman from being dismissed due to policy disagreements, underscoring the importance of maintaining a professional approach to monetary policy [12][14]. Group 3: Global Financial Trends - A significant portion of global central banks, 43%, plan to continue purchasing gold, indicating a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar [16]. - Other countries, such as Japan and the UK, have adjusted their U.S. Treasury holdings, with Japan buying $3.7 billion and the UK purchasing $28.4 billion in April [18][20]. - The trend of reducing U.S. Treasury holdings reflects a broader shift in the global financial landscape, with countries diversifying their reserves to mitigate risks associated with U.S. debt [24][26]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts by China - China has reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings from $1.65 trillion in 2013 to $757 billion, indicating a strategic shift towards diversifying its investments [24][26]. - The country has simultaneously increased its gold reserves to 73.45 million ounces and is promoting the internationalization of the yuan, which is seen as a forward-looking strategy [24][26]. - The decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves from 73% to 58% reflects a significant and irreversible trend towards "de-dollarization" [26].