Core Viewpoint - The US stock market is currently experiencing a wave of optimism, but this has raised concerns among some analysts about potential risks associated with excessive bullish sentiment [1][3]. Market Sentiment - Investors are exhibiting their most optimistic sentiment in a year, with the ratio of bulls to bears rising to 4.27, surpassing the critical threshold of 4.00, which historically indicates overly optimistic market sentiment [1]. - The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment among retail investors has exceeded the historical average of 37.5% for the fifth time in the past seven weeks [1]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has surged 37% since early April, marking one of the largest increases since 1950 [1]. - The S&P 500 index has risen 16% year-to-date in 2025, and historical data suggests that if the index increases by at least 10% in the first ten months, it typically indicates strong performance for the remainder of the year [4]. Analyst Predictions - Ed Yardeni, a long-time bull on the market, has begun to question his previous predictions of a year-end rally due to the current overbought conditions and market sentiment [1][3]. - Yardeni predicts that the S&P 500 index could decline by as much as 5% from its peak by the end of December [1]. - Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors remains optimistic, suggesting that November will continue to show strong performance despite potential volatility [3]. Economic Indicators - The market is closely monitoring upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials regarding potential interest rate cuts, which could impact investor sentiment [6]. - Economic data releases, including factory activity and consumer confidence indicators from major companies like McDonald's and Uber, are expected to provide insights into the health of the economy [6]. - The S&P 500 companies are projected to achieve a profit growth of 13%, significantly higher than the previously anticipated 7% [6].

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 03 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 ——利率周报（2025.10.27-2025.11.2） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 回落明显，债市处于顺风期 报告核心观点：中美经贸谈判进展与美联储降息内外联动，叠加公募基金新规（征 求意见稿）出炉，多维度影响经济与市场。中美取消部分关税、暂停管制及解决 TikTok 问题，缓解出口压力，稳定外贸并刺激制造业投资，或支撑 Q4 经济。美联储 10 月 末降息 25BP 并将于 12 月结束缩表，或缓解全球流动性压力，可能收窄中美利差并 吸引外资回流，或为国内货币政策释放更大操作空间。公募基金新规推动业绩比较 基准规范管理，优化信息披露等机制，可能主要影响主动权益基金，或使机构提升 投研及风控能力，头部机构优势或持续凸显，中小机构产品或需差异化发展。 本周（10/27-11/2）市场概览： 其他要闻：中国人民 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed a cautious view on the U.S. economy and monetary policy, indicating that further easing is not guaranteed, leading to a cooling of market expectations for policy relaxation [1] - The U.S. dollar index showed strong performance, surpassing 99.80 and reaching a new high since August, reflecting a strong overall trend despite a short-term pullback after Powell's remarks [1] - The upcoming ISM manufacturing PMI data for October is anticipated to provide important insights into the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector and overall economy, with expectations of continued expansion but potentially slower growth [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY pair rose to its highest level since February, nearing 154.50, influenced by the Bank of Japan's policies and verbal interventions, before stabilizing slightly above 154.00 [2] - The GBP/USD pair declined over 1% last week, falling below 1.3100, indicating weakness, with the current trading around 1.3150 as investors await upcoming UK economic data [2] - Gold prices remained relatively stable but experienced a decline of over 2% last week, facing upward pressure due to the strong dollar and changing market sentiment, particularly in light of the cautious Fed policy [2]

11 月 3 日亚市尾盘，现货黄金呈现震荡回升态势，当前价格徘徊在 4016 美元 / 盎司左右，较日内盘中低点反弹幅度接近 54 美 元，避险资金的回流为金价提供了有力支撑。 不过，随着避险情绪升温，金价快速收复失地并再度向 4000 美元 / 盎司关口发起冲击。当前投资者普遍关注美国政府停摆的潜 在影响，若此次停摆持续时间延长，可能对美国经济运行产生连锁反应，进一步推动避险资金向黄金市场流动。 后续市场焦点将集中于美国经济数据表现。北京时间 11 月 3 日 23:00，美国 10 月 ISM 制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）将正式公 布，市场普遍预期该数值为 49.1。业内分析认为，这一数据的表现将直接影响美元短期走势，进而作用于黄金价格：若数据优 于预期，可能助力美元走强，对金价形成压制；若数据不及预期，美元或面临调整压力，为金价反弹提供更多动能。 值得注意的是，在美联储上周完成谨慎降息操作后，市场对后续货币政策走向的预期持续调整。芝加哥商品交易所集团的 "美联 储观察工具" 显示，当前市场预期美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 69%，较一周前 91.7% 的概率出现明显回落，这一预期 变化也 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔的一番"鹰派"表态，让原本喜庆的降息盛宴瞬间降温。 北京时间10月30日凌晨2点，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率从4.00%-4.25%下调至3.75%-4.00%，符合市场预期。 同时，美联储决定从12月1日起结束缩减资产负债表（缩表）的计划。 然而，投资者还来不及庆祝，美联储主席鲍威尔在随后召开的新闻发布会上就给市场泼了一盆冷水。他直言不讳地表示，12月降息"远非已成定局"，在政府 停摆导致经济数据缺失的情况下，美联储可能需要更加谨慎。 本次降息是美联储2025年内的第二次降息，也是继今年9月以来的连续第二次降息。 与往常不同的是，这次降息决定并未得到全体委员的一致支持。 美联储新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰出人意料地主张降息50个基点，而堪萨斯城联储主席杰弗里·施密德则倾向于维持利率不变。 两位官员方向截然相反的反对票，清晰揭示了美联储内部在政策方向上的严重分歧。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上解释说，本次降息仍是一种"预防性操作"，旨在为经济下行风险购买保险，而非意味着已确定进入降息通道。 他特别强调，在缺乏数据的情况下，可能有必要更加谨慎。 美联储在会后发布的政策声明中，罕见地将往常提到的"最 ...

智通财经APP获悉，DWS首席美国经济学家Christian Scherrmann指，一如市场预期，美联储在10月的 FOMC会议上将利率下调25个基点，并宣布于12月停止缩表，以平衡证券投资组合。唯一的意外是反对 票由一票增至两票，支持减息50个基点的Stephen Miran如期投下反对票，而Jeffrey Schmid则意外地强 硬，反对任何政策变动。投票结果进一步凸显美联储在货币政策上的分歧，这种分歧早已在最近的点阵 图分化及官员不统一的言论中初现端倪，而鹰派的反对声音则令分歧进一步加剧。 FOMC内部共识持续削弱，或与政府停摆导致通胀等关键经济数据缺失有关，这一点从声明中主要引用 过往数据可见一斑。尽管现有数据显示劳动市场与通胀未有明显改善，难以支持美联储的双重使命，但 两方面出现意外恶化的风险却在上升。此外，声明中的措辞微调显示，美联储似乎预期经济增长略为加 快，对就业有正面影响，但这种利好却难以抵销因政府停摆而对短期增长及招聘可能造成的负面影响。 在新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔坦言FOMC成员间存在分歧，并讨论了与双重使命相关的风险。他 提到，对于12月是否再减息有激烈讨论，但尚未作出决定，并 ...

币界网10月30日讯，美联储公布利率决议并如期降息25个基点，但美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布 会上发表的鹰派言论引发市场剧烈震荡。XBIT Wallet实时数据显示，比特币价格在鲍威尔讲话后迅速 跌破11万美元关口，最低触及109,945.75美元，24小时跌幅达4.16%，交易量飙升至660.54亿美元。这一 突如其来的市场动荡，让原本对年底行情充满憧憬的投资者措手不及，也让比特币永续合约市场陷入剧 烈波动之中。 鹰派转向：鲍威尔"远非板上钉钉"引发市场恐慌 美联储此次降息25个基点本在市场预期之内，但鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的表态却出人意料。当被问及12 月是否会继续降息时，鲍威尔明确表示："12月再次降息远未板上钉钉。"这一表态与市场此前90%的降 息预期形成鲜明反差，立即引发了加密货币市场的连锁反应。 币界网消息，鲍威尔在讲话中进一步强调，美联储内部对于如何推进货币政策存在"严重分歧"。他指 出，在过去两次政策会议上降息后，越来越多的官员希望采取观望态度。"现在有越来越多的人认为， 也许我们至少应该等待一个周期，"鲍威尔表示。这一表态意味着，美联储的降息周期可能比市场预期 的更加缓慢和谨慎。 市场的剧 ...

然而，许长泰特别指出，本次FOMC会议释放出更为鹰派的政策基调，这限制了未来宽松空间。基于当 前形势，他预计2026年上半年美联储或仅有一次降息机会。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京10月31日电摩通资产管理策略师许长泰称，尽管美联储于10月30日如期将联邦基金利率下 调25个基点，目标区间降至3.75%至4.00%，符合市场普遍预期，但当前美国联邦政府持续停摆正对货 币政策制定构成实质性干扰。 许长泰强调，由于政府停摆，包括非农就业报告在内的多项关键经济数据无法正常发布，致使美联储在 缺乏完整信息的情况下作出利率决策。"这一情况值得高度关注，"他表示。 他进一步分析称，若政府停摆不再造成进一步干扰，美联储将有望恢复接收就业与通胀数据。在此前提 下，若就业市场明显改善或通胀出现显著反弹，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）可能选择维持利率不 变。尽管如此，12月仍存在降息的可能性。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, and non-ferrous metals. It assesses market trends, fundamental factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the current market situation [20][23][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: On Thursday, the stock index fluctuated again. In the morning, the market was strong, but in the afternoon, it dived and then oscillated downward. Due to investors' profit - taking and concerns about the technology stocks, the short - term stock index will fluctuate again and wait for re - pricing after the quarterly reports [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips without chasing high prices; Arbitrage: IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; Options: Bull spread on dips [22]. Treasury Futures - **Investment Logic**: On Thursday, most treasury futures closed higher. The central bank's net injection of short - term liquidity eased the market's funds. The long - end may catch up in price, and the market should be cautious about chasing the TS contract [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Try to go long on the TL contract on dips; Arbitrage: Pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [24]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Investment Logic**: Trade relations are improving, which benefits US soybeans. However, the international soybean supply is abundant, and the domestic soybean meal supply has improved, with pressure on prices. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Slowly build short positions in far - month contracts; Arbitrage: Try M35 reverse arbitrage; Options: Sell strangle strategy [28]. Sugar - **Investment Logic**: Internationally, the global sugar production is increasing, and the Brazilian sugar production is expected to be high. The ethanol's support for sugar has weakened, and the international sugar price is bearish. Domestically, the increase in sugar production may be less than expected, and the suspension of some imports may support the price in the short term [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The international sugar price is bearish, and the domestic market may be slightly stronger in the short term. Consider shorting on rallies; Arbitrage: Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar; Options: Wait and see [30]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Investment Logic**: High - frequency data shows that the production and export growth of Malaysian palm oil in October have declined, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly. Domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil is gradually de - stocking. The oil market is in a bottom - grinding stage [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider going long on dips; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [34]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Investment Logic**: The US corn futures have declined, and the US corn production is at a high level. The supply of Northeast Chinese corn has increased, and the price is weak. The North China corn price has stabilized and rebounded. The 01 contract of corn is expected to fluctuate weakly [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on the 12 - contract of US corn on dips, go long on the 01 - contract of Chinese corn lightly, and try to go long on the 05 and 07 - contracts of Chinese corn in the long - term; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [36]. Live Pigs - **Investment Logic**: The overall supply pressure of live pigs still exists, although the scale of enterprise slaughter has decreased, and the number of secondary fattening has increased, which has a certain supporting effect on the price. The pig price is expected to be under pressure [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider building a small number of short positions; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell strangle strategy [38]. Peanuts - **Investment Logic**: Peanut prices have stabilized. The supply of imported peanuts has decreased, and the prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable. The oil mills have not purchased in large quantities. The 01 - contract of peanuts is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Try to go long on the 01 and 05 - contracts of peanuts lightly; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [42]. Eggs - **Investment Logic**: The number of laying hens is still at a high level, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to be weak. Recently, the increase in the number of culled chickens and downstream replenishment have led to a slight rebound in the spot price. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider closing out previous short positions and wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [47]. Apples - **Investment Logic**: The quality of new - season apples is poor, the excellent fruit rate is low, and the cost of making warehouse receipts is high. The market is worried about the short shelf - life of cold - stored apples. The expected low storage volume may support the price, but the upward space is limited [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider closing out previous long positions and wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [51]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Investment Logic**: The cotton purchase is at its peak, and the purchase price is stable with a slight increase. The demand has not changed much. The improvement in Sino - US relations may support the Zhengzhou cotton price, which is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [55]. Black Metals Steel - **Investment Logic**: The night - trading steel price fluctuated weakly. This week, the steel production recovery accelerated, and the demand continued to recover, with an accelerated inventory reduction. However, there are still pressures from high plate inventory, slow capital release in the fourth quarter, and the fading macro - influence [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain range - bound fluctuations; Arbitrage: Consider going long on the hot - rolled coil and short on the rebar spread; Options: Wait and see [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Logic**: The current macro - sentiment is positive, and the coking coal fundamentals are good, but the steel demand is uncertain, which restricts the upward space of raw materials. It is expected to fluctuate in the near future, and it is recommended to wait for dips to go long [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait for dips to go long; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [61]. Iron Ore - **Investment Logic**: The iron ore price fell at night. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weakening domestically. The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure at a high level [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Bearish at a high level; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [64]. Ferroalloys - **Investment Logic**: The market sentiment has cooled down. The supply and demand pressures of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese still exist. They can continue to be used as short - side configurations in the sector [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Continue as short - side configurations; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Investment Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors in the precious metals market. The market is expected to enter a high - level shock adjustment period in the short term [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver cautiously; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [71]. Copper - **Investment Logic**: Macro - factors are not favorable, and the supply side of copper mines has more disturbances. The supply is relatively tight, and the consumption is weak. The copper price has a short - term correction [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The short - term copper price corrects slightly, pay attention to support and resistance levels, and go long on dips in the long term; Arbitrage: Hold cross - market cash - and - carry arbitrage and consider cross - period cash - and - carry arbitrage after domestic inventory decline; Options: Wait and see [74]. Alumina - **Investment Logic**: The supply and demand of alumina are still in significant surplus, but there are expectations of production cuts. The price rebounds slightly at a low level, but there are still pressures on the rebound amplitude [77]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The price will fluctuate at a low level; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [77]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Investment Logic**: The macro - situation is uncertain, but the Sino - US economic and trade consensus is positive. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption is resilient. The aluminum price is expected to rise after the market sentiment stabilizes [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The aluminum price is expected to rise after the market sentiment stabilizes; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Investment Logic**: The macro - expectations are volatile. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the demand is resilient, and the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots will maintain a strong shock [85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The aluminum alloy price will rise with the aluminum price; Arbitrage: Consider long AD and short AL arbitrage; Options: Wait and see [85]. Zinc - **Investment Logic**: The domestic zinc concentrate market is short of supply, and some smelters may reduce production in November. The consumption is expected to weaken, but the export window is open, which can relieve the supply - surplus situation [90]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold profitable long positions and pay attention to export volume and new smelter production; Arbitrage: Consider buying SHFE and selling LME in advance according to export conditions; Options: Wait and see [90]. Lead - **Investment Logic**: Some lead - storage enterprises have reduced production due to high lead prices and high downstream inventory. The supply of recycled lead may increase, and the lead price may decline [94]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see, and consider shorting if the production of recycled lead increases; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [94]. Nickel - **Investment Logic**: The supply and demand of nickel are loose, but there is cost support. The nickel price will maintain a range - bound operation [98]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wide - range shock; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell the 2512 - contract strangle combination [99]. Stainless Steel - **Investment Logic**: The supply and demand of stainless steel are weak, and it is difficult to obtain production profits. The social inventory has increased slightly [101]. - **No trading strategy content provided specifically for the logic above, but based on the general format, it should be summarized if available.**

Group 1: Project Update - The Sanyou Soda Ash Carbon Filter System Optimization Project has successfully completed trial production, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement through an "one replaces two" upgrade plan, which includes the addition of one vacuum filter to replace two existing units, effectively reducing steam consumption [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.75% and 4%, marking the second rate cut of the year [2] - The Fed's statement indicated that the U.S. economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2] - The Fed is closely monitoring risks to its dual mandate of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting an increase in downside risks to employment [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Fed Chair Powell's remarks, U.S. stock indices experienced initial declines but stabilized by the close, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 slightly down while the Nasdaq Composite rose slightly to a new closing high [3] - Powell's comments about the uncertainty of a December rate cut led to brief market volatility, highlighting divisions among Fed officials regarding the rate decision [3] Group 4: Soda Ash Market Analysis - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a narrow fluctuation under a backdrop of supply-demand balance, with prices running weakly; light soda ash prices range from 930 to 1600 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash prices range from 930 to 1480 yuan/ton [4] - The market is characterized by high supply and weak demand, leading to price suppression, while rising coal prices and industry losses are providing some support for price stability [5] Group 5: Future Market Predictions - There are currently no significant demand growth points in the soda ash market, with high inventory levels allowing for negotiation space in transactions [6] - Companies are operating at low profit margins, limiting the potential for further price declines, and the market is expected to maintain a stable yet slightly adjusted trend [6] Group 6: Production and Profitability - The soda ash industry is operating at approximately 84.30% capacity, with production estimated at around 746,000 tons, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [12] - The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is reported at 1.522 million tons, a slight increase from the previous week [14] - Profit margins for soda ash production methods are negative, with the soda ash production using the ammonia-soda process showing a loss of 41.70 yuan/ton, indicating continued financial pressure on producers [16]