（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（1月2日）纽约尾盘，标普500股指期货最终涨0.13%，道指期货涨0.55%，纳斯达克 100股指期货跌0.24%。罗素2000股指期涨货0.89%。 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 futures declined by 0.74% at the end of trading in New York on Wednesday [1] - The Dow futures fell by 0.40% [1] - The Nasdaq 100 futures decreased by 0.84% [1] - The Russell 2000 futures dropped by 0.48% [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall reference view for financial futures index stocks is "oscillating with a slight upward bias". For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", the intraday view is "slightly strong", and the overall view is "oscillating with a slight upward bias". For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "slightly strong", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [1][5]. - Policy - side positive expectations and the trend of capital inflows support the index. As these factors ferment and the demand for medium - and long - term funds to allocate A - shares increases, the risk appetite of the stock market will gradually rise. However, as the index approaches the previous high, it faces technical resistance, and continued upward movement requires policy and capital support. Near the New Year's Day holiday, market risk appetite has declined, and in the short term, the index will mainly maintain range - bound oscillations [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For IH2603, the short - term is "oscillating", the medium - term is "oscillating", the intraday is "slightly strong", and the view reference is "oscillating with a slight upward bias". The core logic is the unchanged positive policy expectations and capital inflow trends [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "slightly strong", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating with a slight upward bias". Yesterday, each index oscillated and consolidated. The total trading volume of the stock market was 2161.2 billion yuan, an increase of 360 million yuan from the previous day. Policy - side positive expectations and capital inflows support the index. With the fermentation of positive policy expectations and the increasing demand for medium - and long - term funds to allocate A - shares, the risk appetite of the stock market has gradually increased, and the index has continued to rebound since last week. But as it approaches the previous high, it faces technical resistance, and continued upward movement needs policy and capital support. Near the New Year's Day holiday, market risk appetite has declined, and in the short term, the index will mainly maintain range - bound oscillations [5].

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: 4.123% in the US, 4.497% in the UK, 3.562% in France, 2.854% in Germany, 3.548% in Italy, 3.286% in Spain, 0.276% in Switzerland, 3.439% in Greece, 2.059% in Japan, 6.197% in Brazil, 1.851% in China, 4.746% in Australia, 4.381% in New Zealand [1] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: 3.449% in the US, 3.721% in the UK, 2.119% in Germany, 1.168% in Japan, 2.193% in Italy, 1.332% in China (1Y yield), 4.041% in Australia [1] - The exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: 16.593 against the South African rand, 1439.750 against the South Korean won, 31.505 against the Thai baht, 4.049 against the Malaysian ringgit. The latest on - shore RMB exchange rate is 6.996, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.992 [1] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: 6896.240 for the Dow Jones, 48367.060 for the S&P 500, 23419.080 for the Industrial Index, 64366.700 for the Nasdaq, 9940.710 for the Mexican stock index, 8168.150 for the UK stock index, 24490.410 for the French CAC, 17354.900 for the German DAX, etc [1] - The latest value of the US investment - grade credit bond index is 5.475 [1] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 3965.12, 4651.28, 3036.55, 3242.90, and 7458.94 respectively. The percentage changes are - 0.00%, 0.26%, 0.06%, 0.63%, and 0.38% respectively [2] - Valuation: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are 14.19, 11.83, 33.79, 27.55, and 18.95 respectively. The环比 changes are 0.03, 0.02, 0.09, - 0.03, and 0.10 respectively [2] - Risk premium: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.49, and that of German DAX is 2.42. The环比 changes are 0.00 and - 0.06 respectively [2] - Fund flow: The latest values of A - shares, the main board, the small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 279.78, - 268.14, N/A, - 0.27, and 84.86 respectively. The 5 - day average values are - 155.53, - 161.57, N/A, 5.04, and 31.34 respectively [2] Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: The latest values of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, the small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext are 21423.26, 4571.85, 1131.75, 4636.74, and 5594.95 respectively. The环比 changes are 29.88, - 254.29, - 39.45, 7.14, and 215.29 respectively [3] - Main contract's premium or discount: The basis of IF, IH, and IC are - 29.08, - 1.15, and - 77.94 respectively. The amplitudes are - 0.63%, - 0.04%, and - 1.04% respectively [3] - Treasury futures trading data: The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are 107.94, 105.82, 107.95, and 105.82 respectively. The percentage changes are - 0.03%, - 0.02%, - 0.04%, and - 0.02% respectively [3] - Fund interest rates: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3782%, 2.0620%, and 1.6000% respectively. The daily changes are - 56.00BP, 12.00BP, and 0.00BP respectively [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: December 30, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily market conditions of multiple stock index futures, including IM, IF, IC, and IH, covering closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis points, and other key data, as well as the trading volume and position information of major member seats [4][23][41][62]. 3. Summary by Category IM Futures - **Market Conditions**: The IM main contract rose 0.22% to close at 7459.2 points. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 163,327 lots, an increase of 3,610 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 372,661 lots, an increase of 11,019 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 138.1 points, with an annualized basis rate of -8.34% [4][5]. - **Major Seats**: In the IM2601 contract, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), with a trading volume of 37,726 lots and an increase of 3,163 lots from the previous day. In terms of long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) had the largest position, and in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the largest position [18]. IF Futures - **Market Conditions**: The IF main contract rose 0.3% to close at 4622.2 points. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 94,429 lots, a decrease of 1,730 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 281,129 lots, an increase of 5,274 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 29.08 points, with an annualized basis rate of -2.84% [23][24]. - **Major Seats**: In the IF2601 contract, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the largest trading volume, with 9,509 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the largest position, and in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) also had the largest position [36]. IC Futures - **Market Conditions**: The IC main contract rose 0.5% to close at 7381 points. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 117,475 lots, an increase of 4,688 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 288,847 lots, an increase of 13,084 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 77.94 points, with an annualized basis rate of -4.76% [41][42]. - **Major Seats**: In the IC2601 contract, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the largest trading volume, with 26,544 lots. In terms of long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) had the largest position, and in terms of short positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) also had the largest position [56]. IH Futures - **Market Conditions**: The IH main contract fell 0.05% to close at 3035.4 points. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 41,166 lots, an increase of 1,667 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 88,407 lots, an increase of 1,165 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 1.15 points, with an annualized basis rate of -0.17% [62][63]. - **Major Seats**: In the IH2601 contract, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the largest trading volume, with 9,988 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the largest position, and in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) also had the largest position [78].

Core Viewpoint - The stock index futures opened lower on December 30, with declines across major indices, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI 1000 index futures fell by 0.15% [1] - The CSI 300 index futures decreased by 0.27% [1] - The CSI 500 index futures dropped by 0.28% [1] - The SSE 50 index futures declined by 0.22% [1]

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.111, UK 4.486, France 3.524, Germany 2.828, Italy 3.503, Spain 3.249, Switzerland 0.263, Greece 3.393, Japan 2.045, Brazil 6.156, China 1.854, Australia 4.755, New Zealand 4.439 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.456, UK 3.715, Germany 2.114, Japan 1.151, Italy 2.205, China (1Y yield) 1.324, Australia 4.049 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.573, South Africa zar 16.678, Korean won 1434.000, Thai baht 31.448, Malaysian ringgit 4.060 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 7.006, off - shore RMB 6.997, RMB central parity rate 7.033, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.871 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6905.740, Dow Jones Industrial Average 48461.930, Nasdaq 23474.350, Mexican stock index 65347.080, UK stock index 9866.530, France CAC 8112.020, Germany DAX 24351.120, Spanish stock index 17195.800, Japanese Nikkei 50526.920, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 25635.230, Shanghai Composite Index 3965.280, Taiwan stock index 28810.890, South Korean stock index 4220.560, Indian stock index 8644.256, Thai stock index 1254.030, Malaysian stock index 1680.990, Australian stock index 9032.046, emerging - economy stock index 1401.660 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.878, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 410.230 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 3965.28, up 0.04%; CSI 300 closing price 4639.37, down 0.38%; SSE 50 closing price 3034.63, down 0.35%; ChiNext closing price 3222.61, down 0.66%; CSI 500 closing price 7430.61, down 0.38% [4] - Valuation: PE (TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.16 (up 0.01), SSE 50 is 11.81 (up 0.03), CSI 500 is 33.70 (down 0.13), S&P 500 is 27.59 (down 0.09), Germany DAX is 18.85 (up 0.01) [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.49 (up 0.03), Germany DAX is 2.48 [4] - Fund flow: A - shares' latest value is - 858.51, 5 - day average is - 242.00; Main - board's latest value is - 675.82, 5 - day average is - 229.00; ChiNext's latest value is - 163.63, 5 - day average is - 17.01; CSI 300's latest value is - 150.77, 5 - day average is 25.26 [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: The latest value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 21393.38 (down 208.53), CSI 300 is 4826.14 (up 221.87), SSE 50 is 1171.20 (up 162.03), small and medium - sized board is 4629.60 (down 42.78), ChiNext is 5379.66 (down 333.48) [5] - Main contract basis and spread: IF basis is - 29.17 (- 0.63%), IH basis is 3.37 (0.11%), IC basis is - 94.01 (- 1.27%) [5] - Treasury - bond futures: T2303 closing price is 107.98 (down 0.30%), TF2303 closing price is 105.84 (down 0.20%), T2306 closing price is 107.99 (down 0.30%), TF2306 closing price is 105.85 (down 0.17%) [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.3376% (down 19.00 BP), R007 is 1.9360% (up 41.00 BP), SHIBOR - 3M is 1.6000% (no change) [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic data in November put pressure on the upside of A-shares. However, the National Fiscal Work Conference held from December 27 - 28 had a positive impact on market sentiment, creating a warm macro - environment for the market, and A - shares have strong bottom support. The market's expectation of the dovish stance of the new Fed Chairman led to a weaker US dollar, and the continuous strengthening of the RMB exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in January 2026 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Quotes - **Contract Prices**: IF (2603) is at 4610.2 (-25.8), IH (2603) at 3038.0 (-14.6), IC (2603) at 7336.6 (-49.6), and IM (2603) at 7439.0 (-38.4). The prices of their respective secondary contracts also decreased [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1594.8 (-14.2), IC - IF spread is 2790.8 (-8.6), etc. Some spreads increased while others decreased [2]. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: IF quarter - to - month spreads are -20.6 (-2.0) for the current quarter and -63.4 (+2.6) for the next quarter. Similar data is provided for other contracts, with various changes [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 20 Holders**: IF is -28,924.00 (-709.0), IH is -14,420.00 (-457.0), IC is -29,750.00 (-1336.0), and IM is -38,985.00 (-1757.0) [2]. Spot Prices - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 is at 4639.37 (-17.9), the Shanghai 50 is at 3034.6 (-10.8), the CSI 500 is at 7430.6 (-28.2), and the CSI 1000 is at 7594.2 (-11.4). The basis of their corresponding futures contracts also changed [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 21,576.86 billion yuan (-234.17 billion yuan), margin trading balance is 25,433.30 billion yuan (-21.00 billion yuan), and north - bound trading volume is 1671.78 billion yuan (-132.60 billion yuan). Other indicators such as the proportion of rising stocks, option prices, and volatilities also showed different changes [2]. Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share market strength index is 4.10 (-0.80), the technical index is 3.70 (+0.30), and the capital index is 4.50 (-1.90) [2]. Industry News - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 66268.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%, but in November, the profit decreased by 13.1% year - on - year. The National Fiscal Work Conference stated that a more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented in 2026, with measures such as expanding fiscal expenditure and optimizing government bonds [2]. Market Performance - A - share major indices closed with mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.66%. Most industry sectors declined, and overseas, Trump may announce a new Fed Chairman this week [2].

1. Report Date - The report is dated December 29, 2025 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,594.16, down 0.15%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 159,717 lots, a decrease of 53,242 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 361,642 lots, a decrease of 19,963 lots [4][5] - The main contract of IM fell 0.48% to close at 7,439 points. The main contract was at a discount of 155.16 points, a decrease of 22.03 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -9.28% [4][5] 2.2 Positions of Major Seats - In IM2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 34,563 lots, a decrease of 8,213 lots. The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 26,099 lots, a decrease of 1,845 lots, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 33,325 lots, a decrease of 2,930 lots [19] 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,639.37, down 0.38%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 96,159 lots, a decrease of 22,687 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 275,855 lots, a decrease of 12,050 lots [24][25] - The main contract of IF fell 0.43% to close at 4,610.2 points. The main contract was at a discount of 29.17 points, a decrease of 10.33 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -2.82% [24][25] 3.2 Positions of Major Seats - In IF2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 9,580 lots, a decrease of 955 lots. The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 9,064 lots, a decrease of 899 lots, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 7,797 lots, a decrease of 871 lots [38] 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 7,430.61, down 0.38%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 112,787 lots, a decrease of 36,757 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 275,763 lots, a decrease of 17,385 lots [43][44] - The main contract of IC fell 0.51% to close at 7,336.6 points. The main contract was at a discount of 94.01 points, a decrease of 23.17 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -5.7% [43][44] 4.2 Positions of Major Seats - In IC2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 26,236 lots, a decrease of 6,797 lots. The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 23,208 lots, a decrease of 2,458 lots, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were led by Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 22,957 lots, a decrease of 2,430 lots [57] 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 3,034.63, down 0.35%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 39,499 lots, a decrease of 11,586 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 87,242 lots, a decrease of 5,602 lots [63] - The main contract of IH fell 0.36% to close at 3,038 points. The main contract was at a premium of 3.37 points, a decrease of 2.63 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was 0.49% [63][64] 5.2 Positions of Major Seats - In IH2601, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 9,106 lots, a decrease of 1,364 lots. The top five seats in terms of long positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 6,163 lots, a decrease of 588 lots, and the top five seats in terms of short positions were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 8,246 lots, a decrease of 334 lots [73]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating and strengthening, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The policy - side favorable expectations and the trend of capital net inflow jointly form the medium - and long - term support for the stock index. With the approach of the previous high position of the stock index, pay attention to whether the stock index can break through the technical resistance of the previous high in the short term. Overall, the bullish factors continue to ferment, and the stock index is oscillating and strengthening in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term is oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, the intraday is strengthening, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is that the policy - side favorable expectations and the trend of capital net inflow remain unchanged [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, IM, the intraday view is strengthening, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is that last Friday, each stock index oscillated and rose. The total market turnover of the stock market was 2160.3 billion yuan, an increase of 216.5 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The recent trading volume of the stock market has gradually increased, and the stock index has risen continuously, indicating that the market risk appetite continues to recover. As the new year approaches, the policy - side favorable expectations gradually ferment. Coupled with the appreciation of the RMB, a large number of relatively high - interest time deposits will mature next year, and their "re - allocation" may bring a large amount of incremental capital inflow to the stock market. The policy - side favorable expectations and the trend of capital net inflow jointly form the medium - and long - term support for the stock index [5]