| 2026-01-12 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 年度涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4774 | 0. 83 | 0. 64 | 3.79 | 3.79 | 3.79 | | | 上证50期货 | 3140. 2 | 0.36 | 0. 17 | 3.81 | 3.81 | 3.81 | | | 中证500期货 | 8236. 6 | 2. 81 | 2. 47 | 11. 87 | 11. 87 | 11. 87 | | | 中证1000期货 | 8311. 4 | 3.68 | 3.27 | 11. 77 | 11. 77 | 11. 77 | | 国债 | 2年期国债期货 | 102. 34 | -0. 01 | 0 | -0. 11 | -0. 11 | -0. 11 | | | 5年期国债期货 | 105. 625 | 0. 01 | 0.05 | -0. 13 | -0. 13 | -0. 13 | | | 10年期国债 ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | | | | 期指：乐观情绪主导 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | | maolei@gtht.com | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | 沪深300 | | 4789.9 | ↑0.65 | | 7999.5 | | | | | | IF2601 | | 4789.4 | ↑0.67 | -0.52 | 548.9 | 38339 | ↓748 | 48212 | ↓2278 | | IF2602 | | 4780.6 | ↑0.72 | -9.32 | 131.5 | 9202 | ↑2898 | 13922 | ↑2742 | | IF2603 | | 4774 | ↑0.72 | -1 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a Hotspot Tracking released on January 9, 2026, by the Research and Consulting Department [2] Group 2: Daily Data Analysis Daily Price Changes and Fund Flows - The report presents the daily price changes and fund flows of various futures and commodities including Apple, CSI 500 Futures, CSI 1000 Futures, etc [5] Daily Fund Changes - It shows the percentage changes in funds for a wide range of futures and commodities [7] Daily Trading Volume Changes - The percentage changes in trading volume for different futures and commodities are provided [9] Daily Fund Inflow Ranking - The top five commodities with daily fund inflows are Apple, CSI 500 Futures, CSI 1000 Futures, Wire Rod, and Fuel Oil; the top five with daily fund outflows are Nickel, Peanut, Coking Coal, Pulp, and Alumina [11] Position Value Proportion - The position value proportions of different futures and commodities are given, with CSI 1000 Futures at 16%, CSI 500 Futures at 13%, Shanghai Gold at 11%, etc [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Based on the gradually increasing policy expectations in China, it is recommended to emphasize the offensiveness of portfolio allocation under the "balanced allocation" strategy framework. Long - position overweight is recommended for stock indices and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). Precious metals should be standard - allocated in the short term and overweighted at low levels after volatility stabilizes. For different asset classes, the driving logics in the quarterly dimension vary: the domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts; treasury bonds can be considered for bull - steepening opportunities under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited, and a standard allocation is generally recommended; precious metals have high short - term volatility, and investors are advised to build positions at low levels after volatility stabilizes; non - ferrous metals perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry; black commodities return to a weak and oscillatory state after the rebound driven by winter storage; crude oil is generally oscillatory and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas**: Trump may announce the nomination for the new Fed Chair in January. Hassett is the most popular candidate, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years. The geopolitical event in Venezuela over the weekend has a relatively limited short - term positive effect on crude oil and precious metals. Venezuela has about 17% of the world's oil reserves but its actual daily output is only about 1 million barrels, accounting for 1% of the global supply [5]. - **Domestic**: Policy expectations are rising in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The 2026 national subsidy policy has been released, with some optimizations compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two important" construction projects and the central budget investment plan for 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and approved or approved major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds issued at the end of October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [5]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: It is recommended to overweight. The domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to maintain a standard allocation. There are opportunities for bull - steepening under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Standard - allocate in the short term due to high volatility, and overweight at low levels after volatility stabilizes. The short - term positive effect of the Venezuela event on precious metals is limited, and they may show a high - opening and falling - back trend if the conflict does not escalate [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Overweight. They perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry [5]. - **Black Commodities**: After the rebound driven by winter storage, they return to a weak and oscillatory state [5]. - **Crude Oil**: Stay on the sidelines as it is generally oscillatory [5]. 3.3 View Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is the situation of incremental funds [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Use option covered strategies to increase returns. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the liquidity of the option market [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment at the long end is still weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the implementation of monetary policy [6]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of loose liquidity is clear, and the structural shortage of silver spot persists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and the trend of geopolitical conflicts [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The near - term is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and the far - term is concerned about the risk of resumed voyages. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the 2026 shipping company's resumption arrangements, the freight rates of long - term contracts signed at the end of the year, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments to freight rates [6]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The cost performance is differentiated, and the market is in a weak adjustment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the progress of special bond issuance, steel export volume, iron - making water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - making water production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy - level dynamics [6]. - **Coke**: Four rounds of price cuts have been implemented, and the bearish sentiment still exists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal mines in the production area are gradually resuming production, but downstream procurement is still cautious. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Silicon Iron**: The electricity price has slightly loosened, and attention should be paid to production control trends. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the upward movement of the market is blocked. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, and inventory is continuously transferred. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the spot sales and production [6]. - **Soda Ash**: After the end of maintenance, production has recovered, and the upstream inventory has increased significantly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the soda ash inventory [6]. 3.3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously accumulating, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected resumption of ore production, more - than - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [6]. - **Aluminum**: The Mozal aluminum plant is facing shutdown, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the rebound space of zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply [6]. - **Lead**: The willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery has improved, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [6]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel mines, and nickel prices are rebounding. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices drives the stainless - steel market to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth [6]. - **Tin**: Downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the expectations of resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices are rising. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and policy changes [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon continues to have high volatility. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory depletion slows down, and lithium prices are under oscillatory pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and oil prices continue to oscillate. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [8]. - **LPG**: The strong - reality situation is loosening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - **Asphalt**: The political turmoil in Venezuela causes the asphalt futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the crude oil price [8]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions occur frequently, and methanol is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - energy and actual overseas shutdown dynamics [8]. - **Urea**: After - holiday trading is active, and urea is stable and strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force of ethylene glycol is general. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are fluctuations in coal and oil prices and the rhythm of port inventory [8]. - **PX**: There is a repeated game between weak terminal demand and strong expectations, and it is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and disruptions in refining and chemical plants [8]. - **PTA**: The TA processing fee is at the upper end of the range, and the continuous upward space is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and insufficient support from downstream polyester loads [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Weak terminal demand restricts price elasticity. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the demand change rhythm around the Spring Festival [8]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: More device maintenance is scheduled in January, and the basis is firm. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the implementation of bottle - grade PET enterprise production - cut targets and sea freight [8]. - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of reduced PDH operation, and PL is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [8]. - **PP**: Maintenance increases, and PP is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and plastic is considered oscillatory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Styrene**: Driven by exports and a warm commodity atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - **PVC**: Overseas device shutdowns cause PVC to rebound strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are decreasing. Caustic soda is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are market sentiment, operation, and demand [8]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are adjusting downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are customs policies, South American weather, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Trading is gradually resuming, and prices are oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are demand, the macro - situation, and weather [8]. - **Hogs**: The sow inventory decreased in December, and the far - month futures market rebounded. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market maintains an oscillatory trend. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is sharp fluctuations in crude oil [8]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are production and demand [8]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are fluctuating within a narrow range and are still under pressure in the medium term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and falling, and the key points to watch are imports and northern hemisphere production [8]. - **Pulp**: The market is driven by funds and the macro - situation, and pulp futures are oscillating repeatedly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [8]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The spot is stable, and the market is strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sales and production, education policies, and paper mill operation dynamics [8]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are shipment volume and dispatch volume [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，铂、钯跌停 ——中信期货晨报20251230 中信期货研究所 王含章 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | | 沪深300期货 | 4610.2 | -0.61% | -0.619 | 3.08% | -0.17% | 17.58% | | | 上证50期货 | 3038 | -0.44% | -0.44% | 2.67% | 1.64% | 13.44% | | 股指 | 中证500期货 | 7336.6 | -0.70% | -0.70% | 7 883 | 0.6 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指反弹持续，贵金属小幅回调 ——中信期货晨报20251226 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现金 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 李度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4610.6 | 0.344 | 1.85% | 3.09% | -0.16% | 11729X | | | 上证50期货 | 3034 | 0 23% | 0.92% | 2.53% | 1.51% | 13.29% | | | 中证500期货 | 7320.6 | 1 00 00 % | 3.76% | 7.64% | 0.41% | 28 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 沪金重回千元关口，白银再创历史新高 ——中信期货晨报20251223 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | --- | | | | | THE MAN MET LAND THE THE | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现代 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周皮涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 | | 今年涨跌幅 | | | 沪深300期货 | 4564.8 | 0.83% | 0.83% | 2.07% | -1.15% | 16.42% | | 股指 | 上证50期货 | 3018.4 | 0.40% | 0.40% | 2.01% | 0.98% | 12.71% | | | 中证500期货 | 7123. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，铂、钯表现偏强 ——中信期货晨报20251218 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4578.2 | 1.75% | 0.09% | 1.61% | -0.86% | 16.76% | 航运 贵金属 | 集运欧线 | 1699. ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Overseas: The Fed's dovish stance, combined with a downward trend in the US economy and inflation, has led to increased enthusiasm for soft - landing trades. Assets such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and US equities have support. The nomination of the new Fed chair may cause a phase of smooth trading in liquidity - easing expectations and Fed independence risks [5]. - Domestic: The tone of the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference is moderately positive. In 2026, macro - policies are expected to maintain a similar intensity to 2025, balancing long - term structural adjustment and short - term goals. External trade risks may influence policy rhythm [5]. - Asset Outlook: The current macro - environment favors precious metals and non - ferrous metals with high financial attributes. Domestic equities are conservative during the year - end and policy - free period [5]. Summary by Directory Financial - Stock Index Futures: A large premium implies positive views, and the short - term trend is upward, but attention should be paid to liquidity deterioration [6]. - Stock Index Options: Adopt an offensive strategy when the price is low, and the short - term trend is upward, with the risk of continuous market liquidity shrinkage [6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The adjustment pattern may continue in the short term, and the short - term trend is downward, affected by factors such as less - than - expected monetary easing [6]. Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Supported by economic downturn risks and interest - rate cut expectations, maintain a long - position strategy, and the short - term trend is upward, with attention to policy - expectation changes [6]. Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: With the price adjustment and news of short - term sailings suspension, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by geopolitical factors and spot freight rates [6]. Black Building Materials - Steel: Demand is picking up, but supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, with attention to special - bond issuance and steel exports [6]. - Iron Ore: Iron - water production is accelerating, and inventory - accumulation pressure is rising again. The short - term trend is volatile, affected by overseas mine production and domestic iron - water production [6]. - Coke: There is still an expectation of price increase, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by steel - mill production and coking costs [6]. - Coking Coal: Supported by the continuous increase in iron - water production, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by steel - mill production and coal - mine safety inspections [6]. - Ferrosilicon: With active resumption of production in Ningxia and rising cost support, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by raw - material costs and steel procurement [6]. - Manganese Silicon: Factory resumption is slow, and supply - demand has improved. The short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by cost prices and external quotes [6]. - Glass: With the decline in macro - sentiment, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by spot sales [6]. - Soda Ash: Supply - demand pressure is high, and inventory is accumulating. The short - term trend is volatile, affected by soda - ash inventory [6]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Driven by policies, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by supply disruptions and domestic demand recovery [6]. - Alumina: With more ore - supply disruptions, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by ore - production resumption and electrolytic - aluminum production [6]. - Aluminum: Driven by domestic macro - expectations, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by macro - risks and supply disruptions [6]. - Zinc: With the decline in macro - optimism, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by macro - risks and zinc - ore supply [6]. - Lead: Supported by the cost of recycled lead, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by exports and waste - battery prices [6]. - Nickel: Driven by domestic macro - factors, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes [6]. - Stainless Steel: Boosted by macro - sentiment, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [6]. - Tin: With tight supply - demand and positive sentiment, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by demand recovery and supply increase [6]. - Industrial Silicon: Under the pressure of warehouse - receipt cancellation, the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [6]. - Lithium Carbonate: With supply contraction at the end of the peak season, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by demand and supply disruptions [6]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical premiums and supply pressure, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [8]. - LPG: There is a short - term differentiation between the domestic and overseas markets, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - Asphalt: The price is under pressure at 3000, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: High Asian floating - storage offsets the decline in Russian fuel - oil exports, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by geopolitics and crude - oil prices [8]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Follows the weak trend of crude oil, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by crude - oil prices [8]. - Methanol: With sufficient supply inland and along the coast, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by macro - energy factors and overseas production suspension [8]. - Urea: The progress of off - season storage has slowed down, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by coal prices and inventory de - stocking [8]. - Ethylene Glycol: Market pessimism leads to inventory accumulation, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by coal and oil prices and port inventory [8]. - PX: Supported by tight PTA spot supply, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by crude - oil fluctuations and macro - changes [8]. - PTA: Spot circulation is tight, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by crude - oil fluctuations and downstream polyester load [8]. - Short - Fiber: Affected by ethylene - glycol costs, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by downstream yarn - mill purchasing and seasonality [8]. - Bottle Chip: Affected by the differentiation of upstream polyester raw - material costs, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by production - cut targets and new - device commissioning [8]. - Propylene: With a strong spot market and expected PDH production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices and domestic macro - factors [8]. - PP: Boosted by expected PDH production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [8]. - Plastic: With limited raw - material and maintenance support, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [8]. - Styrene: Affected by repeated maintenance news, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - PVC: With limited production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - Caustic Soda: Without upstream production cuts, the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by market sentiment and demand [8]. Agriculture - Natural Rubber: The price fluctuates widely without strong drivers, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by production - area weather and raw - material prices [8]. - Synthetic Rubber: The market sentiment is positive, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by crude - oil fluctuations [8]. - Cotton: The short - term trend is volatile, affected by production and demand [8]. - Sugar: There is pressure at the upper level and short - term support at the lower level, and the short - term trend is volatile and downward, affected by imports and Northern - Hemisphere production [8]. - Pulp: Driven by positive news, the short - term trend is volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US - dollar quotes [8]. - Offset Paper: There are no obvious contradictions, and the short - term trend is volatile, affected by production - sales and paper - mill operations [8]. - Log: With a low valuation, the short - term trend is volatile and upward, affected by shipment and delivery volumes [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of commodity market trends, highlighting price fluctuations, trading volumes, and capital flows across various sectors, including financial futures, precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and black commodities. Group 1: Financial Futures - The CSI 300 futures increased by 0.76% over the last five days and 21.76% year-to-date [10] - The SSE 50 futures rose by 0.39% in the last five days, with a year-to-date increase of 14.24% [10] - The CSI 500 futures showed a 0.95% increase over five days and a significant 38.67% rise year-to-date [10] Group 2: Precious Metals - SHFE gold futures experienced a slight increase of 0.15% over the last five days, with a substantial year-to-date gain of 52.53% [10] - SHFE silver futures saw a more pronounced increase of 2.06% over the last five days and an impressive 80.69% year-to-date [10] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals - SHFE copper futures rose by 1.54% over the last five days, with a year-to-date increase of 26.21% [11] - SHFE aluminum futures increased by 0.27% in the last five days, with a year-to-date gain of 12.87% [11] - SHFE lead futures showed a modest increase of 0.23% over the last five days, with a year-to-date increase of 2.64% [11] Group 4: Black Commodities - SHFE rebar futures decreased by 1.30% over the last five days, with a year-to-date decline of 10.59% [12] - DCE iron ore futures fell by 1.14% in the last five days, but have increased by 6.84% year-to-date [12] - DCE coking coal futures experienced a significant drop of 6.14% over the last five days, with a year-to-date decline of 26.28% [12]