研究报告 股指周报 上周 A 股市场评述 摘要： 【行情复盘】 8 月 22 日，A 股延续强势表现，沪指一举突破 3800 点，再创 十年新高。截止收盘，沪指涨 1.45%，收报 3825.76 点；深证成 指涨 2.07%，收报 12166.06 点；创业板指涨 3.36%，收报 2682.55 点；科创 50 指数涨 8.59%，收报 1247.86 点。行业板块涨多跌少， 半导体、电子化学品、证券、教育、计算机设备、软件开发板块 涨幅居前，燃气、化肥行业、石油行业、银行板块跌幅居前。沪 深两市成交额达到 25467 亿，较昨日放量 1227 亿。 【债券】 上周，国债期货集体上涨。具体如下： | | 主力合约名称 | 上周涨跌幅(%) | 上周收盘价(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 30 | 年期国债期货 | -1.05 | 115.980 | | 10 | 年期国债期货 | -0.52 | 107.660 | | 5 | 年期国债期货 | -0.28 | 105.370 | | 2 | 年期国债期货 | -0.06 | 102.318 | | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The high - interest - rate environment affects consumption, and inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. - Domestic: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with weakening consumption and investment and declining credit demand. Exports provided support in July, but the pressure on exports may gradually emerge from September. - Asset Outlook: At the end of August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption. The global central bank summit in late August is also a window for speculating on Fed policies. As the economic growth slowdown pressure rises, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, and there are differences in CPI and PPI expectations. Inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing Fed decisions [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In July, the domestic economic growth rate slowed down. Exports provided support, but the "rush to import" from the US decreased in late July. Exports may remain resilient in August but face pressure from September [8]. - **Asset Views**: In late August, the market enters a verification period and a policy - preview window. With the economic slowdown, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Growth opportunities are spreading, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: An offensive strategy can be deployed, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season is turning to the off - season, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Affected by production - restriction news, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: With continuous production - restriction expectations, the seventh round of price increases has started, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the extension of the tariff suspension between China and the US [9]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The spot is weakly stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [9]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory has slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The inventory - accumulation pressure continues, and it is expected to fluctuate downwards [11]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Asphalt**: The price at 3500 may turn from support to pressure, and it is expected to decline [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Hogs**: Affected by stricter transportation policies, the price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate upwards, mainly in a range - bound pattern [11]. - **Pulp**: The price of coniferous wood pulp in US dollars has not increased, and it is expected to fluctuate [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. High - interest rates impact consumption, there is a differentiation in CPI and PPI expectations, and inflation may rebound in autumn, affecting the Fed's decision - making. In the short - term, market risk appetite is expected to remain strong [6]. - Domestic macro: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with consumption, investment, and credit demand weakening. Exports were the main support for the domestic economy. August exports may remain resilient, but there may be pressure starting from September [6]. - Asset views: In late August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the global central bank summit is a game window for Fed policy. The rise of risk assets is driven by tariff and geopolitical risk mitigation and loose liquidity expectations. As economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term, with pressure in the medium - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, CPI and PPI expectations are different, and inflation may rebound in autumn [6]. - Domestic: July economic data growth slowed, with exports as the main support. August exports may be resilient, but September may face pressure [6]. - Assets: Late August is a key period for investment, consumption, and Fed policy. Risk assets are driven by positive factors, and short - term market volatility may increase as the economy slows [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [7]. - Stock index options: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are expected to strengthen with volatility, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and prices are falling from high levels, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Iron ore: Fundamentals are healthy, and prices are slightly回调 after sentiment cools, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Other products (such as coke, coking coal, etc.): All are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, etc.: Most metals are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with factors such as supply, demand, and policies affecting prices [7]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to show a volatile upward trend in the short - term [7]. - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure exists, and the short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend [9]. - Other chemicals: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Palm oil is leading the rise, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [9]. - Other agricultural products: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Domestic Commodity Futures Mostly Decline, Black Series Generally Close Lower - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250814" [1] Group 2: Market Performance Domestic Main Commodities - Index futures generally showed an upward trend. For example, the CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.96%, a weekly increase of 2.15%, a monthly increase of 2.81%, a quarterly increase of 7.33%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.37% [4] - Treasury futures mostly had minor fluctuations. The 2 - year Treasury futures had a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, a monthly increase of 0.02%, a quarterly decrease of 0.13%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.59% [4] - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index decreased by 0.20% weekly, 21.98% monthly, 13.4% quarterly, and 9.60% year - to - date [4] - Interest rates showed different trends. The 10Y Chinese bond yield increased by 7.9bp quarterly and 0.1bp year - to - date, while the 10Y US Treasury yield increased by 5bp quarterly and decreased by 26bp year - to - date [4] Popular Industries - Some industries like the grass - colored gold industry had good performance, with a daily increase of 1.28%, a weekly increase of 4.59%, a monthly increase of 4.37%, a quarterly increase of 11.54%, and a year - to - date increase of 31.85%. While some industries like the pharmaceutical industry had a daily decrease of 0.86%, a weekly decrease of 0.88%, a monthly decrease of 0.88%, a quarterly increase of 12.63%, and a year - to - date increase of 21.76% [4] Overseas Commodities - In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 1.44% daily, 0.43% weekly, 9.03% monthly, 2.91% quarterly, and 12.23% year - to - date [4] - Precious metals such as COMEX gold increased by 0.17% daily, decreased by 1.69% weekly, increased by 1.71% monthly, increased by 2.55% quarterly, and increased by 28.81% year - to - date [4] - In the non - ferrous metals sector, LME copper increased by 1.17% daily, 0.74% weekly, 2.43% monthly, decreased by 0.38% quarterly, and increased by 12.05% year - to - date [4] - In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans increased by 2.18% daily, 4.64% weekly, 4.24% monthly, 0.46% quarterly, and 2.20% year - to - date [4] Other Domestic Commodities - Many commodities showed various trends. For example, the shipping container freight rate to Europe (ECSA) increased by 5.96% daily, decreased by 7.17% weekly, decreased by 6.46% monthly, decreased by 0.44% quarterly, and decreased by 40.93% year - to - date [5] Group 3: Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas Macro - The overseas market is facing a situation where the US economic fundamentals are weak. The China - US tariff negotiation period is postponed to November 12. The US CPI in July met expectations. The upcoming tariff implementation in August may test market sentiment. The internal personnel change in the Fed and the US CPI data next week will guide market expectations for interest rate cuts and risk appetite [9] Domestic Macro - China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face the risk of decline and restricted re - export trade [9] Asset Views - Domestically, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit repair window in the second half of the month. Maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. Overseas, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations and maintain the allocation of US bonds. Slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from the weak US dollar and reduce the allocation of US dollar money market funds to be cautious about interest rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the policy and data inflection points in late August [9] Group 4: Viewpoints on Different Sectors Finance - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term outlook is a fluctuating upward trend. Stock index options: Layout offensive strategies, with a short - term fluctuating upward trend. Treasury futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term fluctuating trend [10] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards as the market returns to the logic of the restart of the interest rate cut cycle, with the US economic fundamentals weakening [10] Shipping - The shipping container freight rate to Europe is expected to fluctuate as the market focuses on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases [10] Black Building Materials - Most products in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, are expected to fluctuate. For example, steel has strong cost support, and iron ore has a healthy fundamental situation [10] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. have different short - term trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate downward, while aluminum is expected to continue to recover, but the overall demand weakness needs to be noted [10] Energy and Chemicals - Most products in this sector are expected to fluctuate. For example, crude oil is expected to fluctuate downward due to geopolitical concerns easing and supply pressure remaining. Some chemicals like LPG are expected to fluctuate due to cost and demand factors [12] Agriculture - Oils, fats, and protein meals are expected to continue to be strong, while corn/starch is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: Market bets on Fed rate cuts decreased in the early part of the week, but the July non - farm payrolls data triggered concerns about US employment and economic downturn, increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data on August 12, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23, and August non - farm payrolls [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable economic progress in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting focused on using existing policies more effectively, with limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI remained above the critical point, and the progress of US negotiations with China, Mexico and other economies should be monitored [5]. - Asset views: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: Market bets on Fed rate cuts fell in the first half of the week due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting, and rising PCE in June. However, the July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing, with significant downward revisions in May and June, and a rising unemployment rate under a declining labor participation rate, increasing expectations of US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts [5]. - Domestic: The July Politburo meeting emphasized using existing policies effectively, with limited new policies. The July composite PMI was above the critical point, and attention should be paid to US economic negotiations [5]. - Asset: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities, with stronger policy - driven logic in the second half of the year and higher probability of incremental policies in Q4. Overseas, concerns about US economic slowdown boost gold. The long - term weak US dollar trend continues, and non - US dollar assets should be watched [5]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: After event settlement, capital congestion eases. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [6]. - Stock index options: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure, and it is expected to move sideways [6]. - Treasury bond futures: The market continues to digest Politburo meeting information. It is expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [6]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: With the US fundamentals weakening and the restart of the rate - cut cycle logic, precious metals are expected to rise in a volatile manner, influenced by Trump's tariff policy and Fed's monetary policy [6]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to move sideways, affected by tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [6]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: With strong anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, the futures market is firm. It is expected to move sideways, depending on special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot - metal production [6]. - Iron ore: With a slight decrease in small - sample hot - metal production, the price moves sideways, affected by factors such as overseas mine production, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policies [6]. - Other products (coke, etc.): All are expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as production, cost, and macro - sentiment [6]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Affected by disappointing US non - farm payrolls data, the price is under pressure and expected to decline in a volatile manner, influenced by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery [6]. - Other metals: Most are expected to move sideways, affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and macro - risks [6]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: With geopolitical expectations fluctuating, it is expected to move sideways, affected by OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [9]. - Other chemical products: All are expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and policies [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Most agricultural products: Are expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as weather, supply, demand, and policies [9]. - Logs: Are expected to decline in a volatile manner, affected by shipment and delivery volumes [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-shares continued to rise strongly with ample market liquidity, and the margin balance returned above 2 trillion yuan for the first time in a decade, with the margin trading balance reaching a new high since July 1, 2015. The current stock index valuation is still supported, and it is advisable to buy stock indices opportunistically [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Money and Bond Market - DROO1 closed at 1.32 with a 0.10 bp increase, DR007 at 1.46 with a 1.12 bp increase, GC001 at 1.50 with a 4.50 bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 0.50 bp increase [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.56 with a 0.10 bp increase, LPR 5-year at 3.50 with no change, 1-year treasury bond at 1.37 with a 0.52 bp decrease, 5-year treasury bond at 1.56 with a 0.97 bp decrease, 10-year treasury bond at 1.70 with a 0.40 bp decrease, and 10-year US treasury bond at 4.22 with no change [4] - The central bank conducted 138.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with 309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan. This week, 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 495.8 billion, 449.2 billion, 309 billion, 283.2 billion, and 126 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - In July, the SLF had a net withdrawal of 300 million yuan, MLF a net injection of 10 billion yuan, PSL a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan, short-term reverse repurchase a net injection of 18.8 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase a net injection of 20 billion yuan. No open market treasury bond transactions were conducted in July [4] Stock Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4113 with a 0.24% increase, SSE 50 at 2797 with a 0.24% increase, CSI 500 at 6357 with a 0.86% increase, and CSI 1000 at 6861 with a 1.09% increase [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.7341 trillion yuan, an increase of 138 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors rose, with the shipbuilding sector rising significantly, and the rubber products, motor, aerospace, gaming, general equipment, and auto parts sectors leading the gains, while the traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical commerce, and chemical pharmaceutical sectors led the losses [5] - IF volume was 73,908 with an 8.2% decrease, and open interest was 253,006 with a 1.0% decrease; IH volume was 36,686 with a 9.9% decrease, and open interest was 91,160 with a 1.7% decrease; IC volume was 72,137 with a 9.5% increase, and open interest was 219,342 with a 2.0% increase; IM volume was 176,382 with a 13.6% increase, and open interest was 341,310 with a 3.4% increase [5] Futures Premium and Discount Situation - Premium and discount rates for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, with specific values for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities; in the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about the decline in US employment and economic slowdown are rising, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year is increasing, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [7]. - Most domestic commodity futures declined, with crude oil leading the decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, the market's bets on the Fed's interest rate cut declined as the US Q2 GDP was better than expected, and the Fed's July meeting sent hawkish signals. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing concerns about the US economic downturn and the Fed's interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to US inflation data, the Jackson Hole meeting, and other events [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI was still above the critical point. The negotiation progress between the US and other economies needs to be monitored [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After event settlement, capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. The Trump tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy should be monitored. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel**: After the meeting results are settled, attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as overseas mine production and transportation, domestic iron - water production, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand remain tight, and the fifth round of price increases has started. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has significantly corrected. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is acceptable. Attention should be paid to cost adjustments. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: The futures price has declined, and spot sales have started to weaken. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Freight has risen in the short - term, supporting the spot price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering soda - ash inventory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: A non - ferrous metal growth - stabilization plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply disturbances, domestic policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [8]. - **Alumina**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the alumina price is adjusting at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected ore production resumption and electrolytic - aluminum production resumption [8]. - **Aluminum**: The sentiment boost has slowed down, and the aluminum price has declined. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks, supply disturbances, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Macro - sentiment persists, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks and unexpected zinc - ore supply recovery [8]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the lead price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply - side disturbances and other factors [8]. - **Nickel**: The "anti - involution" trading has slowed down, and the nickel price is moving in a wide - range volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected supply - side production cuts [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is strengthening in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" sentiment still exists, and the silicon price has rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering unexpected supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has corrected after rising. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and supply disturbances [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues. Attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and the cost side dominates the rhythm. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have declined, and there is pressure from increased asphalt production. The futures price is under downward pressure. It is expected to decline, considering unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The possibility of a sharp decline in the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is increasing. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has weakened following crude oil. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: There is a short - term differentiation between the inland and ports. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are below expectations. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering export policies and capacity elimination [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the arrival rhythm, and inventory accumulation is expected in August. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering port inventory accumulation inflection points and device recovery [10]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has returned to fundamental pricing. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream PTA maintenance schedules and gasoline profit seasonality [10]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down, and processing fees are still under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering mainstream device production cuts and polyester joint production cuts [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand improvement is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythms and开工 [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: The production reduction scale in August continues to exceed 20%, strengthening the support for processing fees. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering future bottle - chip production [10]. - **Propylene**: Weak propane suppresses it, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short - term, considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors [10]. - **PP**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has changed, and the PP price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Plastic**: Macro - support has weakened, and the plastic price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality pricing, and the futures price is declining in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot pressure is emerging, and the caustic - soda price is moving weakly. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Attention should be paid to the palm oil production in Malaysia. Recently, oils and fats are expected to move in a volatile consolidation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The market continues the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and domestic demand [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment continues to be weak. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and weather [10]. - **Live Pigs**: Inventory pressure persists, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is stabilizing following commodities. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The driving factors are unclear, and the futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [10]. - **Pulp**: It mainly follows the macro - trend. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price and the price difference between months have rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the sugar price is under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering imports [10]. - **Logs**: The bullish sentiment is strong, and the log futures price is rising with increasing positions. It is expected to decline in a volatile manner, considering shipment and dispatch volumes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: Market concerns about US employment decline and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - dollar assets [5]. - Domestic: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, with a higher probability of incremental policy implementation in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Earlier in the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff relaxation, hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting, etc. However, the July non - farm payrolls data falling short of expectations and downward revisions in May and June, along with rising unemployment, increased market concerns about US economic decline and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data on August 12, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23, and the August non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting focused on improving the quality and speed of using existing policies, with limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI remained above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the negotiation progress between the US and economies such as China and Mexico [5]. - **Asset Views**: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and incremental policies are more likely to be implemented in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts, which is favorable for gold. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - dollar assets [5]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After event resolution, capital congestion eases. With insufficient incremental funds, the short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, the short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Factors to watch include unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals show a volatile upward trend. Key factors to watch are Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [6]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Key factors include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: After the meeting results are announced, attention should be paid to production restrictions. Key factors include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production slightly decreases, and market sentiment cools. Key factors include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand remain tight, and the fifth round of price increases has begun. Key factors include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment cools, and the futures price shows an obvious correction. Key factors include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is manageable, and attention should be paid to cost adjustments. Key factors include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment cools, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. Key factors include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Glass**: The futures price drop has a negative feedback effect, and spot sales and production start to weaken. Key factors are spot sales and production. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Soda Ash**: Freight costs have risen in the short - term, supporting the spot price. Key factors are soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The US non - farm payrolls data falling short of expectations has put pressure on copper prices. Key factors include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish - than - expected Fed policies, slower - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend [6]. - **Alumina**: There are still disruptions in Guinea's mines, and alumina prices have risen slightly. Key factors include slower - than - expected mine复产 and faster - than - expected electrolytic aluminum复产. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the inventory build - up level, and aluminum prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Zinc**: Supply and demand are in a state of surplus, and zinc prices are trending weakly in a volatile manner. Key factors include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend [6]. - **Lead**: There is still support at the cost end, and lead prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include supply - side disruptions, slower battery exports, and unexpected macro and geopolitical changes. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are showing wide - range volatility. Key factors include unexpected changes in Indonesia's policies and supply - chain releases. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are strong, and the stainless - steel futures price has closed higher. Key factors include Indonesia's policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Tin**: Supply remains tight, and tin prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment cools, and silicon prices are falling in a volatile manner. Key factors include unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and lithium carbonate prices will move in a volatile manner. Key factors include less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is volatile [6]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. Key factors include OPEC + production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and the cost end dominates the market rhythm. Key factors include the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Asphalt**: After price drops, asphalt valuations are falling along with crude oil. Key factor is unexpected demand. The short - term outlook is downward [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak. Key factors are crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are weakening along with crude oil. Key factors are crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [8]. - **Methanol**: There is a short - term divergence between inland and port markets, and methanol is moving in a volatile manner. Key factors include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Key factors are export policy trends and elimination of production capacity. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the port arrival rhythm, and inventory build - up is expected in August. Key factors are the inventory build - up inflection point at ports and device recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **PX**: Market sentiment cools, and prices are returning to fundamental - based pricing. Key factors are the maintenance rhythm of downstream PTA and seasonal changes in gasoline profits. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down briefly, and processing fees are still under pressure. Key factors are the planned production cuts of mainstream devices and the intensity of polyester joint production cuts. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand improvement is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory build - up. Key factors are the purchasing rhythm and operating conditions of downstream yarn mills. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: The production cut scale in August continues to exceed 20%, strengthening the support for processing fees. Key factor is the future operating conditions of bottle chips. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Propylene**: Weak propane suppresses the market, and it is moving in a short - term volatile manner. Key factors are oil prices and the domestic macro - situation. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **PP**: The anti - cut - throat - competition sentiment has changed, and PP is falling in a volatile manner. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Plastic**: Macro - support is weakening, and plastic is falling in a volatile manner. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment is improving, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Key factors are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality - based pricing, and the futures price is falling in a volatile manner. Key factors are expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot pressure is emerging, and caustic soda is trending weakly. Key factors are market sentiment, operating rates, and demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment is warming up, and palm oil is leading the rise in oils and fats. Key factors are US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [8]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Protein Meal**: The market continues the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. Key factors are US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment remains weak. Key factors are less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Live Pigs**: Supply exceeds demand, and prices remain low. Key factors are farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are stabilizing along with commodities. Key factors are production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The driving factors are unclear, and the futures price is showing amplitude - based volatility. Key factor is significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Paper Pulp**: It mainly follows the macro - situation, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. Key factors are macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - based quotations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices and spreads are rebounding. Key factors are demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Sugar**: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and sugar prices are under pressure. Key factor is imports. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Logs**: Bullish sentiment is strong, and log positions are increasing and prices are rising. Key factors are shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The four major stock index futures contracts all rose on August 4, 2025. The overall trend of stock index futures is in a volatile pattern, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing up [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: The closing prices of the underlying indexes such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased on August 4, with increases of 0.39%, 0.55%, 0.78%, and 1.04% respectively. The corresponding futures contracts also rose, with IF rising 0.52%, IH rising 0.54%, IC rising 0.92%, and IM rising 1.31% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 22,338 lots, 12,314 lots, 11,855 lots, and 23,743 lots respectively. The total open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 7,234 lots, 4,835 lots, 3,294 lots, and 1,172 lots respectively [2] - **Basis**: The basis of each futures contract varies, with some being positive and some negative, reflecting different market expectations [1] 3.2. Top 20 Member Position Changes - For most futures contracts, both long and short positions of the top 20 members showed certain changes. For example, in the IF2508 contract, the long - position increase was - 3303, and the net long - position change was - 6233; the short - position increase was - 2978, and the net short - position change was - 5185 [5] 3.3. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [6] - **Important Drivers**: The EU will suspend two trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months. The A - share market showed an upward trend on August 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.66%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.5%. The market volume decreased slightly compared to the previous day [6]