日本央行行长植田和男在国会表示，贸易政策的不确定性极高。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：贸易政策不确定性非常高。 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is that despite a temporary easing of trade tensions between the US and China, American products are still facing significant barriers in the Chinese market [1][8] - Chinese buyers are increasingly turning away from US liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and instead sourcing from the Middle East and Canada, with seven US LPG tankers redirected to Southeast Asia [3][6] - The US's oil exports to China have plummeted from a peak of 29 million barrels to just 3 million barrels, while imports from Canada have surged by 37% [3][4] Group 2 - The agricultural sector is also struggling, with US soybean exports to China dropping by 32% year-on-year, while Brazil and Argentina are rapidly increasing their market share [4][8] - China's new regulations favor domestic procurement of South American soybeans, enhancing transportation efficiency and reducing delivery times [4][6] - The uncertainty of US trade policies has led Chinese companies to lose confidence in importing American goods, as past agreements have been frequently violated [6][8] Group 3 - China is actively working to reduce its dependence on US imports to ensure supply chain security, diversifying its energy and agricultural sources [6][8] - China's renewable energy production is expected to exceed 30% by 2024, reducing reliance on imported energy [8] - The domestic soybean production in China is projected to increase by 15% in 2024, providing more options for sourcing agricultural products [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the term "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) on President Trump's psyche and its potential to cause market volatility amid ongoing trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Since May, trade policy uncertainty has significantly decreased from its peak in early April, but has recently surged again due to renewed tariff threats [2]. - Trump threatened a 50% tariff on the EU, which he later postponed, highlighting the erratic nature of his trade policies [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The "TACO" term encapsulates Trump's pattern of making aggressive tariff threats followed by retreats under market pressure, which has become a trading strategy on Wall Street [3]. - Despite Trump's threats causing market fluctuations, the U.S. stock market achieved its best May performance since 1997, indicating that traders are looking for rebound opportunities after his threats [3]. Group 3: Trump's Response to "TACO" - Trump perceives "TACO" as a personal affront, as it challenges his self-image as a strong negotiator and trader [4]. - Following a court ruling limiting his power to impose tariffs, Trump chose to appeal rather than back down, possibly influenced by the "chicken" label [5][6]. Group 4: Potential Consequences - Trump's determination to counter the "TACO" narrative may lead him to adopt a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations, potentially at the expense of economic stability [7].

Group 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The Trump administration's potential increase of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50% raises trade policy uncertainty [1][8] - The Oxford Economics economist Edward Allenby indicates that the courts are playing a larger role in determining tariff levels, which may further exacerbate trade policy uncertainty [1] Group 2: US-UK Economic Prosperity Agreement - The US and UK reached a non-legally binding "Economic Prosperity Agreement" (EPD) on May 8, which has raised concerns among international law experts regarding its terminology [3] - The EPD does not eliminate reciprocal tariffs but lowers tariffs on certain industries such as automobiles, steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals [3] Group 3: US-China Trade Negotiations - A joint statement from the US and China on May 12 outlines mutual commitments to cancel and modify tariffs, with the US agreeing to eliminate 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods [4] - China will also suspend or cancel non-tariff retaliatory measures against US goods [4] Group 4: Impact of Legal Challenges - The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump overstepped his authority regarding global tariffs, but the appeals court temporarily stayed this ruling, allowing tariffs to remain in effect [7] - The ongoing legal battles between the Trump administration and US federal courts are influencing the progress of international negotiations [5][7] Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - Countries like Japan, India, and South Korea are reassessing their negotiation strategies with the US following the suspension of tariffs on China [6] - India's plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth $1.91 billion indicates a shift in its trade stance under Prime Minister Modi [6]

Core Viewpoint - The term "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) has emerged in the financial circles of Wall Street, reflecting President Trump's inconsistent trade policies and potentially leading to increased market volatility [1][4][6]. Group 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Since May, uncertainty regarding trade policies has significantly decreased from its peak in early April, but has recently surged again due to the re-emergence of tariffs and restrictions [1]. - Trump's trade policies have shown a pattern of unpredictability, with threats of 50% tariffs on the EU followed by extensions of implementation deadlines [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The "TACO" acronym was coined by Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times to describe Trump's tendency to issue high-stakes threats only to back down under market pressure or negotiation [4]. - This pattern has become a market norm, where Trump's tariff threats often lead to stock price declines, but subsequent policy reversals result in rapid market rebounds [4][5]. - Despite the volatility caused by Trump's trade threats, the U.S. stock market recently recorded its best May performance since 1997, indicating that market participants are beginning to seek rebound opportunities following Trump's threats [5]. Group 3: Trump's Response to "TACO" - Trump's reaction to the "TACO" term has been intense, as he perceives it as an attack on his strength as a negotiator, which he finds unacceptable [4][6]. - A source indicated that Trump cannot tolerate the perception that his tariff adjustments reflect weakness, as he prides himself on being a tough negotiator [5]. - Following a court ruling that limited his authority to impose tariffs, Trump chose to appeal rather than back down, suggesting that he views "TACO" as a personal challenge [6]. Group 4: Implications for Future Trade Policies - Trump's determination to counter the "TACO" narrative may lead him to adopt a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations, potentially at the expense of economic and social considerations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis suggests that the Canadian economy's 2.2% GDP growth in the first quarter does not indicate positive developments in the new tariff era, and it is insufficient to compel the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates on June 4 [1] Economic Growth Analysis - The 2.2% GDP growth was primarily driven by pre-tariff effects on exports and inventory accumulation, while domestic demand remains weak [1] - Continuous monitoring of second-quarter data is necessary to determine if there is further deterioration in domestic demand [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The analyst expects the Bank of Canada to maintain a "dovish hold" policy but anticipates potential rate cuts in July, October, and December if signs of economic weakness persist [1] - If consumer spending and investment do not improve, combined with trade policy uncertainties, the central bank may need to implement multiple rate cuts to stimulate the economy [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Trends - The US economy experienced a contraction in the first quarter, marking the first negative growth in three years, complicating interest rate outlooks [1] - Australia's retail sales in April fell by 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected growth of 0.3%, indicating ongoing consumer weakness [2] - Retail sales in Australia for April reached AUD 37.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 3.8%, reflecting a decline in clothing retail due to unseasonably warm weather [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The San Francisco Fed President indicated the possibility of two rate cuts within the year, contingent on ensuring inflation returns to the 2% target [1] - The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) has lowered its consumption expectations for the year but remains hopeful for a combination effect from tax cuts, easing inflation, and lower borrowing costs [2] - Market expectations suggest a 60% probability of a rate cut at the RBA's July meeting, with analysts anticipating three rate cuts within the year, bringing the cash rate to a neutral level of 3.10% [3] Group 3: Currency Movements - The Australian dollar fell 0.3% against the US dollar to 0.6424 following the retail sales data release, with a cumulative decline of over 1% for the week [3] - The New Zealand dollar also dropped 0.3% against the US dollar, maintaining a recent trading range of 0.5847 to 0.6031 [3] - The New Zealand Reserve Bank cut rates to 3.25% but did not signal further easing, providing temporary support for the New Zealand dollar [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, acknowledges the ongoing positive actions of companies in price and wage setting, while also noting the downward revision of inflation expectations due to global growth pressures from trade policy uncertainties and the recent significant drop in oil prices [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan recognizes the sustained positive behavior of companies regarding price and wage setting [1] - The downward revision of inflation expectations reflects the impact of cost-push inflation easing and recent sharp declines in oil prices [1] - Trade policy uncertainties are contributing to pressures on global growth [1]

金十数据5月30日讯，外媒对企业信息披露的分析显示，特朗普的贸易战给企业造成了超过340亿美元的 销售损失和更高的成本，关税的持续不确定性使一些世界上最大的公司的决策陷入瘫痪，这一损失预计 还会上升。在美国、亚洲和欧洲，苹果、福特、保时捷和索尼等公司纷纷下调或大幅下调了利润预期， 绝大多数公司表示，特朗普贸易政策的不稳定性使其无法准确估算成本。这一估值囊括了标普500指数 中的32家公司、欧洲斯托克600指数中的3家公司和日本日经225指数中的21家公司。经济学家说，企业 的损失可能是企业迄今披露的金额的数倍。 特朗普关税给全球大企业制造了340亿美元的损失 ...