Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group with a target price of HKD 8.82, representing a potential upside of 48% from the current price of HKD 7.83 [2]. Core Views - The report indicates that CSPC's fundamentals have bottomed out, with major deal catalysts expected to materialize within the year. The company is anticipated to benefit from innovative drug launches and potential licensing agreements [4][16][17]. Financial Performance Summary - In 1Q25, CSPC achieved revenue of CNY 7.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22%. Finished drug revenue was CNY 5.5 billion (down 27% y-o-y), while API revenue increased by 15% to CNY 1.1 billion. The gross profit margin was 67.1%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][14][15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 1.5 billion, reflecting an 8% decline year-on-year. R&D expenses rose by 11% to CNY 1.3 billion, with an R&D expense ratio of 18.6% [3][14][15]. Segment Performance - The finished drug segment faced declines due to volume-based procurement (VBP) and National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) negotiations, with varying impacts across different therapeutic areas. Notably, the oncology segment saw a significant decline of 66% year-on-year [4][21]. - The API segment benefited from increased sales of vitamin C products, which saw a 25% year-on-year increase [4][15]. Future Prospects - Management is in discussions for multiple potential licensing deals, including the promising SYS6010 (EGFR ADC), with expectations of significant upfront payments and milestone payments totaling approximately USD 5 billion [5][17][18]. - The report highlights that SYS6010 is expected to be the largest out-licensing transaction in the second half of 2025, with anticipated upfront payments between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion [5][18]. Valuation - The revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been adjusted to CNY 31.3 billion and CNY 32.5 billion, respectively, reflecting the impacts of VBP and NRDL negotiations. The net profit forecasts for the same periods are CNY 5.6 billion and CNY 5.7 billion [8][19]. - The report assigns a P/E ratio of 18.2x for FY26, based on peer comparisons, leading to a target price of HKD 8.82 [8][19].

Summary of Aibo Medical Conference Call Company Overview - Aibo Medical started with artificial lens business and expanded into orthokeratology lenses and contact lenses, creating a diversified product matrix [2][4] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49% in revenue and 64% in net profit from 2018 to 2024 [2][5] Revenue Structure - Artificial lenses remain the main source of revenue but are declining in proportion, expected to account for 42% of revenue in 2024 [2][6] - Orthokeratology lenses are projected to increase to 17% of revenue by 2024 [2][6] - Contact lenses have rapidly increased their revenue share to 30% by 2024 [2][6] Market Expansion - Aibo Medical is actively expanding its overseas market, with current overseas revenue accounting for about 3%-4% [2][7] - The company has established sales networks in Europe, Asia, and Oceania, with plans to further expand into South America [2][7] Industry Potential - The domestic cataract surgery penetration rate is significantly lower than that of developed countries, indicating substantial market potential for artificial lenses [2][8] - The domestic market for artificial lenses is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2030 [2][8] Competitive Landscape - Aibo Medical is positioned as a leading domestic player in the artificial lens market, benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution due to centralized procurement [2][9] - The average price reduction from centralized procurement is around 60%, which is considered moderate [2][9] Innovation and Development - Aibo Medical has made significant technological breakthroughs in multi-focal artificial lenses, breaking the import monopoly [3][4] - The company has developed a strong product pipeline in the field of myopia prevention, with orthokeratology lenses becoming a key growth driver [10][12] Future Growth Expectations - Aibo Medical is expected to maintain steady growth, with profit growth projected to exceed 20% from 2025 to 2027 [2][15] - The company is anticipated to achieve revenues of approximately 4.7 billion yuan in 2025, 5.9 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.1 billion yuan in 2027 [2][15] Key Milestones in Myopia Prevention - The commercialization of orthokeratology lenses has progressed significantly since 2018, supported by policy, technological breakthroughs, and market promotion [10][11] Conclusion - Aibo Medical's diversified product offerings, strong market position, and innovative capabilities position it well for future growth in the ophthalmic medical device industry [2][15]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant pressure from centralized procurement and medical insurance cost control in Q1 2025, but is expected to see gradual improvement starting from Q2 2025, with projections of achieving three major BD licensing deals exceeding $5 billion each in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 30% year-on-year, excluding BD income, with the prescription drug segment declining by 37% [1] - Key therapeutic areas experienced declines: CNS down 30% due to medical insurance cost control and a 13% price reduction from negotiations; oncology core products saw a 66% drop in sales due to centralized procurement and channel price adjustments [1] - The company recorded 720 million RMB in licensing fee income, primarily from collaborations with AstraZeneca and BeiGene [1] - Revenue from raw materials increased by 15% year-on-year, driven by demand in the VC market and rising product prices, while functional foods and other business revenues fell by 9% due to declining demand and prices for caffeine [1] - The net profit margin improved by 3.1 percentage points to 21.1% due to high-margin licensing income and cost control efforts [1] Group 2: Future Outlook and BD Transactions - The company anticipates gradual improvement in performance starting Q2 2025, driven by increased promotion of Enbip, stabilization from procurement and inventory adjustments, rapid market entry of new products, and additional BD income recognition [2] - Management expects to achieve three large overseas licensing deals in 2025, each exceeding $5 billion, including a comprehensive technology platform licensing deal [2] - The company is advancing a Phase III study for EGFR ADC in second-line EGFR+ NSCLC in China and has initiated studies for third-line EGFR classic mutation NSCLC overseas, with further discussions with the FDA planned for June [2] - Based on optimistic BD income and operating expense forecasts, the company has raised its revenue projections for 2025-2027 by 1.5-7.5% and net profit forecasts by 8-13% [2] - The DCF target price has been adjusted to 7.2 HKD, corresponding to a 14.7x P/E ratio and 1.1x PEG for 2025, indicating that the current stock price reflects the anticipated pressure on 2025 performance and future BD transactions, with limited upside potential [2]

Group 1: Company Performance and Market Position - The revenue of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) increased by 24.49% year-on-year, with the five key TCM products growing by 31.44% year-to-date [3] - Sales revenue of Ganqi Bingmei Tablets rose by 38.84% during the reporting period, and by 54.36% year-to-date [3] - The company has received 32 recommendations from authoritative textbooks, clinical guidelines, and expert consensus for its five key TCM products, indicating strong market and clinical recognition [3] Group 2: Sales Strategy and Market Development - The current sales strategy focuses primarily on public hospitals, which account for approximately 70% of the market, while also developing grassroots hospitals, private hospitals, retail pharmacies, and e-commerce platforms [4] - The company aims to increase its market share in existing markets while exploring new growth opportunities through a multi-channel approach [4][7] Group 3: Research and Development Progress - As of May 2025, the company has integrated its R&D pipeline with Chengdu Aorui Pharmaceutical Co., gaining control over 7 innovative drug projects targeting various cancers and autoimmune diseases [5] - The lead project, ORIC-1940, is currently in clinical phases Ia/Ib, with plans to submit IND applications for two additional projects by the end of this year and the first quarter of next year [5][6] Group 4: Response to Market Challenges - The company acknowledges that centralized procurement has a significant impact on existing products but limited effect on new varieties, and it is exploring diversified development strategies to mitigate price reduction risks [6][7] - The company is actively expanding its product line to include special medical foods and nutrition products, enhancing its market competitiveness [7]

2024年，全球资产价格主要受地缘政治、美国大选、大国博弈以及经济下行等多重不确定因素影响。国内9月份以 来出台一系列政策组合拳，拉升消费内需，提振资本市场，缓和中美关系或是未来一年的市场焦点。 展望2025年的报告有很多，外资行当下比较一致的不确定是经济是否可以企稳，而比较确定的是全球利率会在未 来一年持续走低，尽管美国数据强劲，但降息周期基本是确定的，而医药行业也将迎来新的拐点。 如果拉长时间周期，医药几乎是长牛，全球医疗也一直在长牛，纳斯达克生物指数从2009年的650点，上涨至最新 4310点，期间涨幅度5.6倍，只不过近三年一直处于调整期，包括全球医疗指数。 申万医药指数近三年最高点回撤超过50%，XBI-标普生物指数高点回撤也接近50%，也就是说全球医疗过去三年 都在经历回撤，XBI和纳指生物几乎覆盖了全球顶级的生物科技型企业。 再叠加美联储加息，Biotech产业的负面反馈，也直接影响到一级市场估值，而一级市场的估值又直接决定了研发 的资本开支，所以过去这两年，有大量投资者抄底医药，最终都铩羽而归。 尽管部分噪声仍对葛兰的交易颇有微词，但从最新的业绩上来看，近六个月中欧医疗健康的收益已经表现出一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company held an online performance briefing on May 27, 2025, to discuss its 2024 annual and 2025 Q1 performance, addressing investor concerns and highlighting operational and financial conditions [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for 2024 increased by 2.86 percentage points to 69.23%, attributed to supply chain management optimization and product structure adjustments, despite a decline in operating revenue [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 244 million yuan, with overseas conventional product revenue reaching 47 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.51% [2]. Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is responding to industry challenges such as centralized procurement and DRG policies by optimizing sales strategies and enhancing service systems to maintain stable business development [4]. - The Metis6000 fully automated biochemical immunoassay line targets secondary and lower-tier hospitals, with over 70% of installations in these facilities, indicating a clear market positioning strategy [4][5]. Group 3: Product Development and Innovation - The Metis7000 fully automated biochemical immunoassay line is in the trial production phase, aiming to enhance performance and cost-effectiveness, with a broad testing menu covering nearly 400 items [5]. - The company plans to further increase the proportion of its chemiluminescence business, which accounted for 26.72% of self-produced product revenue in 2024, growing by 31.14% year-on-year [4]. Group 4: International Expansion - The company has established a presence in 66 countries and regions, holding over 2,500 overseas registration certificates and product import permits, with a focus on expanding its market share in Europe, Asia, and Latin America [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, including 奥赛康 (Aosaikang), 云顶新耀 (Cloudtop), 诺禾致源 (Nuohezhiyuan), and 诺诚健华 (Nocren) [1][5]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.78%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.96 percentage points, ranking first among 31 primary industries [1][8]. - The report highlights the approval of 诺诚健华's (Nocren) 坦昔妥单抗 (Tafasitamab) for the treatment of relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, marking a significant milestone in the industry [1][41]. - The report suggests that favorable policies are expected to lead to a gradual recovery in the industry, particularly in the formulation sector, which has been impacted by previous anti-corruption measures and centralized procurement [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's performance this week was a 1.78% increase, with chemical pharmaceuticals rising by 3.58%, biological products by 1.74%, medical services by 1.42%, and pharmaceutical commerce by 1.15% [1][8]. 2. Key News - The report mentions the approval of艾力斯's KRAS G12C inhibitor, which is aimed at treating advanced non-small cell lung cancer [28][29]. - 科济药业's CAR-T cell therapy for gastric cancer is set for priority review, indicating a potential breakthrough in treatment options [30][31]. 3. Key Announcements - 迪哲医药 announced the presentation of its innovative drugs DZD8586 and DZD6008 at the upcoming ASCO annual meeting, showcasing advancements in cancer treatment [34][35]. - 诺诚健华's Tafasitamab has received approval for treating relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, enhancing its product portfolio in the hematology field [41].

Core Viewpoint - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's recent IPO in Hong Kong marks a significant step towards internationalization, raising approximately 9.89 billion HKD, making it the largest domestic pharmaceutical IPO of the year [3][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical has been a leader in China's innovative drug sector, with a strong focus on international operations through licensing agreements, contributing significantly to its revenue [3][4]. - The company has completed 14 licensing agreements for innovative drugs, with 9 of these occurring in the last three years, indicating a rapid acceleration in its international expansion efforts [3][10]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The implementation of national drug procurement policies since 2016 has significantly impacted Heng Rui's revenue, particularly affecting its generics business, which accounted for 82% of its revenue in 2019 [8][9]. - The average price drop for drugs that entered procurement has exceeded 50%, leading to substantial revenue declines for Heng Rui, which saw its revenue peak at 27.735 billion CNY in 2020 before experiencing consecutive declines [9][16]. Group 3: Strategic Transformation - In response to market pressures, Heng Rui has shifted its focus towards innovative drugs, with the proportion of innovative drug revenue rising to 46.6% in 2023, surpassing 10 billion CNY for the first time [10][24]. - The company has significantly reduced its generics R&D projects, focusing instead on innovative drugs, with 57 clinical approvals for innovative drugs compared to only 1 for generics in 2024 [24][25]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Heng Rui's revenue dropped by 6.59% in 2021, marking its first decline post-IPO, largely due to the impact of procurement policies [16][18]. - The company's net profit increased by 32.98% in 2024, attributed to recognizing a 1.6 billion EUR upfront payment from Merck for licensing agreements [59]. Group 5: Internationalization Strategy - Heng Rui's internationalization strategy includes various approaches such as direct licensing and joint development with foreign companies, aiming to enhance its global market presence [57][58]. - The company has engaged in several business development (BD) transactions, including a notable partnership with Merck, which could yield significant future revenues [59][60]. Group 6: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for innovative drugs is intensifying, with rivals like BeiGene achieving significant sales milestones, highlighting the need for Heng Rui to innovate and differentiate its product offerings [28][31]. - Heng Rui's leading product, the PD-1 inhibitor, has faced pricing pressures due to increased competition, necessitating ongoing investment in marketing and physician education to maintain market share [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - Heng Rui Medicine has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately HKD 98.9 billion, marking the largest pharmaceutical IPO in China this year. This move is seen as a significant step towards internationalization for the company [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Heng Rui Medicine is recognized as a leading company in China's innovative drug sector, with a strong pipeline of products. The company has primarily relied on licensing agreements for international expansion, with 14 licensing deals completed, 9 of which occurred in the last three years [2][3]. - The company has not engaged in any financing activities since its A-share IPO in 2000, making this recent listing a notable event in its history [3]. Group 2: Impact of Policy Changes - The implementation of national drug procurement policies since 2016 has significantly impacted Heng Rui's operations, particularly affecting its revenue from generic drugs, which constituted 82% of its income in 2019 [7][8]. - The average price drop for drugs that have undergone procurement has exceeded 50%, creating substantial pressure on the company's profitability [7][21]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Following a peak revenue of CNY 27.735 billion in 2020, Heng Rui's income has declined for two consecutive years due to procurement policies, but it began to stabilize in 2023 [8]. - The company's revenue from innovative drugs has increased to 46.6% of total revenue in 2023, surpassing CNY 10 billion for the first time [8][27]. Group 4: Strategic Transformation - Heng Rui has shifted its focus from generic drugs to innovative drug development, significantly reducing its generic drug projects and increasing its innovative drug pipeline [27][29]. - The company has established research centers globally to monitor trends and gather patent information, although it lacks a standout blockbuster product [36]. Group 5: International Expansion Strategies - Heng Rui's international strategy includes three main approaches: self-expansion, direct licensing, and joint ventures. The company has increasingly opted for direct licensing to reduce costs and risks [57][65]. - Recent licensing agreements have generated significant upfront payments, such as a EUR 160 million deal with Merck, contributing to a 32.98% increase in net profit in 2024 [66]. Group 6: Challenges and Future Outlook - The company faces challenges in the competitive landscape of innovative drugs, particularly in the PD-1 market, where it must navigate pricing pressures and market acceptance [40][43]. - Heng Rui's recent foray into NewCo transactions, which involve complex asset and equity financing, indicates a strategic pivot towards leveraging external capital for growth [68][69].

证 券 研 究 报 告 春立医疗（688236）2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 806 | 1,051 | 1,318 | 1,604 | | 同比增速(%) | -33.3% | 30.5% | 25.4% | 21.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 125 | 219 | 279 | 348 | | 同比增速(%) | -55.0% | 74.5% | 27.9% | 24.9% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.73 | 0.91 | | 市盈率(倍) | 47 | 27 | 21 | 17 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 5 月 16 日收盘价 公司研究 医疗器械 2025 年 05 月 18 日 当前价：15.15 元 集采影响逐渐出清，持续拓 ...