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7月31日电,加拿大5月GDP环比下降0.1%,预期下降0.1%;同比增长1.2%,预期增长1.1%。
news flash· 2025-07-31 12:33
智通财经7月31日电,加拿大5月GDP环比下降0.1%,预期下降0.1%;同比增长1.2%,预期增长1.1%。 ...
提醒:北京时间20:30 将公布美国6月PCE物价指数、美国7月26日当周首次申请失业救济人数、加拿大5月GDP
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-31 12:30
(文章来源:华尔街见闻) 提醒:北京时间20:30,将公布美国6月PCE物价指数、美国7月26日当周首次申请失业救济人数、加拿 大5月GDP。 ...
提醒:北京时间20:30,将公布美国6月PCE物价指数、美国7月26日当周首次申请失业救济人数、加拿大5月GDP。
news flash· 2025-07-31 12:23
提醒:北京时间20:30,将公布美国6月PCE物价指数、美国7月26日当周首次申请失业救济人数、加拿 大5月GDP。 ...
Former St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard: The policy rate is 'a little bit high' for the situation
CNBC Television· 2025-07-31 10:59
dissenters. That's kind of interesting I guess. But there are Trump appointees, former Saint Louis Fed President James Bullard, he's dean of the Purdue University Business School.James, I guess we'll talk about the dissent. I don't know if it's really that. I guess it's interesting since it's been since 1993.But what do you make of the GDP report in light of the prior quarter being actual. You know, it's obviously being whipsawed by by tariffs and imports. But was there can you just say, hey, that's great, ...
6月经济数据表现分化
Capital Securities· 2025-07-31 10:42
Group 1: Economic Growth - In Q2, China's actual GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with a target of around 5% for the full year, indicating manageable pressure to meet this goal[3] - The GDP deflator index fell to -1.2% in Q2, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of negative growth, suggesting ongoing price pressures[9] - The contribution of consumption to GDP growth in Q2 was 2.7 percentage points, making it the primary driver of economic expansion[10] Group 2: Industrial Performance - In June, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 5.5%[15] - The export delivery value of large-scale industrial enterprises rose by 4% in June, a 3.4 percentage point increase from the previous value[15] - Key sectors such as automotive manufacturing and electronic equipment manufacturing saw year-on-year growth rates of 11.4% and 11.0%, respectively[15] Group 3: Investment Trends - From January to June, fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8%, down 0.9 percentage points, with significant declines in manufacturing and infrastructure investment[21] - Manufacturing investment growth decreased to 7.5%, while infrastructure investment fell to 8.9%, with real estate investment declining by 11.5%[21] - Water management sector investment growth dropped significantly, down 11.2 percentage points to 15.4% year-on-year[25] Group 4: Consumer Spending - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[29] - Restaurant revenue in June recorded a year-on-year increase of only 0.9%, a drop of 5 percentage points from the previous value[29] - The retail sales of household appliances and communication equipment fell by 20.6% and 19.1%, respectively, indicating weakening consumer demand[29] Group 5: Risk Factors - Potential risks include changes in the external environment and the possibility that the "old-for-new" policy may not meet expectations[34]
Why some Republicans aren't joining Trump's call for Fed rate cuts
MSNBC· 2025-07-31 10:08
The US economy rebounded in the second fiscal quarter of the year, growing at a better thanex expected rate despite President Trump's tariffs. The country's GDP grew at a 3% pace from April to June, reversing a.5 decline from the previous quarter. Consumer spending also rose.But the growth comes despite a sharp decline in imports, which dropped by 30.3%. The Wall Street Journal editorial board called it the weirdest GDP report ever, while President Trump touted the growth as a success. all expectations.They ...
美国GDP虚假繁荣:进口暴跌推高增长,但核心需求增速大幅放缓
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-31 08:08
报告警告,这种贸易数据的剧烈波动掩盖了更深层次的经济放缓趋势。消费增长已从2024年的强劲水平明显减弱,住宅和商业投资也表现疲软, 显示家庭和企业支出正在同时降温。 贸易波动掩盖经济实质放缓 大摩指出,二季度3.0%的GDP增长表面上看似强劲,但这一数据被贸易流动的异常波动严重扭曲。进口在第一季度因关税预期而激增37.9%后, 第二季度急剧回落30.3%,净贸易为GDP贡献了5.0个百分点的增长。 美国二季度GDP表面增长亮眼,但深入分析显示这种繁荣具有欺骗性。进口量的大幅萎缩人为地抬高了整体数据,掩盖了国内需求明显放缓的事 实。 据追风交易台,摩根士丹利最新报告指出,美国二季度GDP环比折年率增长3.0%,超出市场预期的2.5%,但这一数据因贸易因素被严重扭曲。实 际进口在第二季度骤降30.3%,这在很大程度上抵消了一季度37.9%的激增,人为提振了GDP整体数据。 作为反映经济内生动力的核心指标,国内私人最终采购增速已从前一年的2.7%骤降至1.2%,表明美国经济内部已经显现冷却迹象。 "关注最终国内销售数据,可以看出经济活动正在放缓,"摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen指出,"第二季度 ...
海外观察:美国2025年二季度GDP数据点评:美国经济增速与库存周期的反转
Donghai Securities· 2025-07-31 07:45
Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 showed a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate of 3.0%, exceeding the expected 2.4% and rebounding from a previous decline of -0.5% in Q1[2] - Year-on-year GDP growth remained stable at 2.0%, consistent with the previous quarter[2] Consumption and Trade - Personal consumption increased from a previous annualized rate of 0.5% in Q1 to 1.4% in Q2, contributing 1.0 percentage points to GDP growth[2] - Net exports improved significantly due to a sharp decline in imports, which fell from an annualized rate of 37.9% to -30.3%, raising the contribution to GDP from -4.6% to 5.0%[2] Investment Trends - Private investment saw a dramatic decline, with an annualized rate dropping from 23.8% in Q1 to -15.6% in Q2, negatively impacting GDP by 3.1 percentage points[2] - Residential investment continued to decline, with an annualized rate of -4.6% in Q2, reflecting ongoing pressures from high mortgage rates and immigration policies[2] Government Spending - Government spending rebounded to an annualized growth rate of 0.4% in Q2, driven primarily by increased defense spending and state/local government hiring[2] - State and local government expenditures rose from 2.0% in Q1 to 3.0% in Q2, indicating a positive trend in public sector investment[2] Market Reactions - Following the GDP release, market expectations for interest rate cuts diminished, leading to an increase in the U.S. dollar index and bond yields, while gold prices fell[2] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved, reaching 61.8 in July, indicating a recovery in consumer confidence[2]