Core Viewpoint - The financial storm triggered by the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes reflects a complex interplay of political and economic factors, impacting global investor sentiment and market stability [1][15]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Meeting Minutes - The meeting minutes released ambiguous signals, acknowledging signs of weakness in the job market while emphasizing inflation risks, leading to a sharp decline in market expectations for a rate cut [3][9]. - The stock market, particularly technology giants, experienced significant losses, with market capitalization evaporating by tens of billions overnight [3]. Group 2: Political Interference - President Trump's public criticism targeted Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, accusing her of past mortgage mismanagement, which is seen as an attempt to pressure her resignation and weaken the cautious stance on rate cuts [4][5]. - This intervention challenges the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating a desire to exert political control over monetary policy [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The uncertainty created by the conflict between the President and the Federal Reserve led to a decline in the dollar, while gold prices surged as investors sought safe-haven assets [6]. - Some investors anticipated the turmoil and began positioning themselves for potential rate cuts while also implementing risk management strategies [11]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Trump's strategy to influence the Federal Reserve's personnel aims to align monetary policy with his political and economic interests, but the independence of the Federal Reserve is deeply rooted and not easily undermined [9][13]. - The current economic landscape, characterized by high inflation and a weak job market, complicates the feasibility of rate cuts [9].

Group 1 - President Trump has threatened to dismiss Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook if she does not resign due to allegations of mortgage fraud [1] - Trump has been critical of the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and has previously targeted Fed Chair Jerome Powell for various reasons [1] - Cook has stated she will not resign under pressure, despite the allegations made against her [1] Group 2 - If Cook is forced to leave the Federal Reserve, Trump would have the opportunity to exert more influence over U.S. monetary policy, potentially undermining the independence of the central bank [2] - Should a vacancy arise, four out of seven Federal Reserve Board seats would be appointed by Trump, increasing his control over the board [2] - A recent incident involved a Trump supporter confronting Cook at a public event, highlighting the political tensions surrounding her position [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, under Chairman Powell, is facing unprecedented political pressure from former President Trump, which complicates its monetary policy decisions amid mixed economic data [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium may reveal a new monetary policy framework, simplifying the complex principles introduced five years ago [1]. - Some analysts predict a compromise in interest rate policy, with Powell potentially opening the door for a rate cut in September due to weak job growth, but without making further commitments until inflation concerns are addressed [2]. - Kansas City Fed President George suggests that a rate cut could send a dangerous signal to consumers regarding inflation control, emphasizing the importance of maintaining credibility in anchoring inflation expectations [1][2]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Independence - Trump's increasing political pressure on the Fed is seen as a threat to its independence, with any decision interpreted as either a concession to Trump or an unreasonable defiance [2][3]. - Trump has launched personal attacks on Powell and has called for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, alleging conflicts of interest, although Cook has stated she will not resign due to "bullying" [3]. - The potential resignation or forced departure of Fed governors could give the White House greater influence over monetary policy and the appointment of regional Fed presidents, raising concerns about the erosion of the Fed's independence [4].

Core Viewpoint - Lisa Cook, the first Black woman on the Federal Reserve Board, is facing allegations of mortgage fraud, which have drawn significant media attention and political pressure, particularly from the Trump administration [1][4]. Group 1: Allegations and Political Pressure - Cook has been accused of mortgage fraud by a Trump administration official, who plans to submit a criminal investigation request to the Department of Justice [1]. - President Trump has publicly called for Cook's resignation, although she has stated she will cooperate with the investigation but has no plans to resign from the Federal Reserve Board, where her term lasts until 2038 [1][4]. - The allegations come at a critical time as the Trump administration is pressuring the Federal Reserve and its Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates [1][4]. Group 2: Cook's Background and Influence - Cook is recognized as a rigorous academic researcher and has been influential in discussions about monetary policy, particularly regarding the impact of artificial intelligence [2]. - She has a strong academic background, having graduated from Spelman College and earned a Ph.D. in economics from the University of California, Berkeley [3]. - Cook's notable research has highlighted the decline in patents among Black innovators during periods of racial violence, which garnered attention from prominent economists [3]. Group 3: Legal Context and Implications - The specific allegations involve Cook declaring properties as her primary residence to secure lower mortgage rates, which is under scrutiny for potential fraud [5][6]. - Legal experts note that cases of mortgage fraud based solely on misrepresentation of primary residence status are rare, with only 2-3% of mortgages showing fraudulent self-reported claims from 2005 to 2017 [6]. - The political context suggests that the allegations may be part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to install allies within the Federal Reserve [4][7]. Group 4: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - The situation is occurring during a sensitive period of power restructuring within the Federal Reserve, with recent resignations and new appointments potentially shifting the balance of power [7]. - If Cook were to resign, it could allow Trump-appointed members to dominate the board, fundamentally altering interest rate decision-making [7]. - Concerns are rising about the potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence due to political pressures, which could undermine its role as an economic stabilizer [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, the procedures and rules of the Chairmanship change, and the potential impacts if the Fed's independence is weakened. Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent are considering new candidates, which has raised concerns about the "independence" of monetary policy [1][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Candidates and Their Backgrounds - **Three main contenders**: Waller, Hassett, and Warsh are the leading candidates. As of August 21, according to Polymarket, Waller has a 32.0% probability of being nominated, followed by Warsh (10.7%) and Hassett (10.0%). According to Kalshi, Waller has a 29% chance, Hassett 19%, and Warsh 18% [2][10]. - **Christopher Waller**: A current Fed governor and a dove. He is familiar with the Fed's operations, was appointed by Trump, and his policy views align with the White House. His election may raise questions about the central bank's independence [16]. - **Kevin Hassett**: The current director of the White House National Economic Council. He has rich government experience but relatively less monetary policy experience and is considered too close to the government [17][18]. - **Kevin Warsh**: A former Fed governor, regarded as a dove, and supports Trump's call for rate cuts. He has extensive experience in various fields but lacks direct access to Trump [21][22]. - **Other candidates and potential "dark horse"**: Other candidates include current Fed officials, financial institution professionals, former Fed officials, and former government economists. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages. Milan, recently nominated as a Fed governor, may be a "dark horse." He advocates for reciprocal tariffs, has a dovish stance on interest rates, and wants to weaken the Fed's independence, which has raised concerns about his impact on the central bank's credibility [24][27]. 3.2 Procedures and Rules for the Fed Chairmanship Change The President usually announces the nominee 3 - 6 months in advance, with an average of 4.08 months from nomination to inauguration. Trump is expected to announce the nominee between December this year and January next year. If announced earlier, it may raise concerns about setting up a "shadow Fed." After Powell steps down as Chair, he is likely to resign as a governor. Trump can influence the Fed's policy by nominating new governors, but most current governors' terms extend beyond 2028, making it difficult for him to interfere [29][31]. 3.3 Potential Impacts of Weakened Fed Independence - **Increased stagflation risk**: Historical precedents show that when the Fed loses independence, stagflation can occur. If Trump appoints a closely - affiliated Fed Chair, the market may worry about repeating the 1973 - 1974 stagflation scenario [34]. - **Intensified fiscal concerns**: The Fed losing independence may turn it into a tool for the Treasury to issue debt, exacerbating concerns about the debt crisis given the high deficit and rising debt in the US [36]. - **Weakened US dollar status and capital flight**: The dollar's status as the world's reserve currency depends on the Fed's credibility. If the Fed is seen as politically controlled, investors may shift from dollar - denominated assets to alternatives like gold, leading to a vicious cycle [38]. - **US stock, bond, and currency sell - off**: A "black swan" event where the Fed is controlled by the White House could lead to a sell - off in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar, as demonstrated by the market reaction in July when there were rumors of firing Powell [38].

今日周五(8月22日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于9229一线下方，今日开盘于9187元/千克，截至发稿，白银期货暂报 9209元/千克，上涨0.55%，最高触及9254元/千克，最低下探9187元/千克，目前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走 势。 美联储正站在一个关键的十字路口。一方面，劳动力市场放缓的迹象和特朗普的降息压力要求货币政策更宽松；另一 方面，通胀率仍高于目标，且服务业通胀的上升为降息敲响了警钟。博斯蒂克、施密德、古尔斯比和柯林斯的不同表 态反映了美联储内部对经济前景的分歧：是优先抗击通胀，还是适度宽松以支持经济增长？这一问题不仅关乎美国经 济，也将对全球市场产生深远影响。 杰克逊霍尔研讨会为美联储提供了一个重要舞台，鲍威尔的讲话可能为市场提供方向感。然而，无论美联储最终选择 何种路径，政策的连续性和稳定性都将是关键。正如博斯蒂克所言，反复无常的政策可能动摇公众对美联储的信心， 而施密德和古尔斯比的谨慎态度则提醒我们，通胀的"最后一公里"往往最为艰难。柯林斯的开放态度则为市场保留了 一线希望，降息的可能性并未完全消失。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银周四走出上涨空间，当前收高至9270，趋势力度 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is expected to outline the Fed's economic outlook and policy framework, which will significantly influence the Fed's future and Powell's political legacy [2][3]. Policy Path Planning - Powell's speech titled "Economic Outlook and Framework Assessment" indicates a focus on macroeconomic conditions and long-term policy goals, part of a review conducted every five years [3]. - Markets anticipate Powell will lay the groundwork for a potential interest rate cut in September, as he has hinted at significant policy shifts in previous Jackson Hole speeches [4]. - Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle suggests Powell may not explicitly signal a September rate cut but will likely indicate support for it, depending on upcoming data [5]. Independence Maintenance - President Trump has consistently criticized Powell and the Fed, pushing for lower interest rates, but the recent attacks have escalated beyond monetary policy [7][8]. - Powell may use this speech to defend the Fed's independence, emphasizing its importance for public benefit [8]. Framework Modification - Powell is expected to discuss modifications to the Fed's policy framework, particularly the potential abandonment of the "average inflation targeting" strategy established before the pandemic [9]. - The previous framework allowed for tolerating inflation above 2% to compensate for periods of low inflation, but recent inflation trends may prompt a return to a more proactive stance [9]. - Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist anticipates Powell will highlight changes to the Fed's long-term goals, advocating for a return to a "preemptive" approach to inflation [9]. Market Reactions - Traders are pricing in a 75% chance of a rate cut in September, with expectations for at least two additional 25 basis point cuts by year-end [11]. - Investors are closely monitoring Powell's speech for new clues regarding the rate cut path, which could significantly impact gold prices [12].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to emphasize the independence of the Fed during his upcoming speech, amidst significant political pressure and scrutiny from the Trump administration [1][2][3] Political and Policy Context - Powell's speech is anticipated to address the Fed's independence, especially given the political challenges he faces, including ongoing criticism from President Trump [2][3] - The theme of the speech, "Economic Outlook and Framework Assessment," suggests Powell will discuss macroeconomic conditions and long-term policy goals, which are evaluated every five years [3][4] - Market expectations indicate that Powell may pave the way for a rate cut in September, as his past speeches have often signaled major policy shifts [3][4] Market Reactions and Expectations - Analysts predict that Powell will not explicitly signal a September rate cut but will indicate potential support for such a move [4] - The Kansas City Fed President has stated that more data is needed before supporting a rate cut, reflecting a cautious stance among some Fed members [4][5] - The labor market's condition and the impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation will be critical points in Powell's address [4][5] Inflation and Employment Dynamics - Recent labor statistics show weak job growth, yet many policymakers still describe the labor market as "robust," indicating a lack of urgency for rate cuts [5] - Concerns about inflation are prevalent among Fed members, with some expressing skepticism about the necessity of a September rate cut, which could provoke political backlash [5][6] - Powell is likely to maintain a cautious approach and avoid pre-committing to a September rate cut, focusing instead on a robust long-term policy framework [5][6] Framework Adjustments - The Fed's 2020 adoption of a "flexible average inflation targeting" framework may be revised, as it has been linked to the current inflation surge [5][6] - Economists expect Powell to advocate for a return to a more preventive policy stance, reflecting the realities of the current economic environment [6]

近期，贸易、地缘局势缓和，市场避险需求下降。另外，由于美国劳动力市场降温，叠加通胀温和反 弹，市场已基本定价美联储9月降息25个基点的预期，白银短期或陷入高位震荡整理。仍需等待美联储 政策预期进一步明朗化，重点关注8月美国的通胀和非农就业报告情况，不排除9月降息不及预期的可 能。 美国降息必要性上升 根据美国联邦基金利率期货隐含的降息预期，明年上半年美联储利率可能降至3.3%~3.5%，目前联邦基 金利率为4.25%~4.5%，即有1个百分点的降息空间。预计美联储将在9月和12月议息会议上分别降息25 个基点，明年上半年仍有两次降息的可能性，但降息预期能否落地更多取决于数据的表现。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 美联储独立性担忧加剧 特朗普再次上台以来，曾多次在个人社交媒体和公开场合批评美联储主席鲍威尔，指责美联储政策引发 通胀且没有很好解决通胀问题，在降息问题上行动迟缓等。近日，特朗普对美联储持续施压，喊话美联 储理事库克立即辞职。 随着美联储主席鲍威尔任期临近结束，市场对美联储政策独立性的担忧可能进一步发 ...

美联储独立性担忧加剧 近期，贸易、地缘局势缓和，市场避险需求下降。另外，由于美国劳动力市场降温，叠加通胀温和反 弹，市场已基本定价美联储9月降息25个基点的预期，白银短期或陷入高位震荡整理。仍需等待美联储 政策预期进一步明朗化，重点关注8月美国的通胀和非农就业报告情况，不排除9月降息不及预期的可 能。 美国降息必要性上升 美国近几个月的通胀并未出现此前市场预期的由于关税政策影响大幅上升的情况，通胀整体表现温和。 美国7月CPI环比增0.2%，较6月放缓0.1个百分点，同比增2.7%，与前值持平；核心CPI环比增0.3%，较 6月增加0.1个百分点，同比增3.1%，高于前值和市场预期，整体呈现出名义增速放缓，但核心增速上涨 的特征。虽然关税给美国带来了输入性通胀的压力，但其主要作用于占比较小的核心商品领域，而美国 以服务消费为主，因此其长期通胀水平仍然取决于核心服务。预计美国长期通胀维持高位震荡，但下半 年通胀预期仍有回落可能，美联储 9月降息的压力降低。 疫情之后，美国劳动力市场表现出一定韧性。今年上半年以来，美国新增非农就业人数有所下调，一方 面经济增长放缓，另一方面移民、政府部门裁员政策对就业也有冲击。2 ...