农产品早报 2025-06-03 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 【重要资讯】 节日期间美豆回落为主，因美豆油跌幅较多，且美豆种植及天气情况偏好。国内豆粕现货稳定，华东低 价报 2830 元/吨。后续豆粕、大豆预计仍然维持累库局面，因前期到港开机延迟，近期下游在油厂开机 后补库，表观消费较好，预计油厂库存压力延迟到 6 月中下旬或 7 月显现。 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，，覆盖绝大部分产区，天气暂无明显问题。巴西升贴水近期有所上调，对 冲美豆跌幅，大豆到港成本小幅下行。25/26 年度美豆面积下降，单产的扰动使得总产量容易下调，美 豆如果没有宏观走弱的驱动，新年度可能是震荡筑底的过程。不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴 油需求、全球宏观、贸易战的进 ...

Group 1 - The report does not mention the investment rating for the industry [1] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the prices of different agricultural products show different trends, with corn expected to fluctuate upward, soybean meal to fluctuate and rise, oils and fats to fluctuate weakly, eggs to fluctuate weakly, and live pigs to fluctuate [1] Group 3 - The prices of different agricultural products show different trends. Corn prices are expected to fluctuate upward, with short - term fluctuations ending and prices resuming upward. In the northeast region, mainstream corn prices rose slightly, and some deep - processing enterprises also raised their purchase prices. In North China, corn prices were generally stable with a slight weakness [1] - Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate and rise. CBOT soybeans closed higher on Thursday, but favorable weather in the central United States limited price increases. Domestic soybean meal showed a narrow - range fluctuation, with funds mainly flowing out. The supply pressure of soybean meal is postponed to mid - June [1] - Oils and fats prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. BMD palm oil rose for the fifth consecutive day on Thursday, and high - frequency data previously showed that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% - 11.6% month - on - month. Indonesia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for June. Domestic palm oil increased in positions and reached a two - week high [1] - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Egg futures prices rebounded from a low level on Thursday. Spot egg prices were stable, with supply increasing until August. The supply - demand fundamentals are bearish, and egg prices are expected to remain weak until there is an unexpectedly large increase in culling. However, egg prices in low - price areas have fallen below the cost line, so the downward space for later egg prices is relatively limited [1] - Live pig prices are expected to fluctuate. On Thursday, the live pig futures contract 2509 broke through the integer support of 13,500 yuan, then rebounded due to the positive sentiment of the macro and surrounding commodities. Spot pig prices were stable with a slight strength this week [1] Group 4 - US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows that private exporters reported selling 101,096 tons of corn to unknown destinations and 104,000 tons to Mexico, all for the 2024/2025 sales year [3] - White House trade advisor Navarro said that there is undoubtedly an economic emergency in the US, and the government has multiple options on trade issues. The government has a high chance of winning in court rulings and appeals regarding trade issues [3] - Agricultural information agency Sovecon reported that Russia's grain exports in 2025/26 are expected to be 4.94 billion tons, lower than 5.02 billion tons in 2024/25. Russia's wheat exports in 2025/26 are expected to be 4.08 billion tons, an increase of 110 million tons compared to the previous year [3] - Malaysian Minister of Plantation and Commodities announced that Malaysia will increase the biodiesel blending ratio for ground - transport vehicles from B10 to B20 [3]

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月30日 | | 王凌辉 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | 5月29日 | 5月28日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8100 | 8100 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 Y2509 7478 | 7492 | -14 | -0.19% | | 星差 Y2509 622 | ୧୦୫ | 14 | 2.30% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 09+300 | 09+300 | 0 | - | | 仓单 17152 | 17217 | -65 | -0.38% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | 5月29日 | 5月28日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8700 | 8600 | 100 | 1.16% | | 期价 P2509 8082 | 8000 | 82 | 1.03% | | ୧18 某差 P2509 | 600 | 18 | 3.00% | | 广东5月 现货墓差报价 09+550 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and red date industries is neutral [3][8] Core Viewpoints - For the apple industry, the current expectation of apple production reduction weakens during the bagging stage, but weather still has an impact. In the short term, apple prices are expected to fluctuate. The substitution effect of summer fruits is increasing, and apple sales are slowing down. However, the remaining apple inventory is at a five - year low, with low de - stocking pressure. During the Dragon Boat Festival, the trading of in - warehouse apple supplies may remain stable [2][3] - For the red date industry, the current absolute price is at a low level, and it is in the critical growth period of new - season red dates, attracting high capital attention. The market is affected by factors such as the over - exhaustion of the 2024 production season and weather changes. In the short term, red date prices will also fluctuate [7][8] Summary by Directory Apple Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,642 yuan/ton, a change of +60 yuan/ton (+0.79%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was AP10 + 558, a change of - 60 from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot basis was AP10 + 1958, a change of - 60 from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose yesterday. The sales in production areas were slow, and the inventory in main production areas was at a low level compared to the same period. With the listing of seasonal fruits, apple consumption was average. The出库 of late Fuji in production areas last week was slightly slower than before. In the western region, the supply of merchants' goods was concentrated, and the number of customers decreased. In Shandong, the overall trading decreased slightly, and merchants replenished goods as needed. The remaining apple inventory is at a five - year low, with low de - stocking pressure. The price of high - quality apples was firm. The substitution effect of summer fruits is increasing, and apple sales are slowing down. During the Dragon Boat Festival, the trading of in - warehouse apple supplies may remain stable. New - season apples are entering the bagging stage, and rainfall in the western region has alleviated the drought to some extent [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. With the weakening of the production reduction expectation during the bagging stage and potential weather disturbances, apple prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] Red Date Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2509 contract yesterday was 8,675 yuan/ton, a change of - 230 yuan/ton (-2.58%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was CJ09 - 375, a change of +230 from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The red date futures price dropped significantly yesterday. After the Dragon Boat Festival stocking ended, the demand for red dates and other tonics decreased with the increase in temperature. With high inventory, the sales pressure was prominent. The current futures and spot prices are at historical lows. Last week, the supply from Xinjiang was transferred to the inland, and the arrival of goods in the sales areas increased. The trading atmosphere weakened after the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, and the sample inventory increased slightly. The jujube trees in Xinjiang are in the early flowering stage. Due to the large production in the 2024 season, there are potential problems in the growth of new - season red dates, and the growth during the flowering and fruit - setting stage may bring market opportunities [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Given the low price and the critical growth period of new - season red dates, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of factors such as the over - exhaustion of the 2024 production season and weather changes on the growth of new - season red dates. Red date prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures have stopped falling and stabilized around 3,800 ringgit, facing resistance at the annual line near 8,100. Domestic palm oil futures have rebounded, but still face resistance. For soybeans, the sideways movement of NYMEX crude oil has affected US soybean prices. With the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, domestic demand is weak, and the basis price is expected to decline. Overall, palm oil may rebound, while domestic soybean oil prices are under pressure [1]. Meal - US soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and the supply pressure from Brazil continues. China has suspended imports from the US, and the domestic soybean supply will be abundant in the later period. Although the current inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is low and the basis is expected to stabilize, the two meals are expected to maintain a volatile structure, and soybean meal may face short - term callback risks [2]. Corn - The supply and price of corn depend on traders' selling rhythm. Currently, prices are stable with strong bottom support. In the short term, the market is affected by wheat listing and price changes, and the corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation. In the long term, supply tightening and increased demand will support price increases [4]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs fluctuates slightly. Supply is abundant, and demand improvement is limited. Although there is some support before the Dragon Boat Festival, prices are difficult to rise. The market does not have a basis for a sharp decline, but the upward drive is also weak [7]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures have fallen to a four - year low due to improved global production prospects. Although the current lack of large - scale imports supports domestic sugar prices, future supply increases will suppress prices, and sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile [11]. Cotton - The downstream demand for cotton has resilience, and the basis of cotton spot is strong, providing support for cotton prices. However, the long - term demand outlook is not strong, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [13]. Eggs - The supply of eggs in the country is relatively sufficient, which has a negative impact on prices. Demand may first decrease and then increase, and egg prices are expected to first fall and then rise slightly this week [14]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On May 28, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7,492 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; the futures price of P2509 was 8,000 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,600 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the futures price of OI509 was 9,073 yuan/ton, down 0.40% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of Y2509 increased by 3.05%, the basis of P2509 increased by 5.26%, and the basis of OI509 increased by 11.89%. The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil decreased by 35.71%, the 09 - 01 spread of palm oil decreased by 37.5%, and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 7.14% [1]. Meal - **Prices**: On May 29, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 2,961 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,530 yuan/ton, up 0.40%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2,604 yuan/ton, up 0.19% [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of M2509 increased by 19.23%, the basis of RM2509 increased by 6.33%. The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal increased by 7.14%, the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal increased by 1.98% [2]. Corn - **Prices**: On May 29, the futures price of corn 2507 was 2,325 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The spot price of corn in Jinzhou Port was 2,320 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The 7 - 9 spread of corn was - 24 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import profit was 347 yuan/ton, up 4.75%. The 7 - 9 spread of corn starch was - 60 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the starch - corn spread increased by 3.05% [4]. Pigs - **Prices**: On May 29, the futures price of live pigs 2507 was 13,260 yuan/ton, up 0.08%; the futures price of 2509 was 13,560 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Henan was 14,530 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - **Spreads and Indicators**: The 7 - 9 spread of live pigs decreased by 3.23%. The slaughter rate increased by 0.83%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 40.23% [7]. Sugar - **Prices**: On May 29, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 5,674 yuan/ton, down 0.60%; the futures price of 2509 was 5,795 yuan/ton, down 0.79%. The ICE raw sugar futures price was 16.91 cents/pound, down 1.97% [10]. - **Basis and Inventory**: The basis in Nanning increased by 14.65%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 38.66%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 8.20%, and the industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased by 10.41% [10][12]. Cotton - **Prices**: On May 29, the futures price of cotton 2509 was 13,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of 2601 was 13,375 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The ICE cotton futures price was 65.33 cents/pound, down 0.38% [13]. - **Inventory and Indicators**: Commercial inventory decreased by 7.7%, industrial inventory decreased by 2.6%, and imports decreased by 14.3%. The export volume of textile yarns and fabrics increased by 4.4% [13]. Eggs - **Prices**: On May 29, the futures price of egg 09 contract was 3,722 yuan/500KG, up 0.24%; the futures price of 06 contract was 2,662 yuan/500KG, down 1.26% [14]. - **Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks was unchanged, the price of culled chickens decreased by 1.92%, and the breeding profit increased by 7.32% [14].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating upwards [1] - Edible Oils: Oscillating downwards [1] - Eggs: Oscillating weakly [1] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [2] Group 2: Core Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, the main 2507 contract of corn reduced positions and adjusted. The futures price fluctuated during the session and rebounded at the end of the session, closing with a small positive line. Northeast corn prices were basically stable, while North China prices were strong last weekend and slowed down on Tuesday. The arrival volume was small, and there was still an intention to ship before the wheat harvest. Sales areas were stable, and ports were temporarily stable. Technically, the July contract was suppressed by the long - term moving average. Under the pressure of wheat substitution and new wheat listing, it is expected that the corn futures and spot quotes will continue to be weak from May to June [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans rose. An agricultural consulting agency raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean production by 800,000 tons to 172 million tons. Brazil's May soybean exports were 14.03 million tons. The post - market crop report showed that the U.S. soybean planting rate was 76%. Domestically, rapeseed meal increased positions and rose, and soybean meal followed. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the terminal pick - up volume increased, the demand for the two meals was good, the inventory accumulation of soybean meal was less than expected, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased. The supply pressure of soybean meal was postponed to mid - June, and the granular meal inventory may gradually decline. Hold the 9 - 1 positive spread of soybean meal and maintain a long - only mindset [1]. - **Edible Oils**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil slightly closed higher. High - frequency data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% - 11.6% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.73% month - on - month. The slowdown in production growth and the improvement in export growth helped to digest inventory pressure. China and Malaysia signed an agreement, and the EU delegation will visit Malaysia in September and October. Crude oil prices were almost flat. Domestically, rapeseed oil increased positions and rose, while soybean oil and palm oil oscillated and adjusted. The import profit of palm oil was inverted, and the expected purchase volume decreased. The market is concerned about rapeseed purchases after June and soybean purchases for September shipments and later. The state - reserve rapeseed oil has two - way sales. Edible oils oscillate, with a bearish mindset before the festival [1]. - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, egg futures fell. The main 2507 contract continued to decline, and the 2509 contract broke through the oscillation range downward. The spot price increased slightly. Fundamentally, the new supply will continue to increase before August. The long - term plum rain in the Yangtze River Delta is expected to have a greater negative impact on egg prices than in previous years. Before the over - expected increase in culling, a weak expectation for egg prices is maintained [1][2]. - **Live Pigs**: On Tuesday, the September contract of live pigs oscillated and adjusted. At the beginning of the week, the futures price rose driven by the near - month contract. The spot price rose on the weekend, which boosted the futures price. The current demand is stable, but the previous low price triggered resistance to price drops, and the supply of leading enterprises decreased slightly, with a small price rebound. It is expected that the market will continue to adjust within the range in the near future. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 13,500 yuan integer mark. The spot price in May was stronger than expected, and it is generally expected that the price will decline under the pressure of increased supply in June [2]. Group 3: Market Information - CGC will organize a two - way bidding session for rapeseed oil on May 30, with 18,263 tons for two - way trading [3] - Indian farmers and industry officials said that India's soybean planting area may decrease this year as corn and sugarcane may replace soybeans in some areas [3] - According to market rumors, the state - reserve soybean auction will not be held before June 15, and it is rumored that the local state - reserve in Heilongjiang will auction about 2 million tons next month [3] - As of May 23, the commercial inventory of the three major edible oils was 1.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons [3] - From May 20 - 27, the total trading volume of soybean meal showed a fluctuating downward trend, with the total trading volume on May 27 being 86,900 tons, a decrease of 27,700 tons from the previous trading day [4] Group 4: Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: Include the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [5][8][9][13] - **Contract Basis**: Include the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][15][19][21][27] Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na, Director of Agricultural Products Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, leader of the top ten research teams of DCE, with multiple awards and media experiences [31] - Hou Xueling, Soybean Analyst at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures experience, and her team has won multiple awards [31] - Kong Hailan, Researcher on eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with her team winning multiple awards and media interviews [31]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 27 日 白糖油运：黄 莹 期货从业证号：F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 原木造纸：朱四祥 期货从业证号F03127108 投资咨询号：Z0020124 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 2.油世界：全球油菜籽产量恢复前景可能比此前市场评估小一些，这在加拿大，澳 大利亚，乌克兰三个主要出口国情况是真实的，更小的种植面积以及更低的单产使得总 体产量减少约 80-90 万吨； 3.外媒：巴西农业部门宣布启动为期 28 天的禽流感观察期，旨在向全球证明其家 禽养殖体系无疫，这或有利于保障未来豆粕出口渠道； 【外盘情况】 CBOT大豆指数上涨0.45%至1057.75美分/蒲，CBOT豆粕指数上涨0.33%至302.2 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: SPPOMA's sharp decline in the first 25 - day production increase and the growth in the first 25 - day exports will limit the downside of the market, but the domestic Dalian palm oil futures will maintain a weak and volatile trend due to weak Malaysian palm oil performance and rising domestic port inventories [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are deteriorating. The domestic soybean arrival is large, the factory's开机率 is rising, and the inventory is increasing. Spot soybean oil will continue to be weaker than futures, and the basis quote is expected to decline [1]. Meal - Two - meal futures in the domestic market are fluctuating. The spring sowing of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the supply pressure from Brazil is being realized. The domestic soybean arrival will be abundant in the future, but the oil mill's meal inventory is low, and the basis is at a low level. The two - meal is expected to maintain a fluctuating structure [2]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded. Although the improvement in supply and demand is limited, due to the reduction in the supply of breeding groups at the end of the month and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand, the price has rebounded slightly. The 09 contract has rebounded following the spot, and the market is expected to neither fall sharply nor have strong upward momentum [4][5]. Corn - The short - term corn market is trading quietly, with no obvious unilateral driving force, and will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation. The market is more concerned about the wheat listing and price changes. In the long - term, the tightening supply and increased breeding demand will support the price [7]. Sugar - The supply outlook for the 25/26 sugar season is optimistic, and the raw sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a risk of falling below 17 cents/lb. The domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the expected increase in future imports [10]. Cotton - The downstream of the cotton industry has rigid demand resilience, and the spot basis of raw - material cotton is firm, providing strong support for the price. However, the long - term demand expectation is not strong, and there is no strong upward driving force. The domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [12]. Eggs - The national egg supply is relatively sufficient, which has a certain negative impact on the price. The demand may first decrease and then increase, which is the main factor affecting the price fluctuation. The national egg price may first fall and then rise this week, with a small adjustment range [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On May 26, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8120 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from May 23; the futures price of Y2509 was 7530 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the basis was 590 yuan/ton, down 1.67%. The inventory is increasing, and the basis is expected to decline [1]. - **Palm oil**: On May 26, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8520 yuan/ton, down 0.93% from May 23; the futures price of P2509 was 7920 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the basis was 600 yuan/ton, down 7.12%. The domestic futures market is weak and volatile [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On May 26, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9610 yuan/ton, unchanged from May 23; the futures price of 01509 was 9026 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the basis was 584 yuan/ton, up 7.35% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread have changed to varying degrees, reflecting the relative price relationship between different varieties [1]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2940 yuan/ton, down 0.68% from the previous value; the futures price of M2509 was 2950 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; the basis was - 10 yuan/ton, down 225.00%. The cost of domestic soybean meal is under pressure due to Brazilian supply [2]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2510 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous value; the futures price of RM2509 was 2566 yuan/ton, up 0.39%; the basis was - 56 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the oil - meal ratio and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread, have all changed [2]. Live Pigs - **Futures**: The main contract price was 830 yuan/ton, up 8.50%; the price of live pigs 2507 was 13260 yuan/ton, up 0.42%; the price of live pigs 2509 was 13600 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [4]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in various regions have rebounded to varying degrees. The sample - point slaughter volume increased by 1.42%, the white - strip price decreased by 100.00%, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased [4]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2507 was 2318 yuan/ton, down 0.39%; the import profit increased by 2.80%. The market is affected by factors such as wheat and supply and demand [7]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2507 was 2653 yuan/ton, down 0.38%; the basis increased by 37.04%. The profit of Shandong starch decreased by 6.49% [7]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.11%, the price of sugar 2509 increased by 0.03%, and the ICE raw - sugar main contract decreased by 0.40% [10]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming changed slightly. The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, while the industrial inventory decreased [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2509 was 13385 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13435 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [12]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Xinjiang and other regions changed slightly. The commercial and industrial inventories decreased month - on - month, and the export volume of textile products changed to varying degrees [12]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3766 yuan/500KG, up 0.11%; the price of the egg 06 contract was 2762 yuan/500KG, up 0.22% [13]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.19%, and the base increased by 42.40%. The egg - chicken chick price was unchanged, and the culled - chicken price decreased by 1.92% [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean One: No clear rating [1] - Bean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bean Oil: No clear rating [1] - Palm Oil: No clear rating [1] - Rapeseed Meal: No clear rating [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆★ [1] - Corn: No clear rating [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The soybean market is affected by factors such as policy, weather, and supply. The rapeseed market lacks trend - driving factors but has a bullish strategy. The corn market will fluctuate. The live pig market is under supply pressure, and the egg market is bearish in the long - term [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Contents Soybeans - Domestic soybean futures fluctuate repeatedly, with local reserve soybean auctions resulting in no sales. The policy - driven trading volume is small. Imported soybeans face the pressure of large - scale arrivals from May to July, and weather will be a key factor in both domestic and overseas markets [2] - The drought - affected area of US soybeans has shrunk, with about 16% of the planting area affected as of May 20, compared to 17% the previous week and 6% last year. The domestic spot market has stabilized, and the supply has become more abundant. The competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans has increased, and there are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade [3] Bean Meal - The Dalian bean meal main contract continued to close higher. The domestic spot market has stabilized, and the supply has become more abundant since May. There are many uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and the market lacks a continuous upward - driving force [3] Bean Oil and Palm Oil - The US House of Representatives has passed the 45Z amendment bill, which may increase the demand for domestic raw materials in North America, increase US soybean crushing, and reduce US soybean exports. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle overseas and faces the pressure of increased arrivals in China from May to June. The prices of bean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures contracts mainly fluctuated with small daily price changes. The sowing of Canadian rapeseed is advancing, and as of May 19, 58% of the rapeseed in Saskatchewan has been sown. The supply of oilseeds in China is expected to be abundant in the second quarter, and the strategy is still bullish [5] Corn - Corn futures rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom this week. The spot price of corn in Northeast China continued to decline slightly, and the supply in Shandong decreased. After the transfer of grain ownership, the market - circulating grain is still in the trading link. Starch enterprises have had long - term losses, with a recent decline in operating rates and a slight recovery in profits. The market will fluctuate in the next stage [6] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continued to hit new lows, and the spot price was under pressure due to the accelerated slaughter rate. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of live pigs will recover, and the spot price is expected to decline, which may put downward pressure on the futures price [7] Eggs - The spot price of eggs across the country generally declined, and the near - month June contract continued to hit new lows. In the short - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the price can stop falling and stabilize during the Dragon Boat Festival stocking period. In the medium - term, the industry's production capacity is expected to increase until the end of September. In the long - term, the egg price is bearish [8]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector shows mixed performance. Palm oil, apples, and pigs are under downward pressure, while soybeans are rising, and cotton remains stable. The performance of each variety is affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and international trade policies [1][2][4] Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil market is under pressure due to factors such as increased production, rising inventories, and falling crude oil prices. The 2509 contract has reversed and fallen sharply, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position [1][2] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market is driven by external markets, but the expected increase in domestic soybean arrivals and inventory may limit its upward space. The 2509 contract is oscillating upward, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Soybean Oil - The soybean oil market is affected by falling crude oil prices and increased domestic supply. The 2509 contract has fallen sharply, and the strategy is to sell at high prices [6] Corn - The corn market has rebounded technically, but the upcoming large - scale arrival of new wheat and the substitution effect may resist the rebound. The 2507 contract has rebounded from a low level, and short positions should be closed [9] Pig - The pig market is under pressure due to capacity release and weak demand. The 2509 contract has continued to fall, and the strategy is to hold a light - short position [10][12] Cotton - The cotton market is supported by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and good export data, but downstream demand has not fully recovered. The 2509 contract is fluctuating at a high level, and a light - long position is recommended [13][15] Sugar - The domestic sugar market has strong production and sales, but the upcoming increase in imports may put pressure on prices. The 2509 contract is oscillating, and short - term trading is recommended [16] Egg - The egg market is facing pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. The 2507 contract is oscillating at a low level, and a light - short position is recommended [18] Apple - The apple market is affected by slowed sales and the impact of seasonal fruits. The 2510 contract has continued to fall sharply, and a light - short position is recommended [21] Peanut - The peanut market is supported by pre - holiday stocking and reduced imports. The 2510 contract has pulled back after rising, and a light - long position is recommended [22][24]