投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 4 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场呈现近弱远强的分化走势，资金继续向远期 2605 合约移仓。美豆期价受中 国采购预期支撑高位运行，但巴西大豆创纪录的丰产预期及美豆较巴西大豆的升水限制了上行空间。 国内豆粕高库存与油厂高压榨量对价格形成压制，而下游生猪养殖存栏高位支撑饲料需求，使得市场 在"弱现实"与"强预期"间反复博弈。短期豆粕 2605 合约仍将维持区间内震荡偏弱运行，需关注 南美天气变化及中国采购美豆的实际进展。 时间周期说 ...

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 玉米现货报价偏强运行，周末东北玉米价格偏强运行为主，东北深加工玉米收购 价格上涨对行情仍有一定的支撑，基层农户惜售情绪较为明显。 周末山东玉米 供应市场，短期市场情绪看涨预期较强，预计随着本地粮源供应量逐渐增加，华 | 震荡上涨 | | | 周一，玉米近月 2601 和 2603 合约先跌后涨，期价当日下探后尾盘收复部分失地。 | | | | 价格整体维持稳定，部分企业玉米价格有涨有跌，调整范围有限。东北粮源持续 | | | | 北玉米供应紧张的局面有望得到缓解。 周末销区市场玉米价格坚挺运行。港口 | | | | 贸易商报价保持高位，但市场整体购销活跃度一般，高价成交偏少。下游饲料厂 | | | | 观望心态为主，维持 30-40 天安全头寸滚动补库。技术上，现货玉米报价延续强 | | | | 势表现，期价震荡调整。12 月警惕玉米期、现报价持续调整，短多注意设置动 | | | | 态止盈。 | | | | 周一，CBOT 大豆收跌，因市场关注出口销售数据。USDA 检验报告显示，美豆 口销售报告显示，截至 10 月 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil production increased in November, and the market expects inventory growth to pressure the futures. There is a risk of a downward break in domestic palm oil futures. It is necessary to closely monitor whether the domestic palm oil futures can effectively stand above 8,600 points [1]. - Soybean oil: The market doubts China's ability to purchase 850 million tons of soybeans this year. CBOT soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient but demand is limited. However, international oils still have some upward momentum, and it is expected that CBOT soybean oil will likely drive up the domestic oils market after the opening. Currently, the import cost of domestic soybeans remains high, and the spot basis quotation will have limited fluctuations in the short term [1]. Sugar - International sugar: The cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil by the end of October has exceeded 38 million tons, and the production forecast for this season is between 40.1 - 40.8 million tons. The price of hydrous ethanol converted to sugar is above 16 cents per pound, and the low sugar - making ratio is expected to be maintained. The futures market for raw sugar lacks new negative factors, and the price is consolidating and bottoming out, expected to remain firm in the short term [3][4]. - Domestic sugar: The new sugar in Guangxi has entered the market, driving down the price of Yunnan sugar. Although processed sugar and beet sugar are affected to some extent, their prices are relatively firm. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern [4]. Cotton - Internationally, the USDA's cotton export sales in October were stable, and Chinese buyers have gradually resumed purchases but in limited quantities. The cotton harvest in the US is nearly 80% complete, and the quality of new cotton has improved. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton still faces hedging pressure when rising, but the pressure is not concentrated. The demand from textile enterprises for spot cotton is weak, but pre - sales are being delivered, which eases the short - term supply pressure. The basis of spot sales is firm, and there is strong support below Zhengzhou cotton. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger within a range [7]. Eggs - The number of newly - laid hens remains low, and the number of old hens being slaughtered has increased significantly. As a result, the inventory of laying hens is on a downward trend, and production capacity is contracting. The suitable storage weather has enhanced the inventory - holding capacity of each link, and the market supply pressure has been alleviated. With the approaching of "Double 12", promotions by e - commerce platforms and supermarkets are expected to stimulate terminal consumption, mainly for small and medium - sized eggs. Food enterprises also show an intention to stock up at low prices. Under multiple factors, the market demand is expected to improve slightly next week. Egg prices have reached a phased low, and downstream replenishment has increased, so there is a possibility of a slight rebound in egg prices [9]. Meal - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern. The fixed - price increases with the market, and the basis slightly declines. Downstream feed enterprises are cautious about replenishing inventory, and the market is unlikely to see a continuous upward trend. It is necessary to continue to monitor China's purchases of US and Brazilian soybeans and the situation of state - reserve auctions. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate, and there is a risk of a decline after short - term chasing [12]. Pigs - The market supply is accelerating, and the slaughter is smooth. Although the curing of meat in the southwest region has started, the market demand support is limited, the price of large pigs is weak, and the spot market performs poorly. Pig prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening structure. The Ministry of Agriculture announced that the number of fertile sows in October decreased to 39.9 million heads, and the logic of production capacity reduction is still being traded in the futures market. The strategy of inter - month reverse arbitrage can continue to be held. Each contract shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding, but the short - term suppression of the spot market remains, and its sustainability needs to be monitored [15]. Corn - In the northeast region, farmers are reluctant to sell, and with the need for port replenishment due to low inventory and the support of state - reserve purchases, the price remains firm. In the north - central region, the grain sales are adjusted according to the price, but due to the shortage of high - quality grain and transportation difficulties, the price oscillates with limited fluctuations. Overall, the short - term supply of corn is tight, but the current grain - selling progress is slow, with about 70% of the grain yet to be sold, and there is selling pressure before the Spring Festival. On the demand side, traders are cautious about building inventories, deep - processing enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish, and feed enterprises mainly maintain a safety inventory and purchase as needed. In the short term, the futures price remains firm due to the supply - demand mismatch, but the price increase is limited due to the unsolved supply pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the change in the rhythm of corn supply. If the selling pressure materializes as expected, the price may be under pressure [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: From November 26th to 27th, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased from 8,560 to 8,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 1.18%. The futures price of Y2601 decreased from 8,224 to 8,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton or 0.91%. The basis decreased from 336 to 310, a decrease of 26 or 8.39%. The spot basis quotation decreased by 10. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 14,532 to 22,029, a decrease of 7,497 or 34.03% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased from 8,290 to 8,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 1.21%. The futures price of P2601 increased from 8,440 to 8,528 yuan/ton, an increase of 88 yuan/ton or 1.04%. The basis increased from - 150 to - 138, an increase of 12 or 8.00%. The spot basis quotation remained unchanged. The import cost on the disk increased by 20 yuan/ton or 0.22%, and the import profit on the disk increased by 68 yuan/ton or 12.72%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 380 [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 10,110 yuan/ton. The futures price of OI601 decreased from 9,810 to 9,772 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton or 0.48%. The basis increased from 291 to 338, an increase of 47 or 16.15%. The spot basis quotation decreased by 50. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) increased from 200 to 222, an increase of 22 or 11.00%. The palm oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) decreased from - 58 to - 62, a decrease of 4 or 6.90%. The rapeseed oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) decreased from 279 to 233, a decrease of 46 or 16.49%. The soybean - palm oil spread remained unchanged at 170, and the 2601 contract's soybean - palm oil spread decreased from - 548 to - 588, a decrease of 40 or 7.30%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased from 1,650 to 1,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 or 6.06%, and the 2601 contract's rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased from 1,660 to 1,548 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121 or 7.25% [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract decreased from 5,403 to 5,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.06%. The price of the 2605 contract increased from 5,325 to 5,327 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.04%. The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract increased from 15.12 to 15.21 cents per pound, an increase of 0.09 cents per pound or 0.60%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased from 78 to 73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 6.41%. The number of positions in the main contract decreased from 377,132 to 361,517, a decrease of 15,812 or 4.14%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 75 to 0, a decrease of 75 or 100.00%. The number of valid forecasts remained unchanged at 183 [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged at 5,450 and 5,440 yuan/ton respectively. The Nanning basis decreased from 125 to 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 1.60%. The Kunming basis decreased from 115 to 113 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 1.74%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota increased from 4,114 to 4,157 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton or 1.05%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota increased from 5,214 to 5,271 yuan/ton, an increase of 57 yuan/ton or 1.09%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning increased from - 1,336 to - 1,293 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning increased from - 236 to - 179 yuan/ton, an increase of 57 yuan/ton or 24.15% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased from 996.32 to 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 119.89 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales increased from 960.00 to 1,048.00 million tons, an increase of 88.00 million tons or 9.17%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased from 618.14 to 646.50 million tons, an increase of 28.36 million tons or 4.59%. The monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased from 45.34 to 26.66 million tons, a decrease of 18.68 million tons or - 41.20%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate decreased from 96.41% to 93.90%, a decrease of 2.51 percentage points or - 2.60%. The cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi increased from 89.60% to 93.90%, an increase of 4.30 percentage points or 4.80%. The national industrial inventory decreased from 116.00 to 68.21 million tons, a decrease of 47.79 million tons or - 41.20%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Guangxi increased from 27.14 to 44.21 million tons, an increase of 17.07 million tons or 62.90%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Yunnan increased from 26.58 to 33.65 million tons, an increase of 7.07 million tons or 26.60%. Sugar imports increased from 40.00 to 55.00 million tons, an increase of 15.00 million tons or 37.50% [3]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of the cotton 2605 contract increased from 13,605 to 13,685 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton or 0.59%. The price of the 2601 contract increased from 13,640 to 13,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan/ton or 0.62%. The price of the ICE US cotton main contract increased from 64.61 to 64.73 cents per pound, an increase of 0.12 cents per pound or 0.19%. The 5 - 1 spread decreased from - 35 to - 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 14.29%. The number of positions in the main contract increased from 530,074 to 545,268, an increase of 15,194 or 2.87%. The number of warehouse receipts increased from 2,382 to 2,408, an increase of 26 or 1.09%. The number of valid forecasts increased from 1,697 to 1,884, an increase of 187 or 11.02% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased from 14,716 to 14,723 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton or 0.05%. The CC Index of 3128B cotton increased from 14,891 to 14,896 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The FC Index of M: 1% remained unchanged at 12,935 yuan/ton. The price difference between 3128B and the 01 contract decreased from 1,111 to 1,038 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73 yuan/ton or 6.57%. The price difference between 3128B and the 05 contract decreased from 1,076 to 998 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan/ton or 7.25%. The price difference between the CC Index of 3128B and the FC Index of M: 1% increased from 1,956 to 1,961 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.26% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory increased from 293.06 to 363.97 million tons, an increase of 70.91 million tons or 24.2%. The industrial inventory increased from 88.82 to 93.14 million tons, an increase of 4.32 million tons or 4.9%. The import volume decreased from 10.00 to 9.00 million tons, a decrease of 1.00 million tons or - 10.0%. The bonded area inventory increased from 31.10 to 32.80 million tons, an increase of 1.70 million tons or 5.5%. The year - on - year inventory of the textile industry decreased from 0.30 to 0.10, a decrease of 0.20 or - 66.7%. The inventory days of yarn increased from 26.12 to 26.35 days, an increase of 0.23 days or 0.9%. The inventory days of grey cloth decreased from 31.97 to 31.12 days, a decrease of 0.85 days or - 2.7%. The cotton outbound shipping volume increased from 43.60 to 53.46 million tons, an increase of 9.86 million tons or 22.6%. The immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises for C32s increased from - 1,720.10 to - 1,645.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.50 yuan/ton or 4.3%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles increased from 123.05 to 147.08 billion yuan, an increase of 24.03 billion yuan or 19.5%. The year - on - year monthly retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles increased from 4.70% to 6.30%, an increase of 1.60 percentage points or 34.0%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products decreased from 119.67 to 112.58 billion US dollars, a decrease of 7.08 billion

农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 点评 | 品种 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四，玉米近月 | | 2601 合约减仓调整，期价以小阳线收盘。资金向 2603 合约转移。 当日，玉米 1 月合约冲高回落，3、5 月合约继续上行。现货市场中，产区、港 续上涨，目前农户仍较为惜售。 华北地区玉米价格稳中偏弱运行，山东深加工 | 震荡上涨 | | 口玉米报价上涨。东北产区玉米价格仍延续偏强运行的态势，从各地价格上涨情 | | | | | 况来看，辽宁、吉林价格上涨幅度最为剧烈，黑龙江跟涨情况稍显一般，价格持 | | | | | 企业早间门前剩余车辆再次突破 | 玉米 | 1000 台以上，部分深加工企业价格窄幅下调 | | | 10-20 | | 元/吨。河北、河南深加工玉米价格基本维持稳定。销区市场玉米价格继 | | | 续上涨。期货盘面仍偏强，产区贸易商为执行前期合同被迫收粮交付，当前农户 | | | | | 售粮心态一般，上量一般。销区港口贸易商成本提高后继续上调报价。下游饲料 | | | | | 企业维持观望心态滚动建库。技术上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red dates: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Apple: The current inventory and inventory structure expectations are reflected in the price. Future focus should be on terminal market consumption recovery, the impact of inventory structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchants' inventory transfer dynamics. Caution is needed when chasing high prices [4]. - Red dates: If the terminal market can accept and digest the current high - priced new - season spot in the production area, it will drive the futures price to return to the new - season spot price. Otherwise, if the high - priced new - season spot leads to continuous inventory backlog in the circulation link and the supply - demand contradiction is not effectively alleviated, the new - season spot price may continue to fall and approach the futures price. The near - month contract may still have some downward space [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract was 9,529 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.02% [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji apples in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 2,029, a change of + 2 from the previous day. The price of over - 70 semi - commercial late - Fuji apples in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 1,229, a change of + 2 from the previous day [1]. Recent Market News - The trading atmosphere of late - Fuji stored apples is dull. In the western production areas, merchants are sporadically looking for goods, mainly focusing on farmers' two - grade goods, with limited transactions. Some merchants are packaging their self - stored goods to replenish the market. In the Shandong production area, there is sporadic outbound inventory, mainly small fruits for foreign - trade channels. The ground transactions are basically over. The market is in a seasonal off - season, with weak terminal consumption and low enthusiasm among merchants for purchasing. It is expected that today's transactions will remain dull and prices will be stable [2]. Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated. The prices of late - Fuji apples in major production areas such as Shandong Qixia and Shaanxi Luochuan remained stable, with price differences among different specifications. The current market is in a seasonal off - season, with a dull trading atmosphere for late - Fuji stored apples. The outbound volume in each production area is limited, and transactions are light. Merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing is low. Last week, the new - season late - Fuji apple storage work in the production areas was basically completed. The purchase price was high during the acquisition stage, and the storage volume was more than 10% lower than the same period last year, which is different from some market expectations. The proportion of fruit farmers' storage is large, and the proportion of high - quality goods in the storage structure has decreased, while the proportion of poor - quality goods has increased. The outbound work has started recently, and the sales area market is in an off - season. Affected by high prices and other factors, consumption is mainly based on on - demand purchases, and the overall rhythm is a bit slow. The demand side is under pressure, and the trading atmosphere is still dull. The increasing supply of citrus fruits is squeezing the apple sales space [3]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Comprehensive consideration shows that the current expectations of storage volume and storage structure are reflected in the price. Future attention should be paid to the recovery of terminal market consumption, the impact of inventory structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchants' inventory transfer dynamics. Caution is needed when chasing high prices [4]. Red Dates Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract was 9,150 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.11% [5]. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.70 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.20 yuan/kg from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was - 450, a change of - 190 from the previous day [5]. Recent Market News - Currently, the acquisition progress of grey jujubes in the Xinjiang production area is about 50%, and the transfer volume of goods rights is about 30% - 40% of the total output. The prices in the production area are weakly stable. The acquisition progress in Aksu and Alar areas is relatively fast, with the acquired goods being gradually packed and shipped. The acquisition progress is slow in Kashgar. The acquisition in Ruoqiang, Hotan, and Qiemo areas has ended. The raw material acquisition in the production area is priced according to quality, adhering to the principle of high - quality and high - price. Enterprises' enthusiasm for acquisition is average. On November 26, there was a small amount of goods arriving at the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, and the trading was mainly of new - season goods. The new - season jujubes were gradually processed after being harvested. The price difference of new - season goods was large due to cost and origin quality. Downstream merchants made on - demand purchases. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 7 vehicles of goods arrived, and the prices were stable. The quality of the arriving goods was uneven, with a large price difference. The market acceptance of ordinary goods was poor, and downstream merchants made on - demand purchases, with average morning transactions. The supply of new - season goods in the Hebei sales area market has increased, and downstream merchants are waiting and making on - demand purchases based on the new - season prices. It is expected that the spot price will be weakly stable in the short term [6][7]. Market Analysis - The red - date futures price fell slightly yesterday. The acquisition progress in the Xinjiang production area varies, and prices are weakly stable, with high - quality goods having high prices. The supply of new - season goods in the sales area market has increased, but the quality of the arriving goods is uneven, with a large price difference. Downstream merchants make on - demand purchases, and transactions are average. Currently, red dates are at a critical period of switching between the off - season and peak season and the "alternation of new and old seasons". The grey jujubes in the main Xinjiang production area are being harvested, and the orchard - ordering process is accelerating. The prices have been falling recently. Old - season goods are the main trading items in the market, and the market acceptance of new - season goods is average. The enthusiasm of merchants in the production area for purchasing new - season goods is low, and the expected selling price of jujube farmers has decreased. The inventory of 36 sample points has slightly increased. A large amount of new - season goods will be listed soon, and with the co - existence of new and old seasons, the inventory pressure is high, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The market's future expectations are relatively pessimistic. As the weather gets colder, red dates enter the consumption peak season, and the actual consumption situation on the consumer side will become the focus of the market [8]. Strategy - Neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the current high - priced new - season spot in the production area, it will drive the futures price to return to the new - season spot price. Otherwise, if the high - priced new - season spot leads to continuous inventory backlog in the circulation link and the supply - demand contradiction is not effectively alleviated, the new - season spot price may continue to fall and approach the futures price. According to the 2025 modification of the red - date delivery rules by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, old - season red dates can still participate in delivery and the cost is lower than that of new - season red dates. Therefore, the near - month contract may still have some downward space [9].

Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The domestic soybean market features high - quality products commanding high prices, with the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the US soybean export situation in the short - term and the South American soybean产区 weather in the medium - term [2]. - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the crush volume has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. Wait for the signing of the new China - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation, and pay attention to South American weather changes [3]. - The overseas supply - demand situation of palm oil is still weak, but the marginal negative factors have eased. The soybean oil market shows a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. Pay attention to the US soybean price, export situation in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [4]. - The rapeseed futures show a pattern of meal rising and oil falling. The focus is on the clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards the rapeseed sector [6]. - The corn futures are oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the signing of the China - US trade agreement, the selling progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. - The pig industry's capacity reduction continues. The pig price is weakly adjusted. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. - The egg market trades on the expectation of a decline in future inventory. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to ease [9]. Summary by Category Douyi - The domestic soybean futures contract is actively reducing positions, with price oscillations and stable spot market quotations. The new - crop domestic soybean market adheres to the principle of high - quality products commanding high prices. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuates. Monitor the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The US soybean market is closed for Thanksgiving. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the crush volume has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. Wait for the signing of the China - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation, and pay attention to South American weather changes. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The high - frequency data of the Malaysian palm oil export market is still poor, and the inventory in the Indonesian market increased slightly in September. The marginal negative factors in the palm oil market have eased. The soybean oil market shows a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. Pay attention to the US soybean price, export situation in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures show a pattern of meal rising and oil falling. The focus is on the clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. The buying of ships is expected in the future. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards the rapeseed sector [6]. Corn - The corn futures are oscillating strongly. The spot price of corn in the northern ports is firm and rising, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The downstream corn inventory is low, and the willingness to replenish inventory has increased. Wait for the signing of the China - US trade agreement, and pay attention to the selling progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. Live Pigs - The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October 2025. The pig industry's capacity reduction continues. The pig price is weakly adjusted. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures have significantly reduced positions, and the prices of the January contract and the distant - month July/August contracts have risen significantly. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to ease [9].

农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周三，玉米近月 2601 合约减仓下行，资金向 2603 合约转移。当日，玉米 1 月合 | | | | 约冲高回落，3、5 月合约继续上行。现货市场中，产区、港口玉米报价上涨。 | | | | 东北产区玉米价格仍延续偏强运行的态势，从各地价格上涨情况来看，辽宁、吉 | | | | 林价格上涨幅度最为剧烈，黑龙江跟涨情况稍显一般，价格持续上涨，目前农户 | | | | 仍较为惜售。 昨日华北地区玉米价格稳中偏弱运行，山东深加工企业早间门前 | | | | 剩余车辆再次突破 1000 台以上，部分深加工企业价格窄幅下调 10-20 元/吨。河 | 震荡上涨 | | | 北、河南深加工玉米价格基本维持稳定。销区市场玉米价格继续上涨。期货盘面 | | | | 仍偏强，产区贸易商为执行前期合同被迫收粮交付，当前农户售粮心态一般，上 | | | | 量一般。销区港口贸易商成本提高后继续上调报价。下游饲料企业维持观望心态 | | | | 滚动建库。技术上，周三玉米 2601 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-27 下游供应宽松，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3015元/吨，较前日变动+2元/吨，幅度+0.07%；菜粕2601合约2439元/吨，较前 日变动+8元/吨，幅度+0.33%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3060元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01+45， 较前日变动+8；江苏地区豆粕现货2980元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-35，较前日变动-2；广东地区豆 粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-45，较前日变动-2。福建地区菜粕现货价格2620元/ 吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM01+181，较前日变动+2。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部周二公布的出口销售报告显示，10月9日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增 78.50万吨，较之前一周减少15%，较前四周均值减少9%，市场此前预估为净增50.0万吨至净增140.0万吨。11月25 日，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，巴西11月大豆出口量料触及440万吨，上周预测为471万吨。 市场分析 当前国内供应依旧较为宽松 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月27日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 王法庭 | Z0019938 | | 更油 | | | | | | | | | | | 11月26日 | 11月25日 | 旅跌 | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 | | 江苏一级 | 8460 | 8510 | -20 | -0.59% | | 期价 | | Y2601 | 8150 | 8144 | 6 | 0.07% | | 墓差 | | Y2601 | 310 | 366 | -56 | -15.30% | | 现货墓差报价 | | 江苏1月 | 01+280 | 01+280 | 0 | : | | 仓单 | | | 22029 | 24625 | -2596 | -10.54% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | | | | 11月26日 | 11月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | | 广东24度 | 8290 | 8370 | -80 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soybean/M粕类**: CBOT soybeans rose on Wednesday due to demand support and pre - holiday short - covering. The import cost bottom may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [2][3][5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, while production showed mixed trends. Domestic oils stopped falling and rebounded. Palm oil may reverse its supply - surplus situation in the future, and it is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [7][9]. - **Sugar**: New sugar - cane season production in major countries is expected to increase, and the global sugar market is shifting from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall [11][12]. - **Cotton**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market lacks strong driving forces. Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14][15]. - **Eggs**: The spot market is in a stalemate. The futures market is expected to fluctuate before the spot price rises seasonally. In the medium - term, pay attention to supply and wait for a rebound to short [17][18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of live pigs remains under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or use reverse spreads [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/M粕类 - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans rose on Wednesday. Brazilian soybean premiums increased slightly, and domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 231.73 million tons. As of November 22, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing progress was 78.0% [2][3]. - **Strategy**: The import cost bottom may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, while production showed mixed trends. Domestic oils stopped falling and rebounded on Wednesday, and the spot basis rose slightly [7]. - **Strategy**: Palm oil may reverse its supply - surplus situation in the future. It is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective, and turn to a long - position if production decline signals appear [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday. Brazilian sugar production in the first half of November 2025 is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year. As of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, a decrease of 26 compared to last year [11]. - **Strategy**: New sugar - cane season production in major countries is expected to increase, and the global sugar market is shifting from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday. As of November 21, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to increase by 52 million tons [14]. - **Strategy**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market lacks strong driving forces. Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Most egg prices remained stable on the previous day, with supply and demand in a stalemate [17]. - **Strategy**: The futures market is expected to fluctuate before the spot price rises seasonally. In the medium - term, pay attention to supply and wait for a rebound to short [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Domestic pig prices mainly fell on the previous day, with some areas rising slightly. The supply of live pigs remains high, and the price increase space is limited [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply of live pigs remains under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or use reverse spreads [21].