Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is "Cautiously Bearish" [3][6] Report's Core View - For the粕类 market, the overall supply is relatively loose as the US harvest is progressing smoothly and South American sowing is also going well. In China, the arrival of soybeans is sufficient, and the inventory of soybeans and bean meal remains high. Attention should be paid to import conditions and changes in the cost of imported US soybeans after the China-US negotiations [2] - For the corn market, the inventory of deep - processing and feed enterprises is relatively low, with a weak willingness to build inventory and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The new grain is concentrated on the market, and the situation of oversupply remains unchanged. The selling progress of farmers and the inventory strength of traders should be monitored [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market News and Important Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3026 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2491 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan/ton (+4.31%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3070 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2990 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2990 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2680 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [1] - **Market Information**: As of October 31, the soybean sowing area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, in the 2025/26 crop year had reached 76.13% of the estimated area, an increase of 16.08 percentage points from the previous week [1] Market Analysis - The overall supply is loose, putting pressure on prices. In China, the supply of soybeans and bean meal is also abundant, and post - negotiation import conditions and cost changes need attention [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2141 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (+0.52%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2453 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (+0.53%) [3] - **Spot Prices**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - **Market Information**: As of last Saturday, the planting of the first - season corn in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 40.0% completed, compared with 33.2% last week, 36.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 39.6% [3] Market Analysis - Enterprises have low inventory, weak willingness to build inventory, and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The new grain is concentrated on the market, and the oversupply situation persists. Monitor farmers' selling progress and traders' inventory strength [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The price of CBOT soybeans rose on Monday due to favorable trade relations. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the import of US soybeans will slow down the de - stocking process and reduce the crushing profit margin. It is expected that soybean meal will rise in the short - term following the import cost, and the crushing profit will recover, but in the medium - term, it is still advisable to sell on rebounds as the global soybean supply is expected to be loose [2][3][5]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil market is suppressed by the unexpectedly high production in Malaysia and Indonesia. If the high production in Indonesia cannot be sustained, the de - stocking time point may come earlier. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a bullish view if there are signals of production decline [10]. - **Sugar**: The tightening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures, but the external market is still weak. It is advisable to look for opportunities to short after the rebound weakens [14]. - **Cotton**: The demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and the downstream industrial chain's operating rate has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is an expectation of a bountiful harvest in the new year, and the upward space for cotton prices is relatively limited in the short - term [17]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a decline in inventory due to low replenishment and high culling, combined with the increasing enthusiasm for stockpiling after the temperature drops, has broken the downward spiral of egg prices. It is expected to be mainly in a strong consolidation in the short - term, and the medium - term focus is on the upper pressure [19]. - **Pigs**: The market is under high supply pressure, and the futures price has independently reflected the future supply pressure. The overall idea is to sell on rallies, but due to the high position in the futures market, cautious investors can use reverse spread positions instead [22]. Summary by Category Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Monday, the domestic soybean meal spot price rose by 50 yuan, with the price in East China reported at 3000 yuan/ton. The MYSTEEL statistics show that the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises increased by 0.06 days to 8.02 days last week. The port soybean inventory decreased slightly but remained above 9 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills rose to over 1.15 million tons. The MYSTEEL predicts that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week will be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import cost fluctuates mainly. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the crushing profit is under pressure, but there is some support as it gradually enters the de - stocking season. It is expected that soybean meal will rise in the short - term following the import cost, and the crushing profit will recover, but in the medium - term, it is still advisable to sell on rebounds [5]. Fats and Oils - **Market Information**: ITS and AMSPEC data show that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 30 increased compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia in October increased compared with the same period last month. The import volume of edible oil in India in October decreased compared with the previous month. On Monday, the domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil rebounding rapidly and palm oil still constrained by high production in Malaysia and Indonesia [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a bullish view if there are signals of production decline [10]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the January contract was 5499 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased, while the mainstream quotation of processing sugar factories remained unchanged. The UNICA data shows that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased in the first half of October [12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tightening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures, but the external market is still weak. It is advisable to look for opportunities to short after the rebound weakens [14]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 13600 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. As of the week ending October 31, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, and the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang decreased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and the downstream industrial chain's operating rate has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is an expectation of a bountiful harvest in the new year, and the upward space for cotton prices is relatively limited in the short - term [17]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable or declined yesterday. The average price in the main production areas dropped slightly to 2.84 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, the market demand is average, and the downstream purchases on demand. It is expected that the egg price will be mostly stable with a small decline today [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The expectation of a decline in inventory due to low replenishment and high culling, combined with the increasing enthusiasm for stockpiling after the temperature drops, has broken the downward spiral of egg prices. It is expected to be mainly in a strong consolidation in the short - term, and the medium - term focus is on the upper pressure [19]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly declined yesterday. The average price in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangxi decreased. The slaughter of breeding groups gradually recovered, and the number of pigs sold by individual farmers increased. The downstream slaughterhouses' procurement difficulty decreased, and the pork product sales were average. It is expected that the pig price will continue to decline slightly today [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is under high supply pressure, and the futures price has independently reflected the future supply pressure. The overall idea is to sell on rallies, but due to the high position in the futures market, cautious investors can use reverse spread positions instead [22].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products" dated November 3, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Lack of driving factors, focus on lower support [2] - Soybean oil: With the rebound of US soybeans, maintaining the strategy of expanding the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [2] - Soybean meal: US soybeans hit a new high, Dalian soybean meal may follow with a relatively strong oscillation [2] - Soybean: May oscillate strongly [2] - Corn: Will run in an oscillatory manner [2] - Sugar: Mainly in range consolidation [2] - Cotton: The impact of seed cotton prices on cotton futures is weakening [2] - Eggs: Will undergo oscillatory adjustment [2] - Hogs: The central price may further decline [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - closing price was 8,764 yuan/ton with a - 0.72% change, and night - closing price was 8,654 yuan/ton with a - 1.26% change. Soybean oil's daily - closing price was 8,128 yuan/ton with a - 0.49% change, and night - closing price was 8,092 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased compared to the previous month. Indonesia set the November reference price for crude palm oil slightly higher than October, with the export tax remaining unchanged. The USDA will release major agricultural reports in November. [5][6][8] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [12] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - closing price was 3021 yuan/ton with a + 1.34% change, and night - closing price was 3024 yuan/ton with a + 0.63% change. DCE soybean 2601's daily - closing price was 4102 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change, and night - closing price was 4100 yuan/ton with a + 0.12% change. [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 31, CBOT soybean prices rose to a 15 - month high due to China's purchase of US soybeans. [13] - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of + 1 [15] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2511's daily - closing price was 2,105 yuan/ton with a 0.14% change, and night - closing price was 2,119 yuan/ton with a 0.67% change. C2601's daily - closing price was 2,130 yuan/ton with a 0.80% change, and night - closing price was 2,127 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change. [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: Corn prices in different regions showed different trends, with prices in North China mostly rising and those in Guangdong showing a stable - to - downward trend. [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [19] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.42 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5720 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5483 yuan/ton. [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production in late September increased year - on - year, but exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September increased. Forecasts for the 25/26 sugar - making season show a supply shortage globally. [20][22] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [23] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's daily - closing price was 13,595 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% change, and night - closing price was 13555 yuan/ton with a - 0.29% change. CY2601's daily - closing price was 19,875 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% change, and night - closing price was 19810 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change. [25] - **Macro and Industry News**: The cotton spot market had a cold trading volume, and the cotton - ginning factory's acquisition was nearing completion. The ICE cotton futures rose slightly last Friday. [26] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [28] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2512's closing price was 3,146 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.29% change, and Egg 2601's closing price was 3,466 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.07% change. [29] - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [29] Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 12530 yuan/ton, and the futures price of Hogs 2601 was 11815 yuan/ton. [33] - **Market Information**: New delivery warehouses were added, and the national feed output in September increased. [35] - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of - 1 [34] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,400 yuan/ton, and PK601's closing price was 7,812 yuan/ton with a 0.05% change. [36] - **Spot Market Focus**: Different peanut oil factories had different purchase prices and arrival volumes, and some contracts were suspended. [37][38] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [41]

Report Overview - This is the agricultural product morning report of Wukuang Futures on November 3, 2025, covering protein meals, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, expect short - term price increases following import costs, with a mid - term strategy of selling on rebounds due to the expected global soybean supply surplus [5] - For oils, suggest a bearish view in the short - term until Malaysian palm oil exports improve, and switch to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [9] - For sugar, recommend looking for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens due to limited upward space for raw sugar [13] - For cotton, expect limited upward space for cotton prices in the short - term due to weak fundamentals [16] - For eggs, expect short - term strong consolidation, and pay attention to upper pressure in the mid - term [18] - For pigs, suggest a strategy of selling on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse spreads [20] Summary by Category Protein Meals Market Information - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose as the market expected China to buy a large amount of US soybeans. Over the weekend, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 30 yuan, with the East China price at 2950 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal trading was average, and pick - up was good. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume this week will be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the main Brazilian planting areas will be at a neutral level. US officials said China will buy tens of millions of tons of soybeans after the APEC talks [3] Strategy Viewpoints - Import costs will mainly trade in a range. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the crushing margin is under pressure. However, as the inventory - reduction season approaches, there is some support. Expect short - term price increases following import costs, a rebound in the crushing margin, and an increase in vessel bookings. In the mid - term, the expected global soybean supply surplus remains unchanged, so the strategy is to sell on rebounds [5] Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 30 increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 25 increased by 1.63% compared with the same period last month. As of the week of October 26, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 25.4% to 155,500 tons. China and Canada agreed to promote the solution of specific economic and trade issues [7] Strategy Viewpoints - The high - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. Palm oil's inventory build - up due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the inventory - reduction time may come earlier. Before Malaysian palm oil exports improve, maintain a bearish view, and switch to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [9] Sugar Market Information - On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to trade sideways. The closing price of the January contract was 5483 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price of processed sugar remained unchanged. In the first half of October, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 34.037 million tons, a sugar production of 2.484 million tons, and an increase in the sugar - making ratio [11][12] Strategy Viewpoints - Stricter import controls on syrup and premixed powder have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the overseas market is still weak. Brazil's central - southern region's cumulative sugar production has exceeded last year's level, and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries in the 2025/26 season limits the upward space for raw sugar. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [13] Cotton Market Information - On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures traded in a narrow range. The closing price of the January contract was 13,595 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. As of the week of October 31, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.6%. On November 1, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.31 yuan/kg [15] Strategy Viewpoints - Due to weak demand during the peak consumption season this year, the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is an expected high - yield in the new year, and the selling hedging pressure is high. Although the recent increase in the new cotton purchase price has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upward space for cotton prices in the short - term is limited [16] Eggs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable, with some local decreases. The laying hen inventory decreased slightly, but the supply of medium and small - sized eggs was still sufficient. The demand side was supported by increased stocking due to the cooling weather and upcoming Double Eleven preparations [17] Strategy Viewpoints - Low replenishment and high culling rates have led to expectations of a peak and decline in inventory. With increased stocking sentiment after the cooling, the previous downward spiral of egg prices has been broken. With upcoming consumption themes such as Double Eleven and pre - festival preparations, the market sentiment is improving. However, due to the high premium in the futures market and the expected high supply, expect short - term strong consolidation, and pay attention to upper pressure in the mid - term [18] Pigs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices mainly declined. Some large - scale breeding groups increased their pig sales at the beginning of the month, resulting in a price drop. The demand increase was insufficient, and the supply still exceeded demand [19] Strategy Viewpoints - Large - scale breeding groups have a high plan completion rate, but the spot price increase was less than expected due to difficulties in selling pork. There is a phenomenon of inventory postponement, and the market is under high - supply pressure. The futures market has priced in the future supply pressure in advance. The overall strategy is to sell on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse spreads [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The corn futures price showed a weak and volatile performance. New grain listings increased in the spot market, and the supply pressure in Jilin was transmitted to the ports, causing the prices at northern ports to decline under pressure. Prices in different regions of North China were differentiated, and prices in the sales areas were generally weak. The corn main 2601 contract rebounded under pressure, and there was a long - term bearish expectation [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans hit a 15 - month high on Thursday. After the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, there were expectations of increased demand. Domestic soybean meal followed the upward trend of the external market, but the market trading was sluggish. The strategy was to think in a slightly bullish and volatile way [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil rebounded after four consecutive days of decline. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association expected the 2025 palm oil production to increase by 10% year - on - year to 56 million tons. In August, Indonesia's inventory decreased by 1% to 2.54 million tons. Domestically, palm oil declined more than soybean oil and rapeseed oil. Short - term participation was recommended, waiting for long - position entry opportunities [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures fluctuated and adjusted on Thursday, with the main 2512 contract slightly down 0.25%. The spot prices were mostly stable, with individual fluctuations. The short - term supply pressure and supply improvement were in a game, and the rebound height was expected to be limited [1]. - Pigs: The main 2601 contract of live pigs closed with a long negative line on Thursday, and the futures price returned to the shock mode. The spot prices in production and sales areas were running strongly, but the price increases in Shandong and Hebei slowed down. Although it was expected that the prices of live pigs and pork would stop falling and rebound in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure still loomed over the market, and the futures price was expected to resume a slow decline after the rebound ended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - The European Central Bank kept the interest rate at 2% on Thursday, while the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by 25 basis points earlier [3]. - In September 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 1,007,389 tons, an increase of 16.07% from the previous month and 7.97% from the same period last year [3]. - The estimated soybean production in the 2025/26 season in Brazil's Paraná state was 21.96 million tons, higher than the September forecast [3]. - China made its first soybean purchase from the US in this harvesting season [3]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: There were charts showing the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [5][6][10][14]. - **Contract Basis**: There were charts showing the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [13][16][17][22]. 3.3 Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0001262 [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures trading experience and multiple awards. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013637 [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013544 [26].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soybean meal and corn markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic fundamentals of soybean meal have not changed significantly. The domestic arrival volume is sufficient, and the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal are still at a relatively high level, with overall supply being relatively loose. Future focus should be on the Sino - US negotiations and the sowing situation of new - season Brazilian soybeans [2] - For corn, on the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain was relatively low due to the previous decline in the price of corn at the northern ports, but it has slightly recovered this week in the Northeast. In North China, the risk of spoiled grain has significantly decreased, and the pace of selling damp grain has slowed down. On the demand side, the channel inventory, port inventory, deep - processing enterprise inventory, and feed enterprise inventory are all at a low level, but the stocking willingness is low [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2994 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 0.84% from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2401 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 1.18% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3010 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 + 16, down 25 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 54, down 15 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 2950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 44, down 15 from the previous day. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 209, up 2 from the previous day [1] - Argentina: As of the week of October 22, Argentine farmers sold 264,800 tons of 2024/25 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 3.83441 million tons. The domestic oil mills purchased 224,800 tons, and the export industry purchased 40,000 tons. They also sold 843,600 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 407,350 tons. The domestic oil mills purchased 816,800 tons, and the export industry purchased 26,800 tons [1] Group 4: Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2111 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2419 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 19, down 5 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS11 + 131, up 8 from the previous day [3] - Brazil: As of last Saturday, the planting of the first - season corn in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 40.0% completed, compared with 33.2% last week, 36.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 39.6% [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the South China Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily on October 31, 2025, written by Dai Hongxu and research assistant Kang Quangui [1] Group 2: Core Views - New - season corn harvest is nearing completion in October, with grain sales and circulation peaking. After the concentrated listing in October, the bottom of corn prices is emerging, and the current price is in a consolidation phase with limited upward and downward driving forces [2] - Corn prices in major producing areas remained stable yesterday. In the Northeast, state - reserve purchases signaled price support, curbing the selling sentiment of upstream suppliers and weakening the downward price momentum, while downstream buyers were more active. In North China and the Huang - Huai region, prices were also stable. As the low - quality grain affected by precipitation was gradually sold, the price of high - quality corn remained firm. In the sales areas, arrivals increased, but downstream buyers were cautious, mostly purchasing as needed with weak short - term inventory - building intentions, providing limited price support [2] - On Thursday, the corn futures market oscillated weakly. The main 01 contract closed at 2111 yuan, with slightly increased trading volume and open interest, and 63,966 registered warrants. The starch futures market also weakened, with the main 01 contract closing at 2419 yuan [2] Group 3: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The first peak of new - season corn listing has passed, and prices are stabilizing [6] - State - reserve purchases in the Northeast have significantly supported prices, limiting price declines [6] - The reduction of high - quality corn in North China will gradually become apparent over time, supporting the expectation of stronger long - term prices [6] Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs support the feed demand at a relatively good level. Attention should also be paid to whether the news of the wheat directional auction in November will affect corn prices [3] - The supply level remains high in the fourth quarter, and prices are consolidating at a low level [3] - Sino - US negotiations have achieved good progress, and relevant national departments have confirmed that China and the US have reached a consensus on expanding agricultural product trade. Attention should be paid to whether it extends to the corn variety [3] Group 4: Price Forecast and Market Data Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for corn is in the range of 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.82% and a volatility percentile of 23.6%. The monthly price forecast for starch is in the range of 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.92% and a volatility percentile of 4.92% [4] Spot Price and Basis - In the corn market, the price at Jinzhou Port is 2130 yuan (down 10 yuan), at Shekou Port is 2250 yuan (unchanged), and in Harbin is 2010 yuan (unchanged). The basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract is 19 yuan (down 5 yuan). In the corn starch market, the price in Shandong is 2740 yuan (unchanged), in Jilin is 2550 yuan (unchanged), and in Heilongjiang is 2460 yuan (unchanged). The basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract is 321 yuan (up 8 yuan) [4] Futures Price - For corn futures, the 11 - contract price changed from 2101 to 2103 yuan (up 2 yuan, 0.10%), the 01 - contract from 2116 to 2111 yuan (down 5 yuan, - 0.24%), the 03 - contract from 2145 to 2141 yuan (down 4 yuan, - 0.19%), the 05 - contract from 2221 to 2213 yuan (down 8 yuan, - 0.36%), the 07 - contract from 2244 to 2238 yuan (down 6 yuan, - 0.27%), and the 09 - contract remained at 2247 yuan (unchanged). For corn starch futures, the 11 - contract price changed from 2438 to 2431 yuan (down 7 yuan, - 0.29%), the 01 - contract from 2427 to 2419 yuan (down 8 yuan, - 0.33%), the 03 - contract from 2438 to 2429 yuan (down 9 yuan, - 0.37%), the 05 - contract from 2540 to 2530 yuan (down 10 yuan, - 0.39%), the 07 - contract from 2558 to 2548 yuan (down 10 yuan, - 0.39%), and the 09 - contract from 2590 to 2584 yuan (down 6 yuan, - 0.23%). The average wheat price rose from 2500 to 2504 yuan (up 4 yuan, 0.16%) [7] US Corn Market - The price of CBOT corn main - continuous contract was 429.5 (down 5, - 1.15%), COBT soybean main - continuous contract was 1107 (up 13.75, 1.26%), CBOT wheat main - continuous contract was 524.25 (down 9.25, - 1.73%). The duty - paid price at the US Gulf was 2154.54 yuan (up 5.9, 0.27%) with an import profit of 95.46 yuan, and the duty - paid price at the US West Coast was 2032.78 yuan (up 5.91, 0.29%) with an import profit of 217.22 yuan [30]

Group 1: Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - Corn: The rating is "Oscillating Downward" [1] - Soybean Meal: The rating is "Oscillating" [1] - Oils and Fats: The rating is "Declining" [1] - Eggs: The rating is "Oscillating" [1] - Pigs: The rating is "Oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn: On Wednesday, the main corn 2601 contract closed with a small negative line after opening flat, showing an oscillating performance. The supply of new grain in the spot market has increased, and the supply pressure of corn in Jilin has been transmitted to the ports, causing the prices at northern ports to decline under pressure. The prices in North China are running steadily with a slight upward trend. The prices in the sales areas are mainly weak. The downstream feed enterprises are mostly waiting and watching, and the port traders are actively selling. Technically, the main 2601 contract is under pressure to rebound, and the long - term outlook is bearish [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans remained flat. The market is optimistic about the demand outlook and is concerned about the trade situation and the US government shutdown. Domestically, soybean meal is oscillating narrowly, and the funds are cautious. There are many rumors about US soybean purchases, and the results of the Sino - US leaders' talks should be closely watched. The spot price of soybean meal has followed the increase, but the market trading is sluggish [1]. - Oils and Fats: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell for the fourth consecutive day and the second consecutive month, following the decline of the surrounding markets. The expected over - production in Indonesia has also depressed the market. Domestically, palm oil continued to decline and stopped falling at night. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil are relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of US and Indonesian biodiesel policies and the tariff adjustments between the US and Malaysia [1]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, the egg futures continued to rebound, with the main 2512 contract rising 2.13%. The spot price of eggs continued to decline slightly. There is a game between short - term supply pressure and supply improvement, and the rebound height is expected to be limited. The future egg price trend depends on the changes in the farmers' willingness to replenish and cull the flocks [1]. - Pigs: On Wednesday, the main 2601 contract of live pigs closed with a small positive line close to a doji, and the futures price was blocked from rising and moved down in the range. The spot prices in production and sales areas are running strongly, but the price increase in Shandong and Hebei has slowed down. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs expects the prices of live pigs and pork to stop falling and rebound in the fourth quarter. However, due to the continuous policy of controlling the breeding sows and reducing the inventory and the supply pressure, it is expected that the futures price will return to a slow decline after the rebound [2]. Group 3: Market Information - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year. The export volume is expected to be 111 million tons, basically the same as the previous year. The planting area is expected to reach 48.8 million hectares, a 2% increase from the previous year [3]. - The US government shutdown has lasted for nearly a month, and there seems to be a change. There is a possibility of a compromise on the temporary appropriation bill next week [3]. - The Argentine oilseed workers' union may resume the strike next week as they are still far from reaching a salary agreement with the employers [3]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [3]. - China has made its first purchase of US soybeans this harvest season, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry has not given a specific comment [4]. Group 4: Variety Spreads 4.1 Contract Spreads - The spreads include those of corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, soybeans 1 - 5, soybean meal 1 - 5, soybean oil 1 - 5, palm oil 1 - 5, eggs 1 - 5, and live pigs 1 - 5 [6][7][11][15] 4.2 Contract Basis - The basis includes those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][17][18][23] Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won many awards and has rich experience in leading the team [27]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures experience and has won many awards [27]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by many media [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, and it is advisable to sell on rallies. For palm oil, it is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves. For sugar, it is suggested to wait for the weakening of the rebound strength and then look for opportunities to short. For cotton, the upward space of cotton prices is expected to be relatively limited in the short term. For eggs, it is advisable to wait and see. For pigs, it is recommended to establish reverse hedging positions on rallies in the medium term and short gradually after reaching the pressure level [2][4][7][10][13][16][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined. The price increase triggered hedging by US farmers, and the Brazilian premium decreased slightly, with the import cost rising slightly. On Wednesday, the domestic soybean meal spot price rose slightly by 20 yuan, with the East China price reported at 2910 yuan/ton. The trading volume of soybean meal was 53,500 tons, and the提货 volume was 198,800 tons. MYSTEEL statistics show that the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises increased by 0.03 days to 7.95 days last week. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased, and the soybean inventory decreased month - on - month, with the total inventory being high and in a slight de - stocking trend. MYSTEEL expects the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills to be 2.3392 million tons this week, compared with 2.3674 million tons last week. As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season has reached 36% of the expected level, and the rainfall in the main planting areas of Brazil is at a neutral level [2]. Strategy View - In terms of import cost, there are recent signals in the market that China may import US soybeans, but the rise in US soybeans may be offset by the decline in the Brazilian premium, and the import cost will mainly oscillate. The domestic soybean inventory is at the highest level in recent years, the soybean meal inventory is large, and the crushing profit is under pressure. The expectation of loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still advisable to sell on rallies [4]. Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared with the same period last month, the exports in the first 15 days increased by 12.3% - 16.2%, the exports in the first 20 days increased by 3.4%, and the exports in the first 25 days decreased by 0.4%. SPPOMA data show that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month compared with the same period last month, the production in the first 20 days increased by 2.71%, and the production in the first 25 days increased by 1.63%. Indonesia said that due to good weather, the palm oil production in 2025 may increase by 10%. On Wednesday, domestic oils declined. The recent high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppressed the market. Indonesia's August production data still significantly exceeded previous years, and the expectation of tight supply in the first quarter of next year has been loosened due to the current high - yield situation. There are also rumors that local Indonesia is calling for a suspension of the implementation of B50 in 2026. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. Strategy View - The unexpected high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the performance of the palm oil market. The current situation of large supply and inventory accumulation of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's current high production cannot continue, the de - stocking time point may come earlier. However, if Indonesia maintains its recent high - yield record, palm oil will continue to be weak. Strategically, it is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves [7]. Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated strongly. The closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou sugar was reported at 5494 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 5660 - 5760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups is 5600 - 5640 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills is 5790 - 5920 yuan/ton, with the quotation rising or falling differently from the previous trading day; the basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) is 165 yuan/ton. The General Administration of Customs announced Order No. 280 on October 14, 2025, "Regulations on the Registration of Overseas Food Production Enterprises for Import by Customs". The new regulations change the registration of overseas food enterprises from "prior approval" to "automatic renewal + dynamic revocation", strengthen the regulatory responsibilities of overseas official agencies, and achieve "loose entry and strict management". Recently, the number of enterprises whose import of Thai syrup and premixed powder has been suspended by customs has increased from 35 to 44, and only 16 are effectively left. The scope of suspended imports has been expanded from under tariff number 170290 to under tariff number 2106906 [9]. Strategy View - In the short term, the tightening of import control on syrup and premixed powder has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, since September, the data of sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil have been bearish, and the raw sugar price has continued to decline. Moreover, entering the 2025/26 new crushing season, it is currently estimated that there will be an increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, and the upward space of raw sugar is limited, resulting in a large profit margin for out - of - quota imports. It is recommended to wait for the weakening of the rebound strength and then look for opportunities to short [10]. Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated strongly. The closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was reported at 13620 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) is 1220 yuan/ton. On October 28, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the purchase index of hand - picked cotton was 7.05 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day. According to the latest data released by Mysteel, as of the week of October 24, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, unchanged from the previous week, 7.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [12]. Strategy View - Fundamentally, the demand was weak during the peak consumption season this year, and the operating rate of the downstream industrial chain declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. Moreover, there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new year in China, and the pressure of selling for hedging is large. Recently, the continuous small increase in the purchase price of new cotton has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, but the fundamentals are still weak, and the upward space of cotton prices is expected to be relatively limited in the short term [13]. Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was stable or declined. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas dropped 0.06 yuan to 2.88 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained at 2.67 yuan/jin. The supply was relatively stable. Most breeding units actively sold their goods, while terminal purchases were relatively cautious, and the overall trading volume in the market decreased. The national egg price may be stable or decline today [15]. Strategy View - There is still an expectation of a rebound in the spot price, but the space may be limited due to the high supply. The focus of the futures market game is whether the increase in the spot price can cover the premium of the futures. Currently, it is the traditional stocking season for eggs, and the downward space of the spot price is limited. However, in terms of driving force, there is an expectation of a small increase but no large - scale increase. The open interest in the futures market is high, and it is judged that the market is bottoming out, but the space is not optimistic, and the rhythm may be repeated. It is advisable to wait and see [16]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price rose and fell differently. The average price in Henan dropped 0.08 yuan to 12.67 yuan/kg, the average price in Sichuan rose 0.07 yuan to 12.34 yuan/kg, and the average price in Guangxi rose 0.3 yuan to 12.48 yuan/kg. The breeding side in the southern market may continue to reduce the supply, and the price may rise again. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream in the northern market declined. Today, in order to ensure smooth sales, the breeding side may choose to lower the selling price [18]. Strategy View - Currently, the slaughter scale and the theoretical future slaughter volume are still high, and the decline in weight during this round of price drop is limited. In the medium term, under the relatively high supply pressure, the pig price may still be more likely to fall than to rise. In the short term, there is a resonance affected by multiple factors, and the factors supporting the rebound of the spot price still exist. In the context of high open interest, the futures market is easily affected by the change in driving force and may fluctuate repeatedly. It is judged that there will be a short - term rebound. In the medium term, it is advisable to gradually establish reverse hedging positions on rallies and short gradually after reaching the pressure level [19].

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report title: "Meal Daily Report - October 29, 2025" [1] - Report summary: Supply bullish factors are fully reflected, and the overall upward movement of the market is restricted [1] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - **Soybean meal**: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2969, 2803, and 2923 respectively, with changes of -6, +8, and +11. Spot basis varies by region, such as 50 in Tianjin, -20 in Dongguan, etc. [3] - **Rapeseed meal**: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2373, 2330, and 2426 respectively, with changes of -23, -8, and -7. Spot basis also varies by region, like 37 in Nantong, 127 in Guangdong, etc. [3] Monthly Spreads - **Soybean meal**: The 15 - spread is 166 (down 14 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is -120 (down 3), and the 91 - spread is -46 (up 17). [3] - **Rapeseed meal**: The 15 - spread is 43 (down 15 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is -96 (down 1), and the 91 - spread is 53 (up 16). [3] Cross - Variety Futures Spreads - The 01 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 596 (up from 579 yesterday), and the 09 spread is 497 (up from 479 yesterday). The 01 oil - meal ratio is 2.739 (down from 2.750 yesterday). [3] Spot Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 473 (up 1 from yesterday), the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 270 (down 10), and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 673 (up 21). [3] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - **US soybeans**: Although the recent trend is strong, the overall fundamental changes are limited. The market generally expects a slight downward adjustment in the new - crop yield per unit, which supports the price to some extent. The current price reflects the positive impact of US soybean exports, but the upward space is limited without other positive factors. [4] - **South America**: In Brazil, the new - crop sowing has started and is progressing rapidly. Institutions generally expect a bumper harvest. With limited demand growth, the export volume is expected to increase significantly. The old - crop has good export and crushing performance, but the subsequent crushing drive may be limited. In Argentina, the old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and the recent crushing and export have increased significantly, with the pressure improving. [4] Domestic Market - **Soybean meal**: The overall supply and demand are relatively loose. The oil mill operating rate has increased, the supply is sufficient, and the提货 volume has also increased, while the inventory remains high. As of October 24, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 2.3674 million tons, the operating rate is 65.13%, the soybean inventory is 7.5129 million tons (down 174,100 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.26%, and up 1.9282 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 34.53%), and the soybean meal inventory is 1.0546 million tons (up 78,400 tons from last week, an increase of 8.03%, and up 1,800 tons year - on - year, an increase of 0.17%). [5] - **Rapeseed meal**: The domestic demand has gradually weakened recently. The oil mill operating rate has decreased, the rapeseed supply is relatively low, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory remains high, with overall supply pressure. As of the week of October 24, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills is 600,000 tons (unchanged from last week), and the rapeseed meal inventory is 710,000 tons (down 70,000 tons from last week). [5] Group 4: Macro - analysis - Recent market is more affected by macro factors. The Sino - US negotiations have released positive signals, leading to a significant increase in the US soybean market. The meeting involves issues such as 301 shipping fees and possible tariff issues for agricultural products. However, the impact on the domestic long - term supply reduction is limited, and the subsequent import volume is still highly uncertain. After the short - term market reaction, the macro impact is expected to be relatively limited, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes. [6] Group 5: Logic Analysis - The market shows a volatile trend. After the previous bullish factors are fully reflected, the upward momentum has decreased. The US soybean market has fully reflected the previous bullish factors and is now in a volatile state. The overall supply in the international soybean market is still relatively loose. The smooth progress of Brazil's new - crop sowing is expected to result in a relatively high yield, with limited price support and obvious overall pressure. The domestic soybean meal supply and demand are relatively loose, and there is still inventory pressure. The rapeseed meal inventory is relatively low, but the demand is also average, and the subsequent import volume is relatively low, with limited price fluctuations. The decline in the monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal today is mainly due to macro factors, and the subsequent decline space is expected to be limited, but there may still be pressure for rapeseed meal monthly spreads due to average demand. [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract [8] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8] Group 7: Soybean Pressing Profits - Pressing profits vary by origin, shipping date, and contract. For example, for Brazilian soybeans with a December shipping date, the CNF is 243, the CBOT is 999.25, and the contract is F. The exchange rate is 7.0228, the soybean meal price is 2969, the soybean oil price is 8132. The disk pressing profit is -190.08, the spot pressing profit is -211.58, compared with yesterday's -212.23 and -233.73, with a change of 22.15. [9]