Group 1 - Kevin Hassett, a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair, emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence and consensus among committee members for rate adjustments [2][3] - Hassett's candidacy faces opposition due to concerns that his close relationship with President Trump may influence his decision-making [2][3] - The prediction market shows a shift in favor of Kevin Warsh, with a 46% probability of his nomination compared to Hassett's 39%, reflecting growing doubts about Hassett's candidacy [3] Group 2 - President Trump has been critical of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, despite appointing him, and has called for significant rate cuts [5] - Recent employment data shows a steady upward trend, with private sector jobs increasing, although affected by government shutdowns [5] - Hassett maintains a positive outlook on employment growth through 2026, indicating confidence in the labor market [5]

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Hassett, a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence and consensus-building in monetary policy decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Qualifications and Support - Hassett supports the notion that his close relationship with President Trump should not disqualify him from the Fed Chair position, arguing that collaboration with the president does not undermine his qualifications [2]. - There is growing internal resistance within Trump's advisory team regarding Hassett's candidacy, with concerns that he may prioritize presidential directives over the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and full employment [1][2]. Group 2: Market Predictions and Candidate Probabilities - As doubts about Hassett's candidacy increase, Kevin Warsh's probability of being nominated for the Fed Chair has risen to approximately 46%, while Hassett's probability has decreased to around 39% [2]. - Just a week prior, Hassett's nomination probability was as high as 77%, with Warsh at only 10% [2]. Group 3: Economic Context and Employment Data - Hassett's comments come amid the release of non-farm employment data for November and part of October, which he describes as showing a robust upward trend in private sector employment [4]. - He expresses a positive outlook on employment growth through 2026, despite acknowledging the impact of government shutdowns on employment data [4].

海外利率周报 20251216 担忧明年降息不及预期，美债利率下行受阻 glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 16 日 宏观经济指标点评 就业：美国 2025 年 10 月 JOLTS 就业职位空缺数量为 767 万个，略高于 9 月份的 765.8 万个。同时，雇主招聘数量为 514.9 万个，低于 9 月份的 536.7 万个和去年 10 月的 535 万个。本周美国初请失业金人数为 23.6 万人，高于市场预期的 22 万人，较 前值 19.2 万人大幅回升。据 JOLTS 报告，上周初请失业金人数的反弹终结了此前连 续数周的下降趋势。 主要海外市场利率回顾 美国：担忧明年降息不及预期，美债利率下行受阻。本周（2025 年 12 月 5 日-2025 年 12 月 12 日，下同）美债收益率变动：1 个月期（-6bp，3.76%）、1 年期（-7bp， 3.54%）、2 年期（-4bp，3.52%）、5 年期（+3bp，3.75%）、10 年期（+5bp，4.19%）、 30 年期（+6bp，4.85%）。鉴于 2025 年降息预期已经实现，市场对于 2026 年上半 年的降息展望维持在 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's uncertainty regarding whether his economic policies will help the Republican Party win the upcoming midterm elections reflects a disconnect between economic data and voter sentiment [1][2]. Economic Performance - Despite boasting about creating a strong economy, Trump acknowledges that the full effects of recent economic activities may not be felt until the second quarter of next year [1]. - Employment growth has been slow, and the unemployment rate has risen, leading many Americans to not feel the benefits of macroeconomic growth [2]. Federal Reserve Criticism - Trump expresses frustration with the Federal Reserve, suggesting that the market's negative reaction to positive economic news is due to fears of a hawkish stance from the Fed [3][4]. - He challenges the traditional data-driven decision-making of the Fed, arguing that good news should not automatically lead to higher interest rates [4][5]. Tariff Policy - Trump reiterates his reliance on tariffs, claiming they have brought wealth to the U.S. and provided leverage in international negotiations [6]. - His tariff policies are facing scrutiny from the Supreme Court, and he warns that a ruling against them would be detrimental to the U.S. [7]. Government Intervention - Trump defends direct government intervention in the economy, indicating that the government is considering investing in defense and semiconductor companies [7]. - This industrial policy approach could have significant implications for investors and market structures in related sectors [7]. Inflation Challenges - Inflation remains a core challenge for Trump, who blames it on the previous administration while claiming to have reduced prices [9]. - Rising prices for essential goods like coffee and beef have become a point of attack for Democrats, highlighting the impact of Trump's economic policies on household costs [9].

作为美联储下任主席的热门人选，白宫国家经济委员会主席哈西特明确表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普 对政策利率的制定没有任何决策权。他可能意识到了市场 ...

淡水泉（香港）总裁兼首席经济学家陶冬撰文指出，无论鲍威尔在记者会上讲了什么，点阵图如何形容 未来利率走势，其实都不重要了。FOMC成员明年2月换人，美联储主席明年5月换人，接任主席及新班 子的立场才更重要。笔者认为，美国进入了"美联储双主席"的模式。这意味着鲍威尔未来工作会受到更 大掣肘，也因此带来利率政策的更大不确定性，这对债市稳定不利。 但是从另一角度看，若如笔者所 料哈塞特明年5月起担任美联储掌舵人，美国明年下半年利率可能迅速下降。当前白宫的不支持率创下 历史新高，共和党在刚结束的州市选举中全军覆没，令美国总统特朗普对明年中期选举深感忧虑，他和 哈塞特会迅速将政策利率推向中性水平（市场估计2.5%），如若经济或市场有风吹草动，不排除利率 进一步下调。美联储正在变天。 （第一财经） 来源：滚动播报 ...

市场普遍预期12月议息会议将维持利率不变。近期发布的多项数据显示，欧元区经济虽仍面临外需疲弱 与企业投资谨慎等压力，但通胀已从年初高位明显回落至11月的2.2%，核心物价继续降温，经济景气 指标也出现阶段性改善。 欧元兑美元的汇率近期整体于1.15-1.17范围波动。巴克莱银行全球外汇策略主管西莫斯·菲奥塔基斯表 示，实际上，欧元的实际价值远比表面看起来要高得多，贸易加权与关税调整后衡量，实际欧元强度远 高于名义水平。他认为从贸易加权的角度来看，欧元正处于历史高位，如果考虑到美国关税，欧元汇率 甚至更接近1.28美元。 从贸易角度看，分析人士指出，强势欧元意味着进口商品和服务变得更便宜，这直接降低了欧元区内部 的物价水平，有助于将整体通胀率拉回到欧洲央行2%的目标之下。同时，进口成本下降有利于消费， 缓解家庭与企业成本压力，这在当前通胀温和、经济复苏基础尚存的背景下，对内需构成支持。 最新数据显示，欧元区9月份对华贸易逆差为330亿欧元，这一数据引起欧洲市场的普遍担忧。市场认 为，对华市场出口逆差与强势欧元结合，会给欧元区带来显著的通缩压力，并可能对欧元区的出口竞争 力造成负面影响，从而迫使欧洲央行考虑降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh has emerged as the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with support from Trump and Jamie Dimon, increasing his nomination probability to 41% [1][5]. Group 1: Candidate Support and Probabilities - Trump stated that Warsh aligns with his views on monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate cuts [3]. - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed strong support for Warsh, calling him a "great Federal Reserve Chair" [7]. - The probability of Kevin Hassett's nomination has decreased from approximately 71% to 52%, while Warsh's has risen to 41% [5]. Group 2: Background of Kevin Warsh - Warsh, 55, is currently a visiting scholar at Stanford University and has a background in investment banking at Morgan Stanley [9]. - He served as the Executive Secretary of the White House National Economic Council from 2002 to 2006 and was a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 [9]. - Warsh previously interviewed for the Federal Reserve Chair position during Trump's first term but was ultimately not selected [9].

美联储主席热门人选再添一位。 在美国总统特朗普透露凯文・沃什是美联储主席头号人选后，目前，在预测平台上，沃什的当选概率从 约15%飙升至最高40%。与此同时，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特出任下届美联储主席的概 率，也从不久前的80%一度跌破60%。 当地时间12月12日，据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普在采访中被直接问及沃什是否已是其目前的首选人 选时，特朗普回应道："没错，我认为他就是。" 此外，特朗普于当天还重申了其长期持有的立场，即美联储主席应就利率政策向总统征询意见。当地时 间12月10日，美联储宣布下调基准利率25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.5%—3.75%。彼 时，特朗普曾评论称，降息幅度太小，本可以更大。 沃什支持率飙升 据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普于12月12日表示，凯文・沃什已跻身其心目中美联储下一任主席候选名 单的榜首，不过其他候选人仍在竞争之列。 据悉，当被问及沃什是否已是其头号人选时，特朗普回应称："没错，我认为他就是。" 沃什本人曾担任美联储理事，此前虽入选特朗普的候选人名单，但并非热门人选。不过，在上周三（12 月10日）与特朗普会面后，他进一步赢得了特朗普的青睐。据 ...

美联储主席热门人选再添一位。 在美国总统特朗普透露 凯文・沃什是美联储主席 头号人选后，目前，在预测平台上， 沃什的当选概率从约 15%飙升至最高40%。与此同时，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特出任下届美联储主席的概率，也从 不久前的80%一度跌破60%。 当地时间12月12日，据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普在采访中被直接问及沃什是否已是其目前的首选人选时， 特朗普回应道："没错，我认为他就是。" 此外，特朗普于当天还重申了其长期持有的立场，即美联储主席应就利率政策向总统征询意见。当地时间12月 10日，美联储宣布下调基准利率25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.5%—3.75%。彼时，特朗普曾评 论称，降息幅度太小，本可以更大。 沃什支持率飙升 据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普于12月12日表示，凯文・沃什已跻身其心目中美联储下一任主席候选名单的榜 首，不过其他候选人仍在竞争之列。 据悉，当被问及沃什是否已是其头号人选时，特朗普回应称："没错，我认为他就是。" 沃什本人曾担任美联储理事，此前虽入选特朗普的候选人名单，但并非热门人选。不过，在上周三（12月10 日）与特朗普会面后，他进一步赢得了特朗普的青 ...