汇通财经APP讯——在美联储政策决策的关键时刻，新任理事米兰以独立姿态亮相，他公开表示将独立 分析经济数据，并在周一（9月22日）的纽约发言中全面阐述自己的利率观点。这位新上任的理事强 调，自己没有从特朗普总统那里收到任何政策指示，这不仅缓解了市场对美联储独立性的疑虑，还凸显 出当前利率政策的分歧。米兰支持更大幅度的降息，与美联储主流共识形成鲜明对比，而明尼亚波利斯 联储主席卡什卡利则认为米兰的上任不过是常规人事变动，并对美联储的公众信任表示乐观。整个事件 反映出美国经济政策在就业、通胀和政治影响之间的微妙平衡，值得投资者密切关注。 米兰的独立政策宣言 米兰作为美联储的新任理事，在上周五（9月19日）的公开表态中明确强调了自己的独立性。他表示， 自己将基于对经济数据的客观解读来制定政策，不会受到外部干扰。这位理事刚刚在上周的会议中宣誓 就职，并在会上支持降息50个基点，这让他成为唯一持此观点的人。米兰承认自己的立场与众不同，并 承诺将在周一的发言中详细解释背后的经济逻辑和计算过程。他认为，当前的利率水平距离"中性"还有 较大差距，经济中不存在明显的通胀风险，尤其是在严格移民政策的影响下，住房需求将受到抑制，从 ...

Core Insights - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with prices dropping from a peak of $3707.40 per ounce to $3658.25 within a day, reflecting market fragility and uncertainty [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00-4.25% was expected to support gold prices, yet the market reacted with a short-term decline, indicating a complex interplay of investor sentiment and policy expectations [3][10] - Despite the recent price drop, gold has seen a cumulative increase of approximately 39% since the beginning of 2025, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [7][10] Market Dynamics - The dollar index rose by about 0.25% to 96.87 points during the same period, which negatively impacted gold prices as a stronger dollar increases the cost of gold for non-dollar holders [5][10] - Central banks' consistent accumulation of gold reserves serves as a long-term support for gold prices, contrasting with the short-term trading behaviors of retail investors [7][10] - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as trade tensions and regional conflicts, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, contributing to a more optimistic outlook for the gold market despite short-term fluctuations [7][10] Technical Analysis - The $3550 level is identified as a critical short-term support for gold prices; breaching this level could trigger further selling pressure, while maintaining it could indicate a temporary correction [10][12] - The market's reaction to interest rate changes is layered; short-term expectations may lead to a rebalancing of funds between risk assets and safe havens, while long-term trends suggest that lower rates will enhance gold's relative attractiveness [10][15] Trading Behavior - During periods of high volatility, trading platforms experienced delays in price updates, highlighting the imperfect functioning of markets under stress and amplifying investor caution [8][12] - Opinions within the market are divided on whether the recent price drop presents a buying opportunity or if it is prudent to wait for clearer policy signals, reflecting a complex market sentiment [12][15] - Hedge funds often adjust their positions using options strategies to mitigate downside risks, indicating a sophisticated approach to managing market exposure [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and began selling its ETF holdings, marking the fifth consecutive meeting of no change, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged is influenced by domestic political uncertainties, global economic changes, and persistent inflation pressures [2]. - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, down from 3.1% in July, marking the lowest level since November of the previous year [2]. - The core CPI, excluding fresh food, indicates strong inflation momentum, while food inflation remains a drag on overall inflation [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan acknowledges signs of economic weakness but maintains that the economy is on a path of moderate recovery, with stable private consumption and moderate growth in capital expenditure [3]. - Two members of the Bank of Japan's policy board expressed a hawkish stance, advocating for a 25 basis point rate hike to 0.75%, citing rising price risks [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the USD/JPY exchange rate fell by 0.3% to 147.53, while the Nikkei 225 index reached a historical high, increasing by 1.19% [5]. - The market anticipates another rate hike from the Bank of Japan within the year, with focus shifting to the implications of the upcoming October meeting [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a decline in gold and silver prices, with the most active gold futures for December 2025 dropping by $39.6 to close at $3678.2 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 1.07% [1] - Short-term futures traders are taking profits, leading to a market correction that may persist for some time [1] - Despite the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut aligning with market expectations, the market is still processing the implications of this decision and its signals [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England announced on the same day that it would maintain its bank rate at 4.00%, which did not provide new upward momentum for gold prices [1] - Analysts believe that despite the recent drop in gold prices following the Fed's rate cut, there remains strong buying interest in the gold market [1] - Silver futures for December delivery also saw a slight decline, with prices falling by 5.2 cents to close at $42.100 per ounce, a decrease of 0.12% [1]

美联储周三一如预期降息，并暗示将进一步宽松，但政策制定者对利率路径的看法存在分歧。 随着美元复苏势头减弱，欧元缩减此前跌幅，重返1.1830上方。 适度的风险偏好可能在周四支撑美元的反弹。 美联储将基准利率下调25个基点至4.0%-4.25%区间，点阵图的中值预计未来两次会议将进一步降息两次，突显出美联储立场较6月份预测的温和转变。 美联储在其经济预测摘要中，将美国今明两年国内生产总值（GDP）增长预测分别从1.4%和1.6%上调至1.6%和1.8%。预计PCE通胀率在今年年底将保持在 3%，并在2026年降至2.6%，高于6月份预测的2.4%。失业率在今年年底将达到4.5%，与之前的预测持平，并在2026年降至4.4%。6月份，对明年的预测为 4.5%。 在利率方面，政策制定者表现出更广泛的分歧。预测中值显示，美联储将在今年最后一个季度进一步降息50个基点，其中最强硬的预测倾向于12月份的 4.4%的利率，而最低的预测——可能是特朗普新任命的美联储主席斯蒂芬·米兰——则倾向于2.9%的利率。这种差异使中值预测受到质疑。 宏观经济数据方面，周二公布的数据显示，美国8月份零售额环比增长0.6%，同比增长5%，分 ...

Market Movements - US stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures up by 0.07% while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures down by 0.04% and 0.07% respectively [1] - European indices had varied performances with Germany's DAX up by 0.04%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.23%, while France's CAC40 down by 0.24% and the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 0.10% [2][3] - WTI crude oil fell by 0.64% to $64.11 per barrel, and Brent crude oil decreased by 0.60% to $68.06 per barrel [3][4] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The focus has shifted from inflation to the labor market, with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve to support a weakening US labor market [5] - Market participants are betting on a 50 basis point rate cut, with some traders anticipating a total of 75 basis points in cuts over the remaining FOMC meetings this year [5] - Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates that when the S&P 500 is within 1% of its historical high and the Fed cuts rates, the index averages a 15% increase over the following year [6] Commodity Insights - Gold prices surged past $3,700 per ounce, driven by expectations of significant rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $5,000 if certain market conditions are met [6] - A trader has made a substantial bet that Brent crude oil prices will fall below $50 per barrel by year-end, citing expected oversupply in the market despite geopolitical risks [7] Company News - Tesla reached a confidential settlement regarding the 2019 Autopilot fatality case, agreeing to pay $243 million in compensation [8][9] - NVIDIA is collaborating with OpenAI and other tech giants to invest £11 billion in the UK to advance AI infrastructure [9] - Eli Lilly's oral weight loss drug showed a significant 11.2% weight reduction in clinical trials, potentially reshaping obesity treatment accessibility [10] - AstraZeneca's asthma drug Fasenra failed to meet primary endpoints in a COPD study, marking a setback for the company [10] - GlaxoSmithKline announced a commitment to invest $30 billion in the US over the next five years, emphasizing the US as a priority market [11] - New Fortress Energy secured a $4 billion LNG supply agreement with Puerto Rico, significantly boosting its stock price [11] Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data includes US building permits and new housing starts for August, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and economic forecast [12]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing fluctuations with various currencies showing mixed trends against the US dollar, while key economic indicators and central bank decisions are influencing market sentiment. Group 1: US Dollar Developments - The Trump administration plans to appeal a court ruling regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook [2] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming remarks on the job market may indicate future policy directions [2] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that if President Trump views inflation as a problem, he would be open to interest rate hikes [2] - The White House's National Economic Council Director Hassett anticipates economic growth rates exceeding 3% [2] - Wells Fargo Investment Institute raised its 2025 US GDP growth forecast to 2%, up from 1.3% [2] Group 2: Non-USD Currency Movements - The euro against the US dollar reached a new high of 1.1878, the highest since September 2021 [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) remains cautious, with Governing Council member Escrivá emphasizing the need for flexibility amid ongoing uncertainty [4] - The ECB's Vice President Guindos stated that current interest rates are appropriate [5] Group 3: Canadian and Japanese Currency Insights - The swap market indicates a 93% probability of the Bank of Canada cutting rates, up from 87% prior to the CPI release [5] - Japan's auction of 20-year government bonds saw a subscription rate of 4.00, the highest since 2020 [5] - The offshore Chinese yuan broke the 7.10 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November of the previous year [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD is currently above the 200-period SMA at approximately 1.3480, indicating long-term bullish dominance [8] - The USD/JPY is fluctuating between the Bollinger Bands' middle and lower bands, with potential for a short-term bullish reversal if it breaks above the middle band [9] - The EUR/USD has a key support level at 1.1850, which may trigger buying interest if tested again [9] - The USD/CHF is currently below both the 50-period and 100-period SMAs, indicating short-term bearish momentum [9] - The AUD/USD has a significant support level at 0.6630, which could attract buying interest if approached [10] - The USD/CAD has a critical support level at 1.3680, which may also draw market attention if tested [10] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include US housing starts and building permits at 20:30, followed by the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision and a press conference at 21:45 [11] - The Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook at 02:00, followed by a press conference by Chair Powell at 02:30 [11]

美联储最新利率决定将于北京时间周四凌晨2:00公布，鲍威尔的新闻发布会将于凌晨2:30开始。 市场预计，美联储将降息25个基点，以支撑日益疲软的美国劳动力市场，这标志着政策转向——此前由 于担忧关税引发的通胀，美联储接连多个会议按兵不动。 这一政策转折发生在特朗普持续施压的背景下。他本周一直要求美联储进行"大幅降息"。政治戏剧性场 面也一度为本次政策会议谁将出席增添了悬念，不过在参议院确认了新任美联储理事米兰、法院的裁决 暂时允许库克留任后，阵容很可能已无变数。 除了这些"插曲"之外，投资者将密切关注主席鲍威尔的发言，并解析最新经济预测，以寻找未来几个月 利率路径的线索。 美联储观察人士预计，由于官员们在就业和通胀问题上存在分歧，他们不会承诺采取激进的降息步伐。 美国银行高级经济学家阿迪亚·博哈维（Aditya Bhave）表示："除非劳动力市场出现持续恶化迹象，否 则每一次降息都会比前一次更困难。" 投票阵容与内部分歧 尽管央行的利率决定将是许多美联储观察人士关注的焦点，但围绕利率制定机构——联邦公开市场委员 会（FOMC）组成方面的异常情况，却在会议前主导了新闻头条。 特朗普的盟友米兰于当地时间周二上午宣 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is prepared to adjust interest rates as needed despite controlling inflation, indicating ongoing uncertainty in the economic environment [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - ECB has signaled a reluctance to further lower borrowing costs after eight consecutive rate cuts over the past year [1] - Current consumer price increases are aligning closely with the 2% target, suggesting stability in inflation [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The visibility of the Eurozone economy has improved following a trade agreement between Brussels and Washington [1] - The ECB views the current 2% interest rate level as reasonable, reflecting a successful anti-inflation process [1] - Risks to price stability are described as balanced, while risks to economic growth are slightly skewed to the downside [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appointment of economist Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board is generating significant market attention, particularly as it coincides with an upcoming monetary policy meeting, adding complexity to interest rate expectations [1][4]. Group 1: Appointment and Implications - Miran's confirmation allows him to fill a vacancy and immediately participate in monetary policy decisions, which could influence future interest rate policies, inflation control, and employment targets [1][4]. - His extensive experience in economic policy and commitment to independence and compliance may help stabilize market confidence and alleviate concerns regarding policy independence [4][10]. Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. economy is currently facing a delicate situation, with signs of weakness in the job market and persistent price pressures in certain areas, posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve to balance price stability and employment promotion [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Investors are particularly focused on Miran's stance on interest rate policy; a dovish position could lead to increased bets on further rate cuts, potentially boosting stock markets and risk assets, while a cautious or hawkish stance may temper expectations for easing [8]. - Miran emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence for the health of the economy and financial system, aligning with market expectations for transparency and reduced policy uncertainty [10]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The confirmation of Miran is viewed as a key variable in the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve, suggesting that while short-term market volatility may occur, the long-term outlook could benefit from a more diversified perspective and policy approach [10].