转自：新华财经 新华财经北京1月5日电（吴郑思、郭洲洋）2026年的首个交易日，在金属板块强势带动下，国内商品期 货市场整体偏强。截至1月5日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1591.20点，较前一交易日上涨3.79 点，涨幅0.24%；中证商品期货指数收报2195.67点，较前一交易日上涨5.23点，涨幅0.24%。 分品种来看，金属板块尤其是能源金属和贵金属涨幅居前。其中，兼具贵金属和能源金属属性的钯金大 幅反弹近9%，领涨商品市场；碳酸锂大涨超7%，高点触及13万元／吨上方；铂则略弱于钯，但收盘涨 幅也在6%以上。此外，铜铝锌等基本金属也不同程度走强，沪铝盘中触及近四年新高。相比之下，能 化板块意外走弱，除烧碱大跌近4%以外，SC原油、焦煤也均跌超3%。 地缘局势主导贵金属走强铂钯再度大涨 乐观情绪支撑碳酸锂涨超7% 尽管周末美国突袭委内瑞拉并强行带走总统马杜罗夫妇推高了市场的避险情绪，但原油市场并没有按照 市场预想的"剧本"在周一（1月5日）走强，反倒在远期原油供应趋增和过剩压力持续的基本面之下，弱 势下探。截至收盘，SC原油大幅下挫3.39%，盘中创下半个月新低。虽然受美国石油封锁及制裁压力影 响 ...

宏观方面，有色金属市场行情一片火热，电解铝、铸造铝价格大幅上扬，带动期货市场涨势氛围浓厚。 同时，美国总统特朗普对委内瑞拉发动军事打击并抓捕其总统夫妇，加剧全球对地缘局势的担忧。委内 瑞拉铝土矿储量约34.8亿吨，此次军事冲击引发铝土矿供应忧虑，推动氧化铝价格上涨。 长江有色网1月5日讯，今日氧化铝冲高回落，主力月2605合约早盘高开大涨，午后承压回落整理；截止 当日15：00收盘，氧化铝主力月2605合约报2770元，收涨4元，涨幅0.14%；11个合约累计成交609626 手，比前一交易日减少301716手，跌幅33.11%；持仓量652,841手增加34,687手，涨幅5.61%。 今日国内氧化铝现货价格持稳；据长江有色网ccmn数据，1月5日氧化铝华南地区每吨报2740-2790元之 间，与前一交易日报价持平；华东地区氧化铝每吨报2650-2690元之间，与前一交易日报价持平；西南 地区氧化铝每吨2765-2805元之间，与前一交易日报价持平；西北地区氧化铝每吨报2935-2975元之间， 与前一交易日报价持平。 今日上期所氧化铝期货先扬后抑，主力2605合约日间交易收涨0.14%，国内氧化铝现货价格 ...

1月5日，原油期货盘面表现偏弱，截至发稿主力合约报425.1元/桶，大幅下挫2.61%。 高盛集团表示，美国介入之后，委内瑞拉的石油产量在未来有望进一步提高，这可能会最终对油价造成压力。 机构观点 海通期货：总体来看，因为市场在一季度仍面临明显的供应过剩压力，且过剩压力有增加迹象，预计1月份油价重心仍有望进一步走低。不过， 随着油价进入低价区间，其下跌空间相对受限，且目前全球地缘局势高度不稳定，行情在低位很容易出现反复。 方正中期期货：短期来看，特朗普表示仍然全面禁运委内瑞拉石油，且由于政局动荡，当前该国石油出口已出现瘫痪，短时间内将导致国际市场 上委内瑞拉重油供给的缺失，亚洲一些炼厂将转向俄罗斯、中东等寻找重油替代，这将加剧国际市场上重油供应紧张局面，轻重油价差将被动收 窄。1月份原油市场将面临地缘局势带来的利多扰动与自身供给过剩压力之间的博弈，但地缘因素导致的油价阶段性上涨往往缺乏持续性，且暂 不会改变油价整体下行趋势。 【消息面汇总】 西太平洋银行大宗商品与碳研究主管Rob Rennie表示，在美国采取军事行动之后，随着此前停产的油田重新启动，未来12至18个月内，委内瑞拉 原油产量可能增加30万至50 ...

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities reports that gold prices are expected to rise rapidly and reach new highs by December 2025, although the current fundamentals do not support this rapid increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent market conditions indicate that speculative funds have overflowed into the gold market due to a short squeeze in silver [1] - The company advises caution for market participants in the short term [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - For 2026, CITIC Securities sees a strong likelihood of gold price increases, driven by expectations of dual monetary and fiscal easing in the U.S. and persistent stagflation pressures [1] - The model predicts that under neutral assumptions, international gold prices could exceed $5,100 per ounce by the end of 2026 [1] - The geopolitical landscape and China-U.S. trade relations are expected to remain relatively stable through 2026 [1]

1月2日：因周四元旦休市，直接回顾周三（2025年12月31日）行情，其走势震荡收跌，再度受到年尾的 获利了结调整压力，芝商所一周内第二次再次上调贵金属期货保证金，加上美国至12月27日当周初请失 业金人数录得19.9万人，不及预期，为11月29日当周以来新低等等继续打压金价走低。 走势自亚市开于4338.29美元，最高触及4372.93美元，最低触及4274.54美元，最终收于4314.72美元，日 振幅98.39美元，收跌23.57美元，跌幅0.54%。 展望新的一年新的一天（2026年1月1日）：国际黄金跳空高开近13美金至4327.46美元，并随即反弹走 强，受到地缘局势升级的推动，日内偏看涨反弹为主，但也许留意高开造成的缺口回补。 整体上，黄金2025年最终收涨约64%，连续第三年上涨；白银全年最终收涨147%。两者均创下1979年 以来的最佳年度表现。现货铂金全年大涨128%，现货钯金大涨77%。预计贵金属整体强势将继续延续 至2026年。 前景上，导致2024年及2025年的利好因素；美联储降息，地缘局势，央行购买，ETF流入等仍然存在， 并也有进一步扩大的迹象，故此，展望2026年，随着美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that gold prices are expected to bottom out after the holiday season, with a projected annual high of $5,000 to $5,500 in 2026, driven by various economic factors and market sentiments [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Historically, gold prices tend to rise around the Chinese New Year, indicating a high probability of price increases during this period [1] - The anticipated replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and expectations of three interest rate cuts in 2026 are expected to support gold prices [1] - The overall market trend for gold in 2026 is expected to consist of two phases: initial wide fluctuations with limited declines, followed by accelerated price increases [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors who purchased gold at around $960 should hold their positions, while those who have not yet invested may consider buying below $970 [1] - Opportunities for investment are identified above the $4,300 mark in international gold prices, especially after breaking through $4,400, which could lead to a significant upward trend [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of being patient and prepared for the long-term bullish trend in gold prices, likening market corrections to brief holiday breaks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced fluctuations and a decline due to profit-taking pressures at year-end, with the CME raising margin requirements for precious metals futures for the second time in a week, alongside lower-than-expected initial jobless claims in the U.S. [1][4] Price Movements - On December 31, 2025, gold opened at $4,338.29, reached a high of $4,372.93, a low of $4,274.54, and closed at $4,314.72, resulting in a daily decline of $23.57 or 0.54% [2]. Market Outlook - Despite recent declines, there is a potential for a rebound in gold prices, with expectations of a bullish trend if prices stabilize above $4,400. However, caution is advised as the weekly chart shows weakness, indicating possible further declines before a recovery [4][10]. - The overall performance of precious metals in 2025 was strong, with gold rising approximately 64%, silver up 147%, platinum increasing by 128%, and palladium by 77%, marking the best annual performance since 1979 [4]. Future Projections - Factors supporting the gold market in 2024 and 2025 include potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and ETF inflows. These factors are expected to continue into 2026, with predictions of three unexpected rate cuts in the first half of 2026, potentially driving gold prices up by about 30% [6]. - Technical analysis suggests that if gold prices maintain strength in January, a bullish trend could lead to targets of $5,500 to $6,000. Conversely, a close below $4,300 could indicate a significant correction [8]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly level, gold prices showed a strong rise in December but faced a notable pullback, indicating a risk of larger corrections to the $4,000-$3,900 range or lower. The weekly chart suggests a potential decline towards the 10-week moving average at $4,230 or lower [8]. - Daily analysis indicates that while gold opened strong, it remains under pressure from the $4,400 resistance level, with risks of a pullback before any significant upward movement [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - For gold, key support levels are at $4,310 and $4,295, while resistance levels are at $4,380 and $4,400. For silver, support is at $71.30 and $70.20, with resistance at $74.30 and $75.60 [11].

12月31日：上交易日周二（12月30日）：国际黄金先涨后回撤倒垂收平，其形态上，相对于回落低位则 是止跌看涨信号，故此，操作上，可继续保持低多看涨为主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4334.30美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4323.49美元，之后则保持回升反 弹，一路延续到美盘初录得日内高点4404.18美元，就此遇阻回落，并转一路回撤，最终收于4338.51美 元，日振幅80.69美元，收涨4.21美元，涨幅0.097%。 影响上，日内受到支撑买盘，地缘局势升级，以及贵金属在经历踩踏式抛售后开始逢低入场收复失地， 而持续反弹录得日内高点，但由于均线阻力压制，再加上美盘公布数据集体利空，而再度打压金价持续 回落，最终倒垂收线。 展望今日周三（12月31日）：国际黄金开盘继续受到支撑买盘，先行偏强运行，另外，凌晨美联储会议 纪要：官员分歧严重，但多数支持进一步降息，也对金价产生一定支撑。但美元指数昨日反弹收涨，今 日走势也偏强反弹，则会限制金价多头。 前景上，导致2024年及2025年的利好因素；美联储降息，地缘局势，央行购买，ETF流入等仍然存在， 并也有进一步扩大的迹象，故此，展望2026年，随着美联储政 ...

前景上，导致2024年及2025年的利好因素；美联储降息，地缘局势，央行购买，ETF流入等仍然存在， 并也有进一步扩大的迹象，故此，展望2026年，随着美联储政策分歧加剧、经济数据陆续出炉以及地缘 风险的演变，黄金仍有望延续牛市势头。 技术上，月线级别，金价本月虽再度强势攀升，但在月尾明显回撤，有再度形成倒垂看空，并虚破趋势 线阻力，这暗示后市有再度展开较大回调，回踩4000-3900美元区域或更低位置的风险； 今日周三，黄金开盘继续受到支撑买盘，先行偏强运行，另外，凌晨美联储会议纪要：官员分歧严重， 但多数支持进一步降息，也对金价产生一定支撑。但美元指数昨日反弹收涨，今日走势也偏强反弹，则 会限制金价多头。 日内将可关注美国至12月27日当周初请失业金人数(万人)，市场预期将利好金价，故此，综合来看，日 内走势偏向震荡或者反弹的概率较大，操作上，还是空为辅，多为主。方向继续看涨上行的思路不变。 但参考年初2月及3月的突破走势来看，如1月份再度强势拉升持稳收阳，则将稳健打开进一步牛市行 情，直接跟进看涨至5500-6000美元区域。 日图；金价昨日虽反弹遇阻，但也收取止跌看涨形态，中轨支撑仍未跌破，故此，在跌 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - During the Christmas holiday, trading volume in the overseas market was light, and crude oil prices fell on Friday night. The market is focused on geopolitical situations. Iran claims to have more powerful weapons and warns Israel and the US not to launch attacks. EIA weekly reports and ARA inventories have suspended updates. Global oil inventories are being depleted, while Singapore's oil inventories are increasing. Gasoline and diesel cracks are oscillating weakly, with a large fundamental surplus. If geopolitical risks decline, the surplus in the first quarter will be four times the seasonal level. In the short - term, monthly spreads and absolute prices should be short - allocated [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From December 24 to December 30, 2025, WTI crude oil price changed by -$0.13, BRENT by -$0.61, and DUBAI remained unchanged at $0.00. Other price differentials and related products also showed various changes, such as a -$0.15 change in BRENT 1 - 2 month spread and a $0.58 change in NYMEX RBOB [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran is resuming ballistic missile production. - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending December 26 was 174.7 million barrels, against an expected -230 million barrels and a previous value of 239.1 million barrels. API gasoline inventory was 624.8 million barrels, against an expected 155 million barrels and a previous value of 109 million barrels. API精炼油 inventory was 97.7 million barrels, against an expected 175 million barrels and a previous value of 68.5 million barrels. - Some Fed officials are cautious about further interest rate cuts early next year. - Zelensky denied the claim of a breakdown in talks, stating that the dialogue with the US continues daily. He is negotiating with US President Trump about deploying US troops to Ukraine, and hopes Trump can visit Ukraine [3][4]. 3.3 Inventory - EIA report: US crude oil exports in the week ending December 19 decreased by 1.048 million barrels per day to 3.616 million barrels per day. - US domestic crude oil production in the week ending December 19 decreased by 0.018 million barrels to 13.825 million barrels per day. - Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves increased by 0.405 million barrels to 425 million barrels, a 0.1% increase. - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the week ending December 19 increased by 0.8 million barrels to 413 million barrels, a 0.19% increase. - US crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves in the week ending December 19 were 6.086 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.439 million barrels per day from the previous week [4][5][18].