Core Insights - The report highlights that the service sector is performing strongly, which is expected to drive economic demand expansion both overseas and domestically [1][17][25] - It emphasizes the continuous improvement of the domestic economic fundamentals, indicating a high probability of long-term allocation success for risk assets [1][25][36] - The report notes that improving demand may influence the trading logic of crude oil and gold [1][41][52] Market Review - As of July 30, 2025, global equity assets showed good performance, with MSCI global returning 1.79% and emerging markets at 2.43%, outperforming developed markets [8] - The domestic market performed well, with the CSI All Share Index yielding 5.80% and active equity funds showing exceptional performance, with the China Equity Index rising 8.77% [8][14] - Commodity assets, particularly crude oil and gold, experienced significant price movements influenced by demand and geopolitical factors [8][41] Market Outlook Overseas Market - The service sector's strong performance is expected to positively impact overall economic demand expansion [17][18] - Despite challenges in the manufacturing sector and rising long-term bond yields, the service sector's growth is seen as a stabilizing factor for the global economy [18][20] Domestic Market - The domestic economy has shown resilience, with GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, driven by consumption and exports [25][27] - Industrial value-added increased by 6.8% year-on-year, with notable growth in sectors such as automotive and machinery [25][26] - Consumer spending is improving, with retail sales growing by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by government subsidies and innovative consumption trends [25][27] Asset Allocation Strategy Equity Funds - The report suggests a "core + opportunity" barbell strategy, focusing on stable, high-performance assets while also seeking growth opportunities in sectors like technology and consumer goods [3][36] - Emphasis is placed on long-term allocations in risk assets due to favorable economic conditions [3][36] Fixed Income Funds - The report recommends focusing on medium to short-duration bonds for better risk-reward ratios, as long-duration bonds may present diminishing returns [3][36] - Financial and interest rate bonds are highlighted as preferred choices for conservative investors [3] QDII Funds - The report indicates that new economic drivers, particularly AI, are accelerating economic demand growth, presenting long-term opportunities for QDII funds [3][41] - Attention is drawn to the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions on crude oil prices and the ongoing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [41][47]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of the new energy vehicle (NEV) market in July 2025, highlighting the impact of government subsidies and the shift from price competition to value competition among manufacturers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - July 2025 is expected to have 23 working days, leading to stable production and sales in the NEV market despite some manufacturers taking summer breaks [1]. - The wholesale sales of NEVs in June increased by 25% year-on-year, with a notable decrease in channel inventory [1]. - The estimated wholesale sales of NEVs in July are projected to reach 1.18 million units, representing a 25% year-on-year growth but a 4% month-on-month decline [2][5]. Group 2: Government Policies and Industry Response - The government's "two new" policy subsidies have significantly boosted market activity, with many regions fully utilizing their initial subsidy funds [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working to regulate competition in the NEV sector, aiming to curb malicious price cuts and promote a focus on technological upgrades and service quality [1]. - Manufacturers are responding to these regulatory changes by adjusting their competitive strategies, resulting in stable promotional activities in the market [1]. Group 3: Manufacturer Performance - Several manufacturers, including Leap Motor, Xiaopeng Motors, and Xiaomi Motors, achieved record high wholesale sales in July, contributing to a robust overall performance in the NEV market [2]. - Data indicates that manufacturers with wholesale sales exceeding 10,000 units accounted for 91.7% of the total NEV sales in June [2]. - The cumulative wholesale sales from January to July 2025 reached 7.63 million units, marking a 35% year-on-year increase [2].

Group 1 - The company, Yuxing Co., Ltd. (300305.SZ), has a wide application of functional polyester films in consumer electronics, new energy, and electrical insulation sectors [1] - The company is actively monitoring the development trends in industries such as robotics and solid-state batteries, aiming to expand the application of functional polyester films in new fields [1]

近日，由中国石油大学(华东)与上海空间电源研究所联合完成的高比能、高安全性锂二次电池材料开发 与应用项目，凭借在锂二次电池材料领域的多项突破性成果，获得山东省科学技术奖技术发明一等奖。 近年来，新能源汽车、航空航天等领域快速发展，对锂二次电池的比能量和安全性提出了更高要求。我 国新能源战略规划及航空航天重大工程明确提出，未来电池比能量需提升至500瓦时/千克以上，但当前 传统锂离子电池依赖高镍三元正极、硅碳负极和有机电解液的组合，比能量已接近350瓦时/千克的理论 极限，且存在严重安全隐患。 二是稳定固/固界面保障电池循环性能。针对金属锂负极与固态电解质界面不稳定的问题，团队开发了 共轭骨架电解质新体系，其"给—受"结构可高效解离锂盐，显著降低界面极化，使固态电池锂离子转移 数达0.839，对锂稳定性超10500小时。同时，团队采用聚合物辅助表面无定形化技术消除晶面错位，降 低界面阻抗，使复合材料离子输运性提升138%。 三是创新制造技术实现高均一度全固态电池量产。团队发明了电极片梯级界面逐层构筑技术，通过流延 成型结合物理沉积，实现阶梯式电极结构可控构筑，平衡了电池高功率特性与循环稳定性。他们开发的 国内首 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Huazhong Securities has given a "buy" rating for Shandong Weida (002026.SZ) based on its leading position in the drill chuck business and diversified industry layout [2] - The global market for power tools is expected to recover, which will drive the development of components [2] - The company is expanding its business layout to create new business segments in renewable energy and high-end intelligent manufacturing [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices trended weakly. The short - term digestion of the anti - involution in the macro - aspect did not lead to better transaction volume with price drops. Downstream buyers still mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In the industrial chain, ore prices and ferronickel prices were weakly stable, but some ferronickel quotes rebounded. The cost line remained low. July and August are traditional off - seasons for stainless steel consumption, and the inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly this week. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, which is beneficial for the increase in nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [8]. - Technically, on the daily K - line, the price is running below the 20 - day moving average. The important support and resistance levels of the Fibonacci retracement are effective. The main funds have not decreased, and short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD indicator shows a death cross, and the KDJ has entered the oversold area with a rebound demand. Overall, it is expected to move in a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: Weak operation this week, with long - term oversupply unchanged. The macro - situation has short - term digestion, downstream purchases are rigid - demand based, and new energy vehicle data is positive [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: Red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% prices remained unchanged from last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price decreased by 2.95%, 3.19%, and 3.10% respectively [14]. - **Nickel Iron**: Low - grade ferronickel in Shandong decreased by 3.03%, while high - grade ferronickel remained unchanged. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals data, high - grade ferronickel increased by 2.5 yuan/nickel, and low - grade ferronickel increased by 100 yuan/ton [13][46][47]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel increased by 0.18% [14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Ore prices were stable, and shipping costs were flat. As of July 31, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 9.9436 million wet tons, an increase of 0.66%. In June 2025, nickel ore imports were 4.3466 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.21%. The market was mostly in a wait - and - see state, and downstream procurement was cautious [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - This week, nickel prices oscillated weakly, and downstream buyers made rigid - demand purchases. The import window opened, and some Norwegian nickel resources increased. In the long - term, supply and demand will both increase, but the oversupply pattern remains. In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37%. The estimated production in July was 36,745 tons. Import and export data also showed certain changes [25][26][30]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Nickel iron prices were weakly stable. In June 2025, China's nickel pig iron production was 23,300 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.35%. The import volume in June was 1.041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50.0% [45][49][52]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel increased slightly. In June, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with the 300 - series production decreasing by 2.28% month - on - month. The import volume was 109,500 tons, and the export volume was 390,000 tons. As of August 1, the national inventory was 1.1112 million tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons, while the 300 - series inventory increased by 6,700 tons [59][64][71]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In June 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.4% and 26.7%. From January to June 2025, the production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [77][78]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, the price is below the 20 - day moving average. The Fibonacci retracement levels are effective. The main funds are still active, short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD shows a death cross, and the KDJ is in the oversold area, indicating a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Combing Summary - **Influence on Nickel Prices**: Nickel ore and ferronickel are neutral - bearish; refined nickel is neutral; stainless steel is neutral; new energy is neutral - bullish [88]. - **Trading Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [90].

2025年08月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：宏观淡化回归基本面，钢价低位震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供给端扰动仍存，宽幅震荡或延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：弱势格局 | 6 | | 多晶硅：短期情绪继续降温 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）3 月 3 日加拿大安大略省省长福特针对美国关税威胁，提出安大略省的矿产也是关税斗争的关键， 或将停止向美国出口镍。 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 4 日 镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡 不锈钢：宏观淡化回归基本面，钢价低位震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

入夏以来，全国用电负荷屡创新高。据中国电力企业联合会相关负责人介绍，从用电量增速看，新动能 支撑作用强劲，与新质生产力相关的装备制造业和消费品制造业保持了较强的市场韧性。 笔者认为，除气温因素外，用电量数字变化的背后，也隐藏着中国经济发展的新动能与新趋势。从用电 结构来看，新兴产业用电量延续增长势头，折射出我国经济结构的优化与新质生产力的推进。 其一，新兴产业成为拉动用电量增长的"主力军"。 中国电力企业联合会7月30日发布的《2025年上半年全国电力供需形势分析预测报告》显示，新兴产业 对用电负荷增长的贡献十分显著。在国家"两新""两重"等政策加力扩围下，新质生产力成长壮大，相关 产业用电量增速迅猛。人工智能、新能源等热门赛道拉动相关行业用电量高速增长，6月份，互联网数 据服务用电量同比增长44.6%，软件和信息技术服务业用电量同比增长17.4%，新能源汽车整车制造用 电量同比增长13.0%。 当前，我国新兴产业正处于快速扩张期。以新能源汽车产业为例，近年来，在政策支持、技术进步和市 场需求的多重推动下，我国新能源汽车产销量持续高速增长。不仅整车制造规模不断扩大，其上下游产 业链如电池生产、充电桩建设等也蓬 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the multi - empty game intensifies, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the disk margin follows macro - sentiment changes [4]. - For stainless steel, as the macro influence fades and it returns to the fundamentals, steel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Although there are some positive factors, high inventory and high supply elasticity may drag down steel prices [5]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the resumption progress of upstream factories. The market is affected by upstream resumption expectations, and the price shows a weak trend [27]. - For polysilicon, there may be a short - term correction, and it is recommended to hold positions cautiously. The market is policy - driven, and prices may return to the fundamentals in the short term [27]. - For lithium carbonate, the "sports - style anti - involution" cools down, and it is necessary to focus on the progress of mineral license approvals in Jiangxi. The price has dropped significantly, and the unilateral price will fluctuate widely before the event is clearly defined [61]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.1.1 Fundamentals - **Nickel**: The influence of macro - sentiment on the fundamentals is marginal, and the fundamentals determine the elasticity. After the contradiction in the ore end fades, the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range shock judgment. The global refined nickel inventory is increasing, and the low - cost supply increment in the long - term drags down the disk. Although the inventory of the ferronickel link has decreased, the boost to nickel prices is limited [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro influence fades, and it returns to the fundamentals. In August, the production schedule has increased slightly, but the inventory is still high, and the high inventory and high supply elasticity may drag down steel prices. However, the weak upstream profit provides some cost support [5]. 3.1.2 Inventory Changes - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons. The nickel - iron inventory decreased by 10% month - on - month but increased by 56% year - on - year [6][7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The national stainless steel social total inventory decreased by 0.66% week - on - week. The raw material nickel - iron inventory decreased by 10% month - on - month but was still 56% higher year - on - year [5][8]. 3.1.3 Market News - There are multiple events such as Canada's potential suspension of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and Indonesia's plan to shorten the mining quota period [9]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.2.1 Price Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures market showed a weak shock, and the spot price declined. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 9,050 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan week - on - week), and the Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon price was 9,350 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan week - on - week) [27]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures market rose first and then fell. The spot market had weak transactions, and the Friday closing price was 49,200 yuan/ton [27]. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply side saw a marginal increase in weekly production. Sichuan's production increased, while Xinjiang's decreased. The overall industry inventory decreased again. The demand side had stable short - term demand from downstream polysilicon and silicone [28][29]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term weekly production continued to increase. The upstream inventory decreased, and there was speculative replenishment demand from the downstream. The demand side saw a slight increase in silicon wafer production, but the price transmission was not smooth [29][31]. 3.2.3后市 Views - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to go short on rallies. The expected price range next week is 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the resumption progress of upstream factories [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: There may be a short - term correction. The expected price range next week is 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. It is a policy - driven market, and it is recommended to be cautious when holding positions [32][33]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate 3.3.1 Price Trends - The futures contract prices of lithium carbonate decreased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 68,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11,600 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract closed at 69,240 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9,920 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased by 1,550 yuan/ton to 71,350 yuan/ton [61]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: The price of lithium concentrate decreased from 810 US dollars/ton to 755 US dollars/ton, and the hedging profit of purchased - ore decreased significantly. The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons, a decrease of 7.31% [62]. - **Demand**: Due to the significant strengthening of the basis and end - of - month purchases, the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises increased significantly. The sales volume of new - energy passenger cars increased by 10.28% week - on - week and year - on - year [62]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased. The upstream inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,757 tons to 11,996 tons [63]. 3.3.3后市 Views - It is recommended to hold positions cautiously. The expected operating range of the futures main - contract price is 55,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to conduct arbitrage or hedging. The unilateral price will fluctuate widely before the event is clearly defined [64][65][66].

Core Viewpoint - The sales of new energy heavy trucks have shown explosive growth, with July 2025 sales reaching 16,200 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 185% and setting a new monthly sales record [4][21]. Sales Performance - In July 2025, a total of 16,200 new energy heavy trucks were sold, representing a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 185% [4]. - The average monthly sales from March to July 2025 exceeded 10,000 units, with June and July averaging 15,500 units [5]. - By July 2025, 30 provincial-level administrative regions had new energy heavy truck sales, with 25 regions selling over 100 units in a single month [5][6]. Company Performance - In July 2025, ten companies sold over 400 new energy heavy trucks, with seven companies exceeding 1,000 units [8]. - XCMG led the sales with 2,731 units, followed by Jiefang with 2,407 units and SANY with 2,360 units [8][9]. - The top ten companies in sales for July 2025 mostly achieved significant year-on-year growth, with Foton and Jianghuai leading at 537% and 751% respectively [11]. Cumulative Sales Data - From January to July 2025, cumulative sales reached 82,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 191% [14]. - Four companies, including SANY, XCMG, Jiefang, and Heavy Truck, have cumulative sales exceeding 10,000 units [13][14]. - The cumulative market share of the top five companies (SANY, XCMG, Jiefang, Heavy Truck, and Shaanxi Automobile) all exceeded 10% [19]. Market Trends - The new energy heavy truck market has been driven by both policy and market demand, with a new round of vehicle replacement policies implemented since May 2025 [4]. - The market is expected to continue its robust performance into August 2025, with potential for new sales records [21].