Report Overview - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **East China Third - Grade Rapeseed Oil**: From September to October, the price is OI2601 + 220; from November to December, it is OI2601 + 230. - **East China First - Grade Rapeseed Oil**: In September, the price is OI2601 + 300; in October, it is OI2601 + 320. - **East China First - Grade Soybean Oil**: The spot price is Y2601 + 150, in October it is Y2601 + 160, from October to January it is Y2601 + 190, from February to May it is Y2601 + 130, and from April to July it is Y2605 + 200. - **East China 24 - Degree Palm Oil**: In September, the basis is P2601 - 50, in October it is P2601 + 0, and from October to November it is P2601 + 50. [7] Oil and Fat Comments - The market is dominated by news such as China - Canada and China - US negotiations, showing a high - level volatile trend. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term inventory is at a high level with sufficient supply, but there are concerns about long - term soybean supply, and the cost side provides strong support, so there is limited room for price decline. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by domestic tariff policies, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly. The supply is sufficient before the end of the year based on current inventory and ship purchases, and the long - term situation depends on policies. The market trend is tangled with insufficient driving force. - **Palm Oil**: The production in the palm oil - producing areas may still increase in the third quarter, peaking in September - October and then declining. The high - frequency export data in early September is poor, and the price lacks short - term upward momentum. - **Industry Policy**: Indonesia may first increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel to 45% (B45) and then to B50. - **Operation Suggestion**: For the three major oils, the strategy is mainly to buy low and go long on a single - side basis. [8] 2. Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From September 1 - 10, the production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area down 2.7% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.09% [9]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports (ITS)**: From September 1 - 10, the export volume was 476,610 tons, a 1.2% decrease compared to August 1 - 10. Exports to China were 0.8 million tons, higher than 0.1 million tons in the same period last month [9]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports (SGS)**: From September 1 - 10, the export volume was 244,940 tons, a 27.8% decrease compared to August 1 - 10. Exports to China were 0.83 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons from the previous week [9][10]. - **Policy News**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng led a delegation to Spain to hold talks with the US from September 14 - 17, discussing issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok. Indonesia may first implement a B45 transition plan before the B50 biodiesel policy, reflecting the government's caution and flexibility in promoting renewable energy use and expanding domestic palm oil demand [15]. 3. Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, and the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [13][14][16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Recommendations**: Soybean (★★★), Soybean Meal (★★★), Soybean Oil (★★★), Palm Oil (★★★), Egg (★★★) [1] - **Sell Recommendations**: None - **Hold Recommendations**: Rapeseed Meal (★☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (★☆☆), Corn (★★★), Live Pig (★★★) [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market trends of various agricultural products are mainly volatile, and different products have different driving factors. Market participants need to pay attention to policy, weather, trade results, and other information. For some products, a low - buying strategy can be considered, while for others, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The main domestic soybean futures contract rebounded from a low, basically recovering the decline in the first half of the week. The domestic soybean auction on Friday had poor results, with all 36,112 tons up for sale at a base price of 4,100/4,150 yuan/ton failing to sell. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the market is concerned about future supply pressure due to the expected good harvest this year. Policy and new - crop yield performance should be continuously monitored [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of September 4, the net export sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 541,000 tons, down from 818,000 tons the previous week. As of September 9, about 22% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. The USDA will release a September supply - demand report on the early morning of September 13. The market expects a reduction in soybean yield, which is bullish for US soybeans. The short - term market may continue to be volatile and bullish, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Before the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the market expects a decline in US soybean yield, US soybean exports, and Argentine soybean planting area. Domestic soybean oil and palm oil prices are volatile. In the medium term, palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle. In the long term, biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the US support industrial demand for vegetable oils, and the aging of palm trees may have a bottom - supporting effect on soybean and palm oils. A low - buying strategy can be considered [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products declined slightly. The market is waiting for the US agricultural supply - demand report. Canadian rapeseed harvesting is underway, and there is no new progress in China - Canada economic and trade relations. Ukraine's tariff on oilseed exports may affect its exports to the EU. Canadian and Australian rapeseed may expand into the EU market, potentially stabilizing global rapeseed prices. Domestic rapeseed product demand is suppressed, and inventory reduction is slow. The price center of rapeseed futures may move slightly upward [6] Corn - Corn futures were volatile and bearish today. CGC imported about 190,000 tons of corn for auction, with a 34% transaction rate. Shandong's spot supply remains loose, while the spot price at Northeast ports is strong. New - crop corn may be delayed due to heavy rainfall in the Northeast. Corn prices may be volatile and bullish before the new - crop harvest, and Dalian corn futures may be bearish at the bottom after the harvest enthusiasm fades [7] Live Pig - Live pig futures were volatile and adjusted, with an increase in open interest. Spot prices were stable and slightly bullish. In the second half of the year, supply pressure is high due to the continuous realization of previous production capacity. The market is waiting for the results of the live pig production capacity regulation symposium on September 17. The current main - contract futures price has fallen close to the initial level, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [8] Egg - Egg spot prices continued to rise, while distant - month futures contracts declined significantly, and near - month contracts were supported by the rising spot price. The market is in a seasonal rebound window. The industry has a high inventory problem, and capacity reduction is still needed. The pressure of new - laying hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year, and the peak of this round of production capacity is expected to be reached in the fourth quarter. A long - position strategy can be considered for distant - month contracts next year, and attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds from near - month contracts [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The soybean oil futures market experienced a significant decline, with the main contract showing a notable drop and a significant reduction in open interest, indicating a growing sentiment of capital leaving the market. The sudden negative news regarding the US biodiesel policy and the high inventory levels at domestic ports jointly pressured the market. Despite the support from the high premium of the spot market, the fundamental bearish situation remains difficult to change. In the short term, the market lacks effective positive drivers, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the MPOB and USDA reports and the actual performance of pre - holiday stocking demand [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 10, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed a downward trend. The main contract y2601 closed at 8,256 yuan/ton, down 162 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of - 1.92%. The trading volume was 448,885 lots, and the open interest was 611,919 lots, a decrease of 19,824 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 512,750 lots, and the total open interest was 858,927 lots, a decrease of 21,352 lots from the previous day [4]. - **Related Market**: The soybean oil options traded 34,460 lots throughout the day, with an open interest of 87,808 lots, an increase of 2,445 lots, and 0 lots exercised [7]. 3.2 Spot Market The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang on the day was 8,510 yuan/ton, the settlement price of the main contract y2601 was 8,322 yuan/ton, and the basis was 188 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors On September 9, commodity funds net - sold 1,000 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 3,500 lots of corn futures contracts, 1,000 lots of wheat futures contracts, net - bought 4,000 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and net - sold 5,500 lots of soybean oil futures contracts [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. biodiesel policy draft exceeding expectations, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the central price of oils and fats [11]. - Oils and fats are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand, with a tight expectation. They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term before the inventories in consuming and producing areas are fully accumulated and the negative feedback of demand in consuming areas appears [11]. - Given the current high valuation, it is advisable to observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the strategy of buying after a decline and stabilization [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In August, the three major oils and fats first rose and then fell. The market pre - traded the expectation of tight supply - demand in Indonesia, boosted by events such as Indonesia's confiscation of plantations and China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Subsequently, due to factors like commodity price corrections, high profits of major oils, and sufficient actual supply, the overall price of oils and fats declined. The net long positions of foreign capital seats that were long in August also decreased significantly [11]. - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA August monthly report maintained that the U.S. will increase industrial demand for soybean oil by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. India imported about 1.6 million tons of vegetable oils in August, and its inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. New rapeseed crops show a pattern of increased production [11]. - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: In August, the trading volume of soybean oil was good, while that of palm oil was weak, and the spot basis declined. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 400,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will decline slightly from a high level, the palm oil inventory will remain stable, and the total domestic inventory of oils and fats will remain high in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should consider the market as bullish. For now, it is advisable to observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the strategy of buying after a decline and stabilization [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the basis and basis seasonality charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil's 01 contracts, including the basis between FCPOV25.MDE and FOB palm oil (Malaysia), and the basis between domestic spot prices and futures prices [18][20][22]. 3. Supply Side - **Production and Export**: Charts show the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the monthly production and export of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [27][28][29][30]. - **Weather**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, the NINO 3.4 index, and the impact of La Nina on global climate [32][33]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Charts**: There are charts showing the total inventory of three major domestic oils and fats, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [39][42][44][47]. - **Profit Charts**: Charts show the import profit of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong, the average crushing profit of coastal rapeseed, and the POGO and BOHO spreads related to bio - diesel profits [42][44][58]. 5. Cost Side - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [49][50]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Charts show the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed in China [53]. 6. Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume**: Charts show the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [56]. - **Bio - diesel Profit**: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The protein meal market is expected to be range - bound. Investors are advised to buy at the lower end of the cost range and be cautious about profit margins and supply pressure at high prices [3][5]. - The outlook for the oil market is oscillating strongly. Palm oil may rise in the fourth quarter due to the expected B50 policy in Indonesia [7][9]. - The sugar market is generally bearish. The downward space depends on the Brazilian production speed from August to October [11][12]. - The cotton market may improve fundamentally. In the short - term, cotton prices are likely to oscillate at a high level [14][15]. - The egg market may be prone to rising in the short - term but needs to be cautious about the pressure after demand overdraft and position decline in the medium - term [17][18]. - The pig market is expected to be weak in September. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a low - level rebound on the futures market and the far - month reverse spread strategy [20][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Protein Meal - **Important Information**: On Thursday, US soybeans rose slightly, and the domestic soybean meal futures rebounded slightly. Last week, domestic soybean meal and soybeans were stocked up, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly. The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas will be significantly less in the next two weeks, and the soybean good - quality rate has declined. The USDA has significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production has decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal spot market may start to destock in September, supporting the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy at the lower end of the cost range and be cautious at high prices [5]. Oil - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in August, while production decreased. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to be 6.75 million tons. The international palm oil CNF quotation has declined slightly, and China's palm oil import cost has dropped. The domestic three major oils oscillated on Thursday, and foreign investors continued to reduce their long positions [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils fell due to the weakening of commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, factors such as the US biodiesel policy draft, low inventory in Southeast Asia, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the oil price center. Palm oil is expected to be oscillating strongly before the inventory is fully accumulated and the negative feedback from demand does not appear [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. As of the end of August, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio in Guangxi increased year - on - year, while that in Yunnan decreased year - on - year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar supply has increased significantly since July. The new sugar - making season in Guangxi is expected to have increased production. The overall view is bearish, and the downward space depends on the Brazilian production [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The global cotton production and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season are expected to decrease compared with the previous month's forecast. As of August 31, 2025, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 51%, down 3 percentage points from the previous week [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the downstream consumption is average, considering the upcoming consumption peak season and the low domestic cotton inventory, the fundamentals may improve. In the short - term, cotton prices are likely to oscillate at a high level [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The supply was relatively stable, and the market sales were normal [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply has improved marginally, and the demand has increased due to pre - festival stocking. In the short - term, egg prices are likely to rise, but attention should be paid to the medium - term pressure [18]. Pigs - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price generally fell on the previous day, with some local increases. The demand support was limited, and the sales resistance for farmers was large [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The previous expectation of a spot price rebound has failed. The current futures price has low expectations for the future. In September, the supply may be weak, but attention should be paid to the possibility of a low - level rebound and the far - month reverse spread strategy [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Indonesia's significant growth in palm oil exports, with a total export volume of 13.64 million tons from January to July, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.95%, and an export value of $14.02 billion, up 32.92% year-on-year [1] - Indonesia is the world's largest palm oil exporter, and there are expectations for the acceleration of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the European Union, which could greatly enhance the export trade of palm oil and other major products [1] - However, there are concerns that domestic biodiesel policies and government price controls may lead to a decline in palm oil product exports [1] Group 2 - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association projects that the country's crude palm oil production will reach 52 million tons in 2024, with domestic consumption at 23.8 million tons, and a slight increase in production to 53.6 million tons this year, while exports are expected to decrease to 27.5 million tons [1] - Driven by coal, crude palm oil, refined palm oil, and steel, Indonesia's non-oil and gas export value reached $152.2 billion from January to July, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.55%, with a trade surplus of $4.17 billion in July, maintaining a surplus for 63 consecutive months [1] - In August, the S&P Global Indonesia Manufacturing PMI index rose from 49.2 in July to 51.5, the highest level since March, indicating improved international market confidence with the fastest growth in overseas demand since September 2023 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Supported by biodiesel policies, oils and fats are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall. In the short term, the market will return to a volatile trend. For oils and fats to rise again, new drivers are needed, specifically problems on the supply side; otherwise, the upward momentum will be weak. It is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips [92]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of three major oils have risen alternately. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has fluctuated, affected by various factors such as USDA's yield and area adjustments, tariff policies, crude oil prices, and biodiesel policies [5][6]. 3.2 Soybean Oil - **USDA's Adjustment of U.S. Soybean Planting Area**: USDA unexpectedly and significantly reduced the estimated U.S. soybean planting area. The U.S. soybean balance sheet shows that the 2025 - 08 data has decreased compared to previous periods, and there is a possibility of further tightening of the balance sheet and lower inventories [9]. - **Pro Farmer Field Inspection Results**: The number of soybean pods in major producing states in 2025 shows a mixed trend compared to 2024, with some states having an increase and others a decrease. The estimated yield per acre of 53.6 bushels provides room for a downward adjustment [10]. - **Soybean Growth Indicators**: As of the week ending August 24, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, higher than expected. The pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4%. As of the week ending August 26, about 11% of the U.S. soybean planting area was affected by drought [20]. - **SRE Announcement**: On August 22, EPA announced the handling of 175 small refinery exemption (SRE) applications from 38 small refineries in the 2016 - 2024 compliance years. It is expected not to affect the demand for biofuels [22]. - **South American Exports**: Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.2573 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.95%. Argentina adjusted its soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal export tariffs [31][32]. - **Domestic Situation in China**: China's soybean imports in July were 11.666 million tons. The soybean oil mill operating rate remained high, and soybean oil was expected to continue to accumulate inventory. In late August, China exported soybean oil again, with an expected monthly average export volume of 3 - 50,000 tons from September to December [37][40]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Malaysian Inventory and Production**: In July, Malaysia's palm oil production was slightly lower than expected, exports met expectations, and inventory was lower than expected. From August 1 - 25, 2025, production decreased by 1.21% compared to the same period last month, and exports increased by 10.9%. Malaysia plans to replant palm trees [50]. - **Indonesian Production and Policy**: In June, Indonesia's palm oil production increased by 15.96% month - on - month, contrary to rumors. The government's crackdown on illegal palm plantations may affect future production. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 policy in 2026, but it is unlikely to be implemented in the short term [53][58]. - **Indian Imports**: India imported palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in July. It is rumored that India purchased palm oil from Latin America and imported rapeseed oil from the UAE. The Indian government may reduce the import tariff on rapeseed oil [66]. - **Chinese Imports and Inventory**: China's palm oil imports in July were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.57%. With the decline in imports, inventory is expected to peak and decline [76]. 3.4 Rapeseed Oil - **Canadian Rapeseed Production**: Canada's estimated rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 3.6% year - on - year, as the increase in yield per unit offsets the decline in area [86]. - **Anti - Dumping Preliminary Ruling**: On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on anti - dumping investigations into Canadian rapeseed, setting a 75.8% deposit ratio. This will increase the cost of importing Canadian rapeseed and tighten domestic rapeseed supply. China will purchase Australian rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed imports will continue to tighten before the end of this year, accelerating the pace of rapeseed oil inventory reduction [89].

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is currently dominated by bullish narratives, driven by Indonesia's increased storage capacity, long-term production bottlenecks, and strong demand from India, making it difficult to challenge the underlying positive fundamentals [3][18]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Indonesia's palm oil production is facing long-term constraints, while its storage capacity has improved, leading to a seasonal peak in inventories [3][18]. - India's palm oil imports are projected to reach a new high of 18 million tons in the next planting season, indicating a significant increase in demand [11][12]. - The comparison between China's weak consumption signals and the recovery of import profits suggests that China's demand is unlikely to provide effective feedback to the market [8][19]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Malaysia's seasonal accumulation trend and unsubstantiated domestic demand could create potential downward pressure on prices, with domestic demand exceeding 450,000 tons for three months this year [4][17]. - The palm oil market is experiencing a shift in trading dynamics, with speculative attributes gaining more influence over industry fundamentals [9][19]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy changes and the potential reallocation of exemptions could impact the demand for palm oil, particularly in relation to North American soybean oil prices [5][6][7]. Group 3: Price Trends and Projections - The palm oil price is expected to find new support levels around 3,800 ringgit or 8,000 yuan in the long term, influenced by seasonal production increases and domestic demand fluctuations [4][18]. - The market is currently witnessing a divergence between palm oil pricing and commodity price indices, indicating a potential misalignment in market expectations [9][19]. - The palm oil market's reliance on speculative sentiment may lead to short-term price corrections, while long-term demand from India and Southeast Asia remains robust [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. Core Views of the Reports 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Futures may have an upward trend due to limited production growth and expected lower - than - estimated month - end inventory. Long - term view is cautiously bullish for Malaysian palm oil and oscillatingly bullish for domestic palm oil [2]. - Soybean oil: Affected by US biodiesel policy with uncertainties. CBOT soybean oil shows range - bound adjustment. Domestic spot basis quotes may be supported, and there is potential for basis quotes to rise if factory inventories decrease [2]. 2. Corn and Corn Starch - Short - term: Supply and demand are both weak, with the market in a weak and oscillating state. Spring corn listing, old - grain selling, and import auctions increase supply, while demand is sluggish [4]. - Medium - term: New - season corn cost is lower, and with good growth, supply pressure in the fourth quarter is significant, and the market value may move towards the new - season cost [4]. 3. Sugar - International: Raw sugar is suppressed by expected supply increase but has a risk of production downward revision in Brazil. It is expected to trade in the 15 - 17 cents/lb range in the short term [8]. - Domestic: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillatingly weak as the supply is becoming more abundant despite some digestion of import increase expectations [8]. 4. Live Hogs - Spot prices are stable with a slight downward trend. Suggest waiting and watching. If there is room to reduce the slaughter weight, there may be support for the far - month contract, and small - scale long positions in the far - month 01 contract can be considered below 14,000 [9]. 5. Cotton - Short - term: Domestic cotton prices may trade in a range as old - crop inventory is tight and the issuance of sliding - scale tariffs is lower than expected. - Long - term: New - season cotton production is expected to increase steadily, putting pressure on prices after new cotton hits the market [11]. 6. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to remain bearish due to sufficient supply and slow downstream digestion [14]. 7. Meal - The decline space of domestic meal is limited as the cost side provides good support. The global soybean supply in the fourth quarter is not abundant, and the cost support for domestic meal is still strong [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On August 26, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,740 yuan, the futures price of Y2601 was 8,536 yuan, and the basis was 204 yuan. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu in August was 01 + 220 [2]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong on August 26 was 9,470 yuan, down 1.56% from the previous day. The futures price of P2601 was 9,424 yuan, down 0.67%. The basis was 46 yuan, down 65.15%. The import cost and profit in Guangzhou Port in January showed a decline [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu on August 26 was 10,020 yuan, up 0.40%. The futures price of OI601 was 9,941 yuan, down 0.57%. The basis was 79 yuan, up 538.89% [2]. - **Spreads**: Soybean oil 09 - 01 spread increased by 66.67%, palm oil 09 - 01 spread increased by 19.15%, and rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread increased by 12.15%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 17.05% [2]. 2. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On August 26, the price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port was 2,158 - 2,260 yuan, the basis was 102 yuan, and the 11 - 3 spread was - 24 yuan. Import cost decreased, and import profit increased slightly [4]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 was 2,475 yuan, down 0.24%. The spot prices in Changchun and Weifang decreased. The basis and 11 - 3 spread both declined [4]. 3. Sugar - **Futures**: On August 26, the price of sugar 2601 was 5,632 yuan, down 0.98%, and the price of sugar 2509 was 5,678 yuan, down 0.73%. ICE raw sugar主力 was at 16.42 cents/lb, up 0.18% [8]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in Nanning and other places decreased slightly. Imported Brazilian sugar prices (both quota - in and quota - out) decreased [8]. - **Industry situation**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, while industrial inventories decreased. Sugar imports increased significantly [8]. 4. Live Hogs - **Futures**: The price of the main contract of live hogs decreased slightly. The 11 - 1 spread was - 340 yuan, down 3.03% [9]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in various regions were stable with a slight decline. Slaughter volume increased slightly, and self - breeding and外购 breeding profits improved [9]. 5. Cotton - **Futures**: On August 26, the price of cotton 2509 was 13,780 yuan, down 0.14%, and the price of cotton 2601 was 14,100 yuan, down 0.14%. ICE US cotton主力 was at 66.67 cents/lb, down 1.05% [11]. - **Spot**: Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index increased, while FC Index decreased. The basis between 3128B and 01 contract increased by 11.92% [11]. - **Industry situation**: Commercial inventory decreased, import volume increased, and textile industry indicators showed mixed trends [11]. 6. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 2,916 yuan/500KG, down 1.19%, and the price of the egg 10 contract was 3,013 yuan/500KG, down 0.26% [13]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.19 yuan/jin, up 2.42%. The basis increased by 84.78% [13]. - **Related indicators**: Egg - chick prices decreased, and the egg - feed ratio increased. Breeding profits improved [13]. 7. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,050 yuan, down 0.33%. The futures price of M2601 was 3,081 yuan, down 1.15%. The basis was - 31 yuan, up 45.61%. Brazilian 10 - month shipping schedule's crushing profit increased by 81.7% [17]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,600 yuan, up 0.78%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2,526 yuan, down 0.82%. The basis was 74 yuan, up 124.24% [17]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan, up 0.76%. The futures price of the soybean - one main contract was 3,974 yuan, down 0.45%. The basis increased by 114.29% [17]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal decreased by 10.62%, and the oil - meal ratio increased slightly [17].

Group 1 - The overall bullish sentiment in the commodity market has slightly weakened, leading to a slowdown in the recent upward momentum of the oilseed market, but the fundamental support remains strong, maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on oilseeds [1] Group 2 - Malaysia's palm oil production in July was reported at 1.8124 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.09%, slightly below market expectations of 1.83 million tons; exports increased by 3.82% to 1.3091 million tons, slightly exceeding expectations; ending stocks rose by 4.02% to 2.1133 million tons, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase but still below the expected 2.23 million tons [2] - High-frequency data indicates that the seasonal production increase cycle may have peaked, with palm oil production from August 1 to 20 showing only a slight month-on-month increase of 0.3%, while export figures recorded a significant month-on-month increase of 13.6% [2] Group 3 - The USDA reported a significant unexpected decrease in U.S. soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, a reduction of 6.2 million acres compared to last year; despite an increase in yield forecast from 52.5 bushels per acre to 53.6 bushels per acre, total production was still adjusted down by 4.3 million bushels to 4.292 billion bushels [3] - The ProFarmer annual crop tour indicated that soybean pod counts were higher than last year in most major producing states, with new crop yield estimates at 53 bushels per acre, slightly below the USDA's estimate [3] Group 4 - As the South American soybean export season ends in September, the market will shift back to U.S. soybeans; if high tariff policies persist, there may be a supply gap in the domestic soybean market [4] - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced preliminary anti-dumping measures on canola seeds from Canada, requiring importers to pay a deposit of 75.8%, which could tighten supply as Canada is the largest source of canola imports for China [4] Group 5 - The U.S. EPA's Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) proposal sets higher blending volumes for biofuels in 2026 and 2027, which is expected to increase U.S. soybean oil demand by about 20% [5] - Indonesia's B40 policy is projected to require 1,419 million tons of palm oil, an increase of 223 million tons year-on-year, with potential future implementation of B50 further boosting domestic palm oil consumption [5]