具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4354.42美元/盎司，先行录得日内高点4375.09美元，之后遇阻回落，一路 走低，延续到美盘22点半时段触及日内低点4082.92美元，就此触底回升后，又回撤保持低位震荡走 盘，最终收于4124.76美元，日振幅292.17美元，收跌229.66美元，跌幅5.27%。 上交易日周二(10月21日)：国际黄金巨幅回落走低，一度跌超6.3%，创2013年4月以来最大单日跌幅， 如期验证了上周说道的9转序列，后市短期即将迎来回调风险，也如期在触及上周给出的上升趋势压力 位置遇阻回撤。目前来看，多头动力减弱，在重回4300美元上方持稳前，偏向技术反弹遇阻回调的行情 为主。 展望今日周三(10月22日)：国际黄金开盘继续走低回落，延续昨日空头动力，一方面受到技术的进一步 抛压，另一方面市场对于中美贸易谈判以及美国政府停摆将结束的乐观预期利空压力，那么在停摆结束 落地之前，金价都将维持偏弱回落的走势为主。 等待风险偏好落地或降息预期升温，以及进入下个月时，再去又一次的长线看涨入场。 影响上，市场对于美国政府停摆将结束以及将达成贸易协议的预期，提振了美元，削弱了市场对黄金避 险资产的需求。使 ...

花旗称："我们预计布伦特原油在2026年第一季度的平均价格将在60美元/桶左右。" （文华综合） 10月21日（周二），花旗称短期内他们预计黄金价格（此前为看涨，但现在转为看跌），未来0-3个月 内的目标价将在每盎司4,000美元。 花旗表示，中期看多铜和铝，未来6-12个月铜价将达到1.2万美元/吨，铝价到2027年将达到3,500美元/ 吨。 花旗预计美国政府停摆的结束等因素，可能将在未来两到三周内推动黄金市场盘整。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Senate held its 11th vote on October 20, failing to pass a temporary funding bill for the federal government, resulting in a government shutdown that has lasted for 20 days [1] - Over 70% of approximately 1,400 employees at the National Nuclear Security Administration began unpaid leave, with only about 400 remaining on duty, impacting nuclear weapon production and contractor oversight [2] - Despite the government shutdown, construction has begun on a new luxurious "State Dining Room" at the White House, as per President Trump's directive [2][4] Group 1 - The construction of the new dining room is reported to cost $250 million, funded by Trump and unnamed donors, and is not expected to use taxpayer money [4][5] - The new dining room will be approximately 8,000 square feet, designed to accommodate up to 999 guests, expanding from an original plan for 650 [5] - The East Wing, which is undergoing demolition, has been part of the White House since 1902 and includes the First Lady's office and a small cinema [5] Group 2 - The construction work commenced on October 20, with visible demolition activities reported, including the removal of parts of the East Wing [4] - Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with hosting events in temporary tents on the South Lawn, emphasizing the need for a dedicated space for state visits and grand banquets [4][5] - The project has been described as a long-held dream of past presidents, aiming to enhance the White House's capacity for hosting significant events [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown due to significant disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties over key issues such as healthcare spending, leading to a halt in federal operations since October 1 [1] - The shutdown is negatively impacting various sectors, particularly tourism and small businesses, as government services are suspended [1] - Major tourist attractions, including museums in Washington D.C., have closed, resulting in a decline in visitors and affecting local businesses in the hospitality and transportation sectors [1] Group 2 - Public sentiment is increasingly negative regarding the political stalemate, with many Americans expressing frustration over the ongoing partisan conflicts and concerns about societal division [2][4] - Tourists have reported experiencing inconveniences due to the shutdown, highlighting the broader impact on ordinary citizens and visitors alike [8] - The National Park Service has closed many parks due to employee furloughs, and air travel has been disrupted, with over 5,800 flight delays reported in a single day due to air traffic control staff shortages [10] Group 3 - The economic impact of the shutdown is significant, with estimates indicating a weekly loss of approximately $10 billion to the tourism sector and $150 billion to the overall U.S. GDP [12] - Analysts warn that the initial losses may escalate if the shutdown continues, potentially undermining consumer and business confidence, and leading to broader economic disruptions [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The rebound space of copper prices is limited. Overseas interest rate cuts in October are a foregone conclusion, and the impact of Sino - US trade conflicts and the US government shutdown has led to a pessimistic market outlook, suppressing the upward space of copper prices. Fundamentally, there is high resistance to high prices in the domestic market, but the domestic copper export window is open, reducing the pressure of inventory accumulation. It is the peak consumption season in October, providing fundamental support. The previous copper futures price has broken through the long - term oscillation range, and the market is mainly strong. However, as the peak season ends, demand support will weaken, and the upward space is insufficient [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved higher, with a strong intraday oscillation [1][4]. - Spot: On October 21, 2025, the spot premium in East China was 55 yuan/ton, and in South China was 65 yuan/ton. The LME official price was 10,610 US dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 29 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.2 Supply Side - As of October 15, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 40.8 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.08 cents/pound [8]. - Copper concentrate port inventory decreased this week, and is significantly lower than the same period last year. Smelters are still under maintenance, with low output levels. LME copper prices are rising, and smelters plan to ship copper spot to LME, which may further reduce the domestic circulation volume [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 37,700 tons, an increase of 1,383 tons from the previous period. As of October 20, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 108,700 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 137,200 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 346,600 short tons, an increase of 1,035 short tons from the previous period [11].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have slightly retreated from historical highs due to a rebound in the US dollar and improved global risk sentiment, but the downside potential for gold remains limited due to concerns over a potential US government shutdown and strong expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a strong reversal with gold prices recovering previous losses and reaching new highs, indicating robust buying sentiment [3] - Despite the strong upward movement, there are signs of stagnation at high levels, suggesting a potential short-term decline in momentum and a shift towards a consolidation phase [3][4] - Key resistance levels are identified at 4300-4320, with significant support at 4245-4230, which could guide trading strategies [3] Technical Analysis - The recent volatility in gold prices is attributed to the market's reaction to various fundamental factors, with a focus on the importance of recognizing trends and managing risk in a highly fluctuating environment [4][6] - The presence of speculative trading and the behavior of institutional investors are critical in understanding current market dynamics, especially during periods of high volatility [7][8] Trading Strategy - Recommendations suggest focusing on buying on dips while being cautious of the risks associated with chasing prices at high levels [3][10] - The market is currently in a range-bound phase, with attention needed on key price levels to determine potential breakout or breakdown scenarios [10]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 21 日 商品表现 （IF）主力合约涨 1.63%，上证 50 股指期货（IH）主力合约涨 1.19%，中证 500 股指期货（IC） ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for an extended period without significant increases [2][3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with ongoing demand from official purchases and ETF holdings providing a stabilizing effect [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through the key resistance level of 4270, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend, with short-term support identified at 4320 [5][6] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is currently facing downward pressure, with WTI crude oil prices nearing a low of 55.12 USD per barrel, influenced by easing trade concerns and market sentiment [6][7] - Despite short-term support around 57 USD for WTI and 61 USD for Brent, the long-term outlook remains cautious due to ongoing supply-demand dynamics and potential trade uncertainties [6][7] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend for oil, with MACD showing a downward momentum, indicating that the market may continue to experience downward pressure in the near term [7]

Core Points - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown due to significant disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties over healthcare-related spending, leading to a halt in federal operations since October 1 [1] - The shutdown is causing widespread negative impacts on various sectors, particularly tourism and small businesses, as government services are suspended [1][3] Impact on Tourism and Small Businesses - Numerous museums and attractions in Washington D.C. have closed, resulting in a significant drop in tourist activity in the National Mall area, which traditionally attracts large crowds [3] - The closure of national parks and other tourist sites is affecting local businesses, including restaurants, transportation, and hotels, which rely on tourist traffic [3][10] Economic Losses - The U.S. tourism economy is reportedly losing approximately $1 billion per week due to the shutdown, while the overall GDP is estimated to be losing about $150 billion weekly [12] - The Federal Aviation Administration has reported flight delays and cancellations due to air traffic control staff shortages, with over 5,800 flights delayed in a single day [10] Public Sentiment - Many Americans express disappointment and frustration over the shutdown, feeling exhausted by the ongoing political conflicts and concerned about increasing societal division [5][8] - There is a growing sentiment among the public that the political stalemate is causing undue hardship for ordinary citizens and visitors alike [8][10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In the short term, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, but be wary of the repetition of tariff policies. Pay attention to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, suppressing the upward space. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions may suppress precious metal prices, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October will continue to support the gold price, so the gold price is expected to turn into a fluctuating trend. The silver price has fallen from a high level and may fluctuate bearishly in the short term. The prices of various commodities in different industries are affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US trade relations, government shutdowns, production capacity, inventory, and policy changes, showing different trends of fluctuation, strength, or weakness [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The easing of Sino - US trade tensions may suppress precious metal prices; the continued US government shutdown and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October will support the gold price, which is expected to fluctuate. The silver price has fallen from a high level and may fluctuate bearishly in the short term, but the physical tightness in London needs to be noted [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term global trade frictions are repeated, copper price fluctuations intensify. The continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of domestic and foreign macro - liquidity are expected to drive the copper price to continue to operate strongly [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The alumina production capacity is continuously released, and the production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Pay attention to the cost support recently [1]. - **Zinc**: The continued US government shutdown increases macro risks. Although Sino - US trade tensions have eased, subsequent disturbances still exist. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Sino - US trade frictions have slightly eased, and the Fed rate cut expectation at the end of the month remains high. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the nickel ore quota approval in the fourth quarter. The nickel price may be dominated by the macro situation and fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of high - inventory suppression. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: The continued US government shutdown increases macro risks. Although Sino - US trade tensions have eased, subsequent disturbances still exist. The short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices in the medium and long term [1]. Chemical Industry - **Polysilicon**: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened. The production plan in October has increased unexpectedly. Organic silicon demand is weak [1]. - **Other Chemicals**: For various chemicals such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, styrene, urea, PE, PP, PVC, ES, LPG, etc., their prices are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, market demand, and international market conditions, showing different trends of fluctuation, strength, or weakness [1]. Black Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: The industrial drivers of rebar and hot - rolled coils are unclear, and the valuations are low. It is not recommended to participate in directional trading. The near - month of iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month has upward potential. The supply of silicon iron and glass is in excess, and the prices are under pressure. The price of coal and coke may fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to the new提法 of "anti - involution" in the domestic major meeting communique [1]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Grains**: For palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, etc., the market is affected by factors such as international trade policies, production areas' supply and demand, and inventory. The market is in a state of multiple - factor entanglement, and different trading strategies are recommended [1]. - **Cotton and Sugar**: The short - term domestic cotton price is likely to fluctuate widely, and the market may face pressure in the long term. The raw sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited. The domestic sugar price is expected to have limited rebound space, and the idea of selling at high prices is maintained [1]. - **Corn and Soybean Meal**: The selling pressure of US soybeans suppresses the US market price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by Sino - US trade policies and supply - demand relationships, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish [1]. Energy and Others - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are affected by factors such as OPEC + production increase, seasonal demand changes, and US tariff policies, showing a fluctuating trend. The prices of other products such as BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. are also affected by multiple factors such as production capacity, inventory, and market demand [1]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping price has fallen to a relatively low level, with the possibility of a low - level rebound. It is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].