现货黄金上周一度创下4381美元历史高位，年初至今已累升近67%，其后连续四天未能突破，市场忧虑贵金属估值过高令金价获利回套，执笔时低见4003美 元。 周二金价录得自2020年8月以来最大单日跌幅，幅度高达6.3%，大规模抛售与获利了结盘做就这一跌势，凸显了"共识交易"潜在的风险。 技术走势方面，金价、银价正式进入调整，短期内黄金将下望3880美元，而白银则有望测试44美元支持位，投资者暂只宜看淡。 大湾区家族办公室协会李慧芬教授 日期：2025年10月24日星期五 (本人并没持有以上股票) 自9月初起，价格便持续运行于超买区域，现时多间大行仍维持对黄金明年恢复上行势头的预判。从交易层面来看，此次回调直接终结了自8月中旬开启的快 速上行周期。 令金价逆转的消息包括周二特朗普对与中国国家主席达成贸易协议的积极表态，巴以停火协议签订，俄乌新一轮谈判即将召开，以及白宫称本周末政府可能 恢复运行，叠加本周五美国劳工局将发布推迟的美国CPI数据印证美国政府停摆可能暂告段落，这些均驱使黄金多头获利了结。关于黄金提前兑现的节点之 前文章都有提示过。值得注意的是全球第二大黄金消费国印度排灯节结束，实物需求减少，是金价下跌的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations impacting investor sentiment and gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Data - On October 23, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 942.28 yuan per gram, reflecting a decrease of 0.77% [1]. - The trading volume for the day was 555,735 contracts, while the open interest stood at 189,131 contracts [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 938.00 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 4.28 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - U.S. President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a trade agreement with China during the upcoming APEC meeting, although he noted the possibility of cancellation [1]. - The EU has approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, which includes a ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas [1]. - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted three weeks, becoming the second-longest in history, with ongoing deadlock over healthcare subsidies [2]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Ruida Futures, the precious metals market is expected to experience wide-ranging fluctuations due to various macroeconomic uncertainties [2]. - International precious metals futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.18% to $4,116.60 per ounce and silver futures increasing by 1.00% to $48.18 per ounce [2]. - The market is currently facing resistance to gold price increases due to improved risk appetite stemming from easing trade tensions and expectations of reduced tariffs [2].

| CTERET | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日度 策略参考 | | | | 发布日期:2025/ | | 人 中 谷 若 · F D · F · F · F · F | | | | 行业板块 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 短期内股指预计偏强震荡为主,警惕关税政策的反复,时间节点 | | | 震荡 | 关注本月底可能于韩国APEC会议期间开展的中美领导人会晤。 | | 国债 | 준间。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | | 避险降温和获利回吐引发贵金属价格下挫；但美国政府停摆持 | | | 震荡 | 续、美联储10月仍有降息预期等,金价不宜过度悲观,短期或进 | | | | 入震荡走势。 | | 白银 | 農汤 | 短期或偏空震荡,但仍需关注伦敦实物紧张情况。 | | - 10 | 看多 | 短期全球贸易摩擦有所反复,铜价波动加剧。但铜矿供应扰动持 | | | | 续发酵,叠加美联储降息预期提升,铜价有望偏强运行。 | | | | 电解铝基本面喜忧参半,预计价格震荡运行。 | | 氧化铝 | | 在生产仍有 ...

Core Points - The total U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $38 trillion as of October 21, marking a rapid increase from $37 trillion just two months prior [1][2] - The growth rate of the debt has accelerated significantly, with the time taken to increase from $30 trillion to $38 trillion being only three years, and the time to increase by $1 trillion now measured in months rather than years [3] - The current federal debt is 126.8% of GDP, exceeding the IMF's recommended threshold of 100% for developed economies, and is projected to reach 133% by 2035 without major reforms [3] Debt Sustainability Concerns - The high level of debt has raised market concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt, especially in light of the recent government shutdown, which has intensified worries about economic impacts [4] - The ongoing political conflicts are expected to further damage the economy, making the current "borrow new to pay old" debt strategy increasingly difficult to maintain [4] Investor Behavior and Market Reactions - Investors are buying U.S. Treasuries driven by risk-averse sentiment, betting that the Federal Reserve will continue to ease tightening policies to support employment and mitigate economic downturn risks [6] - As of October 22, the 2-year Treasury yield reached a new low of 3.38%, while the 10-year yield was at 3.95%, indicating a trend towards lower yields amid economic uncertainty [6] Inflation and Federal Reserve Actions - The upcoming release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show a 0.3% increase in both overall and core CPI, maintaining core inflation around 3.1% [6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 95.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [7]

汇通财经APP讯——今年以来，黄金表现依然抢眼，受地缘政治紧张局势、经济不确定性、美国降息预 期以及ETF强劲流入的推动，金价累计涨幅高达57%。这一亮眼表现离不开全球市场对避险资产的旺盛 需求。然而，近期国际贸易局势的缓和以及俄乌和平前景的初步显现，部分削弱了黄金的避险吸引力， 导致部分投资者选择在高位获利了结。 周三（10月22日）现货黄金盘中一度下跌近3%，触及近两周低点4004.46美元/盎司，延续了前一日5.3% 的罕见单日跌幅。然而，多重因素吸引逢低买盘帮助金价守住4000关口，并一度回升至4160附近，纽约 时段再度下探4000关口附近支撑，但再度在逢低买盘的支撑下反弹，尾盘金价回升至4098.29美元/盎 司，跌幅收窄至0.64%。这一走势反映了市场在关键经济数据发布前的谨慎情绪。周四（10月23日）亚 市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于4195美元/盎司附近。 High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger指出，鉴于金价过去几周的显著上涨，在美国消费者物价 指数（CPI）报告发布前出现获利回吐并不意外。技术面上，金价在4005美元的21日移动均线处获得支 撑，显示短 ...

•财信期货：市场情绪趋于平稳后黄金依以逢低做多为主 •新湖期货：关注伦敦金4000美元以及伦银48美元的关键技术关口 •东吴期货：投机性多头头寸可能已过度累积，进一步放大了此次贵金属回调幅度 •盛宝银行：金银正在经历早该出现的调整，但大幅抛售后仍被低估 •MKS PAMP：经历了周二的抛售后，贵金属可能需要币预期更长的时间才能重新站稳脚跟 盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示，黄金和白银价格正在经历早就应该出现的调整，白银的大 幅下跌突显了这两种金属之间的流动性缺口，但两者在投资组合中的持有量仍然不足，反弹背后的结构 性驱动因素仍然完好无损。汉森补充称，在经历了年内迄今的大幅上涨之后，金银这两种金属都应该进 行调整，以防止形成泡沫，但从长期来看，对2026年黄金和白银走势仍持乐观态度。"推动今年贵金属 历史性上涨的事态发展并没有消失，并且可能会继续为不再超买但投资组合中仍不足的金属提供支 撑。"汉森表示。 MKS PAMP研究与金属策略主管Nicky Shiels在其最新报告中指出，黄金市场仅用30周时间就从每盎司 3000美元反弹至4000美元，远快于之前1000美元涨幅所用的周期。在她看来，尽 ...

换资前言： 市场瞬息万变，顺势而为，才是王道，趋势来了就是干，不要逆势操作，免得难受煎熬。交易切记不要 意气用事，市场专治各种不服，所以一定不要扛单，相信很多人都深有体会，越抗越慌，浮亏不断放 大，搞的吃不好睡不好，还白白错过很多机会，如果你也有这些烦恼，那不妨跟上金晟富的节奏来试 试，看看能否让你豁然开朗。如果你需要帮助，本人金晟富会一直在这儿，但如果你连手都不伸，我又 怎么能帮到你呢？ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四（10月23日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于4085美元/盎司附近。周三（10月22日） 现货黄金盘中一度下跌近3%，触及近两周低点4004.46美元/盎司，延续了前一日5.3%的罕见单日跌 幅。然而，多重因素吸引逢低买盘帮助金价守住4000关口，并一度回升至4160附近，纽约时段再度下探 4000关口附近支撑，但再度在逢低买盘的支撑下反弹，尾盘金价回升至4098.29美元/盎司，跌幅收窄至 0.64%。这一走势反映了市场在关键经济数据发布前的谨慎情绪。今年以来，黄金表现依然抢眼，受地 缘政治紧张局势、经济不确定性、美国降息预期以及ETF强劲流入的推 ...

Core Points - The German Ministry of Finance announced that it will cover the salaries of German employees working for the U.S. military in Germany if a U.S. government shutdown prevents salary payments [1][3] - The German public service union expressed concerns that the current U.S. government may not fulfill its obligations to pay local employees at overseas bases during a shutdown, unlike previous instances [3] - An agreement has been reached between the German federal government and the state of Rhineland-Palatinate, where U.S. military bases are located, to provide salary advances in case of U.S. default [3] - The advanced salaries will be reimbursed once the U.S. government resumes operations, and this action is described as a gesture of solidarity with the U.S. military and its employees [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government has entered its 22nd day of a shutdown, marking the second-longest shutdown in history [1] - The Senate has rejected a temporary budget proposal for the 12th time, with a vote of 54 in favor and 46 against, failing to reach the required 60 votes [1] - The core disagreement between the two parties revolves around healthcare budget provisions, with Democrats insisting on including healthcare-related clauses in the temporary budget [1] Group 2 - Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries requested a meeting with President Trump to discuss the budget, which Trump declined, stating he would only meet after the government reopens [1] - Senator Merkley delivered a speech lasting 22 hours and 37 minutes in the Senate, expressing dissatisfaction with the Trump administration and Republican leadership, setting a record for the fourth-longest speech in Senate history [2]

Core Points - The U.S. government has entered its 22nd day of a shutdown, marking the second-longest shutdown in history, with no end in sight [1] - The longest shutdown occurred in December 2018, lasting nearly five weeks, triggered by a funding standoff over Trump's immigration policy [1] - The current shutdown is due to Senate Democrats refusing to vote on a short-term funding bill proposed by Republicans, citing the lack of provisions for increased healthcare spending [1] Group 1 - The Democratic Party demands an extension of enhanced tax subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, or else millions of Americans will face significant increases in health insurance premiums by 2026 [1] - Republicans accuse Democrats of holding the government "hostage" and refusing to negotiate on healthcare issues [2] - Despite holding a 53-47 majority in the Senate, any funding bill requires 60 votes to pass, leading to 11 failed votes on previously passed temporary funding resolutions from the House [2] Group 2 - A proposed military funding bill by Republicans also failed in procedural voting [2] - Senate Majority Leader McConnell stated that negotiations have occurred, but Democrats' conditions are deemed completely unacceptable [2] - Democrats are urging Trump to personally engage in discussions to resolve the shutdown, but McConnell indicated that the government must reopen first before any talks can proceed [2]