来源：贺氏博生HBS6282 投资市场永远有四个层次：保住本金，控制风险，赚取收益，长期稳定持续赢利。不要因为一天的输赢定结果，赚钱是偶然还是必然，是凭真功夫还是凭运 气，在市场上能活着的肯定是最终能够长期持续赢利的投资者。交易就是一个好的习惯，严格执行你的交易计划。一次严谨的交易=良好的心态控制＋正确 的仓位控制＋过硬的技术功力，合作从不强买强卖。机会是留给有准备的人，一次正确的选择大于百倍努力， 你相信老师，我给你一个满意收益，你刚好 需要，我刚好专业！ 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周三（北京时间10月8日）亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于3990美元/盎司附近，现货黄金周三触及3990.90美元/盎司的历史高位，12月交割的 美国期金一度升至4014.6美元/盎司，受助于美联储本月晚些时候降息的预期和美国政府陷于停摆推动的持续避险需求。周二（10月7日）现货黄金在触及历 史新高3977.25美元/盎司后小幅回落，不过在有利的基本面背景下，任何实质性回调似乎都难以实现。美元已连续两个交易日走强，然而，由于市场普遍预 期美联储将在年内再实施两次降息，美元的这波上涨缺乏坚定的看涨信念，这或许将继续为无息黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1013.15 tons of gold as of October 7, 2025, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.02 tons from the previous trading day. The price of spot gold reached a record high of $3990.90 per ounce, driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing U.S. government shutdown and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of October 7, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust holds 1013.15 tons of gold, down by 0.02 tons from the previous day [7]. - The current gold ETF holdings indicate a strong interest in gold as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty [7]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On October 7, spot gold prices peaked at $3990.90 per ounce, marking a significant increase of $23.49 or 0.59% [7]. - The price of gold is supported by expectations of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with predictions of rate cuts in October and December [7][8]. Group 3: Market Influences - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its seventh day, has heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7]. - Geopolitical tensions in France and Japan have also contributed to increased global demand for gold [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its long-term gold price forecast for 2026 from $4300 to $4900, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs and continued central bank purchases [8]. - Technical indicators suggest that while gold is in an upward trend, caution may be warranted as it approaches the psychological barrier of $4000 per ounce [8][9].

截至发稿时，Wind数据显示，现货黄金报4000.49美元/盎司，涨0.41%，年初至今涨幅超50%。 10月7日早些时候，COMEX黄金期货已经站上4000美元/盎司的新高位。截至7日收盘，COMEX黄金期 货涨0.71%，报4004.80美元/盎司，日内交投区间为3963.40—4014.60美元。 本轮黄金上涨是在美元持续走低的大背景下，美国联邦政府"停摆"，以及市场猜测美联储即便通胀仍高 企也将继续降息，推动了黄金的持续走高，亿万富豪瑞·达利欧表示，黄金"肯定"比美元更具安全避风 港作用，并且黄金创纪录的涨势与上世纪七十年代的情况类似，当时黄金在高通胀和经济不稳定的背景 下出现飙升。 10月8日，伦敦现货黄金价格首次站上4000美元整数关口，再创历史新高。 （原标题：涨疯了！现货黄金，突破4000美元！） 责编：叶舒筠 校对：刘榕枝 综合自：智通财经、e公司 ...

黄金价格首次突破每盎司4000美元大关，这一历史性跨越标志着在美国经济前景及全球地位引发担忧之际，投 资者正大举涌入另类资产。 今年以来，这种贵金属的涨幅已超过美国历次重大危机时期。2025年黄金期货逾50%的飙升幅度，超越了疫情 期间及2007-2009年经济衰退期的涨幅。自1979年通胀冲击以来，黄金还从未在一年内实现如此巨大的涨幅。 本轮上涨并无类似的历史动荡背景。推动金价飙升的部分原因，是市场担忧特朗普可能颠覆以美元为基石的战 后经济秩序。 特朗普重构全球贸易体系的尝试助推了金价，也颠覆了经济增长预期。白宫施压美联储降息，正威胁着这一金 融体系支柱机构的独立性。某项指标显示，美元创下了逾五十年来最疲软的上半年表现。 这些因素共同推高了黄金——这个或许是金融市场最传统的避风港。今年3月，交投最活跃的黄金期货首次突 破每盎司3000美元。但值得关注的是，即便近期贸易紧张局势缓和、AI热潮推动股市重拾升势，黄金依然在持 续刷新历史纪录。 本轮涨势的最新阶段始于8月。当时美联储主席鲍威尔释放信号，表明该央行准备在失业率低迷、通胀超标的 经济环境下启动降息。 全球央行持金量的年度变化 近月来，西方投资者也在大举 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surpassed the $4,000 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high, with strong market confidence in bullish positions on gold, particularly if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is targeting the next significant threshold of $5,000 per ounce for gold, driven by large and sustained debt levels, diversification of foreign exchange reserves by central banks, and a weakening dollar [1] - Short-term fluctuations may occur due to geopolitical events, such as a potential lasting ceasefire in the Middle East or Ukraine, but the core drivers for gold remain unchanged in the medium term [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Political turmoil in France and Japan has further increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1]

10月8日，伦敦现货黄金价格首次站上4000美元整数关口，再创历史新高。 | 10:00 ◀ | | | | | ·III RG BBD | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | W | | | 伦敦金现 SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | Q | | 4000 490 ª2 | | | | 3984.340 | 总量 | 0 | | +16.150 | +0.41% 开盘 | | | 3984.460 | 现手 | 0 | | 最高价 | 4000.938 | 持 ਦੇ | | 0 | 外 물 | 0 | | 最低价 | 3982.748 | 壇 仓 | | 0 | 豊 内 | 0 | | સ્ત્રીયે | モ日 | 目K | | 周K | 月K 重多 | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | 4000.938 | | | | | --- | | | | | | | | र्ट्रे- 4000.490 | | | | | | | | 9:59 3999.330 | 0 | | | | | | | 9:59 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut on September 18, 2024, is set against a complex macroeconomic backdrop, including risks of stagflation in the U.S. and misalignment in the economic cycles of China and the U.S., suggesting that the Hong Kong stock market may not replicate historical trends but instead exhibit significant structural differentiation [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context and Market Behavior - Historical experience indicates that during Fed rate cut cycles, the Hong Kong stock market typically shows a "preventive rate cut rally" or a "recessionary rate cut decline" pattern [1]. - In terms of market style, the Hang Seng Technology Index has demonstrated a "high win rate and high return" characteristic during preventive rate cut cycles, while other styles have not shown independent trends [1][2]. - Industry-wise, defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples tend to perform better during recessionary rate cuts, while high-growth sectors such as technology and pharmaceuticals excel during preventive rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 2: Current Economic Landscape - The current macroeconomic environment is more complex than historical experiences, with the U.S. economy facing stagflation risks and ongoing misalignment with China's economic cycle, making it difficult for the Hong Kong market to follow a straightforward trend [2][3]. - The upcoming October monetary policy meeting is crucial for assessing the future pace and intensity of rate cuts, influenced by various structural variables, including political pressures and the ongoing AI industry revolution [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Scenarios - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the next one to two quarters will depend not only on the Fed's rate cut path but also on the recovery process of the Chinese economy [2][52]. - Three potential scenarios are outlined: 1. **Baseline Scenario**: Gradual Fed rate cuts with a moderate recovery in the Chinese economy, favoring growth-sensitive sectors [52][53]. 2. **Optimistic Scenario**: More aggressive Fed cuts without triggering recession fears, leading to a favorable liquidity environment for growth stocks [55]. 3. **Pessimistic Scenario**: Fed pauses or slows rate cuts due to persistent inflation, putting pressure on the Hong Kong market, which will depend heavily on the recovery of the Chinese economy [56]. Group 4: Structural Opportunities - The analysis indicates that different types of rate cut cycles lead to distinct long-term performances in the Hong Kong market, with preventive rate cuts generally resulting in positive returns for the Hang Seng Index [9][10]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has shown superior performance during preventive rate cuts, benefiting from lower discount rates and improved financing conditions [12][13]. - Defensive sectors tend to outperform during recessionary rate cuts, while growth sectors thrive in preventive cut environments, highlighting the importance of sector selection in investment strategies [13][14].

恒生科技指数报6543点，下跌6.90点，跌幅0.11%。 分析人士认为，在此前港股快速上涨背景下，市场积累了大量获利盘，部分资金选择获利了结，导致短期回调。此次下跌被视为技术性调整，尤其是在恒生 指数接近关键阻力区域时，市场出现反复是正常现象。 新股方面，长风药业（02652.HK）今日上市交易，截至发稿，长风药业报47港元，较发行价涨超218%。 长风药业深耕呼吸系统疾病治疗领域，主要专注于吸入技术及吸入药物的研发、生产及商业化，是少数几家拥有广泛吸入制剂产品组合的公司之一。公司开 发以患者为中心的新型疗法，以治疗部分最严重的呼吸系统及肺部疾病，已拥有覆盖广泛患者、医学专科及治疗领域的产品组合。截至目前，产品组合包括 6个获国家药监局或FDA批准的产品，以及20多款正在中国、美国及╱或欧洲等主要市场和东南亚及南美等新兴市场进行全球开发的产品，多款产品处于临 床试验后期阶段或PK-BE试验中，即将注册和商业化。 其他方面，恒生指数成分股中，京东健康（06618.HK）涨超3%、美的集团（00300.HK）、信义光能（00968.HK）涨超1%；龙湖集团（00960.HK）跌超 8%。恒生科技指数成分股中小鹏 ...

浙商国际发布研报称，回顾9月港股市场走势，市场振荡向上加速上涨，连续5个月收涨。整体来看，港 股市场基本面仍偏弱，资金面环境进一步改善，政策面巩固经济稳增长，情绪面短期做多情绪浓重。当 下港股市场周月线级别趋势已进入右侧区间，对于后续走势，即使短期行情有波折，仍不建议悲观。对 于中短期市场走势继续保持谨慎乐观的态度。板块配置方面，看好行业相对景气且受益于政策利好的汽 车、新消费、创新药、科技等。 恒生指数低开0.21%，恒生科技指数跌0.11%。黄金股表现强势，紫金黄金国际涨超2%；科网股多数低 开，阿里巴巴跌1.33%。 关于港股后市 交银国际发布研报称，9月港股延续震荡上行态势，在中美谈判重启和海外降息预期双重利好助推下， 叠加科技板块轮动上涨，对大盘形成重要提振。外部环境延续向好，中美贸易谈判重启，双方就关税削 减、出口管制等关键议题展开磋商，市场对双边关系进展预期有所升温。国庆及中秋长假影响，市场预 计将短暂进入"淡季"模式，叠加美国政府短期融资法案不确定性，海外扰动影响或放大。同时，市场对 美联储降息时点和幅度仍存分歧，短期内可能仍以"有条件降息"为主调，预期反复或引起市场震荡。 本文转载自"腾讯自 ...

黄金成为盘中亮点。截至当地时间10月7日收盘，COMEX黄金期货价格收报4007.9美元/盎司，创收盘价历史新高；伦敦金现货价格一度触及3991.07美元/ 盎司。10月8日，国际金价继续走强，截至北京时间7:30，COMEX黄金期货盘中最高触及4015美元/盎司。 当地时间10月7日，美股三大指数小幅下挫，国际金价迎来历史性突破，COMEX黄金期货价格收报4007.9美元/盎司，创收盘价历史新高。芝加哥商品交 易所（CME）"美联储观察"工具的数据显示，市场预期美联储将于10月继续降息，为黄金上涨提供支撑。 据央视新闻报道，正在华盛顿访问的加拿大总理卡尼当地时间10月7日与美国总统特朗普在白宫举行了卡尼就任总理以来两人的第二次会晤。特朗普再次 暗示将吞并加拿大。 美股小幅下挫 截至当地时间10月7日收盘，标普500指数下跌0.38%，道琼斯指数下跌0.2%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.67%。零售股承压，耐克跌幅超过3%。 科技板块表现不佳，美国科技七巨头指数下跌0.81%。其中特斯拉跌超4%，谷歌-C跌近2%，七巨头中仅亚马逊上涨。 | ▲ ▲ 刀得美国科技元目头指数 MAG | | | | --- | -- ...