Market Overview - The brand 100 index experienced a slight rebound in May, closing at 1063.57 points with a monthly increase of 1.09% after a long upper shadow in the K-line [1][4] - The index initially rose due to unexpected financial policies and a pause in tariff announcements between China and the US, but later faced adjustments due to weak fundamental data and profit-taking [2][4] Key Performers - Notable weekly gainers included Nongfu Spring and Lao Feng Xiang, both exceeding 4% in weekly growth, while China Mobile saw a market value increase of 568 billion yuan [2][3] - In May, Dongfang Overseas International, China Life Insurance, and China Pacific Insurance had monthly gains exceeding 15%, with Dongfang Overseas leading at 34.05% [4] New Consumption Sector - The new consumption sector remains attractive, with companies like Nongfu Spring benefiting from strong brand recognition and a robust distribution network [5] - Nongfu Spring's tea beverage revenue is projected to surpass bottled water for the first time in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of over 90% for its Oriental Leaf brand [5] Strategic Developments - Lao Feng Xiang is enhancing its product offerings and channel strategies, focusing on younger demographics and collaborations with popular IPs [6] - Anta Sports is expanding its global presence through the acquisition of the leading outdoor brand, Jack Wolfskin [6] ETF Investment Opportunities - ETFs such as E Fund (513070) and the Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) are highlighted as effective tools for investing in the new consumption sector, with significant year-to-date gains [7][10] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index includes major companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi, which collectively account for over 50% of the index weight [10][14] Long-term Outlook - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index is expected to provide long-term investment value, reflecting the evolving consumption habits of younger generations and the global expansion of leading new consumption enterprises [14]

Core Viewpoint - Bawang Chaji (CHA.US) has demonstrated robust growth in its first quarterly report since going public, with significant increases in store count, GMV, and net income, reflecting a strong performance amid global uncertainties [1][3][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a total of 6,681 stores globally, with a GMV of 8.23 billion yuan in the first quarter, marking a year-on-year increase of 38% [1][4]. - Total net revenue reached 3.39 billion yuan, up 35.4% year-on-year, while net profit was 677 million yuan, reflecting a 13.8% increase [1][4][6]. - The average monthly GMV per store decreased slightly from 456,000 yuan to 432,000 yuan, attributed to seasonal factors and the ramp-up period for new stores [4][6]. Group 2: User Growth and Marketing - The company has seen a significant increase in registered members, surpassing 190 million, with 15 million new members added in the quarter [7][10]. - Active users reached 44.9 million, maintaining a leading position in the industry [7][10]. - Increased marketing expenses contributed to user growth, with management expenses rising to 353 million yuan and sales expenses to 299 million yuan, driven by new product promotions and advertising [6][10]. Group 3: Expansion Strategy - Bawang Chaji aims to expand its international presence, with 169 overseas stores as of March 31, 2025, primarily in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, showcasing strong growth potential [12][14]. - The overseas GMV reached 178 million yuan, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 85.3%, indicating the potential of international markets [12][14]. - The company is focusing on single-market breakthroughs and expanding into high-value markets, leveraging local partnerships to enhance operational efficiency and brand recognition [14][15]. Group 4: Product Innovation - The company emphasizes product innovation centered around tea, with a strategy that includes both traditional tea drinks and new product lines like pure tea and freshly brewed tea [18][20]. - Bawang Chaji has introduced limited-time offerings and collaborations with cultural IPs to enhance brand appeal and attract diverse consumer segments [21][22]. - The company is investing significantly in product development, with administrative expenses rising to 352.8 million yuan, primarily for R&D and talent acquisition [21][22].

高频数据弱，牛初震荡延续 ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 2 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] | 执业编号：S1500521060001 | | --- | | ] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor策略首席 分析师 邮 箱： fanjituo@cindasc.com | 李畅 策略分析师 执业编号：S1500523070001 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com [高频数据弱，牛初震荡延续 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 2 日 核心结论：2022 年以来，市场出现过多次季度级别（或以上）的上涨， 2022 年 5-8 月、2022 年 11 月-2023 年 4 月、2024 年 2-5 月，股市波动 节奏都是：底部快速上涨（政策改善）->高位震荡（高频经济数据改 善）->再次下跌（高频经济数据下滑）。政策利多带来的上涨比较快， 高频数据带来的波动比较慢（高位震荡或阴 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - Citic Securities emphasizes the importance of core assets and suggests continuous low-position layouts due to increased external uncertainties and a shift in market preferences towards certainty [1] - Galaxy Securities predicts a volatile upward trend in the A-share market for June, recommending a balanced investment strategy focusing on consumption, technology, and dividend stocks [2] - Zhongtai Securities maintains a "high-low switch" viewpoint, remaining optimistic about the technology sector while advising investors to buy on dips rather than chase highs [3] Group 2: Sector Insights - Citic Securities highlights four key themes to focus on: edge AI, military industry, mergers and acquisitions, and public funds underweighting, driven by domestic stimulus policies and global geopolitical changes [1] - Galaxy Securities identifies growth opportunities in the technology sector supported by policy and industry development, alongside consumer sectors benefiting from domestic consumption policies and the expected appreciation of the RMB [2] - Zhongtai Securities notes the ongoing high demand for AI upstream computing power and servers, with expectations of continued strong performance into the second half of the year [3] Group 3: Health and Consumer Trends - Citic Jiantou reports a structural transformation in the domestic health product market, driven by new consumption characteristics, with online channels expanding rapidly while traditional pharmacies decline [4] - The health product market is seeing significant growth in anti-aging and beauty-related categories, with younger and more diverse consumer groups emerging as key drivers [4] - Brands and manufacturers with new consumption genes and cross-border strategies are expected to benefit significantly from the evolving health product landscape [4]

Market Overview - The market is expected to show a pattern of index fluctuations with large-cap and quality indices outperforming [2][3][18] - Current economic fundamentals are stable, with no significant decline in exports due to external changes, and domestic demand policies are still in a preparatory phase [3][19] - Concerns about real estate sales remain, but overall corporate profit expectations are likely to remain stable [3][19] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on quality and cash flow-based approaches as manufacturing financing demand remains weak and capital expenditure continues to decline [3][18] - The upcoming implementation of new regulations on algorithmic trading is expected to reduce trading activity, impacting small-cap stocks negatively [3][20] Sector and Industry Recommendations - Recommended sectors for June include automotive, non-ferrous metals, defense and military, retail, beauty care, and chemical pharmaceuticals, focusing on traditional capacity clearance and the rise of new consumption [4][8][22] - The external tariff uncertainties may pressure domestic economic growth, necessitating more supportive policies for stable internal growth [4][22] Economic Indicators - Total demand growth remains stable at around 4%, with industrial enterprise revenue growth at 3.6% [28][30] - The investment side faces significant pressure, with new construction in real estate and manufacturing investment continuing to decline [19][35] Financial Policies and Market Sentiment - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum is expected to announce significant financial policies aimed at stabilizing economic and market expectations [25][49] - The market is currently experiencing limited inflow of incremental funds, with insurance capital being the main force in increasing A-share holdings [20][22]

Group 1 - The recent performance of Hong Kong and A-shares has been lackluster, with market movements heavily influenced by U.S. events, particularly Trump's tariff actions [1] - Trump's recent threats to impose tariffs on the EU and increase steel tariffs to 50% have created volatility in the markets, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policy [1][2] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 5%, raising concerns about the stability of U.S. debt and its implications for the broader financial market [1][2] Group 2 - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is gaining attention, characterized by a diverse range of companies from bubble tea to beauty products, indicating a broad interpretation of consumer spending [5][6] - Major internet companies in China, such as Meituan and Xiaomi, reported strong earnings, with Meituan exceeding revenue and profit expectations despite ongoing competition with JD.com [6] - PDD's financial performance has been mixed, with revenue growth but a significant drop in net profit, attributed to government subsidies and market conditions, leading to volatility in its stock price [6] Group 3 - The IPO market in Hong Kong has shown a positive trend, with a low first-day loss rate of 28.6% for new listings, the lowest since 2017 [7] - New stock performance varies significantly, with some companies like Ningde Times and Guanshi Shuduan showing substantial first-day gains, while others like Paige Biopharma experienced significant losses [8] - The strategy for participating in new stock offerings emphasizes quick exits within three days, suggesting a focus on short-term gains rather than long-term holdings [8][9]

New Product Launches - Pitaya launched a new line of swirl smoothie bowls using organic superfruits in single-serve frozen form [2][3] - Jianai introduced yogurt frozen treats in original and mango passion fruit flavors, with over 80% fresh milk content [6] - BIRKENSTOCK released the FLORIDA spring/summer collection, reinterpreting the classic sandal design [6] - Nestlé collaborated with Hongdu to create seasonal limited products inspired by the fragrance of Chinese gardenia [9] - Meco cup fruit tea announced the boy band Times Youth League as its new brand ambassador [11] - Xiaoguan Tea entered the fast-moving consumer goods market with a new product line [11] Industry Events - Lavazza opened its first university store at Fudan University, targeting the Gen Z demographic [11] - The popular cake brand Muxinshan opened 800 stores within a year of establishment [11] - Bubble Mart launched its first MEGA COLLECTION store in Chengdu [11] - Chinese colored contact lens brand LEMONADE expanded into the South Korean market [31] Financing Activities - Wailuo secured $60 million in financing, focusing on marketing technology services for consumer brands [18] - Bloobloom, a fashion eyewear brand, raised £3 million in a new funding round [20] - Chaxingren completed nearly 50 million yuan in angel round financing, aimed at technology development and capacity building [20] - IMCOCO Group, involved in the coconut water industry, announced a significant Pre-A round financing [22] Food and Beverage Innovations - Kay Tea launched a new line of instant iced tea powders aimed at the UK market [25] - Meiji introduced a salted lemon-flavored Bulgarian yogurt in Japan [26] - Kweichow Moutai announced a new high-end product series, featuring premium beef noodles [26] - Yuhua launched a new series of HPP (High Pressure Processing) products, including various fruit juices [27] Beauty and Personal Care Developments - FRED launched a new high-end jewelry collection for 2025, featuring 19 pieces [28][29] - Walmart plans to pilot a "beauty bar" project in 40 stores to enhance the shopping experience [31] - Huaxizi introduced a new lipstick series inspired by traditional Chinese culture [31]

Group 1 - A-shares in May showed a fluctuating market with over 5000 stocks averaging a gain higher than April, with themes like gold, yellow wine, innovative drugs, controllable nuclear fusion, aerospace military industry, and digital currency rising rapidly [1][2] - The semiconductor, robotics, and software development sectors underperformed the market, indicating a divergence in sector performance [1][2] - The average increase of stocks in May was 5.28%, with the median increase at 3.5%, contrasting with April's average decrease of -2.12% [2] Group 2 - The ST or *ST stocks saw an average increase of 14% in May, with 59 stocks rising over 20%, reflecting a shift in market focus towards speculative trading during the earnings vacuum period [3] - New consumption trends are emerging, focusing on smart consumption and personalized products, with significant interest in sectors like beauty care and gold jewelry, which outperformed major indices [4][5] - The gold jewelry sector index rose by 9.53% in May, with individual stocks like Mankalon and Chaohongji seeing increases over 43% [5][6] Group 3 - The robotics sector has faced a downturn, with the Wind Robotics Index declining after reaching a historical high in February, and many stocks in this sector have retraced significantly [6] - Institutions anticipate that June will favor large-cap stocks, with a balanced approach to growth and value, particularly in consumer services and growth sectors [7][8] - The market outlook for June suggests a focus on domestic development stages, with an emphasis on new consumption and potential policy support for economic stability [7][8]

Core Insights - The article discusses various new consumer products and brand collaborations, highlighting trends in the beverage and fashion industries, as well as investment activities in the consumer sector [3][4][8][9][12]. Product Launches - G-SHOCK and Crocs have launched a collaborative shoe line called "Echo Wave," featuring a classic EVA sole and a unique waterproof design [3]. - Wahaha has introduced a new sugar-free tea product under the "Wah Xiaozong" trademark, which is managed by the Hongsheng Group [4]. - Coca-Cola has released a limited-time product in North America, combining Sprite with tea, inspired by a popular trend on TikTok [4]. - Naixue has launched its first caffeine-free bottled drink, made with South African jasmine and other natural ingredients [6]. Collaborations and Acquisitions - Patta and Rapha have collaborated for a second time to promote cycling culture through a new apparel collection [4]. - LVMH family consortium has made a €60 million acquisition offer for the French sports brand Le Coq Sportif, aiming to revitalize the brand [9][12]. - Chobani is reportedly acquiring plant-based food manufacturer Daily Harvest, although the terms of the deal are not disclosed [9]. - L'Oréal is a strong contender in the acquisition of the UK skincare brand Medi K8, which focuses on effective skincare products [9]. Investment Activities - Pupu Supermarket is planning to go public in Hong Kong, currently covering nine cities with over 400 front warehouses [8]. - Guangfan Technology has secured a new round of investment, focusing on AI applications and smart device manufacturing [9]. Brand Collaborations - Louis Vuitton and Takashi Murakami have released the final chapter of their collaboration, celebrating 20 years of partnership with over 70 collectible items [13]. - Roxy and Anta have launched a functional lifestyle capsule collection aimed at the Gen Z consumer market [13]. - Huang Zitao's sanitary napkin brand "Duo Wei" has been launched with an investment of 275 million yuan, offering various product types [13]. New Product Offerings - i Moutai has introduced promotional pricing for its red wine products, with discounts available for consumers [14]. - The high-end hot pot brand Cuocuo has announced a collaboration with the international IP Miffy for a themed experience [14].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective adjustment, while the consumer sector remained resilient, highlighted by the performance of the largest consumer ETF (159928) which maintained a steady trading volume exceeding 200 million yuan, ranking first among its peers [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer ETF (159928) showed mixed performance among its key components, with the aquaculture sector performing strongly, including a more than 4% increase in Muyuan Foods and over 2% in Dongpeng Beverage, while Kweichow Moutai fell over 1% [3] - As of May 29, the consumer ETF (159928) index had a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.79, placing it at the 0.47 percentile of its valuation over the past decade, indicating it is cheaper than 99% of the time in the last ten years [8] Group 2: Economic and Policy Insights - CITIC Securities anticipates a recovery in domestic demand by the first half of 2025, driven by ongoing policy support aimed at boosting consumption, despite increased market volatility and uncertainty [4] - The report outlines four slow-moving variables affecting the macroeconomic landscape, including aging population, smaller family units, AI-driven production changes, and complex external environments, which are fostering new consumption trends [4] - The short-term recovery in consumption-related sectors is expected to depend on overall macroeconomic expectations, with 2025 potentially marking a turning point for domestic consumption [5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Nomura Orient identifies four key investment strategies for the food and beverage sector in the second half of 2025, focusing on high-line cities, the recovery of the restaurant sector, the development of domestic consumption, and high dividend yields [7][8] - The consumer sector is expected to see a shift towards rational consumption, quality upgrades, and emotional value spending, alongside technological advancements creating new consumption opportunities [5][6] Group 4: Sector Composition - The top ten holdings of the consumer ETF (159928) account for 67% of its weight, with leading liquor stocks comprising 31% and major pig farming companies at 13% [9] - Key stocks include Yili (10.73%), Kweichow Moutai (10.31%), and Wuliangye (8.88%), indicating a strong presence of essential consumer goods within the ETF [9]