Group 1: Fundamental Analysis of Spot Gold - The core viewpoint is that a significant trade agreement between China and the U.S. has led to a major easing of tariffs, resulting in a sharp decline in spot gold prices [2] - Following the agreement on May 12, 2025, spot gold prices fell nearly $80, reaching a low of $3245.85 per ounce, and continued to decline to $3137.33 per ounce by May 15, representing a drop of over 9% from April highs [2] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced risk aversion due to trade easing, with funds moving from gold to the stock market, alongside a rebound in the U.S. dollar index to 101.04 and a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.536%, increasing the holding cost of gold [2] - There is a divergence between the physical and financial markets, with brand gold jewelry prices falling to 975-992 yuan per gram, while demand for gold bars increased by 29.81% in the first quarter, indicating stable consumer decision-making [2] - The outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing U.S.-China trade dynamics, but geopolitical risks and global central bank gold purchases (with China increasing holdings for six consecutive months) provide medium to long-term support for gold prices, with institutions predicting a rise to $3500.00-$3700.00 by year-end [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Spot Gold - The recent price movements in the spot gold market have shown volatility, with a low of $3120.57 followed by a V-shaped recovery, currently priced around $3238.00 per ounce [3] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish arrangement in the 15-minute moving average, suggesting a higher probability of short-term price increases [3] - A trading strategy is recommended, advising investors to consider going long if prices fall to the support level of $3215.50, with a stop-loss set at $3190.00 and a take-profit target at the resistance level of $3265.00 [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Spot Silver - The spot silver market did not break the key support level of $31.630 as expected, instead rebounding strongly after testing this support, with current prices around $32.660 [5] - The 15-minute short-term chart shows a bullish arrangement in the moving averages, indicating a high probability of continued price increases in the short term [5] - A specific trading guideline suggests waiting for a price drop to the support level of $32.550 to go long, with a stop-loss at $32.290 and a take-profit target at the resistance level of $32.920 [5]

由于预期美联储将退出量化宽松政策，美元指数继续走强，全面压制大宗商品价格，国际黄金价格连续 四天下跌。。截至昨天下午17点，国际黄金盘中低点触及每盎司1369.95美元。。 4月15日，国际黄金价格下跌9.3%，创下30年来最大单日跌幅。。4月16日，国际现货黄金在早盘交易 中跌至1,321.5美元，触及2011年2月以来的最低水平。。随后，国际黄金价格强劲反弹150美元，达到每 盎司1,487美元的最高值。。然而，自5月15日以来，国际黄金价格下跌了2%，跌破每盎司1,400美元， 达到近一个月的最低点。。截至昨天下午17点，黄金价格盘中最高下跌至29美元，最低触及每盎司 1369.95美元。。 在4月中旬的一轮黄金暴跌中，西安各大金店的"阿姨"们疯狂抢购黄金，西安一些金店出现断货。。记 者咨询了几家金店，了解到购买黄金主要有三种类型的顾客：第一种是纯粹的投资者，占一半以上，他 们长期购买金条只是为了投资，只要金价下跌就会购买。。第二类是需求固定的消费者，他们主要购买 结婚所需的珠宝。。第三类是那些盲目从众的人。。"超过80%的客户购买黄金在30克以内。。一家品 牌金店的负责人认为，这种小投资不会带来姨妈被 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices, which fell by 6% from April 22 to May 14, has raised concerns among investors and consumers, despite a significant increase in gold purchases earlier in the year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold fund transaction volume reached approximately 190 billion, with a 6% price drop during the same period [1]. - Gold stocks experienced a more significant decline, dropping over 8% [1]. - Retail sales of gold and jewelry increased by 11% year-on-year, with gold bar and coin purchases rising by 30% [3]. Group 2: Regional Disparities - Retail sales of gold and jewelry in Beijing grew by 29% year-on-year, while Guangzhou saw a 15% increase, both exceeding the national average [4]. - In contrast, Shanghai's retail sales for the same category declined by 9% [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced safe-haven demand, a stronger US dollar, decreased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, profit-taking by speculators, and a slowdown in central bank gold purchases [6][10]. - Despite the current price drop, it remains above the levels seen in the first quarter, indicating that investors are not yet at a loss [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Research institutions express caution, noting an increase in hedging by gold producers and a decline in recycled gold after eight consecutive quarters of growth, suggesting a higher likelihood of price adjustments [12]. - However, there is optimism regarding the long-term support for gold prices due to the ongoing contraction of US dollar credit [12].

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell by 0.16% to close at 100.878, indicating a decline against a basket of currencies, except for the euro [1] - In April, US retail and food services sales amounted to $724.1 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, which was below the revised 1.7% increase in March [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US decreased by 0.5% month-on-month in April, contrary to market expectations of a 0.2% increase, while the year-on-year growth was 2.4%, lower than March's 2.7% [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that long-term interest rates in the US are likely to rise due to economic changes and ongoing policy adjustments [2] - The eurozone's GDP growth rate for Q1 was 0.3%, below the expected 0.4%, while the year-on-year growth remained at 1.2% [2] - Exchange rates showed the euro at 1.1178 USD, the British pound at 1.3299 USD, and the Japanese yen at 145.68 USD, all reflecting declines against the dollar [2]

彭博美元指数跌0.15%，报1230.70点，日内交投区间为1232.16-1227.49点，全天处于下跌状态。 周四（5月15日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数跌0.16%，报100.877点，日内交投区间为101.055-100.589点， 仅仅北京时间08:04前后短暂地转涨。 ...

新华财经北京5月15日电（王晓伟）美国4月零售销售环比增长0.1%，预期值为0%，前值为1.4%。数据显示，美国4月份零售 额几乎没有增长，这表明消费者在担心关税导致的价格上涨的情况下缩减了支出。美国PPI和零售销售数据公布后，美元指 数短线小幅走低约10点。 根据美国人口普查局的数据，4月份整体零售额增长0.1%，略高于经济学家对销售额环比持平的预期，远低于3月份1.7%的增 幅。 15日发布的数据中的对照组下跌0.2%，该指数将几个波动的类别和因素排除在该季度的国内生产总值（GDP）读数中；对照 组3月份的销售额增长了0.5%。经济学家预计增长0.3%。 不包括汽车和天然气的3月销售额增长0.2%，低于市场预期的0.3%，低于上月的1.1%的增幅。 体育用品和业余爱好商店的销售额下降2.5%导致下降，而百货公司的销售额下降1.4%。专业零售商也下降了2.1%。 图为：美国零售和食品服务销售额环比变化来源：美国人口普查局 图为：美国零售销售月率趋势变化图数据来源：美国人口普查局 4月份的数据是在3月份大幅增长之后发布的，3月销售额增幅为此前两年多来的最大水平，因消费者在美国的大部分关税即 将实施之前抢购商品 ...

美元指数DXY短线走低15点，现报100.67。 ...

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index has slightly decreased by approximately 10 points, currently reported at 100.79 [1] - US stock futures have shown a slight increase, with the Nasdaq 100 index futures narrowing their decline to 0.5% [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has decreased slightly, currently at 4.513% [1][7] Group 2 - Spot gold has shown little fluctuation, currently priced at 3182.88 USD per ounce, with a slight increase of 5.56 USD (+0.17%) [9]

美元指数DXY短线走低超10点，现报100.76。 ...

升 贴 水 、 库 存 、 E T F 持 仓 变 化 | | | | 贵金属早报 | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 表 现 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦银 | 伦敦铂 | | 伦敦钯 | WTI原油 | LME铜 | | 最新 | 3191.95 | 32.89 | 990.00 | | 950.00 | 63.15 | 9624.50 | | 变化 | -36.00 | -0.09 | 7.00 | | -12.00 | -0.52 | 59.50 | | 品种 | 美元指数 | 欧元兑美元 | 英镑兑美元 | | 美元兑日元 | 美国10年期TIPS | | | 最新 | 101.07 | 1.12 | 1.33 | | 146.76 | - | | | 变化 | 0.08 | -0.00 | -0.00 | | -0.73 | - | | | 交 易 数 据 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | COMEX白银 库存 | 上 ...