换资前言： 任何市场的交易风险第一位，利润才是第二，如果不能做好风控，一切都是枉然！这个市场永远不缺盲 目胆大的。投资做的是技术和胜率，不是靠运气！一次或者十次你都能正确，然而在一次的失误中就能 损失殆尽，甚至本金都血本无归。这是为什么？因为投资是细水长流，不能用赌的心里做交易，因为你 没有做风控保护，不好的操作习惯没有纠正和改变，看到行情不能自控。所谓技术+经验+风控才会等 于"财富"。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周五（9月26日），现货黄金延续涨势，突破近期3720-3760美元的震荡区间。此前最新公布的个人消费 支出（PCE）通胀报告未显示新的上行意外，美元因此走软，为金价提供助力。现货黄金美盘中最高触 及3783美元回落3760附近整理，徘徊于本周早些时候创下的3791美元历史高点下方，盘尾回调收于 3760.5附近。受贸易紧张局势再起及地缘政治风险推动，避险需求对金价形成支撑，目前金价实现连续 第六周上涨。强劲的消费者支出推动第二季度GDP年化增长3.8%。亚特兰大联储将第三季度GDP增速 预期从3.3%上调至3.9%。美联储上周降息25个基点，将利率区间调整至4. ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has imposed a surprising 39% tariff on Swiss imports, which has left Switzerland in shock, particularly affecting its luxury watch industry, including brands like Rolex [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The new tariff rate of 39% is the highest among European countries and represents an 8 percentage point increase from the previously announced 31% rate in April [4]. - Nearly 60% of Swiss exports to the U.S. will be impacted by this new tariff, significantly straining the economic relationship between the two countries [4]. Group 2: Corporate Response - Rolex's CEO, Jean-Frederic Dufour, clarified that the invitation to President Trump to attend the U.S. Open was based on a commitment to sports values and international friendship, not a compromise with the U.S. government [3]. - Dufour emphasized that there were no substantive discussions regarding tariffs or trade policies during the event, and Rolex has never negotiated with the U.S. government on tariff issues [3]. Group 3: Political Reactions - Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized the optics of Trump joking about tariffs while attending a luxury event sponsored by a high-end watch brand, highlighting the disconnect with American families affected by the tariff policies [4]. - The White House responded to Warren's concerns by dismissing them as conspiracy theories, suggesting she should focus on more pressing matters [4].

Core Points - The trade negotiations between the US and India have reached a stalemate, with escalating tensions and dramatic developments [1][3] - Indian Prime Minister Modi has firmly rejected US overtures, maintaining a strong stance on purchasing Russian oil while demanding the US lift the 25% tariffs on Indian goods [3][5] - The US retaliated by revoking India's sanctions exemption for operations at Iran's Chabahar port and tightening H-1B visa policies, but India remains resolute in protecting its farmers' interests [3][5] Summary by Sections - **US-India Trade Relations** - The US has shown a sudden shift in strategy, with President Trump extending birthday wishes to Modi, indicating a desire for improved relations [1] - Modi's response has been to demand concessions from the US, particularly regarding tariffs, while refusing to compromise on oil imports from Russia [3] - **Energy Pricing Dynamics** - India has highlighted the price advantages of Russian oil over US oil, with specific prices noted: - Russian oil: $68.9 per barrel - Saudi oil: $77.5 per barrel - US oil: $74.2 per barrel - This pricing strategy underscores India's preference for cost-effective energy sources [3] - **Military Developments** - India is considering abandoning US-made engines for its indigenous Tejas Mk-2 fighter jets in favor of French products [9] - The successful test of the Agni-Prime missile, with a range of 2000 kilometers, showcases India's military capabilities and its reliance on Russian technology [9] - **Geopolitical Implications** - The ongoing trade tensions reflect the failure of Trump's tariff policies and highlight India's determination to uphold its national interests against pressure from a superpower [9]

Core Viewpoint - The joint economic forecast report from five major German economic research institutions predicts only a slight growth of 0.2% for the German economy in 2025, highlighting ongoing structural weaknesses and the adverse impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade [1][2]. Economic Growth Outlook - The German economy has been in recession for the past two years, with stagnation observed in the first half of this year. Although government stimulus policies may lead to a potential rebound, widespread recovery is not expected due to persistent structural issues [1]. - The report emphasizes that traditional growth drivers, such as strong export growth and robust manufacturing, have diminished, indicating that future recovery will rely more on domestic economic activity supported by fiscal stimulus [1]. Impact of U.S. Tariffs - U.S. tariff policies are identified as a significant negative factor for both the German and global economic growth, with experts noting that the adverse effects of these tariffs are beginning to manifest [1][2]. - The assistant researcher at the German Economic Institute stated that the U.S. tariffs will continue to cast a shadow over the global economy, complicating international trade and leading to adjustments in global supply chains and production structures [2]. Risks to German Economy - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies poses a risk to the recovery of the German economy, particularly affecting its export-oriented sectors. Any escalation in U.S. tariffs could directly impact Germany's export industry [2].

Group 1: Core Views - The recent U.S. tariff policy changes will not apply to countries that have trade agreements with the U.S., such as the EU and Japan, which will maintain a 15% tariff cap on pharmaceuticals [2][4] - President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all brand-name and patented drugs starting October 1, 2025, unless companies establish manufacturing in the U.S. [4][5] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has urged the government to reconsider new tariffs on heavy trucks, emphasizing that major import sources are allies and do not pose a security threat [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the new tariffs, pharmaceutical stocks showed mixed performance in the U.S. market, with Novavax rising by 2.52% and Moderna falling by 0.49% [1] - Japanese and South Korean pharmaceutical stocks mostly declined, with notable drops including Sumitomo Pharma down over 3% and Samsung Biologics down over 2% [1] Group 3: Impact on Other Industries - The Canadian steel industry has faced significant declines due to U.S. tariffs, with production down 24.8% and exports down 25.5% since March [7] - The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau reported a 4.7% year-over-year increase in furniture prices due to tariff impacts [5]

美国经济分析局（BEA）数据显示，8月PCE环比增长0.3%，较7月加快0.1个百分点；从同比来看，PCE 上涨2.7%，高于7月的2.6%。 当地时间周五，美国公布了8月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数。作为美联储最关注的物价指标之一， 数据显示关税压力正在继续缓慢推高物价，不过消费者支出和个人收入月率稳健增长给经济提供了重要 动力。市场继续维持今年两次降息的定价，并将目光转向下周五的非农就业报告。 物价走高但压力可控 尽管目前尚未出现全面的通胀上升，但部分受关税影响的商品价格已大幅上涨。企业通过消化关税生效 前囤积的库存，避免了通胀失控。然而，不少经济学家认为这种情况不会无限期持续，预计企业终将在 某个时点将关税成本更大范围地转嫁给消费者。今年第二季度，企业库存已出现下降。 与此同时，美国政府仍在推动更多关税政策，本周特朗普宣布对品牌药品征收100%的关税，对重型卡 车征收25%的关税。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，8月核心PCE价格指数环比增长0.2%，同比增长2.9%，均与7月持 平。 分类别看，服务价格上涨 0.3%，主要反映在机票、酒店住宿、金融服务与保险、住房及公用事业等领 域，推动了PCE通 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced that new tariffs on pharmaceuticals will not apply to countries with existing trade agreements, maintaining a 15% tariff cap for partners like the EU and Japan [1][2] - President Trump declared a 100% tariff on all brand-name and patented drugs starting October 1, complicating the recently established U.S.-EU pharmaceutical tariff agreement [2][3] - European pharmaceutical companies, including Roche, Novartis, and AstraZeneca, may benefit from exemptions if they have initiated drug production investments in the U.S., but most face new tariff barriers [2][3] Group 2 - The Belgian Pharmaceutical Association expressed concerns that the new tariffs violate the U.S.-EU agreement and could significantly impact multiple EU countries, creating uncertainty for investment decisions [3] - Economic analysts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley indicated that the tariffs could lead to increased prices for EU goods in the U.S., potentially passing the burden onto American consumers [4] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing growth, with predictions of only 1.25% growth in 2026, significantly lower than the expected 2.8% in 2024, partly due to the impact of tariff policies [4]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.31% this week, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones dropped by 0.65% and 0.15% respectively [1] - On Friday, U.S. stocks rose, with the S&P 500 gaining nearly 0.6%, driven by better-than-expected personal income and consumption data for August [2] - The August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.3% month-on-month, while the core PCE remained unchanged at 0.2%, both meeting market expectations [4] Individual Stocks - Electronic Arts (EA) shares surged by 14.4% as reports emerged that the company is nearing a privatization deal valued at $50 billion, with investors including Silver Lake and Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund [7] - PACCAR, a truck manufacturer, saw its stock rise by 5.1% following the announcement of new import tariffs affecting heavy trucks [6] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Oracle down 2.7%, Meta down 0.7%, and Apple down 0.5%, while Tesla rose by 4.0% [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. personal income increased by 0.4% and personal consumption expenditures rose by 0.6% in August, indicating economic resilience [2][4] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised down from 55.4 to 55.1 for September, reflecting concerns about economic conditions [5] - The market anticipates two 25 basis point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, despite internal disagreements within the Fed regarding inflation predictions [5]

Core Insights - The Canadian steel and related manufacturing industry has experienced significant declines in both output and export volumes due to the ongoing impact of high U.S. tariffs [1] Output Summary - Since the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum in March, the output of Canada's steel and iron alloy manufacturing sector decreased by 24.8% in July compared to February [1] - Following the increase of the tariff rate to 50% in June, the industry saw a monthly output contraction of 19.1% in July, marking the largest monthly decline of the year [1] Export Summary - In July, the export volume of unrefined steel and iron alloys from Canada fell by 25.5% compared to February [1] - Exports of basic and semi-finished steel products experienced an even more substantial decline, dropping by 34.4% compared to February [1]

Economic Indicators - The ISM reports will provide an early look at September's economic performance and will not be affected by the government shutdown [1] - The ADP employment report is expected to gain importance due to recent uncertainties surrounding government labor statistics, serving as an alternative source of information [3][4] Earnings Reports - Key earnings reports to watch include Carnival on Monday and Nike on Tuesday, with the jobs report being the most significant event of the week [2] Trade and Tariffs - The White House is increasing Section 232 investigations and tariffs to strengthen its trade agenda amid scrutiny of existing tariffs [5] - There is speculation that the Supreme Court may strike down AIPA tariffs, which would shift the burden to Section 232 tariffs, creating uncertainty for corporate America [6] Market Reactions - Recent tariff announcements did not significantly impact markets, but there is relief regarding pharmaceutical tariffs, although uncertainty remains [7] - Energy stocks have performed well, influenced by rising crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions related to the Ukraine conflict [8][9] Federal Reserve Expectations - Higher job openings could lead to doubts about the Federal Reserve's plans for rate cuts, particularly affecting small-cap stocks [10] - A strong jobs report may lead to upward pressure on yields and alter Fed expectations, potentially resulting in a more cautious approach to rate cuts [11][12]