CRO 行业景气度跟踪 - 实验猴市场供需分析 20250611 摘要 2022 年至 2024 年，国内实验猴总存栏量小幅增长，食蟹猴占比稳定 增加，但猕猴数量先增后降，受实验猴价格波动影响，下游用户策略调 整是主因。 国内繁殖种群数量逐年上升，食蟹猴为主要增长点，但增幅有限。猕猴 种群虽有政策支持，但总量仍偏低，无法有效缓解市场对实验猴的需求 压力。 实验猴价格在 2022 年达到顶峰后回落，影响市场供需。高价促使下游 用户转向猕猴，但价格回落后趋势放缓，市场整体仍供不应求。 国内商品猴存栏量在 2022-2024 年间波动，受实验猴使用数量影响。 2023 年使用量下滑导致存栏增加，2024 年库存消耗殆尽，存栏下降。 国内一岁以下婴猴数量逐年增长，食蟹猴出生数稳定增加，但老龄化问 题突出，12 岁以上食蟹猕占比最高，影响整体繁殖率和新生小猕供给。 国内实验猴市场销量波动大，2023 年因客户观望情绪销量骤降，2024 年显著回升。食蟹猴销量占比高，猕猴销量逐年增加，但总量仍较低。 实验用食蟹猴价格经历显著波动，2023 年高价急转直下，目前维持 10 万元左右。市场需求及外部因素对价格影响巨大，未来或 ...

Group 1 - The core issue identified is that many investors struggle to execute stop-loss and take-profit strategies effectively, often leading to missed opportunities for profit-taking even when they hold a bearish view on a stock [1][2] - Investors' hesitation to sell stocks, despite having a bearish outlook, is attributed to past trading experiences where they may have sold too early and missed subsequent price increases, creating a psychological barrier [1][2] - When investors' analysis indicates a stock will decline but the stock price continues to rise, they tend to doubt their analysis rather than the market facts, making it difficult to act decisively [1][2] Group 2 - The expectation of selling at the highest price is a common pitfall for investors, as even institutional investors cannot consistently achieve this, highlighting the unpredictability of the market [2] - The advice given is for investors to accept that they cannot always sell at the peak and to focus on securing profits when available, which is essential for long-term investment success [2]

高温天气席卷欧洲 欧洲天然气价格上涨 金十数据6月11日讯，欧洲天然气价格扭转了连续三天的跌势，因为高于正常水平的气温开始影响欧洲 大陆，这可能会推高空调的使用量。欧洲天然气期货基准合约周三涨幅最高达2.2%。根据Atmospheric G2的数据，未来两周，欧洲各地的气温将保持在平均水平以上，制冷需求将飙升至2022年7月以来的最 高水平。在伦敦，气温将达到热浪的临界值，超过30摄氏度。随着夏季气温峰值的临近，欧洲和亚洲的 天然气市场可能会使有限的全球燃料供应更加紧俏。 ...

综合来看，后期玉米需求存减少预期，但玉米仍有刚需支撑。在需求减弱的情况下，玉米供需关系或有 缓和，但供应面支撑明显，预计6—7月份玉米价格或仍有上涨空间。 不过，当前行业人士对豆粕价格走势仍不乐观。 卓创资讯豆粕分析师王文深认为，从供需情况看，豆粕整体以供大于需为主，2024年由于需求端低迷， 叠加国内供应端较为平稳，因此价格整体震荡下行。2025年以来供需变化较为高频，主要原因在于海关 大豆通关检疫时间的收紧和放松不确定，叠加中美关税问题再度升温，使得整体供需变化较快，阶段性 的出现供应短缺的情况，在4月表现最为明显，5月下旬开始，供需紧张情况开始缓解后，现货价格开始 走弱。 6月11日，国内期货市场豆粕主力合约价格再度上行，上午收盘报3042元/吨，较5月中旬2861元/吨的前 期低点已上涨超6%。 回顾今年玉米市场走势，卓创资讯（301299）玉米分析师张文萍称，2024年10月份新季玉米集中上市至 今，全国玉米均价整体呈现先窄幅反弹后下探再涨的走势。新季玉米上市初期，价格跌破多数农户心理 预期，农户惜售情绪加重，出货积极性下降，供应阶段性收紧，玉米价格窄幅反弹。但入冬以后气温偏 高，玉米储存难度大，部 ...

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 6月11日（周三）早盘盘初上涨0.51%报773.49元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 6月11日（周三）早盘盘初下跌0.0%报8895.0元/千克。 ...

LME期铝收涨14美元，报2492美元/吨。 LME期锌收涨8美元，报2658美元/吨。 LME期铅收跌5美元，报1982美元/吨。 LME期镍收跌103美元，报15318美元/吨。 LME期锡收涨2美元，报32711美元/吨。 LME期钴收平，报33335美元/吨。 LME期铜收跌36美元，报9756美元/吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of 97% chlorantraniliprole has been adjusted to 300,000 yuan/ton due to limited supply of upstream raw materials, marking an increase of over 40% compared to the low point of 210,000 yuan/ton last year. This price adjustment is expected to lead to a phase of price increase in the market for chlorantraniliprole [1][2]. Industry Summary - Chlorantraniliprole has a global annual sales exceeding $2 billion, making it the largest insecticide worldwide. It was discovered by the former DuPont company in 2000 and was first launched in 2008. The expiration of its compound patent in China on August 13, 2022, significantly changed the market landscape [2]. - Following the patent expiration, the market price of chlorantraniliprole continued to decline, with a cumulative drop of 34.38% from 320,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2024 to 210,000 yuan/ton by the end of the year. However, since 2025, prices have rebounded from 210,000 yuan/ton to 228,000 yuan/ton as of May 25, 2025, reflecting an increase of 8.57% [2]. - Currently, over 100,000 tons/year of chlorantraniliprole production capacity is under construction or planned in China. However, actual progress has been hindered by the supply of intermediates and the continuous decline in raw material prices [2]. Company Responses - Lianhua Technology announced that it provides advanced intermediates for chlorantraniliprole through a CDMO business model and does not directly produce chlorantraniliprole. The company has a long-term partnership with its client and has not received any notifications regarding increased demand for related products [3]. - Huayong Co. stated that it has an annual production capacity of 2,000 tons of chlorantraniliprole and intermediates, with steady progress in project construction [3]. - Lier Chemical expressed optimism about the market prospects for chlorantraniliprole and is currently constructing a production facility with a capacity of 5,000 tons/year [3]. - Liming Co. indicated that its products cover various categories of insecticides, and if chlorantraniliprole supply tightens, it may boost the demand for its widely used insecticides, such as abamectin and methomyl, which have overlapping efficacy with chlorantraniliprole [4]. - Industry insiders noted that if the price of chlorantraniliprole rises sharply in the short term, downstream users may opt for alternative insecticides, increasing the demand for substitutes [4].

Core Viewpoint - Wheat prices have declined from a seven-week high due to improved yield expectations in Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, driven by favorable weather conditions [1] Price Movement - Chicago wheat futures fell by 2.7% to $5.40 per bushel, marking a decrease from the peak levels seen since mid-April [1] Market Dynamics - Prior to this decline, grain prices had been on an upward trend, largely due to optimistic expectations that competitively priced U.S. wheat would boost global demand [1] - However, the ample supply from Russia may hinder U.S. exporters from expanding their sales further [1]

纽约原糖价格止跌，因市场猜测糖厂将转向将更多甘蔗用于乙醇生产，而非制作甜味剂。最活跃 期货 合约一度上涨1.3%，随后涨幅收窄。近几周价格持续走低，上周五收于四年低点，主要受到主要产糖 国供应充裕的预期影响。目前，市场开始担忧全球最大食糖出口国巴西的产量可能受到价格疲软的影 响。尽管大多数市场估计巴西今年将最大限度地提高食糖产量，但位于远离港口地区的糖厂面临风险。 这些糖厂的运输成本较高，可能发现生产生物燃料更具盈利性，而生物燃料通常用于国内市场。 ...

振华股份 20250608 摘要 公司金属铬订单价格稳定，最高含税价为 75,000 元/吨，低于市场价 76,000 元/吨，可能存在市场误解，实际执行价格因地区、级别和客户 需求而异，公开市场信息可能不完全准确。 下半年经营格局受大客户采购影响，预计分两批交付，厂商囤货导致 5 月初惜售，高于 76,000 元/吨，本月末开始正常生产排产后，将有富余 产能，以 7 万元以上价格销售仍有利润。 金属铬价格波动是市场情绪表达，需关注大客户交付后的供需博弈结果， 公司认为金属本身带来的业绩弹性较小，化合物层面的供给紧张才是核 心利润增量来源。 上游化合物传导迹象明显，冶金级氧化铬绿含税执行价高于信息平台， 铬矿石到重铬酸钠等源头铬盐涨价幅度显著，上个月新签订单均价高于 年初价格 20%。 2025 年业绩弹性主要由量增长驱动，而非价格，二季度产品提价较慢， 但因量增加导致业绩弹性显著，将在半年报中充分体现。 Q&A 振华股份股价波动的原因是什么？ 振华股份股价波动主要与金属市场价格的变化有关。上周五，市场上金属铬的 执行价格出现下调，引起了资本市场的关注。然而，公司销售部门并未调整报 价，湖北地区含税价格仍为 ...