工业硅周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 供应维持宽松，工业硅低位震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 ⚫ 上周工业硅低位震荡，主因全球贸易局势仍然不明，我国 工业企业利润增速转正，工业品市场情绪仍然较为低迷。 供应来看，新疆地区开工率维持7成左右，川滇地区开工 率依然偏低，企业生产压力加大亏损面持续扩大，供应端 转入收缩；从需求侧来看，多晶硅5月部分企业有减产计 划，硅片企业后续有减产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.222 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 458 million yuan, reflecting a 30% increase compared to the previous year [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of 2 billion yuan for 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 11 times [6]. - The Q1 operating expense ratio was 3.86%, showing further optimization compared to the previous quarter. The financial expense ratio was -2.72%, mainly due to fluctuations in exchange gains and losses [11]. - The net operating cash flow for Q1 was 265 million yuan, indicating a healthy operational status [11]. Business Segments - The photovoltaic business is expected to see a significant year-on-year increase in battery module shipments in Q1, with production capacity in Indonesia nearly fully utilized. This is primarily due to the battery supply gap caused by U.S. tariffs on Southeast Asian countries [11]. - The magnetic materials segment is anticipated to maintain stable profit growth with year-on-year shipment increases [11]. - The lithium battery segment is also expected to show year-on-year shipment growth and maintain profitability [11]. Future Outlook - For 2025, the impact of U.S. tariffs on the photovoltaic business is expected to be limited, as there is a battery supply gap in the U.S. with potential price increases. Additionally, the tariffs on Indonesian products are relatively low, and production costs in Indonesia still have room for optimization, suggesting continued excess profitability from this segment [11]. - The magnetic materials segment is projected to continue increasing market share, particularly in new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI, becoming a significant growth driver [11].

2025年4月25日，国晟科技发布了2024年年报。报告显示，公司全年实现营业总收入20.94亿元，同比增 长111.94%，但归属于母公司股东的净利润为-1.06亿元，同比下降53.20%。尽管营收大幅增长，净利润 仍处于亏损状态，显示出公司在光伏和园林生态业务上的扩张并未带来实质性的盈利改善。 公司坚定落实结算回款工作，通过诉讼回款和工程回款等多种措施，完成了多个项目的尾款结账，保障 了应收款项的顺利回收。然而，回款压力依然存在，特别是在地方政府债务问题日益严峻的背景下，公 司需要进一步加强风险识别和把控能力，以确保财务健康。 股权激励：绑定员工利益，目标高企 为提升员工归属感和积极性，国晟科技在2024年推出了限制性股票与股票期权激励计划，激励对象包括 高级管理人员、核心技术人员和核心业务人员。股权解锁条件要求2025年营业收入不低于20亿元，2026 年不低于30亿元，2027年不低于60亿元。这一激励计划的实施，旨在建立长效激励机制，吸引和留住优 秀人才，推动公司未来发展。 然而，尽管股权激励计划为公司未来发展设定了高目标，公司在实现这些目标的过程中仍面临诸多挑 战。特别是在全球经济增速放缓、市场需 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jingao Technology reported a significant decline in revenue and a net loss for 2024, primarily due to supply-demand imbalance and price drops across the solar industry [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 70.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.02% [1] - Net profit turned to a loss of 4.656 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 7.039 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - The gross margin for the solar module business was only 4.82% in 2024, with domestic market gross margin at -7.98% and European market gross margin at -3.51% [2] Group 2: Production and Capacity - In 2024, the company shipped 79.447 GW of battery modules, with overseas shipments accounting for approximately 49% [1] - The planned production capacity for 2024 was not fully achieved, with actual module capacity reaching 100 GW, while silicon wafer and battery capacities were only over 80% and 70% of module capacity, respectively [2] - The company did not disclose operational targets for 2025, which is unusual compared to previous years [2] Group 3: Industry Context and Challenges - The solar industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance due to the release of new capacities, leading to widespread losses across the supply chain [3] - The global solar industry policies significantly impact the development speed and quality of the sector, creating uncertainties in both domestic and international markets [3] - The industry is facing structural overcapacity, with domestic production capacities exceeding 1100 GW, far surpassing global installation growth [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The polysilicon spot market has seen limited transactions this week, with prices experiencing a downward trend. The average transaction price for N-type re-investment material is 40,300 yuan/ton, down 1.71% week-on-week; N-type granular silicon is at 38,000 yuan/ton, down 2.56%; and P-type polysilicon is at 33,000 yuan/ton, down 1.49% [1] - The market is currently in a stalemate, with buyers and sellers unable to reach a price consensus. Some silicon material companies are tentatively lowering prices for downstream buyers, who are rejecting orders due to unmet price expectations [1][2] Group 2: Production and Supply Dynamics - Crystal pulling manufacturers have approximately 1 to 1.5 months of silicon material inventory, leading to a strategy focused on inventory digestion and enhancing negotiation leverage. Smaller manufacturers may finalize a small number of orders by the end of April, while large manufacturers' negotiations will dictate bulk transactions [2] - In April, silicon material manufacturers have limited production increases, with some responding to production cuts, maintaining levels similar to March. The production situation in May is uncertain due to weak market conditions and accumulated inventory concerns [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Forecasts - The price of silicon wafers continues to decline, primarily due to a rapid drop in downstream component demand, leading to reduced battery production and weakened demand for silicon wafers. The market atmosphere is notably sluggish, with some wafer companies resorting to panic selling [3] - Despite the downward trend in silicon wafer prices, the supply in the industry has not shown significant changes. The outlook suggests that if terminal demand does not recover in the short term, silicon wafer prices will likely continue to decline [3] - In the battery segment, prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N battery cells have dropped to 0.285 yuan/W, 0.28 yuan/W, and 0.30 yuan/W respectively. The price dynamics are influenced by intense negotiations and attempts by manufacturers to stabilize prices above cost levels [4][5] Group 4: Component Pricing and Market Competition - Component prices are experiencing a rapid decline, with centralized project components priced between 0.67 yuan/W and 0.71 yuan/W, while new orders have dropped to 0.68 yuan/W, with some negotiations even at 0.65 yuan/W [5] - The current inventory levels for components are healthy, but demand will depend on the initiation of domestic centralized projects in the second half of the year and the stability of overseas demand [5]

周价格表 更新日期: 2025/4/23 | 多晶硅 (Per KG) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | N型复投料(RMB) | 44.000 | 38.000 | 40.000 | -2.44% | | N型致密料(RMB) | 41.000 | 36.000 | 38.000 | -5.00% | | N型颗粒硅(RMB) | 38.000 | 36.000 | 37.000 | -2.63% | | 非中国区多昌娃(USD) | 22.000 | 13.100 | 18.500 | -1.07% | | 硅片 (Per pc) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | N型183单晶硅片-183mm/130pm (RMB) | 1.150 | 1.080 | 1.100 | -10.57% | | N型210单晶硅片-210mm/130pm (RMB) | 1.500 | 1.400 | 1.450 | -3.33% | | N型210R单晶硅片-210*182mm/130µm (RMB) | 1.350 | 1. ...

涵盖蔚来、小鹏、理想、比亚迪、特斯拉、小米等 11 个核心汽车品牌月销量，同时还包括 蔚来、小鹏和理想的重点车型销量，多维度展现新能源汽车销售全景图。 ➡【中金汽车】核心新能源品牌月度销量速览 图：核心新能源品牌月度销量 数据来源:乘用车市场信息联席会，中金公司研究部 02 港股周度数据观察 全方位紧跟港股最新动向，解析市场表现的核心驱动逻辑，洞察资金流向、市场情绪与盈 利趋势变化。 ➡【中金策略】港股周度数据观察 图：MSCI中国指数近一年表现拆解 数据来源:Bloomberg，中金公司研究部 03 存量住房市场监测体系 我们基于市场销售数据，构建了一个多维的存量房市场监测体系，全面覆盖存量房市场的 价格、活跃度、景气度以及租赁的关键指标。 ➡【中金房地产】存量住房市场监测体系 图：中金同二手住宅成交价格指数环比涨跌情况 数据来源:搜房、58、贝壳等房产中介网站，中金公司研究部 04 光伏产业链价格数据库 中金点睛"精品数据上新"栏目将带您回顾近期上新的数据看板。 01 核心新能源品牌月度销量速览 法律声明 周度追踪光伏各环节价格走势、毛利与成本估算，精准把握光伏产业链运行情况。 ➡【中金风光公用环保】光伏 ...

导 语：2024年至今，钧达股份连续四个季度出现单季亏损。 从财务数据来看，公司的业绩呈现出一定的波动。其收入从 2022 年的人民币 11,085.7 百万元增长 至 2023 年的人民币 186.11 亿元，然而到 2024 年又下降至人民币 99.24 亿元。 净利润方面，2022 年为人民币 6. 17 亿元，2023 年增长至人民币 8.16 亿元，但 2024 年却产生净亏 损人民币 5.91 亿元。 这种业绩波动主要归因于光伏电池市场价格的波动，特别是 2023 年第四季度至 2024 年第四季度全 行业光伏电池价格的持续下跌，对公司的利润产生了较大的负面影响。 公司此次赴港 IPO 具有一定的投资价值。在行业层面，全球对可再生能源的需求持续增长，光伏产 业作为重要的新能源领域，市场前景广阔。 海南钧达新能源科技股份有限公司在港交所递交的招股书，联席保荐人为华泰金融控股（香港）有 限公司、招银国际融资有限公司及德意志证券亚洲有限公司。若成功上市，这将是公司发展历程中 的重要里程碑，为其在光伏领域的进一步拓展提供强大的资金支持。 海南钧达新能源主要专注于高效光伏电池的研发、生产和销售，处于光伏产业 ...

周价格表 | 多晶硅 (Per KG) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | N型复投料(RMB) | 45.000 | 39.000 | 41.000 | 0.00% | | N型致密料(RMB) | 42.000 | 37.000 | 40.000 | 0.00% | | N型颗粒硅(RMB) | 39.000 | 37.000 | 38.000 | 0.00% | | 非中国区多智娃(USD) | 22.000 | 13.100 | 18.700 | -1.58% | | 硅片 (Per pc) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | N型183单晶硅片-183mm/130pm (RMB) | 1.250 | 1.180 | 1.230 | -1.60% | | N型210单晶硅片-210mm/130pm (RMB) | 1.550 | 1.480 | 1.500 | -3.23% | | N型210R单晶硅片-210*182mm/130µm (RMB) | 1.500 | 1.350 | 1.430 | -4.67% ...

周价格表 | | | | | 更新日期: 2025/4/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多晶硅 (Per KG) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | N型复投料(RMB) | 45.000 | 39.000 | 41.000 | 0.00% | | N型致密料(RMB) | 42.000 | 37.000 | 40.000 | 0.00% | | N型颗粒硅(RMB) | 39.000 | 37.000 | 38.000 | 0.00% | | 非中国区多昌娃(USD) | 22.500 | 13.100 | 19.000 | 0.00% | | 硅片 (Per pc) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | M10 单晶硅片-182mm/150pm (RMB) | 1.150 | 1.050 | 1.100 | 0.00% | | M10 单晶硅片-182mm/150pm (USD) | 0.146 | 0.133 | 0.139 | 0.00% | | G12 单晶硅片-210mm/150pm (RMB) | 1.700 | 1.600 ...