欧洲各国政府正为与美国总统特朗普的高风险谈判做准备，这些谈判将把欧洲大陆的防务、经济和安全 置于严峻考验之中。 随着官员们努力在未来五周围绕乌克兰、跨大西洋贸易以及美国对北约的承诺进行关键谈判，以维持特 朗普的支持，建立"独立欧洲"的宏伟计划已被搁置。欧洲谈判代表越来越担心，特朗普将要求欧盟在一 个领域做出让步，以换取在另一个领域的支持，从而迫使欧盟牺牲其核心价值观或接受与华盛顿的彻底 决裂。 欧盟前首席外交官约瑟夫·博雷利（Josep Borrell）在去年11月卸任时表示："所有这些危机同时爆发，这 是一场完美风暴。他（特朗普）可能会试图挤压我们，并可能从这三个方向将我们逼入绝境。可能会告 诉我们：'如果你不给我一个好的贸易协议，那么我们将不支持乌克兰。'或者，'如果你逼我支持乌克 兰，那么我们将增加（我们要求你增加）你在北约的军事开支'。" 欧盟高级官员已讨论了这三个方面的最坏情况。其中包括美国完全暂停对乌克兰的支持，切断情报并阻 止欧洲国家提供美国购买的武器、一场对经济增长造成严重后果的全面贸易战、以及美国军队和军事能 力迅速撤出欧洲。 一位欧盟高级外交官表示，"我们认为（乌克兰、欧洲防务和贸易）是独 ...

Core Viewpoint - French President Macron calls for a new alliance between Asian countries and Europe to enhance trade, dialogue, and cooperation in defense and security, aiming to create a stable environment and uphold a rules-based international order [3][4] Group 1: Macron's Speech Highlights - Macron emphasizes the need for Europe and France to defend territorial integrity and sovereignty in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine issue, warning that failure to resolve these conflicts could damage their credibility in the Asia-Pacific region [4][5] - He identifies division as a major risk facing the international community, stating that countries forced to "choose sides" due to great power competition could undermine global order and international cooperation mechanisms established post-World War II [4][5] - Macron reiterates the importance of "strategic autonomy" for both Europe and Asia, advocating for a new positive alliance based on shared norms and principles to prevent countries from becoming collateral damage in superpower conflicts [5][6] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The concept of "providing a third way" is a recurring theme in Macron's visit, linking it to France's Indo-Pacific strategy, which aims to maintain an open environment and order in the region [6][7] - Macron asserts that France is a participant in the Indo-Pacific region and emphasizes the need for cooperation with countries like India and ASEAN, while also acknowledging the necessity of building new cooperative frameworks [6][7] - He stresses that the current divide between the U.S. and China represents a significant risk, advocating for a new alliance between Paris and Indo-Pacific partners to ensure that nations do not become victims of superpower choices [6][7]

近期，德国默茨政府在外交上很"活跃"， 称德国及其盟友向乌克兰提供的武器已不再限制射程，德国或将反击美国关税政策等等。怎么看待德国新政府外 交上的特点？这对当前地区热点会产生什么影响？ 德国试图重塑传统大西洋盟友关系格局 中国国际问题研究院全球治理与国际组织研究所所长 金玲：默茨政府上台后，在一系列重大外交问题上展现出较为强势的立场。在我看来，这是新政府希 望对外彰显领导力与行动力，推动欧洲实现更大战略自主的信号。由此不难看出，德国未来的外交有几个较为明确的方向。德国近期外交政策举措背后有多 重意图。首先，在重塑大西洋关系方面，德国与法国在战略自主观念上日益接近，寻求对美国更大的独立性。特朗普第二任期以来，在乌克兰问题、关税问 题等方面采取的一系列举措，重塑了德国人对美国的认知。即便默茨是传统大西洋主义者，但他也明确表示，面对美国总统特朗普的"美国优先"单边主义， 德国与欧盟战后的"双人舞"必须结束，呼吁从华盛顿独立。这意味着，无论是在安全还是经贸领域，德国都在试图重新定义传统的大西洋关系。 德国意在欧盟内部重新树立"领头羊"形象 德国战略政策调整一定程度上平衡美欧关系 责编：黄之安、侯兴川 中国国际问题研究 ...

Core Points - The German government aims to build the Bundeswehr into the strongest conventional army in Europe while revitalizing the economy, which are seen as interconnected goals [3][4] - Chancellor Merz emphasizes the need for Germany to take on more responsibility in NATO and the EU, signaling a strong return of Germany in European security and defense [4][6] - The government plans to provide necessary financial resources to the Bundeswehr, marking a significant shift in Germany's defense policy [4][7] Defense Strategy - The new government has committed to a defense budget of approximately €150 billion over its term, focusing on modernizing military capabilities and infrastructure [8] - Germany is expected to adopt a "high-tech" military approach, enhancing defense mobilization, military industry, and equipment procurement [8] - The government has established a special defense fund of €100 billion to support military modernization efforts [7] Economic Context - Germany faces challenges such as outdated military equipment and organizational inefficiencies, complicating the rapid enhancement of military capabilities [9] - Economic pressures, including inflation and a potential recession, may hinder the government's ability to significantly increase defense spending [9] - The country is projected to experience a tax revenue shortfall of €81.2 billion from 2025 to 2029, with a deficit of over €33 billion anticipated in 2025 [9] Strategic Autonomy - The push for a stronger military presence reflects a broader strategic shift in Europe, as Germany seeks to enhance its role in European defense and security [6][9] - The EU's lack of a unified security decision-making mechanism poses challenges for Germany's defense ambitions [9] - Despite efforts to reduce dependence on the U.S., Germany remains constrained by its military and economic ties to the U.S. [9]

Domestic News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced stronger support for high-quality unprofitable technology companies to go public [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term on May 23 [1] - The Financial Regulatory Administration is set to approve the third batch of long-term investment reform pilot projects for insurance funds, with a scale of 60 billion yuan [1] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is enhancing cross-border financial services for technology companies and steadily advancing the Qualified Foreign Limited Partner (QFLP) pilot [1] - Xiaomi launched the flagship processor "Xuanjie O1," claiming it has first-tier performance, and officially released the YU7 model, positioned as a "luxury high-performance SUV," with the price yet to be announced [1] International News - Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization announced a visit to the U.S. for tariff negotiations from Friday to Sunday [2] - The U.S. government is considering the withdrawal of approximately 4,500 troops from South Korea [4] - Institutions reported that BYD's pure electric vehicle sales in Europe surpassed Tesla for the first time in April [4] - Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia stocks are set to be traded as tokens on the Kraken trading platform [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed an ambitious budget reform plan aimed at promoting fiscal integration within the EU, enhancing strategic autonomy, and creating a more flexible and efficient fiscal mechanism to address global geopolitical risks and high-tech competition [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for the Reform - The geopolitical crisis, particularly following the Ukraine conflict, has exposed the limitations of the EU in security and diplomacy, prompting a reevaluation of "strategic autonomy" [2]. - The EU is falling behind in key areas such as digitalization, artificial intelligence, and green energy, necessitating a more robust fiscal stimulus to invest in future industries [2]. - There is a lack of sufficient fiscal tools and limited financing options, as demonstrated by the successful introduction of a joint borrowing plan during the pandemic, which the Commission aims to institutionalize [2][3]. Group 2: Key Components of the Reform - Defense spending exemption: The proposal suggests exempting defense expenditures from the fiscal deficit calculations, allowing member states to significantly increase their defense budgets [3]. - Establishment of a European Competitiveness Fund: This fund aims to consolidate existing research and industry support tools to invest in strategic projects like chip manufacturing and clean energy [3]. - Reform of budget allocation methods: The plan proposes reducing traditional agricultural subsidies and structural funds, shifting to conditional direct payments to member states based on their performance in climate transition and fiscal reforms [3]. - Institutionalization of a joint borrowing mechanism: The proposal seeks to create a permanent EU joint debt issuance mechanism to ensure long-term strategic investment and crisis response capabilities [3]. Group 3: Internal Divisions and Challenges - There are significant divisions within the EU regarding the reform, with countries like France and Italy supporting it for strategic autonomy, while others, particularly the "frugal four" (Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden, and Austria), oppose expanded borrowing [4][5]. - Some Eastern European countries, while potentially benefiting from EU funds, resist conditional funding that may infringe on national sovereignty [5]. - The political landscape suggests that while the reform is likely to pass, it will require extensive negotiations and compromises, indicating a shift in the EU's institutional development and its future direction [5].

Group 1 - Europe is experiencing a crisis of identity, moving away from its previous labels of peace, prosperity, and multilateralism towards seeking greater strategic autonomy [3][8] - The recent U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy has disrupted global financial markets, yet the euro has appreciated against the dollar, prompting renewed calls for the euro's status as a reserve currency [3][7] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has indicated that enhancing the euro's status as a reserve currency could increase Europe's strategic autonomy, especially in light of U.S. foreign policy unpredictability [7][8] Group 2 - There is a potential for the eurozone to expand, with countries that have not yet adopted the euro, such as Sweden, Czech Republic, and Poland, recognizing the benefits of joining [4][8] - The ECB's previous reluctance to promote the euro as a reserve currency may change due to geopolitical factors, leading to increased intra-EU trade and a stronger euro [8][9] - The need for euro-denominated bonds is emphasized to finance Europe's transformation, showcasing the EU's ability to raise funds collectively rather than through individual member states [8][9] Group 3 - The global financial order is in need of reconstruction, with calls to reform institutions like the IMF and World Bank to better reflect the current economic landscape [10][11] - The rise of emerging economies, particularly China, has not been adequately represented in global financial institutions, leading to a perceived monopoly by Western nations [12][13] - A more multipolar world necessitates new rules for global finance and trade, with independent international institutions playing a crucial role in gathering key participants [13]

"中欧建交50周年论坛"日前在中欧国际工商学院上海校区举行。据悉，本次论坛回顾了中国和欧盟半个 世纪携手同行的合作历程，探讨了中欧如何在全球贸易、投资、创新、数字化转型和气候行动等关键领 域和方面展开合作，旨在更好地构建未来五十年的友好合作关系。 中欧国际工商学院特聘教授夏尔.米歇尔(Charles Michel)表示，当前世界正处于一个关键十字路口，面 临着贸易保护主义、大数据与人工智能带来的机遇与风险、国家主权与安全等诸多挑战。欧盟的战略自 主是唯一前进道路。同时，他对未来双方关系发展提出了两点建议：一是欧盟与中国的关系应当基于自 身特点来考量，不受其他第三方的影响；二是必须以负责任的态度，秉持尊重、透明和真诚的原则管控 双方的分歧与差异，以增进相互理解。 上海交通大学校长、中国科学院院士、中欧国际工商学院理事长丁奎岭表示，两个原子保持稳定关系的 核心有两点，第一是彼此的距离要短(键长短)，第二是要能互补共享(电子配对)，中欧的合作也是如 此。首先要常来常往，缩短人和人、国家和国家的物理距离和情感距离；第二要优势互补，成果共享， 深化在教育科技人才各要素间比较优势上的互惠供应模式。大家共同努力推动中欧关系 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around defense spending in Europe is intensifying, with many leaders claiming to have achieved NATO's target of 2% of GDP for defense spending, but this does not guarantee security without unified command, interoperability, and public support [1][4] Group 1: Current Defense Landscape - European military forces appear strong on the surface but may collapse under high-intensity conflict due to lack of preparedness and outdated infrastructure [1][2] - The reliance on the U.S. for comprehensive security, including airlift, intelligence, and nuclear deterrence, is becoming increasingly problematic as the U.S. shows reduced interest in European security [1][2] - The aging defense infrastructure, built during the Cold War, hampers rapid military deployment across Europe, with logistical challenges leading to significant delays in troop movements [1][2] Group 2: Challenges in Defense Coordination - Europe faces significant challenges in establishing its own intelligence and command systems, requiring substantial investment and long-term political commitment, which is currently lacking [2][4] - The fragmentation of military capabilities across European nations leads to inefficiencies, with numerous weapon systems complicating logistics and operational coordination [2][3] - Public support for defense is waning, with low willingness among citizens in countries like Spain, Germany, and Italy to fight in wartime, contrasting with Ukraine's strong national resolve [2][3] Group 3: National Defense Status - The UK has a reduced military size of approximately 72,000 personnel, the lowest in nearly two centuries, despite recent successful deployments [3] - France emphasizes strategic autonomy but still relies on U.S. intelligence support and faces leadership challenges within the EU [3] - Germany's military readiness is questionable, with key forces not expected to be fully operational until after 2027, and significant personnel shortages [3] - Poland is actively expanding its military budget to 4.7% of GDP and plans to increase troop numbers to 500,000, but faces integration challenges with diverse weapon systems [3] Group 4: Potential for Improvement - The core issue for Europe is not insufficient investment but ineffective investment, as existing forces lack the capability for rapid response and multinational cooperation [4] - Efforts are underway to upgrade critical military transport infrastructure, with over 500 key points being improved [5] - New defense cooperation frameworks between the UK and the EU aim to enhance joint deployments and mobilize approximately €150 billion in defense investments [5] - NATO and the EU are identifying critical capability gaps, indicating a potential strategic awakening, but deeper cultural, political, and financial consensus is needed for real change [5]

Group 1 - China has been Germany's largest trading partner for eight consecutive years since 2016, indicating strong bilateral trade relations [1][7] - The new German government, led by Merz, signifies a return to traditional policies, emphasizing the importance of maintaining economic ties with China [1][5] - A joint proposal from 36 German companies in China urges the new government to increase investments in China rather than reduce them, highlighting the need for a balanced approach to risk management [1][4] Group 2 - The complementary nature of the industrial structures between China and Germany remains strong, with certain sectors like aerospace and medical technology still competitive for Germany [2] - German companies view the Chinese market as crucial for their global competitiveness, with 92% of surveyed companies expressing a desire to remain in China [6] - The anticipated investment from German companies in China is projected to reach €5.7 billion in 2024, reflecting a 25% increase from the previous year [6] Group 3 - The new German government's coalition agreement emphasizes the necessity of cooperation with China while addressing the concept of "de-risking" [5] - There is a strong demand from the German business community for reduced bureaucratic barriers in bilateral investments, as previous restrictions on Chinese investments have been rolled back [4][5] - Germany's industrial policy is shifting focus towards future-oriented technologies, including AI and quantum computing, while still recognizing the importance of the Chinese market [8]