Core Insights - The real estate market requires renewed policy support to stabilize and recover [2][9] - In May, housing prices in 70 major cities showed a month-on-month decline, but the year-on-year decline is narrowing [2][4] - The State Council has indicated a stronger commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, signaling potential policy changes [9][10] Price Trends - In May, first-tier cities saw new residential prices decrease by 0.2% month-on-month, with Shanghai increasing by 0.7% while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines [3][4] - Year-on-year, Shanghai's new residential prices rose by 5.9%, attributed to the launch of high-end properties attracting wealthy buyers [3] - Second and third-tier cities also experienced price declines, with second-tier cities down 0.2% and third-tier cities down 0.3% month-on-month [4] Investment and Sales Data - Real estate development investment in the first five months of the year reached 36,234 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.7%, with residential investment down 10.0% [6] - New housing starts and completions are also declining, with new starts down 22.8% and completions down 17.3% [6] - New residential sales area decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with sales revenue down 3.8% [7] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is still in an adjustment phase, with confidence needing further restoration and supply-demand relationships requiring improvement [6][10] - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized a multi-faceted approach to stabilize expectations, activate demand, and optimize supply [9] - The stock market reacted positively to the government's signals, with significant increases in real estate stocks following the announcement [10]

新华财经北京6月17日电（记者安娜）70个大中城市房价同比降幅收窄，商品房库存减少，新开工面积 指标改善……国家统计局16日公布的多项5月份房地产市场经济指标出现积极变化。"从5月情况看，房 地产市场运行总体平稳。"国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖当日在国新办发布会上说。 房价是房地产市场运行的"晴雨表"。 国家统计局发布的数据显示，5月份，各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅继续收窄。其中，一线城市 新建商品住宅销售价格同比下降1.7%，降幅比上月收窄0.4个百分点，上海是一线城市中唯一同比上涨 的城市，涨幅达5.9%；二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比分别下降3.5%和4.9%，降幅分别收窄 0.4个和0.5个百分点。 二手房方面，5月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格同比下降2.7%，降幅比上月收窄0.5个百分点，上海同 比下降0.1%，降幅是一线城市中最小的；二、三线城市二手住宅销售价格同比分别下降6.1%和6.9%， 降幅分别收窄0.4和0.5个百分点。 从房价环比来看，据国家统计局城市司首席统计师王中华介绍，5月份，各线城市商品住宅销售价格均 有所下降。其中，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由上月持平转为下降0 ...

● 本报记者熊彦莎 国家统计局6月16日发布数据显示，2025年5月，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下 降，同比降幅继续收窄。 从市场交易看，在各项稳楼市政策作用下，房地产销售基本平稳。付凌晖表示，1-5月，新建商品房销 售面积和销售额同比分别下降2.9%和3.8%，与1-4月基本持平。部分一线、二线城市市场交易较为活 跃，商品房销售面积和销售额保持增长。 "总的看，促进房地产市场止跌回稳政策持续显效，5月房地产市场运行总体平稳。但也要看到，房地产 市场仍在调整过程中，市场信心还在修复，市场供求关系仍待改善，促进房地产市场止跌回稳还需要继 续努力。"付凌晖说。 付凌晖表示，要积极主动适应房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的现实，持续推动城市更新和危旧房改 造，加大"好房子"建设供应力度，促进刚性和改善性住房需求释放，积极构建房地产发展新模式，促进 房地产市场平稳健康发展。 国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖当日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，从5月情况 看，房地产市场运行总体平稳。今年以来，随着各项稳定房地产政策加快落实，房地产市场继续朝着止 跌回稳的方向迈进。 从市场价格看，5月，一、 ...

张大伟 制图 ◎记者 于祥明 国家统计局6月16日发布的最新数据显示，5月70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格均环比下 降，同比降幅继续收窄。其中，一、二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比降幅比上月分别收窄 0.4、0.4和0.5个百分点；二手住宅销售价格同比降幅分别收窄0.5、0.4和0.5个百分点。 多位业内专家向上海证券报记者表示，在一系列政策助力下，今年以来房地产市场延续修复态势，但房 地产止跌回稳态势仍需进一步巩固，相关优化政策有望进一步出台。 数据显示，5月，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比下降1.7%，降幅比上月收窄0.4个百分点。其中， 上海上涨5.9%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降4.3%、5.8%和2.6%。 与此同时，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由上月持平转为下降0.2%。其中，上海上涨0.7%，北 京、广州和深圳分别下降0.4%、0.8%和0.4%。二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由上月持平转为下 降0.2%；三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 "总的来看，促进房地产市场止跌回稳的政策持续显效，5月房地产市场运行总体平稳。但也要看到，房 ...

从房价涨幅居前的城市来看，杭州新房价格环比涨幅为0.8%，位居第一；上海涨幅为0.7%，位居第 二；南宁、乌鲁木齐涨幅均为0.4%，并列第三。二手房价环比上涨的城市有3个，无锡涨幅为0.2%，洛 阳和南充涨幅均为0.1%。 付凌晖表示，下阶段，要积极主动适应房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的现实，持续推动城市更新和 危旧房改造，加大"好房子"建设供应力度，促进刚性和改善性住房需求释放，积极构建房地产发展新模 式，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。 同比来看，5月份，一线城市新房价格同比下降1.7%，降幅比上月收窄0.4个百分点；二、三线城市同比 分别下降3.5%和4.9%，降幅分别收窄0.4个和0.5个百分点。二手房价同比来看，一线城市二手房价格同 比下降2.7%，降幅比上月收窄0.5个百分点；二、三线城市同比分别下降6.1%和6.9%，降幅分别收窄0.4 个和0.5个百分点。 中原地产首席分析师张大伟认为，今年年初在政策刺激影响下，楼市迎来短暂的"小阳春"，进入4—5 月，随着传统销售旺季热度逐渐褪去，政策的边际效应递减，整体市场房价再现下调现象，特别是二手 房市场"以价换量"仍主导市场，房价普遍下跌。6—8月份是 ...

市场供求关系仍待改善 同比降幅继续收窄 数据显示，5月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由4月份持平转为下降0.2%。其中，上海上涨0.7%，北京、广州和 深圳分别下降0.4%、0.8%和0.4%。二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由4月份持平转为下降0.2%。三线城市新建商品住宅销 售价格环比下降0.3%，降幅比4月份扩大0.1个百分点。 5月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.7%，降幅比4月份扩大0.5个百分点。其中北京、上海、广州和深圳分别下 降0.8%、0.7%、0.8%和0.5%。二线、三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比均下降0.5%，降幅均扩大0.1个百分点。 58安居客研究院院长张波在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，5月份房价虽然呈现出短暂的波折，但市场"止跌回稳"的 大趋势不变，随着政策效果的持续显现及大环境逐步改善，供需两侧信心会稳步得到恢复。预计下半年房地产市场成交量有望 逐渐回升，市场活跃度将有所提高。 张波分析称，新房市场亮点多，上海5月份的新房价格环比上涨0.7%，同比更是上涨5.9%，这得益于上海高端盘的集中入 市，吸引了大量高净值人群关注并带动市场热度提升，拉高了上海新房市场的整 ...

Summary of Real Estate Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate market has shown signs of weakness since May, with new construction, investment, and completion areas experiencing a year-on-year decline. However, key cities have seen a structural recovery in land acquisition amounts due to high premium land transactions in first-tier cities [1][3] - The sales area and amount of commercial housing have decreased year-on-year, but there has been slight improvement month-on-month. The price index for new homes and second-hand homes in 70 major cities has declined both year-on-year and month-on-month [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Data Trends**: - New construction area decreased by 19% year-on-year in May, while development investment fell by 12%. Cumulatively, from January to May, investment dropped by 11% [3] - The sales area and amount for commercial housing fell by 3% and 6% year-on-year, respectively, but showed slight month-on-month improvement [4] - The price index for new homes decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, and second-hand homes fell by 6.3% [4] - **High-frequency Data Insights**: - In June, the cumulative transaction area for new homes in 44 key cities dropped by 12% year-on-year, while second-hand homes fell by 4% [5] - Forward-looking indicators show market weakness, with a 5% decrease in transaction counts and an 11% drop in viewings for second-hand homes [5] - **Policy Implications**: - The government has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with recent meetings indicating potential policy adjustments to support direct payments to real estate companies [6][7] - Future policies may focus on stabilizing market fundamentals while transitioning to new models, with a need for ongoing confidence restoration and supply-demand relationship improvement [8] - **Institutional Development**: - The industry will focus on foundational institutional construction, including land acquisition, sales systems, and housing pension systems. Current attention is on the existing housing sales system [9] - Urban renewal and village reconstruction will be utilized to optimize supply, addressing the issue of insufficient quality housing despite ample supply [9] - **Inventory Management**: - A nationwide investigation into real estate inventory is necessary to support land and housing storage, enhancing policy effectiveness and potentially relaxing administrative restrictions in key cities [10][11] - **Market Expectations**: - Stabilizing expectations is crucial for both the real estate and stock markets, as positive future expectations drive demand for both sectors [12] Investment Opportunities - **Stock Recommendations**: - Focus on high-quality urban companies with good credit and excellent products, particularly in Shanghai. Recommended A-shares include Chengdu Investment Holdings, Chengjian Development, and others [14] - Hong Kong stocks are seen as having investment opportunities due to potential RMB appreciation and favorable market conditions [15] - **Hong Kong Market Outlook**: - The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to benefit from lower mortgage rates, population return, and supportive government policies, creating opportunities for companies with substantial property resources [16] - **Investment Strategy for Developers and Property Companies**: - Both developers and property companies are viewed as having allocation value, especially high-dividend companies like China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, Greentown Service, and others [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The real estate market continues to show weakness in sales volume, price, and financing indicators, following the downward trend observed in April [4][68] - The State Council's meeting on June 13 emphasized the need for stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for upcoming policies to support inventory reduction and market recovery [4][68] - Specific stock recommendations include China Resources Land, China Resources Mixc Life, China Jinmao, Beike-W, and I Love My Home [4][68] Summary by Sections Sales and Investment Data - From January to May 2025, national real estate development investment reached 36,234 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. The area of new construction was 23,184 million square meters, down 22.8%, and the area of completed buildings was 18,385 million square meters, down 17.3% [3][36] - New residential sales area was 35,315 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, while sales revenue was 34,091 billion yuan, down 3.8% [3][36] Price Trends - The average selling price of new residential properties in the first five months of 2025 was 9,653 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. In May, the average price was 10,004 yuan per square meter, down 2.8% year-on-year [20] - In May 2025, the prices of new homes in 70 cities fell by 4.1% year-on-year, while second-hand home prices decreased by 6.3% year-on-year [20] Financing and Development - The financing for real estate companies was 40,232 billion yuan from January to May 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%. The monthly financing in May was 7,636 billion yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year [36] - The new construction area in May was 5,348 million square meters, down 19.3% year-on-year, while the completed area was 2,737 million square meters, down 19.5% year-on-year [58]

21世纪经济报道记者李莎 北京报道 6月16日，国家统计局发布5月房地产数据。 数据显示，5月70个大中城市房价同比降幅收窄，环比看价格仍有待回稳。相较1—4月，1—5月新建商品房销售面积和销售额同 比分别下降2.9%和3.8%，房地产销售基本平稳。另外，5月末，商品房待售面积比4月末减少715万平方米，商品房库存持续减 少。 "总的看，促进房地产市场止跌回稳政策持续显效，5月份房地产市场运行总体平稳。"在6月16日国新办召开的新闻发布会上， 国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，今年以来，随着各项稳定房地产政策加快落实，房地产市场继 续朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。 同时，付凌晖表示，房地产市场仍在调整过程中，市场信心还在修复，市场供求关系仍待改善，促进房地产止跌回稳还需要继 续努力。下阶段，要认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，积极主动适应房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的现实，持续推 动城市更新和危旧房改造，加大"好房子"建设供应力度，促进刚性和改善性住房需求释放，积极构建房地产发展新模式，促进 房地产市场平稳健康发展。 房价同比降幅收窄 但也要看到，无锡、洛阳和南充二手房价格存在环比微涨的情 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant movements in real estate stocks on June 16, with Jin Hui Holdings (09993.HK) surging nearly 90% before closing up 35.77%, while other companies like Agile Group (03383.HK) and Shimao Group (00813.HK) also experienced gains [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the real estate market is stabilizing, with a narrowing decline in housing prices across 70 major cities, and a continuous decrease in inventory [2][3] - From January to May, new residential sales area and sales revenue fell by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, with some first- and second-tier cities showing active market transactions [2] Group 2 - The government emphasized the need for ongoing efforts to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on long-term strategies and the establishment of foundational systems [4] - Recent meetings highlighted the importance of optimizing existing policies and enhancing the effectiveness of policy implementation to stabilize expectations and activate demand [5] - Analysts from Guosheng Securities maintain a positive outlook on the real estate sector, citing the necessity of policy support and the potential for improved competition among leading companies [6] Group 3 - The real estate market is expected to see continued policy-driven recovery, with a focus on key cities and the potential for increased demand due to lower mortgage rates [7] - The overall sentiment in the market suggests that the stabilization of the real estate sector will be a central theme throughout the year, with urban village renovations and land acquisition expected to accelerate [7]