本周，A股市场先涨后震荡回调，市场量能也在萎缩，就在市场担忧大盘可能二次探底的时候，周 五市场大幅上扬，消除了二次探底的担忧。全周，除科创50指数收跌之外，其余宽基指数的周度表现均 收涨。 那么，这是否意味着自周二开始的短期回调已经结束了？后市机会有哪些？今天，达哥和牛博士就 大家关心的问题进行讨论。 牛博士：达哥，你好，又到我们周末聊行情的时间。本周行情比较平淡，操作难度较大，周五大盘 大幅上扬消除了二次探底的担忧。对于后市行情，你怎么看？周五收盘至今传来了一些重要消息，对于 市场影响几何？ 道达：周五收盘后至今，传来了多个利好，为市场中长期向好发展又打下了基础。 一是，据多家媒体报道，中国证券投资基金业协会修订形成了《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引 （征求意见稿）》，该指引已下发至部分基金公司。 从指引来看，绩效薪酬的递延支付不少于三年，递延的比例不少于40%。此外，高级管理人员、主 要业务部门负责人应当将不少于当年全部绩效薪酬的30%购买本公司管理的公募基金，其中购买权益类 基金不得低于60%。基金经理绩效薪酬的40%要用来购买本人管理的基金。 这意味着，基金经理"躺着"赚管理费的时代结束了。基金经理只有 ...

Core Viewpoint - A500ETF Southern (159352) is experiencing significant market activity and growth, driven by favorable economic policies and investor sentiment, indicating a potential bullish trend in the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 8, A500ETF Southern (159352) saw an intraday increase of over 1%, currently up 0.91%, marking a potential three-day rally with a turnover rate of 27.21% and a transaction volume of 5.97 billion [1]. - The underlying index, the CSI A500 Index (000510), also rose by 0.91%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Tianfu Communication (300394) up 20.00% and Maiwei Co. (300751) up 18.44% [1]. - Over the past three months, A500ETF Southern (159352) has experienced a scale increase of 3.93 billion, with a net inflow of 739 million over the last three days [1]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 8, emphasizing the need for stable economic growth and the implementation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies for 2026 [1][2]. - The market is expected to benefit from easing geopolitical risks and renewed expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may trigger a pre-spring rally in the A-share market [2]. Group 3: Index Characteristics - The CSI A500 Index is designed to cover high-quality large and mid-cap A-share companies, focusing on emerging manufacturing and consumption upgrade sectors, and is recognized as a "barometer of China's new productivity" [2]. - The index employs a unique compilation logic that prioritizes industry leaders and excludes negative ESG factors, covering approximately 90 sub-industries and including major companies with market caps in the hundreds of billions [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 Index include Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, and China Ping An, among others, reflecting a balanced distribution across key sectors [2]. Group 4: Investment Features - A500ETF Southern (159352) offers the lowest fee structure in the industry with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, providing investors with a high-precision, low-cost investment channel [3]. - The fund's high liquidity meets trading demands, while its associated funds facilitate convenient regular investments, positioning it as a versatile investment tool for the new era [3].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a continuous volume contraction rebound, with improved funding conditions due to the warming expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and enhanced effectiveness of domestic fundamental pricing [1] - Recent improvements in the TMT and upstream resource sectors have been notable, with a focus on AI chains, pricing chains, capital goods, consumer goods, and infrastructure chains [1] - The upcoming "spring restlessness" in mid to late December may lead to an early start, balancing growth and cyclical investments, with a mid-term view favoring large financials and certain high-value consumer stocks as core choices for asset revaluation in China [1] Group 2 - The market is experiencing a rotation of volatility and structural opportunities, with traditional manufacturing and resource sectors being undervalued in terms of global pricing power [3] - Since the "9.24 market" last year, the overall market has seen a systematic increase in financing, with a net increase of 1.11 trillion yuan, significantly surpassing the total issuance of public and private bullish products since October of the previous year [3] - Major broad-based indices and thriving sectors have achieved most of their gains during these two market waves, while other periods have been relatively flat, with effective gains seen in quant-driven micro-accounts, insurance-driven banks, and price-driven non-ferrous metals [3] Group 3 - The market remains in an upward trend supported by funding and policy, with expectations for the A-share market to continue its bull run next year, supported by valuation and profit stabilization [4] - Easing geopolitical risks and renewed expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are likely to bring a pre-spring restlessness rally to the A-share market, with upcoming U.S.-China policy expectations being a key factor [4] - The AI sector is expected to continue its momentum under the 2026 U.S.-China interest rate cycle and strengthening AI trends, with a focus on "scarcity" in energy and power, as well as dual development in AI applications and ecosystem construction [4]

Group 1 - A total of 11 regions in China have disclosed the use of special bond funds for government investment funds, with a total scale exceeding 80 billion yuan this year [1] - Experts believe that investing special bond funds into government investment funds reflects the optimization of medium-term fiscal planning, supporting major development strategies and fostering new economic growth drivers [1] Group 2 - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security have released new drug directories, adding 114 new drugs, including 50 innovative drugs, to enhance drug accessibility [2] - The new commercial health insurance directory includes 19 innovative drugs, covering treatments for various diseases, and will be implemented nationwide starting January 1, 2026 [2] Group 3 - The primary market is showing signs of recovery, with hard technology becoming a consensus direction among various investment institutions, indicating it as a hot investment area for the future [3] Group 4 - A-share major indices have mostly risen due to improved market sentiment and risk appetite, with the ChiNext Index rising by 1.86% over the past week [4] - Analysts expect a "spring rally" in 2026 as new favorable factors emerge, following the digestion of high valuations in previously high-performing stocks [4] Group 5 - The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission outlined the development direction for the securities industry over the next five years, emphasizing the need to strengthen four mission responsibilities and improve five key areas [5] - The securities industry is seen as a key service provider for direct financing and a crucial player in capital market management [5] Group 6 - China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 33,464 billion USD at the end of November, marking a 30 billion USD increase from October, maintaining above 33,000 billion USD for four consecutive months [6] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, indicating a steady diversification of international reserve assets amid external uncertainties [6] Group 7 - The bond market is facing challenges, with a significant decline in bond funds, including a specific fund dropping over 7% in a week, raising concerns about potential defaults [8] - Approximately 70% of bond funds have experienced a general decline over the past month due to liquidity expectations [8] Group 8 - A new performance assessment guideline for fund management companies emphasizes long-term investment performance, linking compensation to fund investment returns [9] - The guideline requires that performance indicators account for at least 80% of the assessment weight for senior executives and fund managers [9] Group 9 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to ease capital space and leverage restrictions for high-quality securities institutions, promoting innovation in the securities industry [10] - The regulatory body aims to implement differentiated supervision for small and foreign securities firms while strictly regulating problematic firms [10] Group 10 - The copper futures price in Shanghai has reached a record high, with a year-to-date increase of 31%, and the total capital in copper futures has increased by 28.4 billion yuan [11] - Market participants are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy despite the overall upward trend in copper prices [11] Group 11 - Recent regulatory changes have lowered risk factors for insurance companies, potentially releasing 108.6 billion yuan for investment in the stock market, particularly in the CSI 300 index [12] - This adjustment is expected to enhance the solvency of insurance companies and guide investment targets [12] Group 12 - The performance of listed securities firms has improved significantly, with a 62.48% year-on-year increase in net profit for 43 A-share listed securities firms in the first three quarters [13] - There has been a surge in institutional interest in securities firms, with 28 firms undergoing institutional research in the fourth quarter [13]

Core Viewpoint - Recent regulatory measures have been introduced to attract long-term incremental capital into the market, boosting market confidence and leading to a rise in major stock indices [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The Financial Regulatory Authority has lowered the risk factor for insurance companies holding long-term stocks, reducing the risk factor for stocks held over three years in the CSI 300 index from 0.3 to 0.27 [1] - This adjustment is estimated to release approximately 20 billion in minimum capital for insurance funds, potentially bringing in an additional 76.4 billion to 150 billion in market funds if fully allocated to stock investments [1] Group 2: Market Performance - On December 8, the Shanghai Composite Index opened high and rose, with the CSI 300 index increasing by nearly 1%, and the non-bank financial sector leading the gains [1] - The securities sector saw significant movements, with Ruida Futures hitting a consecutive limit-up and Industrial Securities reaching the daily limit, while the ETF for securities surged over 3% [1] Group 3: Brokerages and Leverage - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to moderately optimize risk control indicators for quality brokerages, which will enhance capital space and leverage limits, improving capital utilization efficiency and long-term profitability [1] - Given that the leverage ratio of Chinese brokerages is significantly lower than that of domestic and international financial peers, there is a focus on the potential revaluation of brokerage sector values [1] Group 4: Investment Environment - The current low interest rate environment and the level of securitization indicate that the valuation of the CSI 300 index remains within a reasonable range [1] - The lowest fee product tracking the CSI 300 index is the Huaxia CSI 300 ETF (510330.SH), with a management fee of only 0.15% per year, providing a low-cost investment tool for investors [1] - Several institutions, including Xinda Securities and Huatai Securities, are optimistic about an early "spring rally," suggesting that December may serve as a window for positioning for the upcoming year-end market [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rebound of stock index futures continues, and the real breakthrough depends on policy signals. The market is affected by the capital supply - demand logic before the end of the year, and the market's expectation of the spring rally is rising. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate decision will also affect the market [8][9]. - For ethylene glycol, the trend is weak, and the 5 - 9 month spread should be inversely arbitraged at high levels. It is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the next 2 - 3 months [11][79]. - For offset printing paper, after the long - position stop - profit, the market is weak. Although the sharp decline gives the cost - effectiveness of long - position, there is a lack of bullish drivers in the short term [12][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures - **Core View**: Short - term rebound continues, and the breakthrough depends on policy signals. Affected by year - end capital supply - demand logic, and the expectation of spring rally is rising. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate decision is also influential [8][9]. - **Analysis**: The market is in a volatile state recently, with no unexpected bullish or bearish factors. The reduction of risk factors for insurance companies' related businesses and the relaxation of brokers' capital space and leverage limits are beneficial to the financial sector. The market is looking forward to the "15th Five - Year Plan" policy, and the Fed's interest - rate decision will also affect the market direction [8][9]. 2. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Core View**: The trend is weak, and the 5 - 9 month spread should be inversely arbitraged at high levels. It is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the next 2 - 3 months [11][79]. - **Analysis**: Although the weekly device changes are small, the price hits a new low, reflecting the market's expectation of significant inventory accumulation. New devices will be put into production, and the polyester device's operating rate will decline in February [11][79]. 3. Offset Printing Paper - **Core View**: After the long - position stop - profit, the market is weak. Although the sharp decline gives the cost - effectiveness of long - position, there is a lack of bullish drivers in the short term [12][13]. - **Analysis**: The sharp decline of the market is mainly driven by capital behavior. Fundamentally, there are three bearish factors: potential resumption of production by Zhanjiang Chenming, expected decline in paper prices after January, and the drag of pulp prices on paper prices [12][13]. 4. Other Commodities - **Gold**: The expectation of interest - rate cuts rebounds [17]. - **Silver**: It oscillates and declines [17]. - **Copper**: High risk sentiment supports the price [17]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [17]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price [17]. - **Tin**: Supply is disturbed again [17]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity moves up [17]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be under pressure [17]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: There is insufficient upward momentum [17]. - **Platinum**: It continues to oscillate [17]. - **Palladium**: It fluctuates in a narrow range [17]. - **Nickel**: The structural surplus changes, but the game contradiction remains unchanged [17]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand continue to be weak, and the cost - support logic is enhanced [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It oscillates weakly, and attention should be paid to the fermentation of the Nigerian mine - shutdown event [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of the Xinjiang environmental - protection event [17]. - **Polysilicon**: It is the core target of anti - involution, and the low - buying idea is the main strategy [17]. - **Iron Ore**: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [17]. - **Rebar**: The market has a long - short game and wide - range oscillation [17]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market has a long - short game and wide - range oscillation [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Affected by the factory's resumption sentiment, it oscillates widely [17]. - **Silicomanganese**: The market has a long - short sentiment game and wide - range oscillation [17]. - **Coke**: It oscillates widely [17]. - **Coking Coal**: It oscillates widely [17]. - **Log**: It oscillates at a low level [17]. - **Para - Xylene**: Supported by cost, it is in a high - level oscillation market [17]. - **PTA**: It is in a unilateral high - level oscillation market [17]. - **Rubber**: It oscillates [17]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillates and declines [17]. - **Asphalt**: With the rebound of oil prices, it oscillates in a narrow range [17]. - **LLDPE**: The basis weakens, and the upstream selling pressure continues to be released [17]. - **PP**: The medium - term trend still has pressure [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: The trend still has pressure [17]. - **Pulp**: It oscillates [17]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [17]. - **Methanol**: It runs under pressure [17]. - **Urea**: It oscillates and declines [17]. - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little [17]. - **LPG**: The short - term demand is strong, but the medium - and long - term is still under pressure [17]. - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of supply increase, and the upward driving force is limited [17]. - **PVC**: It oscillates at a low level [17]. - **Fuel Oil**: It oscillates in a narrow range and may temporarily get rid of the weak state [17]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It rebounds at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [17]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is in an oscillation market [17]. - **Short - Fiber**: There is pressure in the medium term, and the processing fee should be narrowed at high levels [17]. - **Bottle Chip**: There is pressure in the medium term, and the processing fee should be narrowed at high levels [17]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates mainly in the short term [17]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the inflection point to be confirmed and operate in the range temporarily [17]. - **Soybean Oil**: Driven insufficiently by US soybeans, it oscillates mainly [17]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans decline, and Dalian soybean meal may follow and oscillate weakly [17]. - **Soybean**: The market oscillates [17]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot [17]. - **Sugar**: It runs weakly [17]. - **Cotton**: The upward trend slows down, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [17]. - **Egg**: The spot oscillates [17]. - **Live Pig**: The weakness continues, and the basis logic returns [17]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the oil mill's purchase [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that institutions are optimistic about an early "spring rally" in the market, with growth and cyclical sectors being high-probability investment styles [1] - Huaxi Securities notes that the recent decrease in A-share trading volume and low implied volatility in options indicate that the market is awaiting new guiding themes, with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference potentially serving as a key policy window for the year-end rally [1] - Huatai Securities highlights that improved liquidity conditions, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and enhanced domestic fundamental pricing, could support the market, with a narrowing outflow of foreign capital and a recovery in ETF issuance and subscriptions [1] Group 2 - Guolian Minsheng Securities reports that major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alibaba have shown over 20% growth in cloud revenue in their Q3 earnings, indicating a positive outlook for AI-related sectors, which still have a safety margin in market performance [2] - Huaxia Fund's quantitative investment department sees opportunities for left-side positioning in Hong Kong tech stocks, noting that the Hang Seng Tech Index typically performs well in the first quarter [2] - The valuation of the Hong Kong TMT sector is significantly lower compared to A-shares, with a current PE ratio of 26.2, which is at the 40th percentile of the past decade, suggesting potential for long-term value re-evaluation [2] Group 3 - Relevant ETFs include the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF, both of which are heavily weighted in software services, professional retail, information technology equipment, and automotive sectors, accounting for about 70% of their compositions [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF has a higher concentration in biotechnology compared to the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF, which has more allocation in semiconductors, media, and entertainment [3] - The individual stock weight limit for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF is 15%, with the top ten constituents making up 80%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF has a limit of 8% and the top ten stocks account for 70% [3]

专题：四大证券报精华 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 12月8日（星期一），今日报刊头条主要内容精华如下： 中国证券报 证监会：加快打造一流投行和投资机构 进一步优化风控指标 提升资本利用效率 中国证券业协会第八次会员大会12月6日在北京举行。就"加快打造一流投资银行和投资机构，更好助推 资本市场高质量发展"，中国证监会党委书记、主席吴清在致辞时提出五点希望：行业功能发挥要迈上 新台阶、专业服务能力要展现新提升、差异化特色化发展要做到新突破、加强合规管理和风险防控要取 得新成效、行业文化建设要焕发新气象。 11月末外储规模小幅上升 央行连续13个月增持黄金 国家外汇管理局12月7日发布数据显示，截至2025年11月末，中国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10月 末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。11月末，中国黄金储备为7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为中国央 行连续第13个月增持黄金。 本周有5只新股申购！周一有两大龙头：纳百川、优迅股份 根据目前的发行安排，本周有5只新股申购，包括2只主板新股、2只创业板新股、1只科创板新股。从日 程安排看，周一（12月8日） ...

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the expectation of a robust economic start in 2026 driven by proactive macro policies and structural reforms as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][5] - The appreciation of the RMB is anticipated to improve, nearing the "7" mark against the USD [1][19] Focused Commentary - Wu Qing highlights the importance of enhancing the inclusivity and adaptability of capital market systems during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on public fund reforms and aligning investor interests [3] - The article discusses the need for a binding mechanism for public funds to ensure investor profit and loss are core to assessments, promoting the development of equity funds and index investments [3] Equity Market - CITIC Securities predicts a more proactive policy direction in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, with a focus on consumption expansion, technological innovation, and real estate risk mitigation [5] - Huaxia Fund suggests that the "spring rally" may start earlier due to key meetings, improved macro liquidity, and easing of funding pressures, recommending a focus on AI, domestic demand recovery, and resource sectors [6] -招商证券 notes that December's market will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's meetings and domestic conferences, with a preference for large-cap stocks and blue-chip dividends [7] Industry Research - Galaxy Securities indicates that the power industry will see opportunities for capacity upgrades during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on stable profitability in thermal power and growth in nuclear power [12] - Harvest Fund expresses optimism for the energy storage sector, highlighting its transition to a growth phase driven by policy and technological advancements [13] - CITIC Construction Investment Securities sees significant growth potential in the low-altitude economy, predicting a market size exceeding one trillion by 2030 [14] Macro and Fixed Income - Huatai Securities anticipates a gradual appreciation of the RMB, with a forecast of 6.82 against the USD by the end of 2026, driven by strong export growth and seasonal currency settlement peaks [19] - Bosera Fund notes a cautious sentiment in the bond market, with a need for clearer signals of policy easing to boost demand [20] - Guotai Fund believes that the bond market may see a recovery opportunity following recent volatility, suggesting it could be a good time for long-term positioning [21] Asset Allocation - CICC recommends maintaining a "barbell" strategy in asset allocation, combining dividend stocks with technology investments, while adjusting weights based on market conditions [23]

◎记者 汪友若 信达证券表示，9月以来市场缩量的内在原因是消化高换手率和部分板块交易拥挤，目前这两个因素均 有所缓和。当前时点投资者可以保持乐观。一方面，一轮上涨行情中低成交量不是利空信号，从历史经 验来看，成交量低点往往是上涨趋势中较好的买入时点。另一方面，历史上跨年行情启动之前，市场大 多会先有一定的调整，本质上是交易性资金为博弈跨年行情而腾挪安全边际。2025年12月或成为布局本 轮行情的窗口期。 在广发证券看来，2026年的"春季躁动"行情大概率不会缺席。截至11月下旬，本轮行情中产业主线的调 整时间、调整空间都已较为充分。游戏板块、恒生科技指数的调整时间和空间均已超过历史均值； PCB、科创芯片、消费电子、创新药、机器人等相关概念的调整时间足够，调整空间超过15%。上述板 块有望迎来止跌反弹。展望2026年，上市公司盈利边际改善、内部政策基调延续积极、市场流动性适度 宽裕、外部扰动因素逐步缓和，在这一背景下，"春季躁动"行情值得期待。 具体配置上，东吴证券坚定看好科技成长的结构性机会。该机构表示，"十五五"规划建议中对于科技及 产业发展的战略定调，将进一步强化成长股的逻辑叙事。海外流动性层面，美联储 ...