证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 04 月 29 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250429 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要宽基指数涨跌各半。截止收盘，沪指跌 0.05%， 收报 3286.65 点；深证成指跌 0.05%，收报 9849.80 点；创业板指跌 0.13%， 收报 1931.94 点；科创 50 涨 0.10%，收报 1003.87 点。总体上全天个股涨多 跌少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 3556 只个股上涨，1670 只个股下跌，184 只个 股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 10221 亿元，较上个交易日缩量约 342 亿 元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨跌各半，美容护理、机械设备、传媒、 轻工制造和基础化工行业领涨，涨幅分别为 2.60%、1.44%、1.27%、1.04%和 0.87%，公用事业、综合、石油石化、煤炭和社会服务行业领跌，跌幅分别为 1.78%、0.97%、0.55%、0.51%和 0.47%。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 200 million yuan, down 76.6% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 650 million yuan, an increase of 42.9% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 20 million yuan, a decrease of 58.5% year-on-year [1] - The quarterly breakdown for 2024 shows operating revenues of 450 million yuan (Q1), 750 million yuan (Q2), 820 million yuan (Q3), and 630 million yuan (Q4), with corresponding net profits of 50 million yuan, 110 million yuan, 190 million yuan, and a loss of 150 million yuan [1] Group 2: Vaccine Production and Pipeline - The company experienced a mixed performance in vaccine batch approvals in 2024, with significant increases in several products, including a 3262.5% rise in human diploid rabies vaccine approvals, and a 49.9% increase in 13-valent pneumonia vaccine approvals [2] - The company has multiple products in the research pipeline, with progress reported on several vaccines, including the Sabin strain inactivated polio vaccine and the quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine [2] - A collaboration agreement with AstraZeneca has been signed to establish a joint venture for the development of innovative vaccines [2] Group 3: Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the company are projected to be 0.34 yuan in 2025, 0.43 yuan in 2026, and 0.52 yuan in 2027 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure due to intensified industry competition and declining product prices, but it maintains a strong focus on innovation and has a solid pipeline of new products, leading to a "buy" rating. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue is projected to be 1.255 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.45%, with a net profit of 109 million yuan, down 61.58% due to increased competition and reduced margins [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 352 million yuan, an increase of 1.06%, while net profit is projected at 76 million yuan, down 27.57% [1] - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 251 million, 348 million, and 448 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.22, 0.31, and 0.40 yuan [1] Group 2: Market Position and Product Development - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 are 53.86% and 8.30%, respectively, showing declines of 5.33 percentage points and 9.04 percentage points [2] - The company maintains a strong market share in key products, with a 23% market share in pig circovirus vaccines and a 40% market share in brucellosis vaccines [2] - Several major products are set to launch in 2024, expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2025, including over 30 million yuan from the ruminant mycoplasma vaccine and over 10 million yuan from the cat trivalent vaccine [2] Group 3: Research and Development - In 2024, the company invested 179 million yuan in R&D, accounting for 14.25% of its revenue [3] - The company has secured production licenses for several important vaccines, including the Rev.1 strain of the Brucella vaccine, and is developing the world's first mRNA vaccine for feline infectious peritonitis [3] - The safety and efficacy of the African swine fever subunit vaccine meet the standards set by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the company is progressing with the review process [3]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of several vaccine companies in China is significantly declining in 2024 due to industry policy adjustments, decreased public willingness to vaccinate, and changing market demands, leading to a challenging environment for the industry [1] Financial Performance - The average revenue of vaccine companies in 2024 is 7.131 billion yuan, down 21.63% from 9.099 billion yuan in 2023, while the average net profit is 788 million yuan, a decrease of 35.60% from 1.222 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - Companies like Zhifei Biological, Wantai Biological, and Hualan Biological reported revenue declines exceeding 50%, while Watson Biological, Baike Biological, and Jindike saw declines of over 30% [1] - Kangxino's revenue increased by over 130% due to its quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine, benefiting from the resolution of global public health events [1] Price Competition Impact - The price war among vaccine products, particularly HPV, influenza, and pneumonia vaccines, has severely impacted net profits, with Wantai Biological, Kangtai Biological, Hualan Biological, and Zhifei Biological experiencing declines of 91.49%, 76.59%, 76.10%, and 74.99% respectively [2] - Wantai Biological's revenue for 2024 is 2.245 billion yuan, down 59.25%, and its net profit is 106 million yuan, down 91.49% [6] - Watson Biological's revenue is 2.821 billion yuan, a decline of 31.41%, with a net profit of 142 million yuan, down 66.10% [6] Market Dynamics - The domestic vaccine market is becoming increasingly competitive, with many companies focusing on traditional products and facing challenges from product homogeneity and market saturation [3] - The overall vaccination rate in China is low, with only about 3% for influenza vaccines, indicating significant growth potential in the market despite current pressures [7] R&D and Innovation - Companies are increasing R&D investments, with Zhifei Biological investing 1.391 billion yuan in 2024, and several companies allocating over 20% of their revenue to R&D [8] - New vaccine technologies, including mRNA and DNA vaccines, are emerging, which could lead to breakthroughs in disease prevention and treatment [9] International Expansion - Many vaccine companies are pursuing international markets, with Kangxino and Baike Biological successfully exporting products to various countries [10][11] - Watson Biological reported overseas revenue of 570 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 98% [11] - The global human vaccine market is projected to grow significantly, with emerging markets providing opportunities for Chinese vaccine companies due to their competitive pricing [12][13]

以下文章来源于MedTrend医趋势 ，作者更多精彩资讯 MedTrend医趋势 . 关注我们，带你洞见医疗的未来！MedTrend医趋势——专注于医疗医药、生命科学、医院领域，为您 提供及时、实用的热点资讯、市场概况、行业趋势等精彩内容，旨在建设全面、周到、专业的信息分享 与交流平台。 作者 | MedTrend医趋势 来源 | MedTrend医趋势 导语 ：没有任何一个赛道能逃过中国的内卷。 默沙东应该急了。 4月24日，默沙东公布2025 Q1业绩，总体营收小幅下锉，主要原因是两大支柱产品全球药王K药和 HPV疫苗佳达修（Gardasil/Gardasil 9）都未及销售预期。 另外两个数字则惨烈得多——佳达修Q1销售额仅为13.27亿美元，同比大幅下滑41%；其中，默沙 东中国区收入同比下滑62%至6.68亿美元，在默沙东全球的业务份额降至不足5%，跌幅远超公司平 均水平。 | | 2025 | | | 2024 | | | % Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 10 | 10 | 20 | 3Q | 40 ...

[Table_StockAndRank] 欧林生物(688319) 投资评级 上次评级 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 | [Table_Author] 唐爱金 医药行业首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500523080002 | | 邮 箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com | | 章钟涛 医药行业分析师 | | 执业编号：S1500524030003 | 邮 箱：zhangzhongtao@cindasc.com 相关研究： [Table_OtherReport] 独家品种金葡菌疫苗 II 期数据良好 业绩保持高速增长，净利率有所提升 业绩略超预期，破伤风疫苗放量 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [破伤风疫苗持续快速增长，金葡菌疫苗有望于 Table_Title] 25H1 完成 3 期临床入组 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 28 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 2024 ...

[Table_StockAndRank] 欧林生物(688319) 投资评级 上次评级 | [Table_Author] 唐爱金 医药行业首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500523080002 | | 邮 箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com | | 章钟涛 医药行业分析师 | | 执业编号：S1500524030003 | 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 邮 箱：zhangzhongtao@cindasc.com 相关研究： [Table_OtherReport] 独家品种金葡菌疫苗 II 期数据良好 业绩保持高速增长，净利率有所提升 业绩略超预期，破伤风疫苗放量 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [破伤风疫苗持续快速增长，金葡菌疫苗有望于 Table_Title] 25H1 完成 3 期临床入组 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 28 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 2024 ...

Group 1 - Vaccines are essential for protecting health throughout life, serving as a "health shield" in childhood and a "health guardian" in adulthood [1] - Vaccination in childhood establishes a strong immune foundation, helping to prevent infectious diseases [2] - Parents are advised to follow the national immunization schedule and consider additional vaccines to fill protection gaps [3] Group 2 - Adolescents and adults often overlook the need for vaccinations, making them a vulnerable group due to incomplete vaccination or waning immunity [5] - It is recommended to check for any missed vaccinations and consult healthcare providers for necessary immunizations [6][7] - Specific vaccines such as HPV for adolescents and shingles for those over 50 are advised [8][9] Group 3 - The elderly experience a decline in immune function, making vaccination crucial to reduce the risk of severe illness [12] - Annual flu vaccinations and pneumococcal vaccines are particularly important for older adults, especially those with chronic conditions [13] - Vaccination is a lifelong health commitment, emphasizing timely and need-based immunization to avoid gaps in protection [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of immunization services for all age groups to prevent vaccine-preventable diseases, particularly focusing on the rising incidence of whooping cough and RSV among infants and young children [1] Group 1: Importance of Whooping Cough and RSV - Whooping cough has seen a significant increase in incidence among newborns, with its morbidity and mortality rates much higher than those of typical infant illnesses [2] - RSV is the leading pathogen causing lower respiratory infections in infants under one year, leading to severe conditions like pneumonia and bronchiolitis [1][2] Group 2: Misconceptions about Infection Risks - The belief that infants are at lower risk of contracting whooping cough and RSV while staying at home is incorrect, as viruses can be brought home by adults who have been exposed outside [3] Group 3: Preventive Measures in Childcare Settings - In childcare institutions, it is recommended to temporarily keep children away during viral outbreaks and to maintain hygiene practices such as wearing masks and cleaning utensils [4] Group 4: New Preventive Strategies for RSV - The introduction of passive immunization through the injection of monoclonal antibodies for RSV is a significant advancement, with a new guideline for the prevention and treatment of RSV in children set to be released in 2024 [5] Group 5: Adjustments in Vaccination Programs - Starting January 1, 2025, China's national immunization program will adjust the vaccination schedule for whooping cough, ensuring timely vaccination and the introduction of a booster shot to enhance immunity [6] Group 6: Recommendations for Parents - Parents are advised to take precautions during high infection seasons, such as wearing masks in crowded places, frequent handwashing, and ensuring timely vaccinations for their children [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of vaccination in disease prevention and health protection, highlighting the distinction between government-provided vaccines and those that are voluntarily chosen by individuals [1][2]. Group 1: Vaccination Importance - Vaccination is described as the most economical and effective means of preventing and controlling diseases, extending from newborns to the elderly [1]. - The vaccination program includes 14 types of immunization vaccines provided for free by the government, aimed at preventing 15 infectious diseases [1]. Group 2: Types of Vaccines - Immunization vaccines are mandatory and free, while non-immunization vaccines are voluntary and self-paid, including flu, pneumonia, and cervical cancer vaccines [1]. - Individuals are encouraged to choose non-immunization vaccines based on personal needs and informed consent [1]. Group 3: Vaccine Safety and Management - The article outlines strict management protocols in China for vaccine development, production, distribution, and administration to ensure traceability [2]. - Common mild reactions to vaccines include fever and local swelling, which typically resolve within 1-3 days, while severe reactions are rare [2]. Group 4: Pre-vaccination Recommendations - It is advised that individuals understand vaccine information and disclose any medical history before vaccination, as well as maintain a healthy state prior to receiving vaccines [2]. - Some vaccination clinics offer services on weekends, allowing the public to schedule appointments via the "Guangxi CDC" WeChat account [2].