Market Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen below the 5400-point mark, indicating a significant pullback after previous gains in sectors like internet platforms and semiconductors[1] - The market is experiencing a "cold spring" with reduced trading volumes and profit-taking behavior observed across various sectors[1] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 3.80% year-on-year[5] - Retail sales have shown a modest increase of 0.90% year-on-year[5] - Exports have risen by 6.60% year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply growth stands at 8.54%[5] External Factors - Recent U.S. economic data, including non-farm payrolls and service sector PPI, exceeded expectations, leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve[1] - Domestic institutions are showing a strong demand for profit-taking to manage uncertainties post-holiday[1] Asset Allocation Trends - Southbound capital has shifted from high-growth tech stocks to high-dividend assets like telecommunications and banking[1] - The short-term support level for the market is projected to be between 5100-5250 points, coinciding with the 250-day moving average[1] Commodity and Currency Movements - The latest crude oil inventory is reported at 44,684 million tons, an increase of 44,935 million tons from the previous week[3] - The dollar long position has decreased to 16,610 contracts, down by 1,335 contracts[3]

Group 1 - The United Nations report calls for the least developed countries to improve productivity in the service sector, which is currently focused on low-productivity activities that do not generate widespread prosperity [1] - The Dallas Fed President Logan stated that the Federal Reserve's policy stance is at a neutral level, suggesting no need for further rate cuts if inflation decreases and the labor market remains stable [1] - The U.S. retail sales data for December 2025 showed unexpected stagnation, with a month-on-month growth of 0%, significantly below the expected 0.4% increase, indicating weak consumer performance among low-income groups [1] Group 2 - The Japanese government has decided to convene a special Diet session on the 18th, during which a prime ministerial election is expected to take place, with the ruling party holding a significant majority [2] - The European Parliament approved a political agreement on the European Climate Law amendment, which includes a binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels, aiming for climate neutrality by 2050 [2] Group 3 - The largest asset management firm in Europe, Amundi, announced plans to continue reducing its exposure to U.S. dollar assets while shifting focus towards European and emerging markets [3] Group 4 - U.S. major stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.1% at 50188.14 points, marking a new closing high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.33% and 0.59%, respectively [4] - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.62% at $5047.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.01% at $80.58 per ounce [4] Group 5 - U.S. oil futures fell by 0.25% to $64.20 per barrel, while Brent crude futures decreased by 0.04% to $69.01 per barrel [5] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield down 2.49 basis points to 3.454% and the 10-year yield down 5.94 basis points to 4.143% [5] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.01% to 96.86, while most non-U.S. currencies fell against the dollar [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's newly appointed voting officials express a preference to maintain current interest rates due to concerns about inflation, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [1][2] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack believes the current monetary policy is at an "appropriate level" and suggests patience in assessing economic data before making further changes [1] - Hammack highlights that inflation remains elevated, with risks of it staying around 3% this year, and emphasizes the need for clear evidence of sustained price declines before supporting further easing [1][2] Group 2 - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan shares concerns about persistent high inflation, suggesting that previous rate cuts may have inadvertently increased the risk of inflation rebounding [2][3] - Logan notes that the upcoming data will be crucial in determining if inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target and whether the labor market remains stable [2] - Both officials acknowledge the impact of tariffs on prices, with some companies passing increased costs to consumers, while also noting rising electricity and healthcare costs contributing to inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 3 - Hammack reports that the U.S. labor market appears stable, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, indicating a balance between job seekers and vacancies [3] - Logan observes that the downward risks in the labor market have diminished, with strong consumer spending and business investment expected to support employment [3] - Hammack anticipates that economic growth will accelerate this year due to previous rate cuts and fiscal support, potentially leading to improved employment and a gradual decrease in the unemployment rate [3]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The sentiment in the precious metals market has significantly improved, with strong upward trends in gold and silver prices observed during the trading session on February 10 [1][3] - Despite the absence of acute geopolitical tensions, several international issues remain in a state of simmering uncertainty, which could lead to a resurgence of safe-haven investments in precious metals [1][3] - The weak performance of the US dollar index and the steady rise in oil prices have provided upward support for both gold and silver from both cost and pricing perspectives [1][3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Recent volatility in the gold market has been interpreted by some officials as a correction following a typical "speculative eruption" [1][3] - The halt in gold and silver prices in late January was primarily attributed to excessive speculation, macroeconomic turmoil, and deep concerns regarding the independence of Federal Reserve policies [1][3] - According to the latest CFTC Fact Sheet, as of the week ending February 3, money fund managers significantly reduced their bullish bets on gold futures, with net long positions decreasing by 23% to 93,438 contracts, marking the lowest level in 15 weeks [4] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic agenda for the week is notably crowded, with the January non-farm payroll report and Consumer Price Index (CPI) set to be released, following delays due to previous government shutdowns [2][4] - Economists generally expect an increase of only 69,000 jobs in January, with the unemployment rate likely remaining at 4.4%, close to a four-year high [2][4] - Core CPI is anticipated to slow to the lowest year-on-year growth rate since early 2021, which will provide clear guidance for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path [2][4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Both gold and silver are currently at critical turning points in technical analysis [5] - For April gold futures, the next resistance level for bulls is at $5,250, while bears aim to suppress prices below the support level of $4,670 [5] - The initial resistance for gold is at last week's high of $5,113.90, with preliminary support at $4,988.60; for silver, the core target for bulls is to challenge last week's high of $92.015, and if it can hold above $85, its rebound momentum will further increase [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged, aligning with market expectations [1] - There is a notable divergence among Federal Open Market Committee members regarding the interest rate path for 2026, with 7 officials opposing rate cuts this year and 8 supporting at least two cuts, while the median forecast suggests only one cut [1] - The policy guidance from the Fed contrasts with futures market expectations, where traders are betting on two rate cuts in 2026, indicating a lack of consensus on the U.S. economic outlook and inflation trends [1] Group 2 - The White House has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh to succeed Powell as the next Fed Chair, aiming to balance central bank independence with White House policy demands [3] - The release of the January non-farm payroll report has been delayed due to a partial government shutdown, with market expectations of approximately 70,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate around 4.4% [3] - Bloomberg Economics warns that actual job data may be significantly weaker, potentially around 15,000, due to adjustments in statistical methods, which could lead to a reassessment of the Fed's policy timing [3] - Key variables affecting market expectations include labor market conditions, core inflation trends, and the communication style of the new chair [3]

美国总统特朗普和美联储现任主席鲍威尔之间的矛盾不断激化。据美国福克斯新闻网当地时间9日报 道，美国总统特朗普在接受该媒体采访时表示，在他的首个任期内，他在美联储主席人选决策上犯了错 误。 "我犯了个错误，他（鲍威尔）只是个备选，如果你要说的话。"特朗普说，"我犯了个错误，因为我的 财政部长非常非常想要他（任职），你知道，我对他的感觉不太好，但有时候会听别人的意见。那是个 错误，真是个大错误。" 美国福克 斯新闻网当地时间9日发布对特朗普（左）的采访视频。 图源：福克斯新闻网视频截图 特朗普随即谈到了他近日提名的美联储下任主席人选凯文·沃什，并称他认为沃什会很出色。 鲍威尔在特朗普首个总统任期内被提名为美联储主席，于2018年2月上任，后在拜登政府时期获得提名 连任，其任期将于今年5月15日结束。特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔，并威胁解除鲍威 尔职务。 1月9日，美国司法部向美联储送达传票，威胁对鲍威尔2025年6月在参议院银行委员会就美联储办公楼 翻新项目作证一事提起刑事诉讼。鲍威尔随后发表声明说，美国联邦检察官对其相关指控都是"借口"， 直言遭调查是因为美联储"没有遵从总统意愿"来设定利率。1月2 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Director of the U.S. National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, indicated that U.S. job growth is expected to gradually decline in the coming months due to slowing population growth, aligning with current high GDP growth [2] - The upcoming January employment report is anticipated to show an addition of 69,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.4% [2] - BMO Capital Markets' Chief U.S. Economist, Scott Anderson, warned that this year's annual benchmark revisions will have a greater impact than in previous years, as the labor market is on the "knife's edge" between net job growth and losses [2] Group 2: Labor Market Insights - The labor market last year was characterized by "low hiring, low layoffs," but the upcoming revisions may reveal a more severe slowdown in hiring, potentially altering the Federal Reserve's assessment of the employment situation [3] - Recent data supports the view that job growth may have been overestimated, with January layoffs reaching a record high for the same period since the Great Recession, and December job openings falling to the lowest level since 2020 [3] Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price opened at 1118.41 yuan per gram, down 6.18 yuan or 0.55% from the previous trading day, indicating a downward trend [1] - The gold price reached a high of 1127.77 yuan per gram and a low of 1108.13 yuan per gram during the trading session [1] - The bullish momentum in the gold market remains strong, with any pullback seen as a buying opportunity, as indicated by the price action and technical analysis [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious metals have a corrective rebound after previous sharp fluctuations, with gold returning near the key integer level and silver rising synchronously but with greater elasticity. The short - term trading logic shifts from a unilateral trend to a structural re - balance under high volatility, and the replenishment of allocation and hedging funds supports the price. Macroeconomic and policy uncertainties remain the core background [1] - Gold stabilizes and recovers in high - level oscillations, and the medium - term long - position logic is not broken. It is likely to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations before macro data forms a consistent direction, and is supported by official gold purchases and the US dollar credit logic in the medium term [2] - Silver's volatility significantly increases, following gold's recovery but at a faster pace. It is likely to oscillate strongly in the short term but needs to be wary of technical pull - backs after a rapid rise, and its medium - term trend depends on the overall precious metal allocation demand and macro - risk pricing [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **View**: Gold stabilizes and recovers in high - level oscillations, and the medium - term long - position logic is not broken [2] - **Logic**: After the previous de - leveraging and emotional stampede, gold gets allocation orders near the key price level. Official demand continues, and its high tolerance for price fluctuations compresses the downside space. Overseas, the market continues to trade around US employment and inflation data, and discussions on the Fed's policy path and independence repeatedly disturb real interest rates and the US dollar, which is beneficial to gold's defensive and allocation attributes [2] - **Outlook**: Before macro data forms a consistent direction, gold is more likely to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations. Attention should be paid to the support strength of allocation funds during the correction phase, and it is still supported by official gold purchases and the US dollar credit logic in the medium term [2] 3.2 Silver - **View**: Silver's volatility significantly increases, following gold's recovery but at a faster pace [3] - **Logic**: After a rapid decline, silver has a large rebound, showing stronger trading attributes. The inventory structure and fund behavior dominate the short - term trend. During the overall sentiment recovery phase of precious metals, silver has a leading elasticity but is less stable than gold. In a high - volatility environment, the inflow and outflow of funds have a more direct impact on the silver price [3] - **Outlook**: Silver is likely to oscillate strongly in the short term following gold, but it needs to be wary of technical pull - backs after a rapid rise. Its medium - term trend depends on the overall precious metal allocation demand and macro - risk pricing [3] 3.3 Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index is 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial products index is 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.35, up 0.58% [44] - **Precious Metals Index**: On February 9, 2026, the precious metals index is 4200.39, with a daily increase of 3.78%, a 5 - day increase of 0.91%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 9.84% [45]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the zinc price is under pressure due to a significant decline in the operating rates of downstream enterprises, despite some support from a weaker US dollar [1][2] - Overnight, the London zinc price experienced a slight decline of 0.03%, closing at $3382 per ton, with trading volume decreasing by 1925 contracts [1] - The domestic market is seeing a notable drop in operating rates ahead of the Spring Festival, with galvanizing enterprises down 7.49% to 38.6%, die-casting zinc alloy enterprises down 3.94% to 42.4%, and zinc oxide enterprises down 8.16% to 50.37% [2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment shows a 0.8% drop in the US dollar index, reaching a one-week low, which supports zinc prices by enhancing the attractiveness of risk assets to overseas buyers [1] - Upcoming US economic data releases, including retail sales and non-farm payroll reports, are expected to influence Federal Reserve monetary policy, potentially impacting zinc prices if the data is weak [1] - Despite the current market's low trading activity and subdued consumption sentiment, there is potential for a limited fluctuation in zinc prices due to the strength of other non-ferrous metals and possible export opportunities [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in precious metal prices, with Shanghai gold and silver experiencing notable gains of 3.88% and 8.90% respectively [2][7] - The macroeconomic environment shows a surge in U.S. Challenger job cuts to 108,400 in January, with new job additions at only 5,300, marking the worst performance in 17 years [2][7] - The U.S. consumer confidence index for February reached 57.3, the highest in six months, while one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in a year, indicating a potentially dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [2][7] Group 2 - The volatility of precious metal prices has increased significantly, showing a positive correlation with U.S. equities, particularly during risk-off sentiment leading to panic selling [3][8] - Despite recent price declines, the overall bullish outlook for precious metals remains unchanged, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips for hedging purposes [3][8] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 74.19 million ounces at the end of January, marking the 15th consecutive month of increases since November 2024 [2][7]