1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The long - term upward driving force of precious metals remains unchanged. Investors are advised to go long after the downward momentum of precious metals weakens. However, due to the large influx of investment funds and high price volatility recently, investors are advised to reduce positions to avoid short - term risks. Also, be vigilant against the medium - term risk of the Fed tightening monetary policy to end the precious metals bull market [4][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - After three consecutive days of sharp adjustments in the precious metals market due to the nomination of a hawkish Fed chair candidate by Trump and the easing of the US - Iran conflict risk, the precious metals sector rebounded. On February 3, Asian session, London gold returned above $4,900 per ounce. This was because the internal adjustment risk was fully released, attracting some bottom - fishing funds, and the Trump administration announced the launch of the Vault Project, boosting the strategic value expectation of key minerals [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Trump's confirmation of the next Fed chair candidate eliminated the market's hedging demand for this uncertainty. The hawkish stance of the candidate also alleviated concerns about the loss of US fiscal discipline, so the precious metals correction was reasonable. The previous sharp rise in precious metals also needed a large retracement. However, the hawkish stance has no fundamental impact on the long - term bull market of gold and may mainly compress the duration of the medium - term bull market. It is bullish for silver, platinum, and palladium compared to gold. The report maintains the view that gold will rise in the medium and long term, and silver, platinum, and palladium will be stronger than gold in the medium term [6] 3.1.3 Domestic Precious Metals Market Quotes | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Index | 1,008.88 | 1,099.95 | 1,034.88 | 1,095.29 | 8.56 | 315,593 | 3,738 | | SHFE Silver Index | 24,549 | 21,659 | 20,313 | 20,979 | - 14.54 | 583,536 | - 65,359 | | GZFE Platinum Index | 550.99 | 575.14 | 539.71 | 570.52 | 3.54 | 31,822 | - 1,995 | | GZFE Palladium Index | 412.91 | 449.05 | 413.73 | 448.62 | 8.65 | 11,715 | - 526 | [5] 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indexes, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indexes to Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16] 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump reached a trade agreement with India, reducing the US tariff on Indian goods from 50% to 18%. India will lower trade barriers, stop buying Russian oil, and buy from the US and Venezuela. The US will revoke the 25% punitive tariff, and India promises to buy over $500 billion of US products [17] - Trump is about to launch a strategic key mineral reserve plan called the Vault Project with an initial capital of $12 billion, integrating $2 billion of private funds and a $10 - billion loan from the US Export - Import Bank [17] - The US manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in a year in January. The ISM's January PMI rebounded to 52.6, breaking through the 50 mark for the first time in 12 months and reaching the highest level since August 2022. The new orders sub - index jumped from 47.4 in December to 57.1 in January, the highest since February 2022 [17] - Iran and the US will restart nuclear negotiations in Turkey on Friday. US envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi will meet in Istanbul, and representatives from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other countries will also participate [18]

Economic Data and Inflation Concerns - Recent economic data from the U.S. indicates renewed inflation concerns, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) rising by 0.5% month-on-month in December, the largest increase in five months, and a year-on-year increase of 3% [1][10] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations [1][10] - The ISM's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January rebounded to 52.6, marking the first time it has surpassed 50 in 12 months and the highest level since August 2022 [1][10] Manufacturing Expansion and Cost Pressures - The manufacturing sector's expansion in January was the fastest since 2022, attributed to the transmission effects of import tariffs, with companies passing on tariff-related costs to production [4][14] - This cost pressure may continue to push consumer inflation higher in the coming months, potentially allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain stable interest rates for a period [4][14] Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - Major investment firms like BlackRock, Bridgewater Associates, and PIMCO are adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of a new wave of inflation [4][14] - BlackRock is shorting U.S. Treasuries and UK gilts to hedge against falling interest rate expectations, while Bridgewater favors equities over bonds, and PIMCO is optimistic about U.S. Treasuries with embedded inflation protection [4][14] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - The outgoing Atlanta Fed President Bostic believes the Fed should not lower interest rates this year due to the strong economy and stable labor market, which could hinder efforts to bring inflation back to target levels [5][15] - Concerns about the impact of tariffs on inflation have a lagging effect, with many companies still uncertain about the true costs of tariffs [5][15] Future Inflation Projections - Looking ahead to 2026, inflation is expected to exhibit a "front-high, back-low" characteristic, with potential stronger inflation persistence in the first half of the year due to tariff transmission and tax cuts [6][16] - If the tariff transmission rate approaches 70%, the core PCE price index could end 2026 at 2.6% year-on-year [6][16] Federal Reserve Leadership and Policy Direction - The potential nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair could influence monetary policy, as he has historically advocated for a strong monetary policy stance [8][18] - Warsh's leadership may alleviate market concerns about inflation management being overshadowed by political priorities, promoting a data-driven approach to policy [8][18]

美联储新掌门上任了，是更具专业色彩和略偏鹰派的凯文·沃什，而不是特朗普的办公室主任凯文·哈塞特。 可以预见，2026年美联储降息将继续稳定2-3 次，而不会如特朗普想要的那般快，而美联储降息次数，会带动外贸汇率的变动。 元旦后人民币悄悄"破 7"，这只是开始。 2026年人民币汇率走强的核心 驱动力，在于美联储货币政策周期的历史性转向。"东升西降"的货币汇率，使得美元资产越来越不值钱，国际资本将加速流向更具增值潜力的人民币资产。 意外因素： 1、美国最高法院如何裁定川普"对等关税"，为汇率增添短期不可预测性； 2、爆发新战争，或南美/中东/俄乌战争外溢，外资流入美元避险，美 元升值； 3、人民币兑欧元双向波动、温和贬值，走势更复杂胶着，都受美元深刻影响。 2025年，在关税杀威棒之下，中国外贸展现出强大韧性。2025年前11个月进出口总值突破7.5万亿美元，贸易顺差规模达到创纪录的1.02万亿美元，这也是首 次破万亿，相当于德国全年GDP的五分之一。 2026年，市场预期这个顺差越拉越大，将会带动持汇观望的企业，加紧结汇，也带动了人民币升值。 值得注意的是，人民币国际化进程也在加速推进。截至2025年底，人民 ...

CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格23270-23310元/吨，跌410元，贴水240-贴水200，持平； 广东现货23275-23325元/吨，跌400元，贴水225-贴水175，涨20元；上海地区23260-23300元/吨，跌410 元，贴水250-贴水210，持平。 宏观层面，尽管特朗普信任提名主席沃什主张的货币政策框架鸽派立场不及预期，但业内专家指出，美 联储现有的利率管理机制高度依赖充裕的流动性环境，在不影响市场稳定的前提下收缩流动性面临重重 挑战。削减债券持仓本质上是紧缩行为，可能与降低利率的诉求相悖。金银市场巨震使全球市场风险偏 好急剧降温，而沃什的大规模缩表计划也与美联储当前依赖充裕流动性的利率管理机制存在冲突。此 外，特朗普计划启动战略关键矿产储备项目，供美国汽车企业、科技公司和制造商等采购并存储关键矿 产资源，以帮助企业对冲原材料价格波动风险，减少自行囤积库存的需求。国内方面，中国1月 RatingDog制造业PMI升至三个月高位50.3，销售价格14个月来首次回升，提振了市场多头信心，限制了 铝价跌幅。 CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝探底回升，LME三个月北京时间14：51报于30 ...

现任美联储主席鲍威尔就在去年10月表示，货币政策在"公众理解美联储在做什么以及为何这么做"的情 况下会"更加有效"。美联储上月维持利率不变。交易员普遍认为，至少要到7月，美联储才会再次调整 基准借贷成本。 （原标题：大摩：沃什执掌下美联储或"少说话" 美债市场波动将加剧） 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利表示，由凯文·沃什领导的美联储可能因央行对外沟通减少而推高美国 国债市场的波动性。该行策略师马修·霍恩巴赫和马丁·托比亚斯在1月30日的一份报告中写道："沃什并 不喜欢让市场过度依赖美联储的观点。如果市场的看法与他的判断不同，他未必会去强化市场的观 点。" 美国总统特朗普在上周提名沃什为下一任美联储主席，以接替将于5月结束主席任期的鲍威尔。沃什曾 在2006年至2011年期间担任美联储理事。摩根士丹利对当时联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议记录的回 顾显示，沃什希望投资者自行形成对经济增长、通胀以及货币政策的判断。 过去一年里，尽管美国国债收益率的绝对水平随着经济增长、劳动力市场和通胀变化而波动，但市场对 利率变动的反应幅度却大幅下降。这在很大程度上源于美联储政策路径的可预期性，以及其清晰的对外 沟通。 Mar ...

有色金属日报 2026-2-3 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美元指数继续回升，贵金属有色下探，昨日伦铜 3M 收盘跌 1.3%至 12900 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收 至 100820 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 300 至 174675 吨，亚洲库存减少而欧美库存增加，注销仓单比例 下滑，Cash ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant sell-off, driven by falling gold and silver prices, with major contracts hitting their daily limits and other varieties also declining [1][3]. Market Performance - As of the latest trading session, major contracts for copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and alloy have seen substantial declines, with copper futures down 9.01% and aluminum futures down 9.01% [2]. - The trading volume in the non-ferrous metal sector reached a recent high last Friday but has since decreased, although it remains elevated compared to previous days [2]. Price Trends and Influences - The night trading session continued the downward trend, with international copper futures down 1.11% and domestic copper futures down 1.01% [3]. - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair has strengthened expectations for tighter monetary policy, leading to a surge in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which has negatively impacted non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Year-to-date, absolute inventories of copper, aluminum, and nickel are significantly higher than in previous years, indicating weak price support from supply-demand dynamics [4]. - Global copper inventories exceed 1.3 million tons, putting upward pressure on prices, while domestic aluminum inventories have reached 1 million tons, reflecting weaker supply-demand structures compared to previous years [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent rapid increases in copper prices have led to a cooling of bullish sentiment, with the market potentially shifting towards fundamental trading [5]. - Seasonal demand suppression and inventory accumulation are expected to pressure prices leading up to the Chinese New Year, with a potential rebound in March if downstream recovery exceeds expectations [5][6].

Market Overview - The report highlights significant fluctuations in global assets following the hawkish nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, leading to a strong market reaction [2][8] - The short-term market may be overpricing the Fed's hawkish shift, with expectations of interest rate cuts likely preceding any balance sheet reduction [8] Economic Policy Insights - The report suggests that the Fed's ability to successfully reduce its balance sheet will depend on structural changes in fiscal policy and the real economy, rather than solely on the Fed's intentions [8] - It emphasizes that the core issue remains how inflation will be managed, potentially through fiscal discipline or production reforms [8] Stock Market Implications - The report anticipates increased volatility in the U.S. stock market, with a shift towards a more balanced investment style [8] - Key variables affecting the stock market include earnings validation and inflation trends, with a focus on the performance of the S&P 500 [8] Commodity Market Analysis - The report maintains that the bullish logic for gold, silver, and commodities remains intact, despite short-term volatility [8] - It notes that the speculative sell-off in precious metals was triggered by geopolitical signals and the Warsh nomination, impacting industrial metals as well [8] Sector Performance - The report identifies sectors such as electric grid equipment and liquor as outperformers in the recent market, while precious metals and industrial metals have seen significant declines [1][8] - It highlights the resilience of supply-demand dynamics in non-ferrous metals, despite recent liquidity shocks [8]

亚特兰大联储行长博斯蒂克周一表示，特朗普总统提名的下任美联储主席人选 沃什将面临领导美联储 的"艰巨任务"，尤其是在说服政策制定委员会成员配合其货币政策决策方面。 本月即将结束八年半亚特兰大联储总裁任期的博斯蒂克表示，他认为美联储今年不应降息，多位同僚也 持相同观点。特朗普表示提名沃什的部分原因在于，他认同总统关于降低借贷成本的立场。 "如果你想推动政策落地，或让政策朝你期望的方向发展，你必须说服他们跟你站在一起；而要做到这 一点，你得与他们建立关系，"博斯蒂克表示，"你必须赢得他们的信任，展现你的智慧和指引。而这些 都不是一夜之间能实现的。所以这是一项巨大的任务。" 上周美联储决策者以10比2的投票结果决定维持指标利率目标区间在3.50%-3.75%不变，并暗示无意急于 降息。 博斯蒂克表示，鉴于当前经济强劲且劳动力市场趋稳，降息"将使通胀回落至目标的可能性非常低，甚 至难以使其步入降温轨道"，"因此我认为现在需要保持耐心"。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李桐 亚特兰大联储行长博斯蒂克周一表示，特朗普总统提名的下任美联储主席人选 沃什将面临领导美联储 的"艰巨任务"，尤其是在说服政策制 ...

转自：贵州日报 韩国股市2日遭遇重挫，主要股指韩国综合股价指数大幅下跌超5%，触发熔断机制，暂停交易5分钟。 图为2月2日，在韩国首尔，银行工作人员在显示股指信息的屏幕前忙碌。 新华/传真 受美联储货币政策预期转"鹰"、技术性调整压力、贵金属市场震荡外溢效应和市场担忧科技股估值过高 等因素影响，全球市场2日遭遇"黑色星期一"。贵金属市场经历"过山车"行情，原油市场大幅下跌，部 分股市显著下挫甚至触发"临时停牌"。 国际市场贵金属价格2日开盘后大幅跳水。纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格盘中一度跌至每盎司4423.2美 元，较前一交易日收盘价下跌超6%；白银期货价格盘中一度跌至每盎司71.2美元，下跌超9%。现货市 场同样惨淡，伦敦现货黄金价格盘中一度跌至每盎司4402.06美元，跌幅超10%；白银价格盘中一度跌 至每盎司71.312美元，跌幅超16%。此后，金价银价有所反弹。 国际黄金和白银价格近期刷新历史高点后出现剧烈波动。与1月29日创下的历史最高点相比，2日白银价 格盘中低点的累计跌幅已达40%，金价累计跌幅约20%。 彭博社报道，2日的市场表现表明，在贵金属持续上涨和股市屡创新高之后，市场波动性正在加剧。与 ...