Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [6] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [6] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is affected by geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, with energy prices rising and downstream acceptance poor. The alumina market has a continuous decline in spot market transactions, and the supply is expected to be in excess. The aluminum alloy market is in the off - season, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [3][5]. Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,770 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract opened at 20,650 yuan/ton, closed at 20,585 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or - 0.24% from the previous trading day [1]. - The trading volume was 143,884 lots, an increase of 8,282 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 175,674 lots, a decrease of 22,949 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - As of June 19, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 449,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 344,950 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Market Analysis - The spot market is affected by geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East. The supply side has no negative factors in China, but there is a risk of production cuts at the Rio Tinto electrolytic aluminum plant in Australia. The consumption side shows marginal weakness, and the inventory reduction rate slows down. There is a condition for continuous squeezing of positions in China under the current low - inventory situation [3]. Alumina Price and Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,175 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,215 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - The alumina main contract opened at 2,926 yuan/ton, closed at 2,901 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 250,405 lots, a decrease of 209,382 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 300,995 lots, an increase of 926 lots from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - The spot market transactions have a continuous decline. The electrolytic aluminum plants have stable long - term supply, and the spot procurement frequency is reduced. The alumina plants have no great sales pressure under long - term supply guarantee. The supply has increased with the resumption of production of long - term overhauled capacity and the release of new capacity in North China. The cost of alumina plants' procurement is conservative, and the supply is expected to be in excess [4][5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the Baotai civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,300 yuan/ton, the mechanical aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 19,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 23,800 tons, a weekly increase of 1,500 tons, the in - factory inventory was 82,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,100 tons, and the total inventory was 106,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 600 tons [2]. Market Analysis - It is the off - season for aluminum alloy consumption. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5]. Strategies Unilateral - Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Neutral [6]. Arbitrage - Shanghai Aluminum positive spread arbitrage; Long AD11 and short AL11 [6].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/20 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78660 9755 8.10 三月 77930 9622 8.16 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -1293.68 现货出口 541.23 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22000 2595 8.48 三月 21550 2622 6.46 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.70 -583.20 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20770 2538 8.18 三月 20340 2538 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.61 -1086.05 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120400 14839 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.27 -3376.30 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 | | 国内价格 | LME价格 | 比价 | | 均衡比价 | 盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

铝期货方面：2025-06-18日沪铝主力合约开于20520元/吨，收于20680元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨275元/ 吨，涨幅1.35%，最高价达20745元/吨，最低价达到20500元/吨。全天交易日成交135602手，较上一交易日增 加33904手，全天交易日持仓198623手，较上一交易日减少321手。 能源扰动引发铝价上涨 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-19 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20900元/吨，较上一交易日上涨280元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌30元/吨至180元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20750元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 下跌40元/吨至40元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20760元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨25元/吨至55元/ 吨。 库存方面，截止2025-06-16，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存45.8万吨。截止2025-06-18，LME铝库存347000 吨，较前一交易日减少2100吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-18 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3170元/吨，山东价格录得3180元 ...

跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/18 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -330 -510 -780 -950 理论价差 496 889 1292 1694 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -425 -560 -655 -725 理论价差 214 333 453 572 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -425 -545 -645 -725 理论价差 215 330 446 561 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -50 -55 -55 -55 理论价差 210 315 421 527 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 -660 -470 -330 -170 锡 5-1 价差 -780 理论价差 5460 期现套利跟踪 2025/06/18 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 25 -305 理论价差 475 862 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 60 -365 理论价差 132 260 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 铝合金与铝价价差走扩 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20620元/吨，较上一交易日下跌10元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日上涨240元/吨至210元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20490元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 上涨200元/吨至80元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20440元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨245元/吨至30 元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-06-17日沪铝主力合约开于20410元/吨，收于20460元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨70元/ 吨，涨幅0.34%，最高价达20475元/吨，最低价达到20355元/吨。全天交易日成交101698手，较上一交易日减 少54378手，全天交易日持仓198944手，较上一交易日减少5356手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-16，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存45.8万吨。截止2025-06-17，LME铝库存349100 吨，较前一交易日减少2100吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-17 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3180元/吨，山东价格录得319 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Aluminum prices may face difficulties in breaking upward without unexpected positive stimuli and could return to the previous plateau after the contract rollover, while the risk of cost collapse should be watched [4] - Alumina supply is expected to remain in excess with the release of new capacity and the recovery of previously maintained capacity, despite current slow提货 issues [6] - Aluminum alloy prices have limited upside during the off - season, but cost support exists, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Group 3: Key Data Aluminum - Spot prices: Yangtze River A00 aluminum was 20630 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20520 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum was 20420 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On June 16, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20375 yuan/ton, closed at 20405 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.1%), with a trading volume of 156076 lots and an open interest of 204300 lots [2] - Inventory: As of June 16, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 45.8 tons, and LME aluminum inventory was 351200 tons, down 2025 tons [2] Alumina - Spot prices: On June 16, 2025, SMM alumina prices were 3200 yuan/ton in Shanxi and Shandong, 3250 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and FOB price in Australia was 370 dollars/ton [3] - Futures: On June 16, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2850 yuan/ton, closed at 2852 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.73%), with a trading volume of 294017 lots and an open interest of 298925 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On June 16, 2025, Baotai's civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 15400 yuan/ton, mechanical aluminum scrap was 15500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; ADC12 Baotai quote was 19600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Inventory: The total aluminum alloy inventory was 10.73 tons, down 0.41 tons week - on - week [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Aluminum - Supply: There is a risk of production cuts at Rio Tinto's electrolytic aluminum plants in Australia [4] - Demand: Consumption shows signs of weakening marginally, and the inventory drawdown has slowed [4] - Market situation: The soft squeeze may have ended, and upward breakthrough of aluminum prices may be difficult without unexpected positive factors [4] Alumina - Supply: Industry profits have recovered, with production and inventory rising due to capacity restart and new capacity output [6] - Cost: Alumina plants' procurement is conservative, and domestic imported ore prices are hard to rise despite high freight [6] Aluminum Alloy - Market: It is in the off - season, with limited price upside, but cost support exists [6] - Arbitrage: Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities with the 11 - contract becoming a peak - season contract [6] Group 5: Strategies - Unilateral: Aluminum - Neutral; Alumina - Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy - Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [7]

跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/16 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -890 -1100 -1310 -1540 理论价差 497 891 1295 1698 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -560 -855 -1010 -1105 理论价差 215 336 457 578 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -235 -465 -615 -725 理论价差 214 330 445 561 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 65 60 35 45 理论价差 209 315 420 526 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 1920 2120 2260 2480 锡 5-1 价差 1290 理论价差 5448 期现套利跟踪 2025/06/16 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -15 -905 理论价差 114 421 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 105 -455 理论价差 8 137 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/11 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 79260 9814 8.06 三月 78770 9730 8.13 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -1195.14 现货出口 375.79 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22170 2603 8.52 三月 21655 2636 6.39 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.70 -481.62 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20160 2472 8.15 三月 19880 2465 8.13 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.66 -1240.39 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 123050 15171 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.27 -3823.28 跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/11 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -120 -230 -370 -600 理论价差 497 892 1296 1700 锌 ...

Group 1 - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures on June 10 has seen all contracts rise, with the main contract reaching a high of 19,500 yuan and a low of 19,070 yuan, marking an increase of 4.63% [1] - Current market conditions indicate a strong upward trend for casting aluminum alloy, despite being in a traditional off-season for consumption [1] - Institutions suggest that the price difference between ADC12 and A00 is currently around -800 yuan, with historical mid-year lows typically between -1,000 to -1,500 yuan [1] Group 2 - The current spot price for ADC12 is approximately between 19,500 to 20,000 yuan per ton, with production costs at 20,086 yuan per ton, indicating a potential buying opportunity at lower prices [2] - Concerns about severe overcapacity in casting aluminum alloy production and the traditional off-season from June to August suggest a downward trend in the medium to long term [2] - The expected reasonable trading range for AD2511 is projected to be between 18,000 to 19,700 yuan per ton [2]

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