根据经济金融形势的变化，做好逆周期和跨周期调节，持续营造适宜的货币金融环境；综合运用多种货 币政策工具，保持流动性充裕；引导银行稳固信贷支持力度，保持金融总量合理增长，使社会融资规 模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配 ◎记者 张琼斯 11月11日，中国人民银行发布2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告，释放未来货币政策新信号。报告 还以专栏文章形式提出，科学看待金融总量指标，观察金融总量要更多看社会融资规模、货币供应量指 标；保持合理的利率比价关系，尤其是关注央行政策利率和市场利率、不同类型资产收益率等重要的利 率比价关系等。 报告称，国内经济回升向好基础仍需加力巩固。下阶段，央行将进一步深化金融改革和高水平对外开 放，加快建设金融强国，完善中央银行制度，构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理 体系，畅通货币政策传导机制。 关于下一阶段的货币政策主要思路，报告明确，平衡好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部均衡与外部 均衡、支持实体经济与保持银行体系自身健康性的关系，强化宏观政策取向一致性，做好逆周期和跨周 期调节，提升宏观经济治理效能，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期。 多年来，我国金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the moderately loose monetary policy has effectively supported the real economy, and with the coordination of macro policies, the annual economic growth target of around 5% is expected to be achieved [1][4]. Monetary Policy Effectiveness - The report highlights that the counter-cyclical adjustment effects of monetary policy have gradually emerged, with reasonable growth in financial aggregates and low social financing costs [2]. - As of the end of September, the social financing scale stock and broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 270.4 trillion yuan [2]. - Loans in sectors such as technology, green finance, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital economy have grown faster than the overall loan growth rate, with loans for the elderly care industry increasing by nearly 60% [2]. Coordination of Policies - The report emphasizes the ongoing strengthening of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, which has facilitated the smooth issuance of government bonds [3]. - The net financing amount of government bonds is expected to reach 11 trillion yuan in 2024, with this year likely to exceed 12 trillion yuan [3]. Future Monetary Policy Direction - The People's Bank of China plans to maintain reasonable growth in financial aggregates and leverage monetary credit policy effectively, balancing short-term and long-term goals, as well as internal and external factors [3]. - The report stresses the importance of implementing moderately loose monetary policies to fully release policy effects [3]. Financial Indicators and Their Interpretation - The report includes sections addressing how to scientifically view financial aggregate indicators, noting that the current RMB loan balance has reached 270 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale stock is at 437 trillion yuan [6]. - Experts suggest that as the economy transitions from high-speed growth to high-quality development, the focus should shift from merely pursuing high growth in financial aggregates to optimizing the use of existing financial resources [6]. Interest Rate Mechanism - The report discusses the complexity of the money creation and derivation process, emphasizing that loan issuance is not the only way for banks to derive money [7]. - It highlights the need for maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships and improving the effectiveness of monetary policy through better coordination and execution of interest rate policies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize financial conditions, while also addressing the evolving needs of the real economy [1][2][4]. Monetary Policy Execution - The PBOC's report indicates that the financial aggregate has grown rapidly, with the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) increasing by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, as of September [3]. - The report highlights that the current balance of RMB loans has reached 270 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale stands at 437 trillion yuan [3]. Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the national economy is progressing steadily, with a solid foundation to achieve the annual growth target of around 5% [4]. - It notes that the macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and monetary measures, are expected to work in coordination to support this growth [4]. Financial Structure and Monetary Creation - The report discusses the relationship between base money and broader money supply, indicating that changes in base money can influence the creation of broad money, but they are not directly correlated [5]. - It emphasizes that the channels for bank money creation are becoming more diversified, reflecting changes in financing and economic structures [5]. Interest Rates and Resource Allocation - The report outlines the significance of interest rates and their relative relationships in guiding resource allocation within the economy [6]. - It explains that changes in interest rates can lead to shifts in capital flows towards higher return assets, impacting various financial markets [6]. Future Monetary Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to maintain a relatively loose social financing condition and implement appropriate monetary policies to support economic stability [8]. - Key measures include enhancing credit support for small and medium-sized enterprises, expanding financial supply for consumption, and stabilizing the RMB exchange rate [8][9]. Risk Management and Financial Stability - The report emphasizes the importance of preventing and mitigating financial risks through a robust macro-prudential policy framework [9]. - It highlights the need for continuous innovation in financial tools to maintain market stability and address systemic risks [9].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions and improve the monetary policy framework [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of ensuring liquidity is abundant, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1] - Analysts expect further monetary policy easing, including potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to stabilize the macroeconomic environment [1][2] Group 2 - The report indicates that promoting a reasonable rebound in prices is a key consideration for monetary policy, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 0.2% in October [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October, but the rate of decline has narrowed for three consecutive months [3] - The PBOC stresses the need for macro policies to work together to promote a virtuous cycle of supply and demand in the real economy [3] Group 3 - The PBOC aims to improve the interest rate adjustment framework and strengthen the guidance of policy interest rates, while also enhancing the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism [4] - The report emphasizes the dual function of monetary policy tools in terms of total volume and structure, supporting key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [4]

11月11日，央行发布2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告。报告提出，下阶段，中国人民银行将保持 金融总量合理增长。实施好适度宽松的货币政策，保持社会融资条件相对宽松。根据经济金融形势的变 化，做好逆周期和跨周期调节，持续营造适宜的货币金融环境。密切关注海外主要央行货币政策变化， 持续加强对银行体系流动性供求和金融市场变化的分析监测。综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性 充裕。引导银行稳固信贷支持力度，保持金融总量合理增长，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济 增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", with a short - term "oscillation" view, medium - term "oscillation" view, and intraday "weak oscillation" view. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the bond market (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "weak oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that although there is an expectation of moderately loose monetary policy in the medium and long term due to insufficient domestic effective demand, the strong resilience of macro - economic data and reduced necessity for year - end policy increments, along with rising risk appetite in the stock market, limit the short - term upward momentum of bond futures. In general, the bond futures will oscillate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the change in interest - rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "weak oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillation". The bond futures oscillated yesterday. Policy - level favorable expectations are rising, but due to strong macro - economic data and reduced necessity for policy increments, as well as rising stock - market risk appetite, the short - term upward momentum of bond futures is insufficient, and they will oscillate in the short term [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second cut of the year, reflecting a balance between economic downturn risks and inflation control [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated uncertainty regarding further rate cuts in December, highlighting the challenges of stimulating economic growth without triggering inflation [1] - In contrast, China's monetary policy has shown more proactive measures, with multiple reductions in the reserve requirement ratio since 2021, releasing trillions in long-term liquidity to support the real economy [1] Group 2 - As of September 2024, the People's Bank of China has further intensified monetary policy, lowering the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.70% to 1.50% and implementing reserve requirement cuts to enhance market liquidity [2] - Historical context suggests that if the Fed's rate cut is seen as a "crisis response," it could negatively impact market confidence and lead to declines in global risk assets, including A-shares [2] - The current rate cut is characterized as "preventive," aimed at mitigating recession risks without significant signs of economic downturn, creating a relatively loose liquidity environment for global markets [2] Group 3 - The A-share market's core drivers are domestic economic fundamentals and policy direction, with external liquidity expectations providing a positive influence [3] - Sectors aligned with national industrial upgrade strategies, such as AI computing and semiconductors, are expected to attract investment due to their growth potential and innovation [3] - Challenges for the A-share market include global economic uncertainties and potential structural issues like overcapacity and slowing corporate profit growth during the recovery process [3] Group 4 - Overall, the Fed's rate cut creates a favorable external environment for A-shares, but the medium to long-term performance will depend on domestic economic recovery and the implementation of industrial policies [4] - Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors with strong internal dynamics and structural opportunities, emphasizing the importance of thorough research on industry trends and company fundamentals [4]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Management - The central bank is gradually implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with macro-prudential management continuously improving, as evidenced by the recent financial forum where the central bank governor emphasized the importance of debt market operations [6][8] - The central bank's net purchase of 700 billion yuan in government bonds from October to December 2024 is aimed at alleviating supply-side pressures, indicating a mature timing for the resumption of bond trading [6][7] - The construction of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system is being accelerated to prevent and resolve financial risks, enhancing the ability to manage banking asset quality concerns [8] Group 2: Capital Market Reforms - The capital market is focusing on deepening investment and financing reforms while enhancing protections for small and medium investors, as highlighted in a recent speech by the chairman of the securities regulatory commission [11][12] - The multi-tiered capital market system is being reinforced, with specific reforms aimed at the growth board and the North Exchange to better serve emerging industries and technologies [13][14] - The introduction of a refinancing framework is expected to streamline the process for quality companies, allowing them to issue securities in a more flexible manner [15] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Huayang Group reported Q3 2025 revenue of 3.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, driven by strong performance in automotive electronics and precision die-casting [19][20] - Hengli Hydraulic achieved a revenue of 7.79 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 12.31% year-on-year growth, with a notable recovery in the excavator industry [23][24] - Hengli Petrochemical's Q3 net profit increased by 81.47% year-on-year, despite a revenue decline, due to effective cost management and improved gross margins [27][28] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment recommendations for Huayang Group suggest a clear growth path driven by automotive electronics and precision die-casting, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [22] - Hengli Hydraulic is positioned as a leader in the hydraulic components market, with expected net profits of 2.796 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a strong recovery in the excavator sector [25] - Hengli Petrochemical is expected to benefit from a new cycle in the refining industry, with a maintained "buy" rating based on its robust dividend policy and market position [29]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support the ongoing economic recovery and create a conducive financial environment [1] Monetary Policy Implementation - The report highlights the need to effectively execute existing monetary policy measures and continuously release their effectiveness [1] - It calls for the research and preparation of new policy initiatives to further support economic growth [1] Liquidity and Financing - The report stresses the importance of maintaining ample liquidity and ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [1] - It advocates for optimizing the use of existing funds and improving the efficiency of capital utilization [1] Interest Rate and Cost Management - The report underscores the need to strengthen the execution and supervision of interest rate policies, aiming to reduce the overall financing costs for society [1] - It emphasizes the importance of guiding expectations and preventing excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, while maintaining the stability of the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with the central bank resuming the buying and selling of government bonds, which is expected to positively impact market sentiment [4]. - The central bank's actions are seen as a response to weak internal demand and manageable inflation pressures externally, with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. - The report anticipates that the overall performance pressure on banks will be limited, despite potential challenges in investment income for smaller banks due to a high base effect [4]. - The construction of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system is emphasized to prevent and mitigate financial risks, which is expected to alleviate concerns regarding bank asset quality [4]. - The report suggests that the retail asset risk for banks is yet to be confirmed, but overall asset quality is expected to remain stable [4]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy and Market Response - The central bank's resumption of government bond transactions is viewed as a further step in implementing a loose monetary policy, with a net purchase of 700 billion yuan in government bonds expected in Q4 2024 [4]. - Market reactions are anticipated to be more rational, with a positive impact on bond market sentiment, although the performance may not reach the levels seen in Q4 2024 due to various factors [4]. Financial Sector Performance - The report notes that the banking sector's credit growth is gradually slowing, but new policy tools may positively influence credit in Q4 [4]. - The expected downward pressure on interest margins in 2025 is projected to be less severe than in 2024, with a stable overall asset quality outlook [4]. Risk Management - The People's Bank of China aims to enhance its macro-prudential management framework to better monitor and assess systemic financial risks [4]. - The report indicates that the experience gained in managing risks related to small financial institutions and real estate will contribute to improved financial stability [4].