2025年12月17日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.426 | 102.470 | 105.795 | 105.795 | 107.905 | 107.920 | 111.39 | 111.55 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.454 | 102.494 | 105.785 | 105.785 | 107.870 | 107.900 | 111.53 | 111.75 | | | 涨跌 | -0.028 | -0.024 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.035 | 0.020 | -0.140 | ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining stability while seeking progress, advocating for continued implementation of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [3] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is highlighted as a primary option, indicating the urgency to boost internal consumption through various measures [4] - The report anticipates a marginal improvement in consumption and infrastructure investment, driven by supportive policies [4][5] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The meeting outlines a direction for maintaining a loose monetary environment, with a flexible approach to using various policy tools such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments [3] - A more proactive fiscal policy is proposed, with an emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing fiscal expenditure structures [3] Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with plans to implement income increase strategies for urban and rural residents, aiming to stimulate consumption [4] - The report suggests that traditional infrastructure sectors may see a recovery in profitability due to policy support [4] Anti-Competition Measures - The report indicates an increased effort to combat "involution" in competition, which is expected to restore profitability in related industries [4] - A unified national market construction regulation is anticipated, which will help maintain a healthy competitive environment [4] Investment Strategy - The overall economic outlook for the next year is positive, with both fiscal and monetary policies expected to support a stable stock market [5] - The report identifies consumer sectors as having potential for marginal improvement in 2026, alongside a recovery in traditional industries due to anti-competition policies [5]

Market Overview - The Wind All A index fell by 0.63% with an average daily trading volume of 1.79 trillion yuan, while the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and Shanghai Composite Index also experienced declines of 0.84%, 0.78%, and 0.63% respectively [2][8] - The technology sector weakened again, while non-bank financials and retail trade sectors led the gains [2][8] - The stock index futures market has been oscillating around the lower end of the range since October, with limited differentiation between large and small-cap indices and frequent sector rotations [2][8] Policy Insights - The December Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are expected to enhance the short-term impact of policies on the market, with a focus on achieving a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [9] - The GDP growth target for next year is anticipated to remain at 5%, with policy directions emphasizing "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting new quality productivity" [9] - The meetings highlighted the need to combine investments in physical and human capital, indicating that boosting residents' income and consumption capacity is crucial for macro inflation expectations [9] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels suggests that the combination of fiscal and monetary policies will not change significantly, with a slight increase expected compared to this year [9] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to continue implementing moderately loose monetary policies, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions flexibly and effectively [10][4] Bond Market - The 30-year bond futures contract fell by 0.99%, reaching the lowest level since October 31, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts also saw minor declines [10] - The yield on the 30-year government bond rose by over 3 basis points to 2.281%, marking the highest level since October 10 [10] - The PBOC conducted a 130.9 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a bid rate of 1.4%, maintaining liquidity in the market [10] Precious Metals - London spot gold experienced a pullback after reaching a high, while silver showed strong performance, rising above 64 USD/oz [11] - The platinum price broke previous highs, and the gold-silver ratio decreased to around 67.3, with the platinum-palladium price spread widening to approximately 221 USD/oz [11] - The New York Federal Reserve's general business conditions index dropped significantly, indicating a contraction in manufacturing, but the outlook for the next six months improved, reflecting increased optimism regarding orders and shipments [11]

021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 16 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货12月15日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.640 | 112.250 | 111.530 | 111.600 | -1.110 | -0.9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese central bank emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain ample liquidity and support economic growth, particularly in key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI A500 ETF (560510) rose by 0.18% with a transaction volume of 32.2267 million yuan as of 10:57 AM [1] - The CSI A500 Index (000510) increased by 0.10%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Dongfang Risheng (300118) up 20.02%, Goodway (688390) up 12.42%, and Nanda Optoelectronics (300346) up 10.94% [1] Group 2: Policy Insights - The central bank's meeting highlighted the "strong supply and weak demand" contradiction, aiming for qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy [1] - Future policies are expected to focus more on domestic demand, with an emphasis on enhancing consumption resilience and driving innovation and reform [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest a balanced allocation between dividend and technology styles, with attention to industries that may experience marginal catalysts, while waiting for a potential "spring rally" [2] - The CSI A500 Index is noted for its strong market representation and higher coverage of emerging sectors, making it a valuable tool for capturing core strengths in various industries during economic transformation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been enhancing its monetary policy toolkit to support the transformation and upgrading of the economy, focusing on directing credit resources towards key strategic areas and weak links in the national economy [1][8]. Monetary Policy and Financial Data - As of November 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 336.99 trillion yuan, growing by 8.0% year-on-year, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 112.89 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1] - The total social financing stock was 440.07 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year, exceeding the previous year's growth by 0.7 percentage points [1] - From January to November, the increment in social financing was 33.39 trillion yuan, which is 3.99 trillion yuan more than the previous year [1] - The increase in RMB deposits was 24.73 trillion yuan, while RMB loans rose by 15.36 trillion yuan during the same period [1]. Fiscal Policy and Government Bonds - The macroeconomic policies have intensified counter-cyclical adjustments, positively impacting domestic demand and economic stability, thereby supporting reasonable growth in financial totals [3] - The total new government debt this year reached 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from last year, with significant contributions from various types of government bonds [3] - The issuance of government bonds has been accelerated, with 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special bonds fully issued, and 2 trillion yuan allocated for refinancing hidden debts [3] - The net financing of government bonds is expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan this year, accounting for 40% of the increase in social financing [3]. Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The collaboration between monetary and fiscal policies has effectively stabilized market liquidity and provided funding assurance for major projects [4] - The PBOC's liquidity support has facilitated the smooth issuance of government bonds, maintaining stable market expectations [4] - The synergy between macro policies is crucial, producing a combined effect that supports growth and structural adjustments [4]. Direct Financing Development - The development of direct financing through equity and bonds is a clear directive in the 14th Five-Year Plan, aligning with the goal of building a strong financial nation [5] - Direct financing is characterized by risk-sharing and long-term partnerships, making it more suitable for high-growth and R&D-intensive sectors [5]. Loan Growth and Quality Improvement - By the end of November, the RMB loan balance was 271 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, remaining above the nominal economic growth rate [6] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down about 30 basis points from the previous year [7] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.88 trillion yuan, growing by 11.4%, while medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increased by 7.7% [7]. Credit Structure Optimization - The PBOC has been guiding financial institutions to enhance the adaptability of financial products and services to the economic transformation [8] - Optimizing the credit structure is essential for achieving high-quality development and meeting the operational goals of banks [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期持续发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡反弹。沪深京三市全天成交额 2.12 万亿元，较上日成交额放量 2335 亿元。中央经济工作会议指出 2026 年要继续实施更加积极的财政政 ...

重要的消息有哪些 新股提示 今日可申购健信超导，健信超导发行市盈率61.97倍，申购代码为：787805，申购价格：18.58元，单一 账户申购上限1万股。 投资有风险，申购需谨慎。 A股多个指数调整生效 深圳证券交易所及深圳证券信息有限公司此前发布公告，根据指数编制规则，将对深证成指、创业板 指、深证100、创业板50等深市指数实施样本定期调整。 此外，中证指数有限公司11月28日公布沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证A50、中证A100、中证 A500等指数样本定期调整方案。 12月12日，金融监管总局党委召开会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，结合全国金融系统工作会议 部署要求，研究贯彻落实措施。党委书记、局长李云泽主持会议。会议强调，坚定履行风险防控首位主 责，着力化解存量风险，坚决遏制增量风险，严守不"爆雷"底线。支持稳定房地产市场，进一步发挥城 市房地产融资协调机制作用，助力构建房地产发展新模式。指导银行保险机构按照市场化法治化原则， 积极化解地方政府融资平台金融债务风险。 上述调整均为指数样本的定期调整，将于12月15日正式生效。 中央财办发声：将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策 12月13 ...

Group 1 - The total social financing increment exceeded 3.3 trillion yuan in the first eleven months [1] - The Central Financial Office announced that incremental policies will be implemented next year based on the situation [1] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is promoting the implementation of major projects to support domestic demand through incremental investments [1] Group 2 - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain stable financial market operations [1] - Three departments jointly issued 11 measures to boost consumption, enhancing business and financial collaboration to stimulate consumer spending [1] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau supports stabilizing the real estate market and aims to help establish a new development model for the sector [1] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will strictly investigate illegal activities by private equity funds [1] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association announced the establishment of a "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform" [1] - The film box office in China is projected to exceed 50 billion yuan by 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for a stable yet progressive economic policy, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements while leveraging both existing and new policies to enhance macroeconomic governance [1] - The conference highlighted the importance of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, utilizing various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [2][3] - The report from the China Minsheng Bank Research Institute indicated that the monetary policy will prioritize flexibility and efficiency, balancing multiple objectives to improve the quality and long-term effects of policy implementation [3] Group 2 - The conference reiterated the commitment to a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels while optimizing fiscal expenditure structures and addressing local fiscal challenges [4][5] - It was noted that the fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to reflect a stable deficit rate while increasing the scale of special bonds and quasi-fiscal policy tools to support infrastructure and manufacturing investments [5][6] - The emphasis on new policy financial tools suggests that there may be an increase in quasi-fiscal financial instruments in 2026, aimed at alleviating local fiscal pressures and enhancing investment in social sectors such as education and healthcare [6]