Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming financial events, including the maturity of 1 trillion yuan in 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and 69 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos [1] - It also mentions the release of important economic data, specifically China's second quarter GDP year-on-year growth rate [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The prices of treasury bond futures fluctuated, with the T2509 contract down 0.01%. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates were mixed, and the yields of key - term treasury bonds generally increased. Overseas, the yields of US, German, and Japanese treasury bonds also rose. The external environment became more complex, with increased global economic uncertainty due to the "reciprocal tariff" policy. The domestic market had insufficient effective demand, and the prices of treasury bond futures fluctuated more due to the enhanced expectation of real - estate stabilization policies [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of treasury bond futures on the previous trading day were mixed. For example, the T2509 contract fell 0.01%, and the trading volume and open interest of each contract changed. The open interest of TS2509 decreased by 418, while that of TS2512 increased by 231 [2] - **Arbitrage**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term domestic treasury bonds generally increased. The 10Y treasury bond yield rose 0.47bp to 1.66%, and the spread between long - and short - term (10 - 2) treasury bonds was 23.61bp [2] - **Overseas Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds increased. The US 10Y treasury bond yield rose 8bp, the German 10Y treasury bond yield rose 6bp, and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield rose 0.9bp [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 11, the central bank conducted 847 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 507 billion yuan. There will be 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of MLF maturing this week [3] - **Diplomatic Meetings**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with US Secretary of State Rubio in Kuala Lumpur, and both sides agreed to strengthen communication and dialogue [3] - **Policy Regulations**: The Ministry of Finance required state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management and adjusted the assessment methods of some indicators [3] - **Economic Data**: In the second quarter, high - frequency data in multiple domestic fields improved. The offline consumption heat index increased by 25.5% year - on - year, and the online retail sales of major home appliances rose by 28.0% [3] - **International Trade**: US President Trump announced tariffs on products from Mexico, the EU, and Canada, increasing market concerns about inflation and trade tensions [3] - **Japanese Central Bank Action**: The Bank of Japan launched a "morning quote" for spot transactions, lending Japanese government bonds to support market liquidity [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On July 11, most money - market interest rates in China increased. US Treasury yields rose across the board, driven by Trump's tariff announcements [3] Comments and Strategies - **Market Situation**: The central bank's open - market operations shifted from net withdrawal to net injection last week. Shibor remained low, and the domestic money market was relatively stable. Overseas, tariff announcements increased concerns about inflation and trade tensions. The domestic economy was generally expanding in June, but market demand was weak, and commodity prices were affected by policies [3] - **Market Outlook**: The external environment became more complex, with increased global economic uncertainty. The domestic market had insufficient effective demand, and the central bank maintained a supportive monetary policy. The "anti - involution" market trend continued, increasing the expectation of real - estate stabilization policies and causing greater fluctuations in treasury bond futures prices [3]

中国央行逆回购操作当日实现净投放1197亿元 金十数据7月14日讯，中国央行今日开展2262亿元7天期逆回购操作，因今日有1065亿元7天期逆回购到期，当日实现净投放1197 亿元。看公开市场资金流向，到"数据库-中国央行数据"查看>> MLF 逆回购到期 | MLF到期 | 日期 | 类别(全部) | 量(亿) | 期限 | 利率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-14 | 逆回购到期 | 1065 | 7天 | | | 2025-07-14 | 逆回购 | 2262 | 7天 | 1.4 | | 2025-07-11 | 逆回购到期 | 340 | 7天 | | | 2025-07-11 | 逆回购 | 847 | 7天 | 1.4 | | 2025-07-10 | 逆回购到期 | 572 | 7天 | | | 2025-07-10 | 逆回购 | 900 | 7天 | 1.4 | | 2025-07-09 | 逆回购到期 | 985 | 7天 | | | 2025-07-09 | 逆回购 | 755 | 7天 | 1.4 | | 2025-07-08 ...

中国央行：今日开展2262亿元7天逆回购操作，投标量2262亿元，中标量2262亿元，操作利率为 1.40%，与此前持平。同花顺（300033）iFinD数据显示，今日有1065亿元7天期逆回购到期。 ...

Group 1 - The National New Office will hold two press conferences on July 14, focusing on the financial statistics for the first half of 2025 and import-export data [1] - The 12th World Chemical Engineering Conference and the 21st Asia-Pacific Chemical Alliance Conference will take place from July 14 to 18, addressing challenges in chemical engineering and future talent education [2] Group 2 - On July 14, a total of 14 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked, with a total unlock volume of 1.008 billion shares, amounting to a market value of 14.507 billion yuan [3] - Six companies will have over 10 million shares unlocked, with Zhaoxin Co., Beixin Road and Bridge, and Tianyue Advanced leading in unlock volume [3] - The companies with the highest unlock market value include Tianyue Advanced, Xinghui Huan Material, and Huasheng Lithium Battery, with values of 7.487 billion yuan, 2.753 billion yuan, and 1.826 billion yuan respectively [3] Group 3 - Four companies disclosed stock repurchase progress on July 14, with one company reporting ongoing repurchase and three completing their repurchase plans [4] - The highest repurchase amount reported was 20.0616 million yuan by Cambrian [4] - Companies that completed repurchases include Wanhua Chemical, Qingyuan Co., and Mercury Home Textiles, with repurchase amounts of 500 million yuan, 4.2422 million yuan, and 291,900 yuan respectively [4] Group 4 - A total of 106.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos will mature today, following a central bank operation on July 7 with an interest rate of 1.40% [5] Group 5 - Economic data such as India's June CPI year-on-year and Japan's May production capacity index will be released [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report It is expected that with the combined cooperation of the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase and outright reverse repurchase, the funds' volatility during the tax period may be small. The past week saw a slight tightening of funds, and in the coming week, attention should be paid to the disturbances of government bond net payments and tax period outflows. The trading demand from trading desks has weakened, and the net buying of general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds by major non - bank buyers has significantly decreased. In the future, the disturbances from funds and the equity market to the bond market will increase, and recently, the market may return to active bond trading to avoid liquidity risks during adjustments [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Central Bank Operations - In the past week (7/7 - 7/11), the central bank's open - market operations led to a net liquidity withdrawal of 2265 billion yuan. As of 7/11, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 4257 billion yuan, significantly lower than that on 6/30 but still higher than the seasonal level in previous years. In the next week (7/14 - 7/18), the central bank's reverse repurchase will mature 4257 billion yuan, with a relatively small maturity scale evenly distributed daily. In July, the central bank has 1.5 trillion yuan of MLF and outright reverse repurchase maturing, including 3000 billion yuan of MLF, 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase, and 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase [9][10]. 3.1.2 Government Bond Issuance - In the past week, the government bond net payment was 2961 billion yuan, with 1849 billion yuan for national bonds and 1112 billion yuan for local bonds. In the next week, the expected government bond net payment is 3985 billion yuan, with 2761 billion yuan for national bonds and 1224 billion yuan for local bonds. The net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday and Tuesday. As of 7/11, the net financing progress of national bonds is 56.7%, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 is about 2.89 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of new local bonds is 51.8%, with a remaining issuance space of 2.51 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of refinancing special bonds is 89.8%, with a remaining issuance space of 2041 billion yuan. The supply of government bonds accelerated in the second week of July, and the issuance pressure is relatively large in August and September of the third quarter [17][18][20]. 3.1.3 Bill Market - In the past week, bill interest rates showed a divergent trend, with the 3 - month bill interest rate rising and the 6 - month bill interest rate falling. Seasonally, the current bill interest rate trend is still significantly weaker than the seasonal level, indicating that the recovery of credit demand remains slow [25]. 3.1.4 Funds Review - Funds tightened slightly, showing a trend of first loosening, then slightly tightening, and finally relaxing. The funds were the loosest at the opening on 7/7 and the tightest at the opening on 7/10. Most fund interest rates increased, and the term and market stratifications mostly converged [27][30][31]. 3.1.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - In the past week (7/7 - 7/13), the total issuance of certificates of deposit was 4271 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 833.9 billion yuan. The issuance scale increased compared with the previous week, but the net financing scale declined. As of 7/13, the cumulative net financing of certificates of deposit for the whole year was 1.73 trillion yuan. The issuance weighted term decreased. In the next week, the maturity scale is 8028 billion yuan, and the maturity pressure is relatively large from Tuesday to Friday [50][55]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior Tracking 3.2.1 Secondary Market Transactions - The trading demand from trading desks has weakened, and the net buying of general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds by major non - bank buyers has decreased. Different types of bonds have different buying and selling situations among various institutions. For example, large banks' purchases of short - term national bonds have increased, and the net buying of credit bonds by major non - bank buyers has significantly decreased [61]. 3.2.2 Institutional Duration - The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds has oscillated upwards. The 10 - day moving average of the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds on 7/11 was 4.04 years, up from 3.96 years on 7/4. The secondary market trading duration of credit bonds showed mixed trends, with the 5 - day moving average of urban investment bond trading duration rising and that of Tier 2 capital bond trading duration falling [59][64]. 3.2.3 Institutional Leverage - The calculated bond market leverage ratio in the past week was 107.65%, a significant decrease compared with the previous week (107.96%) [66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, with few domestic and foreign positive factors, the market sentiment and liquidity are fair, and the stock index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern. - In the long - term, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further strengthen to support domestic demand. - The uncertainty of US tariff policies, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in overseas liquidity and geopolitical patterns will bring periodic trading opportunities for the stock index [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a 0.58bp increase, DR007 at 1.49 with a 1.78bp increase, GC001 at 1.16 with a 27.50bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 2.00bp decrease. SHBOR 3M closed at 1.56 with a 0.30bp decrease, and LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50. - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds closed at 1.37, 1.51, and 1.66 respectively, with increases of 1.25bp, 2.25bp, and 1.35bp. The 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.34 with an 8.00bp decrease. - The central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 57.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 32.8 billion yuan. This week, there are 652.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open - market operations, with 34 billion yuan maturing on Friday. The inter - bank market liquidity has further eased, and major repurchase rates have declined [4]. Stock Index Market - The closing prices of major stock indices on the previous day: CSI 300 at 4010 (up 0.47%), SSE 50 at 2757 (up 0.62%), CSI 500 at 2983 (up 0.50%), and CSI 1000 at 6407 (up 0.25%). The trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 18.2%, 32.7%, 3.7%, and 3.6% respectively, and the positions increased by 4.8%, 11.2%, 2.4%, and 3.5% respectively. - The previous day's trading volume in the two stock markets was 1.4942 trillion yuan, a slight reduction of 11 billion yuan. Most industry sectors rose, with real estate development, engineering consulting services, etc. leading the gains, and jewelry, shipbuilding leading the losses. - The expectation of real - estate policies resurfaced yesterday, and the "small essays" on real - estate significantly boosted the real - estate and building - materials sectors. It is rumored that a central urban work conference will be held next week, which may make policy arrangements for restarting the shantytown renovation [4]. Futures Contract Premium and Discount Situation - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods are provided, with some contracts showing premium and others showing discount [4].

Group 1 - The first Western Low Altitude Economy Expo will be held in Chongqing from July 11 to 13, focusing on low-altitude industry trends and establishing a comprehensive communication platform for the entire industry chain with over 200 participating entities including government units, leading companies, industry associations, and universities [1] Group 2 - On July 11, a total of 13 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked, with a total of 405 million shares and a market value of 7.674 billion yuan based on the latest closing price [2] - Among the companies, seven will have over 10 million shares unlocked, with Andar Technology, Hanbang High-tech, and Zhuoran Co. leading in unlock volume at 140 million shares, 89.2214 million shares, and 61.088 million shares respectively [2] - In terms of market value, seven companies will have over 100 million yuan unlocked, with Weike Technology, Zhili Fang, and Andar Technology leading at 3.652 billion yuan, 996 million yuan, and 866 million yuan respectively [2] Group 3 - On July 11, 20 companies announced 22 stock repurchase progress updates, with three companies disclosing repurchase plans for the first time and two plans approved by shareholders [3] - The highest repurchase plan amounts from newly disclosed plans are from Shantui Co., China National Materials, and Demingli, with proposed repurchase amounts of up to 300 million yuan, 83.2557 million yuan, and 67,100 yuan respectively [3] - Among the approved repurchase plans, Shengjian Technology and Shennong Group have the highest proposed repurchase amounts at 11.8195 million yuan, 2.379 million yuan, and 1.3885 million yuan respectively [3] Group 4 - A total of 34 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos will mature today, following a central bank operation on July 4 with an operation rate of 1.4% [4]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/7/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.31 | 0.01 | DR007 | 1.46 | -0.25 | | हूं | GC001 | 1.50 | 1.00 | GC007 | 1.52 | 1.50 | | E | SHBOR 3M | 1.57 | -0.90 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.36 | 1.00 | 5年期国债 | 1.48 | 0.85 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.64 | 0.35 | 10年期美债 | 0.00 | -435.00 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了690亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 755 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today, with a bidding amount of 755 billion yuan and a winning amount of 755 billion yuan [1] - The operation interest rate remains at 1.40%, unchanged from previous levels [1] - A total of 985 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos is set to mature today, indicating significant liquidity management by the central bank [1]