Core Viewpoint - The company, Asia Pacific Technology, is a significant supplier of aluminum materials in the automotive thermal management and lightweight sectors, focusing on high-performance aluminum alloy extrusion materials and components for various industrial applications [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Asia Pacific Technology is dedicated to providing high-strength, high-fatigue resistance, and high-corrosion resistance aluminum alloy extrusion materials and components [1] - The company has established a strong presence in high-end aluminum alloy material import substitution and has developed technologies for "aluminum replacing copper" and "aluminum replacing steel" [1] Group 2: Applications and Market Focus - The products of Asia Pacific Technology are widely used in automotive thermal management, aerospace, rail transportation, and also provide core corrosion-resistant aluminum alloy pipes for seawater desalination and liquefied natural gas (LNG) applications [1] - The company aims to continue focusing on market demand, enhancing material research and process innovation to strengthen its technical and market competitiveness in corrosion-resistant aluminum alloy pipes and other high-performance aluminum materials [1]

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 核心观点 从业资格证号：F3035632 沪铜 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 今日铜价震荡偏弱运行，持仓量变化不大。宏观层面，今日有色 板块维持震荡运行，铜表现相对偏弱。产业层面，现货贴水和近月 月差均维持弱势运行，产业现实端较弱。技术上，关注 9.2 万关口支 撑。 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 18 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜铝震荡偏弱 今日镍价减仓反弹明显。宏观层面，有色板块偏弱运行。产业层 面，现货升水持续走强，给予镍价支撑。短期镍空头了结意愿较强， 带动镍价反弹。预计镍价短期维持反弹态势，可关注 11.5 万关口压 力。 （仅供参考 ...

格隆汇12月18日丨亚太科技(002540.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司作为全球汽车热管理系统及轻量化领域 的重要铝材供应商，长期致力于为全球范围工业领域提供具有高强度、高抗疲劳、高耐腐蚀等综合性能 的中高端铝合金挤压材及部件的开发与制造。基于在高端铝合金材进口替代以及"铝代铜"、"铝代钢"方 面的技术积淀，公司产品已广泛应用于汽车热管理、航空航天、轨道交通等领域，同时还为海水淡化、 液化天然气领域提供核心的耐海水腐蚀铝合金管、"大型LNG绕管式换热器"用耐腐蚀铝换热管。面向未 来，公司将继续聚焦市场需求，深化材料研发与工艺创新，持续巩固并提升在耐腐蚀铝合金管材及其他 高性能铝材领域的技术与市场竞争力。 ...

董明珠对空调行业"铝代铜"的公开回应引发广泛关注，她强调格力坚持使用铜管的核心原因是铝材在长 期可靠性和技术保障上仍无法与铜媲美。 一、格力立场与技术争议 明确拒绝铝代铜 董明珠表示，铝在导热性（铜的导热系数约为铝的1.6倍）、耐腐蚀性（尤其酸性环境）及长期冷热循 环下的稳定性（铝膨胀系数高易导致焊口开裂）存在天然缺陷。尽管格力已研究铝代铜技术多年，但铝 材仍无法达到铜管同等质量保障，因此"不敢保证替代后的产品寿命"。 格力官方回应称，目前没有铝代铜计划，铜材在长期可靠性方面的优势是技术替代的前提。 铝材的技术瓶颈 成本与资源压力驱动 物理性能差距：铝的导热效率仅为铜的60%，需增大换热面积补偿；耐腐蚀性弱，潮湿环境易氧化；膨 胀系数高，长期冷热循环可能引发制冷剂泄漏。 验证不足：实验室数据与实际工况存在差异，铝管空调在极端环境（如高湿度、高盐雾）的长期可靠性 缺乏大规模市场验证。 二、行业联盟的推进动因 铜价高企：2025年铜价突破1万美元/吨，单台空调铜材成本占比达20%-30%，而铝价仅为铜的1/4，替 换后可降低单台成本约400元，对年销千万台的企业利润影响显著。 资源安全：中国铜资源进口依赖度超80 ...

Core Viewpoint - The home appliance industry is witnessing a rare trend of collaboration among major air conditioning companies to promote a self-regulatory convention regarding the use of aluminum in air conditioning systems, while Gree, a leading player, has not joined this initiative [2][4][14]. Industry Collaboration - Major brands such as Midea, Haier, and others have announced a self-regulatory convention to prohibit malicious attacks and promote the characteristics of aluminum heat exchanger air conditioners [2]. - Gree, traditionally a leader in the industry, has publicly stated it does not have plans to adopt aluminum in place of copper, citing concerns over aluminum's technical capabilities [2][11]. Market Reactions - Gree's stock price has risen despite the industry's shift towards aluminum, while the stocks of companies that joined the convention have shown volatility, indicating challenges in the widespread adoption of aluminum [5]. - The rising copper prices have led to increased costs for air conditioning manufacturers, prompting discussions about the potential benefits of switching to aluminum [6][10]. Cost Analysis - The cost of copper is significantly higher than aluminum, with copper prices reaching approximately 93,500 yuan per ton compared to aluminum at around 21,862.5 yuan per ton [7]. - The use of copper in air conditioning units accounts for about 26% to 33% of the total cost, with high-end models using up to 40% [9]. - If aluminum were to replace copper, Midea could save approximately 23.2 billion yuan, Gree 17.3 billion yuan, and Haier 12.4 billion yuan in costs [10]. Technical Considerations - Gree has expressed concerns about aluminum's durability and reliability, stating that aluminum components may have a shorter lifespan compared to copper, which could conflict with their commitment to a ten-year warranty [11][12]. - The industry consensus suggests that while aluminum can be used in non-pressurized components, it is not suitable for critical parts of the cooling system due to issues like corrosion and welding difficulties [11][12]. Consumer Perception - A significant portion of consumers (68%) prioritize whether an air conditioner is made of copper when making purchasing decisions, indicating that Gree's commitment to copper may enhance its brand perception [15]. - The push for aluminum in the industry is partly driven by government strategies to promote resource efficiency, but consumer trust in aluminum's performance remains a concern [14][16].

Group 1 - The copper market is experiencing a significant price increase, with LME three-month copper reaching a historical high of $11,952 per ton on December 12, and settling at $11,727 per ton by December 17 [1] - Major investment banks are bullish on copper prices, with Citigroup predicting a rise to $15,000 per ton by mid-next year, driven by strong demand from energy transition and artificial intelligence sectors [1][6] - The increase in copper prices is causing downstream pressure, with air conditioning companies indicating plans to raise prices to offset rising costs [1][3] Group 2 - The LME copper price has surged nearly 35% this year, primarily due to increased demand and a weakening US dollar, which makes copper cheaper for holders of other currencies [2] - Supply constraints are contributing to the price rise, with a 10% reduction in mining capacity signals from China's copper raw material negotiation group and increased cancellations of LME copper warehouse receipts raising concerns about future supply shortages [2] - Analysts predict that the copper market will remain tight, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a price increase to $11,400 per ton by 2026, citing a decrease in the likelihood of refined copper tariffs [5][6] Group 3 - The rising copper prices are pressuring manufacturers, leading companies like Meibo Group to announce price adjustments to alleviate cost pressures, with a 5% increase in prices effective December 16 [3] - Air conditioning manufacturers are exploring alternatives to copper, with 19 companies, including Haier and Midea, signing a self-regulatory agreement to promote aluminum heat exchangers as a cost-saving measure [4] - Analysts expect that the ongoing price increases will negatively impact energy-intensive industries, potentially compressing profit margins [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks. The price range is expected to be between 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Supply - side inventory increases and potential capacity expansion are putting pressure on prices, while the demand side is affected by weak Chinese data and substitution risks, and macro sentiment is dominated by the uncertainty of US non - farm payrolls and CPI data [3][62]. 3. Section Summaries Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The SHFE price of the main contract dropped slightly from 92,280 yuan/ton on December 15th to 91,870 yuan/ton on December 16th, a decline of 0.44%. The basis weakened as the discounts of premium copper, flat - priced copper, and wet - process copper deepened, and the LME(0 - 3) discount changed from 20.69 US dollars/ton on December 10th to - 4.39 US dollars/ton on December 15th [1][59]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME positions increased by 2,912 lots to 351,056 lots on December 15th, indicating an expansion in position volume. However, the SMM Yangshan copper premium market had a cold offer on December 16th, with weak spot trading and a contraction in trading volume [1][59]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: There is potential for increased supply. On December 15th, Nyrstar reached an agreement with Korea Zinc involving US mines and smelters, expected to be completed in 2026. Fortescue acquired Alta Copper Company, and Hubei Zeming's 50,000 - ton anode copper project is advancing. LME inventory increased from 42,226 tons on December 15th to 45,784 tons on December 16th, an increase of 8.43%, and COMEX inventory also rose, showing supply pressure [2][60]. - **Demand Side**: Demand is weak. China's industrial output and retail sales data were below expectations. Asia - Pacific Technology's "aluminum replacing copper" project in the home appliance field may substitute some copper demand. Although Xiaomi's Wuhan smart home appliance factory was put into operation and Gree Electric Appliance is developing robot parts, the SMM North China electrolytic copper market had low activity and strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment [2][60]. - **Inventory Side**: Overall inventory increased. LME and COMEX inventories rose, while SHFE inventory remained stable at 165,875 tons, suggesting a loose supply - demand pattern [2][61]. Price Trend Judgment It is expected that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side inventory increase and potential capacity expansion are pressuring prices, the demand side is affected by weak Chinese data and substitution risks, and macro sentiment is dominated by the uncertainty of US non - farm payrolls and CPI data. The copper price is expected to range between 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton [3][62].

最近，家电行业发生了一件引人关注的事。 在2025年底的一次行业技术会议上，海尔、美的、海信、TCL、奥克斯、小米这几家主要的空调企业， 共同推出了一个关于"铝代铜"的标准。简单说，就是这些厂家计划在空调的核心部件上，逐步用铝材料 来替代传统上使用的铜。 这个变化背后有直接的原因。空调的压缩机、散热器这些关键部件，长期以来主要用铜制造。因为铜的 导热性好，也耐腐蚀，这能保证空调的效率和耐用性。 不过，值得注意的是，行业里的另一家重要企业格力，并没有出现在这次联合制定标准的企业名单中。 格力方面之前曾表示过，对铝材料在长期使用中的耐久性和稳定性有所顾虑，因此态度比较谨慎，没有 轻易跟进。 这就带来了一个很实际的问题。如果未来市场上出现这样的情况：一边是多数品牌采用铝部件、价格更 有优势的空调；另一边是像格力这样坚持在核心部位多用铜、价格可能稍贵的空调。而两者都承诺十年 的质保，基础效果也差不多。作为消费者，到时候会怎么选？ 可能有人会更看重性价比，选择采用了新技术的产品；也有人会更信赖传统材料的可靠性，愿意为此多 付一些钱。这个选择，最终会由市场来决定。 说到底，无论材料是铝还是铜，对用户而言，最根本的永远是空 ...

Core Viewpoint - A collaboration among 19 air conditioning companies and research institutions has been initiated to implement "aluminum replacing copper" standards, sparking market discussions about material costs and future product offerings [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The rising cost of copper, which constitutes over half of the material cost in a household air conditioner, is a significant factor driving the shift towards aluminum [1] - The price difference between copper and aluminum is approximately three times, influencing manufacturers to consider alternative materials [1] Group 2: Company Responses - Some brands have indicated plans to launch aluminum-based household air conditioning products as early as 2026, while others have no current plans for "aluminum replacing copper" initiatives [1]

Core Viewpoint - A coalition of 19 air conditioning companies and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, has initiated the implementation of "aluminum replacing copper" standards, sparking market discussions [1] Industry Insights - The cost of copper constitutes over half of the material costs in a household air conditioner, with the price of copper rising significantly [1] - The price difference between copper and aluminum is approximately three times, with one ton of copper being much more expensive than aluminum [1] Company Developments - Some brands have indicated plans to launch aluminum-based household air conditioning products as early as 2026, while others have no current plans for "aluminum replacing copper" initiatives [1]