Group 1 - The report highlights that equity assets have shown strong performance, particularly in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets and technology growth sectors, while commodity performance has been mixed [2][5][11] - The correlation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has increased, while the negative correlation between A-shares and Chinese government bonds remains strong [2][11][12] - The risk premium level for A-shares has decreased for seven consecutive weeks, with the current level at 5.8%, indicating a slight increase in relative value compared to historical averages [16][19] Group 2 - In the equity market, the Asia-Pacific region has outperformed, with notable gains in technology growth stocks; for instance, the Hang Seng Technology Index surged by 5.5% [5][24][28] - Emerging markets in Asia, such as the A-share ChiNext Index and Korea's KOSDAQ, have also shown strong performance, with increases of 3.2% and 2.5% respectively [24][28] - In contrast, Latin American markets, including Brazil and Mexico, have faced continued pressure and declines [24][28] Group 3 - The report indicates that the Chinese bond yield curve is "bull steep," with a general downward trend in yields for longer maturities, while the U.S. bond yield curve is "bear steep," reflecting rising yields [46][50] - Specifically, the 10-year to 2-year yield spread in China has widened, indicating a bullish sentiment in the bond market [46][50] - In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield has increased to 4.47%, driven by inflation expectations, while the market anticipates a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [46][59] Group 4 - Commodity prices have shown overall increases, but with significant differentiation; for example, iron ore and natural rubber prices rose over 3%, while crude oil prices fell by 1.5% to 1.6% [63][64] - The report notes that the U.S. dollar continues to appreciate, although at a slower pace compared to previous weeks, with major currencies like the euro and yen depreciating against it [63][64] - Inventory levels for gold and silver have increased, contrary to the average declines seen over the past three years, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [64][71][75]

犹豫 ·理解 ·共识:16年供给侧改革三部曲 市场将"反内卷"视为新一轮供给侧改革,背后关注的核心是 2016年供给侧 * 结构性改革结束了 PPI 持续 3年的负增,在中期维度上影响了股债资产配置。 本轮"反内卷"政策若顺利推进,有望改善价格持续低迷的表现,可能对资产 配置产生重要影响,股债配置或将会向股市倾斜,股票市场过去两年持续占优 的哑铃策略可能会切换至核心资产为代表的大盘成长。 在悲观中诞生,在怀疑中成长,在乐观中成熟,在兴奋中筑顶。后视镜视角下 16-18年供给侧改革是很强的市场主线,但回到当时的背景下,市场不乏犹豫、 观望、理解、共识凝聚的过程。我们认为供给侧改革涉及央地关系调整,当前 市场关注的行业属性和所有制问题并非核心。 ts of ITE: 证券研究报告 【策略快评】 本文通过复盘 15-16年供给侧改革脉络,着重回答两个问题:1、政策什么时 候明确发力?2、股市、机构投资者什么时候反应? 政策何时明确发力:15/11 财经领导小组会议,背后是地方财政压力的缓解。 * 束略研究 策略快评 2025年07月21日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:姚佩 邮箱:yaopei@hcyjs.com 执 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing demand for stable returns in the context of low deposit rates, making high dividend yield indices, particularly the China Securities Dividend Low Volatility Index, a focal point for investors [1][11] - As of July 10, 2025, the China Securities Dividend Low Volatility Index reached a new high of 11,946.95 points, indicating strong performance in the current year [1] Group 2: Types of Dividend Indices - Dividend indices can be categorized into three main types: single-factor strategies, multi-factor strategies, and dividend + industry/theme strategies [2] - The single-factor strategy focuses solely on dividend yield, while the multi-factor strategy considers multiple factors such as dividend yield, volatility, quality, and growth [2] - The dividend + industry/theme strategy combines high dividend characteristics with specific industry or thematic focuses [2] Group 3: Advantages of the Dividend Low Volatility Index - The China Securities Dividend Low Volatility Index demonstrates strong risk resilience, with a maximum drawdown of -16.92% over the past five years, significantly lower than traditional dividend indices [3][4] - The index has a Sharpe ratio of 0.77 over the same period, indicating a superior risk-adjusted return compared to traditional dividend indices [5][6] - Since its inception, the index has achieved a cumulative return of 327.86%, outperforming traditional dividend indices and major broad market indices [6] - As of July 10, 2025, the index's 12-month dividend yield stands at 5.00%, well above the 10-year government bond yield of 1.66%, showcasing its attractive dividend characteristics [10] Group 4: Current Market Context - The current low deposit rate environment makes the high dividend yield of the Dividend Low Volatility Index particularly appealing to investors seeking asset appreciation [11] - Recent capital market reforms are expected to enhance dividend payouts from listed companies, further increasing the attractiveness of the Dividend Low Volatility Index [12] - Long-term capital, such as insurance funds, is increasingly favoring high dividend assets, creating a favorable environment for the Dividend Low Volatility Index [13] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF, such as the Taikang Dividend Low Volatility ETF (code: 560150), offers investors a convenient way to access high-quality dividend low volatility assets, with quarterly dividends enhancing cash returns [14]

Group 1 - The fund aims for long-term stable appreciation of assets while strictly controlling risks through reasonable allocation of equity and debt [2][3] - The fund's investment strategy involves dynamic asset allocation based on macroeconomic analysis and market conditions, focusing on high liquidity investments during the open period [2][3] - The fund's performance benchmark is set at 90% of the China Bond Credit Bond Total Wealth Index return and 10% of the CSI 300 Index return [4] Group 2 - As of the end of the reporting period, the total fund shares amounted to 1,536,261,029.89 shares [2][6] - The fund's net value growth rate for the past three months was 1.20%, while the benchmark return was 1.08% [12] - The fund's asset allocation included 88.32% in bonds and 11.12% in asset-backed securities, with no holdings in stocks [13][14] Group 3 - The fund manager has been managing the fund since November 3, 2023, with a focus on fixed income [8] - The fund has maintained compliance with relevant laws and regulations, ensuring fair treatment of all investors [10][11] - The fund's investment decisions are based on a thorough analysis of the financial and operational status of the issuers of the securities held [15]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing bond investment by rural commercial banks (RCBs) is a response to the ongoing "asset shortage" trend, with RCBs becoming a significant force in the bond market as they prefer to use idle funds for bond investments rather than lending [1][2][3] Group 1: Bond Investment Trends - RCBs are increasingly investing in bonds due to limited financial investment options, with bond holdings generally accounting for 20%-35% of their total assets [3][4] - Major RCBs like Dongguan RCB and Chongqing RCB have bond investment ratios exceeding 30%, while others like Jiangnan RCB and Hangzhou United RCB have lower ratios around 14.76% and 16.54% respectively [4] - The bond investment strategy includes a preference for interbank certificates of deposit, government bonds, local government bonds, policy financial bonds, and urban investment bonds, with a particular interest in long-term government bonds for 2024 [1][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Regulatory Environment - The bond market has remained stable, with banks holding a significant portion of government bonds (70%) and corporate credit bonds (20%), which supports fiscal policy and economic development [7][8] - There is a debate on whether to reduce the bond holding ratio of rural financial institutions, with some experts suggesting that maintaining a reasonable level of bond investment is essential for stability [2][8] - The average bond investment ratio among 379 RCBs has increased from 20% in 2022 to 22% in 2023, indicating a trend towards higher bond investments [8] Group 3: Future Investment Directions - If bond investments are curtailed, RCBs may struggle to find alternative investment options, as they have limited capacity to invest in equities or asset-backed securities (ABS) [5][6] - The regulatory environment varies across regions, affecting the types of bonds RCBs can invest in, with many still facing restrictions on equity investments [6] - The potential impact of reducing bond investments on the market is considered manageable, with a significant reduction unlikely given the current regulatory stance [8]

Group 1 - The global capital markets in 2025 are characterized by uncertainty due to fluctuating interest rates from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks, leading to increased volatility in equity and bond markets [1] - Asset allocation is becoming the primary strategy for investors to cope with market uncertainties, as the risk resilience of single assets is declining [1][2] - The volatility of single asset investments has been significant, with the maximum drawdown of the Wind All A Index exceeding 29% and the QDII fund index over 17% in the past three years [2] Group 2 - Liu Xin emphasizes four core principles for asset allocation: understandable expected returns, controllable volatility, transparent structure, and executable long-term investment [3] - FOF (Fund of Funds) products are gaining traction in China as a new investment tool, allowing for diversified and optimized asset allocation through the selection of various funds [4][5] - The advantages of FOF investments include strategy complementarity, risk management through diversification, and professional management by experienced teams [5] Group 3 - There are two prevailing views on FOF products: one focuses on concentrated allocations for short-term excess returns, while the other aims for long-term stable returns [6] - Liu Xin advocates for the latter approach, emphasizing the need for public funds to expand their scale and provide a stable investment experience for a broader audience [6][7] - The future layout of FOF products will focus on absolute return goals and diversified allocation to meet investors' needs for steady growth [6][7] Group 4 - Liu Xin defines investment risk as comprising volatility and value loss, distinguishing between market sentiment-driven price fluctuations and fundamental deterioration [8] - The investment strategy should focus on long-term probability rather than short-term market predictions, with successful investments relying on proper asset allocation [8] - Liu Xin believes that the transparency and reliability of fund product returns are crucial for investor confidence and long-term holding [9] Group 5 - Current market conditions favor Chinese assets, with A-shares at historical low valuations and an upward trend, while U.S. assets are at high valuations with potential risks [9]

2025 年 07 月 20 日 英伟达称将重新对华出口 H20，中 美股市情绪指标维持乐观 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250711-20250718) 证 券 研 究 相关研究 - 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 涂锦文 A0230525070006 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 大 类 资 产 配 置 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 大类资产配置 ⚫ 本周（20250711–20250718）7 月 16 日，英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋透露英伟达将获准重新对华出口 H20 的 GPU。该消息大幅提振了香港股市 ...

Group 1: US Stock Market - The US stock market is expected to experience a "slight upward fluctuation" in the second half of the year, with weaker gains compared to the first half, influenced by three core variables: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, fundamental performance, and bond yield fluctuations [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with potential cuts in September and December, which could support risk assets in Q4 [1] - Market volatility may arise from disappointing earnings during the mid-year reporting season and trade war risks, while a rate cut in Q4 could increase upward momentum [1] Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market is entering a "certain slow bull" phase, driven by low interest rates, wealth reallocation, policy guidance, and significant events, with a high probability of reaching new highs since September 24 of the previous year [3][4] - The low interest rate environment creates a reallocation demand for the 160 trillion yuan in household savings, favoring value assets and enhancing market risk appetite [4] - Structural opportunities include focusing on value stocks in finance, upstream materials, and companies benefiting from globalization, as well as growth stocks in technology and new consumption sectors [5] Group 3: Anti-Internalization Policy - The anti-internalization policy is a long-term theme in economic transformation, expected to unfold in three phases: policy expectation-driven phase, implementation phase with market divergence, and a main market phase with accelerated mergers and acquisitions [6][7] - The current phase has seen leading stocks in overcapacity industries like photovoltaic and cement begin to respond to policy expectations [6] Group 4: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a "long summer" bull market, with strong performance expected in the second half, driven by national empowerment, market ecosystem optimization, and inflow of incremental capital [8][9] - The market is transitioning from an "offshore market" to "onshore" with diversified investment needs revealing opportunities in small and medium-sized growth stocks [9] Group 5: Asset Allocation - In terms of asset allocation, stocks are recommended as the first choice, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks offering better value than US stocks, benefiting from their respective market conditions [10] - Long-term outlook for gold and digital assets is positive, with gold expected to break through $3,500 per ounce, while digital assets may be affected by US bond yields [10]

在本次闭门会上，程坦老师将重点分析稳定币的来龙去脉，港元稳定币能否破局，并前瞻背后的机会与风险。本次会议还会研判美国大美丽法案 通过对美国经济的影响，分析美国下半年的经济基本面和关税影响，并展望2025下半年全球资产配置，帮大家看清全球资产大趋势、理清思路。 程坦老师是坦途宏观（GMF Research）创始人兼研究总监，北京大学光华管理学院金融学博士，曾任国家外汇管理局中央外汇业务中心（外汇储 备）高级经济学家，资产配置部副总裁，在《管理世界》等期刊上发表多篇学术论文，研究报告多次获党中央、国务院批示。GMF Research是一 家专注于海外宏观和大类资产研究的独立研究机构，为机构与个人订阅者提供一站式投研服务，目前拥有近两千名个人用户，机构客户覆盖国内 数十家头部资产管理机构和私募基金。 此次分享的详细议题请见以下活动海报，感兴趣的朋友可点击下图加入Alpha闭门私享会会员。 2025年7月17日，当地时间美国众议院悉数通过了《指导与建立美元稳定币国家创新法案》（简称《GENIUS法案》）《2025 数字资产市场清晰法 案》（简称《CLARITY 法案》）、《反 CBDC 监控国家法案》（Anti-CB ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reduction in household wealth in China, primarily attributed to the decline in real estate prices, and emphasizes the need for a shift in asset allocation strategies in response to the current economic environment characterized by deflation [2][3][4][15]. Group 1: Wealth Reduction - Household wealth in China has decreased from 400 trillion RMB to 300 trillion RMB, resulting in a loss of approximately 100 trillion RMB [2]. - The primary source of this wealth loss is the decline in real estate prices [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators show a downward trend: the Producer Price Index (PPI) has dropped by 3.3%, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased by 3.6% [5]. - The simultaneous decline in both indices indicates a broader trend of economic tightening [6]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Misconceptions - Many individuals are making incorrect asset allocation decisions due to a lack of experience with deflationary periods [7][8]. - The current economic environment is characterized by negative real interest rates, where holding cash is less beneficial compared to leveraging debt to acquire assets [12][13]. Group 4: Historical Context and Lessons - Historical examples from Japan, the U.S., and South Korea illustrate how certain groups managed to maintain or grow their wealth during prolonged deflationary periods [17]. - The article suggests that understanding the importance of savings and adjusting asset allocation strategies is crucial for navigating the current economic transition [17][30]. Group 5: Structural Economic Issues - There is a structural contradiction in the economy where older generations hold wealth but have declining consumption capacity, while younger generations lack wealth and purchasing power [21][22]. - This disparity complicates the resolution of the current economic challenges and may require significant policy changes to redistribute wealth [24]. Group 6: Recommended Asset Strategies - It is advised to maintain a significant portion of household wealth (60% to 80%) in low-risk, stable income-generating assets to weather the deflationary environment [33]. - The focus should be on preserving capital rather than chasing high-risk returns during this period [34].