Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday (December 24), most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with precious metals leading the gains, while shipping futures led the declines. Industrial and agricultural products mostly rose. The overall market showed different trends in various sectors, and the future trends depend on multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Market Performance - On December 24, most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Precious metals had significant gains, with silver rising 8.12% and palladium and platinum hitting the daily limit. Energy materials, basic metals, chemicals, and other sectors mostly rose, while shipping futures declined, with the container shipping index (European line) dropping 1.63% [1]. - The overall commodity index rose 0.97%, from 2294.47 on December 23 to 2316.76 on December 24 [1]. Sector Analysis - **Black - series**: Most black - series commodities rose. Due to weak terminal demand, the futures prices of finished products fluctuated with market sentiment and related varieties in the industry chain. The steel market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with the domestic macro - policy in a window period, and the growth rates of industries such as real estate and infrastructure continuing to decline. The overall fundamentals lack effective driving factors, and the market is likely to fluctuate within a range, with attention paid to macro - policy changes [1]. - **Basic metals**: All basic metals rose. The copper market's tight ore situation continued, and there were concerns about the possible spread to the smelting end. The hot precious - metal market also drove the copper price. Lithium carbonate continued to rise, reaching a two - year high. The recent rapid increase was due to supply - side interference, and the market interpreted the news of the first environmental assessment information publicity stage of the Xiawo lithium mine as slower - than - expected resumption of production. With short - term supply pressure relieved, downstream demand remaining resilient, and optimistic market sentiment spreading, the futures price of lithium carbonate remained strong [1]. - **Energy and chemical products**: Most energy and chemical products rose. International oil prices rose for the third consecutive day, and the SC crude oil main contract fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher. In the future, although the oversupply of crude oil is a general trend, the US blockade of Venezuela has alleviated the oversupply pressure to some extent, and other geopolitical factors have also emerged. It is reasonable to estimate a risk premium of about $3 for the current oil price, and the future oil price is likely to fluctuate [1]. - **Oilseeds and oils**: Most oilseeds and oils rose. Due to position adjustment before the Christmas holiday, US soybeans rebounded slightly, but the market was still cautious about the export sales speed of US soybeans, and the expected high - yield in South America also restricted the rise of US soybean prices. The domestic market was in a shock - adjustment state. The supply side of US soybeans is waiting for the January USDA report to finalize production, and the main logic has shifted to the demand side. The short - term trend is likely to remain weak. On Wednesday, oils fluctuated higher, and rapeseed oil led the oils to rebound from the low level. The domestic oil market continued to build a bottom, following the international oil market. Rapeseed oil is still in the process of destocking, which led to a significant increase in the near - month contract. In contrast, palm oil and soybean oil faced selling pressure at high levels, and the market may fluctuate at low levels repeatedly without new positive news, and capital games may intensify [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Views - PVC is affected by macro - sentiment and rebounds, with a slight improvement in supply - demand. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the improvement in supply - demand is limited. Attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - policy dynamics [3] - The current spot price of caustic soda is mainly stable with regional differentiation. Shandong is destocking while Jiangsu is accumulating inventory. The supply - side operating rate is slightly down, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine, device dynamics, and the implementation of specific macro anti - involution rules [4][5] Group 3: Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,781 yuan/ton (+43), the East China basis is - 301 yuan/ton (-3), and the South China basis is - 281 yuan/ton (+7) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,480 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,500 yuan/ton (+50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (-30), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+24), the production gross profit of PVC by calcium carbide method is - 986 yuan/ton (+116), the production gross profit of PVC by ethylene method is - 469 yuan/ton (+51), and the PVC export profit is - 6.0 US dollars/ton (-5.1) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 32.9 million tons (-1.6), the social inventory of PVC is 51.1 million tons (-0.7), the operating rate of PVC by calcium carbide method is 77.01% (-2.12%), the operating rate of PVC by ethylene method is 74.06% (-2.61%), and the overall operating rate of PVC is 76.12% (-2.27%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 76.2 million tons (+11.4) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,250 yuan/ton (+31), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 0 yuan/ton (-31) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 720 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,140 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,229 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 585.0 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 226.96 yuan/ton (+20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 393.99 yuan/ton (+53.60) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 46.47 million tons (+0.76), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.51 million tons (+0.06), and the operating rate of caustic soda is 84.50% (-1.70%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operating rate of alumina is 85.00% (-1.11%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 62.06% (-0.68%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.62% (+0.00%) [2] Group 4: Market Analysis PVC - Macro - level policies boost demand expectations, and PVC rebounds due to macro - sentiment. The supply decreases slightly, but the supply side is still abundant. The downstream operation declines slightly, and the export orders are resilient. The social inventory decreases slightly, and the upstream comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit is repaired to some extent. The high - level warehouse receipts suppress the futures price. Overseas factory news provides some support [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable with regional differences. Shandong is destocking and Jiangsu is accumulating inventory. The supply - side operating rate decreases slightly, but the overall operation is at a high level. The liquid chlorine price is positive, and there is a risk of further decline. The alumina demand is stable, and the non - aluminum demand weakens [4][5] Group 5: Strategies PVC - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [6] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [6]

Group 1 - The central bank announced a 400 billion MLF operation on December 25, with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion MLF in December due to 300 billion MLF maturing, marking the 10th consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1] - CITIC Securities indicated that the Central Economic Work Conference outlined key directions for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the importance of tapping potential and strengthening internal capabilities, with a focus on infrastructure investment and consumption stimulation to drive economic recovery [1] - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at 5.5%, with expectations for further improvement in 2026, highlighting the significance of the continuity and effectiveness of policies to support the bond market [1] Group 2 - The benchmark government bond ETF (511100) has a latest scale of 11.258 billion [2] - The credit bond ETF fund (511200) has a latest scale of 17.649 billion [2] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETF (551550) has a latest scale of 15.133 billion [2]

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期延续偏强运行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 12 月 19 日独立焦企焦炭库存增加 3.78 万吨 91.1 万吨，钢 厂焦炭库存则下降 1.55 万吨至 633.73 万吨，因港口焦炭库存减少 9.15 万吨， 焦炭综合库存下降 0.71%至 964.28 万吨,同比增幅回落至 4.93%。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均盈利 16 元/吨；山西准一级焦平均盈 利 35 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 65 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-23 元/吨， 河北准一级焦平均盈利 66 元/吨。 下游需求，247 家钢厂盈利率较上周持平，高炉开工率环比下降 0.16%至 78.47%，高炉炼铁产能利用率减少 0.99%至 84.93%，日均铁水产量较上周减少 2.65 万吨至 226.55 万吨，为今年 2 月份以来最低值，同比去年减少 2.86 万吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【期现行情】 期货盘面：05 焦炭开盘 1741，收盘 1746，减仓 552 手，短 ...

Report Summary of Iron Ore 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Macro drivers are weakening, and the fundamentals of the industrial chain have improved. However, the decline in domestic iron ore demand has exceeded expectations, and the supply side is generally stable with a slight increase. It is expected that the port inventory will tend to accumulate overall. In the short term, the market trading focus has shifted to the reality, and the upside potential of prices is limited. However, restocking demand may support prices, and the market will mainly fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has decreased slightly compared to the previous week. Among them, the shipment from Australia has declined slightly, and the shipment from Brazil has remained basically stable. According to seasonal patterns and the shipment targets of major mines this year, major mines will have a phased rush at the end of the year, and the weekly shipment volume will increase month - on - month. In terms of the arrival volume, it remains at a moderately high level in the short term and is higher than the same period last year, and the support from the supply side is weak [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has continued to decline rapidly, and the weakening of demand has exceeded expectations. Based on the current production reduction efforts and restart plans, the molten iron volume may be close to the lowest level. The main reasons are the combined effects of environmental protection restrictions and annual maintenance. The daily average molten iron this period is 226.55 million tons, a decrease of 2.65 million tons compared to the previous period, and the absolute level of molten iron continues to be lower than the same period last year [3]. Inventory - The imported inventory at the steel mill end remains at a low level. The steel mill inventory this period has decreased compared to the previous period and is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. High prices have suppressed the willingness to restock. Currently, the restocking actions of steel mills are weak. Later, attention will be paid to when the restocking of US - dollar goods by steel mills will be fully launched. Port inventory has continued to accumulate, mainly because the arrival volume has remained at a relatively high level. It is expected that the port inventory will still tend to accumulate in December [3]. Price - The price operates within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore is in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Strategy - Operate within a range and use covered call options [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The report suggests paying attention to macro - policy, downstream demand, macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - **Logic**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival, with an estimated impact on the total building steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year. The finished products market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2][3] - **Viewpoint**: The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policy and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingots - **Logic**: Overseas data has increased the optimistic sentiment towards interest rate cuts, providing macro - level support. Domestically, for domestic bauxite, the northern resumption is slow and the supply is unstable, but the alumina plant's inventory has reached a high level, so the price may decline. For imported bauxite, Guinea's shipping volume is high and a large mining project is resuming production, which will support future supply. The aluminum price rose yesterday, and with the improvement of Xinjiang's shipping and a large number of arrivals this week, along with environmental protection restrictions affecting downstream processing enterprises, the receiving sentiment weakened on Monday. The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased [2][3] - **Viewpoint**: The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4] - **Later Concerns**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine resumption, and consumption release [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - For成材, it is expected to be in a state of shock and consolidation. With a pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices. The later focus is on macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. - For铝锭, it is expected to be in a short - term strong shock state. Overseas data has further boosted the optimistic sentiment towards interest rate cuts, and the macro sentiment is favorable. However, the domestic off - season has arrived, the inventory trend is volatile, and high prices suppress consumption. Attention should be paid to macro guidance and mine - end news [3][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog 成材 - **Production Suspension Impact**: Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival production suspension is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different production suspension plans, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension period [3][4]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [4]. - **Price Trend**: Yesterday, it continued to decline in shock, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down [4]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to be in a state of shock and consolidation. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. 铝锭 - **Macro Situation**: Overseas data has further boosted the optimistic sentiment towards interest rate cuts. In November, the US consumer price increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, with a favorable macro sentiment [3]. - **Domestic Raw Material Situation**: For domestic ore, the resumption of production in the north is slow, and the supply is unstable. However, the alumina plant's bauxite inventory has reached an absolute high of 54.546 million tons, and the domestic ore price is expected to decline. For imported ore, the shipment volume from Guinea is still high, and a large - scale mining project has resumed production, with shipments expected to resume from January [4]. - **Downstream Processing Situation**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5% last week, continuing the weak operation in the off - season. Different industries have different situations, such as the stable operation of the primary aluminum alloy industry, the significant pressure on the aluminum plate and strip industry, the weak decline of the aluminum cable industry, and the weak operation of the aluminum profile industry in the short term [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: On December 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 600,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous Monday [4]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to be in a short - term strong shock state. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference outlines the policy direction for the upcoming economic work, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive macro policies to enhance demand, optimize supply, and ensure stable employment and market expectations, aiming for qualitative and reasonable quantitative economic growth in 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The conference stresses the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, while addressing local fiscal difficulties to ensure basic public services [2] - It highlights the importance of central fiscal responsibilities in infrastructure and public service provision to optimize government debt structure and reduce macro debt costs [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The conference calls for the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, suggesting that China's monetary policy can be more relaxed in the context of a global interest rate reduction cycle [4] - It emphasizes the need to optimize and innovate structural monetary policy tools to support economic restructuring and transformation [4] Group 3: Focus on Livelihood and Investment - The proactive macro policies should enhance the "livelihood content" and leverage of fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on improving public services in healthcare, education, and elderly care [5] - There is a call to increase effective investment in infrastructure and support emerging sectors such as digital economy and green energy, with appropriate fiscal incentives [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent State Council meeting led by Premier Li Qiang, focusing on the implementation of economic policies for the upcoming year, emphasizing the need for effective coordination among government departments to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2][3]. Economic Policy Implementation - The meeting highlighted the commitment to a more proactive macroeconomic policy in the coming year, with an emphasis on an expansionary fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - It is expected that the fiscal policy will continue the "debt-for-investment" approach, with a focus on issuing special refinancing bonds and special bonds for project construction [4][5]. - The anticipated issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds will occur in the first two quarters to alleviate local government debt pressures [5]. Fiscal Measures - The new special bond quota is projected to be 5 trillion yuan, with approximately 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for debt clearance and 2.9 trillion yuan for project construction, which will accelerate in the second quarter [5]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds may increase to 1.8 trillion yuan, starting in the second quarter, to work in tandem with special bonds [5]. VAT Law Implementation - The meeting approved the draft implementation regulations for the Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law, which is set to take effect on January 1, 2026 [6][7]. - The VAT rates will remain at 13%, 9%, and 6%, with a zero rate for certain conditions, ensuring stability in tax revenue and fiscal governance [7].

来源：兰格钢铁网 宏观政策落地，前期利好影响已充分吸收，市场情绪随之走弱。国内方面，重要会议后市场对短期强刺 激政策的预期降温。海外方面，美联储降息的利好已被消化。钢铁出口新政引发的"抢出口"效应，在短 期内创造了额外需求，加速了库存去化。海南自贸港全岛封关运作启动，长期利好贸易。印尼2026计划 镍矿石产量约为2.5亿吨，较2025年3.79亿吨的产量目标大幅下降，旨在防止镍价进一步下跌。12月19 日，沪镍主力合约涨幅...... 兰格不锈钢卷日盘点：消息面点燃涨势 弱现实制约高度 ...