新华社权威速览 -- 2025年中央经济工作会议 1层 明年经济工作 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在 北京举行。习近平总书记出席会议并发表 重要讲话,总结2025年经济工作,分析当 前经济形势,部署2026年经济工作。 "十四五"即将圆满收官 今年是很不平凡的一年。以习近平 同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全 国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏,坚 定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量 发展,统筹国内国际两个大局,实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策,经济社会 发展主要目标将顺利完成。我国经济 顶压前行、向新向优发展,现代化产 业体系建设持续推进,改革开放迈出 新步伐,重点领域风险化解取得积极 进展,民生保障更加有力。过去5年, 我们有效应对各种冲击挑战,推动党 和国家事业取得新的重大成就,"十 四五"即将圆满收官,第二个百年奋 斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 做好新形势下经济工作 新的认识和体会 必须充分挖掘经济潜能 必须坚持政策支持和改革创新 并举 必须做到既"放得活"又"管 得好" 必须坚持投资于物和投资于人 紧密结合 必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战 明年经济工作的 总体要求 要以习近平新时代中国特色社会 主义思想为指导 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasized the implementation of a more proactive macro policy to ensure stable economic operation, continuing with a more active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [1][2] - The policy direction for next year focuses on maintaining stability while seeking progress, enhancing quality and efficiency, and increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to improve macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1] - The conference highlighted the importance of maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, indicating a commitment to a proactive fiscal policy that will further enhance the effectiveness of fiscal measures [1] Group 2 - In terms of monetary policy, the conference outlined that promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery will be key considerations, with flexible use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The arrangements reflect continuity and stability in macro policies, which are beneficial for stabilizing social expectations and boosting market confidence [2] - The focus on financial support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises is expected to optimize funding allocation and enhance the internal driving force for high-quality development [2]

稳中求进，修炼内功 [Table_Authors] 刘姜枫(分析师) 政策基调总体温和，下调对外风险评价，重视短期的扩大内需和中长期的"内功" 修炼。 投资要点： | 021-38031032 | | --- | | liujiangfeng@gtht.com | | | 邵睿思(研究助理) | | --- | --- | | | 010-83939827 | | | shaoruisi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125070011 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 核心 CPI 同比维持高位 2025.12.10 出口：动能修复，但基数将升 2025.12.08 内需主导，提质增效 2025.12.08 美联储降息：或踩刹车 2025.11.21 收入增速升，支出需加码 2025.11.17 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 ——2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议学习体会 ...

杨志勇表示，明年我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，这和今年的财政政策取向一以贯之，财政在国 家治理中的基础和重要支柱作用将得到进一步发挥。"加强财政科学管理"等安排，将更充分地释放和提 升财政政策效能，更好护航经济运行、推动经济增长目标的实现。 在货币政策方面，会议也作出明确安排："把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考 量""灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具""引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业 等重点领域"…… "这些安排展现出宏观政策的连续性、稳定性，有利于稳定社会预期，提振市场信心。"在清华大学国家 金融研究院院长田轩看来，适度宽松的货币政策有助于保持社会融资条件相对宽松，也可以更大程度上 配合好更加积极的财政政策，增强宏观政策取向一致性和有效性。 做好明年经济工作，政策取向备受关注。会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提 质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 "明年的政策取向释放出'更加积极有为'的鲜明信号。"中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇表示，宏观政策 加大调控力度，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，将更 ...

宏 观 研 究 —— 12 月中央经济工作会议学习理解 事件：新华社北京 12 月 11 日电，中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。 会议在基调上有何亮点？针对新形势提出五个"必须"、强调"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"等 2025 年中央经济工作会议针对新形势提出五个"必须"，与 2024 年五个"统筹"形成逻辑呼应，延续并 深化了经济工作的规律性认识。五个"必须"具体为：必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革 创新并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内 功应对外部挑战。与 2024 年会议提出的五个"统筹"为对比， 2025 年会议更突出经济潜能挖掘与政策、 改革的协同发力，同时强化内需稳定性保障，政策导向更贴合当前发展形势。 会议分析经济形势时指出，我国"老问题、新挑战仍然不少"，并突出强调"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"， 精准聚焦当前核心痛点。2024 年会议中提出的问题更侧重需求侧，即"国内需求不足，部分企业生产经营 困难，群众就业增收面临压力"。2025 年会议则直指当前供给相对偏强而需求不足的现状，既契合 PPI、 CPI 持续疲 ...

2026年经济怎么干？大量资金将流向哪里？老百姓生活会有哪些改变？ 这场重磅会议提出的一系列举措，直接关系居民和企业的钱袋子。 会议总结成绩，分析形势，为2026年经济工作划定路线图。 看总基调，依然坚持"稳中求进"，同时强调"提质增效"。 12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工作会议，就是最清晰的风向标。 制定实施城乡居民增收计划；推动投资止跌回稳；引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微 企业等重点领域；加紧清理拖欠企业账款…… 看宏观政策，更加积极的财政政策、适度宽松的货币政策将持续发力。 看具体部署，明确提出八项重点任务。 所有谋划都指向一个目标："十五五"取得良好开局，让经济稳得住、百姓得实惠、发展有后劲。 提出"五个必须" 开局之年，做好经济工作至关重要。 对于做好新形势下经济工作，会议总结了"五个必须"： 扩大内需是重头戏 必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚 持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。 清华大学中国发展规划研究院常务副院长董煜对三里河表示，这既是对今年工作的总结，同时又是对下 一步工作的指引，既是经 ...

【大河财立方 记者 陈诗昂】中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，总结2025年经济工作，分 析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。 强大国内市场放在2026年重点工作首位 三大政策基调未变， 将提振市场信心 他进一步解释说，首先，目标财政赤字率预计会保持在4.0%，不会进一步上调。背后是2025年该指标 已经较大幅度上调1个百分点，节奏上需要稳一下，留出观察时间。不过，由于我国名义GDP规模扩 大，明年目标财政赤字率不变，但赤字规模会有所扩大。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，关于2026年的宏观政策安排，会议显示三大政策基调没有变，包括 更加积极有为的宏观政策，更加积极的财政政策，适度宽松的货币政策。"这显示宏观政策保持很强的 连续性、稳定性，将有效稳定社会预期，提振市场信心。" 其次，2026年新增专项债额度有望在今年4.4万亿基础上进一步扩大，主要是当前专项债资金用途拓 宽，而2026年基建投资稳增长需求会高于今年，因此专项债增发的必要性较强。 另外，视经济实际运行情况，2026年四季度有可能继续盘活地方债务结存限额。2026年超长期特别国债 发行规模将在今年基础上进一步扩大。他分析，一方 ...

CPI Analysis - In November 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, marking the highest level since March 2024[4] - The CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, primarily influenced by non-food prices[4] - Food prices turned positive, contributing positively to the CPI, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 14.5%[15] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained stable at a 1.2% year-on-year increase, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months[15] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with a slight widening of the decline by 0.1 percentage points[12] - Month-on-month, PPI increased by 0.1%, marking two consecutive months of growth[20] - Key sectors such as black metal mining and coal mining saw a narrowing of price declines, while oil extraction and processing experienced expanded price drops[22] Economic Policy Implications - The low CPI and PPI levels create room for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased fiscal measures and moderate monetary easing[5] - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need for stronger counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to promote effective qualitative and reasonable quantitative economic growth[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-U.S. policies[6]

Core Viewpoint The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to enhance economic stability and growth, focusing on expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and ensuring a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy Adjustments - The conference highlights the importance of increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to improve macroeconomic governance efficiency [2] - It is suggested that fiscal and monetary policies should work in tandem, with a focus on both existing and new policies to achieve stable growth and quality improvement [2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - A more proactive fiscal policy is to be implemented, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels while optimizing expenditure structures [3] - Recommendations include raising the deficit rate to 4.5%-5% by 2026, with a broad deficit scale exceeding 16 trillion yuan [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The conference calls for a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic growth [4] - It is anticipated that there may be 1-2 rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and avoiding excessive asset price fluctuations [4] Group 4: Domestic Market Development - Emphasis is placed on building a strong domestic market, enhancing consumption, and optimizing the supply of quality goods and services [7] - The government aims to stimulate investment and improve the management of local government special bonds to invigorate private investment [7] Group 5: Innovation and Technology - The conference stresses the importance of innovation-driven growth, particularly in artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies [9] - Policies will be implemented to support high-value service industries and enhance the role of enterprises in innovation [9] Group 6: Capital Market Reforms - Continuous reforms in the capital market are highlighted, with a focus on enhancing the investment environment for long-term capital [10] - The aim is to improve the adaptability of listing standards for emerging industries and promote long-term investment products [10] Group 7: Green Transition - The conference outlines a commitment to a comprehensive green transition, focusing on energy efficiency and carbon reduction initiatives [13] - Plans include strengthening the carbon emissions trading market and promoting the use of renewable energy [13] Group 8: Real Estate Market Stability - The need to stabilize the real estate market is emphasized, with strategies to control inventory and improve supply [14] - The government aims to reform the housing provident fund system and promote the construction of quality housing [14]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced volatility with a "V-shaped" reversal on Wednesday, driven by a surge in a leading real estate company's stock, which boosted market sentiment [2][10] - The current market is characterized by technical resistance above and policy support below, indicating a likely path of repeated fluctuations and potential upward movement [2][10] - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows a 0.7% year-on-year increase in CPI for November, suggesting marginal improvement in domestic demand [2][10] Sector Analysis Precious Metals - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, attributed to factors such as the onset of a Fed rate cut cycle, increased geopolitical tensions, and strong demand from global central banks [6] - The weakening dollar and inflation concerns have led investors to view gold as a hedge against inflation, with rising demand for gold in technology applications further supporting this trend [6] Hainan Free Trade Zone - Stocks related to the Hainan Free Trade Zone were notably active, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up. The upcoming full island closure operation on December 18 is expected to enhance market activity [7] - The new policies will allow for freer movement of goods within Hainan while maintaining controlled access from the mainland, which is anticipated to benefit related stocks [7] Real Estate - The real estate sector experienced a rebound, driven by the upcoming discussion on debt restructuring for a leading real estate company and ongoing supportive policies from the government [8] - The industry is expected to see a gradual alleviation of risks, with a focus on high-quality companies that have strong land reserves and are returning to stable growth [8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on low-entry opportunities across various sectors, including technology growth (semiconductors, AI themes, robotics), cyclical industries (solar, batteries, chemicals), and dividend stocks (banks, utilities) [3][10] - It is recommended to select stocks with strong earnings support while avoiding high-valuation stocks lacking performance backing [3][10]