美元兑日元卖盘推动汇价向147.69的20日简单移动平均线迈进，随后又跌破了147.50关口。随着交易日 接近尾声，该货币对在147.50下方企稳。 目前投资者对日本央行年底前加息的预期概率仅为70%，反映出市场对货币政策正常化进程的疑虑。日 本央行在7月政策会议上未释放明确的紧缩信号，进一步加剧了日元的疲软走势。市场焦点现已转向本 周即将公布的薪资增长和家庭支出数据，这些关键指标将成为判断日本经济复苏力度的重要依据。分析 人士指出，若6月薪资增速和消费支出数据表现强劲，可能重燃市场对日本央行政策转向的预期，从而 为持续承压的日元提供支撑。在当前环境下，日本国内经济数据表现将成为影响日元短期走势的决定性 因素，投资者需密切关注相关数据发布及日本央行的政策表态。 周一（8月4日）亚盘早盘，美元兑日元上涨，目前交投于147附近，截止北京时间11:08分，美元兑日元 报价147.67，上涨0.21%，上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为147.36。近期日元兑美元汇率持续走弱，市场 对美日贸易协议能否有效提振日本经济持谨慎态度。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese economy is experiencing a "moderate recovery," supported by positive economic data and a new US-Japan trade agreement that reduces macroeconomic uncertainty [1] Economic Indicators - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently around 147.60, up 0.16% from the previous close of 147.36 [1] - June economic data shows industrial output increased by 1.7% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations [1] - Retail sales rose by 2.0% year-on-year, indicating resilience in domestic consumption [1] Market Sentiment - Positive economic data has strengthened market confidence in the ongoing recovery of the Japanese economy, bolstering expectations for future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1] - The yen has rebounded significantly from recent lows against the dollar, supported by the economic outlook [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the recovery trend continues, the Bank of Japan may initiate a normalization of monetary policy by the end of the year, providing further upward momentum for the yen [1] Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY momentum has slightly shifted to a bearish outlook; if it falls below 147.00, the next support level is at 145.85, followed by the convergence of the 100-day and 50-day simple moving averages at 145.71 [1] - A break below this level could test the 144.00 mark [1]

周一（8月4日）亚盘早盘，美元兑日元上涨，目前交投于147附近，截止北京时间11:43分，美元兑日元 报价147.67，上涨0.21%，上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为147.36。汇丰银行经济学家在最新研究报告中 指出，美日贸易协定的及时达成有望为日本央行货币政策正常化进程扫除障碍。 报告分析认为，该协议有效缓解了日本经济面临的外部不确定性，为经济增长提供了更稳定的环境。基 于这一积极变化，汇丰预计日本央行将在10月政策会议上加息25个基点，将政策利率上调至0.75%。经 济学家强调，2023年日本经济表现略好于预期，这为央行推进加息提供了更充分的经济基本面支撑。报 告同时指出，随着贸易环境改善和国内需求保持韧性，日本央行在论证进一步加息必要性时将处于更有 利的位置。不过，汇丰也提醒，全球经济增长放缓和金融市场波动仍是影响日本央行决策的重要变量， 投资者需密切关注未来几个月的关键经济数据表现。 美元兑日元必须持续突破148.80–149.40阻力区间，才能为涨向151.00整数关口和61.8%斐波那契回撤位 （151.60）铺路。突破该水平后，该货币对可能进一步上探153.15。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the complex tenure of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting his balancing act between traditional monetary policy and innovative approaches during unprecedented economic challenges [1][3][4] - Powell's leadership is characterized by significant policy shifts, including the introduction of unlimited quantitative easing and emergency interest rate cuts in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which helped restore market confidence [4][5] - The restructuring of the monetary policy framework under Powell's leadership emphasizes inclusive employment and an average inflation target, marking a departure from previous static inflation goals [5][6] Group 2 - The article notes that Powell faced intense political pressure, particularly from former President Trump, which tested the independence of the Federal Reserve [13][14] - Powell's decisions during the pandemic, while initially effective, led to significant misjudgments regarding inflation, resulting in a rapid increase in interest rates that had widespread economic repercussions [9][10] - The article highlights the structural issues exacerbated by Powell's policies, including wealth inequality and the disproportionate impact of inflation on lower-income groups [10][11] Group 3 - The article concludes with a reflection on Powell's legacy, suggesting that his tenure will be remembered for both its bold innovations and the costly errors made in responding to inflationary pressures [8][12][18] - The potential for a new Federal Reserve chair to be appointed before Powell's term ends indicates a shift in leadership dynamics that could influence future monetary policy [18]

全球经济的同步叙事已然落幕。随着各国从疫情后的通胀冲击中走出，世界主要中央银行正 踏上截然不同的政策路径，昔日一致对外的紧缩阵线已不复存在。这种由各国国内经济状况 主导的"大分化"，正深刻重塑全球资本流动、汇率及资产配置的未来图景。 高位观望的"暂停者"：美欧央行的如履薄冰 在当前全球货币政策的棋局中，美联储（Fed）和欧洲中央银行（ECB）占据了相似的战略位置：它们 都已将利率提升至被认为是"限制性"的水平，并暂时按下了"暂停"键。 它们的目标一致：在不引发严重经济衰退的前提下，确保通胀被彻底驯服。然而，相似的立场之下，两 者面临的挑战和内部的博弈却各有侧重，使得它们的"暂停"显得如履薄冰。 美联储：鹰派立场下的内部分歧 美联储在7月的会议上将联邦基金利率维持在了 4.25%至4.50% 的区间，这标志着其紧缩周期的平台 期。主席鲍威尔的公开表态延续了"更高更久"（Higher for Longer）的鹰派基调，强调抗击通胀的斗争 尚未结束。 他指出，尽管整体通胀已从峰值回落，但服务业通胀（特别是剔除住房的核心服务通胀）依然顽固，劳 动力市场的紧张状况也未完全缓解。这构成了美联储维持高利率的核心理由。 然而 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Japan is likely to initiate interest rate hikes by the end of 2023 due to persistent inflation exceeding expectations [1] - Recent inflation performance has led the Bank of Japan to significantly raise its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 2.5% during the July policy meeting [1] - The removal of the downward risk language in inflation forecasts indicates a significant increase in confidence among decision-makers regarding sustained price increases [1] Group 2 - A virtuous cycle of wage growth and inflation is forming, with structural changes in corporate pricing behavior reinforcing the basis for monetary policy normalization [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise the policy rate from the current -0.1% at the October policy meeting, marking the first rate hike since 2007 [1] - The central bank is anticipated to adopt a gradual tightening path while closely monitoring the potential impact of economic slowdowns in the US and Europe on Japan's external demand [1] Group 3 - The technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY has reached a high near previous peaks, with short-term upward momentum approaching overbought territory [2] - The MACD indicator is consistently above the zero line, with the fast line (DIFF) at 0.908, higher than the slow line (DEA) at 0.784 [2]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the policy interest rate at around 0.5%, with unanimous agreement from the nine members of the monetary policy meeting [1] - The Bank of Japan raised its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year due to rising food prices, which is seen as a reason for potential future interest rate hikes [2] - The core CPI in Japan reached a year-on-year growth of 3.7% in May, the highest since January 2023, but decreased to 3.3% in June, still above the 2% target [2] Group 2 - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that future interest rate decisions will not solely depend on the increase in consumer inflation expectations, which are mainly influenced by rising food prices [3] - The current monetary policy faces dual pressures: persistent inflation and financial stability risks, complicating the normalization process [5] - The increase in policy rates could significantly raise the government's debt servicing costs, with a 1% rise in rates potentially increasing repayment costs by 3.7 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2025 [5] Group 3 - The recent depreciation of the yen against the dollar, falling to 150 for the first time since April, did not overly concern the Bank of Japan, indicating a stable outlook for the yen [5] - HSBC's research report highlights the evolving political landscape in Japan, which adds uncertainty to the Bank of Japan's normalization path and may lead to fluctuations in the yen [6] - The expectation is that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates once in October 2025, with potential dollar weakness in the fourth quarter influencing the USD/JPY exchange rate [6]

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has deteriorated, with Trump threatening to dismiss Powell amid budget overruns on the Fed's headquarters renovation. Powell's future as chairman is uncertain, with potential successors being discussed [1][9]. Group 1: Powell's Tenure and Achievements - Powell, the only Federal Reserve chairman without an economics background, has navigated a politically polarized environment, demonstrating exceptional balance and survival skills [2]. - Under Powell's leadership, the Fed implemented significant monetary policy innovations, including a shift to a framework prioritizing "broadly inclusive maximum employment" and the introduction of "average inflation targeting" [4]. - The Fed's response to the COVID-19 pandemic included unprecedented measures such as emergency rate cuts and unlimited quantitative easing, which helped restore market confidence and led to a rapid economic recovery [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges and Criticisms - Powell faced criticism for initially downplaying inflation signals in 2021, which led to a delayed response and aggressive rate hikes in 2022, resulting in significant market turmoil [6][7]. - The Fed's unconventional monetary policies exacerbated wealth inequality, benefiting the top 1% while negatively impacting lower-income groups [7]. - Powell's conservative stance on cryptocurrency regulation has drawn criticism, particularly as the Fed has restricted banks from supporting decentralized token issuance [8]. Group 3: Potential Successors - Trump is expected to announce a nominee for Powell's successor soon, with potential candidates including Kevin Walsh, Kevin Hassett, and current Fed governor Chris Waller, each with distinct policy perspectives [1][9][10]. - Walsh is known for his hawkish stance and criticism of Powell's pandemic-era decisions, while Hassett has a strong understanding of White House dynamics but is committed to Fed independence [10][12]. - Waller, who has been influential within the Fed, has shifted from a hawkish to a more dovish stance recently, aligning with Trump's views on economic management [12][13].

Group 1 - The auction of two-year Japanese government bonds achieved the highest demand level since October last year, indicating a significant increase in investor participation amid rising short-term bond yields [1] - The average bid-to-cover ratio for this auction reached 4.47, higher than last month's 3.90 and the 12-month average of 3.99, reflecting strong demand [1] - The tail price spread narrowed to 0.005, an improvement from the previous auction's 0.012, further indicating robust demand [1] Group 2 - Following the auction, two-year government bond prices rose, leading to a slight decrease in yields by two basis points to 0.82%, contrasting with the overall upward trend in recent short- and long-term bond yields [1] - Market pricing shows that the "risk-neutral yield," which measures future short-term interest rate expectations, has climbed to 0.7%, the highest in nearly four months, aligning with expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [4] - The probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year has increased from 57% at the beginning of the month to approximately 75% [4] Group 3 - The auction results validate market expectations for monetary policy normalization and reflect investor demand during a rising short-rate cycle [5] - Political uncertainties remain, but the recent trade agreement and clearer expectations for central bank rate hikes are driving the Japanese bond market into a new pricing phase [5]

Group 1: Japan's Economic Outlook - Tokyo's inflation has decreased in July but remains high enough to support the Bank of Japan's consideration of policy normalization [1][2] - The Japanese government’s measures to stabilize prices are starting to show effects, yet core inflation pressures in Tokyo remain elevated [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its core inflation forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, excluding energy price fluctuations [2] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Predictions - Morgan Stanley has postponed its prediction for ECB rate cuts from September to October, citing economic resilience and hopes for a US-EU tariff agreement [3] - Analysts from BNP Paribas believe that the ECB's optimistic outlook on the economic situation and potential trade agreements may lead to a pause in rate cuts [3] - High inflation and economic activity have supported the euro, with expectations that the ECB may maintain current rates unless significant economic deterioration occurs [3] Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - Barclays analysts predict that investors are unlikely to engage in large-scale dollar selling during the upcoming portfolio rebalancing at the end of the month [4] - The dollar's performance has been supported by high core inflation, resilient economic activity, and a strong labor market, despite pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve [4] - The positive momentum in US equities continues, while US bonds have underperformed, influencing investor behavior in the foreign exchange market [4]