Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Night trading of the main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a volatile trend yesterday, with the total position of coking coal remaining basically unchanged. Steel Union data indicated that the production of five major steel products remained basically unchanged this week, but the total inventory increased, mainly contributed by rebar, and the overall apparent demand decreased. The iron - making water production and the profit rate of steel mills remained basically unchanged. The seasonal increase in the downstream's pre - holiday rigid demand for replenishment can support coal prices, so it is judged that the short - term decline of the disk is limited. Future focus should be on the supply trend of coking coal, changes in iron - making water production, and the downstream replenishment rhythm [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Price and Trading Volume - For coking coal futures, the closing prices of the January, May, and September contracts on the previous day were 1367.0, 1131.5, and 1203.0 respectively, with price changes of 0.5, 2.5, and 0.0 and price change rates of 0.04%, 0.22%, and 0.00% respectively. The trading volumes were 101472, 736188, and 28258 respectively, and the positions were 3706, 521061, and 80299 respectively, with position changes of 380, 5617, and 1225 respectively [3] - For coke futures, the closing prices of the January, May, and September contracts on the previous day were 1863.0, 1688.0, and 1758.0 respectively, with price changes of - 9.0, 4.5, and - 0.5 and price change rates of - 0.48%, 0.27%, and - 0.03% respectively. The trading volumes were 63, 12490, and 523 respectively, and the positions were 122, 38116, and 1531 respectively, with position changes of 40, - 242, and 93 respectively [3] Futures Spread - For coking coal, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5 respectively, with spread changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5 respectively [3] - For coke, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83 respectively, with spread changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 respectively [3] Spot Price - The current prices of Mongolian 5 main coking coal, low - sulfur main coking coal (Linfen), low - sulfur main coking coal (Taiyuan), Tangshan first - grade coke, Jinzhong quasi - first - grade coke, and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke are 1234, 1640, 1530, 1800, 1280, and 1450 respectively, and the spot price changes are all 0 [3] Policy Information - People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that in 2026, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, and multiple monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity, so that the growth of social financing scale and money supply matches the expected targets of economic growth and price levels. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The central bank will also do a good job in the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost [3]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw collective gains on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.01%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 26,914.89 billion yuan. The leading sectors included building materials, national defense, and petrochemicals, while beauty care, banking, and pharmaceuticals lagged behind [2][8] - The People's Bank of China, represented by Governor Pan Gongsheng, indicated that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue in 2026, with room for further cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates to maintain ample liquidity [3][9] - In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a decline in growth rate for seven consecutive months [4][10] Market Performance - The closing figures for major indices are as follows: Shanghai Composite Index at 4,122.58 (+0.14%), Shenzhen Component Index at 14,327.05 (+0.50%), and ChiNext Index at 3,328.65 (+1.01%). The total trading volume was 26,914.89 billion yuan [5][8] - Internationally, the Dow Jones rose by 0.63%, S&P 500 by 0.55%, and Nasdaq by 0.91% [5][8] Important News - The six major state-owned banks announced the implementation of a fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans, allowing some high-quality customers to enjoy interest rates as low as 2%, which is even lower than current housing loan rates [3][9] - The December consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year, slightly up from 0.7% in November [10] Retail Sector Insights - In December, the retail sales of consumer goods totaled 45,136 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, reflecting a decline of 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous year [10][11] - Online retail sales for the year reached 159,722 billion yuan, growing by 8.6% year-on-year, accounting for 31.87% of total retail sales [12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverage, social services, and retail trade, particularly highlighting opportunities in the liquor industry, consumer goods, and tourism sectors due to anticipated policy support for domestic consumption [13]

山东还完善首贷培植服务体系，指导金融机构建立首次贷款中心和首贷网点，组建首贷培植储备库，围 绕首贷、中期流贷、信用贷、续贷等关键环节优化"四贷联动"集成服务体系，推动贷款覆盖面持续扩 大。代金奎说："剔除重复后，去年12月末，全省共有31万户企业主体得到贷款支持，比年初增加3.3万 户。" （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经济南1月23日电（记者贾云鹏）1月23日，中国人民银行山东省分行举行2025年山东省金融统计 数据新闻发布会。记者从会上获悉，2025年，山东金融运行呈现"量稳、价降、面扩"的良好态势，为全 省加快打造北方地区经济重要增长极营造了良好的货币金融环境。 "我们精准传导适度宽松的货币政策，深化金融'五篇大文章'山东实践，稳步提升对重点领域的信贷支 持力度。"中国人民银行山东省分行调查统计处二级调研员代金奎说，从金融总量看，去年12月末，山 东省社会融资规模、本外币贷款、本外币存款余额分别为25.9万亿元、16.3万亿元、19.0万亿元，同比 分别增长9.0%、8.2%、9.1%，增速分别快于全国0.7个、2.0个、0.1个百分点。 同时，融资成本稳中有降。山东第一时间落实政策利率、公积金贷款利率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to support economic stability and growth, particularly in key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - In 2025, the social financing scale increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the broad money supply grew by 8.5%, both significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate [3]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans was approximately 3.1% in December, reflecting a low financing cost environment [3]. - The PBOC plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5]. Group 2: Structural Policy Measures - The PBOC has introduced various structural monetary policy tools, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools and an increase in the re-lending quota for agricultural and small enterprises to 4.35 trillion yuan [6]. - The PBOC aims to optimize the design and management of structural monetary policy tools to better support major strategies and key areas [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Market Stability - The exchange rate of the renminbi against a basket of currencies has remained stable, and the bond market has developed healthily, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.8% to 1.9% [4]. - The PBOC emphasizes maintaining the stability of the financial market and managing expectations effectively [6]. Group 4: Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC is focused on constructing a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to support high-quality financial development [7]. - Key areas of focus include monitoring systemic financial risks, expanding the coverage of macro-prudential management, and enhancing the standardization and effectiveness of macro-prudential management tools [13][14]. Group 5: Support for Key Sectors - The PBOC has allocated 500 billion yuan for consumer services and elderly care re-lending, and increased the quota for technology innovation and technical transformation re-lending to 1.2 trillion yuan [18][19]. - The PBOC is enhancing support for SMEs by increasing re-lending quotas and improving financing accessibility for small and private enterprises [19][21].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to enhance financial services for high-quality economic development while implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support stable growth and financial market stability by 2025 [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - In 2025, the social financing scale is expected to grow by 8.3%, and the broad money supply is projected to increase by 8.5%, both significantly exceeding nominal GDP growth [2]. - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2][3]. Structural Policy Measures - The PBOC plans to optimize the design and management of structural monetary policy tools, enhancing support for key strategic areas and weak links [3]. - Specific measures include lowering interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and increasing the quotas for rural and small enterprise loans [3][10]. Financial Market Stability - The PBOC emphasizes maintaining the stability of the financial market, managing expectations, and ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable [4][5]. - The bond market is expected to develop healthily, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.8% to 1.9% [2]. Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC aims to construct a comprehensive macro-prudential management system, focusing on the relationship between macroeconomic operations and financial risks [6][7]. - Key tasks include enhancing monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks and expanding the coverage of macro-prudential management to new areas such as internet finance [6]. International Financial Cooperation - The PBOC is committed to advancing global financial governance reforms and international financial cooperation, promoting a fair and inclusive global financial governance system [7][8]. - Efforts include enhancing the cross-border payment system for RMB and participating in international macro policy coordination [8]. Support for Key Sectors - The PBOC will guide financial institutions to support domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, with specific measures to enhance consumer finance and support for technology and small businesses [9][10]. - A dedicated 500 billion yuan service for consumption and elderly care loans will be established, alongside increased quotas for technology innovation loans [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price showed a volatile upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 24.16% and an amplitude of 27.29%. As of January 23, 2026, the closing price of the main contract was 181,520 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of the macro - environment, the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, the lithium ore quotation continued to strengthen, and smelters had sufficient raw material inventories and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The supply of lithium salt plants increased with the rise in lithium prices, but as the long holiday approached, some smelters might enter the maintenance period, and production might decrease. The downstream demand for pre - holiday stockpiling increased, and the spot market trading sentiment improved [7]. - The overall lithium carbonate fundamentals are expected to gradually shift to a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly increased demand, and industrial inventories will continue to decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a volatile upward trend on the weekly line, with a price increase of 24.16% and an amplitude of 27.29%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 181,520 yuan/ton [7]. - **Outlook**: The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. The lithium ore price is strong, smelters have sufficient raw materials. Supply may decrease as some smelters enter maintenance before the holiday, while downstream pre - holiday stockpiling demand is rising [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Lightly - position short - term long positions at low prices, and control risks [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of January 23, 2026, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 181,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 35,320 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,880 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11,540 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 23, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 171,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 10,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22,320 yuan/ton [18]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of January 23, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 1,935 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 6.9628, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1% [22]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of January 20, 2026, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 16,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,850 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 7,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 750 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,933.47 tons (8.77%), and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The monthly export volume was 911.898 tons, a month - on - month increase of 152.66 tons (20.11%), and a year - on - year increase of 45.97%. The monthly output was 56,820 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,840 tons (5.26%), and a year - on - year increase of 50.08%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [33]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of January 23, 2026, the average price was 140,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 233,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,100 tons (0.91%), and a year - on - year increase of 44.19% [36]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 52,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5,300 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 269,330 tons, a month - on - month increase of 440 tons (0.16%), and a year - on - year increase of 32.48%. The monthly operating rate was 60%, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 6% [39]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 60,430 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,090 tons (1.77%), and a year - on - year increase of 16.26%. The monthly operating rate was 50%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 continued to strengthen [44]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,030 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 180 tons (1.76%), and a year - on - year increase of 1.52%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 52,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [49]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 280 tons (1.74%), and a year - on - year increase of 118.72%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [52]. - **Application Side** - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of December 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 47.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 7.01%. The monthly production was 1,718,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 8.62%; the monthly sales were 1,710,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 6.2%. The cumulative export volume was 2.615 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 103.66% [55][59]. 3.5 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium or discount of the synthetic underlying is - 0.41, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [64].

| | | 20260123申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | JL | | | | | | J | | | 1月 | | | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | 前1日收盘价 | 1367.0 | | 1131.5 | 1203.0 | 1863.0 | 1688.0 | 1758. 0 | | 前2日收盘价 | 1366. 5 | | 1129.0 | 1203.0 | 1872. 0 | 1683. 5 | 1758. 5 | | 煮跌 | Eil 0. 5 | | 2.5 | 0. 0 | -9.0 | 4.5 | -0.5 | | 煮跌幅 | 0. 04% સ્ત | | 0. 22% | 0. 00% | -0. 48% | 0. 27% | -0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive macro policy to achieve qualitative and effective economic growth while maintaining social stability, as highlighted by President Xi Jinping [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been implementing a moderately loose monetary policy since last year, focusing on supporting stable growth and high-quality development of the real economy and financial markets [2][3]. - In 2024, existing policies will continue to play a role, and new monetary policies will be introduced in 2025 to support economic stability and financial market operations [2]. - The PBOC aims to maintain liquidity and ensure that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price expectations, with room for further interest rate cuts [3]. Group 2: Structural Policy Measures - The PBOC will optimize structural monetary policy tools to enhance support for key strategic areas and weak links, including a recent reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [3]. - The PBOC will also focus on maintaining stable financial markets and managing expectations, ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable [3]. Group 3: Financial Support for Key Areas - The PBOC plans to enhance financial services for high-quality economic development by increasing support for consumption, technology innovation, and small and micro enterprises [8][9]. - A special fund of 500 billion yuan will be allocated for consumer services and elderly care, while the quota for technology innovation loans will be increased to 1.2 trillion yuan [8]. - The PBOC will also increase the re-lending and re-discount quotas for small and micro enterprises by 500 billion yuan, focusing on supporting private enterprises [9]. Group 4: Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC aims to build a robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework to support high-quality financial development during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5]. - Key initiatives include enhancing risk monitoring, expanding the scope of macro-prudential management, and improving the legal framework for macro-prudential policies [6][7]. Group 5: International Financial Cooperation - The PBOC will actively engage in global financial governance reforms and international cooperation, promoting a fair and inclusive global financial governance system [13]. - Efforts will include deepening financial sector openness, advancing the internationalization of the RMB, and enhancing cross-border payment systems [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic outlook for China in 2026, emphasizing the need for effective qualitative and quantitative growth, and identifies potential investment opportunities and market trends for investors. Monetary Policy - The current domestic interest rates are at historical lows, with room for further reduction. A small rate cut of 0.25-0.5 percentage points is likely in early 2026 to alleviate cost pressures and support long-term liquidity [4][5] - The People's Bank of China may lower policy rates by 0.1-0.3 percentage points to reduce social financing costs and stimulate consumption and investment [5] - Credit growth is expected to moderately recover, with government investment projects and policy financial tools supporting long-term loans in sectors like new energy and infrastructure [5] Market Trends - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are anticipated to continue a trend of oscillating upward, driven by corporate profit improvements, macro policy easing, and long-term capital inflows [6][7] - The government is expected to implement measures to boost market confidence, including promoting the use of policy tools, guiding institutional investments, and enhancing the registration system for new listings [7] Bond Market - The bond market is projected to maintain a low-interest, high-volatility environment, with 10-year government bond yields expected to range between 1.6% and 1.9% [8] - Credit bond issuance is anticipated to grow steadily, particularly in short-duration high-grade credit bonds, with yields expected between 2.0% and 2.5% [8] Investment Opportunities - Future technology innovation policies will focus on breakthroughs in key areas such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence, with significant investment opportunities in sectors like semiconductors, new energy, and quantum technology [9] - The article highlights the potential for investment in strategic emerging industries, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [9] Global Market Trends - The global economic landscape is transitioning from high volatility to a new equilibrium, with significant geopolitical tensions and economic challenges in developed economies [9][10] - The article notes that the U.S. stock market may enter a phase of high valuation and weak growth, with potential risks in the AI sector and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [10] Currency and Commodities - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate in a two-way fluctuation, supported by domestic economic conditions and a weakening dollar [10] - Gold prices are projected to experience high volatility with an overall upward trend, while silver is expected to be more volatile due to its industrial applications [11][12] - Oil prices are likely to decline initially before recovering, with an average price forecasted between $60 and $70 per barrel in 2026 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations [2]. - The PBOC plans to maintain ample liquidity and align social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations, indicating room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates this year [2]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be optimized to enhance support for major strategies and key areas, with recent policy adjustments already made to improve these tools [2]. Financial Market Stability - The PBOC aims to maintain stable financial market operations and manage expectations, ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable level [3]. - There will be a focus on strengthening supervision across various markets, including bonds, foreign exchange, and gold, while establishing mechanisms to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific scenarios [3]. Monetary Policy Framework - The PBOC will optimize the monetary policy target system, reducing emphasis on quantitative targets and allowing for more effective interest rate adjustments [4]. - A market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism will be improved to enhance the flow of central bank policy rates to market rates [4]. - The PBOC will enhance the structure of monetary policy tools to better guide financial institutions in optimizing loan allocations [4]. Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC will strengthen monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, establishing a standardized and systematic framework for risk evaluation [6]. - There will be an expansion of macro-prudential management coverage to include new areas such as financial markets and internet finance [6]. - The PBOC aims to improve the legal and governance mechanisms for macro-prudential management, coordinating it with monetary policy and micro-prudential regulation [6]. Support for Key Areas - The PBOC will enhance policy support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises, with specific measures to improve financial services for these sectors [7]. - A dedicated fund of 500 billion RMB will be established to support consumption and elderly care, while 1.2 trillion RMB will be allocated for technological innovation and transformation [7]. - The PBOC will increase the re-lending and re-discount quotas for small and micro enterprises, aiming to improve financing accessibility and affordability [7]. Collaboration and Coordination - The PBOC will strengthen collaboration with various government departments to enhance information sharing and service capabilities [8]. - There will be an emphasis on improving the internal incentive mechanisms of financial institutions and enhancing the use of financial technology [8]. - Coordination between monetary and fiscal policies will be prioritized to amplify the effects of financial support [8]. International Financial Cooperation - The PBOC will actively engage in global financial governance reforms and international cooperation, promoting a fair and inclusive global financial governance system [9]. - Efforts will be made to deepen financial sector openness and support the internationalization of the RMB [9]. - The PBOC will participate in international financial governance and cooperation, focusing on macro policy coordination and the development of international financial regulatory rules [10].