中国资产重估

Search documents
中金公司李求索:机会大于风险,外资对中国资产的兴趣会继续抬升
券商中国· 2025-05-02 08:01
以下是采访实录: 编者按:在当前全球局势中,地缘冲突频繁,贸易保护主义甚嚣尘上。美国近期出台的所谓"对 等关税",本质是贸易单边主义行径,严重冲击国际经贸秩序,给全球经济前景蒙上阴影。 中国凭借完整产业链与庞大内需市场的坚实底气,以强硬姿态有力反制。如今,中国经济彰显出 强大韧性与潜力:新质生产力加速形成,传统产业转型升级稳步推进,政策层面大力推动扩大内 需战略,持续为市场注入活力。 在此背景下,如何把握中国资产重估带来的广泛而重大的投资机遇?证券时报特推出"中国资产 重估"专栏。记者深度访谈众多国内外知名投资机构负责人、研究专家、投行领军人物和高科技 企业负责人,深入剖析重估逻辑,致力于为投资者提供兼具实效性与前瞻性的参考视角。 "今年的宏观背景可以概括为'外部有风险,内部会应对'。"近日,中金公司研究部首席国内策略分 析师李求索在接受券商中国记者专访时指出,科技突破与地缘格局变化正推动中国资产估值体系重 构。 李求索强调,尽管来自外部的不确定性短期内扰动市场,但中国资产具备多重利好条件。在他看来,当前中国 资产机会大于风险,预期海外投资者对中国资产的兴趣将逐步抬升。与此同时,他认为下半年A股表现或优于 上 ...
“成绩单”揭晓:2024年沪市主板公司合计营收49.57万亿元 净利润4.35万亿元
Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang· 2025-05-01 04:53
Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board companies demonstrated strong resilience and stability in 2024, achieving a total operating revenue of 49.57 trillion yuan and a net profit of 4.35 trillion yuan, supported by a series of incremental policies [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the total operating revenue of the main board companies was 49.57 trillion yuan, maintaining stability year-on-year; net profit reached 4.35 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [2]. - Approximately 80% of companies reported profits, with 40% experiencing year-on-year net profit growth; over 230 companies saw net profit increases exceeding 30%, and 78 companies turned losses into profits [2]. - The annual trend showed a decline in net profit of 1% in the first half, followed by a significant recovery with a 5% increase in the second half; operating cash flow improved notably, with a 15% year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter [2]. Group 2: Stability and Growth - Over the past five years, the main board's operating revenue and net profit have both seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% [3]. - A total of 744 "long-distance running" companies achieved positive compound growth in both revenue and net profit over five years, contributing nearly 70% of total revenue and over 80% of total profit [3]. - Key sectors such as finance, energy, construction, and transportation played a significant role, contributing over 80% of profits, while emerging sectors like automotive, biomedicine, and intelligent manufacturing showed a net profit CAGR of 10% over three years [3]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - In the past decade, the proportion of companies in emerging industries such as electronics, communications, biomedicine, and automotive has risen to 40%, with the number of firms in sectors like semiconductors and new energy vehicles doubling [4]. - Emerging industries contributed over 40% of net profits in manufacturing and services, with a net profit CAGR of 11%, outperforming traditional industries by 5 percentage points [4]. - In 2024, industries such as electronics, communications, and automotive saw net profit growth of 11%, 6%, and 4% respectively, driven by trends in AI technology, cloud computing, and electrification [4]. Group 4: R&D Investment - In 2024, R&D investment by companies on the main board exceeded 1 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of national R&D expenditure [5]. - The main board's entities invested approximately 920 billion yuan in R&D, with 723 companies investing over 100 million yuan [5]. - Companies with R&D investments exceeding 1 billion yuan and a CAGR above 5% over three years saw average net profit growth outperforming the overall level by 3.6 to 6.1 percentage points [5]. Group 5: Dividends and Shareholder Returns - In 2024, 1,259 companies on the main board announced cash dividends, with a total dividend amount of 1.77 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [7]. - The overall dividend payout ratio reached 39%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points year-on-year, with 1,041 companies distributing over 30% of their profits as dividends [7]. - A trend of multiple dividends within a year emerged, with 366 companies implementing interim dividends totaling 574.9 billion yuan, marking a significant increase [7]. Group 6: Share Buybacks and Support Measures - In 2024, the number of disclosed share buyback plans reached 400, and important shareholder buyback plans reached 380, both doubling year-on-year [8]. - The total amount for proposed buybacks and increases reached 843 billion yuan and 537 billion yuan respectively, showing significant growth [8]. - Since the introduction of special loans in September 2024, 205 companies disclosed buyback plans utilizing these loans, with a total loan amount exceeding 52 billion yuan [8].
中金公司李求索: 外部有风险内部会应对 海外投资者对中国资产兴趣逐步抬升
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-04-29 21:00
Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic backdrop is characterized as "external risks, internal responses," with technology breakthroughs and geopolitical changes driving the restructuring of China's asset valuation system [1] Group 1: China Asset Valuation - The narrative of China's asset revaluation continues, despite the impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy, which has caused global asset volatility [2] - The core of China's asset revaluation narrative lies in technology breakthroughs and geopolitical changes, with AI technology development acting as a catalyst [3] - Current valuations of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are relatively low, with the CSI 300 index's dynamic P/E ratio below 11 times, which is approximately 0.8 to 0.9 standard deviations below the historical average [3][4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The current dividend yield of the CSI 300 is about 3.5%, indicating a historically high relative attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds [4] - The long-term process of China's asset revaluation is influenced by external uncertainties, with a focus on how these uncertainties may shift to certainties, potentially creating opportunities [5] - The trend of foreign capital entering A-shares continues, with net buying trends observed even during periods of external risk [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Southbound capital has shown increasing interest in Hong Kong stocks, with net buying trends expected to continue due to attractive valuations and the benefits from China's AI technology breakthroughs [9] - The proportion of southbound capital in trading has exceeded 30%, indicating a growing influence on Hong Kong's pricing power [9] - The overall market conditions suggest that A-shares may perform better in the second half of the year compared to the first half [10]
超七成主动权益基金加仓港股,南向资金扫货不停
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 11:51
近年来,随着港股市场的回暖,公募主动权益类基金(包含普通股票型、灵活配置型、偏股混合型、平 衡混合型基金,下同)进一步加重相关持仓。Wind数据显示,从最近的5个季度来看,主动权益类基金 持有的港股市值呈现持续攀升的态势。 港股 "黄金配置期" 来临? 今年以来,港股市场受到各路资金的热烈关注。今年一季度,主动权益基金的持仓规模与配置比例双双 刷新阶段性高点。其中,超七成产品加码港股,上百只基金单季仓位提升超两成,最高超40个百分点。 同时,即使前期涨势暂歇,南向资金对港股市场的"扫货"模式仍在继续,月内净买入额超过1580亿元, 一举刷新年内纪录,用真金白银印证港股吸引力。在业内人士看来,即使港股市场承压,但仍有配置性 价比。 "从中长期来看,预计港股估值中枢将在震荡中上行,港股市场中具备长期投资价值的科技或依然是 2025年行情主线。"恒生前海港股通精选混合基金经理邢程对第一财经表示,当前宏观环境的不确定性 加强,港股在外部冲击下波动可能加大,但从积极的角度来看,频繁变化的政策可能已经趋于稳定。 港股平均仓位创五年新高 回调后配置价值凸显 今年一季度,主动权益类基金持有的港股市值再度增加982.53亿元至 ...
港股三姐妹,爆了
盐财经· 2025-04-29 06:56
投资界 . 清科创业旗下创业与投资资讯平台 以下文章来源于投资界 ,作者杨继云 本文转载自投资界 值班编辑 | 宝珠 视觉 | 顾芗 那是3月5日这天,老铺黄金以600港元/股的价格超越腾讯,成为港股新一任"股王"。没有人会想到这一 幕:老铺黄金自去年6月上市,此后股价一路飞涨,至今涨幅已经超过20倍。 "爆赚,准备原地退休了"。早早上车的人难掩喜悦,这样的分享帖子遍布社交媒体。身边消费投资人则 拍断了大腿: "当初没有投进去。" 这是港股消费公司的一缕缩影。如你所见,资本市场对蜜雪冰城、泡泡玛特报以同样热情——他们都涨 幅惊人。至此,泡泡玛特、蜜雪冰城、老铺黄金一起组成了"港股三姐妹"。 "现在有合适的消费公司赶紧推去港股。"目睹几家消费公司的罕见暴涨,一位头部VC投资人如是喊话。 嘉御资本创始合伙人兼董事长卫哲则向投资界分享他的一个观点:"中国资产重估始于港股,港股重估 始于消费公司"。 三姐妹崛起 港股三家千亿消费公司 港股三姐妹,今年密集地出现在投资人聊天之间。 老铺黄金,始于湖南岳阳人徐高明——他于2004年进军消费级黄金产品市场,后来在北京创办老铺黄 金。他将黄金从"克重计价"的实用主义中剥离,把 ...
兴业证券张忆东:中国资产正处于重估的时代 短期逢低布局科技、新消费、黄金军工
智通财经网· 2025-04-28 23:17
智通财经APP获悉,4月28日,兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东在2025年度中国投资人峰会上分享 了对资本市场的看法。他表示,国际新秩序的序幕已经拉开,中长期来看,中国资产大有可为,正是重 估的时代。短期建议逢低布局战略性资产:科技、新消费、黄金军工。 张忆东称,总体来说,在中短期3到6个月的维度来说,依然会面临着很多地缘政治的不确定性,以及关 税政策的一些扰动。而且贸易政策带来的不确定性不会很快结束。 他表示,贸易战没有赢家,美国经济乃至全球经济都会受到贸易摩擦的影响。2025年美股很可能走出典 型的美股熊市,当然通常美股熊市调整的时间比较短,往往1到2年,甚至很多时候就是一年以内,但比 较急速、比较猛烈。 谈及中国资本市场,张忆东表示,内因才是决定中国资本市场重估的核心变量,新秩序正在悄然拉开帷 幕,而中国是新秩序全球治理新秩序的受益者,对中国看多。 他认为中国资产中长期大有可为,短期只是因为外因所导致的扰动。他认为下个阶段,中国构建双循环 经济发展的格局将会落到实处,从而成为世界经济增长的稳定锚。 同时他也指,中国资产重估是一个中长期逻辑。从中短期应对外部的一些冲击,政策上面有很多的空 间,会择机用好 ...
港股三姐妹,爆了
投资界· 2025-04-28 08:07
港股消费爆发。 作者 I 杨继云 报道 I 投资界PEdaily 那是3月5日这天,老铺黄金以600港元/股的价格超越腾讯,成为港股新一任"股王"。没 有人会想到这一幕:老铺黄金自去年6月上市,此后股价一路飞涨,至今涨幅已经超过2 0 倍。 "爆赚,准备原地退休了"。早早上车的人难掩喜悦,这样的分享帖子遍布社交媒体。身 边消费投资人则拍断了大腿: "当初没有投进去。" 这是港股消费公司的一缕缩影。如你所见,资本市场对蜜雪冰城、泡泡玛特报以同样热情 ——他们都涨幅惊人。至此, 泡泡玛特、蜜雪冰城、老铺黄金一起组成了"港股三姐妹" 。 "现在有合适的消费公司赶紧推去港股。"目睹几家消费公司的罕见暴涨,一位头部VC投 资人如是喊话。嘉御资本创始合伙人兼董事长卫哲则向投资界分享他的一个观点:"中国 资产重估始于港股,港股重估始于消费公司"。 三姐妹崛起 港股三家千亿消费公司 港股三姐妹,今年密集地出现在投资人聊天之间。 老铺黄金,始于湖南岳阳人徐高明——他于200 4年进军消费级黄金产品市场,后来在北 京创办老铺黄金。他将黄金从"克重计价"的实用主义中剥离,把黄金卖成奢侈品,万元 以上的产品贡献了近9 0%营收,由此 ...
红利板块逆市活跃!红利低波ETF泰康(560150)盘中涨近1%,近半年规模、份额增长显著
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 03:32
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and growth of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF Taikang (560150), which saw a near 1% increase in a bearish market, with significant gains in its tracked index and constituent stocks [1] - As of April 25, the Dividend Low Volatility ETF Taikang (560150) experienced a growth of 220 million yuan in scale and an increase of 17.9 million shares over the past six months, indicating substantial growth [1] - The index tracked by the ETF, the CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index (H30269), selects 50 securities characterized by good liquidity, continuous dividends, moderate dividend payout ratios, positive growth in earnings per share, and low volatility, reflecting the overall performance of high dividend and low volatility securities [1] Group 2 - Longcheng Securities suggests that from an asset allocation perspective, attention should be paid to the dividend sector, emphasizing the price patterns of major asset classes under economic cycles [1] - Guohai Securities indicates that the current downward trend in the ten-year government bond yield, combined with the impact of U.S. tariffs on market sentiment, is likely to enhance the focus on dividend assets, presenting potential investment opportunities [1][2]
市值管理与投资者保护并重 筑牢资本市场发展基石
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-04-24 21:04
专家评审会是"天马奖"活动的重要环节。中国上市公司投资者关系管理天马奖评选,由证券时报社主 办,是国内主流财经媒体最早聚焦资本市场投资者关系管理领域的评选活动。自创办以来已成功举办了 十五届。天马奖致力于用专业提升上市公司投资者关系水平,用匠心助力上市公司展现投资价值,表彰 在上市公司投资和管理工作中表现出色的企业或个人。 本届评选活动上线后受到市场高度关注,活动吸引了2100家上市公司参与自荐,超1600多万的公众参与 网络投票,刷新纪录。后续,主办方将依据评选流程对获奖公司进行严格评审,并适时发布榜单。 (文章来源:证券时报) 多位参会评委一致认为,市值管理的核心是提高上市公司质量,只有基本面优异的公司,才能更好地吸 引长期资本的关注和投资。中国上市公司协会国际合作部副总监常迪力表示,提高上市公司质量是市值 管理的核心,这是与"伪市值管理"的本质区别。中国建筑原董事会秘书薛克庆强调市值管理不是单纯的 股价管理,更应该关注企业的可持续健康发展,着力提升中长期质量效益。华熙生物董秘李亦争也强 调,提升上市公司的质量是吸引中长期资金入市的重要条件之一。 隆基绿能董秘刘晓东呼吁,市值管理不需要过于强调手段,而是要 ...
黄燕铭正式告别国泰海通;东方财富证券上市证券做市交易业务资格获批 | 券商基金早参
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-04-22 01:04
Group 1 - Huang Yanming officially leaves Guotai Junan Securities, potentially joining Dongfang Securities as the head of the research institute, bringing extensive experience and industry background that may enhance Dongfang Securities' strategic vision and research capabilities [1] - The departure of Huang Yanming indicates an intensifying talent flow within the industry, which could optimize the competitive landscape among brokerage firms and improve overall service levels [1] Group 2 - Dongfang Caifu Securities has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for its market-making trading business for listed securities, marking an expansion of its business scope and enhancing its market competitiveness [2] - The approval requires Dongfang Caifu Securities to equip itself with necessary personnel, facilities, and systems, and to complete business registration changes within six months [2] - This qualification is expected to strengthen the company's service capabilities in the securities market and may lead to innovation in business models across the industry, positively impacting market confidence in the brokerage sector [2] Group 3 - Global funds are beginning to reallocate assets, with Chinese assets becoming a significant option amid uncertainties in the U.S. bond market, as foreign institutions maintain or slightly increase their holdings in Chinese assets [3] - The technology sector is particularly attracting global investors, with multiple tech stocks undergoing group research by foreign and private equity firms, which may lead to valuation recovery for related companies [3] - Increased foreign capital inflow is likely to enhance market activity and reveal structural opportunities within the A-share market [3] Group 4 - QDII funds are reducing their holdings in U.S. stocks while increasing positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, reflecting a cautious attitude towards U.S. equities amid global uncertainties [4] - Breakthroughs in China's technology sector are enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets, despite some recent stock adjustments, the logic for revaluation remains intact [4] - This shift in fund preferences may support the A-share technology sector and boost market confidence in Chinese assets, potentially leading to structural changes in the overall market [4]